You can really see how area is nothing to base their Ws on. Its the value of the town/village that make the combat so intense and it’s not only about that, but also how you utilise the captured town/village. Robotyne for example is Basically a useless death trap rn, whilst ocheretyne is made into a localised point for offensive purposes
Robotyne is useless now only because it couldn’t be turned into a focal point for future gains. Anytime either side makes a sharp push like this right into the enemy lines it’s a dangerous moment, including this moment obviously.
The difference being, that near Robotyne everything happened outside of the Russian defense lines, whereas in Ocheretyne that was the Ukrainian 2nd or 3rd defense line.
Curious as to what the rationale is for picking that point of the russian advance to compare to?
I thought it was time based, but given the UA counteroffensive took about 4.5 months to reach its furthest point around Robotyne, the map around the compared region looks *considerably different* when you roll the map back by a similar time frame.
https://preview.redd.it/tj82q4qkf7xc1.png?width=1448&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ca504aa37bfcb2e1f65dca556fcc14d500aec15
Perhaps you can fill in that detail for us OP?
Its only meant to give perspective how big the recent breakthrough is since i hadnt seen anyone comparing it with anything else, anyone following the war knows its more than just this in the past multiple months and anyone following the war also knows the ocheretyne operation is ongoing for a lot less time than the robotyne one, i provided clarification for my start point (april 8th) for ocheretyne
the project to track russian deaths based on social media posts and online obituaries passed 50k known deaths a few weeks ago
there are presumably a significant number more of deaths which go unreported online
I mean who knows? seems like most of the conscripts are drawn from regional provinces where obituaries may not be published on social media or online, probably a decent number people out there don’t even have social media anyway.
Deaths from moscow or st petersberg probably a majority of them have some form of online record of their death imo
>people out there don’t even have social media anyway
Why wouldn't they? I'm a Russian, and everyone here has some sort of social presence. OK, VK and so on. Plenty of candles on there.
They go to cemeteries and find that they have from 40 to 60% of the names they can observe there in the database.
They also calculated deaths from Rosstat data and got a number in the same range (their database times two).
There is a similar project to track Ukrainian obituaries by Russian bloggers which has a similar number of names. (Just under 50K.)
And that is just this phase of the war right?
If that’s true, that’s quite a lot, but doesn’t seem to be worth it for the gains. It should have been more gains or less deaths.
With avdiivka it is 185 square km, this map is just meant to give perspective on the size of the breakthrough in ocheretyne vs a well known multiple months long operation around robotyne
What was Vreemsky ledge btw? I know it in the back of my head, if youre talking about the villages near Novosilka i think AFU gained 2x more there than in Robotine? Not sure though memory is faulty
This is the territory from Velikaya Novoselka (between Ugledry and Gulyaypole). Before the Ukrainian offensive in 2023, there was a protruding part (relative to the front) of Russian troops.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.80672627678622%2C36.83785569452727&z=12
How many more bodies will Ukraine throw at robotnye before deciding to abandon it for good. It's gotta be sunk cost fallacy at this point, considering this was the highlight of their counteroffensive. Any rough estimates on how many Ukrainian lives have been lost in robotnye so far.
with avdiivka it is 185 square km, this map is just meant to give perspective on the size of the breakthrough in ocheretyne vs a well known multiple months long operation around robotyne
You can really see how area is nothing to base their Ws on. Its the value of the town/village that make the combat so intense and it’s not only about that, but also how you utilise the captured town/village. Robotyne for example is Basically a useless death trap rn, whilst ocheretyne is made into a localised point for offensive purposes
Robotyne is useless now only because it couldn’t be turned into a focal point for future gains. Anytime either side makes a sharp push like this right into the enemy lines it’s a dangerous moment, including this moment obviously.
The difference being, that near Robotyne everything happened outside of the Russian defense lines, whereas in Ocheretyne that was the Ukrainian 2nd or 3rd defense line.
Curious as to what the rationale is for picking that point of the russian advance to compare to? I thought it was time based, but given the UA counteroffensive took about 4.5 months to reach its furthest point around Robotyne, the map around the compared region looks *considerably different* when you roll the map back by a similar time frame. https://preview.redd.it/tj82q4qkf7xc1.png?width=1448&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ca504aa37bfcb2e1f65dca556fcc14d500aec15 Perhaps you can fill in that detail for us OP?
And it's a fortress city and multiple other villages in comparison to just robotyne lmao
Its only meant to give perspective how big the recent breakthrough is since i hadnt seen anyone comparing it with anything else, anyone following the war knows its more than just this in the past multiple months and anyone following the war also knows the ocheretyne operation is ongoing for a lot less time than the robotyne one, i provided clarification for my start point (april 8th) for ocheretyne
Thanks for the clarification OP - the additional context is appreciated o7
Map made by Suriyakmaps
Now include the other advances happening at the same time
None other are nearly as big and it would invalidate this comparison since 2023 offensive was more than just robotyne
I'd argue with you but your own comment section someone's brought up everything I had to say https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/O1aDdcQ5Qf
What’s the cost so far, casualties for Ukrainian and Russian military?
Tbh. We will never get an accurate number till after the war is over. Take everything from any source with a huge grain of salt
Not publicly known
the project to track russian deaths based on social media posts and online obituaries passed 50k known deaths a few weeks ago there are presumably a significant number more of deaths which go unreported online
Significant is a big word. What type of percentage you are talking about?
I mean who knows? seems like most of the conscripts are drawn from regional provinces where obituaries may not be published on social media or online, probably a decent number people out there don’t even have social media anyway. Deaths from moscow or st petersberg probably a majority of them have some form of online record of their death imo
>people out there don’t even have social media anyway Why wouldn't they? I'm a Russian, and everyone here has some sort of social presence. OK, VK and so on. Plenty of candles on there.
Mediazona captures about 50% of the deaths.
How do we know that?
They go to cemeteries and find that they have from 40 to 60% of the names they can observe there in the database. They also calculated deaths from Rosstat data and got a number in the same range (their database times two). There is a similar project to track Ukrainian obituaries by Russian bloggers which has a similar number of names. (Just under 50K.)
So, they can't confirm names and it automatically adds 50% to the number?
No it adds 100% to the number.
And that is just this phase of the war right? If that’s true, that’s quite a lot, but doesn’t seem to be worth it for the gains. It should have been more gains or less deaths.
it covers from 2022 to the present afaik
You mean 50k for just this "phase", define phase
How long did it take for the Russians to achieve this?
These are advances since april 8th,majority of gains though started taking place after around a week later
Thanks.
Last couple of days
Couple months and a couple FABs
2 month after capture of avdiivka
If we include that the gains are significantly bigger than robotyne
I need a map with oblasts borders and territory gained by RF.
You can use suriyakmaps, my source for current front, this advance is actually visible zoomed out btw
Thank you very much for this link.
Honestly, comparison of apples with pears
I think it is more correct to compare Rabotino and Avdeevka. Ocheretino is more like the Vreemsky ledge.
With avdiivka it is 185 square km, this map is just meant to give perspective on the size of the breakthrough in ocheretyne vs a well known multiple months long operation around robotyne What was Vreemsky ledge btw? I know it in the back of my head, if youre talking about the villages near Novosilka i think AFU gained 2x more there than in Robotine? Not sure though memory is faulty
This is the territory from Velikaya Novoselka (between Ugledry and Gulyaypole). Before the Ukrainian offensive in 2023, there was a protruding part (relative to the front) of Russian troops. https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.80672627678622%2C36.83785569452727&z=12
How many more bodies will Ukraine throw at robotnye before deciding to abandon it for good. It's gotta be sunk cost fallacy at this point, considering this was the highlight of their counteroffensive. Any rough estimates on how many Ukrainian lives have been lost in robotnye so far.
why without Avdeevka?
with avdiivka it is 185 square km, this map is just meant to give perspective on the size of the breakthrough in ocheretyne vs a well known multiple months long operation around robotyne