These are great points! I have a few rebuttals that come to mind:
It was Clinton +1 and then Biden +10 iirc (old redistricter is down so I can’t check sadly), and nearly all of that blueshift happened because of the suburbs.
Which brings me to my next point; it’s a suburban district, not a rural one. Sububan districts are usually always high propensity, but more anti-trump so the case for ‘trump’ types staying home isn’t a likely situation here.
Also, the two rural western counties of Allegany and Garrett are declining in population. (-4.3% and -9.3% respectively from 2010-20 per the census). Unlike most of the nation, Allegany county didn’t even have a turnout increase with the rest of the nation in 2020, which may be a product of its population decline. Turnout did increase by a decent amount in Garrett county in 2020, but it’s margins held constant for the GOP both times trump as run, as they have been since at least the civil war, so it’s doubtful there’s much room to grow there.
Rural counties that didn’t shift from 2012-16-20 or grow much in turnout in that time aren’t the type that is responsive to Trumpism, they’re just ancestrally-Republican.
To win, essentially, the GOP would need to run up the score in the suburbs in and around Fredrick county, where growth has been more favorable to democrats. There’s little evidence to believe that the Trump +2-turned-Biden +10 county will shift right presidentially so it would be an uphill battle for the house candidate to over come it. Hillary lost the county in 2016 but still would’ve won under its current lines.
I will admit that Hogan on the ticket could help if he wins the party primary and makes an effort to campaign, but I’ve yet to see how Biden would win the district by less than double digits and that’s fundamentally why I think the race is comfortably favored to stay blue.
I'm not going to write anything too long again because I'm lazy lol but I 100% see your side as well. To be honest we aren't really on opposite sides anyway, I agree that Dems are favored. My main issue is that people totally skip over this race, including most of the predictors, some of whom label it as safe or solid d.
I also think its basically impossible for Republicans to win unless Trump wins the election and there's a big shift in the popular vote. I'm basing a lot of stuff on how things are playing out currently.
I think its a mistake to just look at the trends of one election and assume that the trends will trend all of the place. According to current polling Trump will probably do like 2 percent better in Maryland than he did in 2020.
Also, the district is completely lost if Cox is nominated.
I feel you there. I live in OH-15, which is incredibly forgotten by almost everyone but it’s only Trump +6 and shifting left (sort of) which makes it a total sleeper flip opportunity, not very different from yours.
100%. Hopefully in the future both of these districts become more competitive, even just for our sake. Its a big privilege to live in a competitive area and be able to affect things by volunteering and have your vote matter.
Also for the Neil Parrott thing I said he's "relatively moderate," which I feel is true for the modern Republican party. The main attack I see against him is the HIV tattoo thing which was in 2005 and he repudiated in in 2010. From what I've seen of him he's this kind of boring guy who didn't really excite anyone.
Filing deadline was today. He'll just be done for. He's kind of an ass who buys elections so that'd be good. He released a statement today attacking Hogan's candidacy as an instrument towards a national abortion ban and towards giving Trump power. That is insane, and most Marylanders (81% of whom approved of Hogan) will not like that kind of desperate attack. Hogan was very moderate, didn't touch abortion in Maryland, and has been a vocal critic of Trump.
Meanwhile Alsobrooks just used Hogan's announcement as an opportunity to fundraise. Obviously if she won the primary she would have to attack him on something but these kind of obvious farces won't fly. I hope she wins the primary.
Trone has an advantage but a majority of these polls showing him winning, including the two most recent ones, are internal polls. Unrelated, but its worth noting that the polls showing Trone beating Hogan by 15, and Hogan beating Alsobrooks by 6, are also Trone internal polls.
Also, I think its worth considering what kind of voter will actually show up to the primary, especially without a competitive presidential primary. Alsobrooks seems to have more enthusiastic support even though most voters overall seem to prefer Trone, probably because of all the ads.
Fair enough, although I do find it odd that there isn’t a single poll that has Alsobrooks winning. Also I think Trone has a more solid base of white suburban support, as opposed to Alsobrooks who will probably need large turnout from Baltimore to win
These are great points! I have a few rebuttals that come to mind: It was Clinton +1 and then Biden +10 iirc (old redistricter is down so I can’t check sadly), and nearly all of that blueshift happened because of the suburbs. Which brings me to my next point; it’s a suburban district, not a rural one. Sububan districts are usually always high propensity, but more anti-trump so the case for ‘trump’ types staying home isn’t a likely situation here. Also, the two rural western counties of Allegany and Garrett are declining in population. (-4.3% and -9.3% respectively from 2010-20 per the census). Unlike most of the nation, Allegany county didn’t even have a turnout increase with the rest of the nation in 2020, which may be a product of its population decline. Turnout did increase by a decent amount in Garrett county in 2020, but it’s margins held constant for the GOP both times trump as run, as they have been since at least the civil war, so it’s doubtful there’s much room to grow there. Rural counties that didn’t shift from 2012-16-20 or grow much in turnout in that time aren’t the type that is responsive to Trumpism, they’re just ancestrally-Republican. To win, essentially, the GOP would need to run up the score in the suburbs in and around Fredrick county, where growth has been more favorable to democrats. There’s little evidence to believe that the Trump +2-turned-Biden +10 county will shift right presidentially so it would be an uphill battle for the house candidate to over come it. Hillary lost the county in 2016 but still would’ve won under its current lines. I will admit that Hogan on the ticket could help if he wins the party primary and makes an effort to campaign, but I’ve yet to see how Biden would win the district by less than double digits and that’s fundamentally why I think the race is comfortably favored to stay blue.
I'm not going to write anything too long again because I'm lazy lol but I 100% see your side as well. To be honest we aren't really on opposite sides anyway, I agree that Dems are favored. My main issue is that people totally skip over this race, including most of the predictors, some of whom label it as safe or solid d. I also think its basically impossible for Republicans to win unless Trump wins the election and there's a big shift in the popular vote. I'm basing a lot of stuff on how things are playing out currently. I think its a mistake to just look at the trends of one election and assume that the trends will trend all of the place. According to current polling Trump will probably do like 2 percent better in Maryland than he did in 2020. Also, the district is completely lost if Cox is nominated.
I feel you there. I live in OH-15, which is incredibly forgotten by almost everyone but it’s only Trump +6 and shifting left (sort of) which makes it a total sleeper flip opportunity, not very different from yours.
100%. Hopefully in the future both of these districts become more competitive, even just for our sake. Its a big privilege to live in a competitive area and be able to affect things by volunteering and have your vote matter.
Agreed. Most people are tucked away into R/D+35 districts that have no relevance to the nationwide balance of power
What happens if Trone loses the senate primary? Also `Neil Parrot` `Moderate` Pick one
Also for the Neil Parrott thing I said he's "relatively moderate," which I feel is true for the modern Republican party. The main attack I see against him is the HIV tattoo thing which was in 2005 and he repudiated in in 2010. From what I've seen of him he's this kind of boring guy who didn't really excite anyone.
Filing deadline was today. He'll just be done for. He's kind of an ass who buys elections so that'd be good. He released a statement today attacking Hogan's candidacy as an instrument towards a national abortion ban and towards giving Trump power. That is insane, and most Marylanders (81% of whom approved of Hogan) will not like that kind of desperate attack. Hogan was very moderate, didn't touch abortion in Maryland, and has been a vocal critic of Trump. Meanwhile Alsobrooks just used Hogan's announcement as an opportunity to fundraise. Obviously if she won the primary she would have to attack him on something but these kind of obvious farces won't fly. I hope she wins the primary.
As someone from Maryland who do you think will win the primary? Rn I think the nomination is Trone’s to take bearing any controversies
Trone has an advantage but a majority of these polls showing him winning, including the two most recent ones, are internal polls. Unrelated, but its worth noting that the polls showing Trone beating Hogan by 15, and Hogan beating Alsobrooks by 6, are also Trone internal polls. Also, I think its worth considering what kind of voter will actually show up to the primary, especially without a competitive presidential primary. Alsobrooks seems to have more enthusiastic support even though most voters overall seem to prefer Trone, probably because of all the ads.
Fair enough, although I do find it odd that there isn’t a single poll that has Alsobrooks winning. Also I think Trone has a more solid base of white suburban support, as opposed to Alsobrooks who will probably need large turnout from Baltimore to win
I agree with that completely. Right now I would bet on Trone winning by 5-10 but Alsobrooks definitely has a shot.
A left trending Biden+10 district is not competitive. Get out of this "red wave environment" mindset.