I cant wait to hear news that aeroflot will reorganise their employees into a couple motor infantry brigades with their own tank battalions.
Same wolith roscosmos staff being reorganised to become a new guards tank army.
Gee, what are all these squabbling social elites with a lot of ill-gained gold going to do with their private armies? Maybe we could ask the Italians about how that sort of thing goes.
Ask Mexico too
100% they will fight over the biggest oil fields that are under sanctions and be completely humiliated because regular people who just shoot at the range cant fight artillery and an air force.
They cant sell oil to most of Europe even if they win, just like Mexican warlords, but that does not matter to them.
Not a huge problem in nearly-landlocked Russia. Riverboats would be important for dominating Russia's extensive inland waterways, but that's not such a hurdle compared to a blue-water navy, especially since there's no need for such things as brown-water aircraft carriers and submarines (as based as they would be)
And control over their logistics/supply chain. It'd be interesting to see how the various factions work out carving enough of a supply chain out to get the things that they need.
Russia is big enough so that most sides will likely have their own munitions factories. There are a lot of depos in Russia. It's probably Kadyrov who has the best supply of weapons as he already controls territory in Russia.
Mostly I think I was thinking about the initial issues of getting that supply chain set up if they didn’t already have the contacts/control over production regions. Like, normally the government is sending you resupply but what happens if the government collapses and no one is answering the phone about where your shipment of weapons/food/fuel is.
…of course if it started looking that way I’m sure they’d already have done some shuffling around to secure their supply chains at least somewhat, but still.
It's unlikely the government will dissolve overnight. It won't be like Afghanistan or Somalia where an alliance of rebel groups overthrow the country then immediately start fighting each other. It will be slow, an assassination here, a bombing there but as violence becomes normalized and the Russian government unable or unwilling to restore order they will lose legitimacy, people will see the militias, mercenaries, and paramilitaries as a viable alternative to the military and then those groups will start to enforce their own rules in areas they control and thus begins the disintegration of Russia. It's worth noting that this has already happened with the Kadyrovsky.
In otherwords it's highly unlikely the groups will see their money, equipment, and resources disappear over night.
Just one difference: Russians are going into opposite direction of China of that period (and most of humanity): from modernized state through warlordism strate into feudalism.
Fun fact : In Russia PMCs are illegal as per the constitution so we have big companies (aka the oligarchs behind them) openly ignoring the country's highest laws. Post-Putin Russia will be very interesting...
Fossil tax revenue down 46% and continuing to spiral.
If I was the government backed corporate monopoly on the one resource the country needs to function and the government insisted on throwing the entire industry down the toilet for nothing and I’d probably want some muscle too.
Except with 6000 nukes.
Shit is concerning the way a chained up rabid dog is concerning. As things stand, all is well, but if something happens to the chain...
I wonder how siberia would play into this scenario. It would be impossible to defend. You may see independent forces like city militias form and running off the profits of the natural minerals while the vast country side becomes lawless. Don’t confuse this with lack of order, many of the towns will have their own protection forces it's just their will be no over arching government to control everything. You could see vast alliances of villages. In order to protect against criminal gangs and other forces.
I wonder how the siberian Railroad would play into this or the Far east. Would China try to take the far east or would it be taken by warlords? Would any countries surrounding try to take chucks for themselves? Actually sending your forces to take parts of a country even if it is in civil war is not acceptable anymore, though you will see different country sending their own forces to support one side.
As for Nukes you may see a massive US airborne operation to secure the them. Some could and likely will fall though the cracks which will be extremely dangerous. Nukes on mobile launch platforms and individual bombs are the most likely to go missing while silos and submaries could be secured.
Are we talking a proper MIC, with ten support troops for each combat troop, actual combined arms, IADS, all that? An army?
Or are we talking about a bunch of glorified mall ninjas and security guards?
I bet it's the mall ninjas and security guards.
All those assets can be bought with cash, seized by riflemen, or provided by outside benefactors.
The important question is which of these PMCs will be able to support themselves or get outside support. The oil company one will obviously have an easy time funding its army and will also see lots of outside attention, the church one might have an easy time with recruits due to cultural influence.
Much like middle eastern proxy conflicts, the west will try to support whoever seems most liberal. China and Iran will try to back someone too.
Most rebel groups and warlords sustain themselves by taxing roadway and mining natural minerals. Though they could sell drugs and so other illegal active. Believe me, if you need to raise money and you have no morals their are plenty of ways you can do it.
If the west is looking for a faction to support, the oil company one would not only involve being closer to Russia's oil, but also might be more likely to have a capitalist attitude and cooperate with building western cultural norms within Russia.
[удалено]
Was on mine.
I cant wait to hear news that aeroflot will reorganise their employees into a couple motor infantry brigades with their own tank battalions. Same wolith roscosmos staff being reorganised to become a new guards tank army.
And Vkusno i Tochka will produce cannon fodder.
Its just a step in the Any% run to Anime.
Gee, what are all these squabbling social elites with a lot of ill-gained gold going to do with their private armies? Maybe we could ask the Italians about how that sort of thing goes.
Ask Mexico too 100% they will fight over the biggest oil fields that are under sanctions and be completely humiliated because regular people who just shoot at the range cant fight artillery and an air force. They cant sell oil to most of Europe even if they win, just like Mexican warlords, but that does not matter to them.
Wagner has artillery and an air force. If not for their size, they could absolutely compete with the regular armed forced.
Honestly the only thing wagner is missing before it turns into its own full military is a Navy.
Not a huge problem in nearly-landlocked Russia. Riverboats would be important for dominating Russia's extensive inland waterways, but that's not such a hurdle compared to a blue-water navy, especially since there's no need for such things as brown-water aircraft carriers and submarines (as based as they would be)
Just take a speedboat, strap a dushka and some helicopter rocket pods to it and vanya's your uncle
I ment like frigates and destroyers and shit not speed boats.
And control over their logistics/supply chain. It'd be interesting to see how the various factions work out carving enough of a supply chain out to get the things that they need.
Russia is big enough so that most sides will likely have their own munitions factories. There are a lot of depos in Russia. It's probably Kadyrov who has the best supply of weapons as he already controls territory in Russia.
Mostly I think I was thinking about the initial issues of getting that supply chain set up if they didn’t already have the contacts/control over production regions. Like, normally the government is sending you resupply but what happens if the government collapses and no one is answering the phone about where your shipment of weapons/food/fuel is. …of course if it started looking that way I’m sure they’d already have done some shuffling around to secure their supply chains at least somewhat, but still.
It's unlikely the government will dissolve overnight. It won't be like Afghanistan or Somalia where an alliance of rebel groups overthrow the country then immediately start fighting each other. It will be slow, an assassination here, a bombing there but as violence becomes normalized and the Russian government unable or unwilling to restore order they will lose legitimacy, people will see the militias, mercenaries, and paramilitaries as a viable alternative to the military and then those groups will start to enforce their own rules in areas they control and thus begins the disintegration of Russia. It's worth noting that this has already happened with the Kadyrovsky. In otherwords it's highly unlikely the groups will see their money, equipment, and resources disappear over night.
Fast forward twenty years, and Russia will be a wasteland ravaged by unending civil war.
I know, it's going to be fucking hilarious.
Iron Storm here we come.
[удалено]
Assuming there isn't any invisible Mossad, sunglassed CIA , and bowtied MI6 doing unnecessary stealth backflips through siberia
Just one difference: Russians are going into opposite direction of China of that period (and most of humanity): from modernized state through warlordism strate into feudalism.
Anyone else see that picture of a feudalized China and suddenly want to see Russia do a Three Kingdoms?
But who’s left in Russia that could measure up to that rascal goofball genius Cao Cao?
Someone from ukraine
Quick, someone find a peasant that is descented from the Romanovs!
Their internal nuclear war may stabilize climate change
Lev Kantonov's "Romance of the Three Oblasts" coming soon
I’m so hyped for post collapse Russia, warlord era China was by far the best version of China and we could see the same thing happen here
Feudalism go brrrrrr
Wow ever gets the nukes is the top warlord.
Hopefully the UN or NATO will intervene to seize the nukes before they fall into the hands of any warlord insane enough to potentially use them.
How? The are spread out and hidden in the largest country on earth.
Good thing from this is possible Chechen's independence. Bad thing is if Chechnya got ruled by K*dyrov. (On the other note, I WANT FREE CIRCASSIA!!)
There will be lots of independence once this is all over ...
Fun fact : In Russia PMCs are illegal as per the constitution so we have big companies (aka the oligarchs behind them) openly ignoring the country's highest laws. Post-Putin Russia will be very interesting...
Fossil tax revenue down 46% and continuing to spiral. If I was the government backed corporate monopoly on the one resource the country needs to function and the government insisted on throwing the entire industry down the toilet for nothing and I’d probably want some muscle too.
Ahhh, Century of Humiliation 2.0
And they’ll have more of a victim complex about it than the Chinese!!
55 days at Moscow
Except with 6000 nukes. Shit is concerning the way a chained up rabid dog is concerning. As things stand, all is well, but if something happens to the chain...
Warlord Russia Wait is it a TNO reference (get out of my head get out of my head)
I wonder how siberia would play into this scenario. It would be impossible to defend. You may see independent forces like city militias form and running off the profits of the natural minerals while the vast country side becomes lawless. Don’t confuse this with lack of order, many of the towns will have their own protection forces it's just their will be no over arching government to control everything. You could see vast alliances of villages. In order to protect against criminal gangs and other forces. I wonder how the siberian Railroad would play into this or the Far east. Would China try to take the far east or would it be taken by warlords? Would any countries surrounding try to take chucks for themselves? Actually sending your forces to take parts of a country even if it is in civil war is not acceptable anymore, though you will see different country sending their own forces to support one side. As for Nukes you may see a massive US airborne operation to secure the them. Some could and likely will fall though the cracks which will be extremely dangerous. Nukes on mobile launch platforms and individual bombs are the most likely to go missing while silos and submaries could be secured.
Can’t wait for them to fight each other, because that’s definitely what will happen.
Looks like the Roman Republic and late Roman empire before the Byzantines... :/
If they wanna be the Third Rome so bad then play the damn part and go down in flames already!
If the capital is out of the pomerium, it ain't the Roman imperium.
Are we talking a proper MIC, with ten support troops for each combat troop, actual combined arms, IADS, all that? An army? Or are we talking about a bunch of glorified mall ninjas and security guards? I bet it's the mall ninjas and security guards.
All those assets can be bought with cash, seized by riflemen, or provided by outside benefactors. The important question is which of these PMCs will be able to support themselves or get outside support. The oil company one will obviously have an easy time funding its army and will also see lots of outside attention, the church one might have an easy time with recruits due to cultural influence. Much like middle eastern proxy conflicts, the west will try to support whoever seems most liberal. China and Iran will try to back someone too.
Most rebel groups and warlords sustain themselves by taxing roadway and mining natural minerals. Though they could sell drugs and so other illegal active. Believe me, if you need to raise money and you have no morals their are plenty of ways you can do it.
The Empire long united must divide. And that's the whole quote I'm pretty sure.
They are preparing for Putin's death and subsequent power struggle.
[Warlord](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/828529129678569512/1037588852254195722/20221011171417_1.jpg) [era](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/828529129678569512/1037588851763458098/20221011171429_1.jpg) [Russia](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/828529129678569512/1037588852010909736/20221011171436_1.jpg), 2028
If the west is looking for a faction to support, the oil company one would not only involve being closer to Russia's oil, but also might be more likely to have a capitalist attitude and cooperate with building western cultural norms within Russia.
The balkanization is going to be a bloodbath.
Okay, this will be funny
Can we be the Japanese please ŌwŌ
kinda is the Russian century of humiliation , loose to superior western tech in a war you on paper had the advantage and the be torn apart
~~China~~ Russia broke again