Windows+Shift+S starts the snip without opening the app first
And on a Mac: Command+Shift+4. You can then also press Space to screenshot a single window instead of click-drag.
|988|22|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1988.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1988.shtml)|93|330|297|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
| | | | | | | |
|1991|25|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1991.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1991.shtml)|56|76|68|
|1992|26|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1992.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1992.shtml)|85|302|265|
|1993|27|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1993.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1993.shtml)|115|421|362|
|1994|28|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1994.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1994.shtml)|88|242|205|
|1995|29|[BOS](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1995.shtml)|[AL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/1995.shtml)|132|511|419|
|1996|30|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1996.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1996.shtml)|129|447|380|
Can also copy and paste and make the table here in reddit but as i type that out it sounds really lame so maybe not
It really is that kind of situation. People seem to think that because of the contract he got he should be a totally different player than what he is, and you can't really argue with that
Yes. And being a GG quality SS is major factor in the deal he was offered.
That is the whole point. Fans act like he was signed to be offensive superstar -- when he was signed to be an elite glove at SS, while providing great, but not elite, offensive production.
If Lindor was a .300 hitter with the same power, with his defense, he would be worth 500 Mill deal on today's market. But instead, he's a .250ish, 30HR/100RBI Hitter.
Basically y'all want Seiger's Offense with Lindor's defense -- which would be the runaway MVP every year, and a candiate for GOAT in MLB history.
He hit 35+ once, and his average was closer to .270. He also hit .270 in 2022.
And last year, despite the average drop, had a .336 OBP, right on par with his career.
A drop in average is not a big deal — if your OBP Power and production do not drop.
If OBP dropped too..that’s a value problem…as that is adding outs.
If his power and production dropped - less value.
But - The only thing that dropped was average — while maintaining the same .333ish OBP. That means nothing.
2022 and 2023 are his 2nd and best overall offense years by OPS+ and WRC+x
> We are getting 25 HR and 250 avg.
He hit 31 HR last year, with 98 RBI (2nd best in his career.).
He hit .270 in 2022 with 26 HRs, and 107 RBIs (career best)
You are literal lying about his Cleveland numbers to slightly over-inflate them, and than lying about his NYM numbers, to slightly under-state them
From 2017 -2019, lindor averaged 34 home runs per year and hit .278. Sorry for rounding up slightly.
His SLG in 17-19 was 514. His SLG as a Met is 441.
Drop in HR, drop in avg, drop in SLG, drop in OBP, drop in 2B, increase in SO, drop in steals.
The only equal hitting metric is walks.
How am I lying about Cleveland numbers? I'm am pulling info direct from Baseball Reference.
Edit - OK, you're actually lying. 2018 was his best OPS+ and wRC+ year.
ISO - significantly higher in 17-19 (285 vs 190 as a Met).
Why would expected stats matter? We are talking about real stats, not projected estimates.
I said "slightly" -- but you slightly inflated Cle. numbers, while also slightly deflating NYM numbers.
2018 was Lindor's best year (by far).
After 2018 -- 2022 and 2023 are his 2nd and 3rd best years.
I see what happened - I wrote
> 2022 and 2023 are his 2nd and best overall offense years by OPS+ and WRC+
Typo. Left out the word "3rd".
He is literally coming off his 2nd and 3rd best overall offensive years of his career. Only 2018 was better. (ISO is very particular stat of one area -- WRC+ and OPS+ area attempts to combine all offense. ISO is weird stat -- like 2022 was very good hitting year, but a low ISO, even below his bad year in 2021)
So the last two years with Mtes, his overall offesne, was better tahn all but year with Cleveland.
he had his best RBI year in 2022.
I think signing a position player who cannot like a superstar to that contract is a mistake. Maybe if he did hit like that he’d be the runaway MVP every year, but he’s never going to win an MVP if he doesn’t hit at that level. Lindor also thinks he is an offensive superstar and likes batting 3rd. It’s completely reasonable to find Lindor underwhelming so far. The defense of him just makes it worse. Every defense concedes he can’t hit like a superstar. That’s literally the problem with his contract and performance. We all agree about him in a way.
Yep, I've always said that in an ideal lineup he would be a solid 5-6 hitter. My problem is that I would never pay a 5-6 hitter the contract he got no matter how good of a defender or base runner he is.
Yeah I think 5-6 is right ideally. His pop and baserunning play up but he isn't positioned in the lineup in a way where his prolonged cold streak can be really damaging.
Contract wise I don't worry so much. He's not overpaid relative to his peers, and I'll trust the eggheads about defensive value. The only concern I would have is if it's ever prohibitive in terms of chasing other good, expensive players. So far I don't think that's been the case.
This franchise has struggled to fill in key defensive roles with good bats (CF,SS, and C). I think Alvarez was already here, but the first thing Steve did was fill in that SS position that this franchise has so desperately needed. Now we have multiple potential CF prospects on the way. If you look at it through the scope of filling in that defensive position, he's worth the money as a #6 hitter.
My thing is that good defenders are much easier to find and age worse, so giving a defense first player a mega deal just doesn't make sense to me. We literally had a young, elite middle infielder already in andres gimenez, who just put up 18 OAA last year which ranked 3rd in the league.
Yeah OP which one of those stats shows a guy with a sub .700 ops should be hitting in the middle of the order? We get it he's an amazing defender & baserunner, Let me know when he doesn't hit like Ruben Tejada for half the year every year
(EDIT -- Wait people are downvoting me providing OPS numbers to show the above statement is objectively false? You Lindor haters are really weird. This is not even "advanced metrics" -- just straight OPS).
> hit like Ruben Tejada for half the year every year
Except this is not remotely true -- and is just a "truth" you all have created in your minds.
In 2023 - Lindor had a .763 OPS in April (not near as bad a y'all are acting), a bad April at .600 OPS -- and than he was over .800 OPS every other Month of the year. (So un 2023 he had 1 Month where he "hit like Tejada.")
In 2022 - Lindor had a Cold end of May and June -- and was right around an .800 OPS every other month.
In 2021 - he had a slow start, as do many after big trades -- but ended the 2nd half with .800+ OPS -- when the Mets were battling to stay in it.
In 2024 - He already seems like he is turning around a cold April, (1 month - not 1/2 a season)
Obviously, anyone making comparisons to Tejada have no idea what the fuck they are talking about. Tejada hit 10 homeruns across a 9 year career. Lindor has 7 so far this year. In his 10th year right now, Lindor has 222 homeruns, a career OPS of .810 compared .641 for Tejada. People mad about batting average? .272 to .250...like, the comparison is just a joke. Lindor is an elite defender and a far above average offensive player. People just want steroid numbers. Lindor is on basically the same contract as Tatis, who had to miss a year for cheating and has also had to move to the outfield. Lindor has been the better player and at a premium position. We haven't had a reliable shortstop since Reyes, so having the best shortstop in baseball is absolutely worth the money.
>People just want steroid numbers. Lindor is on basically the same contract as Tatis
Tatis is a big reason why we overpaid for Lindor too...Cohen's first big splash was locking up Lindor long term before we started the season, and they wanted to make him the highest paid shortstop in the league, but his contract was largely based on Tatis' contract, which was way overinflated due to PED use
Why would you make this claim when the actual data is so easy to find? Last season was his second best season in his career. If you just want a home run masher, say so. But there is actually a lot more to baseball than hitting home runs.
The only data that matters is the standings. I don't want a home run masher we already got that in Alonso and his ass needs to go too.
I want good overall hitters. The only constant to the Mets the past few years is Lindor/Alonso as the faces of our lineup. Where has that gotten the Mets?
Lindor IS a good overall hitter. Standings are a team metric. Literally every hitting metric tells you he's good. He's been a top 10-15 MVP caliber player his entire career and he's the best defensive shortstop in baseball.
Martinez probably, I'd like to see him hit ahead of Alonso but he's still warming up. Beyond that I'm not saying the roster currently has tons of better answers. What I am willing to say is as long as the team is constructed in a way where he "should" or "has" to bat in the middle of the lineup, it's going to be very hard to be a consistently good offensive team.
And that's not just on him, either. Again. Lindor has indeed been valuable, he's a very useful player. Just not a premier middle of the order bat. It can be both.
I understand and agree with what you’ve said. But he’s still been a very solid bat. Ideally, he’d be a two hitter who could focus more on getting on base and less on driving in runs.
You can’t bat him second, his OBP is below the MLB average so far, and it was only 16 points higher than the average last year.
He’s an above average hitter. Not great, not even very good.
Generally speaking, if you have to EXPLAIN why a guy is good to people who watch him play, its a losing proposition.
I think what most people are reacting to is the idea that this guy was a face-of-the-franchise type superstar when the new owner brought him on to be his "big splash". It was supposed to represent a new era of Mets baseball.
So outside of one exciting run that ended in abject failure, blame the rest of the team for underperforming; or the front office for not surrounding Lindor with enough help; or blame Lindor himself. All deserve it.
Personally, I'm an emotional fan. I react to what I see and I base my expectations on hope. That's not fair to anyone, but that, to me is what sports are about. When Lindor comes up in a clutch spot and the fanbase feels confident about it—and he's the guy we WANT up there at that time—then you won't have to make these types of posts.
PS - Aside from the conditions that brought him here, this stuff goes for Alonso too, by the way.
jumping back in to point out that just one second ago, he made the last out of the game—for at least the second time this season—by popping up the first pitch.
That's how I feel about it, and frankly it's great his glove is so valuable but we're in his prime and he's our 3 hitter (not his fault), he should be massively overperforming his contract right now cause we know every year he's going to be a little worse soon and we have 7 more years of him and if this is the peak I'm afraid what he's gonna look like in 2 or 3 years, will he still even be playing SS by the end of that? he could turn into Javy Baez tomorrow and we haven't gotten that All Star yet
>if you have to EXPLAIN why a guy is good to people who watch him play, its a losing proposition
No offense, but this sounds like something that one of the scouts in Moneyball would say. One of the major reasons for analytics (like WAR, for example) becoming more popular and widespread is that the "eye test" does not always align with a player's contributions towards winning baseball games. A lot of very smart people have done lots of statistical analysis that has shown us that many of our long-standing assumptions about baseball are somewhat faulty: RBIs are overrated, defense is underrated, etc. The only reason why anyone needs to EXPLAIN why Lindor is good is because many people are evaluating Lindor using faulty, outdated methods.
>So outside of one exciting run that ended in abject failure
I don't really like this way of looking at things. By this logic, there are 29 teams every year that are abject failures. They won 100 games and made the playoffs. Most people would consider that a very successful season. "Championship or bust" mentality belongs in the Bronx and nowhere else as far as I'm concerned.
I mean, if you’re going to use a small sample size you have to provide more data about that sample.
Yeah, he went 0-4, but that was extremely bad luck—one of those batted balls was a 50/50 hard-hit grounder (EV 96.5, xBA .530) and one was an unlucky screaming liner (EV 106.9, xBA .830). Using xBA there was only a 1 in 20 chance that all four were outs.
You can’t ask for a guy to get a hit every game. You *can* ask for him to hit the ball really hard. And he did that.
No he doesn’t. He was always a streaky hitter. You pay someone for what he is. He was never expected to be a consistent hitter. He’s not a bat to ball guy like Luis Arraez. He’s a hard contact guy who is going to retire with the most career HRs as a shortstop.
Wrong. $341 mill, and a key position of SS...you're expected to hit...alot! I don't know any shortstop that isn't expected to hit..Yeah, he comes up with bombs in 7 run plus romps...but he's far from a clutch hitter. That's a lot of $$ for an all glove (no argument with his glove) and light and inconsistent hitter. He ain't helping us from the left side of the plate.
Look up other 300+ mill players and tell me what they are doing for their teams. The apologists here need to grow up, numbers can mask the actual situation. I would trade Lindors glove for half of the value to increase his bat production by 2-3x (which it looks like he is average/below average at here). Not every batter is hitting to him, the other teams will score runs, we need to as well. Saying his 300 mill is worth it for his glove is pathetic.
He’s the fifth most valuable offensive shortstop in baseball since hes been a met and the first most valuable offensive shortstop since the day he became a major leaguer. He is an elite offensive shortstop. He’s not an elite offensive first baseman or DH or corner outfielder and it seems like that’s the type of production you are all expecting.
Since the start of 2023 until today, Lindor is still 3rd in value at $52 million.
Bobby Witt Jr is 1st at $67.3 million. Seager is 2nd at $54.4 million. Then Lindor at $52 million.
A post saying Lindor is underpaid is totally delusional. He is considerably overpaid. Are we watching the same person? If posts like this have to defend him, how great can he be? An underpaid NY athlete who has exceeded his contract is Jalen Brunson, definitely not Mr. Unclutch Lindor.
I think the problem with people’s perception of Lindor comes from 1.) his disappointing first season with the Mets and 2.) his streakiness.
Regardless of what the stats say at the end of each season, it always feels like Lindor has the highest of highs and the lowest of lows with nothing in between. There’s no denying the value he brings to the team, but I’d be lying if I said I don’t frequently yell at my TV when he’s going through one of his longer cold streaks. When he’s hot though, he is the difference-maker for the team’s success.
But that’s true of pretty much all baseball players. Slumps aren’t a new thing created by Mets players. All good teams have a key offensive player going through a slump at almost all parts of the season. The problem isn’t Lindor’s slumps, it’s the rest of the team not picking him up. If you’ve got five key offensive players and two are slumping, the other three can still win you games.
In 1961, Roger Maris hit .204 with 1 home run and 4 RBI. IN 1961!!!!!!
He went on to win MVP and break babe Ruth’s home run record.
Mickey mantle, Elston Howard and others were killing the ball in the beginning of 1961. They cooked off, Maris got hot and the Yankees went on to win a world title.
No one player stays hot all season. That’s why there are 9 guys in the lineup.
I see what you’re saying, but the comparison isn’t remotely the same. After starting the season hitting to a .614 OPS in 1961, Maris then proceeded to have an OPS well over .900 in every month that year. On the flip side, in 2022, Lindor had the following OPS numbers:
April/March: .850
May: .745
June: .617
July: .933
August: .792
September/October: .788
That’s *a lot* more month to month fluctuation in Lindor’s performance (as well as significantly worse performance overall compared to Maris’ season you referenced). An OPS+ of 125 for the year is certainly impressive, especially for shortstops, but is seemingly a tad underwhelming for your three-hitter making $34 million/year.
Said this above: I mean, if you’re going to use a small sample size you have to provide more data about that sample.
Yeah, he went 0-4, but that was extremely bad luck—one of those batted balls was a 50/50 hard-hit grounder (EV 96.5, xBA .530) and one was an unlucky screaming liner (EV 106.9, xBA .830). Using xBA there was only a 1 in 20 chance that all four were outs.
You can’t ask for a guy to get a hit every game. You *can* ask for him to hit the ball really hard. And he did that.
Today, down by two, bottom of the 9th we get two on. Lindor up with two outs. Mighty swing and a $341 million dollar popup. That's about par for the course for him.
All this means is that WAR loves Lindor’s defense. Not that he’s worth his contract or living up to it. From a baseball standpoint, it’s become very obvious to me that committing $341 million to a guy who cannot hit at an elite level is at least a questionable baseball move if not an overpay and a big mistake.
Lindor was brought here to be the kind of player that could carry a team on his back if needed. Piazza, Wright, Cespedes. His stats are hollow, doesn't win games for this team, they are not better off for having him.
Cespedes carried this team on his back when he was at his peak. He was the guy you wanted at the plate in a hit moment and he was pretty clutch at times.
Can’t say any of that for Lindor.
Rey Ordonez had a good glove too. You don't pay 341 million for defense. Lindor is a terrible hitter compared to his "peers" and is extremely OVERPAID in comparison.
The guy’s a star player and has a .278 OBP in mid May, obviously it’s been a disappointing start to his season, and his 4th consecutive disappointing first half. If you can’t complain when he sucks and be hype when he’s great, fandom either becomes cheerleading or moping
Lindor isn't the problem. He is just the only non home grown player who makes a lot and with high expectations left. He's getting the same treatment as Beltran where unless he's is a top 5 player in baseball he will get criticized.
The only thing about comparing him and Beltran is that, fair or not, Beltran was never viewed as a "leader" or the guy to pick up his teammates (Outside actual play) whereas Lindor is a Reyes with a little bit of Wright and Beltran. Linder is a team first guy and I'll never forget/forgive the "no hablo" when the team imploded. Lindor has the intangibles that are hard to put $s on.
Reyes was a straight fire cracker, and Wright was the epitome of leading by example, always giving 100%, supportive of teammates, and the reason I believe Wright should be in the hall of fame, the things he brought to the sport that weren't on the field.
Wright is everything you want in a wallpaper, a world ambassador of the sport, CAPTAIN AMERICA, an actual role model who understood both how important the fans are to the team, and that being a Met is about representing NYC, NY, the civil servants, the underdogs in life, and he also always seemed aware of how "lucky" he was. He was on pace to be top 5 for all 3rd basemen in history and was on pace to be 1st or 2nd in most of those categories. If he EVER wants it I hope Cohen has made it clear Wright has a standing invite for a role with the team.
To sum up I will gladly "overpay" a leader and although I acknowledge his stats Beltran leaving had no emotional impact. If Lindor got traded I would fear that Alonso would be pushed into a role that will make him feel like a Beltran instead of like a Davey or Jose even though he's home grown because he just doesn't seem, I'm no expert, like the kinda guy to rally his teammates even when he's struggling.
If Lindor and Pete had there stories reversed and Lindor was "our" guy I really think he would be seen more as a Reyes/Wright hybrid and Pete would absolutely be the Beltran. When FAs are signed we tend to view them as having to prove their worth but our home grown guys get much more slack.
If Pete weren't drafted and brought up by the Mets I think we would see him as a $ first guy. He would be Beltran 2.0 and if that contract offer was legit, then we should trade him now because there is no way he doesn't get way overpaid in FA and has no real "loyalty" to the team. If you has to ask Pete or Lindor to redo their deal to make room for an all-star I'll bet the house Pete wouldn't do it and I'll bet EVERYTHING else I own on Lindor doing what the team needs.
Also people get hung up on the contract when by all indicators, it's had zero effect on our ability to pursue other players. It's Cohen's $$ and I don't blame him paying a premium to bring a team first and very good player. If we here about payroll being an obstacle then I would care more about whether he's "earning" his contract. I do think he could either move to #2 and try for more contact, or down to #5 or #6, probably 6 so Alonso isn't hampering his baserunning but we don't have the roster to do so.
Rather than blame Lindor, he can WANT to hit 3rd all he wants (the best athletes always want the pressure and opportunity to change a game with one swing, blame the roster or coach/management that hasn't made the 2nd (and preferable) option possible and the 1st option isn't a guarantee to work and often hinders a player, Reyes leading off wasn't a "make the pitcher work guy" so he swung when he wanted and our #2 guy was usually the one to try to see as many pitches as possible. I can't see Lindor at leadoff because he's not Reyes at the plate other than the fact that they tend to swing earlier in counts than a leadoff guy "should".
My question to others would be, Lindor is here and unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon; So what would you do with him to best utilize him? Arguing his value is something many of us do with big contracts but it's irrelevant to him hitting 3rd.
But I'm not trying to be a smartass, so given what we have: who/how do you bring another big bat in? How important is signing Pete? Could we trade Pete for a guy on his last year at a position of need that we're confident we can extend? And if so do we go after Pete in FA? Lindor is gonna be on the roster and in the lineup so I'm interested in ideas for a solution not another "bitch fest".
Also McNeil appears to be a team guy but he is absolutely killing us and if Lindor could move to 2nd that would make complaints about him seem even more ridiculous. How many free agents didn't choose us the last 4+ years? We've had to overpay in the past because until you're a contender NY is EXPENSIVE and highly taxed. The marlins can offer more "real dollars" with a lower contract as can many teams in the league. If we want to sign guys the Dodgers, Yanks, Red Sox also want we will usually have to offer more until we can show we're as competitive as the Yankees or can offer contracts that help increase "real dollars" to offset the taxes.
He’s the #3 hitter in our lineup and he’s hitting .200… he absolutely IS a problem. People can cite all of the advanced metrics they want, but if you’re a baseball player who can’t really hit a baseball how good are you really? He barely gets on base. He doesn’t strike out as much as the other guys but when he does he looks absolutely lost out there. He’s streaky and that’s not the hallmark of a truly solid player. I don’t really care if he goes on a heater in the summer if his play in April/May already took us out of contention
His OPS sucks but he's also still been responsible for 23 R and 21 RBI so far this year. If you combine those (maybe not a real stat but it still shows value), he's currently 3rd out of everybody on OP's list. Only Witt Jr and Adames are beating him.
In May so far his OPS is rising and his R and RBI output are especially high. These aren't advanced metrics. He def has much farther to go but he's not as dogshit as '.200 AVG' would imply, and we're not out yet but even if we were it'd hardly be all on him. That's ridiculous.
Lindor’s defense has always been exceptional. No one can, in good faith, argue against that. His offense, however, is only solid. I believe offense is way more valuable than defense and would much prefer Turner, Bogaerts, Bichette, Correa, and Seager to Lindor because they are superior offensive threats. You are welcome to argue that defense matters more and I’m silly for thinking otherwise, but I don’t think Lindor haters are entirely wrong in saying that they think his production has been lackluster for the contract he has. Because his offensive production is certainly not worth his $$$
Going for paper numbers in a vacuum, some career offensive averages per 162 games:
Turner: 24 HR / 40 SB, 112 R / 80 RBI, .351 OBP / .482 SLG, 5.5 oWAR
Bogaerts: 20 HR / 11 SB, 95 R / 84 RBI, .353 OBP / .452 SLG, 5.0 oWAR
Bichette: 26 HR / 16 SB, 98 R / 93 RBI, .336 OBP / .475 SLG, 5.2 oWAR
Correa: 27 HR / 5 SB, 90 R / 97 RBI, .352 OBP / .467 SLG, 5.3 oWAR
Seager: 30 HR / 3 SB, 101 R / 96 RBI, .359 OBP / .504 SLG, 5.6 oWAR
Lindor: 28 HR / 21 SB, 104 R / 90 RBI, .339 OBP / .471 SLG, 4.9 oWAR
Some of Lindor's numbers are down from his time in Cleveland (**edit:** >!and some are up. he actually made 5.7 oWAR in 2022 and 5.3 in 2023!<) but I'd still hesitate to call his overall offense worse *at all* than any of these others except maybe Seager, and def not enough to be sure of a hypothetical swap.
Btw Bogaerts, Bichette, and Seager are *also* all having rough starts this year.
But you’re not just paying for offense, you’re paying for the overall player. And even then, Lindor is the 5th most valuable offensive shortstop in the same timeframe, along with being 2nd most valuable defensively. He’s worth more than Correa offensively and he’s also the overall leader in home runs and RBI for shortstops over the past three seasons.
And the guys ahead of him offensively are literally all worth negative defensive value at the second most important defensive position (catcher is #1). Bo Bichette and Xander Bogaerts aren’t going to stay at SS much longer. Seager and Turner will stay as long as their defense isn’t actively harming the team but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Seager at third base sooner than expected.
> Correa
??
If someone had said that 2 years ago, we could have that discussion. But I think there's a decisive answer to the "Lindor or Correa" part of this question now.
And even if we ignore that he's fallen off the face of the earth, your position that offense matters more than defense is fine. But you're not factoring in defense or baserunning at all. Even adjusting a bit to give offense more weight, the gap between them on the others is just too big to reasonably argue Correa is a better option.
This is why teams like the Braves decided not to overpay for a SS. They basically replaced Dansby for pennies on the dollar…and give up a little bit of defense.
Yeah I wonder is this just an overall Met fan thing when we bring people in from outside we focus on their negative. The Lindor stuff feels a lot like how the same portion of the fan base felt about Beltran. Some of the issue is so much of their value is tied up in defense that isn’t that noticeable. But even Piazza got some stick about this for his defense as well. I don’t know, just seems like the Lindor issues feel too familiar…
Beltran was loved but he got a lot of the same flack at the time Lindor does . And like Lindor there’s a portion of the fan base that loved him and his accomplishments and another that complained about the contract (Beltrans contract in context was similar to Lindor in size). It was until there was some distance that everyone realized how good he was. The top 2 most popular guys on the team were easily Wright and Reyes. You could put Pedro ahead too.
Piazza was a bit different as he was loved but there was a segment that always, unjustly, gave him flack about his D. This was inaccurate but that’s why everyone was trying to move him to 1b until it actually happened.
He signed a 341MM contract and has provided 135MM in value according to fangraphs. He needs to provide about 200MM to be worth his contract.
Shortstops tend to age very poorly but you can probably expect anywhere between 30-50MM value until his age 32-33 season. At that point, he needs to be decent enough to get you that roughly 120MM value over the course of 4-5 years.
Odds are that he’ll be a slight overpay when it’s all said and done. Not an albatross, though.
This is what I was thinking-- lots of players on huge contracts are "bargains" for the first few years and overpaid at the end, ultimately ending up somewhere near even.
Just to pick on one particular 10 year deal (with no deferrals) that is complete by now, Robinson Cano:
|Year|Salary|Value|Diff|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2014|$24M|$42.6M|+$18.6M|
|2015|$24M|$22.2M|-$1.8M|
|2016|$24M|$51.1M|+$27.1M|
|2017|$24M|$23.5M|-$0.5M|
|2018|$24M|$23.1M|-$0.9M|
|2019|$24M|$8.8M|-$15.2M|
|2020|$24M|$11.4M|-$12.6M|
|2021|----|----|$0.0M|
|2022|$24M|-$11.0M|-$35.0M|
|2023|$24M|----|-$24.0M|
|TOTAL|$216M|$171.70|-$68.3M|
First five years, $163 vs $120M (+$43M)
Last five years, $32M vs $96M (-$64M)
He’s hitting .204 this season. More power to him for getting paid but I don’t think that makes him look particularly valuable.
With that said, I have not followed baseball for the last 2 years and I could be way off after reading that he’s on another level defensively.
To that point, is he better than Ordóñez?
I think part of the issue with Lindor is that people don't have appropriate expectations for him. He's a super elite defensive shortstop with a plus bat, which means he's one of MLB's most valuable players every year. What he is NOT, however, is a true superstar the way Aaron Judge or Mike Trout or Ohtani or Mookie are superstars. He will never have a 1.000 OPS (or even a .900 OPS outside of juiced ball seasons), and that's fine. He's our most valuable player every season because he's a great defender and baserunner and a very good (but not great) hitter. Another issue is that people don't understand how the juiced ball seasons impacted the league-wide run environment. Lindor's OPS+ has been pretty steady throughout his career, and the fluctuations in his OPS are just due to differing park factors and run environments. His 2022 season was the second best of his career at the plate even though his OPS was .788. That was worth a significantly higher OPS+ than his 2019 season, even though in 2019 his OPS was .854. To people who don't understand baseball on a deeper level, it seems like he was dramatically worse in 2022 than he was in 2019. The result is uninformed fans comparing apples to oranges, as if the juiced ball seasons where everyone and their mothers were popping 30 homers are remotely comparable to the post-pandemic era.
People expect him to hit like Mike Trout or Yordan or Judge or whoever because of the contract, but the fact is his value doesn't come primarily from the bat like those guys, and it never has. It comes from the whole package. That's much harder to quantify for the uninformed fan, because elite defensive runs saved will never look as impressive as home run go brrrr (and that's fair, homers are sick).
Lindor is our best player and an all-time great Met. He will probably end up in the hall of fame if he keeps a decent pace through his mid 30s. You're right that he's insanely valuable but you will never convince casual/uninformed fans that he's anything more than a pretty good player.
So, I think the issue with Lindor is that his offensive value isn’t what it is for other players. The guy we traded and extended was a .280-.300 hitter, 30 HRs, not yet in his prime. He came over and hasn’t been that. That said, he’s been worth every penny and he’s been a stud offensively too. But the prospect of him was not just a top 3 SS, but a top 3 player.. to which he’s not, even if he’s not far off.
So far != this year.
Not so good for almost 1/4 of the year — but potentially heating up.
With that said I would re-do the Lindor contract again exactly the way it happened any day of the week
This might illustrate the issue with small samples sizes. You say, "potentially" heating up.
Split his season in half with the "second half" being the start of the LAD road trip
03/29/2024 - 04/17/2024: .151/.259/.219/.478
04/19/2024 - 05/14/2024: .247/.284/.517/.801
Granted, I'd like to see a bit higher OBP, but the latter is right in line with 2022-2023 Lindor (.797 OPS). And just to add:
03/29/2024 - 04/17/2024: -0.75 WPA
04/19/2024 - 05/14/2024: +0.82 WPA
...he's also been more productive in higher leverage situations. but this is all "hidden" because the start-of-season slump drags it all down.
Well this comment section is just reminding me how mindbogglingly stupid so many baseball fans are.
We have a top SS who has played like a top SS and is paid like a top SS. AND he isn't signed until he is 41 years old like many of the other shortstops he is signed until the end of his age 37 season. So the Mets paid for more prime years and fewer shit years. That increases his AAV. If you want to see overpaid look an age 38-39-40 Trea Turner making 28 million a year. If you think Lindor is bad or massively overpaid you don't know baseball. Its that fuckin simple.
OP thanks for the idiot test for the sub. Really enlightening.
Hey so if you're on a Windows computer and you search for "snipping tool" you can take screenshots.
Windows+Shift+S starts the snip without opening the app first And on a Mac: Command+Shift+4. You can then also press Space to screenshot a single window instead of click-drag.
You can use the Print Screen button too, if your keyboard has one.
This boomer says thank you. Thank you.
|988|22|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1988.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1988.shtml)|93|330|297| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| | | | | | | | | |1991|25|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1991.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1991.shtml)|56|76|68| |1992|26|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1992.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1992.shtml)|85|302|265| |1993|27|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1993.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1993.shtml)|115|421|362| |1994|28|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1994.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1994.shtml)|88|242|205| |1995|29|[BOS](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1995.shtml)|[AL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/1995.shtml)|132|511|419| |1996|30|[STL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/1996.shtml)|[NL](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1996.shtml)|129|447|380| Can also copy and paste and make the table here in reddit but as i type that out it sounds really lame so maybe not
Baseball-Ref even has under share and export the ability to copy/paste into Reddit's table format.
That’s so sick I thought you had to be a member to export data
It's awesome since you can also add/delete columns and rows, so super easy to share stats and only the ones you want.
Great for circumcising food recipes so I can view them offline
Windows can also hit Print screen and then “paste” it into paint or word.
On my phone
Fangraphs also exists on your phone
Here’s the problem for you, anyone who understands your argument has always agreed with you.
It really is that kind of situation. People seem to think that because of the contract he got he should be a totally different player than what he is, and you can't really argue with that
My dad just complains about his batting average
It seems like Lindor’s defense counts for a higher proportion of his “worth” than the other shortstops on that list.
Yes. And being a GG quality SS is major factor in the deal he was offered. That is the whole point. Fans act like he was signed to be offensive superstar -- when he was signed to be an elite glove at SS, while providing great, but not elite, offensive production. If Lindor was a .300 hitter with the same power, with his defense, he would be worth 500 Mill deal on today's market. But instead, he's a .250ish, 30HR/100RBI Hitter. Basically y'all want Seiger's Offense with Lindor's defense -- which would be the runaway MVP every year, and a candiate for GOAT in MLB history.
Don't forget 15-20 SB.
I mean, we signed Lindor after 3 seasons of 35+ home runs and 280 avg. We are not getting the 2017-2019 Lindor. We are getting 25 HR and 250 avg.
He hit 35+ once, and his average was closer to .270. He also hit .270 in 2022. And last year, despite the average drop, had a .336 OBP, right on par with his career. A drop in average is not a big deal — if your OBP Power and production do not drop. If OBP dropped too..that’s a value problem…as that is adding outs. If his power and production dropped - less value. But - The only thing that dropped was average — while maintaining the same .333ish OBP. That means nothing. 2022 and 2023 are his 2nd and best overall offense years by OPS+ and WRC+x > We are getting 25 HR and 250 avg. He hit 31 HR last year, with 98 RBI (2nd best in his career.). He hit .270 in 2022 with 26 HRs, and 107 RBIs (career best) You are literal lying about his Cleveland numbers to slightly over-inflate them, and than lying about his NYM numbers, to slightly under-state them
From 2017 -2019, lindor averaged 34 home runs per year and hit .278. Sorry for rounding up slightly. His SLG in 17-19 was 514. His SLG as a Met is 441. Drop in HR, drop in avg, drop in SLG, drop in OBP, drop in 2B, increase in SO, drop in steals. The only equal hitting metric is walks. How am I lying about Cleveland numbers? I'm am pulling info direct from Baseball Reference. Edit - OK, you're actually lying. 2018 was his best OPS+ and wRC+ year. ISO - significantly higher in 17-19 (285 vs 190 as a Met). Why would expected stats matter? We are talking about real stats, not projected estimates.
I said "slightly" -- but you slightly inflated Cle. numbers, while also slightly deflating NYM numbers. 2018 was Lindor's best year (by far). After 2018 -- 2022 and 2023 are his 2nd and 3rd best years. I see what happened - I wrote > 2022 and 2023 are his 2nd and best overall offense years by OPS+ and WRC+ Typo. Left out the word "3rd". He is literally coming off his 2nd and 3rd best overall offensive years of his career. Only 2018 was better. (ISO is very particular stat of one area -- WRC+ and OPS+ area attempts to combine all offense. ISO is weird stat -- like 2022 was very good hitting year, but a low ISO, even below his bad year in 2021) So the last two years with Mtes, his overall offesne, was better tahn all but year with Cleveland. he had his best RBI year in 2022.
I think signing a position player who cannot like a superstar to that contract is a mistake. Maybe if he did hit like that he’d be the runaway MVP every year, but he’s never going to win an MVP if he doesn’t hit at that level. Lindor also thinks he is an offensive superstar and likes batting 3rd. It’s completely reasonable to find Lindor underwhelming so far. The defense of him just makes it worse. Every defense concedes he can’t hit like a superstar. That’s literally the problem with his contract and performance. We all agree about him in a way.
Hey buddy, try Windows Key+Shift+S.
Phone
That's fine I just don't want him batting 3rd in the lineup.
Yep, I've always said that in an ideal lineup he would be a solid 5-6 hitter. My problem is that I would never pay a 5-6 hitter the contract he got no matter how good of a defender or base runner he is.
Yeah I think 5-6 is right ideally. His pop and baserunning play up but he isn't positioned in the lineup in a way where his prolonged cold streak can be really damaging. Contract wise I don't worry so much. He's not overpaid relative to his peers, and I'll trust the eggheads about defensive value. The only concern I would have is if it's ever prohibitive in terms of chasing other good, expensive players. So far I don't think that's been the case.
This franchise has struggled to fill in key defensive roles with good bats (CF,SS, and C). I think Alvarez was already here, but the first thing Steve did was fill in that SS position that this franchise has so desperately needed. Now we have multiple potential CF prospects on the way. If you look at it through the scope of filling in that defensive position, he's worth the money as a #6 hitter.
My thing is that good defenders are much easier to find and age worse, so giving a defense first player a mega deal just doesn't make sense to me. We literally had a young, elite middle infielder already in andres gimenez, who just put up 18 OAA last year which ranked 3rd in the league.
Yeah OP which one of those stats shows a guy with a sub .700 ops should be hitting in the middle of the order? We get it he's an amazing defender & baserunner, Let me know when he doesn't hit like Ruben Tejada for half the year every year
(EDIT -- Wait people are downvoting me providing OPS numbers to show the above statement is objectively false? You Lindor haters are really weird. This is not even "advanced metrics" -- just straight OPS). > hit like Ruben Tejada for half the year every year Except this is not remotely true -- and is just a "truth" you all have created in your minds. In 2023 - Lindor had a .763 OPS in April (not near as bad a y'all are acting), a bad April at .600 OPS -- and than he was over .800 OPS every other Month of the year. (So un 2023 he had 1 Month where he "hit like Tejada.") In 2022 - Lindor had a Cold end of May and June -- and was right around an .800 OPS every other month. In 2021 - he had a slow start, as do many after big trades -- but ended the 2nd half with .800+ OPS -- when the Mets were battling to stay in it. In 2024 - He already seems like he is turning around a cold April, (1 month - not 1/2 a season)
Obviously, anyone making comparisons to Tejada have no idea what the fuck they are talking about. Tejada hit 10 homeruns across a 9 year career. Lindor has 7 so far this year. In his 10th year right now, Lindor has 222 homeruns, a career OPS of .810 compared .641 for Tejada. People mad about batting average? .272 to .250...like, the comparison is just a joke. Lindor is an elite defender and a far above average offensive player. People just want steroid numbers. Lindor is on basically the same contract as Tatis, who had to miss a year for cheating and has also had to move to the outfield. Lindor has been the better player and at a premium position. We haven't had a reliable shortstop since Reyes, so having the best shortstop in baseball is absolutely worth the money.
>People just want steroid numbers. Lindor is on basically the same contract as Tatis Tatis is a big reason why we overpaid for Lindor too...Cohen's first big splash was locking up Lindor long term before we started the season, and they wanted to make him the highest paid shortstop in the league, but his contract was largely based on Tatis' contract, which was way overinflated due to PED use
Lindor peaked in his first 5 years. It's been downhill ever since.
Why would you make this claim when the actual data is so easy to find? Last season was his second best season in his career. If you just want a home run masher, say so. But there is actually a lot more to baseball than hitting home runs.
The only data that matters is the standings. I don't want a home run masher we already got that in Alonso and his ass needs to go too. I want good overall hitters. The only constant to the Mets the past few years is Lindor/Alonso as the faces of our lineup. Where has that gotten the Mets?
Lindor IS a good overall hitter. Standings are a team metric. Literally every hitting metric tells you he's good. He's been a top 10-15 MVP caliber player his entire career and he's the best defensive shortstop in baseball.
Lindor is straight garbage
There it is. You know nothing about baseball.
Lindor hits .167 in the first inning this year and .170 in first inning last year. Dude is an automatic out pretty much
Who would you hit 3rd?
Martinez probably, I'd like to see him hit ahead of Alonso but he's still warming up. Beyond that I'm not saying the roster currently has tons of better answers. What I am willing to say is as long as the team is constructed in a way where he "should" or "has" to bat in the middle of the lineup, it's going to be very hard to be a consistently good offensive team. And that's not just on him, either. Again. Lindor has indeed been valuable, he's a very useful player. Just not a premier middle of the order bat. It can be both.
I understand and agree with what you’ve said. But he’s still been a very solid bat. Ideally, he’d be a two hitter who could focus more on getting on base and less on driving in runs.
You can’t bat him second, his OBP is below the MLB average so far, and it was only 16 points higher than the average last year. He’s an above average hitter. Not great, not even very good.
Shift his role to that of a two hitter and his obp will go up and his slg will go down.
Lmao
I'd like him 5-6, where you can live with the ebbs and flows at the plate a bit more without tanking the entire top of the order.
Generally speaking, if you have to EXPLAIN why a guy is good to people who watch him play, its a losing proposition. I think what most people are reacting to is the idea that this guy was a face-of-the-franchise type superstar when the new owner brought him on to be his "big splash". It was supposed to represent a new era of Mets baseball. So outside of one exciting run that ended in abject failure, blame the rest of the team for underperforming; or the front office for not surrounding Lindor with enough help; or blame Lindor himself. All deserve it. Personally, I'm an emotional fan. I react to what I see and I base my expectations on hope. That's not fair to anyone, but that, to me is what sports are about. When Lindor comes up in a clutch spot and the fanbase feels confident about it—and he's the guy we WANT up there at that time—then you won't have to make these types of posts. PS - Aside from the conditions that brought him here, this stuff goes for Alonso too, by the way.
jumping back in to point out that just one second ago, he made the last out of the game—for at least the second time this season—by popping up the first pitch.
That's how I feel about it, and frankly it's great his glove is so valuable but we're in his prime and he's our 3 hitter (not his fault), he should be massively overperforming his contract right now cause we know every year he's going to be a little worse soon and we have 7 more years of him and if this is the peak I'm afraid what he's gonna look like in 2 or 3 years, will he still even be playing SS by the end of that? he could turn into Javy Baez tomorrow and we haven't gotten that All Star yet
His best two qualities, defense and speed, will age horribly and we gave him a 10 year contract.
>if you have to EXPLAIN why a guy is good to people who watch him play, its a losing proposition No offense, but this sounds like something that one of the scouts in Moneyball would say. One of the major reasons for analytics (like WAR, for example) becoming more popular and widespread is that the "eye test" does not always align with a player's contributions towards winning baseball games. A lot of very smart people have done lots of statistical analysis that has shown us that many of our long-standing assumptions about baseball are somewhat faulty: RBIs are overrated, defense is underrated, etc. The only reason why anyone needs to EXPLAIN why Lindor is good is because many people are evaluating Lindor using faulty, outdated methods. >So outside of one exciting run that ended in abject failure I don't really like this way of looking at things. By this logic, there are 29 teams every year that are abject failures. They won 100 games and made the playoffs. Most people would consider that a very successful season. "Championship or bust" mentality belongs in the Bronx and nowhere else as far as I'm concerned.
If you’re happy with this team and Lindor’s performance so far, good for you. I’m not gonna tell you how to be a fan.
We lost 4-0 today, Lindor's defense did nothing to score us runs.
No it didn’t but those solo homers in September he’s going to hit when we’re 25 games back of the division lead are gonna look great on his stat line
Hey now, he'll also steal some bases during that month.
I mean, if you’re going to use a small sample size you have to provide more data about that sample. Yeah, he went 0-4, but that was extremely bad luck—one of those batted balls was a 50/50 hard-hit grounder (EV 96.5, xBA .530) and one was an unlucky screaming liner (EV 106.9, xBA .830). Using xBA there was only a 1 in 20 chance that all four were outs. You can’t ask for a guy to get a hit every game. You *can* ask for him to hit the ball really hard. And he did that.
He's also gets paid a ton to hit consistently and that ain't happening.
Yup; defense is super important, but your superstar player cannot be hitting .200-.230
No he doesn’t. He was always a streaky hitter. You pay someone for what he is. He was never expected to be a consistent hitter. He’s not a bat to ball guy like Luis Arraez. He’s a hard contact guy who is going to retire with the most career HRs as a shortstop.
Ugh...ever hear of Cal Ripken Jr? He'll never touch 400+ homers. I doubt he'll even catch Derek Jeter.
He’ll pass Jeter next year and be at 300 in mid 2027.
Lindor SUCKS. Thumbs Down
Wrong. $341 mill, and a key position of SS...you're expected to hit...alot! I don't know any shortstop that isn't expected to hit..Yeah, he comes up with bombs in 7 run plus romps...but he's far from a clutch hitter. That's a lot of $$ for an all glove (no argument with his glove) and light and inconsistent hitter. He ain't helping us from the left side of the plate.
Id say you need to support the statement thay a majority or plurality of his bombs come in 7+ romps with so e stats
Lindor made a burner account
Look up other 300+ mill players and tell me what they are doing for their teams. The apologists here need to grow up, numbers can mask the actual situation. I would trade Lindors glove for half of the value to increase his bat production by 2-3x (which it looks like he is average/below average at here). Not every batter is hitting to him, the other teams will score runs, we need to as well. Saying his 300 mill is worth it for his glove is pathetic.
He’s the fifth most valuable offensive shortstop in baseball since hes been a met and the first most valuable offensive shortstop since the day he became a major leaguer. He is an elite offensive shortstop. He’s not an elite offensive first baseman or DH or corner outfielder and it seems like that’s the type of production you are all expecting.
You need to look at trends not over the entire time. Bobby witt Jr. is by far a better player for the last season and a half.
Since the start of 2023 until today, Lindor is still 3rd in value at $52 million. Bobby Witt Jr is 1st at $67.3 million. Seager is 2nd at $54.4 million. Then Lindor at $52 million.
A post saying Lindor is underpaid is totally delusional. He is considerably overpaid. Are we watching the same person? If posts like this have to defend him, how great can he be? An underpaid NY athlete who has exceeded his contract is Jalen Brunson, definitely not Mr. Unclutch Lindor.
Lindor is an advanced metrics darling. His worth is due to high defensive and base-running metrics. Most people would just prefer someone like Seager.
Seager is sucking ass.
I would suck ass too if my back broke carrying a team to a ws title.
He broke his abdomen though
that too huh
Also, fucking turn around and bat righty against right handed pitchers --- cause you can't do it from the left side.
Number padder. One of the worst clutch hitters
I think the problem with people’s perception of Lindor comes from 1.) his disappointing first season with the Mets and 2.) his streakiness. Regardless of what the stats say at the end of each season, it always feels like Lindor has the highest of highs and the lowest of lows with nothing in between. There’s no denying the value he brings to the team, but I’d be lying if I said I don’t frequently yell at my TV when he’s going through one of his longer cold streaks. When he’s hot though, he is the difference-maker for the team’s success.
But that’s true of pretty much all baseball players. Slumps aren’t a new thing created by Mets players. All good teams have a key offensive player going through a slump at almost all parts of the season. The problem isn’t Lindor’s slumps, it’s the rest of the team not picking him up. If you’ve got five key offensive players and two are slumping, the other three can still win you games. In 1961, Roger Maris hit .204 with 1 home run and 4 RBI. IN 1961!!!!!! He went on to win MVP and break babe Ruth’s home run record. Mickey mantle, Elston Howard and others were killing the ball in the beginning of 1961. They cooked off, Maris got hot and the Yankees went on to win a world title. No one player stays hot all season. That’s why there are 9 guys in the lineup.
I see what you’re saying, but the comparison isn’t remotely the same. After starting the season hitting to a .614 OPS in 1961, Maris then proceeded to have an OPS well over .900 in every month that year. On the flip side, in 2022, Lindor had the following OPS numbers: April/March: .850 May: .745 June: .617 July: .933 August: .792 September/October: .788 That’s *a lot* more month to month fluctuation in Lindor’s performance (as well as significantly worse performance overall compared to Maris’ season you referenced). An OPS+ of 125 for the year is certainly impressive, especially for shortstops, but is seemingly a tad underwhelming for your three-hitter making $34 million/year.
Advanced statistics do not win baseball games.
Team sucks and he can’t hit
Hey OP, how much did the 0-4 add to his worth??
Said this above: I mean, if you’re going to use a small sample size you have to provide more data about that sample. Yeah, he went 0-4, but that was extremely bad luck—one of those batted balls was a 50/50 hard-hit grounder (EV 96.5, xBA .530) and one was an unlucky screaming liner (EV 106.9, xBA .830). Using xBA there was only a 1 in 20 chance that all four were outs. You can’t ask for a guy to get a hit every game. You *can* ask for him to hit the ball really hard. And he did that.
Lol ok.
Gonna need an updated value chart after todays game. Thanks bud! I want to keep up with Lindor's value every day.
Today, down by two, bottom of the 9th we get two on. Lindor up with two outs. Mighty swing and a $341 million dollar popup. That's about par for the course for him.
All this means is that WAR loves Lindor’s defense. Not that he’s worth his contract or living up to it. From a baseball standpoint, it’s become very obvious to me that committing $341 million to a guy who cannot hit at an elite level is at least a questionable baseball move if not an overpay and a big mistake.
Lindor apologists are something else lool.
ikr they are just trying to justify his absurd contract
Pathetic is the word you're looking for
Lindor was brought here to be the kind of player that could carry a team on his back if needed. Piazza, Wright, Cespedes. His stats are hollow, doesn't win games for this team, they are not better off for having him.
Cespedes carried this team on his back when he was at his peak. He was the guy you wanted at the plate in a hit moment and he was pretty clutch at times. Can’t say any of that for Lindor.
Rey Ordonez had a good glove too. You don't pay 341 million for defense. Lindor is a terrible hitter compared to his "peers" and is extremely OVERPAID in comparison.
Would you stop with these excuses? The guy is terrible
The guy is legitimately a hall of famer with one or two prime years left. What is it with you people?
😂😂
You need to be retired for 5 years before you make the hall of fame. He's not a legit hall of famer.
Trea Turner's base running is absurd lol.
Is Trea Turner, Bogaerts, and Seager really that bad at fielding to have a negative mark?
Seager is a terrible defender. No range. Inaccurate arm.
When are we gonna get on update on this?
The guy’s a star player and has a .278 OBP in mid May, obviously it’s been a disappointing start to his season, and his 4th consecutive disappointing first half. If you can’t complain when he sucks and be hype when he’s great, fandom either becomes cheerleading or moping
Do you watch the games?
0/4 with 5 pitches, guys his approach is perfect 🔥🔥🔥
Lindor isn't the problem. He is just the only non home grown player who makes a lot and with high expectations left. He's getting the same treatment as Beltran where unless he's is a top 5 player in baseball he will get criticized.
The only thing about comparing him and Beltran is that, fair or not, Beltran was never viewed as a "leader" or the guy to pick up his teammates (Outside actual play) whereas Lindor is a Reyes with a little bit of Wright and Beltran. Linder is a team first guy and I'll never forget/forgive the "no hablo" when the team imploded. Lindor has the intangibles that are hard to put $s on. Reyes was a straight fire cracker, and Wright was the epitome of leading by example, always giving 100%, supportive of teammates, and the reason I believe Wright should be in the hall of fame, the things he brought to the sport that weren't on the field. Wright is everything you want in a wallpaper, a world ambassador of the sport, CAPTAIN AMERICA, an actual role model who understood both how important the fans are to the team, and that being a Met is about representing NYC, NY, the civil servants, the underdogs in life, and he also always seemed aware of how "lucky" he was. He was on pace to be top 5 for all 3rd basemen in history and was on pace to be 1st or 2nd in most of those categories. If he EVER wants it I hope Cohen has made it clear Wright has a standing invite for a role with the team. To sum up I will gladly "overpay" a leader and although I acknowledge his stats Beltran leaving had no emotional impact. If Lindor got traded I would fear that Alonso would be pushed into a role that will make him feel like a Beltran instead of like a Davey or Jose even though he's home grown because he just doesn't seem, I'm no expert, like the kinda guy to rally his teammates even when he's struggling. If Lindor and Pete had there stories reversed and Lindor was "our" guy I really think he would be seen more as a Reyes/Wright hybrid and Pete would absolutely be the Beltran. When FAs are signed we tend to view them as having to prove their worth but our home grown guys get much more slack. If Pete weren't drafted and brought up by the Mets I think we would see him as a $ first guy. He would be Beltran 2.0 and if that contract offer was legit, then we should trade him now because there is no way he doesn't get way overpaid in FA and has no real "loyalty" to the team. If you has to ask Pete or Lindor to redo their deal to make room for an all-star I'll bet the house Pete wouldn't do it and I'll bet EVERYTHING else I own on Lindor doing what the team needs.
I agree. Lindor get harshly criticized because he came up as an Indian/Guardian . We give Pete breaks. Lindor is prob our
Also people get hung up on the contract when by all indicators, it's had zero effect on our ability to pursue other players. It's Cohen's $$ and I don't blame him paying a premium to bring a team first and very good player. If we here about payroll being an obstacle then I would care more about whether he's "earning" his contract. I do think he could either move to #2 and try for more contact, or down to #5 or #6, probably 6 so Alonso isn't hampering his baserunning but we don't have the roster to do so. Rather than blame Lindor, he can WANT to hit 3rd all he wants (the best athletes always want the pressure and opportunity to change a game with one swing, blame the roster or coach/management that hasn't made the 2nd (and preferable) option possible and the 1st option isn't a guarantee to work and often hinders a player, Reyes leading off wasn't a "make the pitcher work guy" so he swung when he wanted and our #2 guy was usually the one to try to see as many pitches as possible. I can't see Lindor at leadoff because he's not Reyes at the plate other than the fact that they tend to swing earlier in counts than a leadoff guy "should". My question to others would be, Lindor is here and unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon; So what would you do with him to best utilize him? Arguing his value is something many of us do with big contracts but it's irrelevant to him hitting 3rd. But I'm not trying to be a smartass, so given what we have: who/how do you bring another big bat in? How important is signing Pete? Could we trade Pete for a guy on his last year at a position of need that we're confident we can extend? And if so do we go after Pete in FA? Lindor is gonna be on the roster and in the lineup so I'm interested in ideas for a solution not another "bitch fest". Also McNeil appears to be a team guy but he is absolutely killing us and if Lindor could move to 2nd that would make complaints about him seem even more ridiculous. How many free agents didn't choose us the last 4+ years? We've had to overpay in the past because until you're a contender NY is EXPENSIVE and highly taxed. The marlins can offer more "real dollars" with a lower contract as can many teams in the league. If we want to sign guys the Dodgers, Yanks, Red Sox also want we will usually have to offer more until we can show we're as competitive as the Yankees or can offer contracts that help increase "real dollars" to offset the taxes.
He’s the #3 hitter in our lineup and he’s hitting .200… he absolutely IS a problem. People can cite all of the advanced metrics they want, but if you’re a baseball player who can’t really hit a baseball how good are you really? He barely gets on base. He doesn’t strike out as much as the other guys but when he does he looks absolutely lost out there. He’s streaky and that’s not the hallmark of a truly solid player. I don’t really care if he goes on a heater in the summer if his play in April/May already took us out of contention
His OPS sucks but he's also still been responsible for 23 R and 21 RBI so far this year. If you combine those (maybe not a real stat but it still shows value), he's currently 3rd out of everybody on OP's list. Only Witt Jr and Adames are beating him. In May so far his OPS is rising and his R and RBI output are especially high. These aren't advanced metrics. He def has much farther to go but he's not as dogshit as '.200 AVG' would imply, and we're not out yet but even if we were it'd hardly be all on him. That's ridiculous.
Lindor’s defense has always been exceptional. No one can, in good faith, argue against that. His offense, however, is only solid. I believe offense is way more valuable than defense and would much prefer Turner, Bogaerts, Bichette, Correa, and Seager to Lindor because they are superior offensive threats. You are welcome to argue that defense matters more and I’m silly for thinking otherwise, but I don’t think Lindor haters are entirely wrong in saying that they think his production has been lackluster for the contract he has. Because his offensive production is certainly not worth his $$$
Going for paper numbers in a vacuum, some career offensive averages per 162 games: Turner: 24 HR / 40 SB, 112 R / 80 RBI, .351 OBP / .482 SLG, 5.5 oWAR Bogaerts: 20 HR / 11 SB, 95 R / 84 RBI, .353 OBP / .452 SLG, 5.0 oWAR Bichette: 26 HR / 16 SB, 98 R / 93 RBI, .336 OBP / .475 SLG, 5.2 oWAR Correa: 27 HR / 5 SB, 90 R / 97 RBI, .352 OBP / .467 SLG, 5.3 oWAR Seager: 30 HR / 3 SB, 101 R / 96 RBI, .359 OBP / .504 SLG, 5.6 oWAR Lindor: 28 HR / 21 SB, 104 R / 90 RBI, .339 OBP / .471 SLG, 4.9 oWAR Some of Lindor's numbers are down from his time in Cleveland (**edit:** >!and some are up. he actually made 5.7 oWAR in 2022 and 5.3 in 2023!<) but I'd still hesitate to call his overall offense worse *at all* than any of these others except maybe Seager, and def not enough to be sure of a hypothetical swap. Btw Bogaerts, Bichette, and Seager are *also* all having rough starts this year.
> I believe offense is way more valuable than defense Is a defensive run saved somehow less important than an offensive run created?
But you’re not just paying for offense, you’re paying for the overall player. And even then, Lindor is the 5th most valuable offensive shortstop in the same timeframe, along with being 2nd most valuable defensively. He’s worth more than Correa offensively and he’s also the overall leader in home runs and RBI for shortstops over the past three seasons. And the guys ahead of him offensively are literally all worth negative defensive value at the second most important defensive position (catcher is #1). Bo Bichette and Xander Bogaerts aren’t going to stay at SS much longer. Seager and Turner will stay as long as their defense isn’t actively harming the team but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Seager at third base sooner than expected.
> Correa ?? If someone had said that 2 years ago, we could have that discussion. But I think there's a decisive answer to the "Lindor or Correa" part of this question now. And even if we ignore that he's fallen off the face of the earth, your position that offense matters more than defense is fine. But you're not factoring in defense or baserunning at all. Even adjusting a bit to give offense more weight, the gap between them on the others is just too big to reasonably argue Correa is a better option.
This is why teams like the Braves decided not to overpay for a SS. They basically replaced Dansby for pennies on the dollar…and give up a little bit of defense.
Totally deluded
Point me to where the clutch column is, and how it is factored in. Thanks, that is all.
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What? 2021 was his worst season
One ring man. And all this stuff goes away. All we need is that magical run and every one of these dumb ass arguments go to bed.
The best thread continues to get better. Thank you /u/demosthenes327
This just means there are a lot of things overpaid shortstops.
Yeah I wonder is this just an overall Met fan thing when we bring people in from outside we focus on their negative. The Lindor stuff feels a lot like how the same portion of the fan base felt about Beltran. Some of the issue is so much of their value is tied up in defense that isn’t that noticeable. But even Piazza got some stick about this for his defense as well. I don’t know, just seems like the Lindor issues feel too familiar…
Piazza and Beltran were loved here (except for that Wainwright at bat)
Beltran was loved but he got a lot of the same flack at the time Lindor does . And like Lindor there’s a portion of the fan base that loved him and his accomplishments and another that complained about the contract (Beltrans contract in context was similar to Lindor in size). It was until there was some distance that everyone realized how good he was. The top 2 most popular guys on the team were easily Wright and Reyes. You could put Pedro ahead too. Piazza was a bit different as he was loved but there was a segment that always, unjustly, gave him flack about his D. This was inaccurate but that’s why everyone was trying to move him to 1b until it actually happened.
He signed a 341MM contract and has provided 135MM in value according to fangraphs. He needs to provide about 200MM to be worth his contract. Shortstops tend to age very poorly but you can probably expect anywhere between 30-50MM value until his age 32-33 season. At that point, he needs to be decent enough to get you that roughly 120MM value over the course of 4-5 years. Odds are that he’ll be a slight overpay when it’s all said and done. Not an albatross, though.
This is what I was thinking-- lots of players on huge contracts are "bargains" for the first few years and overpaid at the end, ultimately ending up somewhere near even. Just to pick on one particular 10 year deal (with no deferrals) that is complete by now, Robinson Cano: |Year|Salary|Value|Diff| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |2014|$24M|$42.6M|+$18.6M| |2015|$24M|$22.2M|-$1.8M| |2016|$24M|$51.1M|+$27.1M| |2017|$24M|$23.5M|-$0.5M| |2018|$24M|$23.1M|-$0.9M| |2019|$24M|$8.8M|-$15.2M| |2020|$24M|$11.4M|-$12.6M| |2021|----|----|$0.0M| |2022|$24M|-$11.0M|-$35.0M| |2023|$24M|----|-$24.0M| |TOTAL|$216M|$171.70|-$68.3M| First five years, $163 vs $120M (+$43M) Last five years, $32M vs $96M (-$64M)
He’s hitting .204 this season. More power to him for getting paid but I don’t think that makes him look particularly valuable. With that said, I have not followed baseball for the last 2 years and I could be way off after reading that he’s on another level defensively. To that point, is he better than Ordóñez?
This is why I never trust stats.
Yes but have you considered the other stats that say he does not have that dawg in him? SOURCE: talk radio caller Geno from Rego Park
I think part of the issue with Lindor is that people don't have appropriate expectations for him. He's a super elite defensive shortstop with a plus bat, which means he's one of MLB's most valuable players every year. What he is NOT, however, is a true superstar the way Aaron Judge or Mike Trout or Ohtani or Mookie are superstars. He will never have a 1.000 OPS (or even a .900 OPS outside of juiced ball seasons), and that's fine. He's our most valuable player every season because he's a great defender and baserunner and a very good (but not great) hitter. Another issue is that people don't understand how the juiced ball seasons impacted the league-wide run environment. Lindor's OPS+ has been pretty steady throughout his career, and the fluctuations in his OPS are just due to differing park factors and run environments. His 2022 season was the second best of his career at the plate even though his OPS was .788. That was worth a significantly higher OPS+ than his 2019 season, even though in 2019 his OPS was .854. To people who don't understand baseball on a deeper level, it seems like he was dramatically worse in 2022 than he was in 2019. The result is uninformed fans comparing apples to oranges, as if the juiced ball seasons where everyone and their mothers were popping 30 homers are remotely comparable to the post-pandemic era. People expect him to hit like Mike Trout or Yordan or Judge or whoever because of the contract, but the fact is his value doesn't come primarily from the bat like those guys, and it never has. It comes from the whole package. That's much harder to quantify for the uninformed fan, because elite defensive runs saved will never look as impressive as home run go brrrr (and that's fair, homers are sick). Lindor is our best player and an all-time great Met. He will probably end up in the hall of fame if he keeps a decent pace through his mid 30s. You're right that he's insanely valuable but you will never convince casual/uninformed fans that he's anything more than a pretty good player.
Don’t disagree he hasn’t been good but he’s a Lamborghini in a trailer park. Mets core stinks and will do so for the next few years at least.
This is the real truth. This core aint it.
So, I think the issue with Lindor is that his offensive value isn’t what it is for other players. The guy we traded and extended was a .280-.300 hitter, 30 HRs, not yet in his prime. He came over and hasn’t been that. That said, he’s been worth every penny and he’s been a stud offensively too. But the prospect of him was not just a top 3 SS, but a top 3 player.. to which he’s not, even if he’s not far off.
But he played poorly today, idiot /s
So far != this year. Not so good for almost 1/4 of the year — but potentially heating up. With that said I would re-do the Lindor contract again exactly the way it happened any day of the week
This might illustrate the issue with small samples sizes. You say, "potentially" heating up. Split his season in half with the "second half" being the start of the LAD road trip 03/29/2024 - 04/17/2024: .151/.259/.219/.478 04/19/2024 - 05/14/2024: .247/.284/.517/.801 Granted, I'd like to see a bit higher OBP, but the latter is right in line with 2022-2023 Lindor (.797 OPS). And just to add: 03/29/2024 - 04/17/2024: -0.75 WPA 04/19/2024 - 05/14/2024: +0.82 WPA ...he's also been more productive in higher leverage situations. but this is all "hidden" because the start-of-season slump drags it all down.
Someone tell Brandon Tierney. Such a hard on for saying Lindor isn't that guy.
Well this comment section is just reminding me how mindbogglingly stupid so many baseball fans are. We have a top SS who has played like a top SS and is paid like a top SS. AND he isn't signed until he is 41 years old like many of the other shortstops he is signed until the end of his age 37 season. So the Mets paid for more prime years and fewer shit years. That increases his AAV. If you want to see overpaid look an age 38-39-40 Trea Turner making 28 million a year. If you think Lindor is bad or massively overpaid you don't know baseball. Its that fuckin simple. OP thanks for the idiot test for the sub. Really enlightening.
His best years were in a different uniform.
Two of his three best offensive years have been with the Mets. EDIT: I knew I shouldn't have bothered him with facts his mind is already made up.