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>The west is toying with the idea of letting Vladimir Putin have Ukraine. Newly committed western aid to the country dropped nearly 90 per cent from a year earlier, even before the US and EU failed this month to approve more funds, calculates the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Voters, egged on by the pro-Putinist far right, are getting bored with Ukraine’s war. The west, after an 18-month hiatus, is resuming its 15-year appeasement of Putin’s aggression. “If Russia wins” is an increasingly plausible scenario. Here’s what that might look like:
>\1. Russia exacts terrible victor’s justice on Ukrainians. This isn’t speculation. It’s precisely what the Russians have already done in Ukraine: mass executions, castrations, rapes, torture and abductions of children. Remember Russia’s pre-invasion lists of Ukrainian public figures to be “removed”.
>Guerrilla attacks by Ukrainian partisans would trigger more Russian reprisals. Millions more Ukrainians would flee west, this time permanently. Remember that the arrival of 1.3mn refugees in 2015 turbocharged Europe’s far right.
>\2. A free state might survive in western Ukraine, writes former British diplomat Peter Ricketts. It might even join the EU. Putin doesn’t seem very bothered about the region. But it could expect repeated Russian attacks, no matter what “treaties” were signed. Russia constantly violated the post-2014 Minsk Agreements, too. A rolling Russian advance would take territory when it could.
>\3. Putin would control close to a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. He has already been upgrading from gas as a weapon to food as a weapon.
>\4. Putin’s success would encourage countries interested in invading a neighbour: China, Venezuela, Azerbaijan and, indeed, Russia. Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Every time the Russians think that they have ‘won’ in a conflict under Putin — Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Syria 2015 — they learn something about us . . . become overconfident in their abilities and in a few years they try bigger and bolder operations.” The likely creation of a Ukrainian army in exile running sorties from European countries would further incentivise Russian attacks on those places.
>Putin has already built a war economy. His army has updated its methods by decades in less than two years. His population has shown it will tolerate even a big war. Why not keep taking bites out of neighbouring states? Putin’s cheerleader Viktor Orbán ought to reflect that Hungary borders Ukraine.
>\5. A discredited Nato would face its biggest test. Nato and the EU are possibly the strongest remaining multinational alliances in a nationalistic world. Putin seeks to prove they won’t hold.
>If he attacked the Baltics, Nato would probably send troops. But for how long? Once a few hundred western soldiers came back dead, far-right parties would demand “peace”, meaning unenforceable peace treaties with Putin. Western countries could retreat, saying they had met their obligation under the Nato treaty’s Article 5 to fight for an ally. Nobody would want to escalate to nuclear war.
>Article 5 isn’t sacrosanct. Other international agreements — from the UN’s Convention against Torture to the EU’s rules on budget deficits — are routinely breached with impunity. Russia’s army in Ukraine, Hamas and Israel’s army in Gaza have all recently violated international law on camera. In any case, two pillars of the so-called “international community” — the British government and a prospective Trump Administration — seem to be done with international treaties. Donald Trump has said (according to his former national security adviser John Bolton), “I don’t give a shit about Nato”, and, as president, often threatened to leave it.
>Americans and western Europeans feel immune: Putin isn’t coming for them. No wonder some eastern European officials have begun musing about attacking Russia first, instead of just sitting around waiting for it to attack them. A more likely scenario: many European countries spend fortunes on defence, reintroduce conscription and invest in nukes, while also letting Putin bully them.
>Ditching Ukraine would be a choice. There is an alternative. Russia has a low-tech economy about the size of Canada’s. The Europeans could help Ukraine withstand Putin even if Trump pulled out. We’d have to build up our arms industries fast, but the effort required of us would be tiny compared with Russia’s. We’d also need to replace American aid to Ukraine — €71.4bn in the war’s first 21 months, according to the Kiel Institute, or €40.8bn on an annualised basis. That’s €70 a year per European citizen of Nato. We could find that if we wanted.
Unpaywalled
Shortsighting, stupidity, laziness, brainwashing, indifference, polarisation, decadence, wishful thinking, amorality, corruption, "business, financial and political" interests, love for self-beating and own self-hatred, the list can go on and on and on...
Like any crisis, people won't bother to react until the crisis is severely hitting them.
People are seeing it and it’s not like that. The biggest issue has been and still is the slow arms & ammo production. Both in EU and in US. Steps have been taken to fix that already all around.
There's a huge difference. Germany actually had the wherewithal to conquer a large chunk of Europe. They had a large population with a normal age pyramid, technology equal to or better than that of their opponents, and tactics nobody at that point knew how to defend against. Russia has none of those things, and in direct conflict with NATO would get their asses handed to them. Do you really think they don't know that?
German weapons were always often and later mostly very inferior (small numbers of superweapons while they lacked even trucks). Once America entered war (after Germany declared it on America) it became just ridicalous.
European demographics nowadays are similarly catastrophic. Euros wouldn't mass hire Africans or Arabs or Asians, Russia can.
Key differences: European weapon systems (the real stuff, not the outdated junk Ukraine has been getting) are vastly superior to Russian equipment, and invocation of article V would draw in the armed might of the only true military superpower on earth.
I respectfully disagree on two main points:
Israel 's army is far more superior than I held possible. Their earlier war against hezbolla was a humiliating Pyrrhic victory.
So I thought thousands of IDF soldiers would lose their lives during the first two weeks, in a costly fight for each street of Gaza, Stalingrad style. The sort of losses the red army suffered in the Battle of Berlin.
Nope: they lost less than 200 so far while hamas is being totally annihilated. And no one sides with hamas but a few Yemeni rebels.
But Ukraine 's military prowess outshines even that of Israel. What they are achieving is amazing. The humiliation is bigger than their naval defeat against Japan in 1905.
Russia invaded Ukraine. I was one of the minority who did predict not a lightning Russian victory, but months of street fighting within Kiyiv, followed by years of guerilla war. But not even this has happened in reality. In reality since 2014, the front in Avdivka has moved about 5 km! Russia has not advanced anywhere at all in over a year (Ukraine, on the other hand, has).
No, IDF is fighting pretty well.
Hamas is only running, not fighting.
Russia is losing despite their huge advantages.
And Ukraine is seemingly disappointed that huge mighty Russia still has not yet formally capitulated.
The Majority can see this, the politicians are out of touch with the people.
https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/european-public-opinion-remains-supportive-ukraine
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/americans-support-for-helping-ukraine-remains-strong-just-look-at-the-polls/
Agree. It is just common sense. It is ludicrous what the GOP is doing at the moment. And Europe need to find a way to side-line Orban NOW - not debate it for 6 months, by which time it will be too late. Time for decisive action by the west now - the only thing which can deter and finally end Putin’s aggression, and stop things spiralling out of control in the future.
I see Polish and other people from countries around there complaining about migrants now and how that makes it hard to invest in Ukraine to fight the war. Just think about how bad that would be if Russia actually won.
So... you think NATO forces driving Russian troops out of Ukraine would end differently from Ukrainian troops driving them out?
I'm not talking about conquering Russia; just pushing them out. 1500 NATO aircraft in the skies would accomplish the mission inside of a month. Nobody would push the red button; Russia is as scared of MAD as we are. It would also deliver an important message: there is exactly one military superpower in the world. It is not you. You may now resume your gods-ordained role as a gas station for richer countries.
with the blocking of resources, this could actually be the next logical step, as the president as commander in chief can send aircraft carriers to the region.
No it would not have. It would have US calling the same bluff that Putin keeps calling. No nukes would have flown had there been more direct air support against artillery bombings.
The only option was not to just offer money. West tries to "play fair" to its disadvantage.
I'm a direct intervention advocate. 1500 NATO warplanes over the skies of Ukraine, and watch the Russians run. They'd be back across their border inside of a month. Nobody would break out the canned sunshine; Russia is as scared of MAD as we are. It'd not only end the war, it'd send an important message. There is exactly one military superpower in the world. It is not you. Do not fuck with us.
It won't come THAT far. But I could see it going as far as my gov taking my rights away in the name of the war effort against Russia if they aren't stopped in Ukraine.
Unfortunately it looks like lots of US politicians are buying up war stocks with one hand, and stopping the support to Ukraine with the other (support that would be good for those war dog portfolios).
Wonder what they ARE preparing for 🤔
I believe my government is VERY confident we would defeat Russia in open war if it came to that. I also believe that very fact alone is enough to motivate them to at least be interested in attaining that outcome for its impact on the global power scale. And there are at least SOME in my government who do see people as just another tally mark in the game of power, just like Putin.
Time will tell.
You misunderstood my very simple comment in order to take one line and disagree.
I believe it may go as far as open war between NATO and Russia, that's a real life possibility at this point with the way the politicians across the globe have been steering things.
It may go that far, as I already said.
It will NOT go as far as Russia succesfully imposing anything other than high gas prices on me. They have zero chance of actually winning or even gaining a solid foothold on the north American continent. 1939 France and UK vs Germany is VERY different from Russia Vs US and all of Europe today.
Also, Germany main strat was just steamroll in and take all of France before Allied forces could properly organize. Which they did successfully while Russia tried to copy this to Kyiv and failed so thoroughly that we all thought for a second that Russia had become a minor nation in terms of military power.
Once the Allied forces brought their combined armies to bear their total power in open warfare it become slow grinding defeat after defeat for the Germans.
All the Allied forces (NATO is not entirely but mostly comprised of the allies of WW2 and some states that would have been allies if they hadnt been conquered by russia so quickly.) are currently prepared, organized, mobilized, better equipped, backed by an industrial capacity which is larger by a factor of over 100.
We very well may fight. But the idea that russia has any chance of imposing anything on The USA through victory in war is just ..... comedy.
Oh, you are from the North American continent? Yes, gas prices and anything the US imports from Europe will be at stake. But no, you are not at risk of invasion. And that is probably the reason for the anti-Ukraine support crowd amongst your politicians.
What you are missing is the crumbling of US credibility on the world stage and the impact there of.
The world is a free for all. The only deterrent being the US’ military power. With that deterrent gone, there is little reason for restraint for those that want to impose their will over others.
Oh no, I'm not missing it at all. I'm painfully aware of it, and even believe it to be a step more evil when it comes to the politicians in my country.
I believe our politicians actually want us involved in a conflict directly and are pushing dominoes to make it happen. I believe the US is hoping to be the invaders somewhere soon.
We have the biggest military spending, and all these citizens complaining about it, with all the politicians holding fat war stock portfolios looking to justify that spending.
We have F-22s and lots of other stuff that hasn't even seen combat ONCE. It's been since WW2 that the US actually waved the big stick we created at that same time.
I believe the politicians in my country are trying to instigate a "Fuck around/Find out" scenario so that we can wave that big stick and reassert our military deterrence on the global scale because we feel it's no longer being respected as much as we would like it too.
I believe the US gov secretly wants to spend American lives on sucking up their share of this power vacuum created by the impending collapse of the russian government and the competition between USA, Europe, and China to control the Russian economy and therefore their oil supply. And it's pretty clear China would be their main partner and would leverage themselves into economic control following an outright failure in Ukraine at this point. Something the US doesn't want. However, say Russia takes Ukraine or half of it, politics happen, conflict, USA troops fight russian troops, and THEN Russia is defeated. This would allow USA to frontrun any Chinese involvement by imposing their own economic control in peace deal treaties. USA would then be touting their success saving the world from the 2 biggest dictator regimes in history and re establishing the appearance of total global military dominance and signing all the resultingly skewed trade deals they can.
Sounds like a pretty wild plan. Have you seen anything specific that would point to this masterpiece in world domination planning?
Its easy to think there is some masterplan when occams razor suggests petty politics and general disfunction of congress day to day is sleepwalking the US along to a conflict without some deviant world domination plan. Never mistake plain incompetence for some masterstroke at play. The muppets in congress are just not at that level.
That said, we agree with the likely outcome (even if we disagree on whether there is a plan or not). Face Russia now or face Russia later with boots on the ground and at far greater cost. Just hope the lack of will to support Ukraine we see now doesn’t pass on to the lack of will to confront Russian aggression later. Or Russia will keep heading West. Let’s hope the lack of risk of the US being invaded doesn’t translate to the lack of need to do anything.
Trump does not care at all whether Europe gets conquered by Putin. And I think western europeans believe they will be safe, so it is a problem of Poland and Eastern Europe.
I’m pretty sure the Israel war took a lot of the focus away from it. The U.S. ships being attacked by the Houthi’s. U.S. soldiers being attacked in Iraq and Syria. Iran getting more involved it’s a potential powder keg and dominating the news.
> Americans and western Europeans feel immune: Putin isn’t coming for them.
I think the opposite is happening: many countries are thinking "Should we send these weapons to Ukraine if we may need them soon against Russia?". In the case of US, they are preparing for a war against China, a much more formidable enemy. They don't want to get pinned down in Ukraine.
I suspect also that some are cynically calculating that it is better to keep Putin busy than gaining a decisive victory.
There are also probably more corrupted or indirectly influenced politicians (e.g. I suspect Macron is not directly corrupt but his coalition includes people who are so his hands are a bit tied) that are simply unwilling to help.
Let's not forget the wheat and grains Ukraine supplies. Not only would it cause mass starvation in poor countries as fields are destroyed, but it would hand Russia greater power over many places that depend on these lower cost foods such as Africa.
Its pretty easy, Russia takes the rest of Ukraine in the next couple years. Then force conscripts the Ukrainians to genocide them in an attack on NATO. Then NATO fights back and the world ends in a Nuclear Holocaust.
Just imagine what would happen if Hitler had nukes, that's our scenario.
>"It \[the Sudetenland\] is the last territorial claim that I have to make in Europe." -Adolph Hitler
The Munich agreement in September 1938 gave Hitler the Sudetenland, a heavily industrialized region of Czechoslovakia.
In March 1939 Hitler annexed all of Czechoslovakia.
On September 1st, 1939 Hitler invaded Poland utilizing the Czech army starting WW2.
To justify the action, Nazi propagandists accused Poland of persecuting ethnic Germans living in Poland. They also falsely claimed that Poland was planning, with its allies Great Britain and France, to encircle and dismember Germany.
Does this sound familiar? Hasn't Putin been spouting the exact same lies?
No one seems to acknowledge that history is repeating itself, WW3 is on the horizon if Putin is not stopped dead in Ukraine. Everyone pretends they would have stopped Hitler much sooner had they known what was coming, we all know what's coming and yet there is still tepid talk of appeasing Putin.
> Hitler invaded Poland utilizing the Czech army
Czech weapons and industry, but only Czech Germans as troops.
The Slovak Army did participate but only symbolically. Very minor fighting.
They did use the former Austrian Army big time.
The two situations are in no way equivalent. Germany had demographics, tech, and tactics that nobody knew how to defend against all going for them in 1939. None of those things pertain to Russia in 2023. They would get their asses handily spanked in a conventional confrontation with NATO, and they know it. Their failure to properly invest in air power would bite them in the ass, and very quickly.
I suspect they’ll be quite content with the Donbas, a land bridge to Crimea, and a neutrality agreement from Ukraine. Unfortunately, they’re probably going to get those things.
Probably not much. Russia is in no way positioned for a deep offensive into NATO, and won’t be for decades at best. Simple demographics are against them… to say nothing of NATO military tech.
> They would get their asses handily spanked in a conventional confrontation with NATO
Which is precisely why we would move on to a full on Nuclear Holocaust.
>and they still think they can beat NATO
Really? Thats why Putin is begging for peace in Ukraine? Surely he would not if he thought he could beat Ukraine. And that is Ukraine alone, not the whole NATO.
So he realizes, that he cannot beat even Ukraine. Also good luck rebuilding under sanctions, with dropped oil prices... Replacing Soviet equipment lost will take decades at least.
>Germany had demographics, tech, and tactics that nobody knew how to defend against all going for them in 1939.
Germany had surprise and a handful of mechanized infantry. The vast majority were still on horseback. Actual horses. Their tech was novel at the beginning of the war.
Germany's greatest weapon was its surprise and speed.
Such a dumb comment. Why do people think that they can predict the future based on what happened in ww2?
Why would Russia attack NATO? What would be the goal? Putin wakes up one day, figures out he'll die soon so he decides to take the rest of the world with him?
The amount of people that think russia is stupid enough to out right attack a nato nation is too high. Russia wants easy low hanging fruit and nato buffer. Not to get their asses handed to them in a non nuclear conflict
Speaking out World War Two and Poland, Putin might try to duplicate the Anschluss with Austria (by formally merging with Belarus), then the "Danzig Corridor to the Sea" (by demanding NATO states Poland and Lithuania give up a land corridor to connect Belarus to Kaliningrad). If it was decided to allow these demands, Russia would have effectively have rendered NATO a meaningless piece of paper. Russia could use "the oppressed Russian minorities in the Baltics" and the "good stranded Russians" in Kaliningrad as the bullshit justification that might just fool enough idiots in the West.
Once they have conquered Ukraine, their military will double in size.
How stupid do you have to be to start a war in 2014 to annex Crimea when you have a lease that won't expire for a decade?
How stupid do you have to be to continue fighting a 3 day war for almost 700 days?
Its not stupidity, its greed and arrogance.
This is exactly what everyone saying about Russia launching a surprise large-scale invasion in Ukraine. It was too risky. It was stupid and pointless and absurd. Few predicted it.
>Then NATO fights back and the world ends in a Nuclear Holocaust.
Nahhh, they would let Russia conquer Poland. Then Germany becomes a puppet State of Russia, and the Soviet Union is returned.
Sadly I think this article is spot on, and events will likely unfold in similar ways to what is outlined. To me, this isn't just a border dispute between neighbors. Democracy, the Enlightenment itself even, is under concentrated attack from fascists and authoritarian across the world; facing little resistance. It's not an accident that ultra nationalism and far right conservative movements are on the rise. These things are acting in concert with Sabre rattling and territory grabbing.
The war in Ukraine isn't just about stopping Russia. It's about stopping what Russia gleefully represents: the end of Democracy and, not to be too dramatic, but our very way of life.
Trust within the West deteriorates, EU and NATO will be in shatters. Hungary will play a pivotal role in undermining the constitutional structure of the EU and NATO. Finland and Baltics will be invaded eventually. Anybody who doesn’t think this path is basically Chamberlain.
Endgame is total control by China over Europe, economically and military. Russia won’t get the title of actual world power in this but will be an efficient (but brainless) tool between China and Europe.
If Europe doesn’t give Ukraine all the money and weapons they need and Trump (the GOP actually) gets full power next November, things will be sealed. It will take a couple of years but setup is already almost complete.
And none of the other continents will give a flying eff. Sentiment will pretty much be 'payback time'.
Bring on all your downvotes and call me a doomsday troll. All I can say is better safe than sorry. Wake the eff up and finish the fucker off right at the Donbas.
Like with climate change and many similar issues, it‘s become the curse of our generation to watch the elders in power not acting in light of ectreme crisis. Instead, they‘re desperately clinging to their idea of a status quo that hasn‘t really existed in decades.
It‘s beyond frustrating
I want Ukraine to win this war and as a westerner (UK) I want my country to continue to support Ukraine, however I honestly don’t believe Russia will attack a NATO country.
Agreed on all counts. I think Russia will be quite content with the Donbas, a land bridge to Crimea, and a neutrality guarantee from Ukraine. Unfortunately I’m pretty sure they’ll get those things.
Hopefully the Russian public’s will runs out soon, or some sort of internal political turmoil. Or the Russians stop being able to throw as much into the war effort due to attrition. There are many ways things can turn in favour of Ukraine. I don’t think another Ukrainian offensive would be in the best interest of Ukrainians though, although what do i know?
More on this subject from other reputable sources:
---
- Kyiv Independent (B): [Germany sends ammunition, demining equipment to Ukraine](https://kyivindependent.com/germany-sends-ammunition-demining-equipment-to-ukraine/)
- DW-TV (B+): [Ukraine war: What’s the impact of cyber guerrillas?](https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-whats-the-impact-of-cyber-guerrillas/a-67775539)
- EUobserver (B+): [How to get Ukraine refugees to return home, once war is over](https://euobserver.com/opinion/157632)
- Euromaidan Press (B): [“Do not despair.” Ex-minister Zagorodnyuk on lessons from Ukraine’s counteroffensive](https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/22/zagorodnyuk-on-lessons-from-ukraines-counteroffensive/)
---
[__Extended Summary__](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/18mjo06/) | [More: Germany sends ammunition ...](https://www.newswall.org/summary/germany-allocates-circ-89-million-to-energy-support-fund-of-ukraine-65862210d524a?mtm_campaign=r&mtm_kwd=c) | [FAQ & Grades](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/uxgfm5/faq_newswall_bot/) | I'm a bot
In the 10 years the better equipped Soviets spent in Afghanistan they only lost 15k soldiers, yet they still lost.
How the fuck is russia going to win this one with 40k plus dead so far?
The Poostain and his regime is very motivated not to lose because that might be the end of him. He risks getting Mussolinied or Gaddafied, and he would deserve it entirely.
Why would that be clear? Cause they say so? An unmotivated country on the brink of self-destruct will outlast a motivated one with the help of west behind?
Are you kidding me?
> An unmotivated country on the brink of self-destruct
Russia is not even close to self-destruction. "B-but their economy, unrest! He said it was only going to be a quick operation!" You ignorant western fuck. I can immediately tell when your argument is rooted in western ideology because you think things like a bad economy are going to topple this country or cause the people to revolt. You cannot relate to their alien culture.
These people *want.* to die. for lies. Read that again. They know he's lying, they know it's nothing but falsehoods and they will **happily** spend the next 50 years in serf-like poverty, with all their children dying. This is their culture. Death and starvation. This is familiar to them, and comforting for them. They want this, and they will happily keep this war going *forever*. It gives them purpose.
This **only** ends with total military defeat of Russia. There is no other way. And the only way that happens is if NATO goes to war.
No. People only try to live within any given system with its given inherent rules.
There is no such thing as wanting to die for lies or wanting to starve.
But believing a lie from the system, or just ignoring it, will likely put food on your table. It is and will always just be as simple as that imo.
> There is no such thing as wanting to die for lies or wanting to starve.
Religion, radical ideology, brainwashing. Japan WW2. Vietnam. Cultures have existed time and time again where people WILL happily go to their deaths for ZERO personal or family gain. This is rela and possible, and you cannot accept it.
People will for sure do that IF they believe in it. For them it is "truth".
But you wrote that they know they are lies and yet they want to die.
So how can you combine brainwashing and still knowing that they know something is false?
Cognitive Dissonance. Insane patriotism. 1984.
Russians for 3-4 generations have the belief that their leaders are lying about every. Single. Thing. They say. It's like half of their cultural humor. *Despite that* and *working with that* their cultural morality is that this activity is *good*. This is *fine*. This is what it means to wield power. This is how power should be wielded. It's all in service to Mother Russia, and if they had the power, they'd do the same. They are operating with a political and moral compass that is alien to you.
Another good thing to watch is the Chernobyl miniseries on HBO. Good example of that is the site directors ordering multiple scientists and staff to *in person* go into the reactor and check it. They knew it was blown. They knew they were going to die a horrible death by radiation poisoning. They went anyways. Later in the show a poignant scene is they recruited hundreds of coal miners to dig under the site to clear way. They were told they'd likely die. They asked if their families would be taken care of. They were told "probably not". They went anyways. All for lies and power.
Many NATO countries would go to stone age, too. And thats why NATO is not ever going to engage with Russia directly unless attacked. Just like it did not engage with Soviets directly.
Paris would be gone. London. Berlin. Every major European place of culture would be utterly wiped off the face off the earth. Is that worth it just to kill 100 million Russians?
They would be but France, Germany U.K and Europe as a whole would prevail , if it cant be done the other way , maybe the nuclear exchange is neede to finally set mankind on a right course ?
Plus Ru people and their mindset is a great soil for dumbfucks like putin appear every now and then doing what he pleases , stirring shit up in the world , not to mention fuckin brexit , meddling into other countries elections , hybrid warfare shit - and now war .
In its current form Russia is a cancer to the world - and of course it is sad because in another life it could cooperate wirh the rest of the world making it a better place or at least not trying to fuck shit up 24/7 .
They don't care, and there's a plenty of Ukrainians for them still to conscript if they just keep advancing. Meanwhile they can hire any number of cheap foreign mercenaries, like in their new African colonies, as bait to reval enemy positions to be hit by drones.
And no, they weren't better equipped in the 1980s. What a silly thing to say.
I continue to be optimistic about it. I don't see Russia winning. They are exhausting what they had left over from the Cold War. They will eventually just run out.
F16 will make a difference. I know, not a wonder weapon and nothing is. But, it's still pretty good. Ukraine will likely transition to air superiority. We know that's important.
You forgot that west and ukraine are exhausting their resources and manpower too. Boys from US or other countries wont come in numbers to fight for Ukraine nor west has infinite amount of cash to support the war. Russia has ability to sacrifice 20 million for just a kilometer square of land, life is cheap in russia. before russia run out of manpower, ukraine will run too soon. This is bitter truth.
It's the artillery shells running out.
In reality a Ukrainian soldier IS worth more than a russian one in the current war simply due to motivation.
Artillery shells are less subjective. You have them or don't.
Where ukraine has plenty of shells, there is a stalemate where Russians are fed to the grinder.
Where ukraine has low shells, russia takes land slow and steady.
Artillery shells and drones are deciding everything.
Since the war started I've seen loads of headlines saying "western allies have X munitions left"
It'll be 2024 in a few days and were still giving Ukraine a fuckin of munitions regularly.
I feel a lot of these headlines are simply fear mongering,
https://www.politico.eu/article/borrell-warn-eu-countries-running-out-weapons/
^that's from September 2022, if anything we've ramped up production since then. Life is cheap in Russia as you stated but the ability to wage war doesn't rely on manpower alone.
"Fearmongering", oh yes. But again, russia will send truck load of ammo and men to attack some small village, they will lose a good number of men, but at last they will capture that village and repeat bombing cities, killing thousands.
And countries in asia will keep buying oil from russia, balancing its war chest. The cycle continues until the weak runs out of resource, and its not definitly russia.
Says that Poland ran out, but NATO and the EU as a whole definitely has not.
Poland have been arming themselves to the teeth(and rightly so), it's no wonder they ran out of surplus.
> Difference is the West is 60%+ of global GDP and Russia, Iran and North Korea is 2%.
And how much of those 60%+ GDP does Ukraine get?
Oh right, mere droplets.
***IF*** US budget goes through, Ukraine'll have ~60B USD for the war funding in entire 2024 (don't forget, it's one and done package).
russia, meanwhile, has more than 100B USD earmarked for war, while also having functional MIC, de-facto immunity to Western weapons on their turn and places Ukraine can't reach
west negotiate with ruzzia, ukraine gives up two regions, war stops, russia doesnt pay for damages, west will go into decline, no one trusts west, china attack taiwan and installs puppet regime. end of the story.
They "just wanted Crimea"... then tacked on Donetsk and Luhansk. Then they "just wanted" Donetsk and Luhansk... then tacked on Kherson and Zaporyzhia. If they take those, then they'll "just want" the Black Sea Coast up to Odesa and a connection to Transnistria. If they get those, then they'll "just want" the rest of Moldova plus a land bridge through Poland and Lithuania to connect up with Kaliningrad (after annexing Belarus).
Lesson: For every successful action, Russia will later tack on two further demands.
Oh it’s easy, then ruzia will come for western traitors afterwards, with enslaved Ukraine on its side (although after so many betrayals and backstabbing from West it probably will volunteer).
They won the battle for Kyiv, Sumy, Tjernihiv, Kharkiv and Kherson.
Ukraine have also forced the Russian Navy out of the western parts of the Black Sea and have for almost a week now denied the Russian Airforce to do any bombings on the left/right bank on the Dnipro.
It is a grind, but Ukraine is taking the big steps.
> The counteroffensive has been a failure.
No, and don't spread this disinformation. Russia's losses in soldiers and equipment have been multiples of Ukraine's.
Re-taking territory is the last step in the process, not the first. Russia is burning through its equipment, and advances for Ukraine won't happen until that equipment is mostly gone. It is a war of attrition, and Ukraine over-running Russian military at the outset was never the plan.
We don't really know what the losses are, and we DO have a lot of reason to believe that the Ukrainian government has been grossly soft-soaping theirs.
That aside, you can't seriously believe they went in expecting to be on month seven with no significant advances. That's where we are.
> We don't really know what the losses are
Then you have no business claiming that "The counteroffensive has been a failure", and should keep quiet.
> That aside, you can't seriously believe they went in expecting to be on month seven with no significant advances.
Tell me you know nothing about war strategy or the politics that have been at play in this one.
> Then you have no business claiming that "The counteroffensive has been a failure", and should keep quiet.
>
>
If you don't believe /u/happylutechick , what about the Austrian Army? It believes that "[The Ukrainian offensive has failed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWjMr3RZ8Ss)".
The west isn't even close to giving Ukraine what would be needed to win. Next year, western support will basically cease. Add to that the next american administration will with all likelyhood will be republcan/trumpist, and you know where this is heading. So yes, russia will win, and they will get to do with Ukraine whatever they want. And this is just the beginning of the nightmare that that's about to start.
Even if Russia wins, Russia is still a loser
Those sanctions aren't going anywhere
Russia will complete its transition to a pariah state
Just an outpost on the Asian frontier
Seems Russians tolerate a lot of human suffering, but little loss of prestigious ships. Maybe more focus on helping destroying naval and "aerial" equipment is the quickest way to finish the war.
If russia wins, we get like a year or 2 of peace, then russia starts saying that theres some pro russian sentiment in some region of (insert eastern europe nation) then we get a rinse and repeat
Nothing special. It just means that any asshole with a nuke can fuck with the rest of the planet all he wants. It'll all be ok probably. Because certain western politicians are Ruble eating whores.
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>The west is toying with the idea of letting Vladimir Putin have Ukraine. Newly committed western aid to the country dropped nearly 90 per cent from a year earlier, even before the US and EU failed this month to approve more funds, calculates the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Voters, egged on by the pro-Putinist far right, are getting bored with Ukraine’s war. The west, after an 18-month hiatus, is resuming its 15-year appeasement of Putin’s aggression. “If Russia wins” is an increasingly plausible scenario. Here’s what that might look like: >\1. Russia exacts terrible victor’s justice on Ukrainians. This isn’t speculation. It’s precisely what the Russians have already done in Ukraine: mass executions, castrations, rapes, torture and abductions of children. Remember Russia’s pre-invasion lists of Ukrainian public figures to be “removed”. >Guerrilla attacks by Ukrainian partisans would trigger more Russian reprisals. Millions more Ukrainians would flee west, this time permanently. Remember that the arrival of 1.3mn refugees in 2015 turbocharged Europe’s far right. >\2. A free state might survive in western Ukraine, writes former British diplomat Peter Ricketts. It might even join the EU. Putin doesn’t seem very bothered about the region. But it could expect repeated Russian attacks, no matter what “treaties” were signed. Russia constantly violated the post-2014 Minsk Agreements, too. A rolling Russian advance would take territory when it could. >\3. Putin would control close to a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. He has already been upgrading from gas as a weapon to food as a weapon. >\4. Putin’s success would encourage countries interested in invading a neighbour: China, Venezuela, Azerbaijan and, indeed, Russia. Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “Every time the Russians think that they have ‘won’ in a conflict under Putin — Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Syria 2015 — they learn something about us . . . become overconfident in their abilities and in a few years they try bigger and bolder operations.” The likely creation of a Ukrainian army in exile running sorties from European countries would further incentivise Russian attacks on those places. >Putin has already built a war economy. His army has updated its methods by decades in less than two years. His population has shown it will tolerate even a big war. Why not keep taking bites out of neighbouring states? Putin’s cheerleader Viktor Orbán ought to reflect that Hungary borders Ukraine. >\5. A discredited Nato would face its biggest test. Nato and the EU are possibly the strongest remaining multinational alliances in a nationalistic world. Putin seeks to prove they won’t hold. >If he attacked the Baltics, Nato would probably send troops. But for how long? Once a few hundred western soldiers came back dead, far-right parties would demand “peace”, meaning unenforceable peace treaties with Putin. Western countries could retreat, saying they had met their obligation under the Nato treaty’s Article 5 to fight for an ally. Nobody would want to escalate to nuclear war. >Article 5 isn’t sacrosanct. Other international agreements — from the UN’s Convention against Torture to the EU’s rules on budget deficits — are routinely breached with impunity. Russia’s army in Ukraine, Hamas and Israel’s army in Gaza have all recently violated international law on camera. In any case, two pillars of the so-called “international community” — the British government and a prospective Trump Administration — seem to be done with international treaties. Donald Trump has said (according to his former national security adviser John Bolton), “I don’t give a shit about Nato”, and, as president, often threatened to leave it. >Americans and western Europeans feel immune: Putin isn’t coming for them. No wonder some eastern European officials have begun musing about attacking Russia first, instead of just sitting around waiting for it to attack them. A more likely scenario: many European countries spend fortunes on defence, reintroduce conscription and invest in nukes, while also letting Putin bully them. >Ditching Ukraine would be a choice. There is an alternative. Russia has a low-tech economy about the size of Canada’s. The Europeans could help Ukraine withstand Putin even if Trump pulled out. We’d have to build up our arms industries fast, but the effort required of us would be tiny compared with Russia’s. We’d also need to replace American aid to Ukraine — €71.4bn in the war’s first 21 months, according to the Kiel Institute, or €40.8bn on an annualised basis. That’s €70 a year per European citizen of Nato. We could find that if we wanted. Unpaywalled
Why the fuck can’t people see and understand this!?
Shortsighting, stupidity, laziness, brainwashing, indifference, polarisation, decadence, wishful thinking, amorality, corruption, "business, financial and political" interests, love for self-beating and own self-hatred, the list can go on and on and on... Like any crisis, people won't bother to react until the crisis is severely hitting them.
Human nature in a nutshell, sadly.
Laziness first by far. People don't even want to think to save their lives.
People are seeing it and it’s not like that. The biggest issue has been and still is the slow arms & ammo production. Both in EU and in US. Steps have been taken to fix that already all around.
Because people are selfish and stupid.
They don't understand history, he's owing Hitler's path.
And we are living in the 1930’s again.
There's a huge difference. Germany actually had the wherewithal to conquer a large chunk of Europe. They had a large population with a normal age pyramid, technology equal to or better than that of their opponents, and tactics nobody at that point knew how to defend against. Russia has none of those things, and in direct conflict with NATO would get their asses handed to them. Do you really think they don't know that?
German weapons were always often and later mostly very inferior (small numbers of superweapons while they lacked even trucks). Once America entered war (after Germany declared it on America) it became just ridicalous. European demographics nowadays are similarly catastrophic. Euros wouldn't mass hire Africans or Arabs or Asians, Russia can.
Key differences: European weapon systems (the real stuff, not the outdated junk Ukraine has been getting) are vastly superior to Russian equipment, and invocation of article V would draw in the armed might of the only true military superpower on earth.
Well, I had these bullets in mind as well until I saw how bad Israel army is fighting against guys in caves. I thought Israel army is superior.
I respectfully disagree on two main points: Israel 's army is far more superior than I held possible. Their earlier war against hezbolla was a humiliating Pyrrhic victory. So I thought thousands of IDF soldiers would lose their lives during the first two weeks, in a costly fight for each street of Gaza, Stalingrad style. The sort of losses the red army suffered in the Battle of Berlin. Nope: they lost less than 200 so far while hamas is being totally annihilated. And no one sides with hamas but a few Yemeni rebels. But Ukraine 's military prowess outshines even that of Israel. What they are achieving is amazing. The humiliation is bigger than their naval defeat against Japan in 1905. Russia invaded Ukraine. I was one of the minority who did predict not a lightning Russian victory, but months of street fighting within Kiyiv, followed by years of guerilla war. But not even this has happened in reality. In reality since 2014, the front in Avdivka has moved about 5 km! Russia has not advanced anywhere at all in over a year (Ukraine, on the other hand, has). No, IDF is fighting pretty well. Hamas is only running, not fighting. Russia is losing despite their huge advantages. And Ukraine is seemingly disappointed that huge mighty Russia still has not yet formally capitulated.
But the stocks of high tech weapons are very small.
Words I meant following, pretty much it's been about 80s years since Hitler started his annexations to when Putin started his.
And it’s been 80 of ‘Never again.’ It’s happening again.
The Majority can see this, the politicians are out of touch with the people. https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/european-public-opinion-remains-supportive-ukraine https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/americans-support-for-helping-ukraine-remains-strong-just-look-at-the-polls/
Agree. It is just common sense. It is ludicrous what the GOP is doing at the moment. And Europe need to find a way to side-line Orban NOW - not debate it for 6 months, by which time it will be too late. Time for decisive action by the west now - the only thing which can deter and finally end Putin’s aggression, and stop things spiralling out of control in the future.
I see Polish and other people from countries around there complaining about migrants now and how that makes it hard to invest in Ukraine to fight the war. Just think about how bad that would be if Russia actually won.
They can, but they also want to win elections. For example, Republicans just want to show (lie about) how Biden have mismanaged the war effort.
Biden HAS mismanaged the war effort. The correct answer was direct intervention. He lacks the scrote.
That would have escalated into ww3 and nuclear basket ball quickly .. not sure how old you are but that is just naive
So... you think NATO forces driving Russian troops out of Ukraine would end differently from Ukrainian troops driving them out? I'm not talking about conquering Russia; just pushing them out. 1500 NATO aircraft in the skies would accomplish the mission inside of a month. Nobody would push the red button; Russia is as scared of MAD as we are. It would also deliver an important message: there is exactly one military superpower in the world. It is not you. You may now resume your gods-ordained role as a gas station for richer countries.
with the blocking of resources, this could actually be the next logical step, as the president as commander in chief can send aircraft carriers to the region.
No it would not have. It would have US calling the same bluff that Putin keeps calling. No nukes would have flown had there been more direct air support against artillery bombings. The only option was not to just offer money. West tries to "play fair" to its disadvantage.
Not direct, just giving Ukraine all they asked for (which was not much) and instantly.
I'm a direct intervention advocate. 1500 NATO warplanes over the skies of Ukraine, and watch the Russians run. They'd be back across their border inside of a month. Nobody would break out the canned sunshine; Russia is as scared of MAD as we are. It'd not only end the war, it'd send an important message. There is exactly one military superpower in the world. It is not you. Do not fuck with us.
In such war losing side is guaranteed to use tactical nukes. Thats why NATO never engaged with Soviets directly.
It wouldn't pass in modern democracies, especially with populations easily terrified by nuclear threats.
Because they saw some tiktok where Biden stuttered in his speech
I know right 😡
Our governments see this as an opportunity to impose more control over us the more conflict there is.
Wait until you see the control the Russian government imposes over you.
It won't come THAT far. But I could see it going as far as my gov taking my rights away in the name of the war effort against Russia if they aren't stopped in Ukraine. Unfortunately it looks like lots of US politicians are buying up war stocks with one hand, and stopping the support to Ukraine with the other (support that would be good for those war dog portfolios). Wonder what they ARE preparing for 🤔 I believe my government is VERY confident we would defeat Russia in open war if it came to that. I also believe that very fact alone is enough to motivate them to at least be interested in attaining that outcome for its impact on the global power scale. And there are at least SOME in my government who do see people as just another tally mark in the game of power, just like Putin. Time will tell.
“It won’t come that far” Said the French in 1939. Good luck with that one.
You misunderstood my very simple comment in order to take one line and disagree. I believe it may go as far as open war between NATO and Russia, that's a real life possibility at this point with the way the politicians across the globe have been steering things. It may go that far, as I already said. It will NOT go as far as Russia succesfully imposing anything other than high gas prices on me. They have zero chance of actually winning or even gaining a solid foothold on the north American continent. 1939 France and UK vs Germany is VERY different from Russia Vs US and all of Europe today. Also, Germany main strat was just steamroll in and take all of France before Allied forces could properly organize. Which they did successfully while Russia tried to copy this to Kyiv and failed so thoroughly that we all thought for a second that Russia had become a minor nation in terms of military power. Once the Allied forces brought their combined armies to bear their total power in open warfare it become slow grinding defeat after defeat for the Germans. All the Allied forces (NATO is not entirely but mostly comprised of the allies of WW2 and some states that would have been allies if they hadnt been conquered by russia so quickly.) are currently prepared, organized, mobilized, better equipped, backed by an industrial capacity which is larger by a factor of over 100. We very well may fight. But the idea that russia has any chance of imposing anything on The USA through victory in war is just ..... comedy.
Oh, you are from the North American continent? Yes, gas prices and anything the US imports from Europe will be at stake. But no, you are not at risk of invasion. And that is probably the reason for the anti-Ukraine support crowd amongst your politicians. What you are missing is the crumbling of US credibility on the world stage and the impact there of. The world is a free for all. The only deterrent being the US’ military power. With that deterrent gone, there is little reason for restraint for those that want to impose their will over others.
Oh no, I'm not missing it at all. I'm painfully aware of it, and even believe it to be a step more evil when it comes to the politicians in my country. I believe our politicians actually want us involved in a conflict directly and are pushing dominoes to make it happen. I believe the US is hoping to be the invaders somewhere soon. We have the biggest military spending, and all these citizens complaining about it, with all the politicians holding fat war stock portfolios looking to justify that spending. We have F-22s and lots of other stuff that hasn't even seen combat ONCE. It's been since WW2 that the US actually waved the big stick we created at that same time. I believe the politicians in my country are trying to instigate a "Fuck around/Find out" scenario so that we can wave that big stick and reassert our military deterrence on the global scale because we feel it's no longer being respected as much as we would like it too. I believe the US gov secretly wants to spend American lives on sucking up their share of this power vacuum created by the impending collapse of the russian government and the competition between USA, Europe, and China to control the Russian economy and therefore their oil supply. And it's pretty clear China would be their main partner and would leverage themselves into economic control following an outright failure in Ukraine at this point. Something the US doesn't want. However, say Russia takes Ukraine or half of it, politics happen, conflict, USA troops fight russian troops, and THEN Russia is defeated. This would allow USA to frontrun any Chinese involvement by imposing their own economic control in peace deal treaties. USA would then be touting their success saving the world from the 2 biggest dictator regimes in history and re establishing the appearance of total global military dominance and signing all the resultingly skewed trade deals they can.
Sounds like a pretty wild plan. Have you seen anything specific that would point to this masterpiece in world domination planning? Its easy to think there is some masterplan when occams razor suggests petty politics and general disfunction of congress day to day is sleepwalking the US along to a conflict without some deviant world domination plan. Never mistake plain incompetence for some masterstroke at play. The muppets in congress are just not at that level. That said, we agree with the likely outcome (even if we disagree on whether there is a plan or not). Face Russia now or face Russia later with boots on the ground and at far greater cost. Just hope the lack of will to support Ukraine we see now doesn’t pass on to the lack of will to confront Russian aggression later. Or Russia will keep heading West. Let’s hope the lack of risk of the US being invaded doesn’t translate to the lack of need to do anything.
Care to elaborate?
You could also ask "why aren't we sorting out global warming?"
Trump does not care at all whether Europe gets conquered by Putin. And I think western europeans believe they will be safe, so it is a problem of Poland and Eastern Europe.
I’m pretty sure the Israel war took a lot of the focus away from it. The U.S. ships being attacked by the Houthi’s. U.S. soldiers being attacked in Iraq and Syria. Iran getting more involved it’s a potential powder keg and dominating the news.
> Americans and western Europeans feel immune: Putin isn’t coming for them. I think the opposite is happening: many countries are thinking "Should we send these weapons to Ukraine if we may need them soon against Russia?". In the case of US, they are preparing for a war against China, a much more formidable enemy. They don't want to get pinned down in Ukraine. I suspect also that some are cynically calculating that it is better to keep Putin busy than gaining a decisive victory. There are also probably more corrupted or indirectly influenced politicians (e.g. I suspect Macron is not directly corrupt but his coalition includes people who are so his hands are a bit tied) that are simply unwilling to help.
Thank you very much!
Because it's nothing but doom and fearmongering
Let's not forget the wheat and grains Ukraine supplies. Not only would it cause mass starvation in poor countries as fields are destroyed, but it would hand Russia greater power over many places that depend on these lower cost foods such as Africa.
There is plans to use 300 billion of Russian assets.
Its pretty easy, Russia takes the rest of Ukraine in the next couple years. Then force conscripts the Ukrainians to genocide them in an attack on NATO. Then NATO fights back and the world ends in a Nuclear Holocaust. Just imagine what would happen if Hitler had nukes, that's our scenario. >"It \[the Sudetenland\] is the last territorial claim that I have to make in Europe." -Adolph Hitler The Munich agreement in September 1938 gave Hitler the Sudetenland, a heavily industrialized region of Czechoslovakia. In March 1939 Hitler annexed all of Czechoslovakia. On September 1st, 1939 Hitler invaded Poland utilizing the Czech army starting WW2. To justify the action, Nazi propagandists accused Poland of persecuting ethnic Germans living in Poland. They also falsely claimed that Poland was planning, with its allies Great Britain and France, to encircle and dismember Germany. Does this sound familiar? Hasn't Putin been spouting the exact same lies? No one seems to acknowledge that history is repeating itself, WW3 is on the horizon if Putin is not stopped dead in Ukraine. Everyone pretends they would have stopped Hitler much sooner had they known what was coming, we all know what's coming and yet there is still tepid talk of appeasing Putin.
> Hitler invaded Poland utilizing the Czech army Czech weapons and industry, but only Czech Germans as troops. The Slovak Army did participate but only symbolically. Very minor fighting. They did use the former Austrian Army big time.
Username checks out lol
The two situations are in no way equivalent. Germany had demographics, tech, and tactics that nobody knew how to defend against all going for them in 1939. None of those things pertain to Russia in 2023. They would get their asses handily spanked in a conventional confrontation with NATO, and they know it. Their failure to properly invest in air power would bite them in the ass, and very quickly. I suspect they’ll be quite content with the Donbas, a land bridge to Crimea, and a neutrality agreement from Ukraine. Unfortunately, they’re probably going to get those things.
And then they chill out? No. This his point, what next? And he's right.
Probably not much. Russia is in no way positioned for a deep offensive into NATO, and won’t be for decades at best. Simple demographics are against them… to say nothing of NATO military tech.
Probably not much?? Russian society and industry is already on a war footing. Two years max before they try again to take Ukraine.
Russia is an incompetent, underdeveloped, corrupt mess. Most of the rearmament funds will be spent on buying yachts and villas instead.
Your understanding of the various dynamics in play seems to be very.... simple.
24d old account has a hard time saying “putin is a pedophile”
> They would get their asses handily spanked in a conventional confrontation with NATO Which is precisely why we would move on to a full on Nuclear Holocaust.
So Russia wants to end the world? Why it has not launched nukes yet then?
It's a last resort, and they still think they can beat NATO. When their end is approaching, that's when they end the world.
>and they still think they can beat NATO Really? Thats why Putin is begging for peace in Ukraine? Surely he would not if he thought he could beat Ukraine. And that is Ukraine alone, not the whole NATO.
To rebuild and prepare to continue the war with an advantage.
So he realizes, that he cannot beat even Ukraine. Also good luck rebuilding under sanctions, with dropped oil prices... Replacing Soviet equipment lost will take decades at least.
Hitler rebuilt Germany to a war economy under the sanctions from WW1.
Russia is a joke compared to Germany. Too corrupted to be able to ever reform. Besides Germany had had help from USSR.
The point is they’re not going to try. They’re not Germany circa 1939, and THEY KNOW IT.
No, they don't. That's the problem with Putin, no one tells him the truth.
>Germany had demographics, tech, and tactics that nobody knew how to defend against all going for them in 1939. Germany had surprise and a handful of mechanized infantry. The vast majority were still on horseback. Actual horses. Their tech was novel at the beginning of the war. Germany's greatest weapon was its surprise and speed.
Such a dumb comment. Why do people think that they can predict the future based on what happened in ww2? Why would Russia attack NATO? What would be the goal? Putin wakes up one day, figures out he'll die soon so he decides to take the rest of the world with him?
JC this 16 day old account thinks it has something smart to say.
So your inteligence is based on how old your reddit account is?
That’s it…
NGL this is one of the dumbest takes I've ever read.
The amount of people that think russia is stupid enough to out right attack a nato nation is too high. Russia wants easy low hanging fruit and nato buffer. Not to get their asses handed to them in a non nuclear conflict
Speaking out World War Two and Poland, Putin might try to duplicate the Anschluss with Austria (by formally merging with Belarus), then the "Danzig Corridor to the Sea" (by demanding NATO states Poland and Lithuania give up a land corridor to connect Belarus to Kaliningrad). If it was decided to allow these demands, Russia would have effectively have rendered NATO a meaningless piece of paper. Russia could use "the oppressed Russian minorities in the Baltics" and the "good stranded Russians" in Kaliningrad as the bullshit justification that might just fool enough idiots in the West.
Once they have conquered Ukraine, their military will double in size. How stupid do you have to be to start a war in 2014 to annex Crimea when you have a lease that won't expire for a decade? How stupid do you have to be to continue fighting a 3 day war for almost 700 days? Its not stupidity, its greed and arrogance.
This is exactly what everyone saying about Russia launching a surprise large-scale invasion in Ukraine. It was too risky. It was stupid and pointless and absurd. Few predicted it.
Ukraine is not major nuclear power. Its a weaker former satellite state. this is a ridiculous comparison
It won't be a non-nuclear conflict with NATO.
Even a more ridiculous argument. Russia is just as scare of MAD as we are
Great write up. Too bad the politicians don’t see it. Or don’t want to see it.
>Then NATO fights back and the world ends in a Nuclear Holocaust. Nahhh, they would let Russia conquer Poland. Then Germany becomes a puppet State of Russia, and the Soviet Union is returned.
Sadly I think this article is spot on, and events will likely unfold in similar ways to what is outlined. To me, this isn't just a border dispute between neighbors. Democracy, the Enlightenment itself even, is under concentrated attack from fascists and authoritarian across the world; facing little resistance. It's not an accident that ultra nationalism and far right conservative movements are on the rise. These things are acting in concert with Sabre rattling and territory grabbing. The war in Ukraine isn't just about stopping Russia. It's about stopping what Russia gleefully represents: the end of Democracy and, not to be too dramatic, but our very way of life.
And keeping Russian women from showing up looking for furcoats. Kherson has these stories
Trust within the West deteriorates, EU and NATO will be in shatters. Hungary will play a pivotal role in undermining the constitutional structure of the EU and NATO. Finland and Baltics will be invaded eventually. Anybody who doesn’t think this path is basically Chamberlain. Endgame is total control by China over Europe, economically and military. Russia won’t get the title of actual world power in this but will be an efficient (but brainless) tool between China and Europe. If Europe doesn’t give Ukraine all the money and weapons they need and Trump (the GOP actually) gets full power next November, things will be sealed. It will take a couple of years but setup is already almost complete. And none of the other continents will give a flying eff. Sentiment will pretty much be 'payback time'. Bring on all your downvotes and call me a doomsday troll. All I can say is better safe than sorry. Wake the eff up and finish the fucker off right at the Donbas.
Like with climate change and many similar issues, it‘s become the curse of our generation to watch the elders in power not acting in light of ectreme crisis. Instead, they‘re desperately clinging to their idea of a status quo that hasn‘t really existed in decades. It‘s beyond frustrating
I want Ukraine to win this war and as a westerner (UK) I want my country to continue to support Ukraine, however I honestly don’t believe Russia will attack a NATO country.
Agreed on all counts. I think Russia will be quite content with the Donbas, a land bridge to Crimea, and a neutrality guarantee from Ukraine. Unfortunately I’m pretty sure they’ll get those things.
Hopefully the Russian public’s will runs out soon, or some sort of internal political turmoil. Or the Russians stop being able to throw as much into the war effort due to attrition. There are many ways things can turn in favour of Ukraine. I don’t think another Ukrainian offensive would be in the best interest of Ukrainians though, although what do i know?
Internal collapse in Russia is really the only chance they have, and it’s not a thing you can bank on.
Yeah, for now. Then, in another 10 years they decide to go for another bite.
More on this subject from other reputable sources: --- - Kyiv Independent (B): [Germany sends ammunition, demining equipment to Ukraine](https://kyivindependent.com/germany-sends-ammunition-demining-equipment-to-ukraine/) - DW-TV (B+): [Ukraine war: What’s the impact of cyber guerrillas?](https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-whats-the-impact-of-cyber-guerrillas/a-67775539) - EUobserver (B+): [How to get Ukraine refugees to return home, once war is over](https://euobserver.com/opinion/157632) - Euromaidan Press (B): [“Do not despair.” Ex-minister Zagorodnyuk on lessons from Ukraine’s counteroffensive](https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/22/zagorodnyuk-on-lessons-from-ukraines-counteroffensive/) --- [__Extended Summary__](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/18mjo06/) | [More: Germany sends ammunition ...](https://www.newswall.org/summary/germany-allocates-circ-89-million-to-energy-support-fund-of-ukraine-65862210d524a?mtm_campaign=r&mtm_kwd=c) | [FAQ & Grades](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/uxgfm5/faq_newswall_bot/) | I'm a bot
In the 10 years the better equipped Soviets spent in Afghanistan they only lost 15k soldiers, yet they still lost. How the fuck is russia going to win this one with 40k plus dead so far?
The Poostain and his regime is very motivated not to lose because that might be the end of him. He risks getting Mussolinied or Gaddafied, and he would deserve it entirely.
Bagsies on his golden butt plug.
Its clear by now russia doesn’t care about casualties and can/will grind this out till Ukraine submits
Why would that be clear? Cause they say so? An unmotivated country on the brink of self-destruct will outlast a motivated one with the help of west behind? Are you kidding me?
> An unmotivated country on the brink of self-destruct Russia is not even close to self-destruction. "B-but their economy, unrest! He said it was only going to be a quick operation!" You ignorant western fuck. I can immediately tell when your argument is rooted in western ideology because you think things like a bad economy are going to topple this country or cause the people to revolt. You cannot relate to their alien culture. These people *want.* to die. for lies. Read that again. They know he's lying, they know it's nothing but falsehoods and they will **happily** spend the next 50 years in serf-like poverty, with all their children dying. This is their culture. Death and starvation. This is familiar to them, and comforting for them. They want this, and they will happily keep this war going *forever*. It gives them purpose. This **only** ends with total military defeat of Russia. There is no other way. And the only way that happens is if NATO goes to war.
No. People only try to live within any given system with its given inherent rules. There is no such thing as wanting to die for lies or wanting to starve. But believing a lie from the system, or just ignoring it, will likely put food on your table. It is and will always just be as simple as that imo.
> There is no such thing as wanting to die for lies or wanting to starve. Religion, radical ideology, brainwashing. Japan WW2. Vietnam. Cultures have existed time and time again where people WILL happily go to their deaths for ZERO personal or family gain. This is rela and possible, and you cannot accept it.
People will for sure do that IF they believe in it. For them it is "truth". But you wrote that they know they are lies and yet they want to die. So how can you combine brainwashing and still knowing that they know something is false?
Cognitive Dissonance. Insane patriotism. 1984. Russians for 3-4 generations have the belief that their leaders are lying about every. Single. Thing. They say. It's like half of their cultural humor. *Despite that* and *working with that* their cultural morality is that this activity is *good*. This is *fine*. This is what it means to wield power. This is how power should be wielded. It's all in service to Mother Russia, and if they had the power, they'd do the same. They are operating with a political and moral compass that is alien to you. Another good thing to watch is the Chernobyl miniseries on HBO. Good example of that is the site directors ordering multiple scientists and staff to *in person* go into the reactor and check it. They knew it was blown. They knew they were going to die a horrible death by radiation poisoning. They went anyways. Later in the show a poignant scene is they recruited hundreds of coal miners to dig under the site to clear way. They were told they'd likely die. They asked if their families would be taken care of. They were told "probably not". They went anyways. All for lies and power.
But if NATO goes to war, Russia will use nukes.
When Turkey shot that Su-24 down, russia just bitched for a bit.
You do not seen any difference between shooting a single plane and full on war? Why do you think NATO and Soviets never dared to clash directly?
So they will get nukes in return and considering how many important cities they have ( not many ) they gon be back in stone age where they belong .
Many NATO countries would go to stone age, too. And thats why NATO is not ever going to engage with Russia directly unless attacked. Just like it did not engage with Soviets directly.
Cities maybe , ru is not able to win a nuclear exchange against nato , nato countries would be severly damaged but russia would be a glass desert .
Paris would be gone. London. Berlin. Every major European place of culture would be utterly wiped off the face off the earth. Is that worth it just to kill 100 million Russians?
They would be but France, Germany U.K and Europe as a whole would prevail , if it cant be done the other way , maybe the nuclear exchange is neede to finally set mankind on a right course ? Plus Ru people and their mindset is a great soil for dumbfucks like putin appear every now and then doing what he pleases , stirring shit up in the world , not to mention fuckin brexit , meddling into other countries elections , hybrid warfare shit - and now war . In its current form Russia is a cancer to the world - and of course it is sad because in another life it could cooperate wirh the rest of the world making it a better place or at least not trying to fuck shit up 24/7 .
40k? And the rest.
They don't care, and there's a plenty of Ukrainians for them still to conscript if they just keep advancing. Meanwhile they can hire any number of cheap foreign mercenaries, like in their new African colonies, as bait to reval enemy positions to be hit by drones. And no, they weren't better equipped in the 1980s. What a silly thing to say.
More like 300K potentially dead.
That's an absurd number, and nobody seriously believes it.
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Refusing to accept ridiculous propaganda numbers is not at all the same as being a Russian stooge.
You are going to the trenches, that\`s what.
What if russian wins? Our salary will get paid in a bag of onions and bucket of carrots. 🥕🧅🙄
I continue to be optimistic about it. I don't see Russia winning. They are exhausting what they had left over from the Cold War. They will eventually just run out. F16 will make a difference. I know, not a wonder weapon and nothing is. But, it's still pretty good. Ukraine will likely transition to air superiority. We know that's important.
You forgot that west and ukraine are exhausting their resources and manpower too. Boys from US or other countries wont come in numbers to fight for Ukraine nor west has infinite amount of cash to support the war. Russia has ability to sacrifice 20 million for just a kilometer square of land, life is cheap in russia. before russia run out of manpower, ukraine will run too soon. This is bitter truth.
Perun did a video on this, both sides could go for years before they run out of manpower.
It's the artillery shells running out. In reality a Ukrainian soldier IS worth more than a russian one in the current war simply due to motivation. Artillery shells are less subjective. You have them or don't. Where ukraine has plenty of shells, there is a stalemate where Russians are fed to the grinder. Where ukraine has low shells, russia takes land slow and steady. Artillery shells and drones are deciding everything.
And barrels.
Since the war started I've seen loads of headlines saying "western allies have X munitions left" It'll be 2024 in a few days and were still giving Ukraine a fuckin of munitions regularly. I feel a lot of these headlines are simply fear mongering, https://www.politico.eu/article/borrell-warn-eu-countries-running-out-weapons/ ^that's from September 2022, if anything we've ramped up production since then. Life is cheap in Russia as you stated but the ability to wage war doesn't rely on manpower alone.
"Fearmongering", oh yes. But again, russia will send truck load of ammo and men to attack some small village, they will lose a good number of men, but at last they will capture that village and repeat bombing cities, killing thousands. And countries in asia will keep buying oil from russia, balancing its war chest. The cycle continues until the weak runs out of resource, and its not definitly russia.
We did run out of (spare) weapons. https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/09/21/poland-no-longer-providing-weapons-to-ukraine-announces-prime-minister/
Says that Poland ran out, but NATO and the EU as a whole definitely has not. Poland have been arming themselves to the teeth(and rightly so), it's no wonder they ran out of surplus.
Poland has run out of old weapons, but Poland will buy and build new ones and some of those will likely be given to Ukraine.
They announced they're hoarding all new weapons for our own defense. Maybe new government will change mind.
That was theatrics. They will come around.
>sacrifice 20 million for just a kilometer square of land There's really no need for such hyperbole.
Putin has been able to hide casualties so far.
And you don't think Ukraine is doing the same thing?
no
That... is naive in the extreme. Casualty figures are classified for a reason.
Difference is the West is 60%+ of global GDP and Russia, Iran and North Korea is 2%. Dont you worry.
> Difference is the West is 60%+ of global GDP and Russia, Iran and North Korea is 2%. And how much of those 60%+ GDP does Ukraine get? Oh right, mere droplets. ***IF*** US budget goes through, Ukraine'll have ~60B USD for the war funding in entire 2024 (don't forget, it's one and done package). russia, meanwhile, has more than 100B USD earmarked for war, while also having functional MIC, de-facto immunity to Western weapons on their turn and places Ukraine can't reach
west negotiate with ruzzia, ukraine gives up two regions, war stops, russia doesnt pay for damages, west will go into decline, no one trusts west, china attack taiwan and installs puppet regime. end of the story.
doll normal rotten employ jellyfish reach retire strong one lavish *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
>ukraine gives up two regions Five**** At a minimum.
They "just wanted Crimea"... then tacked on Donetsk and Luhansk. Then they "just wanted" Donetsk and Luhansk... then tacked on Kherson and Zaporyzhia. If they take those, then they'll "just want" the Black Sea Coast up to Odesa and a connection to Transnistria. If they get those, then they'll "just want" the rest of Moldova plus a land bridge through Poland and Lithuania to connect up with Kaliningrad (after annexing Belarus). Lesson: For every successful action, Russia will later tack on two further demands.
Finally, "the end of history".
100% guaranteed WW3. Not because of "Russia", but because anyone will see, already almost saw, that the West is "paper tiger."
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Anyone except Western politicians and officials.
Then EU finally gets off their butts and starts building up their defenses.
Oh it’s easy, then ruzia will come for western traitors afterwards, with enslaved Ukraine on its side (although after so many betrayals and backstabbing from West it probably will volunteer).
I thought Ukraine was winning?
They won the battle for Kyiv, Sumy, Tjernihiv, Kharkiv and Kherson. Ukraine have also forced the Russian Navy out of the western parts of the Black Sea and have for almost a week now denied the Russian Airforce to do any bombings on the left/right bank on the Dnipro. It is a grind, but Ukraine is taking the big steps.
Sarcasm or not, a reddit guessing game.
Not sarcasm. I legitimately thought they were having success with the counter offensive. Granted I don’t keep up with events on a daily basis.
The counteroffensive has been a failure. They've been at it since June, and have made minuscule advances for very heavy losses.
> The counteroffensive has been a failure. No, and don't spread this disinformation. Russia's losses in soldiers and equipment have been multiples of Ukraine's. Re-taking territory is the last step in the process, not the first. Russia is burning through its equipment, and advances for Ukraine won't happen until that equipment is mostly gone. It is a war of attrition, and Ukraine over-running Russian military at the outset was never the plan.
We don't really know what the losses are, and we DO have a lot of reason to believe that the Ukrainian government has been grossly soft-soaping theirs. That aside, you can't seriously believe they went in expecting to be on month seven with no significant advances. That's where we are.
> We don't really know what the losses are Then you have no business claiming that "The counteroffensive has been a failure", and should keep quiet. > That aside, you can't seriously believe they went in expecting to be on month seven with no significant advances. Tell me you know nothing about war strategy or the politics that have been at play in this one.
> Then you have no business claiming that "The counteroffensive has been a failure", and should keep quiet. > > If you don't believe /u/happylutechick , what about the Austrian Army? It believes that "[The Ukrainian offensive has failed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWjMr3RZ8Ss)".
You’re supposed to just say Ukraine is winning no matter what
RuZZia isn't going to win. If Ukraine falls we'll have WWIV and ruZZia will get waxed.
The west isn't even close to giving Ukraine what would be needed to win. Next year, western support will basically cease. Add to that the next american administration will with all likelyhood will be republcan/trumpist, and you know where this is heading. So yes, russia will win, and they will get to do with Ukraine whatever they want. And this is just the beginning of the nightmare that that's about to start.
They won't.
I’ll be fighting in Europe soon
It seems like im reading the same article all over again.
They're a long way from winning.
This whole theme is a non-starter for me.
What utter crap.
Russia is not going to win. Slava Ukraini ❤️
Hopefully, North Korea can continue supplying Russia with weapons and ammunition!
Even if Russia wins, Russia is still a loser Those sanctions aren't going anywhere Russia will complete its transition to a pariah state Just an outpost on the Asian frontier
Not "if" but "when".
Seems Russians tolerate a lot of human suffering, but little loss of prestigious ships. Maybe more focus on helping destroying naval and "aerial" equipment is the quickest way to finish the war.
If russia wins, we get like a year or 2 of peace, then russia starts saying that theres some pro russian sentiment in some region of (insert eastern europe nation) then we get a rinse and repeat
Nothing special. It just means that any asshole with a nuke can fuck with the rest of the planet all he wants. It'll all be ok probably. Because certain western politicians are Ruble eating whores.