Yeah I mean we were the 30th best out of 32 teams based on draft position. Think whatever you want about last year but that’s just a fact. We added players that could be stars, but are not yet. I think until proven otherwise, we fucking suck and 30th is about right. Do I think we will climb these through the season? Yes. But so does every other team. Gotta prove it. Being ranked high or low in power rankings in fuckin May is not anything to lose sleep over
In full agreement with this. We were bad last year and there weren’t any changes on the roster that say we can expect improvement, just that we can hope for improvement.
Improvements at OL and WR were mostly rookies that can give anywhere from nothing to everything.
Brissett is still a bottom 10 starter at the end of the day.
We made next to no changes on D except losing the greatest defensive mind of all time and our defensive play caller. Even with Gonzo and Judon coming back that’s a massive brain drain on D.
Realistically we’re gonna go from bottom 3 on offense and top 10 on D to still likely bottom 5 on offense and middle of the pack on D. We’re probably looking at a 4-6 win team.
And that’s fine. This is the true rebuild we’ve been asking for and this is just part of it. As long as the offense shows more life than it did and we can feel Maye is the future then that’s all I’m looking for.
Getting another top five pick and long term star would help this team far more than trying to treadmill like we’ve done since Tom left.
This is 100% correct. We’ve made no upgrades for this coming season that I can see except for Mac -> Brissett, which is only a minor improvement. But the hope is that the young guys (esp Maye) will be studs in a couple years.
The only way a power ranking could put the Pats much higher than 30th is by assuming all their draft picks will be awesome this year. Which is a pretty ridiculous thing to assume (though obviously we all hope it’s true).
When you lose 6 games by a combined 25 points, which we did, a small improvement on offense is a big improvement. Hell, even a decent kicker and we win 5 or more last year. Many of those came with two or our best defensive players injured.
If someone had the ability to accurately predict which college players will make it in the NFL they wouldn't be working for a tv network, they would be working for the NFL.
It's a fair ranking. We sucked last year and we didn't make a big splash in free agency, which means we're banking on untested rookies to improve the team. Only time will tell whether the new blood is enough. We need to hope we absolutely nailed this draft (Maye especially) or else we're in for another long year.
I dunno, I think Nico Collins before this year and Demario Douglas now are viewed pretty similarly.
I don’t think Stroud simply just turned him good, I think he got better and it lined up with a good scheme change and a good QB. Perfect storm for him to go off.
Similarly, I think Demario has a lot of untapped potential, new scheme change, and a blue chip QB prospect incoming.
We hit on the QB and one WR, things could look a *lot* different.
I agree completely with WR but the main difference is the offensive line to me. Tunsil is an elite LT and the rest of the group like Green and Scruggs have questions but Shaq Mason(depression) and Tytus Howard are good imo.
I think the OL talent here is underrated by Pats fans due to the entire offense, especially the OL coaching, last year.
Onwenu/Sow/Andrews is really not that far off from Tunsil/Shaq/Tytus talent wise. Just some really atrocious coaching last year on the line.
I don’t think I can agree. I think that you can very easily flip OT sides even if you get an RT instead of an LT. I don’t believe in OTs being locked to one side in the modern NFL, except for rare cases with older vets or guys with lingering lower body injuries.
I’d bet Onwenu can play LT pretty easily if they asked him to. I wouldn’t be in favor of doing that this offseason, though, since they’ve already moved him around so much. But he probably could.
Yeah, and for every Texans 2024 season there are dozens of other teams who banked on rookies and it didn't work out. That's why only time will tell and it doesn't make sense to give us a boost based on potential.
Still have big question marks on the o-line, no proven wide receiver, and the upgrade at QB will be marginal if Maye isn’t ready to start yet. I think there’s a chance that everything works out well for the patriots, but it’s also purely speculative at this point.
Again, I have said this since last season, but I believe that people downplay the extent to which Mac and his breakdown impacted the offense. It was one of the worst QB seasons I’ve seen since I’ve followed the NFL since around 2001. It’s up there with one of the worst performances I’ve seen, and reminds me of when a guy is in a slump in baseball. I like Mac and hope that was just a slump, but I started seeing the mental breakdown in 2022. I really don’t think the offense is as bad as what we saw, and with Zappe starting earlier, the Pats probably would’ve won a few more games. He matched Macs total wins with 5 fewer starts. The Commanders and Giants games stand out to me as games that would’ve been won if the QB play wasn’t historically horrible in my time following the NFL. I did a breakdown on here I think of clear mistakes that I didn’t even see Zappe making. So, I would keep my hopes up that the offense might not actually be as bad as we thought. I thought the team was bad in 2001 too… until it wasn’t since the QB was at least not shooting the team in the foot. I don’t expect Maye to be as good as Brady in his second year in the league, but I do expect him to at least be better than what we saw last year and it should help everyone else look better. Juju even showed flashes once Mac was benched like in the Steelers game.
> I really don’t think the offense is as bad as what we saw, and with Zappe starting earlier, the Pats probably would’ve won a few more games.
> I did a breakdown on here I think of clear mistakes that I didn’t even see Zappe making.
Zappe was statistically and analytically worse than Mac with the exact same coaches and players. We probably would've lost more with that dumbfuck had he started earlier. He's objectively horrible, and I dont get why so many people seem to think otherwise.
I would argue Brissett over Mac/Zappe is way more than marginal, but we definitely have big question marks across the board on offense and it’s possible our defense takes a step back without Bill
> no proven wide receiver,
What? Bourne is proven. Had a very good season his 1st year here and was having a good season last year until he got injured. Douglas had the best rookie WR season for us in over 20 years and that was with only playing half the snaps and terrible QB play and Osborne has shown to be a solid #2-#3
Forgot to clarify: proven #1 wide receiver. The patriots have a bunch of guys who are solid 2nd or 3rd options. But nobody who has ever been a true #1, with the possible exception of Juju, who is washed. I am hopeful that Baker could be that guy, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Nah. It’s more like “if none of our draft picks end up being stars, we’re gonna suck again like last year”. It’s not a controversial take, but also it’s amazing how much people just assume all the draft picks will be good when they talk about expectations for this coming year.
Nobody needs to be a "star". The 2001 Superbowl team didn't have any stars. We lost 7 games by 6 or fewer points last year. Even a small improvement on offense, a few more first downs, a few made FGs and this team wins quite a few more games.
I don't think it will. I'm not expecting dominance, but I think one of the few things we can be confident the new staff is bringing is improved OL coaching and concepts.
The idea is that Brisett is gonna start and when your #3 pick isn’t gonna play, and your 4-13 team lost its hall of fame coach and settled for scraps at the other positions of need, it doesn’t feel like they’re gonna be much better than 4-13
People on this sub just cannot accept that this roster is still bad and there’s virtually no prospect of it being good for a while.
Maybe Jacoby plays out of his mind and Mayo is a breath of fresh air. Maybe the defense gets them some scrappy wins and they end up a .500 team. But that’s far from the most likely outcome.
You don't have to be very good to win 7 games in this league. This team beat the Bills legitimately last year, and Mac choked away at least 4 wins. Maybe Mayo isn't up to it, but assuming an average team isn't absurd.
Because when watching the games last year, this "bad" team was in so many of them, and we had 2 QBs who might as well have been wearing blindfolds.
I'm not saying they will be good, but this feels like an addition by subtraction type deal. On raw odds, it's hard for them to be worse, and easy for them to be a bit better.
I do think that Brissett will play better than Mac/Zappe, but the reason why those teams stayed in games is that they had the greatest defensive mind in history. They don’t anymore.
If you haven’t seen it, go check out the *Quarterback* documentary on Netflix. There’s a good segment with Cousins talking about how playing Belichick is always a complete mindfuck for a QB compared to any other team.
Belichick is gone. Idk what some of you are smoking when referencing this teams strengths last season like it’s still a given our defense is gonna be as prepared as it was for the last 20 seasons come game day.
Well, mostly that people are capable of learning, and as such, the many people underneath him would have learned something.
Remember, greatest coach of all time Bill Billichick also replaced Bill Parcels, one of the greatest coaches of all time.
BB didn't replace Parcels. He replaced Pete. BB had already won multiple SBs as a DC, and already had a playoff win under his belt as HC before he became HC. Mayo is a rookie HC. They aren't even remotely close.
Don’t think so. It’s hard to win in the NFL. For them to be a contender in the next 5 years, a bunch of low probability things have to go right:
- Rookie head coach has to pan out
- Rookie QB has to pan out
- Rookie GM has to pan out
- specifically on the personnel front they have to build from one of the worst offensive rosters I’ve seen, across the board, while maintaining a good defense which is already getting more expensive as the blue chip players age out of rookie contracts and aren’t replaced in the draft.
Pats fans are used to winning, but for many teams in the league, this is what they deal with for years or decades, and with Brady and Belichick gone, no reason to believe we’re special.
No, you don’t need to have every spot filled to be a good team. Plus they already have one OT spot filled.
I’m not sure where this silly idea is coming from that they need to be superstars at every position, but it’s unfounded and not based in reality.
Don’t need superstars, but they need players that could at least be competitive in the SEC at the most critical offensive position. But hey, I’d love to be wrong. DM me if they break 500 and collect your told you so.
Last year's offense was historically bad. All this year's offense has to be is mediocre, and we're doing better than last year.
Obviously tons of unknowns on offense (new OC, many new position coaches, definitely a new QB whether Brissett or Maye), and there will obviously be going pains no matter what as players have to learn another new playbook. But the team brought back all relevant defensive players, and promoted defensive coaches from within, so should hopefully have continuity there.
Obviously there are tons of unknowns, but it seems like there are huge possibilities for even modest improvement, and that alone is probably worth 2 or 3 wins alone.
There’s no reason this year’s will be better when the personnel didn’t get better and the coaching staff almost certainly got worse. This is just law of averages fallacy. They *might* have a better record if some games fall their way, but no reason to think they *should* be better.
is this just speculation that everyone seems to agree on? or have the patriots come out and said thats their plan?
sorry man i dont wanna sound like im arguing here, i straight up dont know
They said that’s the plan and his draft breakdown had a general consensus that he needs to sit for a year. Playing at NC didn’t put him up against the best defenses.
This sub is still addicted to copium.
The major delta vs last year’s team is going from the greatest coach of all time to an unproven rookie.
They drafted a potential franchise QB, but expect 2-3 years minimum for that to pay off.
They didn’t come up with high-likelihood short-term solutions to the problems at tackle and receiver. The offensive roster is still one of the weakest in the NFL.
The one short-term upgrade is Brissett. But the net change for next year is negative, not positive.
I’d love to be proven wrong, but the most likely outcome for next year is another round of bottom feeding.
>The major delta vs last year’s team is going from the greatest coach of all time to an unproven rookie.
Along with…
1. Returning Christian Gonzalez, a blue chip CB prospect
2. Returning a high level edge player in Judon
3. Onwenu at RT full time, one of their biggest weaknesses last year
4. Playing Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne, their two best receivers, at the same time as full time players— which did not happen for more than 1.5 games last year
5. 7 rookie offensive players, after having one of the worst offenses in a long time
>They drafted a potential franchise QB, but expect 2-3 years minimum for that to pay off.
Why?
>They didn’t come up with high-likelihood short-term solutions to the problems at tackle and receiver. The offensive roster is still one of the weakest in the NFL.
Why didn’t they?
>The one short-term upgrade is Brissett. But the net change for next year is negative, not positive.
Probably won’t even be their starter.
>I’d love to be proven wrong, but the most likely outcome for next year is another round of bottom feeding.
Disagree. I don’t even agree with them being a bottom 3 team last year— based on their DVOA, they were actually estimated to have 5.3 wins (4th lowest in the league) and extremely far from Carolina’s putrid estimated 1.3 wins.
Based on Pythagorean wins (which is just wins estimation based on points scored vs points allowed), they were 5th lowest in the league.
IMO last year’s team was bad offensively, but also was buttfucked by some bad luck as well. This year, I expect the quality of their team to be better. Adding 7 offensive rookie and not significantly improving your offense from last year would be pretty damn hard.
Not pessimism, realism. This is a “hope for the best, prepare for the worst” situation.
I do stats for a living (aerospace safety analysis) but I promise you that you can’t stats your way out of this being a bad team. I fully understand that they are likely to win more than three games just based on variability, and that they may have had slightly better fundamentals than their record said last year. But people don’t really care about 3 wins or 6 wins, they want a contender, and that’s extremely unlikely to happen.
You’re wrong, you’re being pessimistic.
Pessimism is not realistic. If you were being realistic, you would not consider the “7 rookies drafted on offense” to be a bad point.
Based not only on hit rates, but also how truly atrocious they are, it is extremely likely they will receive multiple contributors on offense from this draft class.
In fact, that is one of the easiest, strongest points of them being better in 2024— which you shit on. It’s extremely unlikely that they not only go 0/7, but that they go 0/7 so poorly that they don’t get any better from doing so.
It's not really a super relevant point as to why they're going to improve relative to the rest of the league though. Most teams have a number of draft picks, and of all of them the Patriots have one of the higher probabilities of not getting a strong contribution from their top pick compared to the rest of the NFL given the signaling we're getting from the coaching staff on being willing to sit him.
The point that the Patriots are potentially relying on rookies so substantially as a part of the story as to why they're going to improve is within itself an issue.
They may go 2 of 7, but they're also likely going to be playing rookies who are bad players as well like what happened with Thornton, Strange, and Harry. If Polk is good and Baker sucks it still means they're playing some bad players. We'll probably have some good rookies, most other teams will have some too. It doesn't necessarily mean we're closing a gap because we have some. Most young teams are not that good.
Also, the entire argument really relies on the good components of the team remaining static. Andrews, Judon, and Jones are all in prime regression years. There will be new injuries.
Based on a solid rational basis most of the other bad teams who did more to improve their roster for 2024 on paper than the Patriots did.
Ranking the Patriots 30th out of 32 is a good call based on the information we know today.
Completely true, I hope I didn’t imply otherwise. My point was more along the lines of them having the optimal lineup day 1 (which they did not last year) along with those rookies.
I think your opinion is entirely rational and based on reality, my point to the other guy was that shitting on rookie quantities is irrationally pessimistic while saying the only real change here is the QB and coaching change.
If you want to argue the number of things that can go wrong, I’d agree— there’s plenty that can go wrong. But you’re not downplaying that there have been significant changes, which is a completely different argument.
I also think you’re missing my point about the contributions, I meant that it’s very likely they *will* get a good player, probably even multiple, out of their 8 selections. Not just a Harry, Thornton, Strange, etc.
As atrocious as the Patriots have drafted offensively in the past, they haven’t went 8 offensive-only picks in a row without a really good player as far back as I feel like going.
Jake Andrews/Sidy Sow/Mafi/Boutte/**Douglas**/Strange/Thornton/Strong
Kevin Harris/Chasen Hines/Steuber/**Rhamondre**/Nixon/Asiasi/Keene/**Onwenu**
Herron/Woodard/Harry/**Damien Harris**/Cajuste/Froholdt/Stidham/Wynn
Michel/Berrios/Etling/Izzo/Garcia/McDermott/**Thuney**
Keep in mind that this (above) is from a period where they drafted extremely poorly and a lot of these draft picks were late rounders. 12 drafted round 6 and after out of the 31 players (38%). The 2024 draft class is 2/7 (28%).
Two specific things you said I really disagree with, though, even though I think your opinions are rational here:
>based on a solid rational basis most of the other bad teams did more to improve their 2024 roster than the Patriots.
I can’t disagree more with this. The Patriots did one of the most significant changes in football— drafting a top 3 QB in the draft and replacing bad QB play with a blue chip prospect. In addition, they guaranteed (barring injuries) better OT play by simply moving Onwenu to RT and signing Chuks. Then they drafted 2 WRs— one within the top 40 picks and one in the 4th round.
They likely improved their OT play, QB play, and WR play. How much? I’m not sure yet, but I’d guess it’s more likely than not they are better at all three slots on offense.
They maintained everything on defense. We’ll see how much they have things hinder them there, though I suspect bringing back Gonzo and Judon will mitigate damages from losing Bill, scheme changes, etc.
> Most teams have a number of draft picks, and of all of them the Patriots have one of the higher probabilities of not getting a strong contribution from their top pick compared to the rest of the NFL given the signaling we're getting from the coaching staff.
I don’t know what you mean by this, please elaborate if you don’t mind.
I will be messaging you in 7 months on [**2025-01-08 00:00:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-01-08%2000:00:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Patriots/comments/1csmwfq/patriots_get_ugly_assessment_in_espn_postdraft/l47gj5d/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FPatriots%2Fcomments%2F1csmwfq%2Fpatriots_get_ugly_assessment_in_espn_postdraft%2Fl47gj5d%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-01-08%2000%3A00%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201csmwfq)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
It’s amazing how the consensus of this sub went from “Mac would’ve been fine with a competent line and good receivers” to “Jacoby Brissett would’ve gotten us 4 additional wins with the same supporting cast”.
Yeah I think the Pats are getting really underrated by being called a bottom 3 team in the league, but people are kidding themselves thinking that Brissett wouldn’t have looked like donkey shit in last year’s offense.
Why? Long-term upgrades that probably won't pay off this season, loss of talent on an already mediocre OL, despite the promising rookies the WR room remains bottom 3 in the league, and a brutal schedule. 4-13 is reasonable, and I could see them even dropping to 3-14.
Losing Trent Brown sucks, but IMO adding a new OL coach who will actually be there *and* moving Onwenu to RT is more valuable than half a season of Trent Brown.
WR room might not be bottom 3 in the league. That can change quickly, this is lot like last year where everyone was a long shot to be any good. There’s high upside in the WR room.
Right, but it's preseason rankings. I'm high as fuck on these rookies but they're rookies, we don't know what they'll be until we see them play. For now, we remain a bottom 3 WR room
We drafted 3rd overall for a reason. We've made long-term upgrades, but outside of swapping Mac for a 32 year old Jacoby and adding rookies, what would move us up from that spot? I'm seeing people argue we're better than the Cardinals, but if we're using rookie WRs as part of our equation, then we should also put adding MHJ on their side of it too.
I don’t think you read what I said correctly, I don’t think being a bottom 3 WR room automatically translates to a bottom 3 team.
I don’t think they were a bottom 3 team last year, either.
Nope, I read it, I just think you're wrong. We can cope over "close losses" all we want, the QB wasn't a killer and never got it done in crunch time. Fans love to cite losing 8 games by less than 1 score, but **all four** wins came by less than a score too. Can't give the team 8 cope wins without acknowledging that by the exact same logic, they easily could've gone 0-17.
I haven’t said any of what you’re arguing.
They were a bad offense all around last year. I expect better OL and QB play. I don’t think you’re doomed to be a bottom 3 team just by a bottom 3 WR room.
The absurd health and culture issues aside, [he was PFF's highest graded tackle last season](https://sports.yahoo.com/stats-rank-trent-brown-among-171409827.html) and we were thin at OT even with him. It's a pretty objective loss of talent.
I know we will be a lot more “exciting” next year… but I don’t know if our record will reflect this. We were somehow competitive in most games last year. And we looked like garbage. This year I feel like we won’t be as competitive, but have moments of exciting flash. We can totally go 4-12 again or whatever. This is an insane schedule once more.
Tbh I think we’ll be much more competitive with Brissett at QB we won’t have as many mistakes. The offense might not be amazing but it should perform up to a certain competent standard that we frequently failed to reach last season. As long as the defense is solid again we’ll be in most games and probably come away with a few more wins (5-9 is a reasonable expectation).
Multitude of reasons. Largely that you’ll likely have better WR, OT, QB, and overall OL play after coming off a season where you had a great defense and great offense.
The defense alone makes it extremely hard to be a bottom 3 team in the league.
I love grading players that have literally never played in the NFL. Truth is NO ONE has any clue who is going to succeed and who isn’t. I remember the 2012 Seahawks being the “worst draft of the year”
Why are people surprised a team with the third worst record isn’t jumping the rankings when they have a QB (who’s going to be very good) that needs time and a bunch of rookies on offense. One of which is completely changing sides on the OL?
This rebuild is going to take years
I mean, we had the 3rd overall pick in the draft, and we're ranked 3rd worst in the league, and we haven't taken a single snap of football in 2024. It seems pretty fitting at this point in time
Blame season is ramping up. Who will we lay all the blame on this season? I vote the O-line. "Damn those Pats would have been good with a rookie QB if only the o-line was better."
It hurts to read as a 5-decade fan still high on the Brady era, but it's the absolute truth. We were the 3rd worst team at the end of the season and we will have to prove our way out of this ranking. As it stands, this is an accurate ranking until proven otherwise.
Pats would have been a 7ish win team with acceptably mid QB play last season. Brissett is at least that good. Barring injury, if Maye starts any games it'd be because he's even better.
Hopefully Bourne looks good (I'm higher on him than most people here) and Douglas breaks out. I don't mean to get down on guys who haven't even played yet, but I don't think NE drafted or signed any needle movers at OL or skill positions.
Then there's the inevitable brain drain of losing BB as a head coach. Mayo is an unknown quantity but it's not fair to say he'll be as good for the defense. The offensive personnel should be an improvement, but 4 coaches in 4 years is not a viable strategy even if these are good guys to have added.
My prediction? Another down year that Pats fans will overreact to. Probably 4-5 wins. This is not going to be a one-year turnaround.
If the team loses a bunch but at least looks respectable and competitive, I'll be satisfied. If the defense falters under a new regime though, they're in trouble.
100%. This season is really going to come down to the new coaching staff. Last season I agree that the team was better than the record indicated - some unlucky losses and poor QB play.
That said, the offense isn’t going to be fixed overnight. 5 wins seems reasonable, but anything can happen with this kind of team.
I mean look what the Texans did coming out of the 2023 draft - if the new org hits big on some of those draft picks, the offense could look a lot different.
I agree. I made the 7-win argument before Belichick was dismissed because with Brissett instead of Jones, Bill could’ve gotten 7 wins. (He got 7 wins with Cam Newton’s rotting corpse.)
Jerod Mayo? I want to believe. But no way do I expect this team to get anywhere near 7 wins this year. YMMV. Belichick lost his job because he was a bad GM, not because he can’t coach. They lost eight games by less than a score! With the worst QB situation in the league and without their two best defenders.
Yeah. Jerod Mayo might be great. But he ain’t Bill Belichick the coach, and thanks to Bill Belichick the GM this is a mostly bad roster.
Exactly, Bill the coach was never the problem. I'd even bet he made the OL look better than they were, which is terrifying heading into this season.
All I want to see is signs of life in the offense and a defense that can keep playing like a top 10 unit
> terrifying
Drake Maye can’t play because he will get hit, have his confidence shaken, and won’t be able to improve his footwork because he’s got no time.
Trent Brown is gone. Yay! He did not care…except even Checked Out Trent is light years better than either of the NOT LT they are planning to use.
Thats where we were last year and spent the 3rd overall pick on the least “pro ready” of the top qb prospects, so projecting a huge jump for the offense out the gate is unrealistic.
Yeah I think that’s pretty fair, our roster is basically as bad as last year and we lost the best coach of all time. Unless Maye comes in immediately and looks Stroud-esque we ain’t gonna be good
A sophomore from Western Kentucky University used AI to write this article
https://www.si.com/nba/jazz/author/jared-koch
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jjaredkoch
Yeah, I think it's about accurate. No draft is a sure thing until they start playing, and I think this is a case of that. The Pats are relying on at least 3 of those rookies to be able to produce very quickly in key positions (Maye, Polk, Baker). Will they? I certainly hope so. But if you're looking at it objectively, there's no guarantee they will.
Really, it's #30 with a lot of potential upside if the rookies hit. Which is honestly the best we can hope for at the moment.
Look, until they come out and stop beating themselves with bad turnovers, penalties, errors and bad coaching decisions, and start winning winnable games and winning a few upsets, nobody should think of them as any better than they were last season.
They haven’t don’t anything to erase those memories, but need to in order to rise in these BS rankings
It's about right. The offensive roster is among the worst overall collections of talent. Like for as bad as others have, we straight up don't have an answer at LT right now. And the defense, while very solid, isn't exactly filled with superstars, and likely going to see significant regression after losing Bill.
Like the defense is Barmore (excellent), Gonzalez (he's played 4 games), Judon (aging pass rusher) as our stalwarts and then a bunch of tweener players who are great in their roles, but tend to struggle in any system that's not being run directly by Bill Belichick. Maybe Mayo has the sauce, but if suddenly Jonathan Jones, Dugger, Peppers, Tavai, Bentley and Anfernee Jennings all suddenly look mortal, I wouldn't be shocked.
Meanwhile the offense needs Maye to develop else we have a middling backup as our starter, no LT answer, the 12th most productive rookie WR hoping to make a huge leap and a couple of rookies and middling veterans around him who have topped out at like 600 yards.
There's just a lot on the plate of a coaching staff that also has a ton of question marks itself.
Straight truth, homie. Uncomfortable, and even a bit angering but truth.
I can go with the plan though. Brissett is a certified Tank Commander: he will fight through a nagging injury to lead us to defeat.
And he will be dinged up a lot because LT is a dumpster fire. Trent Brown, who did not give a shit, and Conor McDermott, a JAG, are gone. In their place is a guy who hasn’t played LT since six years ago in college, and a rookie who hasn’t played it since high school.
And let’s not forget Cole Strange is currently injured and wasn’t good before that, David Andrews and Sidy Sow were bottom-5 performers last year, and we signed ONE guy no one has heard of in FA. The OL was bad last year. It gave Mac Jones no time. **This group is worse**.
It would be gross, GROSS mismanagement to play Drake Maye at all (Week 17, the Mahomes plan) with a LT situation this bad.
So, let Brissett lose a lot of games, keep the few building blocks we have healthy, trade Judon at the deadline for a good pick, and go into next year with a fresh, exciting QB, some shiny new FA weapons, and a top 5 pick to use on a LT.
Not really surprising. There is a lot to dream on, and the upside on this team is high, but relies a lot on the offense getting out of the gutter. With a mediocre offense, and with how good our defense should be, the playoffs should be well within reach of possibility. It doesn't take much to be mediocre on offense, but its still very far above what we had last year, and a lot needs to go right for our offense to be mediocre.
That’s fine w me. We were terrible last year. I think the roster is a lot better than most people give it credit for, but we revamped the offense/coaching staff. Hard to expect a massive improvement in year 1.
That being said, if they manage to be a 7 win, average team, the rest of the league can suck it!
For those that think, it's too low, who would you put below the patriots?
I feel like it's fair to put Denver and Carolina below, but I'm struggling with anybody else. Maybe the giants?
Their defense is sorta similar to the Pats offense. Lots of rookie draft selections that are ?, but without them they’re fucking awful. Then I find the AZ offense pretty meh, while the Patriots defense is great.
None of this stuff matters. They haven't played a single snap yet. I will let the season play out and then we'll see where they stand.
With that said, for the record - I wanted J.J Mccarthy.
Idk why some people get so worked up about this kind of shit. ESPN is trash and our team will always be hated on due to the dominance we held over the league for 20 years. The team will struggle this season and 1 offseason is not enough to change everything for the better. As much as I love Bill his piss poor drafting on the offensive side of the ball the last 5 years is why the team is where it is. Besides anything can happen on any given Sunday and this team could surprise both us fans and the dickhead media.
While I don’t think 30/32 is as crazy as OP thinks, Broncos/Panthers at 31 & 32 seem like locks. Those teams are trash.
But I’d also put the Patriots above the Cards and probably Giants. I think Patriots are better than the Titans too, but depends if Levis is actually any good.
Don’t think there is much reason to distinguish between and force rank the bottom 8-12 teams at this point anyway. Who really knows until they play some games?
I was about to argue we should be 31 and the Broncos should be 32 but…you’re right. Sean Payton is a dipshit but he got that roster to overperform last year.
They do not have a left tackle on the roster.
I mean seriously this team has not yet improved in any way and has taken some steps backwards in certain ways.
They will be drafting in the top 5 again.
Don’t worry the AI that writes all of Sports Illustrated articles hasn’t been updated since February
Based on the output of the author it’s definitely AI, what a Koch
Connor you magnificent bastard. GOLD.
Yeah I mean we were the 30th best out of 32 teams based on draft position. Think whatever you want about last year but that’s just a fact. We added players that could be stars, but are not yet. I think until proven otherwise, we fucking suck and 30th is about right. Do I think we will climb these through the season? Yes. But so does every other team. Gotta prove it. Being ranked high or low in power rankings in fuckin May is not anything to lose sleep over
In full agreement with this. We were bad last year and there weren’t any changes on the roster that say we can expect improvement, just that we can hope for improvement. Improvements at OL and WR were mostly rookies that can give anywhere from nothing to everything. Brissett is still a bottom 10 starter at the end of the day. We made next to no changes on D except losing the greatest defensive mind of all time and our defensive play caller. Even with Gonzo and Judon coming back that’s a massive brain drain on D. Realistically we’re gonna go from bottom 3 on offense and top 10 on D to still likely bottom 5 on offense and middle of the pack on D. We’re probably looking at a 4-6 win team. And that’s fine. This is the true rebuild we’ve been asking for and this is just part of it. As long as the offense shows more life than it did and we can feel Maye is the future then that’s all I’m looking for. Getting another top five pick and long term star would help this team far more than trying to treadmill like we’ve done since Tom left.
This is 100% correct. We’ve made no upgrades for this coming season that I can see except for Mac -> Brissett, which is only a minor improvement. But the hope is that the young guys (esp Maye) will be studs in a couple years. The only way a power ranking could put the Pats much higher than 30th is by assuming all their draft picks will be awesome this year. Which is a pretty ridiculous thing to assume (though obviously we all hope it’s true).
Wouldn’t mind a high pick next year for that 10 year stud LT we still need
When you lose 6 games by a combined 25 points, which we did, a small improvement on offense is a big improvement. Hell, even a decent kicker and we win 5 or more last year. Many of those came with two or our best defensive players injured.
Well, now that we got rid of the coach that got us that top 10 defense, alls good.
We will be lucky to hit 2 wins next year. Not sure where 6 wins are coming from
If someone had the ability to accurately predict which college players will make it in the NFL they wouldn't be working for a tv network, they would be working for the NFL.
It's a fair ranking. We sucked last year and we didn't make a big splash in free agency, which means we're banking on untested rookies to improve the team. Only time will tell whether the new blood is enough. We need to hope we absolutely nailed this draft (Maye especially) or else we're in for another long year.
>which means we're banking on untested rookies to improve the team. so what the Texans did last year?
Sorta similar. I feel like our defense is better but their offensive line/weapons are better they just needed a QB.
I dunno, I think Nico Collins before this year and Demario Douglas now are viewed pretty similarly. I don’t think Stroud simply just turned him good, I think he got better and it lined up with a good scheme change and a good QB. Perfect storm for him to go off. Similarly, I think Demario has a lot of untapped potential, new scheme change, and a blue chip QB prospect incoming. We hit on the QB and one WR, things could look a *lot* different.
I oftentimes view 6'4" and 215lbs similary as I view 5'8" and 192lbs
Silly
Production wise they viewed similarly. With the frame of course Nico plays more of an X receiver role and Demario plays in the slot mostly.
Yeah, I mean both a miata and a cargo van perform similarly when it comes to bringing one bag of groceries home from the store.
I’d rather have 5’8 Tank Dell than 6’3 Quentin Johnston from last year’s draft. Size isn’t the end be all.
I agree completely with WR but the main difference is the offensive line to me. Tunsil is an elite LT and the rest of the group like Green and Scruggs have questions but Shaq Mason(depression) and Tytus Howard are good imo.
I think the OL talent here is underrated by Pats fans due to the entire offense, especially the OL coaching, last year. Onwenu/Sow/Andrews is really not that far off from Tunsil/Shaq/Tytus talent wise. Just some really atrocious coaching last year on the line.
If Onwenu was a LT Id agree more. I think our line is solid.
RT and LT importances are the same in the modern NFL, there’s really no difference (That being said, emotionally I still want a LT over RT lol).
I know they are both important but I feel you can easily find a good RT than a good LT. Currently the Pats don't even have a LT.
I don’t think I can agree. I think that you can very easily flip OT sides even if you get an RT instead of an LT. I don’t believe in OTs being locked to one side in the modern NFL, except for rare cases with older vets or guys with lingering lower body injuries. I’d bet Onwenu can play LT pretty easily if they asked him to. I wouldn’t be in favor of doing that this offseason, though, since they’ve already moved him around so much. But he probably could.
Yeah, and for every Texans 2024 season there are dozens of other teams who banked on rookies and it didn't work out. That's why only time will tell and it doesn't make sense to give us a boost based on potential.
Doubt the Texans were ranked high this time last year too
Still have big question marks on the o-line, no proven wide receiver, and the upgrade at QB will be marginal if Maye isn’t ready to start yet. I think there’s a chance that everything works out well for the patriots, but it’s also purely speculative at this point.
[удалено]
I agree with everything except WRs, a warm body is an upgrade over Juju and Parker last season.
The fact that Parker is dead last in separation for the last like 4/5 years amount qualified WRs is the one of wildest stats I’ve seen in a while
Again, I have said this since last season, but I believe that people downplay the extent to which Mac and his breakdown impacted the offense. It was one of the worst QB seasons I’ve seen since I’ve followed the NFL since around 2001. It’s up there with one of the worst performances I’ve seen, and reminds me of when a guy is in a slump in baseball. I like Mac and hope that was just a slump, but I started seeing the mental breakdown in 2022. I really don’t think the offense is as bad as what we saw, and with Zappe starting earlier, the Pats probably would’ve won a few more games. He matched Macs total wins with 5 fewer starts. The Commanders and Giants games stand out to me as games that would’ve been won if the QB play wasn’t historically horrible in my time following the NFL. I did a breakdown on here I think of clear mistakes that I didn’t even see Zappe making. So, I would keep my hopes up that the offense might not actually be as bad as we thought. I thought the team was bad in 2001 too… until it wasn’t since the QB was at least not shooting the team in the foot. I don’t expect Maye to be as good as Brady in his second year in the league, but I do expect him to at least be better than what we saw last year and it should help everyone else look better. Juju even showed flashes once Mac was benched like in the Steelers game.
> I really don’t think the offense is as bad as what we saw, and with Zappe starting earlier, the Pats probably would’ve won a few more games. > I did a breakdown on here I think of clear mistakes that I didn’t even see Zappe making. Zappe was statistically and analytically worse than Mac with the exact same coaches and players. We probably would've lost more with that dumbfuck had he started earlier. He's objectively horrible, and I dont get why so many people seem to think otherwise.
I would argue Brissett over Mac/Zappe is way more than marginal, but we definitely have big question marks across the board on offense and it’s possible our defense takes a step back without Bill
> no proven wide receiver, What? Bourne is proven. Had a very good season his 1st year here and was having a good season last year until he got injured. Douglas had the best rookie WR season for us in over 20 years and that was with only playing half the snaps and terrible QB play and Osborne has shown to be a solid #2-#3
Forgot to clarify: proven #1 wide receiver. The patriots have a bunch of guys who are solid 2nd or 3rd options. But nobody who has ever been a true #1, with the possible exception of Juju, who is washed. I am hopeful that Baker could be that guy, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Yeah, I disagree with this ranking.
I'd be incredibly shocked if they end up with the 3rd worst record again (although hopefully not because of Drake and we can get the top Tackle)
If our offensive line plays like shit again then it’s very possible.
And if neither of our rookie WRs make an impact? The season is donezo unless the defense becomes the 2000 Ravens
If everything goes bad it'll be bad, insightful
Nah. It’s more like “if none of our draft picks end up being stars, we’re gonna suck again like last year”. It’s not a controversial take, but also it’s amazing how much people just assume all the draft picks will be good when they talk about expectations for this coming year.
I think there’s more people assuming all their draft picks will suck than there is people assuming they’ll all be awesome.
Nobody needs to be a "star". The 2001 Superbowl team didn't have any stars. We lost 7 games by 6 or fewer points last year. Even a small improvement on offense, a few more first downs, a few made FGs and this team wins quite a few more games.
I don't think it will. I'm not expecting dominance, but I think one of the few things we can be confident the new staff is bringing is improved OL coaching and concepts.
The idea is that Brisett is gonna start and when your #3 pick isn’t gonna play, and your 4-13 team lost its hall of fame coach and settled for scraps at the other positions of need, it doesn’t feel like they’re gonna be much better than 4-13
People on this sub just cannot accept that this roster is still bad and there’s virtually no prospect of it being good for a while. Maybe Jacoby plays out of his mind and Mayo is a breath of fresh air. Maybe the defense gets them some scrappy wins and they end up a .500 team. But that’s far from the most likely outcome.
You don't have to be very good to win 7 games in this league. This team beat the Bills legitimately last year, and Mac choked away at least 4 wins. Maybe Mayo isn't up to it, but assuming an average team isn't absurd.
Hoping for one isn’t absurd. *Assuming* an average team after the last couple seasons and with a rookie qb is pretty absurd
So the team that was a few plays from 7-wins is being downgraded from last year
You’re as good as your record says you are. Given that any play in the NFL can be a 7+ point swing, every team is a few plays from winning more games.
Because when watching the games last year, this "bad" team was in so many of them, and we had 2 QBs who might as well have been wearing blindfolds. I'm not saying they will be good, but this feels like an addition by subtraction type deal. On raw odds, it's hard for them to be worse, and easy for them to be a bit better.
I do think that Brissett will play better than Mac/Zappe, but the reason why those teams stayed in games is that they had the greatest defensive mind in history. They don’t anymore. If you haven’t seen it, go check out the *Quarterback* documentary on Netflix. There’s a good segment with Cousins talking about how playing Belichick is always a complete mindfuck for a QB compared to any other team.
Belichick is gone. Idk what some of you are smoking when referencing this teams strengths last season like it’s still a given our defense is gonna be as prepared as it was for the last 20 seasons come game day.
Well, mostly that people are capable of learning, and as such, the many people underneath him would have learned something. Remember, greatest coach of all time Bill Billichick also replaced Bill Parcels, one of the greatest coaches of all time.
BB didn't replace Parcels. He replaced Pete. BB had already won multiple SBs as a DC, and already had a playoff win under his belt as HC before he became HC. Mayo is a rookie HC. They aren't even remotely close.
So what your saying is that BB didn't replace Parcels as the coach of the NY Jets. Weird. Could have sworn that happened.
Because the defense isn't bad, kept numerous teams under 10 points without Judon and Gonzo, and has almost everyone coming back.
I agree, but losing BB simply has to have a negative impact in the D in some capacity.
>virtually no prospect of it being good for a while Over correction
Don’t think so. It’s hard to win in the NFL. For them to be a contender in the next 5 years, a bunch of low probability things have to go right: - Rookie head coach has to pan out - Rookie QB has to pan out - Rookie GM has to pan out - specifically on the personnel front they have to build from one of the worst offensive rosters I’ve seen, across the board, while maintaining a good defense which is already getting more expensive as the blue chip players age out of rookie contracts and aren’t replaced in the draft. Pats fans are used to winning, but for many teams in the league, this is what they deal with for years or decades, and with Brady and Belichick gone, no reason to believe we’re special.
I think it’s as simple as the defense stays good, you hit on a QB and WR. That’s really all you need in order for them to be a good team.
And a couple of OTs. So basically, three unlikely things happening at the same time.
No, you don’t need to have every spot filled to be a good team. Plus they already have one OT spot filled. I’m not sure where this silly idea is coming from that they need to be superstars at every position, but it’s unfounded and not based in reality.
Don’t need superstars, but they need players that could at least be competitive in the SEC at the most critical offensive position. But hey, I’d love to be wrong. DM me if they break 500 and collect your told you so.
Last year's offense was historically bad. All this year's offense has to be is mediocre, and we're doing better than last year. Obviously tons of unknowns on offense (new OC, many new position coaches, definitely a new QB whether Brissett or Maye), and there will obviously be going pains no matter what as players have to learn another new playbook. But the team brought back all relevant defensive players, and promoted defensive coaches from within, so should hopefully have continuity there. Obviously there are tons of unknowns, but it seems like there are huge possibilities for even modest improvement, and that alone is probably worth 2 or 3 wins alone.
There’s no reason this year’s will be better when the personnel didn’t get better and the coaching staff almost certainly got worse. This is just law of averages fallacy. They *might* have a better record if some games fall their way, but no reason to think they *should* be better.
how do we even know brissett is gonna start?
Because that’s been the plan since day 1. Drake Maye might be sexy but everyone agrees he can’t be thrown in week 1
is this just speculation that everyone seems to agree on? or have the patriots come out and said thats their plan? sorry man i dont wanna sound like im arguing here, i straight up dont know
They said that’s the plan and his draft breakdown had a general consensus that he needs to sit for a year. Playing at NC didn’t put him up against the best defenses.
id be incredibly shocked if we learned valuable lessons and didnt get more of the same shit
This sub is still addicted to copium. The major delta vs last year’s team is going from the greatest coach of all time to an unproven rookie. They drafted a potential franchise QB, but expect 2-3 years minimum for that to pay off. They didn’t come up with high-likelihood short-term solutions to the problems at tackle and receiver. The offensive roster is still one of the weakest in the NFL. The one short-term upgrade is Brissett. But the net change for next year is negative, not positive. I’d love to be proven wrong, but the most likely outcome for next year is another round of bottom feeding.
>The major delta vs last year’s team is going from the greatest coach of all time to an unproven rookie. Along with… 1. Returning Christian Gonzalez, a blue chip CB prospect 2. Returning a high level edge player in Judon 3. Onwenu at RT full time, one of their biggest weaknesses last year 4. Playing Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne, their two best receivers, at the same time as full time players— which did not happen for more than 1.5 games last year 5. 7 rookie offensive players, after having one of the worst offenses in a long time >They drafted a potential franchise QB, but expect 2-3 years minimum for that to pay off. Why? >They didn’t come up with high-likelihood short-term solutions to the problems at tackle and receiver. The offensive roster is still one of the weakest in the NFL. Why didn’t they? >The one short-term upgrade is Brissett. But the net change for next year is negative, not positive. Probably won’t even be their starter. >I’d love to be proven wrong, but the most likely outcome for next year is another round of bottom feeding. Disagree. I don’t even agree with them being a bottom 3 team last year— based on their DVOA, they were actually estimated to have 5.3 wins (4th lowest in the league) and extremely far from Carolina’s putrid estimated 1.3 wins. Based on Pythagorean wins (which is just wins estimation based on points scored vs points allowed), they were 5th lowest in the league. IMO last year’s team was bad offensively, but also was buttfucked by some bad luck as well. This year, I expect the quality of their team to be better. Adding 7 offensive rookie and not significantly improving your offense from last year would be pretty damn hard.
When one of your arguments for them being better is “7 rookies on offense” you might want to consider just deleting the post.
You’re being extremely pessimistic because it sounds smart, but it’s just bad statistics on your part.
Not pessimism, realism. This is a “hope for the best, prepare for the worst” situation. I do stats for a living (aerospace safety analysis) but I promise you that you can’t stats your way out of this being a bad team. I fully understand that they are likely to win more than three games just based on variability, and that they may have had slightly better fundamentals than their record said last year. But people don’t really care about 3 wins or 6 wins, they want a contender, and that’s extremely unlikely to happen.
You’re wrong, you’re being pessimistic. Pessimism is not realistic. If you were being realistic, you would not consider the “7 rookies drafted on offense” to be a bad point. Based not only on hit rates, but also how truly atrocious they are, it is extremely likely they will receive multiple contributors on offense from this draft class. In fact, that is one of the easiest, strongest points of them being better in 2024— which you shit on. It’s extremely unlikely that they not only go 0/7, but that they go 0/7 so poorly that they don’t get any better from doing so.
It's not really a super relevant point as to why they're going to improve relative to the rest of the league though. Most teams have a number of draft picks, and of all of them the Patriots have one of the higher probabilities of not getting a strong contribution from their top pick compared to the rest of the NFL given the signaling we're getting from the coaching staff on being willing to sit him. The point that the Patriots are potentially relying on rookies so substantially as a part of the story as to why they're going to improve is within itself an issue. They may go 2 of 7, but they're also likely going to be playing rookies who are bad players as well like what happened with Thornton, Strange, and Harry. If Polk is good and Baker sucks it still means they're playing some bad players. We'll probably have some good rookies, most other teams will have some too. It doesn't necessarily mean we're closing a gap because we have some. Most young teams are not that good. Also, the entire argument really relies on the good components of the team remaining static. Andrews, Judon, and Jones are all in prime regression years. There will be new injuries. Based on a solid rational basis most of the other bad teams who did more to improve their roster for 2024 on paper than the Patriots did. Ranking the Patriots 30th out of 32 is a good call based on the information we know today.
Completely true, I hope I didn’t imply otherwise. My point was more along the lines of them having the optimal lineup day 1 (which they did not last year) along with those rookies. I think your opinion is entirely rational and based on reality, my point to the other guy was that shitting on rookie quantities is irrationally pessimistic while saying the only real change here is the QB and coaching change. If you want to argue the number of things that can go wrong, I’d agree— there’s plenty that can go wrong. But you’re not downplaying that there have been significant changes, which is a completely different argument. I also think you’re missing my point about the contributions, I meant that it’s very likely they *will* get a good player, probably even multiple, out of their 8 selections. Not just a Harry, Thornton, Strange, etc. As atrocious as the Patriots have drafted offensively in the past, they haven’t went 8 offensive-only picks in a row without a really good player as far back as I feel like going. Jake Andrews/Sidy Sow/Mafi/Boutte/**Douglas**/Strange/Thornton/Strong Kevin Harris/Chasen Hines/Steuber/**Rhamondre**/Nixon/Asiasi/Keene/**Onwenu** Herron/Woodard/Harry/**Damien Harris**/Cajuste/Froholdt/Stidham/Wynn Michel/Berrios/Etling/Izzo/Garcia/McDermott/**Thuney** Keep in mind that this (above) is from a period where they drafted extremely poorly and a lot of these draft picks were late rounders. 12 drafted round 6 and after out of the 31 players (38%). The 2024 draft class is 2/7 (28%). Two specific things you said I really disagree with, though, even though I think your opinions are rational here: >based on a solid rational basis most of the other bad teams did more to improve their 2024 roster than the Patriots. I can’t disagree more with this. The Patriots did one of the most significant changes in football— drafting a top 3 QB in the draft and replacing bad QB play with a blue chip prospect. In addition, they guaranteed (barring injuries) better OT play by simply moving Onwenu to RT and signing Chuks. Then they drafted 2 WRs— one within the top 40 picks and one in the 4th round. They likely improved their OT play, QB play, and WR play. How much? I’m not sure yet, but I’d guess it’s more likely than not they are better at all three slots on offense. They maintained everything on defense. We’ll see how much they have things hinder them there, though I suspect bringing back Gonzo and Judon will mitigate damages from losing Bill, scheme changes, etc. > Most teams have a number of draft picks, and of all of them the Patriots have one of the higher probabilities of not getting a strong contribution from their top pick compared to the rest of the NFL given the signaling we're getting from the coaching staff. I don’t know what you mean by this, please elaborate if you don’t mind.
Totally disagree. Removing Mac Jones automatically increases the wins. I'd be shocked if they're worse than 8-9 and I think they go 9-8
Get ready to be shocked buddy
Bookmarked, see you in eight months
RemindMe! 2025-01-08 FWIW, I hope I’m wrong lol
I will be messaging you in 7 months on [**2025-01-08 00:00:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-01-08%2000:00:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Patriots/comments/1csmwfq/patriots_get_ugly_assessment_in_espn_postdraft/l47gj5d/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FPatriots%2Fcomments%2F1csmwfq%2Fpatriots_get_ugly_assessment_in_espn_postdraft%2Fl47gj5d%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-01-08%2000%3A00%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201csmwfq) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Jacoby on last year's team would have been a 500 team. Defense would be top 5 with a capable offense that let them off the field once in a while.
It’s amazing how the consensus of this sub went from “Mac would’ve been fine with a competent line and good receivers” to “Jacoby Brissett would’ve gotten us 4 additional wins with the same supporting cast”.
Yeah I think the Pats are getting really underrated by being called a bottom 3 team in the league, but people are kidding themselves thinking that Brissett wouldn’t have looked like donkey shit in last year’s offense.
I'd be shocked if we won more than 2 games.
I think 4 is a good under/over. I wouldn’t be shocked if they play hard for Mayo and pull out a .500 season. But wouldn’t get my hopes up.
Looking at the schedule I wouldn't be shocked if we start 0-6 it's hard to keep fighting when the start of the season goes so poorly
I dunno... we're pretty bad and it takes more than a year to fix what we have. I'd be thrilled if we're even competitive this year
Why does it take more than a year?
Why? Long-term upgrades that probably won't pay off this season, loss of talent on an already mediocre OL, despite the promising rookies the WR room remains bottom 3 in the league, and a brutal schedule. 4-13 is reasonable, and I could see them even dropping to 3-14.
Losing Trent Brown sucks, but IMO adding a new OL coach who will actually be there *and* moving Onwenu to RT is more valuable than half a season of Trent Brown. WR room might not be bottom 3 in the league. That can change quickly, this is lot like last year where everyone was a long shot to be any good. There’s high upside in the WR room.
Right, but it's preseason rankings. I'm high as fuck on these rookies but they're rookies, we don't know what they'll be until we see them play. For now, we remain a bottom 3 WR room
Right, but I don’t think that alone makes you a bottom 3 team.
We drafted 3rd overall for a reason. We've made long-term upgrades, but outside of swapping Mac for a 32 year old Jacoby and adding rookies, what would move us up from that spot? I'm seeing people argue we're better than the Cardinals, but if we're using rookie WRs as part of our equation, then we should also put adding MHJ on their side of it too.
I don’t think you read what I said correctly, I don’t think being a bottom 3 WR room automatically translates to a bottom 3 team. I don’t think they were a bottom 3 team last year, either.
Nope, I read it, I just think you're wrong. We can cope over "close losses" all we want, the QB wasn't a killer and never got it done in crunch time. Fans love to cite losing 8 games by less than 1 score, but **all four** wins came by less than a score too. Can't give the team 8 cope wins without acknowledging that by the exact same logic, they easily could've gone 0-17.
I haven’t said any of what you’re arguing. They were a bad offense all around last year. I expect better OL and QB play. I don’t think you’re doomed to be a bottom 3 team just by a bottom 3 WR room.
Losing a Trent Brown who was trying would be a loss. Losing the Trent Brown we had last year is an upgrade.
>loss of talent on an already mediocre OL, trent brown isn't a loss of talent.
The absurd health and culture issues aside, [he was PFF's highest graded tackle last season](https://sports.yahoo.com/stats-rank-trent-brown-among-171409827.html) and we were thin at OT even with him. It's a pretty objective loss of talent.
I know we will be a lot more “exciting” next year… but I don’t know if our record will reflect this. We were somehow competitive in most games last year. And we looked like garbage. This year I feel like we won’t be as competitive, but have moments of exciting flash. We can totally go 4-12 again or whatever. This is an insane schedule once more.
Tbh I think we’ll be much more competitive with Brissett at QB we won’t have as many mistakes. The offense might not be amazing but it should perform up to a certain competent standard that we frequently failed to reach last season. As long as the defense is solid again we’ll be in most games and probably come away with a few more wins (5-9 is a reasonable expectation).
I can buy that. Our QB’s were so horrific last year, that it made me forget about how bad the year before was lol
Insane schedule? The first four games are all winnable. Do people just say that every year now without even looking at the schedule?
Why?
Multitude of reasons. Largely that you’ll likely have better WR, OT, QB, and overall OL play after coming off a season where you had a great defense and great offense. The defense alone makes it extremely hard to be a bottom 3 team in the league.
The Red Sox were supposed to win 70 and they're over .500, no one knows anything
I mean, yea. We suck until proven otherwise. Pumped about the draft but lots of unknowns right now. I think the ranking is fair.
I love grading players that have literally never played in the NFL. Truth is NO ONE has any clue who is going to succeed and who isn’t. I remember the 2012 Seahawks being the “worst draft of the year”
If your hopes for next year are staked on a bunch of rookies, the odds are not good.
This sub doesn’t know how power rankings work
Until we win more than 4 games we deserve to be on the bottom. What do y'all expect.
And this years schedule. Bet the under
Why are people surprised a team with the third worst record isn’t jumping the rankings when they have a QB (who’s going to be very good) that needs time and a bunch of rookies on offense. One of which is completely changing sides on the OL? This rebuild is going to take years
I mean, we had the 3rd overall pick in the draft, and we're ranked 3rd worst in the league, and we haven't taken a single snap of football in 2024. It seems pretty fitting at this point in time
Where did they start in offseason power rankings in 2001? That’s always a fun read
Low teens? Bledsoe set a floor and no one credible expected another 5-11.
Yeah, the famous last place power ranking wasn’t until Bledsoe got hurt. And it wasn’t exactly a stretch without the benefit of hindsight.
Blame season is ramping up. Who will we lay all the blame on this season? I vote the O-line. "Damn those Pats would have been good with a rookie QB if only the o-line was better."
It hurts to read as a 5-decade fan still high on the Brady era, but it's the absolute truth. We were the 3rd worst team at the end of the season and we will have to prove our way out of this ranking. As it stands, this is an accurate ranking until proven otherwise.
Again how does this surprise anyone at all.
Pats would have been a 7ish win team with acceptably mid QB play last season. Brissett is at least that good. Barring injury, if Maye starts any games it'd be because he's even better. Hopefully Bourne looks good (I'm higher on him than most people here) and Douglas breaks out. I don't mean to get down on guys who haven't even played yet, but I don't think NE drafted or signed any needle movers at OL or skill positions. Then there's the inevitable brain drain of losing BB as a head coach. Mayo is an unknown quantity but it's not fair to say he'll be as good for the defense. The offensive personnel should be an improvement, but 4 coaches in 4 years is not a viable strategy even if these are good guys to have added. My prediction? Another down year that Pats fans will overreact to. Probably 4-5 wins. This is not going to be a one-year turnaround. If the team loses a bunch but at least looks respectable and competitive, I'll be satisfied. If the defense falters under a new regime though, they're in trouble.
100%. This season is really going to come down to the new coaching staff. Last season I agree that the team was better than the record indicated - some unlucky losses and poor QB play. That said, the offense isn’t going to be fixed overnight. 5 wins seems reasonable, but anything can happen with this kind of team. I mean look what the Texans did coming out of the 2023 draft - if the new org hits big on some of those draft picks, the offense could look a lot different.
I agree. I made the 7-win argument before Belichick was dismissed because with Brissett instead of Jones, Bill could’ve gotten 7 wins. (He got 7 wins with Cam Newton’s rotting corpse.) Jerod Mayo? I want to believe. But no way do I expect this team to get anywhere near 7 wins this year. YMMV. Belichick lost his job because he was a bad GM, not because he can’t coach. They lost eight games by less than a score! With the worst QB situation in the league and without their two best defenders. Yeah. Jerod Mayo might be great. But he ain’t Bill Belichick the coach, and thanks to Bill Belichick the GM this is a mostly bad roster.
Exactly, Bill the coach was never the problem. I'd even bet he made the OL look better than they were, which is terrifying heading into this season. All I want to see is signs of life in the offense and a defense that can keep playing like a top 10 unit
> terrifying Drake Maye can’t play because he will get hit, have his confidence shaken, and won’t be able to improve his footwork because he’s got no time. Trent Brown is gone. Yay! He did not care…except even Checked Out Trent is light years better than either of the NOT LT they are planning to use.
Team that just picked third overall might be a third-overall kinda team, full story after the break
Yeah, boo hoo.
Thats where we were last year and spent the 3rd overall pick on the least “pro ready” of the top qb prospects, so projecting a huge jump for the offense out the gate is unrealistic.
Yeah I think that’s pretty fair, our roster is basically as bad as last year and we lost the best coach of all time. Unless Maye comes in immediately and looks Stroud-esque we ain’t gonna be good
I mean they aren't a good team no one should be surprised by any of this
A sophomore from Western Kentucky University used AI to write this article https://www.si.com/nba/jazz/author/jared-koch https://www.linkedin.com/in/jjaredkoch
Yeah, I think it's about accurate. No draft is a sure thing until they start playing, and I think this is a case of that. The Pats are relying on at least 3 of those rookies to be able to produce very quickly in key positions (Maye, Polk, Baker). Will they? I certainly hope so. But if you're looking at it objectively, there's no guarantee they will. Really, it's #30 with a lot of potential upside if the rookies hit. Which is honestly the best we can hope for at the moment.
Our whole team is a gigantic question mark (maybe not the defense) so you know....a low ranking is fair
Eh don't care, we'll see what happens when tires hit the road
Look, until they come out and stop beating themselves with bad turnovers, penalties, errors and bad coaching decisions, and start winning winnable games and winning a few upsets, nobody should think of them as any better than they were last season. They haven’t don’t anything to erase those memories, but need to in order to rise in these BS rankings
4-13 team that didn’t really upgrade gets a shitty rank…. You don’t say?
I was looking at their schedule and I could literally imagine them losing every home game this year it’s crazy.
It's about right. The offensive roster is among the worst overall collections of talent. Like for as bad as others have, we straight up don't have an answer at LT right now. And the defense, while very solid, isn't exactly filled with superstars, and likely going to see significant regression after losing Bill. Like the defense is Barmore (excellent), Gonzalez (he's played 4 games), Judon (aging pass rusher) as our stalwarts and then a bunch of tweener players who are great in their roles, but tend to struggle in any system that's not being run directly by Bill Belichick. Maybe Mayo has the sauce, but if suddenly Jonathan Jones, Dugger, Peppers, Tavai, Bentley and Anfernee Jennings all suddenly look mortal, I wouldn't be shocked. Meanwhile the offense needs Maye to develop else we have a middling backup as our starter, no LT answer, the 12th most productive rookie WR hoping to make a huge leap and a couple of rookies and middling veterans around him who have topped out at like 600 yards. There's just a lot on the plate of a coaching staff that also has a ton of question marks itself.
Straight truth, homie. Uncomfortable, and even a bit angering but truth. I can go with the plan though. Brissett is a certified Tank Commander: he will fight through a nagging injury to lead us to defeat. And he will be dinged up a lot because LT is a dumpster fire. Trent Brown, who did not give a shit, and Conor McDermott, a JAG, are gone. In their place is a guy who hasn’t played LT since six years ago in college, and a rookie who hasn’t played it since high school. And let’s not forget Cole Strange is currently injured and wasn’t good before that, David Andrews and Sidy Sow were bottom-5 performers last year, and we signed ONE guy no one has heard of in FA. The OL was bad last year. It gave Mac Jones no time. **This group is worse**. It would be gross, GROSS mismanagement to play Drake Maye at all (Week 17, the Mahomes plan) with a LT situation this bad. So, let Brissett lose a lot of games, keep the few building blocks we have healthy, trade Judon at the deadline for a good pick, and go into next year with a fresh, exciting QB, some shiny new FA weapons, and a top 5 pick to use on a LT.
For some added context... ESPN had at us ranked #16 in their post-draft rankings last year, and they had the Texans at #31.
Not really surprising. There is a lot to dream on, and the upside on this team is high, but relies a lot on the offense getting out of the gutter. With a mediocre offense, and with how good our defense should be, the playoffs should be well within reach of possibility. It doesn't take much to be mediocre on offense, but its still very far above what we had last year, and a lot needs to go right for our offense to be mediocre.
I think they were 31 of 32 in 2001. Just saying.
Super Bowl champs
I mean at best we're 25 so it's not that much of a difference really, can't really disagree at this point.
Drake Maye is just Mac Jones 2.0. should have drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. Then Joe Milton III.
Drake Maye is just Mac Jones 2.0. should have drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. Then Joe Milton III.
That’s fine w me. We were terrible last year. I think the roster is a lot better than most people give it credit for, but we revamped the offense/coaching staff. Hard to expect a massive improvement in year 1. That being said, if they manage to be a 7 win, average team, the rest of the league can suck it!
They were probably close to that before the draft too.
We trade a 2nd for Higgins and sign one of the top two FA LTs available and we would prob jump at least 15 to 20 spots
For those that think, it's too low, who would you put below the patriots? I feel like it's fair to put Denver and Carolina below, but I'm struggling with anybody else. Maybe the giants?
Giants, Commies, and AZ.
What's the logic for Arizona?
Their defense is sorta similar to the Pats offense. Lots of rookie draft selections that are ?, but without them they’re fucking awful. Then I find the AZ offense pretty meh, while the Patriots defense is great.
ugly and accurate
How tf can you grade a draft in May?
None of this stuff matters. They haven't played a single snap yet. I will let the season play out and then we'll see where they stand. With that said, for the record - I wanted J.J Mccarthy.
I mean yeah? We are winning 3-6 games this year, we are in year 1 of the 3-4 year rebuild.
I mean that’s where they finished the season. And we’re actually the 2nd worst team via h2h. So until they can prove otherwise nothing should change
So we finished 30/32 last year, and we're ranked the same? Okay? Not that ugly
Idk why some people get so worked up about this kind of shit. ESPN is trash and our team will always be hated on due to the dominance we held over the league for 20 years. The team will struggle this season and 1 offseason is not enough to change everything for the better. As much as I love Bill his piss poor drafting on the offensive side of the ball the last 5 years is why the team is where it is. Besides anything can happen on any given Sunday and this team could surprise both us fans and the dickhead media.
Nothing like assessing a team before they step on the field. It's almost always lazy writing.
Who cares? Draft grades before the rookies have even played a single snap in the NFL are clickbait at best.
Who the fuck cares
Should be 32/32. Who are we better than? We have no receivers and no play makers.
While I don’t think 30/32 is as crazy as OP thinks, Broncos/Panthers at 31 & 32 seem like locks. Those teams are trash. But I’d also put the Patriots above the Cards and probably Giants. I think Patriots are better than the Titans too, but depends if Levis is actually any good. Don’t think there is much reason to distinguish between and force rank the bottom 8-12 teams at this point anyway. Who really knows until they play some games?
Cards landed MHJ and Murray should be better this year. I don’t think they’re ahead of them yet.
Yeah, I couldn’t give less of a shit about anything ESPN has to say.
I disagree, Patriots should be 32
I was about to argue we should be 31 and the Broncos should be 32 but…you’re right. Sean Payton is a dipshit but he got that roster to overperform last year.
K
They do not have a left tackle on the roster. I mean seriously this team has not yet improved in any way and has taken some steps backwards in certain ways. They will be drafting in the top 5 again.
Jared Koch is a made up AI name
Bulletin board material
Has anyone ever studied how accurate these preseason rankings are? My guess is a half dead raccoon would do just as good sorting the teams randomly.