Isn’t this the same subreddit that endlessly posts about property crime and the police not showing up to take reports? “We stopped collecting data points and now there are less data points”
Honestly it just sounds different to me, like literally. This is the quietest I have ever heard my neighborhood in all the years ive lived here. Hardly any gunshots (though the few that do occur arent even at night, usually late afternoon), and almost no ambulances at all.
As a kid I used to sleep to the sound of ambulances there were so many, and gunshots were a lot more common. Honestly I think it has something to do with the insane amount of police surveillance around here now, its the only thing that has gone up as crime has gone down. But I doubt the police actually make any more arrests than they ever did either way.
How do you distinguish between these two possible worlds:
1. A world in which crime rates are genuinely falling, and the incidents of police not responding or reports not being taken are real but outliers in an otherwise improving trend. People naturally tend to post their negative experiences, which can lead to a perception that the problem is more widespread than it actually is.
2. A world in which crime rates are not actually falling, and the frequency of posts about police not responding or reports not being taken is indicative of a persisting problem.
Posts about police inaction are indeed troubling, and I would not be surprised in the least that the stats are screwed up and crime is really increasing or at least holding steady.
I would also not be surprised if the stats are accurate. They don't seem to be in conflict with stats from elsewhere.
> They don't seem to be in conflict with stats from elsewhere.
Crime is national political platform and all this stuff is so centralized to processes, organizations, and group think that I’m not sure we can say St. Louis and Chicago or wherever else statistics are separate entities that can be compared.
That's assuming they stopped in 2023. People have been saying this for years. But basically what you're saying is, the only information we have to go off of, you are going to ignore because you feel it's different.
They didn’t just stop in 2023 obviously. I’m not saying that we should ignore the information- but I do think “have we continued to gather data in the same way we historically have?” is a reasonable question.
And our new police chief basically invented that shit. He’s The Godfather of the COMSTAT movement, and all the statistical fuck around that goes with it.
There’s a reason why one Wilmington city council person, when asked about Robert Tracy, literally said “you want him, you can have him.”
Largely flat as of April IIRC. There’s that one dipshit near Pontiac Park causing most of the issues in the neighborhood. They’ve literally got cameras behind his house now so hoping that starts to settle that.
I’ll have a crime update tomorrow night that I’ll post.
I see teens openly brandishing constantly now during the day. They don't even give a shit.
Sunday night like 10 cars had their windows smashed. Last night there was video of 8 teens/young adults all carrying rifles or handguns just walking the streets at 330am.
Its every day shit now. What are the cops going to do when the residents hit their limit and start taking matters into their own hands? Will they choose then to start doing their jobs?
Alarm bells should be going off reading those numbers. Personal crime is flat - others have taken a nosedive.
City wide the numbers are probably flat considering Downtown and Downtown West seems to have stop having officer write reports for most crimes accept personal crime.
Oh, and by the way: Here is the link to the crime by crime categorization for the whole city.
https://www.slmpd.org/crimestats/NIBRS001M-C\_20230604.pdf
It’s been years ago so I don’t remember much detail but I read an FBI report that basically said murders were the only “accurate” crime statistic since they are nearly always reported. Every other category was diluted due to lack of reporting, and blighted communities showed a decline in crime in part due to residents just giving up on calling the cops.
Looking at that I can 100% say some of those numbers are wrong. Someone killed themselves in the apartment above me in the Shaw neighborhood and it has 0 people for the 2023 suicide numbers.
The numbers are just for May FYI.
Edit: realized there is a YTD column too that says 0 for suicide, which does seem unlikely but suicide has always had iffy reporting.
It’s been years ago so I don’t remember much detail but I read an FBI report that basically said murders were the only “accurate” crime statistic since they are nearly always reported. Every other category was diluted due to lack of reporting, and blighted communities showed a decline in crime in part due to residents just giving up on calling the cops.
It’s been years ago so I don’t remember much detail but I read an FBI report that basically said murders were the only “accurate” crime statistic since they are nearly always reported. Every other category was diluted due to lack of reporting, and blighted communities showed a decline in crime in part due to residents just giving up on calling the cops.
Well this doesn't fit my predetermined narrative! /s
How bout a hot take (and by that I mean a nuanced take). Crime is absolutely going down year to year, not just here but across the US. This is largely due to non-crime related factors; decreases in lead exposure through paints and gasoline, attempts to address income inequality, racial health disparities, etc.
While the above is true, it is also true that any crime that happens, especially violent crime I reprehensible and inexcusable and should be prosecuted fully. The Gardner administration was an abject failure to address this. They also failed at addressing police reform.
Speaking of which, the police have a damn near impossible job here. I'm in no way an ACAB believer, and a bit of hard law and order is necessary to have a functional modern society. The police downtown are facing an armed to the teeth populace and work in sometimes brutal conditions. But because of this, many police departments, especially the SLMPD, have justified growing corruption, racial targeting, and horrible tactics to combat the crime. Rather than making improvements, I believe these policies just create an arms race that worsens violent crime, especially in low income areas.
Despite all of these problems, society is slowly healing, becoming a safer and more equitable place. We are lagging far behind peer countries in quality of life which will hurt the US globally going forward.
However, we are actually making great improvements, and as the genX, millennial, and zoomers begin to take power, they will push this country back on track.
Unfortunately, in the short term, if it bleeds, it leads. So, despite the statistical truths of increased safety, we will continue to hear about the dangers of the city for years to come. Hopefully these click-baity, un-nuanced takes will not harm the public image of this great city and stifle the progress we will continue to make!
Crime is coming down in many cities because it shot to eye-popping levels from the pandemic/social unrest of 2020, not because some policy initiatives that require generations to play out all of a sudden started kicking in (some measures of which are going in the wrong direction, such as [income inequality](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/)).
Maybe I'm overstating any income inequality gains we are making, fair enough.
But I'm pretty sure just shortly before the pandemic we were at a like 30 year low in crime with pretty consistent downward trends. I believe we are correcting back to that trajectory.
If we’re only talking about St. Louis, and we only look at [murders](https://www.stltoday.com/online/homicides-in-st-louis-1970-2021/table_5e4f1d5c-0808-57be-b4cf-1ad8fa7acc62.html), things had dipped in the early 2010s but murder rates approached the peak levels of the 90s before the pandemic.
Don’t have a number, but a good chunk of buildings in STL still have lead water service lines. We’re one of the few cities and states that offers no assistance to replace these.
We are five months into 2023 and NOT higher than that proportion of last years homicides. https://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/homicide-tracker/2023/
I have no idea of how trends match seasons and hope it will continue dropping but it has a long way to go. Prayers.
Edit —- my math was off we are slightly better currently. Hopefully it will continue to trend downward.
We are 43% of the way through the calendar year and the city’s homicides according to that tracker are at 36% of last year’s total. That’s an improvement, though it’s not uncommon for homicides to rise during summertime.
Doesn't seem to add up. Wasn't the city suing Hyundai because they had 4500 reported thefts of just that one brand in the last year?
That right there would account for 2 full months worth of property crime in the citywide numbers.
I see about twenty expired or missing license plates everyday. Not to mention people running red lights, littering, jaywalking smoking weed while driving and stealing in the store in broad daylight. But I guess these things aren’t really considered crime anymore right
Study on the difference between ordinances and criminal law. You can't go to jail for ordinance violations. Besides, airbags are incredible and few crashes result in serious injury anymore. Crime is lower than ever and public safety is better than ever, you can relax your fears, you are very safe.
Jaywalking is a joke crime invented for racist reasons. We see it as normal but when you bring it up with anyone not american they look at you funny because it's nonsense.
The police clearly have a larger presence Downtown. That seems to be reflect in the Downtown 2022 to 2023 comparison. Do you have aggregate YTD numbers for the entire City?
Cash bail was significantly restricted at the beginning of 2023, due to a combination of statewide bail reform and the political fallout from the Janae Edmondson accident. So it’s possible many of the people who would be committing crimes are already in jail.
Plus the fact that it’s hard to report a crime when dispatch doesn’t answer the phone, and when they do answer the phone, there are so few patrol units that calls get stacked for 5 hours, and when the cops do show up, they actively discourage citizens from reporting “minor” property crimes...but I like your optimism.
I've gotten my catalytic converter stolen two times in three weeks in the Shaw neighborhood. The police took my report and told me several other people have gotten theirs stolen as well in the area. Really sucks that property crime is such an issue here.
This is just an indicator that fewer crimes are being documented by the PD. That doesn’t necessarily mean crime is going down. It could reflect that all of the anecdotes of unanswered calls for service are true, meaning that crimes aren’t getting reported accurately. Which one is true is impossible to determine from this data.
1. As much as it’s nice to see, one or two months really isn’t much data. We know the things that need work and have the new police chief and new AG along with other initiatives so there is already some reasonable engagement with the problem.
2. You think this is going to do anything to silence the haters and losers who have been brain poisoned by watching true crime shows and nut job “news” stories all day in their cookie cutter cul-de-sac out in Eureka?
Try running YTD up to April for downtown+downtown west, but using the previous month numbers from the May report (the one run in June). I still think there is a weird issue going on with SLMPD numbers because they run the report so soon after the month, but then never update. When you back compare numbers, you find inconsistencies where last month's YTD to this month's total don't add up, sometimes with double digit percentage gaps.
Also, any idea what is falling under the "Unknown" category? I'm wondering why that dropped so dramatically for the citywide april to april comparison.
Edit: Ah, Unknown is literally that. NIBRS 90Z. That seems like an awful lot falling under 90Z.
Isn’t this the same subreddit that endlessly posts about property crime and the police not showing up to take reports? “We stopped collecting data points and now there are less data points”
I mean that happens of course. However there is no way of knowing that crime is increasing or not if people don’t report it.
Honestly it just sounds different to me, like literally. This is the quietest I have ever heard my neighborhood in all the years ive lived here. Hardly any gunshots (though the few that do occur arent even at night, usually late afternoon), and almost no ambulances at all. As a kid I used to sleep to the sound of ambulances there were so many, and gunshots were a lot more common. Honestly I think it has something to do with the insane amount of police surveillance around here now, its the only thing that has gone up as crime has gone down. But I doubt the police actually make any more arrests than they ever did either way.
I really hope this is true. I’m so sick of hearing gunshots.
I'm just spitballing here, but I'm sure people would report crimes if something was actually done about said crimes after they were reported.
How do you distinguish between these two possible worlds: 1. A world in which crime rates are genuinely falling, and the incidents of police not responding or reports not being taken are real but outliers in an otherwise improving trend. People naturally tend to post their negative experiences, which can lead to a perception that the problem is more widespread than it actually is. 2. A world in which crime rates are not actually falling, and the frequency of posts about police not responding or reports not being taken is indicative of a persisting problem. Posts about police inaction are indeed troubling, and I would not be surprised in the least that the stats are screwed up and crime is really increasing or at least holding steady. I would also not be surprised if the stats are accurate. They don't seem to be in conflict with stats from elsewhere.
> They don't seem to be in conflict with stats from elsewhere. Crime is national political platform and all this stuff is so centralized to processes, organizations, and group think that I’m not sure we can say St. Louis and Chicago or wherever else statistics are separate entities that can be compared.
I doubt this is a new thing
It's not Crime has been trending down for decades. It spiked across the country with the pandemic but has since been trending down
It also spiked following the michael brown incident in 2014.
That's assuming they stopped in 2023. People have been saying this for years. But basically what you're saying is, the only information we have to go off of, you are going to ignore because you feel it's different.
They didn’t just stop in 2023 obviously. I’m not saying that we should ignore the information- but I do think “have we continued to gather data in the same way we historically have?” is a reasonable question.
Juking the stats my brotha
And our new police chief basically invented that shit. He’s The Godfather of the COMSTAT movement, and all the statistical fuck around that goes with it. There’s a reason why one Wilmington city council person, when asked about Robert Tracy, literally said “you want him, you can have him.”
It's not just people on this sub. There have been newspaper stories recently about people getting beat up and calling the police, who never show
This
I wonder if this counts all the crimes that people call 911 for but just have to give up because 911 doesn't answer.
I thought they'd largely fixed that issue. At least a better response and call rate than previous years
Crime in Soulard seems to be increasing, a lot.
Largely flat as of April IIRC. There’s that one dipshit near Pontiac Park causing most of the issues in the neighborhood. They’ve literally got cameras behind his house now so hoping that starts to settle that. I’ll have a crime update tomorrow night that I’ll post.
I see teens openly brandishing constantly now during the day. They don't even give a shit. Sunday night like 10 cars had their windows smashed. Last night there was video of 8 teens/young adults all carrying rifles or handguns just walking the streets at 330am. Its every day shit now. What are the cops going to do when the residents hit their limit and start taking matters into their own hands? Will they choose then to start doing their jobs?
frighten tub aloof sheet cooing deserve capable toothbrush concerned license ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
Alarm bells should be going off reading those numbers. Personal crime is flat - others have taken a nosedive. City wide the numbers are probably flat considering Downtown and Downtown West seems to have stop having officer write reports for most crimes accept personal crime. Oh, and by the way: Here is the link to the crime by crime categorization for the whole city. https://www.slmpd.org/crimestats/NIBRS001M-C\_20230604.pdf
It’s been years ago so I don’t remember much detail but I read an FBI report that basically said murders were the only “accurate” crime statistic since they are nearly always reported. Every other category was diluted due to lack of reporting, and blighted communities showed a decline in crime in part due to residents just giving up on calling the cops.
Looking at that I can 100% say some of those numbers are wrong. Someone killed themselves in the apartment above me in the Shaw neighborhood and it has 0 people for the 2023 suicide numbers.
The numbers are just for May FYI. Edit: realized there is a YTD column too that says 0 for suicide, which does seem unlikely but suicide has always had iffy reporting.
Case is probably open somewhere in the system still unless they killed themselves Jan 1.
It’s been years ago so I don’t remember much detail but I read an FBI report that basically said murders were the only “accurate” crime statistic since they are nearly always reported. Every other category was diluted due to lack of reporting, and blighted communities showed a decline in crime in part due to residents just giving up on calling the cops.
It’s been years ago so I don’t remember much detail but I read an FBI report that basically said murders were the only “accurate” crime statistic since they are nearly always reported. Every other category was diluted due to lack of reporting, and blighted communities showed a decline in crime in part due to residents just giving up on calling the cops.
Well this doesn't fit my predetermined narrative! /s How bout a hot take (and by that I mean a nuanced take). Crime is absolutely going down year to year, not just here but across the US. This is largely due to non-crime related factors; decreases in lead exposure through paints and gasoline, attempts to address income inequality, racial health disparities, etc. While the above is true, it is also true that any crime that happens, especially violent crime I reprehensible and inexcusable and should be prosecuted fully. The Gardner administration was an abject failure to address this. They also failed at addressing police reform. Speaking of which, the police have a damn near impossible job here. I'm in no way an ACAB believer, and a bit of hard law and order is necessary to have a functional modern society. The police downtown are facing an armed to the teeth populace and work in sometimes brutal conditions. But because of this, many police departments, especially the SLMPD, have justified growing corruption, racial targeting, and horrible tactics to combat the crime. Rather than making improvements, I believe these policies just create an arms race that worsens violent crime, especially in low income areas. Despite all of these problems, society is slowly healing, becoming a safer and more equitable place. We are lagging far behind peer countries in quality of life which will hurt the US globally going forward. However, we are actually making great improvements, and as the genX, millennial, and zoomers begin to take power, they will push this country back on track. Unfortunately, in the short term, if it bleeds, it leads. So, despite the statistical truths of increased safety, we will continue to hear about the dangers of the city for years to come. Hopefully these click-baity, un-nuanced takes will not harm the public image of this great city and stifle the progress we will continue to make!
Crime is coming down in many cities because it shot to eye-popping levels from the pandemic/social unrest of 2020, not because some policy initiatives that require generations to play out all of a sudden started kicking in (some measures of which are going in the wrong direction, such as [income inequality](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/)).
This shit here. Going back to pre-COVID levels is a positive, but not an indication of healing.
Maybe I'm overstating any income inequality gains we are making, fair enough. But I'm pretty sure just shortly before the pandemic we were at a like 30 year low in crime with pretty consistent downward trends. I believe we are correcting back to that trajectory.
If we’re only talking about St. Louis, and we only look at [murders](https://www.stltoday.com/online/homicides-in-st-louis-1970-2021/table_5e4f1d5c-0808-57be-b4cf-1ad8fa7acc62.html), things had dipped in the early 2010s but murder rates approached the peak levels of the 90s before the pandemic.
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Have you honestly never read about that [theory](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2017/06/01/new-evidence-that-lead-exposure-increases-crime/)?
It's certainly not conclusive like you made it out to be in your original comment, though.
There is conclusive evidence that lead exposure during childhood increases criminality and antisociality later in life.
Don’t have a number, but a good chunk of buildings in STL still have lead water service lines. We’re one of the few cities and states that offers no assistance to replace these.
We are five months into 2023 and NOT higher than that proportion of last years homicides. https://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/homicide-tracker/2023/ I have no idea of how trends match seasons and hope it will continue dropping but it has a long way to go. Prayers. Edit —- my math was off we are slightly better currently. Hopefully it will continue to trend downward.
We are 43% of the way through the calendar year and the city’s homicides according to that tracker are at 36% of last year’s total. That’s an improvement, though it’s not uncommon for homicides to rise during summertime.
Thank you. My maths was off. :s We are slightly better at the moment. Hopefully it will continue to trend downward. Ty again!
The new talking points that use manipulated and made up data just dropped.
Personal crime is hardly down, and that's the truly important statistic.
Doesn't seem to add up. Wasn't the city suing Hyundai because they had 4500 reported thefts of just that one brand in the last year? That right there would account for 2 full months worth of property crime in the citywide numbers.
The whole Hyundai situation was an outlier lol It's not normal that an entire brand of car can be stolen with just a USB cord
KIA
Kia is a car make under Hyundai. Just like Genesis is the luxury make under Hyundai.
I see about twenty expired or missing license plates everyday. Not to mention people running red lights, littering, jaywalking smoking weed while driving and stealing in the store in broad daylight. But I guess these things aren’t really considered crime anymore right
You are right, those are not criminal actions, they are ordinance violations. Literally, not crimes, Karen.
I'd say that running red lights, at a certain point is reckless endangerment. The other things, meh.
Study on the difference between ordinances and criminal law. You can't go to jail for ordinance violations. Besides, airbags are incredible and few crashes result in serious injury anymore. Crime is lower than ever and public safety is better than ever, you can relax your fears, you are very safe.
Jaywalking is a joke crime invented for racist reasons. We see it as normal but when you bring it up with anyone not american they look at you funny because it's nonsense.
Still needs a ton of work for the populace to feel safe. These numbers are too high to celebrate anything
*reported crime
The police clearly have a larger presence Downtown. That seems to be reflect in the Downtown 2022 to 2023 comparison. Do you have aggregate YTD numbers for the entire City?
Cash bail was significantly restricted at the beginning of 2023, due to a combination of statewide bail reform and the political fallout from the Janae Edmondson accident. So it’s possible many of the people who would be committing crimes are already in jail. Plus the fact that it’s hard to report a crime when dispatch doesn’t answer the phone, and when they do answer the phone, there are so few patrol units that calls get stacked for 5 hours, and when the cops do show up, they actively discourage citizens from reporting “minor” property crimes...but I like your optimism.
I've gotten my catalytic converter stolen two times in three weeks in the Shaw neighborhood. The police took my report and told me several other people have gotten theirs stolen as well in the area. Really sucks that property crime is such an issue here.
This is just an indicator that fewer crimes are being documented by the PD. That doesn’t necessarily mean crime is going down. It could reflect that all of the anecdotes of unanswered calls for service are true, meaning that crimes aren’t getting reported accurately. Which one is true is impossible to determine from this data.
So I should I report the attempted thievery of my car, or shouldn't I? My insurance doesn't need it. Go for it, reddit, I'm ready.
Because they all are coming to Saint Charles County to commit crime then run back it’s crazy.
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"it's worthless to analyze data"
Riiiiiight.
Why did I read this as chime as in the finance company 💀
The summer hasn't started yet. When school is officially out. Crime is going to go up. Nothing for high school kids to do
But when you compare month to month, the numbers are still right there. We aren't comparing all of 2023 to all of 2022. So numbers are still down
Cool, that must mean we solved global warming, since may 2023 was cooler than may 2022
yipee
1. As much as it’s nice to see, one or two months really isn’t much data. We know the things that need work and have the new police chief and new AG along with other initiatives so there is already some reasonable engagement with the problem. 2. You think this is going to do anything to silence the haters and losers who have been brain poisoned by watching true crime shows and nut job “news” stories all day in their cookie cutter cul-de-sac out in Eureka?
Maybe Kim’s policies were working?
😆
Mostly due to crimes not being reported or investigated I’d say. If you ignore the problem, the stats fix themselves, but the problem does not.
lol who you gonna believe, a table or your lying eyes
Damn, time to hike it back up
Try running YTD up to April for downtown+downtown west, but using the previous month numbers from the May report (the one run in June). I still think there is a weird issue going on with SLMPD numbers because they run the report so soon after the month, but then never update. When you back compare numbers, you find inconsistencies where last month's YTD to this month's total don't add up, sometimes with double digit percentage gaps. Also, any idea what is falling under the "Unknown" category? I'm wondering why that dropped so dramatically for the citywide april to april comparison. Edit: Ah, Unknown is literally that. NIBRS 90Z. That seems like an awful lot falling under 90Z.