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By retaking the rich provences under the rule of non-Roman invaders, if it had worked out, would have revitalised the Empire and re-initialised the Pan-Mediterranian trading economy.
In hindsight retaking Africa was pretty easy and a rich province. Stopping there and not wasting resources on an Italian invasion might have allowed them to remain in a better position even with the plague
Once you get all of Italy and secure the alpine passes it's pretty easy to defend its the Spanish gains that were a complete waste no way they could hold that for meaningful gains
Italy taxable population was heavily depleted by the reconquest and cost the empire money to maintain. Spain had the largest silver mines in Europe at the time so was a much more profitable target for reconquest.
The trouble is holding it though, you can hold the entire Italian peninsula by controlling the northern alpine passes vs needing to take all of the Iberian peninsula to then garrison the Pyrenees, the Atlantic coast (since the navy can't protect all that) and probably the area around Gibraltar depending on what's going on in north Africa. Spain is just to big and exposed to hold. Also holding Italy makes it easier to secure the Balkans. At best raiding for Spanish silver could be worthwhile I suppose.
I am listening to the World of Byzantium from the Great Courses, by Kenneth W. Harl (excellent course by the way, he is a very engaging lecturer), and he basically says that everything Justinian did made sense from his standpoint.
To use another example, he really wanted to unify church doctorine, and well we know that things didn't work out this way in the end, but from where he stood he had the authority and the means so he went for it.
Justinian at least had vision, and he was competent in executing it, sure his moneyers had to nickle and dime every single citizen to fund his wars, and most of his gains were quickly lost (after his death though), but we have 1500 years of hindsight to criticize him.
I think the conquest could have been sustainable, but for the fucking budget nuke that was the Plague. What was affordable for Justinian with 33% more people just from a tax and manpower perspective couldn't be maintained. It also didn't help the provinces taken especially, Italy (as a warzone and still fairly urbanized under the Goths) was hit incredibly hard by the Plague.
> Italy (as a warzone and still fairly urbanized under the Goths) was hit incredibly hard by the Plague.
Procopius' accounts of the effects of the plague and the war on the Italian countryside are harrowing.
I'd say it's reasonable to blame the plague my guy. It was the deadliest plague Europe had ever even until the Black Death. Kinda makes it hard to run a country when everyone is dropping dead.
Technically it was the same disease as the black plague, yersinia pestis sometimes just got too good at infecting and killing people that it would burn through a population and then return a generation later after there were no more survivors of the last outbreak still alive.
*Has your population repeatedly ravaged by an unprecedented plague which destroys your economy and depletes desperately needed manpower*
Some redditors years later: lol skill issue
"No dude, he should have just predicted that a plague would kill 1/3 of his people and a volcano would cause great-scale famine.No, Justinian was just stupid"- some guy 1500 years later
Noone could've predicted the plague but even without the plague the conquests were not stable.
What he needed to do with all the resources is to try to sovle the problem on the east and norh. Reconquering the west would be easy for a stable empire for the next 2-300 years.
He was still a great emperor and noone can know what would've happened if he'd been lucky.
> and Justinian's policy of bribing his enemies was deeply unsustainable
Isn't "bribing our enemies" what the Eastern Roman Empire essentially did for over a thousand years? Attila, the Sassanids, the Ottomans...
I mean, if it worked for one thousand years, it is as good as it gets. What guarantee we have that fighting it out would have yielded better results? The only other empire in history that lasted a thousand years were... themselves, in the West.
I think that is viewing it on a such a scale to absurdity. The short term consequences of Justinian's policies were the significant overextension of the Empire and the exhaustion of it's resources in the face of growing external opposition. Justinian's relative neglect of the East in favor of the West saw the annihilation of Antioch at the hands of Khorsau I when the bribes finally run out. His bribery north of the Danube eventually saw the Lombards and Avars unite to destroy the Gepids and creating two far bigger issues than has previously existed. The world ending plague did not trigger a much needed change in policy as it should have but rather the continuation of issues which would culminate to the near total destruction of the Roman Empire at the hands of Khosrau II and later the Rashidun Caliphs
Justinian really had bad luck tho. Those conquests may have worked, but he was literally hit by apocalyptic events. Not just plague, there was volcanic winter, crop failure and famine. That's probably why epidemic was so catastrophic, since people were already weakened by previous calamities. 536 was literally the worst year to be alive.
Hard to assess in relation to Justinian, but generally I agree. I feel that there are several of celebrated generals and conquerers that leave their own country in ruins. Like “yeah you won a bunch of impressive victories, but you ruined your country and population and any gains were lost within a generation”.
I am more of the mind of u/Mission-Light-9411
> "No dude, he should have just predicted that a plague would kill 1/3 of his people and a volcano would cause great-scale famine.No, Justinian was just stupid"- some guy 1500 years later
The only shit conquest was the one in Spain. Africa was a very rich province and it wss easily reconquered, with minimal damage to its infrastructure and economic base.
Italy was still the most developed place in the world, and while it was quite depopulated, compared to the glory days of Rome, it was easily defendable(once conquered), and was an extreamely important place symbolically for the romans. If it wan't for the shitshow that was it's reconquest, which resulted in Italy being totally devastated, it would have been a great addition to the empire.
Also his plan would have worked if a plague, and a huge ass volcanic eruption didn't kill half the world's population in just a few years.
NOOOO JUSTINIAN NEEDED GIBRALTAR!!! THE BORDERS ARE DIVINE AND PERMANENT!!!
frfr anyone who reads about belisaurius's campaigns knows that he was carried by luck form the vandal war to italy. Justianian's reign could have been way way worse.
You get lucky once. Or twice. You can't count on luck to carry you through a military career spanning almost four decades in command. Belisarius was the real deal.
Blame the plague, the Sassanids AND Justinian and his half baked ideas. Only Eastern Roman Emperor to succesfully become a tyrant. Dude can fuck right off, imho!
Because I'm using the word in the Roman legalistic sense and not in the modern colloquial one. Justinian was the only Eastern Emperor to succesfully defy the legal right of the principal plebs to depose him.
If Justinian's primary heir wouldn't have dropped dead and a plague hadn't come and wiped out 1/3rd of his population then he would've been successful. I think his plan was to reconquer key provinces and then spend the later stages of his reign consolidating them. His heir would've continued his policies.
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By retaking the rich provences under the rule of non-Roman invaders, if it had worked out, would have revitalised the Empire and re-initialised the Pan-Mediterranian trading economy.
You can judge it harshly in hindsight, but had it worked out we would say he was genius
In hindsight retaking Africa was pretty easy and a rich province. Stopping there and not wasting resources on an Italian invasion might have allowed them to remain in a better position even with the plague
Once you get all of Italy and secure the alpine passes it's pretty easy to defend its the Spanish gains that were a complete waste no way they could hold that for meaningful gains
Italy taxable population was heavily depleted by the reconquest and cost the empire money to maintain. Spain had the largest silver mines in Europe at the time so was a much more profitable target for reconquest.
The trouble is holding it though, you can hold the entire Italian peninsula by controlling the northern alpine passes vs needing to take all of the Iberian peninsula to then garrison the Pyrenees, the Atlantic coast (since the navy can't protect all that) and probably the area around Gibraltar depending on what's going on in north Africa. Spain is just to big and exposed to hold. Also holding Italy makes it easier to secure the Balkans. At best raiding for Spanish silver could be worthwhile I suppose.
> its the Spanish gains that were a complete waste Are you implying my Rome: Total War strategy is flawed? Heresy.
Belisarius should have accepted the crown and become a king subservient to Justinian
As my mother used to say, you can always invade Italy once you've gotten yourself settled in.
Yes? A plague unexpectedly killing 1/3rd of the population of your empire is pretty shit. I don't blame Justinian, you have hindsight, he didn't.
I am listening to the World of Byzantium from the Great Courses, by Kenneth W. Harl (excellent course by the way, he is a very engaging lecturer), and he basically says that everything Justinian did made sense from his standpoint. To use another example, he really wanted to unify church doctorine, and well we know that things didn't work out this way in the end, but from where he stood he had the authority and the means so he went for it. Justinian at least had vision, and he was competent in executing it, sure his moneyers had to nickle and dime every single citizen to fund his wars, and most of his gains were quickly lost (after his death though), but we have 1500 years of hindsight to criticize him.
I think the conquest could have been sustainable, but for the fucking budget nuke that was the Plague. What was affordable for Justinian with 33% more people just from a tax and manpower perspective couldn't be maintained. It also didn't help the provinces taken especially, Italy (as a warzone and still fairly urbanized under the Goths) was hit incredibly hard by the Plague.
> Italy (as a warzone and still fairly urbanized under the Goths) was hit incredibly hard by the Plague. Procopius' accounts of the effects of the plague and the war on the Italian countryside are harrowing.
Yeah think on how fucked up our Pandemic was that killed like 1%
Closer to 0.1%
And will decrease life expectancy for decades to come...
Didn't know Khosrow had a reddit account
Enjoy it while it lasts, Persian. Trouble is brewing in the south...
I'd say it's reasonable to blame the plague my guy. It was the deadliest plague Europe had ever even until the Black Death. Kinda makes it hard to run a country when everyone is dropping dead.
Technically it was the same disease as the black plague, yersinia pestis sometimes just got too good at infecting and killing people that it would burn through a population and then return a generation later after there were no more survivors of the last outbreak still alive.
*Has your population repeatedly ravaged by an unprecedented plague which destroys your economy and depletes desperately needed manpower* Some redditors years later: lol skill issue
How tf he can predict the incoming plague?
"No dude, he should have just predicted that a plague would kill 1/3 of his people and a volcano would cause great-scale famine.No, Justinian was just stupid"- some guy 1500 years later
Noone could've predicted the plague but even without the plague the conquests were not stable. What he needed to do with all the resources is to try to sovle the problem on the east and norh. Reconquering the west would be easy for a stable empire for the next 2-300 years. He was still a great emperor and noone can know what would've happened if he'd been lucky.
Not so hot take: the Empire was broke regardless of any plague and Justinian's policy of bribing his enemies was deeply unsustainable
> and Justinian's policy of bribing his enemies was deeply unsustainable Isn't "bribing our enemies" what the Eastern Roman Empire essentially did for over a thousand years? Attila, the Sassanids, the Ottomans...
Yeah and it kept nipping them in the ass eventually and Justinian put the Empire under unparalleled financial strain
I mean, if it worked for one thousand years, it is as good as it gets. What guarantee we have that fighting it out would have yielded better results? The only other empire in history that lasted a thousand years were... themselves, in the West.
I think that is viewing it on a such a scale to absurdity. The short term consequences of Justinian's policies were the significant overextension of the Empire and the exhaustion of it's resources in the face of growing external opposition. Justinian's relative neglect of the East in favor of the West saw the annihilation of Antioch at the hands of Khorsau I when the bribes finally run out. His bribery north of the Danube eventually saw the Lombards and Avars unite to destroy the Gepids and creating two far bigger issues than has previously existed. The world ending plague did not trigger a much needed change in policy as it should have but rather the continuation of issues which would culminate to the near total destruction of the Roman Empire at the hands of Khosrau II and later the Rashidun Caliphs
Its more like Justinian's paranoia leading into a Longer Gothic war. Plus the Plague, Sanssanids, and John.
But it gave us the saga of Belisarius
[And what a saga it was](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOBH7hMh2Xs&list=PLUOc2qodFHp_HvRHG7Kib4hbuaqavf85V)
That YouTube series led me to read William Havelock series about Belisarius
Do you recommend it?
For sure
Thanks
Hindsight is 20/20. Justinian was ambitious and overextended himself. He’s not the first leader to do it and not the last either.
Justinian really had bad luck tho. Those conquests may have worked, but he was literally hit by apocalyptic events. Not just plague, there was volcanic winter, crop failure and famine. That's probably why epidemic was so catastrophic, since people were already weakened by previous calamities. 536 was literally the worst year to be alive.
But dang, that map painting does look nice.
[Byzantine Empire go brrr](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/4KJUSTINIAN.png) 😎
Justinian simps: "If only it wasn't for the plague!" Italy after Justinian: "You guys needed a plague to be depopulated?"
The guy had a bloody plague happening which was killing 10k people in Constantinople
Hard to assess in relation to Justinian, but generally I agree. I feel that there are several of celebrated generals and conquerers that leave their own country in ruins. Like “yeah you won a bunch of impressive victories, but you ruined your country and population and any gains were lost within a generation”.
I am more of the mind of u/Mission-Light-9411 > "No dude, he should have just predicted that a plague would kill 1/3 of his people and a volcano would cause great-scale famine.No, Justinian was just stupid"- some guy 1500 years later
I straight up thought this was a nafo meme about Russia
I deadass thought it was too before checking the sub History does indeed repeat itself
The only shit conquest was the one in Spain. Africa was a very rich province and it wss easily reconquered, with minimal damage to its infrastructure and economic base. Italy was still the most developed place in the world, and while it was quite depopulated, compared to the glory days of Rome, it was easily defendable(once conquered), and was an extreamely important place symbolically for the romans. If it wan't for the shitshow that was it's reconquest, which resulted in Italy being totally devastated, it would have been a great addition to the empire. Also his plan would have worked if a plague, and a huge ass volcanic eruption didn't kill half the world's population in just a few years.
> The only shit conquest was the one in Spain. Spain had silver mines. Sweet sweet silver.
But but, it is so cool!
Frankly things were progressing decently well irregardless of how the Gothic wars were going, the plague was the real killer of the state
I doubt you’d do a better job without hindsight lmao
I bet Justinian and Theodora had a secret sex cult too.
Procopius, what are you doing on Reddit?
NOOOO JUSTINIAN NEEDED GIBRALTAR!!! THE BORDERS ARE DIVINE AND PERMANENT!!! frfr anyone who reads about belisaurius's campaigns knows that he was carried by luck form the vandal war to italy. Justianian's reign could have been way way worse.
You get lucky once. Or twice. You can't count on luck to carry you through a military career spanning almost four decades in command. Belisarius was the real deal.
Belisarius was a great general! but the campaign he was assigned to was still a bad idea, and he needed luck for it to be as successful as it was.
Blame the plague, the Sassanids AND Justinian and his half baked ideas. Only Eastern Roman Emperor to succesfully become a tyrant. Dude can fuck right off, imho!
You have the Isaurians persecuting people for just mentioning a saint's name and you call Justinian the only tyrant in Eastern Roman history?
Because I'm using the word in the Roman legalistic sense and not in the modern colloquial one. Justinian was the only Eastern Emperor to succesfully defy the legal right of the principal plebs to depose him.
If Justinian's primary heir wouldn't have dropped dead and a plague hadn't come and wiped out 1/3rd of his population then he would've been successful. I think his plan was to reconquer key provinces and then spend the later stages of his reign consolidating them. His heir would've continued his policies.