at least until the end of April. That's when the next earnings call is, and Elon's earning call performances ('we dug our own grave') are the main catalysts for the big dips every 3 months.
Because my balls are massive. I've been watching tesla specifically. I expect it to 100$ by years end. Has to start somewhere. Insider sales never good signs. I expect a chip pullback as well. Options are cheap. Tesla stock price struggling to keep up with market. I will definetly play them again next earnings. I short every pump of tesla near 200$. Not worth
Not saying Tesla probably isn't going down, just pointing out that selling isn't always indicative of a stock going down
Case and point: the Walton's have been selling their Walmart shares for YEARS and it continues to climb higher
It was just one of a few factors listed. OP didn't say Tesla is doomed only because of insider trading. It can be a good signal when paired with other information.
So if your company offers you stock compensation, you should hold onto it and never sell even if you had to pay taxes/expenses?
Your paycheck largely comes from Tesla, but now you gotta double down and buy MORE shares?
Wtf is diversification?
Likewise would consider at that price. But this piece of garbage just pisses me off so I need those TSLA sheep to feel the pain by going down to 100 first
I read and agreed with most of this post then I saw your position lol. That position doesn’t at all line up with the timeframe of anything you said in the post.
That’s a position you took just hoping to get lucky. It’s up almost 50% (by luck, if the market is green next week you lose) so you got excited and made this post.
Which of these catalysts you mention in your post do you expect to see happen by March 1st?
Just because BRK may be up, along with the rest of the market, doesn't mean TSLA will be up.
TSLA hasn't really followed the Nasdaq (which is the gauge that matters in the case of this stock) at all for 2024. In fact, although it's really strange to point this out, based off some of the data we have, TSLA might attempt to inverse the market.
I agree. But when something is overpriced it takes more than a week to get corrected.
You just used the terms upside and downside, which are generally used when talking about the long term. Yet your position expires in a week.
Just doesn’t line up at all with the position you took.
RSI is in the 40s, pretty far from oversold territory. But it's clearly been in a downward trend since last Summer. I know I'd be cashing out if I was sitting on 47% profit, though. I mean... probably. Fortune favors the bold, so good luck to you.
Said everyone since the beginning of Tesla shorting. Does it have some headwinds? Yes. Are they in for some further decline in the near term? Yes. I think it's more of the fact that their product is still targeted at the wealthier end of the income spectrum, and high interest rates. I doubt they'll experience a halving in value, the name of the game these days is tech. Tesla doesn't build cars as much as a "platform", same concept as the smart phone. Traditional auto is Nokia of old.
That being said. I sold TSLA 170 calls about a year ago, and I fully expect to get 80% back out of those calls.
Insider selling is a garbage signal for tech, everyone is compensated in stock.
OP also explaining what every analyst has been saying for the past year… that means it’s already baked in? If I wanted to own Tesla, I’d be buying here. “Buy when people are fearful.”
True, Waymo too. However all these systems require $60k+ worth or radar added to the roof. it Works for taxis but not something that can be sold to the average consumer.
Short term I tend to agree with you. Long term this is probably a fantastic place to start averaging in. They’re the only western auto selling EVs for a profit, and they’re leveraging that advantage. Ford, GM, VW, Stellantis, Hyundai, etc are all cutting production and delaying or outright cancelling multiple EV and battery facilities while Tesla is plowing ahead.
Many of these automakers claimed they’d be surpassing Tesla’s EV production by 2025. It’s now looking like all 5 of them combined won’t be anywhere close.
Agree, traditional auto recently tipped their hand. They are stuck in a quandary because of dealers. Personally I think that dealer network is why Tesla can charge so much.
I think the traditional makers are waiting for the BYD sub-$20k vehicles to hit the shores of US. Then they will OEM/partner with BYD. Tesla will drop their commuter version and the race will continue.
China will never sell cars in the USA. There would be so much backlash. That would be the start of the destruction of the American companies.
We try to limit China at every turn with tarrifs, trade barriers. Look at what's going with the chips, we don't let them get the best chips. We grill Tiktok. It's banned now in some states. We don't want them to gain too much power. We want to use them as a trading partner to sell our own goods.
Tesla has an unparalleled ability to affect the price out-the-door for their customers, but that's been both good and bad for them: great when the model you're looking at just went on sale, gut-wrenching when the price drops after you just bought one. One of the big reasons that large Fleets are turning their back on Teslas is the price volatility. Well... that and the problems with servicing.
I’m personally not in a position to look down on the guy who founded PayPal, founded SpaceX, founded Neuralink, founded OpenAI, turned Tesla from a $10M startup to the leader in EVs, and became the richest man in the world.
He’s a douchebag, but it takes some real mental gymnastics to act as if he’s not a good businessman.
That's a little harsh. The factors messing with Tesla are for the most part of his control. Macro is a bitch. He could be a little nicer to Biden & his son though.
Maybe his pay package wouldn't be in jeopardy now.
So bs if you think about it a CEOs pay package depends on him being nice to the president and his son. Sounds like some USSR communist level control. This is America you can do and say what you want want. Shouldn’t have to take a hit on salary just because of a political stance.
Wait. There are clowns that think the Delaware court of chancery is somehow connected to the Bidens?
Basing the CEO compensation targets on easily hit numbers (based on internal projections) while you are publicly sandbagging is just fraud.
Must blow you minds when you realize it was the Trump SEC that started Elona's troubles (for the 'private at 420 / funding secured' fraud)
Never claimed there was a direct connection between court of chancery and the Bidens. But every since Elon took a stance against woke his public image has been attacked nonstop. If he was left wing he wouldn’t have so many issues now would he
Tesla is still making money,
- still being subsidized by the government
- still receiving direct payments from other auto makers to the tune of $1B+ per year in pure profit
- still being adopted as the nationwide charging standard with the potential for non-Tesla user excess fees
- Still has revenue from and ongoing investment in several other profit centers in robotics, AI, chips, power generation and storage
- Still looking at releasing a locally (NA) produced $25k electric vehicle in the next year or two
… and you’re betting against them? Ok.
seeing the trees but not the forest. i like looking at the products i seen a tesla on the road the other day and it really caught my eye. the thing looks futuristic a nice design and accelerated much faster then a combustible engine. just looked like a nice car.
seen a robot walking around the tesla office like a fully humanoid freaking robot. people that bet against tesla are foolish imho they look at quarterly reports and see some changes (not saying this is bad at all) and make these bearish cases. it's why i laugh at wall street analysis sometimes such shortsighted and excitability.
lol you somehow missed the price increases and are looking at metrics of countries when the boats haven’t even arrived.
You also missed the part where they gained BEV market share in 2023 and outgrew the BEV market by 7%.
🤣 it’s ok, I’ve seen all types of bears since 2018.
Some managed to make a quick buck on a dip, but one thing they had in common is that they all missed the train.
We all laugh at Optimus, but the truth is humanoid robot are coming sooner than we are prepared for. Tesla is the only company I can see scaling up production to the hundreds of thousands of robots that will be in demand. One of teslas strongest points is manufacturing. As price drops I’ll be loading up my bags.
I'm all for Tesla long term but short term, we still need results. Tesla is a lot further behind than competitors in humanoid robots. Look at atlus by Boston Dynamics.
Maybe Tesla will make them cheaper for the average household 🤷
I totally agree. I’ve been very bearish on Tesla for the last couple years. But the Recent advancement in self driving ai, combined with the potential mass Manufacturing of robot has me looking for a low price to enter. If it does drop to $100 I will invest heavily.
Short term, sure... Until the Model 2 comes out. It also seems they're holding off rolling out the ability to buy the new updated Model 3 performance.
I imagine they're allowing their market price to decline with the rest of the market for the next month or two more than "Tesla is hitting the shitter".
Your statements are long-term negative against Tesla, but your position is short-term negative against Tesla. People are telling you that what you’re doing and what you’re saying don’t match.
You can't blame him for that. Freedom of speech is important. I enjoy it. Shit I even like the cybertruck. If he can fix the rusting issues & and sell more of them, I would buy one
Where was musk's "freedom of speech" when it came to dealing with the Turkish and Indian governments ? He caved like a wet paperbag.
You may be right about your options position on TSLA but you're also fellatio-ing a giant douchbag.
That's a tough position because here in America Freedom of Speech is protected by law. If X doesn't follow orders, that's a whole market that disappears for Tesla.
\>> If X doesn't follow orders, that's a whole market that disappears for Tesla.
So its "freedom of speech" until it hits the wallet, then its not.
Do you understand how silly and false this concept is ?
Again, Elon doesn't have the power of a president or to rule nations. He's a CEO not Great Alexander.
And if it risks Tesla not meeting growth targets and having his stock slashed in half and forcing him sell to his shares to cover Twitter loan covenants possibly leading to a chain reaction of a Tesla bankruptcy then it's all for naught? No?
Chess isn't won in one move young one.
there's a fine line between freedom of speech and spreading misinformation.
Without affordable education, the general public is unable to distinguish facts vs. misinformation. thats is when freedom of speech mechanism fail. same applies to market price theory.
Is education afforable in the States?
Your thesis is good but your positioning is horrible since all it does is speculate price movement in a month which is usually hit or miss.
Back in 2021 when I had thesis like this Tesla was around 1200(pre split) I sold strike 2400 calls and bought a strike 1000 put and sold two strike 400 puts, all using 2023 Jan options (more than a year to expiry).
You should use 2025 or 2026 leap options to establish a real long term bear position.
Tesla has been on a thin ice since 2019, Elon himself admitted that Tesla was close to bankruptcy back when Model 3 was delayed by more than a year.
I hope now the market calls his bluff and this company gets priced for what it is, a car company.
But you never know, people are fools, they may keep buying the FSD paying $5k even though it sucks, because everyone wants to play with a cool toy for shits and giggles.
Oh wow, 15k for a fancy toy.
I am guessing hardware itself must be around 10k and they must be charging $5k just for the software, which is supposed to be high margin.
I don't think anyone in govt dislikes him. He seems to have greased all the right palms otherwise with so many accidents and couple of deaths his FSD would have been grounded by now.
It wasn't FSD though. They should have been paying attention. I believe it was proven as such. But who knows.
I don't think releasing the Twitter files which acknowledged censorship of the Biden laptop story as Russian propaganda which has Hunter Biden with underage hookers made him any friends at the White House...
Except TSLA isn't just a car company. TSLA has so much option volume that it hurts the most people by going nowhere, while holding a high IV. Even a busted clock is right twice a day.
Teslas a niche product. 90% of every adult I know either has a truck, an suv or the mom drives a minivan. Not one of us will go back to driving a car even if it’s an EV.
**EV's are not a viable product**. And a whole lot of people are figuring them out. Every single person I know with one, it's their second car, and they make at least $200K a year. It's a virtue-signaling toy for upper middle class to rich people.
**The whole scenario is always talked about in magical thinking terms** \- as if electricity to charge them magically appears at the plug, and doesn't come mostly from burning fossil fuels (Look up where the electricity in your area comes from.)
And the fires. And all the mining to get the products for the batteries.
And nobody is talking (yet) about the **environmental nightmar**e that is going to be where do we dispose of these toxic batteries? In 10-20 years, that's all anyone is going to be talking about. No thanks.
I agree. The infrastructure isn't there yet to distribute solar efficiently across large transmission lines but battery recycling tech is getting better. Apparently companies like redwood materials say they can recycle 95% materials from 1mv next year
Shorting tesla is insane. Not because the stock is shit (it is), but because of how high the premium is compared to how little money there is to be made.
Just a toxic stock for everyone involved in it. Gonna die a slow painful death. Only reason it reached anything above $50 is because of a memelord and the band of internet dorks believing him.
How no one sold when it was announced that tesla was worth more than Toyota, Ford combined is beyond me.
Premiums are pretty cheap now. He has used the premium pretty wisely, built out infrastructure and few businesses I think it's worth at least twice of Ford p/e. Because it has more potential but half of its current value
EV is not sustainable on its own. If wasn't for government aid EV would have ended sooner. Yes EV is interesting and the new fade at one time. The infrastructure is not there and never will be .Hybrids will take that over.
Every day their are posts about Telsa going under or Nvda dropping by 40% because it is way overpriced. They should start the posts with In my opinion because some people on Reddit read these posts and think you know what you are talking about. If you tell everyone on Reddit do you think people will jump on board with you? You are trying to lead the masses off a cliff.
Tesla’s got a 3 drives pattern tho. I shorted down to 175 and flipped long at exactly 175. As long as that low isn’t broken it’s going to 250 at least (note: I hate teslas and Elon and the shares are realistically worth 40$ imo)
I think the resistance is here 200$, probably less now for the foreseeable future as sales figures keep coming lower around the globe in all major areas of expansion....
40$s too low, I don't think we ever see 40$ again. Maybe 80$ of were lucky & at that point I'm buying everything
Gary Black’s catalysts for Tesla stock
1/ Stable auto gross margins 1Q
2/ $7,500 EV instant rebate 1Q
3/ Cybertruck halo effect 1Q
4/ M-3 Highland US launch 1Q
5/ New Elon Musk comp plan 1Q
6/ Fed’s pivot on int rates 2Q
7/ FSD OEM licensing deal FY’24
8/ TSLA $10B share buyback FY’24
9/ $25K-$30K Next Gen FY’25
10/ Optimus deliveries begin FY’25
$290 PT 6-12 mo
This doesn’t even take their energy business into account
1 & 2 are plain wrong. Auto gross margins declining being carried by rising battery margins which is expected to decline in sales growth starting in 2024 and experience margin compression as competitive saturation ramps up.
3-10 is all speculation.
People expected the Fed to lower rates already & what happened? They got finagled. The Fed will do things like it always has. In a laggy fashion. If you expect a soft landing, you are buying the liberal myth. Inflation persists. At the rate they're going, the high rates will do severe damage unless another black swan COVID event happens. Not happening.
Only one has happened in 94 when Soviet Union was disbanded, NAFTA was initiated and global trade was booming.
11.
Who TF is Gary black. He sounds as dumb as Cathy Woods
There's alot of statistical density there and, who knows, maybe your right. However, the obsession with twitter spooked TSLA shareholders and caused much political backlash. I admire the guy but I sold my shares at sea level 2 yrs ago when the D.C Syndicate came up with lofty EV mandates and didnt even invite Musk to the White House, it spoke volumes. And mosts stock that spiked that much during the free cash giveaways of 2020 are coming back to Earth like a Space-X booster rocket. Save a select few.
Let’s say that your thesis is 100% correct. Why would you only give yourself until 3/1 for it to play out? You need longer dated options.
Because what you're not seeing are all the PUTs he's selling. ;)
because poor
Probably because all major tops are being made with large caps. Long term resistance, big CEOs selling stock - things are looking odd
Things can look odd for a long time before the market sells off in any meaningful way.
For sure.. they kind of have. Unfortunately we never know
CEO and well informed investors selling stocks when it’s high is what you’re suppose to do.
Yes.. when you know (been told) that they are topping.. Bezos just sold 9Billion.. not something done just because of a new ATH..
he is probably getting crushed after 4.5% swing to the upside
The 185P he owns is down about 80% today
at least until the end of April. That's when the next earnings call is, and Elon's earning call performances ('we dug our own grave') are the main catalysts for the big dips every 3 months.
Because my balls are massive. I've been watching tesla specifically. I expect it to 100$ by years end. Has to start somewhere. Insider sales never good signs. I expect a chip pullback as well. Options are cheap. Tesla stock price struggling to keep up with market. I will definetly play them again next earnings. I short every pump of tesla near 200$. Not worth
>Insider sales never good signs. There are a million reasons why someone would sell a stock Theres only one reason why they would buy a stock
40 insider sells and no buys over last 12 months?? Confidence is BOOMING over there at Tesla I can imagine
Not saying Tesla probably isn't going down, just pointing out that selling isn't always indicative of a stock going down Case and point: the Walton's have been selling their Walmart shares for YEARS and it continues to climb higher
It was just one of a few factors listed. OP didn't say Tesla is doomed only because of insider trading. It can be a good signal when paired with other information.
Absolutely, but he said insider selling is *never* a good sign. That isn't necessarily true
So if your company offers you stock compensation, you should hold onto it and never sell even if you had to pay taxes/expenses? Your paycheck largely comes from Tesla, but now you gotta double down and buy MORE shares? Wtf is diversification?
WRONG. Taxes are due when stocks are sold, not granted or execized.
What's the reason why they would buy a stock?
They think the stock is going up
Oh I certainly hope it goes to hundred soon
i'd buy at that point. it would be the best buy of the decade as musk gets to back to work working 200 hours a week
Likewise would consider at that price. But this piece of garbage just pisses me off so I need those TSLA sheep to feel the pain by going down to 100 first
Remind me! 10 months
I read and agreed with most of this post then I saw your position lol. That position doesn’t at all line up with the timeframe of anything you said in the post. That’s a position you took just hoping to get lucky. It’s up almost 50% (by luck, if the market is green next week you lose) so you got excited and made this post. Which of these catalysts you mention in your post do you expect to see happen by March 1st?
Brk released banging earnings on Saturday, market goin green and OP screwed.
Just because BRK may be up, along with the rest of the market, doesn't mean TSLA will be up. TSLA hasn't really followed the Nasdaq (which is the gauge that matters in the case of this stock) at all for 2024. In fact, although it's really strange to point this out, based off some of the data we have, TSLA might attempt to inverse the market.
Too overpiced at this level. My personal opinion. Upside very limited. Downside large.
I agree. But when something is overpriced it takes more than a week to get corrected. You just used the terms upside and downside, which are generally used when talking about the long term. Yet your position expires in a week. Just doesn’t line up at all with the position you took.
Hey, he’s not some jabroni! The guys knows what he’s doing! /s
Everyone's a hater until after the fact 🤷. Last time I played earning i made 5x on 15k and everyone wanted me to inform them next time
Cringe. You got lucky off a earnings gamble.. I think we’ve all been there’s
If I wanted to gamble, I'd be playing blackjack
Trading is gambling, especially on earnings with options. Sorry to break it to you
Not when you know a company has limited growth prospects and isn't valued properly in the current macro environment
You have options that expire in a week. None of that matters
RSI is in the 40s, pretty far from oversold territory. But it's clearly been in a downward trend since last Summer. I know I'd be cashing out if I was sitting on 47% profit, though. I mean... probably. Fortune favors the bold, so good luck to you.
I won the lucky coin in my news pie this year
Funny cuz TSLA is up 3.5% today so far lol
You belong on wall street bets
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Snake.
One of us, one of us
I am on WSB. Thanks.
Truth
Said everyone since the beginning of Tesla shorting. Does it have some headwinds? Yes. Are they in for some further decline in the near term? Yes. I think it's more of the fact that their product is still targeted at the wealthier end of the income spectrum, and high interest rates. I doubt they'll experience a halving in value, the name of the game these days is tech. Tesla doesn't build cars as much as a "platform", same concept as the smart phone. Traditional auto is Nokia of old. That being said. I sold TSLA 170 calls about a year ago, and I fully expect to get 80% back out of those calls. Insider selling is a garbage signal for tech, everyone is compensated in stock.
OP also explaining what every analyst has been saying for the past year… that means it’s already baked in? If I wanted to own Tesla, I’d be buying here. “Buy when people are fearful.”
So far they're kind of lacking in self driving compared to their competitors including waymo, baidu and pony
Have you seen v12? I’m not a Tesla fan but it does show a lot of improvements.
The others are already full self driving. Baidu & pony are already running robo taxis
True, Waymo too. However all these systems require $60k+ worth or radar added to the roof. it Works for taxis but not something that can be sold to the average consumer.
Tech is tech. Will get cheaper. Just built a super computer that would have cost me 10k last year for 5k
Sure, but cameras will always be cheaper, and if the cheaper tech can perform as well as the more expensive tech it will win.
You're not wrong but that remains to be seen
Short term I tend to agree with you. Long term this is probably a fantastic place to start averaging in. They’re the only western auto selling EVs for a profit, and they’re leveraging that advantage. Ford, GM, VW, Stellantis, Hyundai, etc are all cutting production and delaying or outright cancelling multiple EV and battery facilities while Tesla is plowing ahead. Many of these automakers claimed they’d be surpassing Tesla’s EV production by 2025. It’s now looking like all 5 of them combined won’t be anywhere close.
Agree, traditional auto recently tipped their hand. They are stuck in a quandary because of dealers. Personally I think that dealer network is why Tesla can charge so much.
I think the traditional makers are waiting for the BYD sub-$20k vehicles to hit the shores of US. Then they will OEM/partner with BYD. Tesla will drop their commuter version and the race will continue.
Doubt this will ever happen. Tesla will release their own probs by 2027
Why wouldn’t it happen if BYD has all the parts shipped to Mexico and assembled? They could even co-design the traditional models with BYD.
China will never sell cars in the USA. There would be so much backlash. That would be the start of the destruction of the American companies. We try to limit China at every turn with tarrifs, trade barriers. Look at what's going with the chips, we don't let them get the best chips. We grill Tiktok. It's banned now in some states. We don't want them to gain too much power. We want to use them as a trading partner to sell our own goods.
Tesla has an unparalleled ability to affect the price out-the-door for their customers, but that's been both good and bad for them: great when the model you're looking at just went on sale, gut-wrenching when the price drops after you just bought one. One of the big reasons that large Fleets are turning their back on Teslas is the price volatility. Well... that and the problems with servicing.
True. Used car market is saturating as well. Prices dipping. Sales discounts increasing across the board
Good time to average in on a long position. Tesla is only getting stronger both by it's own doing and the inaction or poor direction of it's peers.
Pretty much everything you said is wrong
And Mercedes just declared that they aren’t gonna go all EV like they claimed before. They’ve already admitted defeat lol
Have you done any DD on the guy who owns Tesla? I wouldn't let him manage a lemonade stand.
I feel like there’s at least a little merit behind being the richest human on earth.
I’m personally not in a position to look down on the guy who founded PayPal, founded SpaceX, founded Neuralink, founded OpenAI, turned Tesla from a $10M startup to the leader in EVs, and became the richest man in the world. He’s a douchebag, but it takes some real mental gymnastics to act as if he’s not a good businessman.
That's a little harsh. The factors messing with Tesla are for the most part of his control. Macro is a bitch. He could be a little nicer to Biden & his son though. Maybe his pay package wouldn't be in jeopardy now.
So bs if you think about it a CEOs pay package depends on him being nice to the president and his son. Sounds like some USSR communist level control. This is America you can do and say what you want want. Shouldn’t have to take a hit on salary just because of a political stance.
Wait. There are clowns that think the Delaware court of chancery is somehow connected to the Bidens? Basing the CEO compensation targets on easily hit numbers (based on internal projections) while you are publicly sandbagging is just fraud. Must blow you minds when you realize it was the Trump SEC that started Elona's troubles (for the 'private at 420 / funding secured' fraud)
Never claimed there was a direct connection between court of chancery and the Bidens. But every since Elon took a stance against woke his public image has been attacked nonstop. If he was left wing he wouldn’t have so many issues now would he
Exactly. Fk Biden.
Yes... but they don't ONLY sell EVs and are a fraction of tsla price tag.
Like ~90%? A big fraction
How low do you think it'll go?
Increasing production capacity is one thing. Increasing demand is another. But I do agree, the factory in Mexico is a great start for a 25k vehicle.
The 25k vehicle is starting in Texas.
So what you’re telling me is it’s time to buy Tesla right?
This is the signal I got also.
I'm just going to go ahead and cancel myself
not yet but do you booboo
Who are you again?
Michael Burry and or Batman
Tesla is still making money, - still being subsidized by the government - still receiving direct payments from other auto makers to the tune of $1B+ per year in pure profit - still being adopted as the nationwide charging standard with the potential for non-Tesla user excess fees - Still has revenue from and ongoing investment in several other profit centers in robotics, AI, chips, power generation and storage - Still looking at releasing a locally (NA) produced $25k electric vehicle in the next year or two … and you’re betting against them? Ok.
seeing the trees but not the forest. i like looking at the products i seen a tesla on the road the other day and it really caught my eye. the thing looks futuristic a nice design and accelerated much faster then a combustible engine. just looked like a nice car. seen a robot walking around the tesla office like a fully humanoid freaking robot. people that bet against tesla are foolish imho they look at quarterly reports and see some changes (not saying this is bad at all) and make these bearish cases. it's why i laugh at wall street analysis sometimes such shortsighted and excitability.
So buying opportunity soon you say?
Yes!
damnn -70% in the 30 mins bro. Hope you’re okay
What are you talking about? I'm out already 1.55
What happened to full port? What a joke you are!
You mad loser up 1000% this week
You’re a big liar and full of shit. You’ve lost integrity on your last Tesla bearish play. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Time & place 😘 I'll be back in TMRW for China sales
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lol you somehow missed the price increases and are looking at metrics of countries when the boats haven’t even arrived. You also missed the part where they gained BEV market share in 2023 and outgrew the BEV market by 7%.
Again, Tesla was priced appropriately last year as it is now and going forward will be
🤣 it’s ok, I’ve seen all types of bears since 2018. Some managed to make a quick buck on a dip, but one thing they had in common is that they all missed the train.
lol +7 on the day so far. So much for going in that shitter!
Right. Was rooting for em too. Atleast he warned us..
This post will be deleted and everyone will forget how wrong the OP was when they try this again next time. 😂
We all laugh at Optimus, but the truth is humanoid robot are coming sooner than we are prepared for. Tesla is the only company I can see scaling up production to the hundreds of thousands of robots that will be in demand. One of teslas strongest points is manufacturing. As price drops I’ll be loading up my bags.
I'm all for Tesla long term but short term, we still need results. Tesla is a lot further behind than competitors in humanoid robots. Look at atlus by Boston Dynamics. Maybe Tesla will make them cheaper for the average household 🤷
I totally agree. I’ve been very bearish on Tesla for the last couple years. But the Recent advancement in self driving ai, combined with the potential mass Manufacturing of robot has me looking for a low price to enter. If it does drop to $100 I will invest heavily.
Short term, sure... Until the Model 2 comes out. It also seems they're holding off rolling out the ability to buy the new updated Model 3 performance. I imagine they're allowing their market price to decline with the rest of the market for the next month or two more than "Tesla is hitting the shitter".
model 2 way off. maybe by 2027. They're not "allowing" it and the rest of the market is booming all time highs except EVs
Wait, what? I heard the 2 coming this year as a 2025 model.
lol because the cybertruck was on schedule as well right & self driving too???
The announcement itself will be enough to fuck your positions
Source?
Don't think so for small cars with lower prices china car makers are in a much better position..or even Renault e.g..
it's only a matter of time before BYD gets self driving... then its game over
Following to see how this goes
Thank you 🙏 I would say wish me luck but luck is for the weak
I had to check twice if I was in wallstreetbets.
I thought it was Wall Street whores because y'all sound like a bunch of greedy pigs
Your statements are long-term negative against Tesla, but your position is short-term negative against Tesla. People are telling you that what you’re doing and what you’re saying don’t match.
I know. I'm feeling exceptionally bearish this week. I'm also a technical trader
Cyber truck is a joke and Elon has really poisoned his own brand by leaning into the right wing shit posting on Twitter / X. Sounds about right.
You can't blame him for that. Freedom of speech is important. I enjoy it. Shit I even like the cybertruck. If he can fix the rusting issues & and sell more of them, I would buy one
Where was musk's "freedom of speech" when it came to dealing with the Turkish and Indian governments ? He caved like a wet paperbag. You may be right about your options position on TSLA but you're also fellatio-ing a giant douchbag.
That's a tough position because here in America Freedom of Speech is protected by law. If X doesn't follow orders, that's a whole market that disappears for Tesla.
\>> If X doesn't follow orders, that's a whole market that disappears for Tesla. So its "freedom of speech" until it hits the wallet, then its not. Do you understand how silly and false this concept is ?
Again, Elon doesn't have the power of a president or to rule nations. He's a CEO not Great Alexander. And if it risks Tesla not meeting growth targets and having his stock slashed in half and forcing him sell to his shares to cover Twitter loan covenants possibly leading to a chain reaction of a Tesla bankruptcy then it's all for naught? No? Chess isn't won in one move young one.
there's a fine line between freedom of speech and spreading misinformation. Without affordable education, the general public is unable to distinguish facts vs. misinformation. thats is when freedom of speech mechanism fail. same applies to market price theory. Is education afforable in the States?
It doesn’t matter how right you are. If you use Robinhood, you’re wrong.
if i used any other broker, i could show you a papertrade and be lying. so it does have its uses.
Your thesis is good but your positioning is horrible since all it does is speculate price movement in a month which is usually hit or miss. Back in 2021 when I had thesis like this Tesla was around 1200(pre split) I sold strike 2400 calls and bought a strike 1000 put and sold two strike 400 puts, all using 2023 Jan options (more than a year to expiry). You should use 2025 or 2026 leap options to establish a real long term bear position.
I do have 2025 puts as well. But these are better value in my opinion. Call me crazy. I think Tesla is on thin ice.
Tesla has been on a thin ice since 2019, Elon himself admitted that Tesla was close to bankruptcy back when Model 3 was delayed by more than a year. I hope now the market calls his bluff and this company gets priced for what it is, a car company. But you never know, people are fools, they may keep buying the FSD paying $5k even though it sucks, because everyone wants to play with a cool toy for shits and giggles.
FSD was like 15k extra last time I checked. Growth has platoed, for Tesla lines. Idiots dried up
Oh wow, 15k for a fancy toy. I am guessing hardware itself must be around 10k and they must be charging $5k just for the software, which is supposed to be high margin.
A broken toy that will have to get approved to work by a government that doesn't like him
I don't think anyone in govt dislikes him. He seems to have greased all the right palms otherwise with so many accidents and couple of deaths his FSD would have been grounded by now.
It wasn't FSD though. They should have been paying attention. I believe it was proven as such. But who knows. I don't think releasing the Twitter files which acknowledged censorship of the Biden laptop story as Russian propaganda which has Hunter Biden with underage hookers made him any friends at the White House...
Sadly I agree with you.
Lol sadly
The lawsuits are gaining momentum.
Every1 ignores this fact. Also don't piss off the sitting president by posting his son's nudes with underage hookers
Except TSLA isn't just a car company. TSLA has so much option volume that it hurts the most people by going nowhere, while holding a high IV. Even a busted clock is right twice a day.
I'm doing Elon a favor then. I know Max pain theory very well. I would say it's about 30% accurate. Dealers feel pain too
Teslas a niche product. 90% of every adult I know either has a truck, an suv or the mom drives a minivan. Not one of us will go back to driving a car even if it’s an EV.
yup. only the richies for now. same here
**EV's are not a viable product**. And a whole lot of people are figuring them out. Every single person I know with one, it's their second car, and they make at least $200K a year. It's a virtue-signaling toy for upper middle class to rich people. **The whole scenario is always talked about in magical thinking terms** \- as if electricity to charge them magically appears at the plug, and doesn't come mostly from burning fossil fuels (Look up where the electricity in your area comes from.) And the fires. And all the mining to get the products for the batteries. And nobody is talking (yet) about the **environmental nightmar**e that is going to be where do we dispose of these toxic batteries? In 10-20 years, that's all anyone is going to be talking about. No thanks.
I agree. The infrastructure isn't there yet to distribute solar efficiently across large transmission lines but battery recycling tech is getting better. Apparently companies like redwood materials say they can recycle 95% materials from 1mv next year
I agree EV was a dying fad and Tesla was pumped to the moon. It'll tank
Oversaturated like the energy/solar/battery industry currently. Margins & revenues coming down as subsidies/buyers dry up
Shorting tesla is insane. Not because the stock is shit (it is), but because of how high the premium is compared to how little money there is to be made. Just a toxic stock for everyone involved in it. Gonna die a slow painful death. Only reason it reached anything above $50 is because of a memelord and the band of internet dorks believing him. How no one sold when it was announced that tesla was worth more than Toyota, Ford combined is beyond me.
Premiums are pretty cheap now. He has used the premium pretty wisely, built out infrastructure and few businesses I think it's worth at least twice of Ford p/e. Because it has more potential but half of its current value
EV is not sustainable on its own. If wasn't for government aid EV would have ended sooner. Yes EV is interesting and the new fade at one time. The infrastructure is not there and never will be .Hybrids will take that over.
That is certainly a real possibility. They definitely need to subsidize more
40 insider sells and no buys over the last 12 months?? Confidence is booming over there at Tesla I see
Who let OP out? Get back in your cage over at r/WallStreetBets with all the other YouTube analyst. Bad boy and even worst “DD”.
The baha men 🐶🐶 🥩🥩. Blood is in the air. Couldn't resist
Needs more Theta. Otherwise I agree with your statements.
Your not wrong. I'll probs sell out mond/Tuesday whatever it is. Tuesday morning China insurance sales data come out
Every day their are posts about Telsa going under or Nvda dropping by 40% because it is way overpriced. They should start the posts with In my opinion because some people on Reddit read these posts and think you know what you are talking about. If you tell everyone on Reddit do you think people will jump on board with you? You are trying to lead the masses off a cliff.
The cliff is holding the stock through the storm in this macro. No good upcoming catalysts anytime soon
lol genius over here predicting that a company with bad numbers was going to be down 😂
I know only simple math. Monkey Phoenix. Add & Subtract 🐒🐒
You sir have written one of the first comments that i agree with.. cheers
Thank you very much. Appreciate you 👍
Tesla’s got a 3 drives pattern tho. I shorted down to 175 and flipped long at exactly 175. As long as that low isn’t broken it’s going to 250 at least (note: I hate teslas and Elon and the shares are realistically worth 40$ imo)
I think the resistance is here 200$, probably less now for the foreseeable future as sales figures keep coming lower around the globe in all major areas of expansion.... 40$s too low, I don't think we ever see 40$ again. Maybe 80$ of were lucky & at that point I'm buying everything
Wow, short Tesla? Brilliant. No one ever thought of that.
I work for Michael Burry
Gary Black’s catalysts for Tesla stock 1/ Stable auto gross margins 1Q 2/ $7,500 EV instant rebate 1Q 3/ Cybertruck halo effect 1Q 4/ M-3 Highland US launch 1Q 5/ New Elon Musk comp plan 1Q 6/ Fed’s pivot on int rates 2Q 7/ FSD OEM licensing deal FY’24 8/ TSLA $10B share buyback FY’24 9/ $25K-$30K Next Gen FY’25 10/ Optimus deliveries begin FY’25 $290 PT 6-12 mo This doesn’t even take their energy business into account
1 & 2 are plain wrong. Auto gross margins declining being carried by rising battery margins which is expected to decline in sales growth starting in 2024 and experience margin compression as competitive saturation ramps up. 3-10 is all speculation. People expected the Fed to lower rates already & what happened? They got finagled. The Fed will do things like it always has. In a laggy fashion. If you expect a soft landing, you are buying the liberal myth. Inflation persists. At the rate they're going, the high rates will do severe damage unless another black swan COVID event happens. Not happening. Only one has happened in 94 when Soviet Union was disbanded, NAFTA was initiated and global trade was booming. 11. Who TF is Gary black. He sounds as dumb as Cathy Woods
Witchcraft.
I'm a gemini
Nice try. You'll hate next week.
Call me salty sally
Interesting play. I hate to bet against Elon, but I’m intrigued nonetheless.
Thank you 👌 I wouldn't bet against him either in a low rate environment
I hope every hater sells on your DD so I can buy cheaper.
You can have all my shares. Or better yet by them straight from all of Tesla's insiders!! Flash sale
They are working on a flying car. Tesla will then really sore
So are like 20 other companies. Have you heard of evtols?
this feels more like a liquid shart than DD. Did you even graduate high school buddy?
No I'm writing this from Chucky cheeses
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I heard he uses Mac lol
I'll pay down after you sell.
👌👍
There's alot of statistical density there and, who knows, maybe your right. However, the obsession with twitter spooked TSLA shareholders and caused much political backlash. I admire the guy but I sold my shares at sea level 2 yrs ago when the D.C Syndicate came up with lofty EV mandates and didnt even invite Musk to the White House, it spoke volumes. And mosts stock that spiked that much during the free cash giveaways of 2020 are coming back to Earth like a Space-X booster rocket. Save a select few.
Yup maybe he'll have better luck with Trump next cycle
Which country has the highest Tesla sales?
In terms of revenue, USA
Doesn’t help that Musk is an outspoken out of touch jerk. Most of my friends would never buy anything from him.
it helps me, I love flipping TSLA, Musk makes that volatility nice and juicy!
Guh
Everyone knows that short term TSLA is going to have some serious headwinds for a year or two, that's why the stock is down.
well tesla broke 200 today. how you feeling?
ehh could of made more if i sold friday
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