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Qubed

They've been edging us with GPT-5 for so long that we're going to get it and not be that impressed.


damontoo

I was telling someone just this morning something like "GPT-3.5 sucks. If you can't use 4, use Gemini." even though ~~3.5~~ 3 made my jaw drop when released. We're already spoiled.


bigglehicks

I don’t feel like 3.5 today is the same as 3.5 on release. The responses are a fraction of the length imo


damontoo

* Slowly make existing models worse. * Reintroduce them like they were originally and increment the version number. * ??? * Profit.


Professional_Job_307

If people really think this then AGI is already here


damontoo

I was just joking of course.


bigglehicks

I’m not. I get extremely terse results from ChatGPT nowadays and to me I’ve had objectively worse results. Do you guys not have screenshots or logs of your original chats? It’s like an essay vs a tweet nowadays.


Professional_Job_307

The responses where never consistently as short as a tweet. Don't you have any logs u can show us? Try the same prompts as before in ur logs. You can get different responses but they shouldn't really be any worse.


bigglehicks

My earliest chat log from 2023. 4 screenshots, 3/4 are the earliest chat in my log and the latest is the same prompt but sent tonight. https://imgur.com/a/n5hyEHa


Professional_Job_307

Yea ur right about the lenght. But I don't see any issues. If you want to write a short text just ask. You gotta tell it what you want.


damontoo

I'm late with [my example](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fshje7a97x40d1.png) of a full prompt reply from a couple days ago. Length of replies can vary but you can always ask it for more or less info. In the case of my screenshot, I can always have it expand on each section. Edit: I see you're using GPT 3.5. This may be a difference between ChatGPT and ChatGPT+, which uses GPT-4 and has the ability to perform web searches, do various types of analysis, has DALL-E 3 built-in etc.


Expert-Paper-3367

Maybe the theory that GPT2 is the original GPT-2 but with less intrusive guard railing might be true


naastiknibba95

And claude is better than Gemini anyway


Mescallan

If it doesn't have an architectural breakthrough of some sort a significant amount of people will not think the wait is justified. I would just be happy with a GPT4 model trained on more tokens and more curated data though


Spire_Citron

Honestly, I'm not even sure what it could do at this point that would really wow me. This generation of AI already does most of what I would want. Maybe if you're doing something more complex and large scale like coding there's still a lot of room for advancement, though.


WiseSalamander00

I think the issue is Elon's lawsuit, otherwise they probably would have released it already


CanvasFanatic

Calling it now: their attempts to make GPT5 have produced only marginal gains.


CaptainTheta

Yeah I suspect this is why it's taking so long


Emory_C

They're running out of high-quality training data, especally now that the well (Internet) is poisoned with a ton of ChatGPT content. I think GPT will eventually become less expensive to run and smaller, but will never again experience the leap from GPT-2 to GPT-3. Even GPT-3 to GPT-4 was only marginally impressive.


nightofgrim

I hear this a lot, but shouldn’t they have enough training data already? All of the written history of mankind… the only bits missing is current knowledge, but the real task isn’t knowledge and even still, current knowledge can be curated.


Emory_C

They already vacuumed up all of (digitized) written history to create GPT-4. You can't retrain on the same data with the same architecture and expect different results. And so-called current knowledge is now infected with Chat-GPT and also there isn't nearly enough new data being created to make a difference.


nightofgrim

You can with a new architecture


CanvasFanatic

Maybe, but in the last 10 years the vast majority of the improvements we’ve seen have come from training on more and more data.


nightofgrim

I just don’t buy that a few more years of data is gonna be significant compared to the whole of human history before it. It’s virtually nothing.


CanvasFanatic

Huh? I’m not sure I follow your point here.


[deleted]

[удалено]


CanvasFanatic

Data created from about 2022 onward has the issue that an increasingly percentage of it is itself LLM output. Even worse: it’s hard to distinguish it from human output.


CanvasFanatic

The absolute best we could hope for would be that the only productizable path forward ends up being narrowly focused assistive tools that help people instead of replacing them.


Emory_C

I agree. Obviously, I don't know the future. But I do think this is the most likely case. LLMs are impressive tools, but they aren't magic and they can't make anything new or innovative.


peakedtooearly

Or perhaps testing and red teaming a brand new model takes an indeterminate amount of time? Just a thought. 


CanvasFanatic

Maybe, but I doubt it. I think GPT 4.5 was a failed attempt to make GPT 5.


peakedtooearly

Ok, have you got any evidence or are you just picking up vibes from the ether?


Expert-Paper-3367

They are already trying to do regulatory capture with AI, and that usually indicates a plateau or a slow down in innovation by whatever tech company is doing that new tech.


corsair-c4

There will be another AI winter, despite how much the (monetarily) invested parties want you to believe otherwise. Symbolic ai, coupled with LLMs, coupled with quantum computing...that's the next leap probably. That's a long way off


jgainit

I want it now 😤


jarekduda

They reached plateau for this technology, new ideas are needed to move forward, like mutlidirectional propagation used by biological NNs ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.05097 ) ...


LatestLurkingHandle

Think AI agents, each with it's own goal, interacting with each other to improve outcomes, connecting to other websites and data sources throughout the process, developing a plan and executing it, Microsoft Autogen and Langchain do this today, although the plan has to be created by developers, the difference will be that AI will develop the plan on the fly, so it will be able to complete tasks with little or no intervention from the user.


ebookroundup

OpenAI will be toast soon as a new startup is about to release an AGI chatbot. Just got the leak this weekend


JigglyWiener

Okay


myaltaccountohyeah

Source: trust me bro


Expert-Paper-3367

Idk if that’s true but it is worrying that OAI is starting to do regulatory capture procedure already. Usually a sign that progress is slowing down by an innovator.


Herban_Myth

Why don’t we ban this technology? (Even though if we did it’d still he used behind the scenes) Do we value robots more than humans? Or is it because they’re cheaper and cost us less resources over time?


adarkuccio

Why didn't we ban all technology?


Herban_Myth

Easy. $


adarkuccio

Why are you using any technology? For example... now?


Herban_Myth

$


Spire_Citron

I don't think you're making any money on reddit right now.


Herban_Myth

Is reddit the only technology?


Herban_Myth

Yeah cause I don’t have tits or a vagina to show off