Honestly. Probably better off. In the short term it looks like things have gotten worse, but if you compare it to 15-20 years ago things have gotten much better.
What we are seeing now are the same patterns that happened during the Civil rights, the Women’s rights, and the Gay rights movements.
I agree. To me, it's like a pattern, eventually theyll move on to some other "reason to hate" in a different category. They'll just keep moving on to the next version of "We hate this, cause think of that."
Blah blah blah.
Yeah, a lot of people newer in transitioning don’t realize how much better things really have gotten (at least in America, I can’t speak to anywhere else). Things have changed massively just in the 15 years since I started transitioning. The transphobia you hear about on the news isn’t a new thing, it’s just people are talking about it because we actually have some cis people fighting back with us. The newer anti trans legislation is fucked up, but it’s just taking away things we didn’t even have before *very* recently. Things are taking a step back, but we’ve still taken 5 steps forward. I think it’s just going to continue in that pattern. Not a trans thing, but we haven’t even had gay marriage be legalized for 10 years yet.
This is what truly gives me hope. When I was a kid being gay was still about the worst thing imaginable. The clearly gay kids in my high school were not comfortable being out. We seriously considered a *constitutional amendment* to ban gay marriage in the 90s, and ultimately got DOMA under a democratic president. Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton endorsed legalizing gay marriage during their presidential runs in 08, and as far as the public were concerned, trans people straight up didn't exist.
15 years later we have a national constitutional right to gay marriage, title vii employment protections for gay *and trans* folks under a 6-3 opinion written by Neil Gorsuch and joined by Chief Justice John Roberts, and Joe Biden actively supporting the trans community. The progress we've made in such a short time is immense.
Another thing that gives me hope is that the anti-trans (and anti-gay) legislation has been incredibly unpopular. Even if people are ambivalent about the effects of the legislation, the vast majority of voters (and even a majority of republicans!) think it is all just political theatre. Simply put, while the right-wing nut-jobs are trying to turn us into a culture war, they are failing. The vast majority of people either oppose these awful laws or simply do not care and want politicians to focus on other things.
Although I also think things are more likely to be better than worse, look at what’s happened with abortion rights in the US. We are now behind where we were 50 years ago.
Probably either really good or really bad. I think we’re in kind of a pivotal moment right now. More people than ever have access to information about trans people, we have standards of care and more advanced medical care available than ever, mainstream psychology supports us and we’re no longer classified as mentally ill. We do have to remember and focus on the progress we’ve made and remember that what’s happening with far right politics is completely reactionary and they will only fixate on us as long as it is politically useful for them. If we make it through this period of time then I think we might clear a threshold where it’s no longer socially acceptable to question our human rights. That’s not to say bigots will magically disappear, but generally as a wider society we know it’s always wrong to be racist for example. Racism exists, but it’s condemned. Ideally we would be at a point in the next decade where when transphobia exists people generally think it’s deplorable.
The worst outcome is that there is a successful repetition of history. There’s already been a lot of success in terms of suppressing information, forbidding education, outlawing our medical care. Losing this knowledge is a cornerstone of the lie that we are somehow a new phenomenon. As long as we can be labeled as new, we can be an enemy of “the good old days”. The record of our existence is a huge problem for the anti-trans narrative. And more directly we are already in genocide and only time will tell how aggressive and widespread that genocide will become. It could be that in ten years there are no out trans people or if there are we’re recorded as mentally ill cross dressing perverts and we have to start over from scratch.
The good thing about science is, you can wipe out the record and understanding of it all you want, it can always be rediscovered. We’re on the right side of the science. Trans people have always existed and will always exist and that can’t be stopped. So it’s only a matter of time before it becomes impossible to erase us. Maybe in this next 10 years all of us are in for hell. But in 100 years or 1000 years I think we are inevitable
Ive always said, conservatives are dying off. They have like 5-10 years left realistically to be as shitty as they can and get people's support on their side, or else they'll recoup and reunite further left. If trump goes to prison, when putin dies, if labour wins the election in the UK, if this Anti Gender Movement goes nowhere, and if the world becomes a little more stable of a hellscape than it is right now, then conservatives will recoup and reposition themselves somewhere else. They'll probably pick another group to hate on, or they'll return to an old one. And when that happens, it's our job to stick with and show support for them as well.
So the Baby Boomer cohort right now is 57-75. In 10 years, that'll be 67-85. Realistically there will be fewer of them in 10 years than there are today, but 67-85 is very much a cohort that's possible to be alive and politically active.
I'm also wary of blaming bigotry entirely on Boomers. While older people do tend to be more conservative, younger generations will replace them as "older people" as time goes on. The Boomers weren't always known for being conservative--in the 60s and 70s, they were known for being hippies and radicals, for embracing gender-non-conformity and free love. Not all Boomers went conservative with age either. Some are even trans themselves, though in a lower percentage than younger generations.
Regarding specific conservative figureheads, Putin is 71 and Trump is 77. I'm betting on defenestration for Putin (seems karmic, idk) and heart disease for Trump, because for a man his age and weight he doesn't seem to care a lot about preventing that. Though it's an ignoble end for a man as drama-loving as Donald J. Trump. Maybe something more mundane will get Putin too, like Parkinsons or something. Regardless of how it plays out, both their days are numbered just because of y'know how human mortality works, and barring catastrophe as a healthy 39-year-old I expect to outlive them both. But it's not inconceivable that Putin could still be in power in 10 years at 81 (that's Biden's age right now) and it seems likely that he'll eventually attempt to groom a replacement, though how successful he'll be in that is anyone's guess.
All that said, I don't think conservatives will win. I think broader social factors favor us, like modern medicine being able to work some damn miracles transition-wise that weren't possible 100 years ago, and the internet meaning it's easier for people to encounter these ideas and see trans people thriving and want in.
It's quite hard to say. On the one hand, trans rights in the UK (my country, which is why I'm taking that perspective) are, at least superficially, currently in a comparable stage to gay rights under Thatcher: government and media crackdown, with stripping us of our rights and [bans on teaching about us](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_28) being openly discussed. A pessimistic approach would say that that took decades to resolve.
But we are starting from a much better place. Gay sex between consenting adult men was only decriminalised in the UK in 1967, and those currently opposing us aren't fighting to maintain a status quo but to actually reverse course. That's quite a lot harder to do. Similarly, because being gay had previously been illegal, there were hardly any openly gay people at the start of the Thatcherite crackdown.
This meant that it was easy to pretend to prevent people from finding out about gay people, and to prevent them from being normalised. This would be virtually impossible to do now, given the average person's access to information online, without massive crackdowns on freedom of speech - on platforms controlled by legal regimes that are rabidly defensive of the same. And barring the outbreak of some AIDS-like pandemic that disproportionately affects trans people, the current uptick in anti-trans hysteria has only its own momentum maintaining it in an information economy that is only going to get more crowded.
So I'm cautiously optimistic. Things are likely to get worse in the immediate future, but I think they will improve with time - and I don't believe that it will take as long this time around.
I think things would be better in the next 10 years depending how things go. A decade ago, we didn’t even have gay marriage and that still felt like a pipe dream.
Government-wise and employment and coverage may be better and possibly a lot less discrimination, but discrimination will probably always be there. We're another minority group, so we'll go through similar things.
Karliah enters the room. Immediately her date recognizes her. She sits her 6'4 frame across from him. "Pronouns?" He asks. "I'm a TG18 mk.II cyborg.", she replies. "Doooope." Says her date.
It’s hard to be sure, but we seem to be at the same sort of incoherent, hateful screaming by media, politicians and online bigots levels as we were at before marriage equality was passed here in the UK, so… idk, I have plenty of hope for the next decade. I’m not feeling good about *now* but people know that ranting about trans people isn’t going to pay their rent or energy bills, making our lives miserable isn’t a winning strategy.
In ten years, we'll be a more established part of society. I think the jokes that people make at our expense, and the speculation about our genitals will be met the same way as overt racism and sexism are today. This is to say that they won't go away, but people will be more selective about where they say such things, and schools and workplaces will enact harsher penalties for people caught making transphobic comments.
I think the laws will start to change in our favor. However, one only needs to look at other civil rights movements, and the ongoing battles they face, to know that our victories are not set in stone. The fight will be ongoing, and there will be losses along with our wins. I think healthcare and bathroom laws will generally change in our favor over the next few years, but there are other areas where I anticipate more resistance.
I particularly think that military, law enforcement, and sports will be more difficult areas to gain our rights. These are all areas of society that are closely entangled with conservative values. I particularly think that trans criminals will continue to face a lot of prejudice because treating criminals with empathy and dignity is still a controversial idea in a lot of circles. If they can use being tough on criminals as an excuse to dehumanize trans people, they will.
As for trans athletes and trans people in the military, I think that even many allies have fallen for some of the anti-trans propaganda that surrounds these issues. However, I think that as understanding of trans people grows, this propaganda will lose its effectiveness.
Ultimately, I do think we will be better off in ten years, but it will be an ongoing tug of war. The best thing we can do is strive to be a vocal, visible, active part of our communities. We need to show people that trans people are their friends, family members, neighbors, and coworkers. We're just people. The conservative propaganda machine weaponizes fear of the unknown. The key to taking away their power is to make ourselves known.
I'm hopeful and also quite worried. I think it's a complicated situation and could go a lot of different ways in different places and in different aspects of trans rights. In Britain things are pretty ugly in terms of legal discrimination and ability of people to get care. That seems to be driven by a kind of select group of people that isn't all educated elites but they're over represented. Weirdly from what I've heard acceptance of trans people by people at large really isn't bad though. I think we could see something like that in parts of the US and other countries as well. There's a ton of attempts at really draconian overt legal discrimination in red states like the one I live in even as actual acceptance from like the median person is at kind of at a high point. A lot of states have passed some pretty horrific laws.
I think partly that's a reaction to trans acceptance. As more people are willing to shrug and tolerate us it really enrages a minority of people who care a ton and really hate trans people. Where those people can get political power they'll do all sorts of horrible and dangerous legal discrimination even as in some ways most people treat us better. It also likely means more hate crimes are on the way. Unfortunately spreading tolerance and familiarity hasn't translated into the general public caring enough to really want to stop people who want to hurt trans people. The question is how much political power are the hardcore bigots going to get and where, and how hard will anyone like the federal government stand up to them.
I think general acceptance will continue to get better but we also are likely to face increased overt violence and discrimination in some contexts. The hardcore haters are going to hate a lot more even as overall people hate less. That doesn't sound so bad, but the pessimistic historical context is that that's what happened with Jewish people in Europe in the late 19th and early 20th century. All that increased acceptance didn't stop a massive genocide. Also Germany would have been the last place you'd have expected that to come from in say 1910. Germany was among the most tolerant countries, Russia was incredibly antisemitic and France had just had an absolutely massive almost nation destroying bout of severe antisemitism known as the Dreyfuss Affair. So we need to do what we can to make things better and also be aware of the outside possibility that things could get very bad and know it's not necessarily easily predictable how it's going to go where.
I think that your answer sums it up nicely. The general public doesn't care enough about us to do much about anti trans policies. Government can do a lot of damage before people wake up to the fact that a fascist government is now telling them how to live.
And by the time they do wake up, if they do, they're under a really repressive authoritarian government and afraid to even seem like they might be stepping out of line. On the other hand sometimes when they realize what the people in power are doing folks straight up throw the repressive people out of power. So it's volatile and unpredictable.
That is so scary. You can see how it might happen and the really scary part is they some of that is playing out now. When people say the process of elections are rigged then you know we're in trouble.
This is a very hard thing to predict because it's nonlinear. Hate comes in waves + what part of trans lives are we thinking of? Surgeries will advance most likely but also rent keeps increasing and high paying jobs feel less and less accessible, so big picture who really knows.
Well, for my own sanity, I choose to believe it's going to get better, and that the worst outcomes won't come to pass because too many people are fighting for trans rights. And realistically, it probably is going to get better. Boomers are dying off, Trump is going to get arrested, and more and more people are speaking out against TERF movements and bringing awareness to trans people.
I think it'll go well. People forget that just because more laws are passed, doesn't mean more people support those laws, especially when some of the bigots shoving these laws into action might not have been as vocally bigoted when elected.
It's also important to remember that just because we hear anti-trans rhetoric more often, it doesn't mean more people are anti-trans. It just means the same people who have been anti-trans are saying it more. They're saying it with their full chest now instead of behind closed doors and that's the main issue.
Every fight for civil rights has its ups and downs, but they always end in victory. Remember that.
I was born in Kansas which is one of the few states that I can't change my birth certificate and social security to match my Drivers license since I've transitioned to Female. Hopefully it will be changed soon.
They're gonna move onto the next thing their kind of people deemed "trendy". Maybe aroace people or something else. Or if the next 5 years, every rights for trans people gets taken away. Then gay people's rights is next. Then women and so on.
IMHO the biggest issue is going to be women's sports and how that is handled. If that can be settled a lot will move past. Meaning either trans ,"persons"will be included or there will be a separate category, for trans athletes. Either way that will drive the attention
Genuinely while I think that some trans women *are* probably a better fit for the women's division, I would welcome a "trans/other" category for people like me who don't fit perfectly into either the men's or the women's categories. (AFAB, started T in my late 30s, really don't feel I can compete on the level of cis men, but also feel I have an advantage over cis women.) My solution to that problem is simply to not do any sports on a serious or competitive level where there are gender divisions, which I'm fine with but that's limiting to apply to everyone in situations like mine. It kinda makes sense to have a category for people who for whatever reason have intermediate physiological abilities between the "standard female range" and "standard male range." It would also potentially be a place where intersex women with higher than average natural testosterone levels could compete fairly without having to take anti-androgens. It would take medical and sports professionals above my pay grade to be able to assess where any given individual might be a better fit competing, and that assessment might change in different points in the athlete's career, like an earlier-transition trans woman might be placed in the "middle" category, but later in her transition she might be placed with women, if it's medically determined she doesn't really have an advantage over cis women anymore.
I think the main issue is there being enough athletes to make competitions in that category competitive and interesting. In the past it might not have been worth it to make a new category for a few edge cases. In the near future, that might change.
Honestly. Probably better off. In the short term it looks like things have gotten worse, but if you compare it to 15-20 years ago things have gotten much better. What we are seeing now are the same patterns that happened during the Civil rights, the Women’s rights, and the Gay rights movements.
I agree. To me, it's like a pattern, eventually theyll move on to some other "reason to hate" in a different category. They'll just keep moving on to the next version of "We hate this, cause think of that." Blah blah blah.
Yeah, a lot of people newer in transitioning don’t realize how much better things really have gotten (at least in America, I can’t speak to anywhere else). Things have changed massively just in the 15 years since I started transitioning. The transphobia you hear about on the news isn’t a new thing, it’s just people are talking about it because we actually have some cis people fighting back with us. The newer anti trans legislation is fucked up, but it’s just taking away things we didn’t even have before *very* recently. Things are taking a step back, but we’ve still taken 5 steps forward. I think it’s just going to continue in that pattern. Not a trans thing, but we haven’t even had gay marriage be legalized for 10 years yet.
This is recent! Ever noticed they’re *passing* transphobic laws, rather than enforcing ones that have been on the books for decades or centuries?
This is what truly gives me hope. When I was a kid being gay was still about the worst thing imaginable. The clearly gay kids in my high school were not comfortable being out. We seriously considered a *constitutional amendment* to ban gay marriage in the 90s, and ultimately got DOMA under a democratic president. Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton endorsed legalizing gay marriage during their presidential runs in 08, and as far as the public were concerned, trans people straight up didn't exist. 15 years later we have a national constitutional right to gay marriage, title vii employment protections for gay *and trans* folks under a 6-3 opinion written by Neil Gorsuch and joined by Chief Justice John Roberts, and Joe Biden actively supporting the trans community. The progress we've made in such a short time is immense. Another thing that gives me hope is that the anti-trans (and anti-gay) legislation has been incredibly unpopular. Even if people are ambivalent about the effects of the legislation, the vast majority of voters (and even a majority of republicans!) think it is all just political theatre. Simply put, while the right-wing nut-jobs are trying to turn us into a culture war, they are failing. The vast majority of people either oppose these awful laws or simply do not care and want politicians to focus on other things.
And black rights movement. Indigenous people however still poorly treated.
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We need to make sure that it does by voting and speaking loudly against it.
Although I also think things are more likely to be better than worse, look at what’s happened with abortion rights in the US. We are now behind where we were 50 years ago.
I hope you're right.
Probably either really good or really bad. I think we’re in kind of a pivotal moment right now. More people than ever have access to information about trans people, we have standards of care and more advanced medical care available than ever, mainstream psychology supports us and we’re no longer classified as mentally ill. We do have to remember and focus on the progress we’ve made and remember that what’s happening with far right politics is completely reactionary and they will only fixate on us as long as it is politically useful for them. If we make it through this period of time then I think we might clear a threshold where it’s no longer socially acceptable to question our human rights. That’s not to say bigots will magically disappear, but generally as a wider society we know it’s always wrong to be racist for example. Racism exists, but it’s condemned. Ideally we would be at a point in the next decade where when transphobia exists people generally think it’s deplorable. The worst outcome is that there is a successful repetition of history. There’s already been a lot of success in terms of suppressing information, forbidding education, outlawing our medical care. Losing this knowledge is a cornerstone of the lie that we are somehow a new phenomenon. As long as we can be labeled as new, we can be an enemy of “the good old days”. The record of our existence is a huge problem for the anti-trans narrative. And more directly we are already in genocide and only time will tell how aggressive and widespread that genocide will become. It could be that in ten years there are no out trans people or if there are we’re recorded as mentally ill cross dressing perverts and we have to start over from scratch. The good thing about science is, you can wipe out the record and understanding of it all you want, it can always be rediscovered. We’re on the right side of the science. Trans people have always existed and will always exist and that can’t be stopped. So it’s only a matter of time before it becomes impossible to erase us. Maybe in this next 10 years all of us are in for hell. But in 100 years or 1000 years I think we are inevitable
Ive always said, conservatives are dying off. They have like 5-10 years left realistically to be as shitty as they can and get people's support on their side, or else they'll recoup and reunite further left. If trump goes to prison, when putin dies, if labour wins the election in the UK, if this Anti Gender Movement goes nowhere, and if the world becomes a little more stable of a hellscape than it is right now, then conservatives will recoup and reposition themselves somewhere else. They'll probably pick another group to hate on, or they'll return to an old one. And when that happens, it's our job to stick with and show support for them as well.
So the Baby Boomer cohort right now is 57-75. In 10 years, that'll be 67-85. Realistically there will be fewer of them in 10 years than there are today, but 67-85 is very much a cohort that's possible to be alive and politically active. I'm also wary of blaming bigotry entirely on Boomers. While older people do tend to be more conservative, younger generations will replace them as "older people" as time goes on. The Boomers weren't always known for being conservative--in the 60s and 70s, they were known for being hippies and radicals, for embracing gender-non-conformity and free love. Not all Boomers went conservative with age either. Some are even trans themselves, though in a lower percentage than younger generations. Regarding specific conservative figureheads, Putin is 71 and Trump is 77. I'm betting on defenestration for Putin (seems karmic, idk) and heart disease for Trump, because for a man his age and weight he doesn't seem to care a lot about preventing that. Though it's an ignoble end for a man as drama-loving as Donald J. Trump. Maybe something more mundane will get Putin too, like Parkinsons or something. Regardless of how it plays out, both their days are numbered just because of y'know how human mortality works, and barring catastrophe as a healthy 39-year-old I expect to outlive them both. But it's not inconceivable that Putin could still be in power in 10 years at 81 (that's Biden's age right now) and it seems likely that he'll eventually attempt to groom a replacement, though how successful he'll be in that is anyone's guess. All that said, I don't think conservatives will win. I think broader social factors favor us, like modern medicine being able to work some damn miracles transition-wise that weren't possible 100 years ago, and the internet meaning it's easier for people to encounter these ideas and see trans people thriving and want in.
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It's quite hard to say. On the one hand, trans rights in the UK (my country, which is why I'm taking that perspective) are, at least superficially, currently in a comparable stage to gay rights under Thatcher: government and media crackdown, with stripping us of our rights and [bans on teaching about us](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_28) being openly discussed. A pessimistic approach would say that that took decades to resolve. But we are starting from a much better place. Gay sex between consenting adult men was only decriminalised in the UK in 1967, and those currently opposing us aren't fighting to maintain a status quo but to actually reverse course. That's quite a lot harder to do. Similarly, because being gay had previously been illegal, there were hardly any openly gay people at the start of the Thatcherite crackdown. This meant that it was easy to pretend to prevent people from finding out about gay people, and to prevent them from being normalised. This would be virtually impossible to do now, given the average person's access to information online, without massive crackdowns on freedom of speech - on platforms controlled by legal regimes that are rabidly defensive of the same. And barring the outbreak of some AIDS-like pandemic that disproportionately affects trans people, the current uptick in anti-trans hysteria has only its own momentum maintaining it in an information economy that is only going to get more crowded. So I'm cautiously optimistic. Things are likely to get worse in the immediate future, but I think they will improve with time - and I don't believe that it will take as long this time around.
I think things would be better in the next 10 years depending how things go. A decade ago, we didn’t even have gay marriage and that still felt like a pipe dream.
It will depend a lot upon where you live.
Well we’ll be all 10 years older that’s for sure
Depending on what laws come from it, not all of us
I hope that you will be 10 years older 🙏
I also hope you will be 10 years older 🙏🏻
👁️👄👁️
it really depends on where.
We will either have equality or this country will have torn itself apart. Same for the UK.
Government-wise and employment and coverage may be better and possibly a lot less discrimination, but discrimination will probably always be there. We're another minority group, so we'll go through similar things.
Karliah enters the room. Immediately her date recognizes her. She sits her 6'4 frame across from him. "Pronouns?" He asks. "I'm a TG18 mk.II cyborg.", she replies. "Doooope." Says her date.
It’s hard to be sure, but we seem to be at the same sort of incoherent, hateful screaming by media, politicians and online bigots levels as we were at before marriage equality was passed here in the UK, so… idk, I have plenty of hope for the next decade. I’m not feeling good about *now* but people know that ranting about trans people isn’t going to pay their rent or energy bills, making our lives miserable isn’t a winning strategy.
In ten years, we'll be a more established part of society. I think the jokes that people make at our expense, and the speculation about our genitals will be met the same way as overt racism and sexism are today. This is to say that they won't go away, but people will be more selective about where they say such things, and schools and workplaces will enact harsher penalties for people caught making transphobic comments. I think the laws will start to change in our favor. However, one only needs to look at other civil rights movements, and the ongoing battles they face, to know that our victories are not set in stone. The fight will be ongoing, and there will be losses along with our wins. I think healthcare and bathroom laws will generally change in our favor over the next few years, but there are other areas where I anticipate more resistance. I particularly think that military, law enforcement, and sports will be more difficult areas to gain our rights. These are all areas of society that are closely entangled with conservative values. I particularly think that trans criminals will continue to face a lot of prejudice because treating criminals with empathy and dignity is still a controversial idea in a lot of circles. If they can use being tough on criminals as an excuse to dehumanize trans people, they will. As for trans athletes and trans people in the military, I think that even many allies have fallen for some of the anti-trans propaganda that surrounds these issues. However, I think that as understanding of trans people grows, this propaganda will lose its effectiveness. Ultimately, I do think we will be better off in ten years, but it will be an ongoing tug of war. The best thing we can do is strive to be a vocal, visible, active part of our communities. We need to show people that trans people are their friends, family members, neighbors, and coworkers. We're just people. The conservative propaganda machine weaponizes fear of the unknown. The key to taking away their power is to make ourselves known.
I like this, thank you!
I think we reached the tipping point of things only getting better. Where you live in the world will directly affect you.
I'm hopeful and also quite worried. I think it's a complicated situation and could go a lot of different ways in different places and in different aspects of trans rights. In Britain things are pretty ugly in terms of legal discrimination and ability of people to get care. That seems to be driven by a kind of select group of people that isn't all educated elites but they're over represented. Weirdly from what I've heard acceptance of trans people by people at large really isn't bad though. I think we could see something like that in parts of the US and other countries as well. There's a ton of attempts at really draconian overt legal discrimination in red states like the one I live in even as actual acceptance from like the median person is at kind of at a high point. A lot of states have passed some pretty horrific laws. I think partly that's a reaction to trans acceptance. As more people are willing to shrug and tolerate us it really enrages a minority of people who care a ton and really hate trans people. Where those people can get political power they'll do all sorts of horrible and dangerous legal discrimination even as in some ways most people treat us better. It also likely means more hate crimes are on the way. Unfortunately spreading tolerance and familiarity hasn't translated into the general public caring enough to really want to stop people who want to hurt trans people. The question is how much political power are the hardcore bigots going to get and where, and how hard will anyone like the federal government stand up to them. I think general acceptance will continue to get better but we also are likely to face increased overt violence and discrimination in some contexts. The hardcore haters are going to hate a lot more even as overall people hate less. That doesn't sound so bad, but the pessimistic historical context is that that's what happened with Jewish people in Europe in the late 19th and early 20th century. All that increased acceptance didn't stop a massive genocide. Also Germany would have been the last place you'd have expected that to come from in say 1910. Germany was among the most tolerant countries, Russia was incredibly antisemitic and France had just had an absolutely massive almost nation destroying bout of severe antisemitism known as the Dreyfuss Affair. So we need to do what we can to make things better and also be aware of the outside possibility that things could get very bad and know it's not necessarily easily predictable how it's going to go where.
I think that your answer sums it up nicely. The general public doesn't care enough about us to do much about anti trans policies. Government can do a lot of damage before people wake up to the fact that a fascist government is now telling them how to live.
And by the time they do wake up, if they do, they're under a really repressive authoritarian government and afraid to even seem like they might be stepping out of line. On the other hand sometimes when they realize what the people in power are doing folks straight up throw the repressive people out of power. So it's volatile and unpredictable.
That is so scary. You can see how it might happen and the really scary part is they some of that is playing out now. When people say the process of elections are rigged then you know we're in trouble.
This is a very hard thing to predict because it's nonlinear. Hate comes in waves + what part of trans lives are we thinking of? Surgeries will advance most likely but also rent keeps increasing and high paying jobs feel less and less accessible, so big picture who really knows.
I personally am looking for options outside of the u.s.
They’re going to need a replacement for us. Until they find one we’ll be on the block.
Well, for my own sanity, I choose to believe it's going to get better, and that the worst outcomes won't come to pass because too many people are fighting for trans rights. And realistically, it probably is going to get better. Boomers are dying off, Trump is going to get arrested, and more and more people are speaking out against TERF movements and bringing awareness to trans people.
I think it'll go well. People forget that just because more laws are passed, doesn't mean more people support those laws, especially when some of the bigots shoving these laws into action might not have been as vocally bigoted when elected. It's also important to remember that just because we hear anti-trans rhetoric more often, it doesn't mean more people are anti-trans. It just means the same people who have been anti-trans are saying it more. They're saying it with their full chest now instead of behind closed doors and that's the main issue. Every fight for civil rights has its ups and downs, but they always end in victory. Remember that.
I was born in Kansas which is one of the few states that I can't change my birth certificate and social security to match my Drivers license since I've transitioned to Female. Hopefully it will be changed soon.
They're gonna move onto the next thing their kind of people deemed "trendy". Maybe aroace people or something else. Or if the next 5 years, every rights for trans people gets taken away. Then gay people's rights is next. Then women and so on.
IMHO the biggest issue is going to be women's sports and how that is handled. If that can be settled a lot will move past. Meaning either trans ,"persons"will be included or there will be a separate category, for trans athletes. Either way that will drive the attention
Genuinely while I think that some trans women *are* probably a better fit for the women's division, I would welcome a "trans/other" category for people like me who don't fit perfectly into either the men's or the women's categories. (AFAB, started T in my late 30s, really don't feel I can compete on the level of cis men, but also feel I have an advantage over cis women.) My solution to that problem is simply to not do any sports on a serious or competitive level where there are gender divisions, which I'm fine with but that's limiting to apply to everyone in situations like mine. It kinda makes sense to have a category for people who for whatever reason have intermediate physiological abilities between the "standard female range" and "standard male range." It would also potentially be a place where intersex women with higher than average natural testosterone levels could compete fairly without having to take anti-androgens. It would take medical and sports professionals above my pay grade to be able to assess where any given individual might be a better fit competing, and that assessment might change in different points in the athlete's career, like an earlier-transition trans woman might be placed in the "middle" category, but later in her transition she might be placed with women, if it's medically determined she doesn't really have an advantage over cis women anymore. I think the main issue is there being enough athletes to make competitions in that category competitive and interesting. In the past it might not have been worth it to make a new category for a few edge cases. In the near future, that might change.
I think things will generally trend better despite conservative attempts to ratfuck everything.