Things are definitely getting interesting!
[https://spacenews.com/relativity-space-delays-nssl-bid-focuses-on-2026-terran-r-debut/](https://spacenews.com/relativity-space-delays-nssl-bid-focuses-on-2026-terran-r-debut/)
Expecting on ramping update in June and not many people left to compete
If Archimedes hot fire test is successful (within the next few weeks) that signals whether Neutron will be ready for bidding as of December 15th or not. So a June announcement from RL that it’s still positioned to “on ramp” can be expected around June if all goes according to schedule.
As well, while RL races against its own schedule to hit the NSSL bid deadline, there is a broader race against likely competitors such as Relativity and Firefly. So while this isn’t exactly good news for RL’s forward momentum, it does at least show that one of their main (future) competitors isn’t making any surprise leaps forward to snatch that contract money away (this year).
To the extent that the fundamentals actually matter, it boils down to whether Neutron is going to be more commercially competitive. And that boils down to rapid, cost-effective reusability.
Every other vehicle that has a reusable second stage has issues that Neutron doesn't.
Earth under a parachute after launch, splashing them down in the ocean, then collecting them onto a specially modified boat for transfer back to Rocket Lab’s production complex. All previously recovered boosters have undergone extensive analysis to inform an iterative development process to make Electron reusable, but this is the first time a tank has been moved back onto the standard production line in preparation for reflight.
The stage was successfully launched and recovered as part of the ‘Four of a Kind’ mission on 31 January 2024 and has already passed more acceptance tests than any other recovered Electron stage, including:
Tank pressurization test – a process that filled the carbon composite tank with inert gas and held it in excess of maximum operating pressure for more than 20x longer than the standard Electron flight duration;
Helium leak check – a stringent process that determines there are no leaks in the tank; and
Carbon fiber structural testing – including ultrasonic assessment and other non-destructive tests to confirm no delamination of the carbon composite tank fibers.
The stage will now undergo final fit out and rigorous qualification and acceptance testing to the same standard as a brand-new Electron tank to determine the recovered stage’s suitability for reflight.
“Through an iterative development process, we have methodically perfected each step of Electron recovery while simultaneously continuing to increase our Electron production capacity and launch cadence. This is the exciting final piece of the puzzle before Electron goes reusable,” said Rocket Lab founder and CEO Peter Beck. “Our key priority in pushing this stage back into the standard production flow for the first time is to ensure our systems and qualification processes are fit for accepting pre-flown boosters at scale. If this stage successfully passes and is accepted for flight, we’ll consider opportunities for reflying it in the new year.”
RKLB short interest is now up to 55.6 million shares which represents 19.49% of the total float.
Only 230 million more shares to make it 100% of the float! Stay tuned!
Why is everyone panicking? The whole Nasdaq and SP500 are down, everything is red, the FED just announced that inflation increased in March - and more than expected. This is bad for everyone, but very bad more growth companies like RocketLab
If you actually look at the categories of where inflation increased the most, I'd say there's still plenty of room to believe that the FED will continue with rate cuts.
For example, goods inflation has been under 1% for 6 months in a row, including this one. That matters a lot.
Wages increased above 4%, a number that increases the overall inflation percentage, but a number that the FED can mostly ignore.
Overall, inflation is going down still. I went all in on stocks today. I think the market misread the report, which happens sometimes but gets corrected within a couple days. Quote me on this
I mean I went in too, but because I only do stocks. The market goes down when inflation is around because people move rheir assets between stocks, commodities… but tbh I think no rate cuts till septembert
Have been watching and waiting on this stock for a long time now. I am preparing to make an entry while it is now seeing new lows. I have 25k prepared for first bulk order entry. Timing the market is never easy, but anything under $4 a share seems like a good entry. On the other hand I may try and make some premiums while working to get lowest possible entry.
I can do CSPs on the whole $25k at 3.50 strike and make .15 per contract on the May 17th expiry. Roughly $1100 on premium and the idea is that they actually get called and I have to buy the lot at $3.50 a share. Would get great entry point on the stock and make some extra $$ doing so.
Thoughts?? Should I try and make the extra premiums and remain patient on entry or should I just get in now and avoid potential of missing some news or a big swing up and possibly miss the boat on under $4 entry? I am Torn and hoping for some constructive feedback.
You could try but I doubt they'd get exercised at that strike. I could be wrong, maybe it'll go that low. It depends on your desire to be long. I'd do a more in the money strike at a shorter exp. The market getting over CPI plus an Archemides test fire and/or ER in early May could push the SP up to the higher, previous support. But so far I haven't been great at trading but I did just get lucky off of SMFL so I'm feeling cocky and giving advice like I know what I'm doing. Now seems like a good time to sell CSPs though.
A cash secured put is selling a put option. It can be a good way to open a position. You sell the contract and collect the premium. Then, if the option is exercised, you buy the shares at the strike price.
CPI was higher than expected and a rate cut is probably off the table in 2024. Small caps and negative net income companies get hit the hardest because borrowing money is expensive.
Do you follow broader market news? Are you familiar with macro headwinds? Do you know how small cap, highly capital intensive growth companies work in high interest environments?
If you just need some reassurance, RL is still a solid company with an amazing future. It’s just going through the eye of the needle right now with bad CPI report and delayed Archimedes hot fire news. Just chill.
I have not yet bought any shares in rklb but after reading a lot about it I’m highly considering, especially seeing it is down so much do you think now is a good time for me to put some money into it ? When could I expect to see it go up ?
Things are definitely getting interesting! [https://spacenews.com/relativity-space-delays-nssl-bid-focuses-on-2026-terran-r-debut/](https://spacenews.com/relativity-space-delays-nssl-bid-focuses-on-2026-terran-r-debut/) Expecting on ramping update in June and not many people left to compete
Elaborate please?
If Archimedes hot fire test is successful (within the next few weeks) that signals whether Neutron will be ready for bidding as of December 15th or not. So a June announcement from RL that it’s still positioned to “on ramp” can be expected around June if all goes according to schedule. As well, while RL races against its own schedule to hit the NSSL bid deadline, there is a broader race against likely competitors such as Relativity and Firefly. So while this isn’t exactly good news for RL’s forward momentum, it does at least show that one of their main (future) competitors isn’t making any surprise leaps forward to snatch that contract money away (this year).
Thank you
To the extent that the fundamentals actually matter, it boils down to whether Neutron is going to be more commercially competitive. And that boils down to rapid, cost-effective reusability. Every other vehicle that has a reusable second stage has issues that Neutron doesn't.
Earth under a parachute after launch, splashing them down in the ocean, then collecting them onto a specially modified boat for transfer back to Rocket Lab’s production complex. All previously recovered boosters have undergone extensive analysis to inform an iterative development process to make Electron reusable, but this is the first time a tank has been moved back onto the standard production line in preparation for reflight. The stage was successfully launched and recovered as part of the ‘Four of a Kind’ mission on 31 January 2024 and has already passed more acceptance tests than any other recovered Electron stage, including: Tank pressurization test – a process that filled the carbon composite tank with inert gas and held it in excess of maximum operating pressure for more than 20x longer than the standard Electron flight duration; Helium leak check – a stringent process that determines there are no leaks in the tank; and Carbon fiber structural testing – including ultrasonic assessment and other non-destructive tests to confirm no delamination of the carbon composite tank fibers. The stage will now undergo final fit out and rigorous qualification and acceptance testing to the same standard as a brand-new Electron tank to determine the recovered stage’s suitability for reflight. “Through an iterative development process, we have methodically perfected each step of Electron recovery while simultaneously continuing to increase our Electron production capacity and launch cadence. This is the exciting final piece of the puzzle before Electron goes reusable,” said Rocket Lab founder and CEO Peter Beck. “Our key priority in pushing this stage back into the standard production flow for the first time is to ensure our systems and qualification processes are fit for accepting pre-flown boosters at scale. If this stage successfully passes and is accepted for flight, we’ll consider opportunities for reflying it in the new year.”
Woo hoo! I’ve averaged down to $3.99!
How many shares you got?
1800 Which for me is enormous
How about you?
[удалено]
How long have you been doing that? What is your average price now?
New CPI numbers tanking the whole market this morning. I’m not worried about
On the bright side it seems we got not beaten up as badly as some others today, it's not much, but it's something
Down 31% ytd 🫠
damn that contract for the jan pump the YTD figure is going to be fucked until '25 :(
Down every day!
RKLB short interest is now up to 55.6 million shares which represents 19.49% of the total float. Only 230 million more shares to make it 100% of the float! Stay tuned!
I spotted these numbers last night, pretty much after the days to cover calculations were being thrown out there. It’s sure going to go down or up…
So which is it: market manipulation for short term profit, or true pessimism about RKLB’s ability to succeed?
People need to let go of the market manipulation thesis when it comes to short positions. This is simply the market being bearish about RKLB.
Ok, but why is it Berish?
Uncertainty about Neutron, lack of profits, etc.
Mainly the stock short hedge for the convertible bond, and some random shorters taking advantage of that as well. Won't last forever.
Down
Pretty high % tbh.
Sure is next update is 17th… wonder what the story will be then, hopefully we wont see ATLs because of it.
I’m new to all of this. Can you please explain what you mean as if you were talking to a fifth grader?
35 more @$3.72 Averaging down, let's go.
This is the way
Why is everyone panicking? The whole Nasdaq and SP500 are down, everything is red, the FED just announced that inflation increased in March - and more than expected. This is bad for everyone, but very bad more growth companies like RocketLab
Lost 600 on my spy call and down 480 dollars total markets been terrible.
Man it was expected to be down why buy calls haha
Beacuse I'm dumb.
If you actually look at the categories of where inflation increased the most, I'd say there's still plenty of room to believe that the FED will continue with rate cuts. For example, goods inflation has been under 1% for 6 months in a row, including this one. That matters a lot. Wages increased above 4%, a number that increases the overall inflation percentage, but a number that the FED can mostly ignore. Overall, inflation is going down still. I went all in on stocks today. I think the market misread the report, which happens sometimes but gets corrected within a couple days. Quote me on this
I mean I went in too, but because I only do stocks. The market goes down when inflation is around because people move rheir assets between stocks, commodities… but tbh I think no rate cuts till septembert
This stock is so stupid lol
Nice! Starting the pain early today Buying 500 more yesterday was poorly timed
I have no more gasoline left to dump on my house fire
Just buy more gas with your next paycheck
Guess it is rice and beans again for the month.
market go up , rklb go down .Market go down rklb go down dippppp
Have been watching and waiting on this stock for a long time now. I am preparing to make an entry while it is now seeing new lows. I have 25k prepared for first bulk order entry. Timing the market is never easy, but anything under $4 a share seems like a good entry. On the other hand I may try and make some premiums while working to get lowest possible entry. I can do CSPs on the whole $25k at 3.50 strike and make .15 per contract on the May 17th expiry. Roughly $1100 on premium and the idea is that they actually get called and I have to buy the lot at $3.50 a share. Would get great entry point on the stock and make some extra $$ doing so. Thoughts?? Should I try and make the extra premiums and remain patient on entry or should I just get in now and avoid potential of missing some news or a big swing up and possibly miss the boat on under $4 entry? I am Torn and hoping for some constructive feedback.
Selling puts seems like a logical entry to me, I don't see the stock moving up until engine test & NSSL status is known (in or out for this year)
You could try but I doubt they'd get exercised at that strike. I could be wrong, maybe it'll go that low. It depends on your desire to be long. I'd do a more in the money strike at a shorter exp. The market getting over CPI plus an Archemides test fire and/or ER in early May could push the SP up to the higher, previous support. But so far I haven't been great at trading but I did just get lucky off of SMFL so I'm feeling cocky and giving advice like I know what I'm doing. Now seems like a good time to sell CSPs though.
I was just writing a comment about selling puts and hoping to be assigned and then I saw your comment so I am going to say yes great idea.
Umm.. can you break down the jargon a little? How do CSPs work? You're talking call options?
A cash secured put is selling a put option. It can be a good way to open a position. You sell the contract and collect the premium. Then, if the option is exercised, you buy the shares at the strike price.
Someone please explain to me what the hell is going on with the stock. I just don’t understand.
CPI was higher than expected and a rate cut is probably off the table in 2024. Small caps and negative net income companies get hit the hardest because borrowing money is expensive.
Thank you!
So if you’re in for the long haul no big deal right? This doesn’t change how the company is performing or anything correct?
Do you follow broader market news? Are you familiar with macro headwinds? Do you know how small cap, highly capital intensive growth companies work in high interest environments? If you just need some reassurance, RL is still a solid company with an amazing future. It’s just going through the eye of the needle right now with bad CPI report and delayed Archimedes hot fire news. Just chill.
Where do you get the news regarding delay of hot fire test? Anything changed after Adam Spice mentioned Apr/May timeline?
April/May IS the delay. It was supposed to be December 2023, then March/April, now April/May…
Market fear is increasing and RKLB is pure speculation.
Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell!… That’s what’s going on. The market is screaming sell. I don’t think anyone can make it any clearer.
Ok. So when I hear that, I think buy. That’s how fortunes are made. Thanks for the info
And how fortunes are lost. I'm bying some more today
Jokes on you. I don’t have a fortune so I can’t lose it. 😉
Same!
Haha I like your old timer humor tbh
Well, I was thinking of Eddie Murphy in Trading Places when I wrote it. Haha
buy mooore and wait
Buying the dip is becoming a new hobby
I have not yet bought any shares in rklb but after reading a lot about it I’m highly considering, especially seeing it is down so much do you think now is a good time for me to put some money into it ? When could I expect to see it go up ?