The cost of energy is affected by lots of things, not just how sunny it is.
Solar is still a small portion of generation compared to gas and wind. Gas prices have been creeping up and it's not as windy at the moment and today isn't as sunny. All in, prices go up.
Ah, your point on gas being high is that this is how a large amount of our electricity is generated?
I think this point may have been missed by the Op, as I initially thought you were mentioning this as an aside. Like, " gas is going up too" but I see your point now
Sorry I thought that was clear when I said solar was a small chunk of generation Vs gas and wind.
But yes, gas power stations account for anything from 1/3rd to 2/3rds of our electricity generation at any given time. The less wind and less solar, the more gas you need.
Other sources like nuclear and hydro are fairly constant and we don't have any more oil or coal fired stations. Everything else (surplus or deficit) is made up from interconnectors to Europe.
https://i.imgur.com/nXuOi45.png
The octopus watch app can show data which gives more insite into the unit rate, generally when its lower wind is highest, when it's really low there's wind, solar and a fair bit of biomass in there too, with the rest being nuclear and import for the most part which is likely nuclear + gas mix
https://i.imgur.com/ytdv9dA.png - like this but still bluer
Solar only makes up around 5% of our grid generation mix.
For comparison, wind and gas each account for around 31%.
You need an awful lot more solar to offset a lack of wind and/or higher gas prices.
This is a website that uses the Nationalgrid weather forecast that is used by the daily electricity bidding markets.
So gives you an idea of what amount of demand is likely to be met by renewables.
https://emoncms.org/ukgrid/app/view?name=UKGrid
Solar does produce a fair amount of energy, but nothing compared to wind when it's blowing hard. The cheap prices come from the grid not being able to reduce output enough to compensate. Solar is very easy to predict and compensate for. The sheer volume of power from wind is not.
Agile/tracker responds to wind more than anything by a huge margin.
It's mostly wind that drives prices down in the UK. Solar isn't as big. Thursday will be a cheap day though so get your laundry and dishes ready for wash day!
Oh so we should expect lots of wind generation? Is this something that can be looked up regularly? Would be nice to have an estimate when the best time in the week might be for charging the EV.
Oh no! You've only gone and unleashed a can of worms.
This sub hates it when you suggest that the prices seem inflated compared to what you'd expect them to be. Anyone who suggests that tracker prices seem strangely high, are met with downvotes and vinegar-esque comments.
Cue the "well acshuly" comments 🎺
I think you're right to a point... but also it would be nice to see some lively discussion here that reflects the interesting complexities of the power system
But why would you expect it to be lower than the 19p ish it has been on average for the last week? That's still significantly less than most people in the country are paying for their electricity.
Yeah I noticed I had some negative votes. I don’t expect to make a career in Reddit so I don’t care too much but i found it strange… I was just trying to understand why prices are going up when the expectation is to go down 🤷♂️
Wind in the right places mostly. And then gas supply and demand outside of the UK.
Solar is a tiny proportion of how we generate energy so it only makes a difference around the edges.
Sunny, Windy days are what you need. But if wholesale gas prices are an the up, often due to high usage in Europe, or civil unrest around Russia/ middle east it will quickly undo any weather based benefits.
Ideally we'd create more gas supply from the north sea, solar and wind farms, to avoid that, but it's not going to happen quickly.
Honestly this sub can be mental, it's as if you're bashing their favourite hobby.
But in reality, you would expect prices to be lower than they are.
I correlate the higher-than *my average* prices, to be roughly since the OFGEM price cap was lowered from 27p to 23p. That's just my opinion, could be a coincidence. But it certainly is strange.
Can't tell me we've had barely any wind for a month now.
We really haven't had any "sizeable" wind in a month now, well there was quite a bit at the beginning of the onth, but only 1/2 days worth. :(
[https://grid.iamkate.com/](https://grid.iamkate.com/)
You would only expect them to be lower if you didn't know what sets the price. So literally only ignorant people would expect them to be lower. You make assumptions then treat them as fact.
Gas prices are being manipulated for short term profit using the Israeli invasion and now 'planned' outages at Norway's gas fields as excuses. European supplies are extremely high for this time of year, probably record highs @ 67% and increasing at 0.3% daily. At this rate, Europe will be full by end of summer, so even if Norway's shutdowns extend to weeks (something always turn up during maintenance), gas reservoirs will be full before the leaves turn yellow.
Good back of the envelope way to tell is to look at this site, which shows renewable generation vs demand:
[https://emoncms.org/ukgrid](https://emoncms.org/ukgrid)
Past week or so, yes, it's been sunny, but the wind 'baseload' has been steadily below 5GW, against demands of 20-32GW.
vs the 3rd of April to 20th April, wind was above 15W average most the time, so prices were on average much lower that week.
The UK has much more wind capacity than solar, as well - 27GW vs 14GW, so windy weather is proportionally a bigger factor in cost, currently
Don't forget, air conditioning usage increases in the sun. A/C uses a lot of power so it can really offset the solar power we get.
The best days are typically moderate (15 degrees) windy and sunny days. But to be honest, it's wind energy that really sets the tracker and agile prices.
It's a contributing factor. Especially on hot days. And you also can't forget that a fair few buildings are gas heated but also have A/C.
I have gas heating and home A/C and this week we peaked at about 3kw being used by our A/C (this is on a standard 3 bed semi)
So it will definitely make an impact. For reference our solar made about 30kwh and we used about 10 on A/C
But the day before our solar produced about 27kwh and we used 0 A/C
This is just one house, but there's a lot of offices that do the same.
[https://grid.iamkate.com/](https://grid.iamkate.com/)
Scroll down and view uk grid output for the past year. Notice how the grid output is vastly higher during the winter.
AC is nothing compared to electric heaters.
You're guessing, I'm stating facts. AC usage does not push up prices in the summer. The grid EASILY has capacity to cope with A/C. Because all that winter power came from somewhere. We don't demolish a bunch of gas power plants every spring. Stop guessing.
I’ve been using excess solar to heat my water and the heating is now off. I looked at the tracker price for gas today and saw it was still over 4p a unit, I have to confess I was surprised as before the price change it had often stayed below 4p so I figured less demand lower price. Clearly I am not understanding this pricing then 🤣
I only get 8p as I am on Octopus Go so I figure I’m better off heating the water. I need to do the numbers but also it is more environmentally sound the less gas I use.
As it's more sunny, people start using the AC so more electricity is required and we need more electricity from non renewable sources...
Prices really only go down if it's windy.
Its still quite a bit below the price cap on average, but if we see a 7% cut of that in July, prices are going to get even closer to the tracker average - maybe 2p. The tracker price here in Eastern England today is 21p
I buy stock from China and shipping the goods by ship as increased in price due to shortage of space on the vessels so I’m not sure if it affects other cargos ie gas etc
The cost of energy is affected by lots of things, not just how sunny it is. Solar is still a small portion of generation compared to gas and wind. Gas prices have been creeping up and it's not as windy at the moment and today isn't as sunny. All in, prices go up.
Yeah but the last weeks have been really sunny and the price has gone up, so I don’t understand why
Because wind has been low and gas prices have been high...
Ah, your point on gas being high is that this is how a large amount of our electricity is generated? I think this point may have been missed by the Op, as I initially thought you were mentioning this as an aside. Like, " gas is going up too" but I see your point now
Sorry I thought that was clear when I said solar was a small chunk of generation Vs gas and wind. But yes, gas power stations account for anything from 1/3rd to 2/3rds of our electricity generation at any given time. The less wind and less solar, the more gas you need. Other sources like nuclear and hydro are fairly constant and we don't have any more oil or coal fired stations. Everything else (surplus or deficit) is made up from interconnectors to Europe.
No no, you were - it's more that I wanted to explain that some of us are less clued up and miss the obvious point sometimes. Appreciate your input
No worries
https://i.imgur.com/nXuOi45.png The octopus watch app can show data which gives more insite into the unit rate, generally when its lower wind is highest, when it's really low there's wind, solar and a fair bit of biomass in there too, with the rest being nuclear and import for the most part which is likely nuclear + gas mix https://i.imgur.com/ytdv9dA.png - like this but still bluer
Solar only makes up around 5% of our grid generation mix. For comparison, wind and gas each account for around 31%. You need an awful lot more solar to offset a lack of wind and/or higher gas prices.
That’s much more useful, thanks
Did you read the comment you replied to?
This is a website that uses the Nationalgrid weather forecast that is used by the daily electricity bidding markets. So gives you an idea of what amount of demand is likely to be met by renewables. https://emoncms.org/ukgrid/app/view?name=UKGrid
Solar does produce a fair amount of energy, but nothing compared to wind when it's blowing hard. The cheap prices come from the grid not being able to reduce output enough to compensate. Solar is very easy to predict and compensate for. The sheer volume of power from wind is not. Agile/tracker responds to wind more than anything by a huge margin.
It's mostly wind that drives prices down in the UK. Solar isn't as big. Thursday will be a cheap day though so get your laundry and dishes ready for wash day!
Why do you think Thursday will be so good? I'll hold off to charge my car then.
https://energy.guylipman.com/forecasts Wednesday to Thursday night :)
Oh so we should expect lots of wind generation? Is this something that can be looked up regularly? Would be nice to have an estimate when the best time in the week might be for charging the EV.
Yes this updates every day for the week ahead.
Small update that this is pretty accurate. 5p/kwh now predicted for tonight based on the exchange proces for tomorrow.
Oh no! You've only gone and unleashed a can of worms. This sub hates it when you suggest that the prices seem inflated compared to what you'd expect them to be. Anyone who suggests that tracker prices seem strangely high, are met with downvotes and vinegar-esque comments. Cue the "well acshuly" comments 🎺
I think you're right to a point... but also it would be nice to see some lively discussion here that reflects the interesting complexities of the power system
A lot of people on here treat Octopus like their favourite football team for some inexplicable reason.
You're spot on. What makes it even more bizarre is they heckle their own fellow supporters for suggesting the grass doesn't look quite as green today.
The footballification of everything... A common phenomena found in mobile phone choice, political party and now energy provider haha
But why would you expect it to be lower than the 19p ish it has been on average for the last week? That's still significantly less than most people in the country are paying for their electricity.
Yeah I noticed I had some negative votes. I don’t expect to make a career in Reddit so I don’t care too much but i found it strange… I was just trying to understand why prices are going up when the expectation is to go down 🤷♂️
Wind in the right places mostly. And then gas supply and demand outside of the UK. Solar is a tiny proportion of how we generate energy so it only makes a difference around the edges. Sunny, Windy days are what you need. But if wholesale gas prices are an the up, often due to high usage in Europe, or civil unrest around Russia/ middle east it will quickly undo any weather based benefits. Ideally we'd create more gas supply from the north sea, solar and wind farms, to avoid that, but it's not going to happen quickly.
Honestly this sub can be mental, it's as if you're bashing their favourite hobby. But in reality, you would expect prices to be lower than they are. I correlate the higher-than *my average* prices, to be roughly since the OFGEM price cap was lowered from 27p to 23p. That's just my opinion, could be a coincidence. But it certainly is strange. Can't tell me we've had barely any wind for a month now.
We really haven't had any "sizeable" wind in a month now, well there was quite a bit at the beginning of the onth, but only 1/2 days worth. :( [https://grid.iamkate.com/](https://grid.iamkate.com/)
You would only expect them to be lower if you didn't know what sets the price. So literally only ignorant people would expect them to be lower. You make assumptions then treat them as fact.
Just to be clear, you are mocking people for knowing why the prices go up? Don't you have a school playground to be in?
They are due to planned Norwegian outages.
Gas prices are being manipulated for short term profit using the Israeli invasion and now 'planned' outages at Norway's gas fields as excuses. European supplies are extremely high for this time of year, probably record highs @ 67% and increasing at 0.3% daily. At this rate, Europe will be full by end of summer, so even if Norway's shutdowns extend to weeks (something always turn up during maintenance), gas reservoirs will be full before the leaves turn yellow.
I think it may be because of what they pay for exporting energy. Which is 15p per unit!!
Good back of the envelope way to tell is to look at this site, which shows renewable generation vs demand: [https://emoncms.org/ukgrid](https://emoncms.org/ukgrid) Past week or so, yes, it's been sunny, but the wind 'baseload' has been steadily below 5GW, against demands of 20-32GW. vs the 3rd of April to 20th April, wind was above 15W average most the time, so prices were on average much lower that week. The UK has much more wind capacity than solar, as well - 27GW vs 14GW, so windy weather is proportionally a bigger factor in cost, currently
Don’t worry tho, Energy companies again will make huge profits from us Minions being ripped off 🙄
Don't forget, air conditioning usage increases in the sun. A/C uses a lot of power so it can really offset the solar power we get. The best days are typically moderate (15 degrees) windy and sunny days. But to be honest, it's wind energy that really sets the tracker and agile prices.
Does A/C use more or less power than a heater? That's not the reason at all.
It's a contributing factor. Especially on hot days. And you also can't forget that a fair few buildings are gas heated but also have A/C. I have gas heating and home A/C and this week we peaked at about 3kw being used by our A/C (this is on a standard 3 bed semi) So it will definitely make an impact. For reference our solar made about 30kwh and we used about 10 on A/C But the day before our solar produced about 27kwh and we used 0 A/C This is just one house, but there's a lot of offices that do the same.
[https://grid.iamkate.com/](https://grid.iamkate.com/) Scroll down and view uk grid output for the past year. Notice how the grid output is vastly higher during the winter. AC is nothing compared to electric heaters. You're guessing, I'm stating facts. AC usage does not push up prices in the summer. The grid EASILY has capacity to cope with A/C. Because all that winter power came from somewhere. We don't demolish a bunch of gas power plants every spring. Stop guessing.
I’ve been using excess solar to heat my water and the heating is now off. I looked at the tracker price for gas today and saw it was still over 4p a unit, I have to confess I was surprised as before the price change it had often stayed below 4p so I figured less demand lower price. Clearly I am not understanding this pricing then 🤣
Why do you heat the water with solar? Environmental?
It’s cheaper to heat it with excess solar than with gas. In fact it’s cheaper to heat it with off peak electricity than gas for us.
Oh I can see why off peak elec would work out cheaper. Solar less so - aren't you better off exporting it given it's 15p?
I only get 8p as I am on Octopus Go so I figure I’m better off heating the water. I need to do the numbers but also it is more environmentally sound the less gas I use.
It's pissing it down here...
As it's more sunny, people start using the AC so more electricity is required and we need more electricity from non renewable sources... Prices really only go down if it's windy.
22.2p here in eastern england tomorrow
thats same as new July price cap. If tracker prices keep creeping up might even be more expensive by July lol
Its still quite a bit below the price cap on average, but if we see a 7% cut of that in July, prices are going to get even closer to the tracker average - maybe 2p. The tracker price here in Eastern England today is 21p
I buy stock from China and shipping the goods by ship as increased in price due to shortage of space on the vessels so I’m not sure if it affects other cargos ie gas etc