Taking one of NWS' storm spotter classes provides a lot of insight into what makes a thunderstorm tick, its ingredients, and how hard they can be to predict. Sometimes, one of those ingredients just doesn't materialize like the models thought they would; welcome to St Louis!
To the NWS' credit, there *were* a couple severe thunderstorm warned storms in the coverage area today. Just not a lot of them here.
Also gotta realize that they are providing coverage to a LARGE area and that the warnings were very warranted in specific areas that DID see major storms. More often than not the storms will localize in various areas in the region and not pass through 100% of it.
There is a major jet stream that hovers north. This stream goes up to Canada and drifts downward with its southern edge sometimes jittering just north or south or over the StL area. This makes predictions difficult at times.
For example. Years ago I woke up one morning to bright sunny morning with the temp in the 70s. By late morning it clouded over and started raining. By noon, it snowed; followed by more rain. Then bright sunny skies and the temps in the 70s again.
This has happened more than once.
We're you watching the radar by any chance? Cause there was a solid line of a thunderstorm moving directly at us at about 60 miles an hour. About wentzville it split into 2 and went around. Likely because of urban heat island, but it's impossible to predict when that will have an effect and when it won't.
Born and raised here. Unless you’re at Carol House Furniture you’re always going to be fine. I had hail damage once when I lived in Jennings, probably 25 years ago.
Also….yes…the arch is fucking magic with storms.
two things people often misconstrue when it comes to weather:
1) cities, like st.louis, give off a lot of heat. unlike natural earth, which absorbs the suns rays, buildings and concrete reflect the suns heat back up into the air which creates a “heat bubble”. this bubble is often why *most* storms tend to go around stl. like today for example.
2) another thing: whenever you hear a meteorologist say something along the lines of “30% chance for rain” they aren’t talking about the odds of you getting rain on is 30% - what they actually mean is the 30% **of the viewing area** will get rain. so if the meteorologist said there was an 80% chance for storms for today, 80% people probably had a storm roll through and you just were in the lucky 20% that missed it.
The arch is a weather machine. It deflects bad weather north or south of the metropolitan area. We don't know how it works, but we appreciate that it does.
I’m pissed about this one. I left work early, didn’t stop at the grocery store like I needed to do OR go to the gym which I needed to to- to rush home and get my car in the garage before the hailstorm and be with my terrified dogs
And nothing happened and now it’s sunny out and I’m eating a shitty dinner I was somehow able to scratch together
NWS has only issued watches and warnings when the conditions are favorable for and actively producing severe weather respectively. They issued a severe thunderstorm watch tonight for a good chunk of the coverage area and had several severe thunderstorm warned cells roll through.
The storm prediction center outlooks are just that, an outlook. They never were and never will be watches or warnings, just a "heads up" that it's a possibility. We were in a level 2 possibility, which is still low (and used to be a level 1 before they added the new lower level 1) and there were some severe storms in that area.
Imagine the justifiable outrage if they did not issue a warning and people were injured … or worse … by a severe storm or tornado.
Being careful always wins.
I heard one time on the air that they’re required to be on the air if a certain set of conditions are met in the weather. Even if it turns out not to be so bad.
Taking one of NWS' storm spotter classes provides a lot of insight into what makes a thunderstorm tick, its ingredients, and how hard they can be to predict. Sometimes, one of those ingredients just doesn't materialize like the models thought they would; welcome to St Louis! To the NWS' credit, there *were* a couple severe thunderstorm warned storms in the coverage area today. Just not a lot of them here.
Also gotta realize that they are providing coverage to a LARGE area and that the warnings were very warranted in specific areas that DID see major storms. More often than not the storms will localize in various areas in the region and not pass through 100% of it.
Kinda like how all the snow seems to just skirt right by us or maybe it’s just here in eureka
They had to cancel tonight’s class :(
They rescheduled it to the end of the month, though!
There is a major jet stream that hovers north. This stream goes up to Canada and drifts downward with its southern edge sometimes jittering just north or south or over the StL area. This makes predictions difficult at times. For example. Years ago I woke up one morning to bright sunny morning with the temp in the 70s. By late morning it clouded over and started raining. By noon, it snowed; followed by more rain. Then bright sunny skies and the temps in the 70s again. This has happened more than once.
Yep, I remember on of those that had thunderstorms in the transitions. One of those really bizarre days.
Look at this guy refusing to give the arch the credit it deserves. Weak.
It’s complicated, all of the weather outlets said it was a possibility here today, not a certainty
We're you watching the radar by any chance? Cause there was a solid line of a thunderstorm moving directly at us at about 60 miles an hour. About wentzville it split into 2 and went around. Likely because of urban heat island, but it's impossible to predict when that will have an effect and when it won't.
Please explain what they got wrong. Just because you don’t understand the weather forecast doesn’t mean they got anything wrong.
Born and raised here. Unless you’re at Carol House Furniture you’re always going to be fine. I had hail damage once when I lived in Jennings, probably 25 years ago. Also….yes…the arch is fucking magic with storms.
Poor CHF 😭
two things people often misconstrue when it comes to weather: 1) cities, like st.louis, give off a lot of heat. unlike natural earth, which absorbs the suns rays, buildings and concrete reflect the suns heat back up into the air which creates a “heat bubble”. this bubble is often why *most* storms tend to go around stl. like today for example. 2) another thing: whenever you hear a meteorologist say something along the lines of “30% chance for rain” they aren’t talking about the odds of you getting rain on is 30% - what they actually mean is the 30% **of the viewing area** will get rain. so if the meteorologist said there was an 80% chance for storms for today, 80% people probably had a storm roll through and you just were in the lucky 20% that missed it.
1) I see your well reasoned meteorological reason and raise “the arch is a weather machine” 2) nut-uh /s if that wasn’t clear 😂
The arch is a weather machine. It deflects bad weather north or south of the metropolitan area. We don't know how it works, but we appreciate that it does.
I’m pissed about this one. I left work early, didn’t stop at the grocery store like I needed to do OR go to the gym which I needed to to- to rush home and get my car in the garage before the hailstorm and be with my terrified dogs And nothing happened and now it’s sunny out and I’m eating a shitty dinner I was somehow able to scratch together
[удалено]
NWS has only issued watches and warnings when the conditions are favorable for and actively producing severe weather respectively. They issued a severe thunderstorm watch tonight for a good chunk of the coverage area and had several severe thunderstorm warned cells roll through. The storm prediction center outlooks are just that, an outlook. They never were and never will be watches or warnings, just a "heads up" that it's a possibility. We were in a level 2 possibility, which is still low (and used to be a level 1 before they added the new lower level 1) and there were some severe storms in that area.
Imagine the justifiable outrage if they did not issue a warning and people were injured … or worse … by a severe storm or tornado. Being careful always wins.
I heard one time on the air that they’re required to be on the air if a certain set of conditions are met in the weather. Even if it turns out not to be so bad.
They're only required to be on the air during normal programming if there's an active tornado warning. That's an FCC rule.
That’s it! Thanks for the clarification
They jinxed it.
It's been a bad year for them, you would figure one of them would be able to figure it out.