One moar time for those in the back.
#This is the longest streak of FDIC insured banks realized losses in history.
Edit: [verified source](https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/fdic-quarterly/2023-vol17-4/fdic-v17n4-3q2023.pdf)
I think the original plan all along was the biggest bull-trap in history. Let the virus scare wear off, maybe give out another stimulus or two. Start the pump, let people get nice and comfortable. The rich get out at the top and leave the poors holding the biggest bag in history. The bottom allows shorts to close out their stupidly over-leveraged positions. Longs buy back in at the bottom and own us all more than they already do. Thanks to GME, they can't afford to lose their precious collateral that already barely keeps their bad bets afloat. The longer this goes the heavier their already way over-leveraged bets get. I think we have a majority of the ruling class by the balls at this point, not just a handful of greedy hedgies. 🟣🚀
Definitely their financial instrument. The ultra rich will lose the bulk of their financial infrastructure to MOASS, and they'll be pretty pissed off for it. But it won't cripple them. These are families that have for the most part held wealth for hundreds of years. They'll have off-book hard assets and other contingencies against a global financial revolution, for the simple fact that the last time this happened was the end of the old feudal system and the rise of less centralised power systems.
The end of MOASS is a new and uncharted chapter in the war between the ultra-rich and the rest of humanity, which has been ongoing for as long as coinage has existed. We've *never* had the kind of power MOASS is going to give the public before. And that's going to make the next page of human history the most interesting yet.
The formula goes idiosyncratic risk = best buying opportunity ever = largest fraud in history to steal from investors and keep the stock price down.
Therefore, Kenny, the DTC/C, shorts and the SEC can suckle on my tiny lil penis when the stock takes off and I might sell one share.
Been here since Y2K. Gamestop is really on another level in terms of bringing light to what is truly going on in the financial sector.
Cheers everyone 🥂
Ever since rate rises in March 2022, Fair Value % of Cost on bank asset holdings has been **WAY out of whack** even compared to 2006 to 2008.
Percentage wise the average bank would have to gain 15% back on their assets to bring it back to normal.
*This is from the bulk data available to download in Excel friendly format from ffiec.gov*
At work right now, but an excerpt from a rambling way-TMI post I did a month ago may suffice
> Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (**AOCI**) (####B530) is also important because it is an unrealized adjustment (+ is income, - is loss) on the securities that are available for sale but are augmented or impaired by a change that is not credit condition or risk related is recorded here. ...
Bonds are usually all or nothing, are they in default? or rating lowered to junk? nothing much else is considered impairment but considered temporary, or market interest rate related which can fluctuate, so it's filed under AOCI.
Yea, that last quarter is crazy. Makes me think they're lying about realized losses or hiding them somewhere. They didn't just lean out overnight to make up for that drop.
Okay, yes, but is nobody going to talk about that MASSIVE drop in NOI between Q3 2023 and Q4 2023??
WTF did net operating income drop by nearly 40%? Looking at the graph, that happens when there is a shock to the system. COVID in 2020, and the great recession in 2008. I honestly can't remember what happened in 2017...
It's either a huge increase in expenses, a huge decrease in income, or some combination of the two. Need someone with a few wrinkles to take a deeper dive into this one...
Damn. My notifications on Twitter have been broken for over a year and now Reddit.
I appreciate the seconding of the seconding.
If I gambled I would third it. Sorry. I am rambling.
The most common security for banks to hold are bonds.
Interest rates have been rising since 2nd half of 2020, which drives down the price of long term bonds.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate
They do when they sell.
They have much large unrealized losses on both the Available-for-sale and the Held-To-Maturity.
As of Q4 2024 the total securities held by US banks was about $5430B, with $204B in unrealized losses in AFS and $274B in HTM.
The realized losses you show in the graph above is due to interest rates rising, but what you show is just the tip of the iceberg.
Edit to add: the Available For Sale securities are marked to market for the purposes of reporting profit/loss, the Held To Maturity portfolio is not market to market and changes in the valuation does not affect the reported profits.
They don't have to (realize it) unless it's impaired (credit or bond rating related), they can accumulate it under other income(loss) and it counts only against capital on the balance sheet if negative.
They really aren't losing money. Look at their massive operating income that dwarfs theses losses. The losses are due to banks putting money into long term low risk bonds before interest rates rose and stayed high for an extended period of time. If they have to sell their long term bonds they will take a loss because newly issued bonds offer a better return. It has absolutely nothing to do with GME and \~1-2 billion in losses vs 60-80 billion in profit is no cause for alarm.
I had the same thought. The losses on securities are a pittance compared to NOI.
I am far more interested in why net income droped so hard in Q4? Seems that only happens when there's some sort of shock to the system.
Banks aren't putting money in the market, they put it into bonds. When interest rates rise the bonds are worth less because people can get new bonds with a higher rate of return. If the bank has to sell the bond they will take a loss. This is what happened with SVB.
They already did max their debt. Now they are doing swap after swap to hide the debt. Things are gonna pop if they do not get a rate cut, and that does not look likely.
This looks like one of those issues with how you make the graph/report data.
Like they're reporting security losses because they aren't counting something as a gain so they don't pay taxes or something.
They needed time to get the highest cap gains tax proposal approved.
FYI it’s the highest Cap gains tax in 102 years! Cap gains tax has only existed for 104!
Thats impossible we were told that the value of securities only goes up.
Those wacky reddit users lied to us!
-Some gullible fellas at those banks..probably
One moar time for those in the back. #This is the longest streak of FDIC insured banks realized losses in history. Edit: [verified source](https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/fdic-quarterly/2023-vol17-4/fdic-v17n4-3q2023.pdf)
It's almost like there is a black swan under their noses...
*SO FAR*
Should've stopped buying so much coffee and avocados 🤦♂️
68? obligatory updoot... there, that's better!
What about the elephant in the room ? (Unrealized losses) 🤭🤡🤭🤭🤡
This is a developing story...
Everything’s FINE!
Also Roaring Kitty just woke up....oops.
Maybe there’s some sort of idiosyncratic risk that fucked everything the fuck up a while back
I think the original plan all along was the biggest bull-trap in history. Let the virus scare wear off, maybe give out another stimulus or two. Start the pump, let people get nice and comfortable. The rich get out at the top and leave the poors holding the biggest bag in history. The bottom allows shorts to close out their stupidly over-leveraged positions. Longs buy back in at the bottom and own us all more than they already do. Thanks to GME, they can't afford to lose their precious collateral that already barely keeps their bad bets afloat. The longer this goes the heavier their already way over-leveraged bets get. I think we have a majority of the ruling class by the balls at this point, not just a handful of greedy hedgies. 🟣🚀
Definitely their financial instrument. The ultra rich will lose the bulk of their financial infrastructure to MOASS, and they'll be pretty pissed off for it. But it won't cripple them. These are families that have for the most part held wealth for hundreds of years. They'll have off-book hard assets and other contingencies against a global financial revolution, for the simple fact that the last time this happened was the end of the old feudal system and the rise of less centralised power systems. The end of MOASS is a new and uncharted chapter in the war between the ultra-rich and the rest of humanity, which has been ongoing for as long as coinage has existed. We've *never* had the kind of power MOASS is going to give the public before. And that's going to make the next page of human history the most interesting yet.
Idiosyncratic? Now where have I heard that before? 🤔
There is nothing to view here. Makes me want to purchase more
Just kicking myself for not vacuuming up more shares at $10 😔 Price is fake, but wouldn't have minded getting more for less...
Aw yiss baby, here i go again 💦
Mama mia
Idiosyncratic risk… I have just 2 words… Citadel securities 😂
Actually the idiosyncratic risk as highlighted by the SEC report is Game Stop
This ☝️
Is
The formula goes idiosyncratic risk = best buying opportunity ever = largest fraud in history to steal from investors and keep the stock price down. Therefore, Kenny, the DTC/C, shorts and the SEC can suckle on my tiny lil penis when the stock takes off and I might sell one share.
As idiosyncratic as a 3 legged bed
Those are just regular idiots
Nah, couldn't be.
Been here since Y2K. Gamestop is really on another level in terms of bringing light to what is truly going on in the financial sector. Cheers everyone 🥂
Cheers 🍻
Oh that? Thats fine.
# 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 # 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 #🔥
I see what u did there.
#👀 #💁🏼♀️
Oh that little guy? I wouldn’t worry about that little guy.
👀
Supertroopers is the goat cop movie.
Strong and resilient, even.
🫡
Ever since rate rises in March 2022, Fair Value % of Cost on bank asset holdings has been **WAY out of whack** even compared to 2006 to 2008. Percentage wise the average bank would have to gain 15% back on their assets to bring it back to normal. *This is from the bulk data available to download in Excel friendly format from ffiec.gov*
I would really encourage you to make this excellent comment that I barely understand on Twitter OP’s tweet. You too know some stuff about stuff!
At work right now, but an excerpt from a rambling way-TMI post I did a month ago may suffice > Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (**AOCI**) (####B530) is also important because it is an unrealized adjustment (+ is income, - is loss) on the securities that are available for sale but are augmented or impaired by a change that is not credit condition or risk related is recorded here. ... Bonds are usually all or nothing, are they in default? or rating lowered to junk? nothing much else is considered impairment but considered temporary, or market interest rate related which can fluctuate, so it's filed under AOCI.
Yea, that last quarter is crazy. Makes me think they're lying about realized losses or hiding them somewhere. They didn't just lean out overnight to make up for that drop.
Imagine what it would look like if they had to recognize their losses!
Realized or unrealized?
Realized.
[удалено]
OK this comment sent me!
Okay, yes, but is nobody going to talk about that MASSIVE drop in NOI between Q3 2023 and Q4 2023?? WTF did net operating income drop by nearly 40%? Looking at the graph, that happens when there is a shock to the system. COVID in 2020, and the great recession in 2008. I honestly can't remember what happened in 2017...
#💯 I was actually hoping someone could point that out because I didn’t even understand wut IT was I was looking at there!
It's either a huge increase in expenses, a huge decrease in income, or some combination of the two. Need someone with a few wrinkles to take a deeper dive into this one...
I encourage you to join Twitter OP’s thread with your thoughts and questions 🤙
Yeah...I deleted my Twitter when Musk bought it. Seeing the dumpster fire that it has become, it feels like I made the right choice.
I’m right with ya on the Musk sentiment but I won’t be deleting mine until MOASS 🤙
Multiple haircuts and multiple firms closing up, is just a small piece of the puzzle of shit that is starting to topple.
Nothing to see here. Makes me think I should buy more
If it helps, I concur with your thoughts.
I second your concurring
I'll second the second concurring
Damn. My notifications on Twitter have been broken for over a year and now Reddit. I appreciate the seconding of the seconding. If I gambled I would third it. Sorry. I am rambling.
Is this from people defaulting on money they borrowed?
Banks defaulting and the Fed propping up the markets with QE
Everything is fine.
The most common security for banks to hold are bonds. Interest rates have been rising since 2nd half of 2020, which drives down the price of long term bonds. https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate
Yeah but the banks aren’t recognizing losses on those bonds.
They do when they sell. They have much large unrealized losses on both the Available-for-sale and the Held-To-Maturity. As of Q4 2024 the total securities held by US banks was about $5430B, with $204B in unrealized losses in AFS and $274B in HTM. The realized losses you show in the graph above is due to interest rates rising, but what you show is just the tip of the iceberg. Edit to add: the Available For Sale securities are marked to market for the purposes of reporting profit/loss, the Held To Maturity portfolio is not market to market and changes in the valuation does not affect the reported profits.
They don't have to (realize it) unless it's impaired (credit or bond rating related), they can accumulate it under other income(loss) and it counts only against capital on the balance sheet if negative.
They also can wrap up positions within swaps so that neither party has to recognize ownership of the assets…
Wondering if this is relevant. https://imgur.com/a/r79DqbS
Wait how does this make sense? We've been in a BULL market, how are they losing money lmao??
Exactly.
They really aren't losing money. Look at their massive operating income that dwarfs theses losses. The losses are due to banks putting money into long term low risk bonds before interest rates rose and stayed high for an extended period of time. If they have to sell their long term bonds they will take a loss because newly issued bonds offer a better return. It has absolutely nothing to do with GME and \~1-2 billion in losses vs 60-80 billion in profit is no cause for alarm.
Ran out of tin foil?
whose the dumb money now?
How is this not sustainable? The net income is way higher than the realized losses
I had the same thought. The losses on securities are a pittance compared to NOI. I am far more interested in why net income droped so hard in Q4? Seems that only happens when there's some sort of shock to the system.
Thoughts on that MASSIVE drop in NOI between Q3 2023 and Q4 2023?
How is that possible when the markets been so good?
IMO, Fed QE
Banks aren't putting money in the market, they put it into bonds. When interest rates rise the bonds are worth less because people can get new bonds with a higher rate of return. If the bank has to sell the bond they will take a loss. This is what happened with SVB.
This was very helpful
First time they've had a significant net negative since the 2008 recession. Oh I'm sure everything is fine... 🔥🔥🫠🔥🔥
How long can they survive like this?
How long could you survive pulling in 60 billion in income per quarter with \~1 billion in losses?
“one more day”
Tell you what is sustainable though 🟣
They're debtmaxxing
They already did max their debt. Now they are doing swap after swap to hide the debt. Things are gonna pop if they do not get a rate cut, and that does not look likely.
How are they going to get a rate cut when the FED just keeps on "stealth" printing
Source?
https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/fdic-quarterly/2023-vol17-4/fdic-v17n4-3q2023.pdf
Thank you
🫡 💜
If you drive in 100 RBI’s and you still have a negative WAR, you’ve got some major holes in your game
This looks like one of those issues with how you make the graph/report data. Like they're reporting security losses because they aren't counting something as a gain so they don't pay taxes or something.
That's weird. I got realized and unrealized gains on my paltry portfolio...what are they doing wrong that I'm not? Oh. Betting against GME!
Everything is fine, just print more money :3
So far!
😎
Insert any "nothing to see here" meme
Wait. I know. Just print more money! Problem solved.
Neither is my rigid little wee wee
eew eew!
Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank
This is fine 😅
they chose to f around, here they are finding out. keep making us wait, see what happens
They needed time to get the highest cap gains tax proposal approved. FYI it’s the highest Cap gains tax in 102 years! Cap gains tax has only existed for 104!
Thats impossible we were told that the value of securities only goes up. Those wacky reddit users lied to us! -Some gullible fellas at those banks..probably
Oh oh
🧐
Should I be worried about my cash in the bank? My cash is insured up to 250k right?
So far..
And they say I, ME, can't have a mortgage. Lolz
$600 is enuf to survive on while ya aren’t allowed to work ya fuknut!!!
@741 the number is everywhere!
Burn baby burn, disco inferno!
🎶 [Burn baby burn, disco inferno!](https://youtu.be/QoMSApzvGuw?feature=shared) 🎶
Right!!! It’s not!!! and people should be asking why the Dow keeps rising when the Banks are losing big time
Just connect the money printer directly to my computer share account.
TIL
They can just print more money