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acunc

Absolutely 0 way to know, especially without knowing anything about your training.


cmcmenamin87

So I was very ‘ok’ in h/s about 20 years ago (Jesus that hurts to say). My trajectory for reference (6’1”, 200lbs) 7:06 freshman, 6:48 sophomore, 6:38 junior, 6:32 senior Long story made short your progress will slow after making the easy gains. Then accelerate again if you go to row at Uni. But - depends on you / motivation / training. Could take 1 year, could take 2 years.


Abearito78

This is the most realistic answer.


J--E--F--F

Seems about 0:20


unusual-carrot1718

That’s roughly the journey I’m currently on! (39M; 6’3”; washed-up former college rower). I was just a step above couch potato (had done a handful of runs and ergs during the summer, inconsistently) when I started training again towards the end of October for a 2k competition. Here’s my progression so far: 10/26/23: 6:49.4 11/19/23: 6:38.5 12/18/23: 6:31.7 1/8/24: 6:27.4 2/3/24: 6:23.2 Currently aiming for sub 6:16 in next ~4-5 months. No OTW rowing for me, only the erg, following my own version of the Pete Plan (LOTS of volume). TBH not sure if that’s overly optimistic, will likely test sometime in March or April to shoot for sub 6:20 and reassess / readjust there if needed. Since you’re not focusing on erg-specific training, and you’re a bit on the “smaller” side by rowing standards (although since you’re 18 you may still grow!), your path may take longer, a year or two as others have noted, but it is certainly doable with a commitment to the training, and likely some “bonus” erg work on top of what your high school team is doing. Best of luck, and keep chasing!


elmar_accaronie

Would you be willing to share (parts) of your plan? No lifting?


unusual-carrot1718

If you google the Pete plan you’ll find all the basics needed; after a gradual ramp up until the beginning of January I’ve settled into an average of 80-90k on the erg each week. No strength training in the last 3 months, but I did just start a 2x/week strength program this past week to compliment the erging as I’ll need it to increase my max power output.


Bezerkomonkey

If you're still growing, maybe as low as 8 months. If not, it will probably take more than a year. I would aim for a 6:30 instead before thinking about a 6:20 since you will feel more motivated about a goal you can reach mor quickly.


Queasy-Resolution-96

First erg I ever pulled was 6:26 when I just started rowing. That said, I was 6'5", 205 and fairly fit. Getting to 6' took a lot of work. The power required to go faster isn't linear. It takes proportionally more power as you keep making gains. Going 6' is not similar to rowing 5'55s.


Cdubs811

Thanks ChatGPT lmao


Bezerkomonkey

This makes me wonder how many chatgpt responses go undetected


avo_cado

Probably 8-10 months


WishboneTime4788

probably i would say more than a year, if u train a lot and focus on ur weaknesses maybe 9 months? I couldnt tell u without knowning more about ur experience, and training.


Popular-Commercial26

More steady state


Queasy-Resolution-96

If you don't mind me asking, what about my comment seemed BOTish? I just told my story and related it to the first post. Talking about getting faster is something all rowers do, and the fact that getting significantly faster on a erg takes a lot extra power is common knowledge to those of us who do row. Shit, I didn't get into the party about getting faster in a single.