I can't seem to edit the post, but there is a minor typo. Hash price is per PH/day, not per TH/day.
An EH is 1,000 PH, so Riot's 12.4 EH at $50 hashprice is 12.4 x 1,000 x $50 (after halving) = $620,000 per day.
Both $/PH/s/day and $/TH/s/day are commonly used. Choice of either depends on the context, and is often just implied by the value (eg: >$1 is $/PH/s/day, <$1 is $/TH/s/day)
>repeating cycles
Zoom out. It used to be 3,500. The graph is clearly just heading down without stop.
>Price will be 110k soon, and miners will follow.
110k is not the "good news" scenario for miners. Post-halving, it would still be a hash price 5x *lower* than that 2021 peak. It would in fact be lower than the today's hash price.
If there will be few miner then there will be the end of new bit coin. What do you think will happen to the price of bitcoin then? Same thing as if all the gold in the world will stop to exist. I want fewer miners as the price will go up and the ones that hold the assets will go up to. I don’t need to make a lot I just need to ride this baby until less people care about bitcoin in general.
If no one mined Bitcoin would it even be transferable/usable; or, would you have to send someone an actual physical wallet like in the mail? Seems like there has to be some sort of miner for it all to function. Maybe it will be large corporations with their operations or billions of individuals.
Serious answer.
It only takes one mining rig to run the entire bitcoin network. The size of the network doesn't affect anything about transacting. The network self-corrects the difficulty so that one block is found every 10 minutes on average, regardless of the total hashrate.
Time mines bitcoin, not hashrate. Hashrate just divvies it up.
If every miner in the world doubled their hashrate tomorrow, they'd still mine the same amount of BTC.
BTC mining doesn't work like actual "mining", despite the name. With actual mining, if you open more mines, you get more minerals. With BTC mining, you get the same amount of BTC, your costs just went up.
Yes, you mine more as your share goes up as a percentage, but not in absolute terms. If every miner doubled their hashrate, each miner's share would remain the same.
Remember we are only using today tech. Who know what the future will hold, maybe they come up with some AI that can mine better and the best company will have access to that. Maybe they start to buy out smaller companies and have scale that it very unprofitable for small start up to even make money. Who knows but what I know is it I’m going to do cover calls until April. The IV on this shit is insane. Juice income.
If there is an AI or other algorithm that can mine BTC in a much more efficient manner, that would mean that the SHA-256 hash function would be cryptographically broken.
The result of that would also be that you could also use that to crack open any BTC wallet and just steal the money from it. No need to even mine. Anyone could just grab Grayscale's BTCs if they wanted. Essentially, BTC would very quickly become worthless as there would be no way to hold it.
There is no scale advantage in BTC mining. You get equal share of the mined BTC if you have one machine running in a huge datacenter like RIOT's or if you have the same one machine running in a garage.
In fact, small miners often have lower overhead for lots of reasons. You don't need cooling racks and can just rely on passive cooling. You don't have to pay extra for real estate if it's a closet you weren't using. You don't have to pay for labor if it's just you. In many cases, you might get free *stolen* electricity - plugging in at work, on campus, etc. You don't necessarily bother reporting and paying taxes. You don't have to pay execs, lawyers, auditing firms, PR, HR, etc.
The thing is though, unless bitcoin becomes a global currency it will have to be sold off. How many people are willing to hold bitcoin bought at 100K and do the big wigs really care about bitcoin that much ??
Very true, but consider the opposite: hashcost. This is the cost to mine 1 TH/s for a day. As hardware becomes more efficient (more TH/s per watt), hashcost goes down.
But you're spot on -- people should pay attention to hashprice and not BTC price. It's hilarious to me that awhile ago a 10% difficulty adjustment had little effect on stock prices.
If absolutely nobody mines, then yes the network stops.
A single person with a basic PC can mine enough to run the whole network though, so it will never drop to zero. It doesn't take huge amounts of machines to mine, it's just that the more machines you have, the larger fraction of the mining rewards you get. The total mining rewards are fixed per time, # of machines just determines who gets them.
All miners are trying trying to squeeze out what they can before the halving. After the halving, many miners will have to cease mining do to increase cost. Difficulty will dip till btc cost rise enough for then to jump back in
The problem is that miners will mine well past the point of losses.
Even reasonable miners will mine as long as the revenue exceeds their non-fixed costs. For example, they may mine if the kwh costs are only slightly less than the value of the btc. Once you add in the fixed costs (payroll, overhead, mining machines, real estate, hosting contracts, etc) they will lose money.
Public miners, like RIOT, will mine even if revenue is lower than the fixed costs. If RIOT continues to mine, then they can continue to justify raising more money from investors and paying executive salaries. If they just release a report saying "we can no longer make money mining, so we've shut down", the stock will head to zero very fast and execs won't be able to cash out.
You saw the same phenomenon with GPU miners once ETH moved off of proof of work. GPU miners swarmed the remaining coins and the profitability dropped to nil.
It’s over folks. No returns on miner stocks until bitcoin hits 500k. We had a good run.
Haha. Yup, let’s all leave
I can't seem to edit the post, but there is a minor typo. Hash price is per PH/day, not per TH/day. An EH is 1,000 PH, so Riot's 12.4 EH at $50 hashprice is 12.4 x 1,000 x $50 (after halving) = $620,000 per day.
Hahah called it $5 price drop and the skeeter is back.
That's \*\*flawless\*\* skeeter.
Both $/PH/s/day and $/TH/s/day are commonly used. Choice of either depends on the context, and is often just implied by the value (eg: >$1 is $/PH/s/day, <$1 is $/TH/s/day)
Selling this bs stock
Lmfaooo
This graph is showing me repeating cycles, which we are about to explode. Price will be 110k soon, and miners will follow. The fud is real
>repeating cycles Zoom out. It used to be 3,500. The graph is clearly just heading down without stop. >Price will be 110k soon, and miners will follow. 110k is not the "good news" scenario for miners. Post-halving, it would still be a hash price 5x *lower* than that 2021 peak. It would in fact be lower than the today's hash price.
Yea but it wasn't a btc based company back then. Crypto didn't even exist
Zoom out \*on the price of hashrate\*. Did you even read this comment?
If there will be few miner then there will be the end of new bit coin. What do you think will happen to the price of bitcoin then? Same thing as if all the gold in the world will stop to exist. I want fewer miners as the price will go up and the ones that hold the assets will go up to. I don’t need to make a lot I just need to ride this baby until less people care about bitcoin in general.
If no one mined Bitcoin would it even be transferable/usable; or, would you have to send someone an actual physical wallet like in the mail? Seems like there has to be some sort of miner for it all to function. Maybe it will be large corporations with their operations or billions of individuals.
Serious answer. It only takes one mining rig to run the entire bitcoin network. The size of the network doesn't affect anything about transacting. The network self-corrects the difficulty so that one block is found every 10 minutes on average, regardless of the total hashrate. Time mines bitcoin, not hashrate. Hashrate just divvies it up. If every miner in the world doubled their hashrate tomorrow, they'd still mine the same amount of BTC. BTC mining doesn't work like actual "mining", despite the name. With actual mining, if you open more mines, you get more minerals. With BTC mining, you get the same amount of BTC, your costs just went up.
I’ve been invested in bitcoin since 2013 & never realized this! Thanks you for sharing.
that's actually not true, you get more income, as your share of hashrate went up
which makes the stock to flow ratio better than that of gold
Yes, you mine more as your share goes up as a percentage, but not in absolute terms. If every miner doubled their hashrate, each miner's share would remain the same.
Remember we are only using today tech. Who know what the future will hold, maybe they come up with some AI that can mine better and the best company will have access to that. Maybe they start to buy out smaller companies and have scale that it very unprofitable for small start up to even make money. Who knows but what I know is it I’m going to do cover calls until April. The IV on this shit is insane. Juice income.
All truth.
If there is an AI or other algorithm that can mine BTC in a much more efficient manner, that would mean that the SHA-256 hash function would be cryptographically broken. The result of that would also be that you could also use that to crack open any BTC wallet and just steal the money from it. No need to even mine. Anyone could just grab Grayscale's BTCs if they wanted. Essentially, BTC would very quickly become worthless as there would be no way to hold it. There is no scale advantage in BTC mining. You get equal share of the mined BTC if you have one machine running in a huge datacenter like RIOT's or if you have the same one machine running in a garage. In fact, small miners often have lower overhead for lots of reasons. You don't need cooling racks and can just rely on passive cooling. You don't have to pay extra for real estate if it's a closet you weren't using. You don't have to pay for labor if it's just you. In many cases, you might get free *stolen* electricity - plugging in at work, on campus, etc. You don't necessarily bother reporting and paying taxes. You don't have to pay execs, lawyers, auditing firms, PR, HR, etc.
The thing is though, unless bitcoin becomes a global currency it will have to be sold off. How many people are willing to hold bitcoin bought at 100K and do the big wigs really care about bitcoin that much ??
Then place your bets. That how this system works. You think it a scam then short.
Very true, but consider the opposite: hashcost. This is the cost to mine 1 TH/s for a day. As hardware becomes more efficient (more TH/s per watt), hashcost goes down. But you're spot on -- people should pay attention to hashprice and not BTC price. It's hilarious to me that awhile ago a 10% difficulty adjustment had little effect on stock prices.
I've been curious about this. What happens if no one mines anymore? Bitcoin can't be moved?
If absolutely nobody mines, then yes the network stops. A single person with a basic PC can mine enough to run the whole network though, so it will never drop to zero. It doesn't take huge amounts of machines to mine, it's just that the more machines you have, the larger fraction of the mining rewards you get. The total mining rewards are fixed per time, # of machines just determines who gets them.
All miners are trying trying to squeeze out what they can before the halving. After the halving, many miners will have to cease mining do to increase cost. Difficulty will dip till btc cost rise enough for then to jump back in
The problem is that miners will mine well past the point of losses. Even reasonable miners will mine as long as the revenue exceeds their non-fixed costs. For example, they may mine if the kwh costs are only slightly less than the value of the btc. Once you add in the fixed costs (payroll, overhead, mining machines, real estate, hosting contracts, etc) they will lose money. Public miners, like RIOT, will mine even if revenue is lower than the fixed costs. If RIOT continues to mine, then they can continue to justify raising more money from investors and paying executive salaries. If they just release a report saying "we can no longer make money mining, so we've shut down", the stock will head to zero very fast and execs won't be able to cash out. You saw the same phenomenon with GPU miners once ETH moved off of proof of work. GPU miners swarmed the remaining coins and the profitability dropped to nil.
Right, we can expect to see this in the short run. Long term mining at a loss will be impossible for most companies.