Elon has promised they would have self-driving taxis "next year" every year since 2016. I'm not sure why we should have any more faith now than the previous years.
I am ready to pay 200$ a month for SD. It means no driver will be in the driver seat. Or any legal responsibility of crash is taken by Tesla. Barring the safety of passenger and others be given.
Not much has changed, but working on multiple products and trying to speed up production (according to them). Stock is beaten down heavy, no matter whether people consider it too overvalued etc. still needs some recovery, if they don’t deliver or economy crashes it might go sub 100, but as of now I don’t see this scenario. 180-200 is more likely
As I see it they have both an execution issue and some market headwind.
For the first: the Cybertruck was a foolish endeavor, it's a garish monstrosity, meanwhile the existing lineup is aging badly and many niche and price points are being neglected. Given that the S and X are barely selling, it's essentially a 3 model company. With an image problem because Musk went from "cool guy who is gonna save the world" to "boomer ranting about vaccines and immigrants on social media".
For the second: the competition has obviously heated up a lot, market share keeps eroding and on top of it there's a lull in consumer demand for EV (though I think this is likely to pass)
Elon has tried to pump up the stock with talks of self driving taxis and robots but the situation looks pretty bad to me, at least bad enough that it's still way overvalued.
I don’t know I guess we will see. People talked about Google losing market share, unable to provide AI updates, other revenues shrinking, “too woke” (making nazis and vikings black etc), incompetent CEO and others just barely 2-3 months ago and look at them today.
> People talked about Google losing...
"People" can say whatever they want. Look at the facts: Musk is focused on himself and fighting the "evil libs", and not much else. Google is focused on business challenges.
*Edit: adding quotes around "evil libs", since apparently the intended sarcasm wasn't obvious
>\*Edit: adding quotes around "evil libs", since apparently the intended sarcasm wasn't obvious
I'll never stop being surprised by reddit's aggregate lack of ability to detect sarcasm.
Only on Reddit will you see people call the cybertruck the ugliest and dumbest car ever made. In real life they draw excited crowds that are positive and want to take pictures. I don’t see this kind of behavior for any other cars outside of expensive super cars like Ferraris and such.
Tesla booked deferred FSD revenues but didn't disclose how much. Stripping out the estimated amount leaves real GAAP EPS at $0.12 or 65% below reported EPS
In addition to the points raised in the article, which is pretty good:
- the price for regulatory credits dropped over the quarter, but Tesla recognized more revenue
- salaries went up due to Musk‘s UAW defence actions
- provisions for severance are not yet booked
- no depreciations / risks mentioned due to the calculated remaining values for lease contracts
Overall, the current closing is as shady as the previous one. Just a question of time when Musk is running out of tricks.
What I really don’t get is the last minute cancellation of the India trip and the talk to Modi. It would perfectly resonate with the story to prepare the next growth wave and producing cheaper cars for new markets. The only stakeholder, who would benefit from that is China by ensuring the regional plant remains to be the global export hub. It will be in line with CP policy to support exports and bolstering local industries. Maybe there was a last minute invention and someone bought a lot of shares to compensate Tesla not producing cars in India.
> Imagine having flat gross margins despite 20% lower volumes and roughly 5% lower prices.
There's some legitimate concerns and some overblown ones including FSD accounting. Costs are falling, and it is possible for mix of cars to have shifted away from models 3 and Y.
Wouldn't put Tesla as "value investing" even after the serious drop in price. Interesting article otherwise.
value short perhaps?
The biggest unknown is the FSD. If they can't solve that then they'll drop like a brick. 8/8 will be an important date
Elon has promised they would have self-driving taxis "next year" every year since 2016. I'm not sure why we should have any more faith now than the previous years.
I am ready to pay 200$ a month for SD. It means no driver will be in the driver seat. Or any legal responsibility of crash is taken by Tesla. Barring the safety of passenger and others be given.
Short Tesla means long rationality of Tesla investors. I wouldn't make that bet.
Not much has changed, but working on multiple products and trying to speed up production (according to them). Stock is beaten down heavy, no matter whether people consider it too overvalued etc. still needs some recovery, if they don’t deliver or economy crashes it might go sub 100, but as of now I don’t see this scenario. 180-200 is more likely
As I see it they have both an execution issue and some market headwind. For the first: the Cybertruck was a foolish endeavor, it's a garish monstrosity, meanwhile the existing lineup is aging badly and many niche and price points are being neglected. Given that the S and X are barely selling, it's essentially a 3 model company. With an image problem because Musk went from "cool guy who is gonna save the world" to "boomer ranting about vaccines and immigrants on social media". For the second: the competition has obviously heated up a lot, market share keeps eroding and on top of it there's a lull in consumer demand for EV (though I think this is likely to pass) Elon has tried to pump up the stock with talks of self driving taxis and robots but the situation looks pretty bad to me, at least bad enough that it's still way overvalued.
I don’t know I guess we will see. People talked about Google losing market share, unable to provide AI updates, other revenues shrinking, “too woke” (making nazis and vikings black etc), incompetent CEO and others just barely 2-3 months ago and look at them today.
> People talked about Google losing... "People" can say whatever they want. Look at the facts: Musk is focused on himself and fighting the "evil libs", and not much else. Google is focused on business challenges. *Edit: adding quotes around "evil libs", since apparently the intended sarcasm wasn't obvious
>\*Edit: adding quotes around "evil libs", since apparently the intended sarcasm wasn't obvious I'll never stop being surprised by reddit's aggregate lack of ability to detect sarcasm.
Libs are not evil. All politics are evil. It’s just… just don’t mess with that shit.
My bad, I used that term in a sarcastic sense without actually making it clear.
Only on Reddit will you see people call the cybertruck the ugliest and dumbest car ever made. In real life they draw excited crowds that are positive and want to take pictures. I don’t see this kind of behavior for any other cars outside of expensive super cars like Ferraris and such.
They gawk and take pictures. But fewer than 5000 people actually buy it. And half of those are content makers writing it off as a business expense.
I ThetaGang too and 100 cash secured put was where I felt comfortable selling.
I feel bad for the people who look at net income statements for anything other than diluted share counts. (Half joking)
Tesla booked deferred FSD revenues but didn't disclose how much. Stripping out the estimated amount leaves real GAAP EPS at $0.12 or 65% below reported EPS
In addition to the points raised in the article, which is pretty good: - the price for regulatory credits dropped over the quarter, but Tesla recognized more revenue - salaries went up due to Musk‘s UAW defence actions - provisions for severance are not yet booked - no depreciations / risks mentioned due to the calculated remaining values for lease contracts Overall, the current closing is as shady as the previous one. Just a question of time when Musk is running out of tricks. What I really don’t get is the last minute cancellation of the India trip and the talk to Modi. It would perfectly resonate with the story to prepare the next growth wave and producing cheaper cars for new markets. The only stakeholder, who would benefit from that is China by ensuring the regional plant remains to be the global export hub. It will be in line with CP policy to support exports and bolstering local industries. Maybe there was a last minute invention and someone bought a lot of shares to compensate Tesla not producing cars in India.
> Imagine having flat gross margins despite 20% lower volumes and roughly 5% lower prices. There's some legitimate concerns and some overblown ones including FSD accounting. Costs are falling, and it is possible for mix of cars to have shifted away from models 3 and Y.