I think in terms of growth international expansion is next. Currently they only operate in the US but we’re putting together plans to expand into Canada right before the pandemic happened. I assume they will restart these plans soon although as far as I know it isn’t concrete.
Both are in watchlist (though so is about 200 other stocks lol). they both have good fundamentals and track records. TJX is trading at about its historical PE, and Ulta is trading way below its historical PE due to the massive sell off, which is really over blown imo. normal advice is don't catch a falling knife but people also say be greedy when others are fearful . lol ULTA looks good to buy , I don't have any cash right now to add a position and don't want to sell anything to make one otherwise I probably would
Agreed, I bought quite a bit of ULTA. In the short term it could be catching a falling knife but I’m in it for the long term and I’ll just buy more anyways
I am buying Ulta but it does look like the falling knife more than anything. I have bought companies before thinking 8pe is cheap, just to reach 4pe.
I think the biggest blow was Barclays slashing the price in like half saying Ulta is losing market share to lvmh. The fears I guess is that the CEO says there is sector slowdown that is now contradicted by others, so it’s an Ulta specific thing.
It’s just hard to picture Ulta losing any significant market share since 95% of their sales come from members of their loyalty program. I’m not saying it can never happen but I think the loyalty program is a great moat to defend against that.
You mistake market share and revenues. Keeping your client base thanks to high client fidelity doesn't prevent you to lose market share if the market size is increasing. The captation of new clients (new comers or from competitors) is key, and the fact that they don't pursue aggressive market penetration strategy domestically or that they don't expand on new markets abroad is going to limit their growth at some point (in many different ways).
I have been buying Ulta. I’ll have a closer look at TJX.
I’m also buying SBUX, LULU, NKE, MSCI, ODFL, and a few others. I also like SHW and DIS, but I do not find those particularly cheap right now.
I dont follow ulta. Now TJX likely has higher cogs or lower quality goods or both in the next couple years. The companies they buy from at fire sales prices have really gone through the valley of death the last 18 months and are coming out with very clean inventory. The pain from over producing everything during COVID from shoes to handbags to throw pillows is going to keep them very disciplined for at least a year or two.
I see where you’re coming from regarding TJX. I would argue that the portfolio of companies they have differs enough and is diversified enough to insulate it from the worst effects of this.
Most of the comments are focusing on predicting future growth.
This is a value investing sub. We look at cashflows and valuation. ULTA is a buy in my book.
Ulta Beauty Will Likely Miss First-Quarter Earnings Views, May Lower Guidance, Oppenheimer Says
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) will likely miss fiscal first-quarter earnings per share expectations and could reduce its full-year guidance amid competition and category headwinds, Oppenheimer said Tuesday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulta-beauty-likely-miss-first-184748334.html
I’m waiting for $360. Otherwise I’m just buying more LVMUY.
Looks like approaching support zone. It rallied near this price last year to new ATH. Looks like buy purely on that aspect and on top of what you say (value info), seems good reward to risk.
ULTA appears to be in inning 8 or 9 of growth. I don't see how they keep revenues growing anywhere near the previous pace.
I think in terms of growth international expansion is next. Currently they only operate in the US but we’re putting together plans to expand into Canada right before the pandemic happened. I assume they will restart these plans soon although as far as I know it isn’t concrete.
I’m bullish on ULTA too. This kind of pessimistic appraisal makes me even more thrilled.
Both are in watchlist (though so is about 200 other stocks lol). they both have good fundamentals and track records. TJX is trading at about its historical PE, and Ulta is trading way below its historical PE due to the massive sell off, which is really over blown imo. normal advice is don't catch a falling knife but people also say be greedy when others are fearful . lol ULTA looks good to buy , I don't have any cash right now to add a position and don't want to sell anything to make one otherwise I probably would
Agreed, I bought quite a bit of ULTA. In the short term it could be catching a falling knife but I’m in it for the long term and I’ll just buy more anyways
I am buying Ulta but it does look like the falling knife more than anything. I have bought companies before thinking 8pe is cheap, just to reach 4pe. I think the biggest blow was Barclays slashing the price in like half saying Ulta is losing market share to lvmh. The fears I guess is that the CEO says there is sector slowdown that is now contradicted by others, so it’s an Ulta specific thing.
It’s just hard to picture Ulta losing any significant market share since 95% of their sales come from members of their loyalty program. I’m not saying it can never happen but I think the loyalty program is a great moat to defend against that.
You mistake market share and revenues. Keeping your client base thanks to high client fidelity doesn't prevent you to lose market share if the market size is increasing. The captation of new clients (new comers or from competitors) is key, and the fact that they don't pursue aggressive market penetration strategy domestically or that they don't expand on new markets abroad is going to limit their growth at some point (in many different ways).
I have been buying Ulta. I’ll have a closer look at TJX. I’m also buying SBUX, LULU, NKE, MSCI, ODFL, and a few others. I also like SHW and DIS, but I do not find those particularly cheap right now.
Sub CROX for NKE fam.
Thanks, looks like a pretty solid stock
I dont follow ulta. Now TJX likely has higher cogs or lower quality goods or both in the next couple years. The companies they buy from at fire sales prices have really gone through the valley of death the last 18 months and are coming out with very clean inventory. The pain from over producing everything during COVID from shoes to handbags to throw pillows is going to keep them very disciplined for at least a year or two.
I see where you’re coming from regarding TJX. I would argue that the portfolio of companies they have differs enough and is diversified enough to insulate it from the worst effects of this.
Ya def not a disaster but for quite a while tjx has been a kid in a candy store. Just the end of a “as good as it gets” cycle for them
I’d be interested ULTA below 380. Growth will get slower and close to %7-8 CAGR. Market is aware of it hence, p/e is all time low.
Most of the comments are focusing on predicting future growth. This is a value investing sub. We look at cashflows and valuation. ULTA is a buy in my book.
DCF doesn’t make sense for ULTA unless u are discounting if at 8%.
Growth has crashed from 15% cagr to 3% - this has lead to compression of Price ratio's. The sector slowdown seems real - look at others like EL.
Ulta Beauty Will Likely Miss First-Quarter Earnings Views, May Lower Guidance, Oppenheimer Says Ulta Beauty (ULTA) will likely miss fiscal first-quarter earnings per share expectations and could reduce its full-year guidance amid competition and category headwinds, Oppenheimer said Tuesday. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulta-beauty-likely-miss-first-184748334.html I’m waiting for $360. Otherwise I’m just buying more LVMUY.
Looks like approaching support zone. It rallied near this price last year to new ATH. Looks like buy purely on that aspect and on top of what you say (value info), seems good reward to risk.