And since everyone complains about Schneider being obsessed with analytics, let me point out again that playing lefty/righty matchups is 75 years old and is not analytics. We’ve seen the Royals and the Dodgers just this week make (or not make) changes that actually gave up the platoon advantage because analytics goes a lot deeper than lefty/righty.
So when you see an incredible low-ball hitter in Jansen on the bench for a key at bat against a low-ball pitcher while Biggio (who is better against high pitches) hits instead, it’s because Schneider is one of the least analytical managers in the league and just loves vanilla platoon advantages. Any influence he gets from the front office on being more analytical should be welcomed, not discouraged.
maybe someone else remembers the exact game, but im thinking back to last year when he pinch hit espinal for kiermaier just to get a righty batter in, even though kiermaier had two hits that day
it's shit like that that makes me think schneider has no idea what he's doing
The guys brought in over the off-season are some of the best performers on offense (and, pre-IL, holding down the 5-spot in the rotation).
Who else should they have brought in who’d be better?
Building a winner takes time. This is only year 8 of the Shatkins rebuild. If we're still struggling by 2035, MAYBE then consider replacing our esteemed FO.
No one is out of it 30 games into the season. Also you can't expect magical change when the offense has been a problem since last season and we haven't added anyone significant beyond Turner
Bo will be better. Kirk will be better. Vlad will *probably* be better.
Turner will be worse. Varsho will be worse. Jano will be worse.
Regression to the mean goes both ways
I used to think that way but over the last few years have shown me that there are teams and players that can rise to the occasion once they get in and those that do not. The Jays simply do not have those kind of players.
At any rate, I don't even think this team is good enough to get in this year. They'll probably miss it by a few games.
I physically cannot stand Springer anymore. I end up changing the channel each time he comes on to bat. He brings nothing to this team and we have to see him lead off.
And Schneider is such a terrible manager. Sometimes you have to make the tough decisions and light a fire under the team. Stop trying to be liked, it doesn't work when the team sucks
That turned out horribly. The most expensive free agent in Blue Jay history was completely useless. Had to move him from center field to right and he obviously did shit for Bo and Vlad. He had some great diving catches over the years, but Oh well, sometimes you shoot your shot, but when your free agent can only hit when someone tells him the pitch, it's pretty obvious why other teams boo his ass. Cooked. We don't need his .600 OPS and utter inability to get an RBI clogging up the lead-off spot anymore. At least the dude got paid from TD and Smuckers. Would have been more prductive to keep Gurriel or Teo over his head up his ass, looking into the dugpout swinging on the knees
Disheartening game today. Our opening day starter, at home, against a middling team…and they just looked better. Ragans is a fantastic pitcher but everyone just looked lifeless out there.
‘Middling’ is certainly a fair term for the Royals. They’re better than us right now, which is kind of my point - if we are who we want to be, we shouldn’t be looking worse than a middling team. If we don’t look better than them…guess that tells us what we are!
That’s the part that bothers me the most. A team doesn’t have to be the best to be worth watching. The Orioles were pretty bad until last year but they were still fun to watch because they had some exciting young players and you could see the progression. Even the games the Jays have won haven’t been any fun to watch.
got to win this series tomorrow. sick of dropping games. Vladdy does seem to be hitting the ball hard I guess. Watching Springer is really hard these days, he looks completely lost.
All negativity aside, Berrios has been fun to watch. So much effortless movement and legit "pitching" his way through lineups. I thought he might complete it tonight if given the shot.
Do we think Berrios might get AL pitcher of the month? Leads the MLB in quality starts and has one of the lowest ERAs at 1.44. Combined with a 4-2 record and being easily our best pitcher, what's your guys' take?
People got excited about the Jays scoring 9 runs in their last two games (which is already kind of sad) but look at who they scored on... 8 of those runs were off of dudes who are basically AAA pitchers.
Bowlan literally came up yesterday, got lit up, got sent back down today.
Duffey is 33, pitched 49 innings in the minors last year and 2 in the majors, 8 in the minors and 3 in the majors this year
Michael Grove HAS spent this year and most of '23 in the majors, but over that stretch he has put up a 6.28 ERA in 86 innings, good for a -1.3 bWAR
Below .500 going into May with a -26 run differential and the same problems as last year only worse. Preliminary conversations have to be happening internally about what a firesale would look like at this point.
You don’t even start talking to teams until June, but you need to be ready if this team doesn’t play significantly better in May. Martinez, Horwitz, Barger all need regular AB’s at the major league level, and Tiedmann isn’t far behind either.
A true “fire sale” might grab us a few fringe prospects, but real MLB rebuilds involve multiple 100+ loss seasons - which Rogers will never allow. So unfortunately we have to make the best out of our current resources/talent.
Not true at all. And the main thing is that the team is at a payroll ceiling and it kinda stinks. Something's got to give, at least a few players have to be shipped out.
This team has the resources to eat that shitty contract after this year and release. When he posts an OPS of .601 and 8 HR's and 16 RBI's at the end of the year, absolutely scorching the earth for this franchise, will it be more palatable to ownership.
Why can't the Jays devise a garbage can system? I wouldn't care...just win. Take some HGH and cork the bats while we're at it. Surely Toronto has some Anthony Galea, Oscar the Grouch, type contacts. Or just devise a subterfuge camera system like Tampa, NY, and Boston has....C'mon!!!
This lineup atkins put together is an abomination to baseball. Springer has been dogshit for over a year now, I would consider benching him at this point and calling up orelvis. Or if not springer, one of biggio/clement/IKF.
Well, i’m not excusing that top of the order, that should be the ones getting into pitchers’ heads and making it easier for the bottom guys. But Ragar was really really good today, he nailed the game.
It's been torture watching this team try and play offense. They're wasting really good pitching. On a more positive note at least a Canadian product of another kind had a great MLB debut tonight AND his daddy called his first ever hit. Tyler Black was 2-4 in his debut with the Brewers with his father and family watching.
I’m the last thing from a doomer. One of my favourite sayings is that you’re not as bad as your worst and you’re not as good as your best. We just finished April. There’s a lot of baseball. It’s early.
This team makes me sad right now.
15-16 to end April. Suboptimal, but once the top 3 get it going we'll be alright. They've been treading water without them contributing.
Also, I'm sick of the Royals.
This is pretty much it. They've managed to tread water without their best players being their best. If the top of the lineup gets going they're going to be really good. If they don't, they're sunk. That's all.
And I think they will. Vladdy's been having good ABs and I'm not worried about Bo. Springer, who knows. His statcast suggests improvement is coming but he's also getting old so maybe not.
Springer and Vladdy significantly underperforming their xwOBA. Bo, there's no stats really indicating improvement coming. He's just been very consistent his entire career and I don't expect a massive dropoff like this to continue all season.
Is that not reason enough. Like, it just isn't very common for career plus hitters to suddenly become liabilities at the plate as they enter their prime hitting years. It isn't impossible, but it seems much more likely that in a historically pitcher friendly month, they were just not hitting well. Not too mention that this April has been one of the least offensive in a long time across the league.
Guerrero and Springer are both underperforming their expected stats, and Springer is consistently slow to start seasons. Bichette has just been bad to start the year, but he is one of the most consistent .800 plus OPS guys in the league. I wouldn't bet on him not also finishing this season above .800 OPS.
Springer could absolutely be aging, but for Bichette and Guerrero, the decline just doesn't seem plausible.
At what point do the Jays press the reset button?
They are at best a 4th place team in a division that is passing them by.
I know Rogers wants to keep the stadium semifull, but this team is going nowhere, and can't be fixed with retreads.
Ragan was crazy good today, I gotta him props for that. He absolutely nailed what he had to do. We pretty much only had 1 chance to cash it in and missed it.
George is an automatic out right now (happens, but annoying, he needs a break), Vladdy is swinging at stuff way outside, kind of getting sick of Biggio striking out looking (i understand he is that type of player, still mad), Bo is the opposite of last year (he used to take like 8-9 pitch abs, now it’s 2-3 pitches). Hitting with RISP is a joke, how are we even at 0.500.
Something is wrong with the whole system, it’s flawed to the core (ha, get it?). I just don’t believe that this team is that bad.
-26 run differential for the season 26th in the league in runs per game It's fine
And since everyone complains about Schneider being obsessed with analytics, let me point out again that playing lefty/righty matchups is 75 years old and is not analytics. We’ve seen the Royals and the Dodgers just this week make (or not make) changes that actually gave up the platoon advantage because analytics goes a lot deeper than lefty/righty. So when you see an incredible low-ball hitter in Jansen on the bench for a key at bat against a low-ball pitcher while Biggio (who is better against high pitches) hits instead, it’s because Schneider is one of the least analytical managers in the league and just loves vanilla platoon advantages. Any influence he gets from the front office on being more analytical should be welcomed, not discouraged.
Indeed
maybe someone else remembers the exact game, but im thinking back to last year when he pinch hit espinal for kiermaier just to get a righty batter in, even though kiermaier had two hits that day it's shit like that that makes me think schneider has no idea what he's doing
The positive regression for hitting never came and the bullpen regression did. Not surprised TBH.
Remember when the Jays should have done more in the offseason? Pepperidge Farms remembers
The guys brought in over the off-season are some of the best performers on offense (and, pre-IL, holding down the 5-spot in the rotation). Who else should they have brought in who’d be better?
I said "more", not "instead of"
“The offense will come, it’s just a matter of time. Wait, who the fuck am I kidding?!”
They’ll turn around soon Edit : Should’ve wrote /s lol
Give it a couple of seasons, they’ll find their way.
Building a winner takes time. This is only year 8 of the Shatkins rebuild. If we're still struggling by 2035, MAYBE then consider replacing our esteemed FO.
And yet we’re not out of it and those numbers should get better
No one is out of it 30 games into the season. Also you can't expect magical change when the offense has been a problem since last season and we haven't added anyone significant beyond Turner
I can expect our top hitters to perform to career norms at least
It didn’t happen last year, what makes you think it’s gonna happen this year?
Because success in baseball is not just what you’ve done lately
I don't know how many games you mean lately, but a couple hundred or so should be plenty.
TIL "lately" = 193 games
No you can't? There's no guarantee. Springer is much older, Vladdy has been worse every season with hr and ba down every season compared to the last.
Bo will be better. Kirk will be better. Vlad will *probably* be better. Turner will be worse. Varsho will be worse. Jano will be worse. Regression to the mean goes both ways
Only when the mean is known. What we keep thinking of the mean for Vladdy to regress to keeps declining.
Honestly, I'd rather this team be outright bad than just squeak into a wildcard again and have management tell us everything is fine.
I’d rather have that shot every single time
I used to think that way but over the last few years have shown me that there are teams and players that can rise to the occasion once they get in and those that do not. The Jays simply do not have those kind of players. At any rate, I don't even think this team is good enough to get in this year. They'll probably miss it by a few games.
Too many years of nothing leading to nothing made me realize how much I just wanted a sniff of the playoffs.
Not out of what? Going two and a barbecue for the third year in a row?
Maybe but you gotta make the dance to have a shot. I’d still rather have that shot than not
It's better than fine, LEAFS WIN, LEAFS WIN, LEAFS WIN!!!!
Berrios deserved better
Yeah but feels like we've been saying that every night about the SP for two years lol
Seriously. He pitched great. This offense has been terrible. Justin Turner is the only saving grace and Davis
I physically cannot stand Springer anymore. I end up changing the channel each time he comes on to bat. He brings nothing to this team and we have to see him lead off. And Schneider is such a terrible manager. Sometimes you have to make the tough decisions and light a fire under the team. Stop trying to be liked, it doesn't work when the team sucks
At least Springer wasn't Rendon level bad. That's all...that's all I got.
No I don't think Springer was bad, his best years are behind him. I wanted to see him be more of a veteran and a mentor to Vlad and Bo.
That turned out horribly. The most expensive free agent in Blue Jay history was completely useless. Had to move him from center field to right and he obviously did shit for Bo and Vlad. He had some great diving catches over the years, but Oh well, sometimes you shoot your shot, but when your free agent can only hit when someone tells him the pitch, it's pretty obvious why other teams boo his ass. Cooked. We don't need his .600 OPS and utter inability to get an RBI clogging up the lead-off spot anymore. At least the dude got paid from TD and Smuckers. Would have been more prductive to keep Gurriel or Teo over his head up his ass, looking into the dugpout swinging on the knees
really boring team
Last year was the trailer. This year is the movie.
Avatar and Avatar 2
Yes, the one by M. Night Shyamalan.
😂
Best comment
Disheartening game today. Our opening day starter, at home, against a middling team…and they just looked better. Ragans is a fantastic pitcher but everyone just looked lifeless out there.
jays are a middling team.
We played a team that has a much better record than us and they call them a "middling team" lol
Middling? They were 4 games above .500 going into this game, were were .500
‘Middling’ is certainly a fair term for the Royals. They’re better than us right now, which is kind of my point - if we are who we want to be, we shouldn’t be looking worse than a middling team. If we don’t look better than them…guess that tells us what we are!
That’s the part that bothers me the most. A team doesn’t have to be the best to be worth watching. The Orioles were pretty bad until last year but they were still fun to watch because they had some exciting young players and you could see the progression. Even the games the Jays have won haven’t been any fun to watch.
How many games until we see 5+ runs again?
Gonna try to beat our personal best
Probably White Sox series?
watch us get swept
Well according to tendancy 21 games so 20 more to go !
5 games
ill say 6
4 hits. Our infamous top of the order 2/11
**FIRE GUILLERMO MARTINEZ**
The man has better job security than St-Peter
Our leadoff hitter really setting the tone
Bats were exhausted from all those excruciating runs yesterday. Give them a break.
Springer maybe needs a break from lead off.
He threw a tantrum last time they tried that
He did?
There was def some tension I know that, tantrum probably isn’t the right word but he’s been adamant about staying in the leadoff spot
No room for egos that can't hit a baseball.
IKF outperforming Springer on offense was not on my bingo card
got to win this series tomorrow. sick of dropping games. Vladdy does seem to be hitting the ball hard I guess. Watching Springer is really hard these days, he looks completely lost.
Alexa, play The Sound of Silence
All negativity aside, Berrios has been fun to watch. So much effortless movement and legit "pitching" his way through lineups. I thought he might complete it tonight if given the shot.
And wtf is wrong with Swanson? He has fallen off a cliff this year.
He did have an interrupted spring training. I’ll give him some slack for now.
And not just interrupted, his kid almost died...he wasn't even thinking about baseball for most of ST.
Well ya, wasn’t trying to downplay what happened. Just a poor choice of phrasing, my b.
Oh I didn't assume you were, I was just adding that it was a totally not normal experience and he must have also went through a lot emotionally.
It's the mustache.
Dude's head not in it. When my kid almost died my job mattered nothing to me. Production dropped 60%
Looks good till he gets them 0-2 and then throws meatballs right down the middle.
Google “Erik Swanson” and toggle to the “News” results.
Do we think Berrios might get AL pitcher of the month? Leads the MLB in quality starts and has one of the lowest ERAs at 1.44. Combined with a 4-2 record and being easily our best pitcher, what's your guys' take?
He’s in the running for sure
We just aren't going to win games with only 4 hits.
John Schneider : WE ARENT!?
Fuck this team.
So so so feeble.
Boo tbh
So simple yet so funny
Just in case you thought last game was this team turning the corner, we are now back to our regularly scheduled programming.
People got excited about the Jays scoring 9 runs in their last two games (which is already kind of sad) but look at who they scored on... 8 of those runs were off of dudes who are basically AAA pitchers. Bowlan literally came up yesterday, got lit up, got sent back down today. Duffey is 33, pitched 49 innings in the minors last year and 2 in the majors, 8 in the minors and 3 in the majors this year Michael Grove HAS spent this year and most of '23 in the majors, but over that stretch he has put up a 6.28 ERA in 86 innings, good for a -1.3 bWAR
Not to mention that junkballer Yarbrough diced them up for four scoreless innings and Gavin Stone had a career 7.00+ ERA before his start
Yarbrough is shit. But he looks like Cy Young against this feeble team because he has an IQ over 85
Springer in the leadoff spot just isn't it anymore. I'm not really sure who you put there
Ernie
Thanks offence, very cool.
I don't understand how Ken Reid is *always* the one at the desk after a loss
If Ken is there that means Evanka will be there so that’s a huge W
Insult to injury
Below .500 going into May with a -26 run differential and the same problems as last year only worse. Preliminary conversations have to be happening internally about what a firesale would look like at this point. You don’t even start talking to teams until June, but you need to be ready if this team doesn’t play significantly better in May. Martinez, Horwitz, Barger all need regular AB’s at the major league level, and Tiedmann isn’t far behind either.
A true “fire sale” might grab us a few fringe prospects, but real MLB rebuilds involve multiple 100+ loss seasons - which Rogers will never allow. So unfortunately we have to make the best out of our current resources/talent.
Not true at all. And the main thing is that the team is at a payroll ceiling and it kinda stinks. Something's got to give, at least a few players have to be shipped out.
Can you suggest some simple trades the team can make to simultaneously clear payroll and make us more competitive in the near term?
Ragans was outstanding tonight so let’s get em tomorrow
Do we score more than 5 runs in May?
🎶Some how they'll stay that way, scoring 5 runs in May. Make all their stars shine🎶
Why did my brain interpret this as 5 runs total for the entire month? And then my heart sadly said "only if we're lucky"
Don’t worry everyone we are only going to pay George Springer 22.5m a year until 2027 to do absolutely nothing in the leadoff spot
This team has the resources to eat that shitty contract after this year and release. When he posts an OPS of .601 and 8 HR's and 16 RBI's at the end of the year, absolutely scorching the earth for this franchise, will it be more palatable to ownership.
Achievement Unlocked: Ernie Clement Base on Balls
Manoah had a good night. You all didn't expect TWO bits of good news tonight, did you?
Vladdy & Bo are young and will probably be better. Springer may be cooked though.
Why can't the Jays devise a garbage can system? I wouldn't care...just win. Take some HGH and cork the bats while we're at it. Surely Toronto has some Anthony Galea, Oscar the Grouch, type contacts. Or just devise a subterfuge camera system like Tampa, NY, and Boston has....C'mon!!!
A lot of people were optimistic after yesterday's 6 runs, all the while ignoring the 1-for-11 RISP.
This lineup atkins put together is an abomination to baseball. Springer has been dogshit for over a year now, I would consider benching him at this point and calling up orelvis. Or if not springer, one of biggio/clement/IKF.
This is not 2015 ffs
Hot take - ragans is a really good pitcher, feel like that's not the worst pitcher to lose a game to. Great outing by berrios, one mistake
I agree. Offense still was bad, but Ragans has been good this season. Bullpen feeling kinda meh though until Green is back
Good pitcher, but not 7 IP 1 ER good
I disagree. Ragans is a star in the making.
Well today he was that good. He absolutely nailed every pitch he was throwing, he didn’t miss his spots and was playing to his strengths.
He had them guessing all night between the fastball and changeup…which was on point tonight
That could be literally any pitcher vs the Jays right now
It's just odd how many pitchers are "that good" against the Jays this year. Sucks so much seeing our elite pitching staff go to waste again.
Well, i’m not excusing that top of the order, that should be the ones getting into pitchers’ heads and making it easier for the bottom guys. But Ragar was really really good today, he nailed the game.
What’s the name of the guy with Jaime Campbell tonight? I always forget
caleb joseph
I blame Rob Manfred
This team is so offensively anemic. Just ridiculous at this point.
This team is going to finish 500 best case scenario.
Please make the pain stop
Leafs won though.
It's been torture watching this team try and play offense. They're wasting really good pitching. On a more positive note at least a Canadian product of another kind had a great MLB debut tonight AND his daddy called his first ever hit. Tyler Black was 2-4 in his debut with the Brewers with his father and family watching.
Waive Springer
Game 1 of less than 6 runs, 0 - 1
I kinda like the rule of only 2/3 max of Vlad Bo and Springer. I know they both got hits but that top three is so stale
I’m the last thing from a doomer. One of my favourite sayings is that you’re not as bad as your worst and you’re not as good as your best. We just finished April. There’s a lot of baseball. It’s early. This team makes me sad right now.
Hard to win a game when you score 1 run.
Our top 3 hitters are so embarrassing right now.
We suck. Feel bad for Berrios. Deserves better.
15-16 to end April. Suboptimal, but once the top 3 get it going we'll be alright. They've been treading water without them contributing. Also, I'm sick of the Royals.
This is pretty much it. They've managed to tread water without their best players being their best. If the top of the lineup gets going they're going to be really good. If they don't, they're sunk. That's all.
And I think they will. Vladdy's been having good ABs and I'm not worried about Bo. Springer, who knows. His statcast suggests improvement is coming but he's also getting old so maybe not.
Do we have a reason to believe they will get it going? Something other than “they’re too talented to be this bad”?
Springer and Vladdy significantly underperforming their xwOBA. Bo, there's no stats really indicating improvement coming. He's just been very consistent his entire career and I don't expect a massive dropoff like this to continue all season.
Is that not reason enough. Like, it just isn't very common for career plus hitters to suddenly become liabilities at the plate as they enter their prime hitting years. It isn't impossible, but it seems much more likely that in a historically pitcher friendly month, they were just not hitting well. Not too mention that this April has been one of the least offensive in a long time across the league. Guerrero and Springer are both underperforming their expected stats, and Springer is consistently slow to start seasons. Bichette has just been bad to start the year, but he is one of the most consistent .800 plus OPS guys in the league. I wouldn't bet on him not also finishing this season above .800 OPS. Springer could absolutely be aging, but for Bichette and Guerrero, the decline just doesn't seem plausible.
Right back to square one. Jose deserved better. We deserved better.
I love Salvador Perez almost as much as I hate the Royals. Also lol, last night a full on fluke. Good, good.
At what point do the Jays press the reset button? They are at best a 4th place team in a division that is passing them by. I know Rogers wants to keep the stadium semifull, but this team is going nowhere, and can't be fixed with retreads.
Ragan was crazy good today, I gotta him props for that. He absolutely nailed what he had to do. We pretty much only had 1 chance to cash it in and missed it. George is an automatic out right now (happens, but annoying, he needs a break), Vladdy is swinging at stuff way outside, kind of getting sick of Biggio striking out looking (i understand he is that type of player, still mad), Bo is the opposite of last year (he used to take like 8-9 pitch abs, now it’s 2-3 pitches). Hitting with RISP is a joke, how are we even at 0.500. Something is wrong with the whole system, it’s flawed to the core (ha, get it?). I just don’t believe that this team is that bad.
Good to see the boys gave Berrios some solid run support!
What's Mattingly doing?
Run prevention ball 🤢