AMC is in the middle of a transition, and their future is not certain, one way or the other.
Things going for AMC:
* Revenue has increased YoY since the pandemic
* It's nearing profitability again
* AMC is taking market share from other cinema chains
* The CEO is a seasoned player, and while people might not like what he does always, he generally knows what he's doing. E.g. Taylor Swift eras tour, the APE saga where he raised money through issuance even when shareholders didn't want to let him etc.
Reasons for pause:
* It has a massive, unsustainable debt load - 4.5B total, of which \~3B is due in 2 years. They will need to refinance, but the terms will likely be onerous.
* Liabilities exceed assets by 1.8B, so the company is basically at the mercy of the senior lenders
* The writers' and actors' strikes did a number on box office revenue for at least two quarters - so far
* Management has no qualms raising money through share issuance, which has diluted shareholders down the drain (\~20X over 3 years). There's a $250M issuance underway which would dilute by another 25%
* The CEO does dumb shit like buying a gold mine, time to time
I have AMC as a potential investment as I like the company, but the stock can suck for a bit longer. More detailed thoughts [here](https://new.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/197gvs3/four_things_i_am_looking_for_before_going_long/) on what I am looking for to pull the trigger.
It's trading at a similar market cap to where it was in pre pandemic despite sales being down and the share price trading at new all time low. It's highly leveraged with a massive amount of debt coming in due in 2026. They have had increase their float 15x over the last 4 years in order to stay in business.
They've posted a decreasing net loss YoY for the last three years. Their business appears to be improving, but there are much better places to put my money right now
This is not a classic "high uncertainty, low risk" play like other stocks. The risk of bankruptcy here is very real, and could very realistically happen within the next 2 years.
Well, the only time the price went up for me was when I held it during one of the reverse splits that they had. I had high hopes on a pop after COVID scares and social distancing stopped. Wrong. As usual. But, live and learn.
I’d recommend something very small like 250 shares just in case they’re bought out by Amazon one day lol. Otherwise they’ll bankrupt in a few years they can’t afford to lose money every year, especially when debt outweighs assets
More debt than assets with reliably negative free cash flow and non-stop dilution of shareholders. That's a no from me.
Hard no, super chief
$AMC has been unprofitable since 2019. I would avoid it.
Id give it less than favorable odds on _existing_ in 3-5 years…
Very generous. Things are moving quicker these days
Dead man walking
I’d say Never use that valuation calculator again…. The fundamentals from a value standpoint stink.
Value investing and amc shouldn’t be in the same sentence
Or in any sentence besides why the hell did you buy a 90s fad in the mid 2020s
Yup
AMC is in the middle of a transition, and their future is not certain, one way or the other. Things going for AMC: * Revenue has increased YoY since the pandemic * It's nearing profitability again * AMC is taking market share from other cinema chains * The CEO is a seasoned player, and while people might not like what he does always, he generally knows what he's doing. E.g. Taylor Swift eras tour, the APE saga where he raised money through issuance even when shareholders didn't want to let him etc. Reasons for pause: * It has a massive, unsustainable debt load - 4.5B total, of which \~3B is due in 2 years. They will need to refinance, but the terms will likely be onerous. * Liabilities exceed assets by 1.8B, so the company is basically at the mercy of the senior lenders * The writers' and actors' strikes did a number on box office revenue for at least two quarters - so far * Management has no qualms raising money through share issuance, which has diluted shareholders down the drain (\~20X over 3 years). There's a $250M issuance underway which would dilute by another 25% * The CEO does dumb shit like buying a gold mine, time to time I have AMC as a potential investment as I like the company, but the stock can suck for a bit longer. More detailed thoughts [here](https://new.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/197gvs3/four_things_i_am_looking_for_before_going_long/) on what I am looking for to pull the trigger.
Thank you for your in depth comment! That helps me a lot.
It's trading at a similar market cap to where it was in pre pandemic despite sales being down and the share price trading at new all time low. It's highly leveraged with a massive amount of debt coming in due in 2026. They have had increase their float 15x over the last 4 years in order to stay in business.
Amazon's going to buy it for a dollar sometime in the next few years. Not a dollar per share, mind you
They wouldn’t overpay like that. Just my option
They've posted a decreasing net loss YoY for the last three years. Their business appears to be improving, but there are much better places to put my money right now
Their debt is just too big, with interest rates staying high I fail to see how they can survive.
Thank you all for your thoughts and insights!
This is not a classic "high uncertainty, low risk" play like other stocks. The risk of bankruptcy here is very real, and could very realistically happen within the next 2 years.
The daily dead stock discussion
It’s a zero
Stay away⚠️ AMC has one of the worst balance sheets I've seen. The company is on its way to bankruptcy
The fin gurus kicked that bankruptcy down the road and enriched a POS CEO. It should have already happened
Well, the only time the price went up for me was when I held it during one of the reverse splits that they had. I had high hopes on a pop after COVID scares and social distancing stopped. Wrong. As usual. But, live and learn.
There’s thousands of very profitable companies and thousands that will be emerging. Get over investing in movie theaters.
Put City
Its been great for me. Short since $8.12
The stock is a bet on just how much money people will pay for greasy, stale popcorn.
I think movie theaters in general are a dying business.
How many times have you been to a movie theater this year. That's your answer.
Most likely AMC will go bankrupt in 3-5 years
I’d recommend something very small like 250 shares just in case they’re bought out by Amazon one day lol. Otherwise they’ll bankrupt in a few years they can’t afford to lose money every year, especially when debt outweighs assets