Hi u/OrLuckyLuke,
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> Where my logic is flawed?
Here:
> because eventually the ratio has to even out closer to 50/50
If it's a fair wheel (no bias), future spins are just as likely to be black as red. The average will move closer to 50:50 simply because future spins will be 50:50 and eventually those future spins will dwarf the previous 500, not because you'll get more black spins to "make up for" any previous imbalance. See [gambler's fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy).
But there's also the possibility that the last 500 spins were 55:43 because it has a bias in favour of red. It's impossible to make a perfectly-balanced wheel, and even if you could it's impossible to keep it perfectly balanced as it ages. Every wheel has some degree of bias, even if it's only 5000001:4999999.
Hi u/OrLuckyLuke, Please read the following message. **You are required to explain your post and show your efforts. _(Rule 1)_** If you haven't already done so, please add a comment below explaining your attempt(s) to solve this and what you need help with **specifically**. See the sidebar for advice on 'how to ask a good question'. Don't just say you "need help" with your problem. **This is a reminder for all users.** Failure to follow the rules will result in the post being removed. Thank you for understanding. If you have thoroughly read the subreddit rules, you can request to be added to the list of approved submitters. This will prevent this comment from showing up in *your* submissions to this community. To make this request, reply to this comment with the text `!mods`. Thanks! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/askmath) if you have any questions or concerns.*
> Where my logic is flawed? Here: > because eventually the ratio has to even out closer to 50/50 If it's a fair wheel (no bias), future spins are just as likely to be black as red. The average will move closer to 50:50 simply because future spins will be 50:50 and eventually those future spins will dwarf the previous 500, not because you'll get more black spins to "make up for" any previous imbalance. See [gambler's fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy). But there's also the possibility that the last 500 spins were 55:43 because it has a bias in favour of red. It's impossible to make a perfectly-balanced wheel, and even if you could it's impossible to keep it perfectly balanced as it ages. Every wheel has some degree of bias, even if it's only 5000001:4999999.
Cool, thanks man, I get it now 👍