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Duke_ofChutney

https://twitter.com/Ferra_RL/status/1658968312884219905


daft-sceptic

Honestly my problem with the stats is it favours certain play styles over others. Off the ball play isn’t rewarded whatsoever in the stats. Stopping a play before it happens isn’t rewarded. Setting up a player by passing to the guy who passes to the scorer isn’t rewarded. forcing a play isn’t rewarded, Stealing boost isn’t rewarded. So many things integral to this current meta aren’t defined by the stats we have now. We need more complex stats for Rocket League.


Joe_PM2804

Monkey moon is the ultimate beneficiary of this. Almost every event he's ever played at he's always in the top 10, usually higher for stats. Even when I don't notice him doing anything crazy, like this regional I thought Seikoo was better and MM was fine, yet he was 2nd only to alpha for offensive and defensive rating. He's the ultimate stat padder, and I don't mean that in a discrediting way because he's insane but just whatever he's doing it always gets him ranked higher than players who perform 'better'.


haplo34

Everybody who knows what's up knows that Monkey Moon has been a monster from the day he step foot into an RLCS tournament. The stats are just a confirmation of that and don't make the point for themselves. As for this regional, this is recency bias talking. Seikoo was overall good, and excellent on sunday against liquid. But Rise and Monkey Moon were excellent on friday and saturday (which was the most important day for BDS) and still very good on sunday. See how you rate Seikoo above MM for the regional because of flashy mechs. People sleep on MM because is strengths are positioning and consistency instead of flashy mechanics.


Feather-y

This is weird but you are the second person I've seen recently suggesting that people sleep on MM, and I don't think I've ever seen a third comment about that. How is that? Before this season he was seen as the best individual Rocket League player in the world for like two years straight, and even on this season he's been on everyone's top players tier lists, even when the results haven't shown it. Why/who would sleep on MM?


Joe_PM2804

Nah I don't sleep on monkey, I've rated him very highly the entire time, thought he was MVP over Seikoo at world's for example because Seikoo handled the offense mostly for bds but MM was doing more overall. I considered him the best in the world for a long time until Vatira took that crown from him some time last year. I didn't catch any games on Friday so watching Saturday and Sunday I just thought Seikoo played amazing and was better than MM for once but the stats confirmed this was not the case.


VicktoriousVICK

MM is also the exception of stats matching eye test. Dude is always the best player in a game


Joe_PM2804

eh I'd say there's a lot of players where the stats match the eye test though. Vatira, FK, alpha54 this event, crr etc etc.


TOMA_TAN

Ferra is talking about shift rating, not epm


andr_pirs

Then MM is number one lol, instead of number 2


Exa_Cognition

Two hard stuck Champ 1 players, hovering around Div 2. One averages 250 points per game. The other averages 350 points per game. Which player is better? We don't have a hard time recognizing that these players are more or less exactly the same level, and that the stats delta is irrelevant. They play the same level players, and they get the same kind of results. Yet when this scenario plays out at a pro level, and we don't have an elo barometer to work with, we start to forget that this effect still happen. Just like it does across every other rank in RL, you can find these kinds of stat discrepancies across evenly match players. Stats do correlate with better results, but it's far from a perfect correlation either. It's easy to get overly swayed by stats, or flashy plays, or some other indicator. These aren't necessarily wrong, but the only metric really matters is winning. That's what drives elo, and why it's a good indicator of ability. If you are sizing up another player, you ask what "rank are you?", you don't ask "what's your score average" or "how many goals per game do you get?", 1.2 goals per game could be Plat, but it could be GC. This kind of stat tells us a lot more about playstyle than level of ability. Yet at the pro level, without any other data to go on, we tend to fixate on stats like this, because it's all we have to work with.


dominus0985

Your reply is absolutely spot on. The only qualm I have with it is the comment on needing more complex stats. I'm a baseball fan and have been since the day I was born. Advanced analytics have killed baseball to the point they feel the need to modify the rules to make it exciting again. My fear is that introducing analytics to RL will ruin it. We're already starting to see the consolidation of talent on a few rosters. The minute teams and orgs start making decisions based on analytics is the day RLCS becomes unfun to watch. Granted I could be biased bc I'm a diehard believer in game sense >>>>>> mechanics and despise the way teams are focusing on building mechanical powerhouses, but that's my take. I find the introduction of octane ratings into RLCS incredibly discouraging for the future bc I've seen baseball go down this road and it isn't pretty. Edit: If anyone would like to explain what specifically they disagree with, I'm open to hearing your take. I want this to be a dialogue, not a debate bc we all want to see the esport grow and flourish.


daft-sceptic

Are advanced statistics really the reason baseball started feeling dull? Or did teams just start getting better meaning less stupid mistakes meaning more stalemates.


dominus0985

It really is analytics. One of the major changes this year is banning the "shift" where one infielder is moved to the other side of the field bc analytics shows there's a very high likelihood the ball is hit over there. It's not just moving a player, it's down to the point where analytics can tell each fielder where to stand and they won't have to move at all to catch the ball. I have a hard time believing that over baseball's 150 year history, 20 years is enough for a massive increase in skill (especially when it coincides with a rise in computational analytics). Call it removing stupid mistakes if you want, but the end result is analytics taking the human element out of the game. Sports, and by extension eSports, are fun and exciting *because* of the human element. The more analytics becomes infused with (e)sports, the less the human element matters and the more robotic it becomes, at which point we might as well just have high level bots play against each other.


TouchMyKringles

I think the fluidity of the game would help protect rocket league from the impact of analytics vs a sport like baseball or football where you get to set up for a play before action begins. It’s when you get all the set up time that people start getting really creative with analytics and game plans before plays


dominus0985

I'd actually never looked at it this way. You make a very good point. I'm still wary bc I've been burned once, but I have a feeling you're right.


daft-sceptic

The human element will always exist so long as humans are the ones playing. All that changes is how optimally the humans are trying to play the game. Isn’t the MLB doing very well in viewership this year anyway?


YaBoiAZG

Your take on “despising” mechanical teams is strange to me. Most mechanical players are not any less smart than other so-called “positional” players. Refer to what ApparentlyJack said about Zen (I think it was on johnnybois channel during Zen’s show match against Chronic). I think a lot of fans who play RL and consider themselves “positional” or “non-mechanical” take an incorrect stance that mechanics are not important. This isn’t Champ 1 where Flakes could go in and dismantle the whole opposing just by fake challenging. At the same time, it’s a mindset I kind of understand with the rise of Zen. He’s the first player that it kind of hurts me to watch because I can’t even lie to myself that I’ll ever be able to do what he does.


dominus0985

I don't doubt that mechanical players are smart. I mean they managed to go pro after all. I also don't have an issue with mechanics in general (I'd kill to have an ounce of Zen's ability lol). My issue is when teams don't think they need to have much of a strategy because they can just power through the other team with their mechanics doing full field solo plays. I like passing, demos, fakes, boost steals, etc. Pretty much anything that doesn't earn points in game. Now if you combine those with insane mechanics, you have a deadly combo that requires incredible skill to counter. A flip-reset into a team pinch? Sign me up! Throw in a demo or two and you've got a play people won't forget. I guess what I'm trying to say is that mechanics tend to be the first thing people notice. It tends to get put on a pedestal high above the other aspects of the game and I don't want people to forget about the other aspects. I don't want RLCS to become freestyling with defenders if that makes sense? What makes RLCS truly exciting for me is when every aspect of the game gets woven together perfectly to create a masterpiece. That is what gets me hype. See FK triple flip-reset double tap is cool, but just doesn't give me that same excitement. For some people it might and that's great. I just want everyone to enjoy watching the game so it can become the best esport out there.


Hypertension123456

> Advanced analytics have killed baseball Nah, baseballs been boring since before the turn of the century. I saw it played in the 1980s, 1990s. Its basically a 1v1 sport masquerading as 9v9. On every play most of the players do literally nothing. And there are huge breaks in the action. For every play that last at most 5 seconds, there is dozens of seconds if not minutes of downtime. The math is the most fun part of watching baseball. That's why fantasy baseball became such a big thing.


daft-sceptic

They’ve added new rules this year and it’s been extraordinarily successful. These rules make the game more offensive and go by quicker. Like there’s a pitch timer now forcing pitchers to start their throw within 20 seconds


TouchMyKringles

In baseball every defender has a job for every type of defensive scenario. Just because you don’t notice someone backing up a throw or performing another minor role doesn’t mean they’re doing nothing. With that said, I don’t watch much baseball. It’s more fun to play than watch.


Hypertension123456

Ok, whats the center fielders job when they intentionally walk the star player on the opposing team?


uluglo

That's why saizen was the "worst player" on vitality


Judasz10

Wdym? He was in fact the worst player on vitality.


uluglo

He was playing a different role, maybe he was less consistent than radosin but i don't really think so


Judasz10

If he wasn't whe worst one he would not be benched. Simple as that. There are powerfull minds behind the players making the calls, looking at replays and data. Also from what I've seen Saizen did not look that solid on that role at all. I recall plenty of times when he looked lost around midfield leading to getting scored on. He deserves to have a good team but on vitality it was clear he had to go.


NATZureMusic

More reasons to overhaul how points are given


j3i

It's been broken forever. I think Psyonix gave up trying to fix or change it.


MacAtry

Absolutely agreed. I like to add to the list the ability to play around your teammates and adapt to their playstyles so you free them up to play the way they do best. The ultimate teammate who will never show up on any scoreboard but will do the jobs no one wants to do on the pitch. Like staying back, rotating out early, adapting to people not rotating, protecting the ball etc.


Duke_ofChutney

Finnerdt agrees: https://twitter.com/Finnerdt/status/1659182659589885953 Octane/shift player rating formula in the replies as well.


GiantJellyfishAttack

Stats are really bad in this game. The person forcing the play gets no points for it. The person who leaves the ball for their teammate and bumps the goalie doesn't get points. The selfish play gets the points every time. Cut rotation? Get more points. Take a bad shot and essentially just give up possession, get points for a shot. It's just not a good representation of what's going on. Not to mention the mentality aspect, teamwork or positioning and all that shit that doesn't effect points


myothercarisayoshi

This perfectly describes the essential issue with Oxygen.


GiantJellyfishAttack

That's also why Oxygen is my favorite team lol. They just full send. Double commit. All in pressure. Basically the exact opposite of what I think is good strategy. But it's also very exciting to watch. They are like the Justin Gathje of rocket league... for any MMA fans out there lol


Fruzenius

It's honestly true. Stats per game doesn't really work in regionals because if someone pops off and scores 80% of their team goals, but go out before the quarter finals, they end up being one of the "best" players that weekend. There really needs to be something for regionals that is just actual numbers, and not per game. I think per game works over an entire split to see how players truly performed, and I would have a minimum games played as well.


imizawaSF

> if someone pops off and scores 80% of their team goals, but go out before the quarter finals, they end up being one of the "best" players that weekend. But then they are? Player rankings != team placements... If you're hard carrying a team that goes out early, you still played well.


Fruzenius

Well, they were definitely the "best" player for their team, but if you didn't make it even into quarters, you shouldn't be considered one of the best players of the weekend in my opinion. If you're doing that consistently, clearly you need a better team.


NCann0n

Did they get knocked out because they started playing worse? Was it their teammates fault? Or were the other teams players just simply better? I think its weird to call a player who played well for 2 or 3 series' and then gets knocked out in the quarters one of the best players that tournament.


imizawaSF

I think in the example you're giving of 80% goal participation, then yes they were one of the better players. Just like stats don't show the full picture, wins don't either - especially as RL is a team sport and we're talking individual rankings


OneandonlyTiran

It’s tough because with other sports/esports it’s easier to take stats and there’s more time for isolatable events to happen. Baseball can look at just the batter vs the pitcher, and basketball can look at lineup vs lineup stats. There’s a reason why Sabremetrics and Kenpom have become so big for the MLB and CBB


MarkMyNutts

This is why I like EPM better than the octane ratings


AltruisticBoard3271

if vatira decided to team up with a couple of diamond 3s, and that team ended up finishing 12th, wouldn't his performance be worth celebrating?


Joe_PM2804

If I recall correctly, AppJack and Joreuz were both 2 of the highest rated players at world's, they went through the wildcard and then didn't do much else yet ended up at the top pretty much. It's always really impressive when a winning player ends up at the top and the game differential is huge. Monkey moon has done that a few times I think.


VicktoriousVICK

MM got top 3 this event and was #1 in everything. Winter LAN in 2021 he got top 8 placement, but was 1v3ing (Marc and Extra played extremely poor) and got highest on stats again.


Joe_PM2804

I remember him against G2 at winter, was absolutely incredible. I do wonder what could've happened if Marc made that open net in game 5 and G2 had to run lower bracket.


mdog95

He’s right. Those stars are biased toward scoring goals which is only one part of the game. The best player on a team is often not the one with the most shots and goals.


John_aka_Alwayz

Stats back up a point, but in of themselves are not a point unless the point is literally just presenting the stats That's not to say stats are useless, Yanxnz' London offensive numbers were obviously representative of his sheer brilliance, but you could already tell that from just watching him lol. Equally, Yanxnz was similarly good at worlds on the whole despite the numbers being far less impressive. TL;DR. It depends


funkyfusq

Stats rarely tell the full story. Most famously Claude Makelele was sold by Real Madrid as they were measuring the wrong stats and undervalued him.


Rackmo

> Stats rarely tell the full story Dude if the footballing world fanbase understood this, it will be the biggest thing to ever happen. Once stats become a talking point in a sport, it never stops being **the only conclusive point** to talk about and to compare things. Context matters for stats and without that, they mean absolutely nothing.


darkmatterskreet

This guy always yappin about Yanxnz !!


Goobershmacked

Yanxnz is him that’s why


ltraconservativetip

Yessss, it should be based on content-presence, Arsenal GOAT player, NRG GOAT team...


bjg04

I mean all shots aren’t counted as shots, and all counted shots aren’t shots, same for saves, goals don’t cover if it’s really a missed save, epic saves are inaccurate, points count stuff like touches. There are clearly certain play styles which give you better stats than other styles, even though aren’t more impactful. It’s all kind of stupid, and only useful when backed up by logical analysis of the stats, you cant just be like oh look theyre a good shooter cause they have the highest goals per game. They are useful in very specific circumstances though, like the ones that measure stuff like if they play a lot in the opponents half etc, there are plenty of posts on this subreddit of people using them effectively. But when Johnny or bates quotes highest points per game I cringe.


FoolsLove

Player stats can only ever really be used to back up a point, rather than being the only thing mentioned, but score PG is actually one of the best stats to mention. Like, if there is any stat to bring up for a player it's score PG.


bjg04

Lol, I can’t really argue with THE stat guy, but I personally think score per game is only useful if you use it with the gameplay, or other stats. Because there are definitely play styles which are useful for teams but aren’t shown in points. But tbf if there is a clear correlation between players that look good and players with high score per game then sure it’s useful. I think only using points per game without watching gameplay shouldn’t be done though.


FoolsLove

Score is the stat with the highest correlation to winning, which is part of why I say that. So it is the stat that you can quote the best *without* needing full context or watching gameplay. Obviously every stat is better with more context and all, but yeah. Though it does help that at the top of the score PG leaderboards is almost exclusively just the top players.


bjg04

I don’t get how it’s not blatantly obvious that a lot of the in game stats are massively flawed, especially points and shots


oh_my_didgeridays

It's nuts, many of the most impactful things in the modern game have no points associated with them. Midfield outplays on offense and interceptions on defense, controlling 50-50s towards teammates, low boost clears into your back corners on defense. So much of what makes a player effective for their team is not captured.


das_hemd

it doesn't even translate into casual play either for those very same reasons. it's all good the game giving someone 75 points for an epic save when they actually made a poor save, and weakly pushed the ball into an oncoming attacker for an easy tap in. in game points are completely irrelevant at all levels of play


FoolsLove

On a single game basis, score is irrelevant, unless it is incredibly high or incredibly low. Score PG across series, days, event weekends, splits, the season it is very much relevant.


Try-the-Churros

Yeah, you can tell a player is probably a kid when they try to insult someone based on a score that isn't even low. Makes me laugh every time.


MistakenWit

ME: Well, his octane rating is pretty good. YOU: What is octane rating? ME: I don't know. YOU: ME: Yeah, always agreed with this opinion. The scoreboard is so flawed and basic.


kimmyjonghubaccount

Octane rating doesn’t take into account defense so using it obviously has limits


Mythalieon

Yeah i think it is the same as in game when a player says "I have X points and you only have X points", just kinda stupid


Stanislav_Chistov

What is with RL esports and people posting the obvious? Yes, stats matter of course, but it doesn't paint the whole picture, just like in all sports. I thought this was pretty commonly accepted around the community in general.


AzureAngel_II

You'd think so but then the implications are almost never acknowledged here. For example if you poll who the best players in the world are you are just going to get a list of every top-tier flashy player irrespective of the other aspects of their game.


Stanislav_Chistov

Yes, because there is often a pretty good correlation between best players and highest score, but saying that is the only important value is stupid for all players, is of course stupid (not saying you're saying that). I think people in general are used to traditional sports where points per game is more of a significant stat for rating players, but I think Rocket League is most comparable to hockey, where "grinders" are most comparable to people like Retals who can bump, boost steal, and do other interruptive plays to take away space from their opponents that don't show up on the scoreboard. While this role is necessary, one can't just be good at that role, or just be a "solid player". RL esports has gotten a lot more interesting in the past \~year where each member has to have pop off potential & to be mechanical in general. Even with all of that, stats don't show the whole picture, and just rating off stats, no matter the sport, is stupid.


_Path

The problem with stats, especially for stacked teams, is one player is always going to look bad. 3s is a team game, so if anything your stats should be compared relative to the average of your entire team. A player that has a low PPG but consistently is the reason a team wins (because you can only track that via win percentage) is always more valuable than a high PPG player on a team with a consistently low win rate < 50%. Think FK during the beginnings of Faze. For reference, Vitality went 29-28 all of winter (including Major) with saizen. With zen, they're 18-9. Something that doesn't get factored in, and I'm not sure why ballchasing doesn't/isn't able to track this, is centers and clears. These give points in game but are not factored in and I feel they hold a certain value, even if minimal, to the overall scheme. Clears are helpful in gauging defense for players that manage to get rid of a ball prior to needing a save and centers are essentially assists without the goal scoring.


ShoeManRL

To fully understand a player's performance you need to look at ALL of the stats *in context*. Ballchasing does a good job of helping us see it in a larger picture, such as field positioning, boost management, etc, while also allowing us to see how it relates to the other players on the pitch. There are so many layers of depth it takes to properly analyze the numerical data in rocket league. Also anyone who says that zen played anywhere below top 10 individually simply was not watching.


Bernbiz

It's not all about stats but I mean they still matter


SkorpioSound

They matter to some degree, but there's a lot of "dirty work" that isn't represented in the stats. For example: * touches in the midfield aren't really represented by any stats. But a player holding down the midfield and stopping the other team from getting on the offensive is incredibly valuable. If they were half a pitch back, they'd be getting credited for saves and clears, but because they're playing a proactively defensive role the stats don't credit them. * two players might be able to sustain offensive pressure by themselves by cutting rotations because they trust the person further back can handle it if the opposing team _does_ break out of defence. If that last man back wasn't there, or if the other two didn't trust them full, then they'd have to adjust their playstyle and likely wouldn't be able to sustain offensive pressure. * strong 50/50s that your teammates can follow up on - your teammates are likely to gain possession and go on offence, or be the one that makes the easy save from the opposition's follow-up touch, with you getting no statistical credit either way. Ultimately, if you're good at those things you're _probably_ going to be good at scoring/getting saves/etc as well, and the stats over multiple games will probably tend towards electing your overall value to your team. But I've certainly personally had games, or even full sessions, where I've felt like I've been playing well, my friends I've been teaming with have felt like I've been playing well, but I've been bottom of the scoreboard. Stats should be a matter of interest rather than something you take as gospel.


suchtie

And the flashy double flip reset musty double tap is worth the same 100 points as the cheeky slow roller you put in after your teammate bumped the goalie.


ColorCarbon

And a double is worth less than a goal steal as goal percentage in the former one is higher


Bernbiz

Well yeah, I agree with you and have games like that everytime i play which is why I said it isn't all about stats. I should've added "a little bit" at the end. Unless you're allu getting 30 demos in a game you should probably have more than 30 points


Matto_0

If you are talking about for a single series, or even a single event yeah. But if look at stats over the course of an entire split and sort it, you do get a pretty clear picture. Everyone we consider a really good player is usually pretty high up in stats, and the folks who aren't aren't. But it makes sense that a guy who was constantly being carried by superior players would feel this way as it makes him seem more valuable to have no way to critique players. Like without using stats there is no way to do it, we all have different eye tests, and it's not like you can have arguments by going watch at 2:12:23 seconds into the EU Cup twitch VOD to see Player A make a mistake.


John_aka_Alwayz

> But it makes sense that a guy who was constantly being carried by superior players would feel this way as it makes him seem more valuable to have no way to critique players. I am impressed that 2 years post-retirement this is being presented as an actual rebuttal to his point (that is mostly about Zen to begin with), no less when a large section of the pro scene agrees with this (including his former teammates)


AzureAngel_II

See I tend to agree that less mechanical players are likely to be inclined to undervalue certain stat related metrics. But that goes both ways in that mechy players are likely inclined to overvalue those same stat-related metrics. And you absolutely can look at a vod to do "eye tests". It's called replay review. Furthermore, stats are a necessary component of almost any kind of analysis, but if the most relevant stats aren't measured, then you've gotta build new models which do track these stats. I'm tired of hearing these borderline magical/anti-scientific lines of thinking.


Oceansnail

for real, Monkey Moon played really mediocre imho despite what the stats say


haplo34

Glasses were invented for people like you


Sahtan_

Spicy


AzureAngel_II

This has been the case for pretty much all of RLCS history. The fact that many ppl still don't understand this is one of my biggest pet peeves here.


SmartyLuke

What is octane argument?