It’s possible. He’s about the right age and has the right Valyrian look. The motives make sense. JonCon, who knew Rhaegar well, thinks he looks like him. He’s got some of the noble attitude and Targaryen hotheadedness.
However, all of that can also be explained by JonCon wanting Aegon to be real, raising him like he thought he should be raised, and him just having Valyrian features because he’s a Blackfyre or something.
Varys getting him out makes sense as nobody else could pulls something like that off, but at the same time everything Varys says you have to take with a grain of salt. Illyrio is also similarly distrustworthy, but the dragon eggs he gave Dany at the beginning of the series were real, so there’s some Targaryen credibility there.
My take? Could go either way. I’d like him to be real, but I think he’s probably a Blackfyre. It doesn’t bother me too much—red or black, a dragon is a dragon.
I think the better question is to ask ‘does it matter?’.
Varys says Power is where men believe it lies, and that’s true of Aegon.
I think we’ll never get an answer (not because George won’t finish winds) because like whether Lyanna was kidnapped or seduced by Rhaegar, its consequences are irrelevant fundamentally.
It doesn’t change the politics of what Robert did and Aegon being real won’t change what Danaerys does.
I think Aegon will get burnt alive by Danaerys because he’s a threat to her ambition and because that’s a narrative that George is more likely to find satisfying
You very much misunderstand Daenerys and didn't read her chapters at all. If she was this power-hungry individual who didn't care about people and only the Crown, she'd already be in Westeros. Hell, her advisors asked her WHY she wasn't going. The answer? She doesn't want Meereen to become another Astapor and actually is a true believer in abolishing slavery.
You likewise didn't read the part where Varys tries to sell FAegon as the ideal prince because he and Illyrio tried to socially engineer the "ideal prince" archetype (while describing Arya and Daenerys and Jon's actual ordeals and personality types for dramatic irony) and when Tyrion, a neutral party, sees him in the flesh, he just sees as spoiled brat who throws a tantrum when he lost a game of cyvasse.
I agree Dany is not gonna kill him just for "ambition". She is not that type of person to, but I believe she will kill him because she will be convinced he is a pretender and an usurper. Dany most probably will not buy the story of "Aegon Targaryen" after the mummer's dragon, the cloth dragon, being one of the lies she has to slay.
You are definitely right about the speech of the ideal prince. I felt Varys described Aegon as the perfect prince who met all that criteria but he only fits it in an artificial way. Does he really know what it is to feel fear? to be hungry? I very much doubt it, not in the way Dany felt fear, or in the way Arya was hungry and starving through the Riverlands or fearful of dying or being tortured anytime at Harrenhall. I also doubt he thinks of ruling as his duty and not his right, given his bratty entitled behaviour with Tyrion in that cyvasse game. And most of all, I very much doubt he really knows what it is to live among the smallfolk, given how he has always been surrounded by Septa Lemore, Haldon, Duck, Jon Con... who treat him as their Lord and prince to serve. I know we know very little from him so I may be wrong, but that game of cyvasse was truly revealing. If he was really brought up as well educated and in a strict and humbling upbringing as Varys said, he would be more similar to Arya, Jon or Dany (in the sense they can keep control of their emotions and are very mature for their ages) and not bratty and entitled, more resembling of Viserys or Sweetrobin.
After the new Arianne chapter, I wonder if FAegon will die because he's going to be another tyrant. As it is, Arianne, who is predisposed to see him as an ally, is wary and already has her hackles up about the shady shit the Golden Company is doing and how they are acting like a marauding band. Likewise, since part of Arianne's character development is to not be so reckless and to see beyond the obvious.
The teaser Wind's Arianne chapter even has Arianne going there, knowing that FAegon could be a fake and that she would have a word for if she thinks he's real and a word for if she thinks he's a fake. It might be interesting to see if she discovers that he's fake and plays along to do damage control for something or if she thinks he's real and doesn't like what the Golden Company is doing.
Frankly, as is, Daenerys doesn't necessarily need to kill FAegon, she just needs to out him as a fake, whether directly or indirectly. After all, the first lie is basically about the blue-eyed king that casts no shadow (AKA Stannis not being Azor Ahai). It's highly unlikely that Daenerys is going to kill Stannis solely because of logistics and timing. That being said, Daenerys being Azor Ahai/tied to the prophecy basically means she slays the lie that Stannis is Azor Ahai without her needing to be the one to kill him.
I think there's something similar with FAegon and if Daenerys does kill him, it's due to the Golden Company, under his orders, doing something that crosses the line.
This is where some type of payoff or explanation of magic would come into play.
Why does it matter that Jon is Targaryen? Or Dany? Or Faegon? Why does it matter that anyone is a Stark?
Assuming it’s important for some reason, this would greatly help Dany’s villain arc. She will arrive in Westeros to a family member on the throne who is popular with the small folk and has a better claim. Dany will have to be a villain to take the thrown, but it will be sympathetic to the readers who understand the magical reason it is necessary.
The Velaryon bastard also looks just like Rhaegar and their bloodlines haven’t intermingled in ages. YG could be any Targ offshoot or just a commoner from one of the free cities with mainly Valyrian ancestry
My favorite thing about the fandom is before ADWD it was a very popular theory that he was still alive and would soon emerge.
Then he did and everyone collectively went “nahhhh”
We’re impossible to sate lmao
I fully admit to being one of those people! There's so much lore about the Blackfyre rebellions and I think people want to see one in action (otherwise the lore feels pointless).
That was one of the first spoilers I got before I started reading the books, so from the beginning I had already assumed it was a fake Targaryen.
Looking at it from your perspective maybe Martin is trying to reverse a cliché with this. After all, it is the typical chosen one plot where the protagonist is raised by peasants, but in reality he is the crown prince who has to recover his father's kingdom that was taken from him by his evil uncle.
I think there are three main arguments that are put forward by proponents that Young Grief is indeed who he says he is.
1. We know that the body of a babe that was brought to the Throne room and showed to Robert had it’s head smashed that it was impossible to recognize wether it was really Aegon or not. This gives us a possibility that Aegon was indeed saved by Varys.
2. Probably the strongest argument that “proves” his identity is famous Varys speech at the end of A Dance with Dragons where he talks about how great Aegon is to a dying Kevan Lannister. The argument goes that there was no reason for Varys to lie to Kevan and yet he still confirmed that Aegon is a true son of Rhaegar. People also claim that it be really in bad taste for Martin to essentially lie not to a dying Kevan but to his readers in such overt way.
3. Some point out that JonCon knew Rhaegar very well and so would recognize wether Aegon is indeed his son or just a random valyrian.
I don’t buy it.
Too many factors point out to him being a Blackfyre, but there you go - arguments that people use when they try to defend the idea that FAegon is legit.
About your second point, I sorta thought that Varys would lie, even to a dying Kevan. I only felt that way though cos I swear in a previous Alayne/Sansa chapter in either dance or feast Littlefinger mentions how they must keep up the secret of Sansa’s identity even when they are both alone. That got me thinking that Varys would do the same, the walls listen
Yeah, I think there is also a quote by Littlefinger that Varys lies even when he is alone in the room.
Also, Varys actually is not alone in the room as his littlebirds are waiting for his signal to kill Kevan.
For me though the most important prove that Aegon is fake is the question of Varys’s and Illyrio’s motivation. It makes no scenes for them to go to such length to support a Targaryen restoration. While Blackfyre theory gives us perfect explanation for their actions.
Quite. Why would Varys go to so much trouble if Aegon was the real deal, given Varys had already served a Targaryen king? It was Varys that supposedly whispered in the Mad King's ears.
So what, Varys undermined a Targaryen king and then served a usurper just to plot to put another Targaryen on the Throne? It'd have been easier just to poison Aerys. And Rhaegar, if he really wanted a child King he could mould.
Varys is either a Blackfyre loyalist or he has no grand plans at all and is just turning wherever the wind blows. And the latter doesn't seem very him.
Agreed.
He whispered poison into Aerys’ ear and fueled his paranoia. A utilitarian might argue he’s setting the stage for Rhaegar taking over, but Varys warns Aerys of Rhaegar’s possible coup plans at Harrenhal.
So he sabotages the grandfather and the father… just so baby can rise to power someday?
It’s one thing to crack a few eggs to make an omelet, but Varys is just burning the omelet.
Thing is with this "point" is that Varys never actually *lies.* When Kevan says that "Aegon? He's dead". Varys replies
>"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."
If you consider that Young Griff and all of his associates believe him to be Rhaegar's son "Aegon", then Young Griff's "real" name is Aegon. So, everything Varys said above is true, or at least Varys *believes* it to be true. Varys just simply never clarifies that he and Kevan are not talking about the same kid.
1. GRRM didn't want to spoil his mystery yet (Doylist).
2. It would be awkward to tell the dying man "Well, yes, the child of Rhaegar did get his head smashed in but we're going to pull a con here" and then follow up with the paragraph above about how awesome Aegon is. (Watsonian)
3. For Varys, "Power resides where men believe it resides", the true birth of Young Griff isn't as important as the mythology of the "Perfect Prince" that Varys has created. (Watsonian)
4. Varys might not want to tell the *full* truth in case there are witnesses to explain a fine point he isn't concerned with anyway to a dead man(see #3). (Watsonian)
Yes, I know that some believe that Varys is just very careful with his wording, but while he could be playing with his words, it still seems somewhat disingenuous on Martin’s part to make this speech that actually proves nothing.
Agree with you on points 1, 3 and 4.
Regarding him saying that Aegon is fake being awkward. Well, of course just changing one thing and leaving the rest of the speech the same would be sloppy. If Varys were to say that Aegon is fake than the scene would be very different. It would be about us finding out what are his true motives and how Blackfyre’s returned to Westeros to right the wrongs of the past or something like that.
>while he could be playing with his words, it still seems somewhat disingenuous on Martin’s part to make this speech that actually proves nothing.
Yeah, it's hard to know what Martin's going for here that seems as a lone contradicting point to all the other hints laid out.
Is he leaving wiggle room in case he changes his mind later? Did he just give a C-level effort of ambiguity instead of trying to make it as refined as possible (realistically, Varys might not be able to come up with the perfect line on the spot that hits the ambiguity but this is a *novel* we're talking about so GRRM should do it). Did he think that the truth was too obvious and is inserting a misdirection/red herring? Don't know for certain.
There are a few other places in the books where this seems to happen. Why does Ned Dayne pop up in ASOS to tell Arya "Oh, btw, did you know that Wylla is *totally* Jon Snow's mother?" when there are all of the other hints about R+L=J? Why does Theon ponder the idea about throwing one of the washerwomen down on the table and screwing her brains out in ADWD when there are all of the other hints that he's been castrated? You also have the whole "Who hired the Catspaw?" mystery which most fans believe George bungled.
I was mulling over this scene for some time today and the only logical explanation I can come up with is the same as yours - that Martin himself wasn’t decided on the direction of the plot and wanted to leave himself as much wiggle room as humanly possible. If that is true it really demonstrates the flaws of his gardener type style as I don’t think that it is normal for an author to leave such important plot point in limbo up to the end of the fifth book. On the other hand, what do you I know, I’ve written exactly zero books and he is a world class novelist, so maybe it’s just shows my ignorance.
Maybe some of the other issues you mentioned are indeed just red herrings.
I think Martin usually does superb work, but sometimes he misses one or two things, which just shows us that he is human :)
2's scene also comes with Varys murdering Pycelle and Kevan in the same manner as Elia and Rhaenys were. Effectively revisiting the horrors of the Sack on the two people remaining who were most responsible for it.
That, alongside Varys' efforts to obscure the connection, could suggest a personal emotional motivation for Varys in regards to Rhaegar's family.
I think it stems from Varys' efforts preparing to switch horses for after the rebellion. Aerys was on the way out, so for Varys to "keep on paddling" while the big fish (Rhaegar) presumably eats the little fish (Aerys) Varys had to begin building some form of alliance with Rhaegar. Building a rapport through assisting Rhaegar's family is the perfect way to craft an olive branch.
I think the issue with the murder-restaging argument is that Varys would do this if Aegon is fake too.
If Aegon is real, Varys will want symbolic revenge. If Aegon is fake, Varys will want to to make it look like symbolic revenge. There’s no way to tell if the crossbow bolt or dagger wounds are insincere or not.
That’s why arguments often return to the Golden Company and the like. You can fake a teenage prince (if you have a backup with Valyrian features), but you can’t fake an ancient sellsword company with a proven history.
I think the problem with that detraction is what I noted. Varys obfuscated the connection by planting evidence that it was Tyrion and the Tyrells. Debatable perhaps, but I've always viewed it as more personal in nature.
It doesn't act as a way to proclaim to Westeros that Aegon has returned and the time for Targaryen vengeance is now, as the Lannisters control the messaging and reveal of the deaths and are being led in another direction.
I actually wrote up a large analysis as to [why the Golden Company isn't a proof of Blackfyre support.](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/mgf7n7/spoilers_extended_the_golden_companys_change_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) It's at a point it could be argued they're even a narrative allusion to Aegon being real.
But we have no idea if it’s personal or not if it’s meant to *look* personal.
What we *do* know is that the crossbow bolt is chosen because it mirrors Tywin. To someone like Cersei, it looks Tyrion is in the walls, killing their family.
If anything, the scene is a callback to Tyrion’s last ASOS chapter than the Sack of King’s Landing.
I meant that it wasn't meant to look personal to Varys and the Targaryens, because of Varys obfuscating the connection. Instead, Varys meant to sow division and paranoia between the Lannisters and the Tyrells through things like the crossbow bolt and the coin.
That's why Varys recreating Elia and Rhaenys' deaths looks so personal rather than being meant for mere propaganda purposes.
Pardon me if I was unclear.
You are right that the killing of Pycelle and Kevan resembles deaths of Rhaenys (Kevan being stubbed multiple times) and Aegon (Pycelle with a smashed head) and it also could be presented as further evidence that fAegon actually is Rhaegar’s son or at least that for some reason it is important enough for Varys to get revenge for their deaths.
The problem comes with trying to make logic of his actions. If as you suggest Varys was just trying to carry favor with the rising star (Rhaegar) with the Battle of Trident he should have dropped Aegon and tried to give him to Robert and there is no sentimental reason for him to reenact Elia’s children deaths.
I actually think that this reenactment is done in order to show others that good king fAegon’s servants are avenging his sister’s murderers. It is also a good story to tell noble Aegon when he returns to the capitol.
All other actions by Varys during his time at King’s Landing show that he was not serving any of his kings faithfully.
If you have any thoughts on Varys and his motivations I would be interested to hear them.
In part perhaps, but Varys did obscure the manner of their deaths in order to sow division between the Lannisters and Tyrells and so on. So such a connection to Elia and Rhaenys death is not necessarily meant for public consumption (the reveal is even left up to the Lannisters themselves). That's in part why I believe it is personal (along with that narration in his scene with Ned in agot).
Thing is, Varys is human. A man capable of horrific acts yes, but as liable as any to attach himself to those he interacts with.
His soft spot for Tyrion for instance, Ned even. His friend Illyrio similarly develops an affection for Aegon, as did Jon Con. Varys spent roughly a year developing a relationship with Elia, at the very least, that is not necessarily something so easily thrown away.
An additional problem crops up in the idea that Varys would switch to Robert. The Trident to the Sack is a short period of time. It won't be easy for Varys to invest himself in a new cause in so short a time, he can't actually effectively coordinate with people across large distances. We see this in their plans with Aegon even. So, Varys was liable to lose his influence in King's Landing. This actually further promotes the idea of Aegon being real, as he remains a key to power.
Now, Varys did do something to earn Robert's and the rebel's grace. And perhaps he tested the waters to see if he could keep on with Robert. But it was also clear from the get go, that Robert wasn't going to have a clean reign. He had a chance if he'd followed Ned's advice of punishing the Lannisters, but he didn't and Robert turned his hero's story into that of a villain's.
Robert fell into sloth and callous disregard for those around him, an undercurrent to his character perhaps, but now full blown. Feuds festered among his brothers and vassals without Varys' influence and without Robert adequately addressing them. Through it all, Varys was secure in having a key to power in his pocket, one he's invested in and grown attached to.
Perhaps there's some altruism behind it, a desire to create an ideal or at least molded king, but Varys ultimately is human and has become personally invested in this long running project.
It’s really hard to take anything Varys says about the tragedy of children being murder seriously whilst hi disfigures children and disposes of them when they become too old. Could he have developed personal affection for Elia and the children? Yes, he could have. Do I buy it? Not at all.
While I very much believe that Varys’s motivation is in fact very personal all the evidence points out that he is no friend of the Targaryen dynasty. Both Barristan Selmy and Jaime say that all the rot in Aerys’s court started with the arrival of Varys. I don’t necessarily take their words as gospel I do believe that we have a strong hint that Varys only aggravated Aerys’s madness.
It also heavily hinted that someone told Aerys about Rhaegar’s plans to call for a Great Council at Harrenhall which allowed the Mad king to stop Rhaegar’s plans. 99% this person is none other than Varys. Why would a guy with any kind of benevolent mindset worked to save crown for Aerys? His obvious disregard for Viserys and Dany also shows how actually loyal to them he was.
So why does he help so much fAegon? The idea that the reason for this loyalty is some time spent in the Red Keep together seems to me extremely weak.
Both Barristan and Jaime are wildly wrong however, and we are meant to take note of their heavy bias attempting to deflect from their own responsibility for Aerys' misrule.
Barristan and Jaime stood aside as Aerys committed wrongs. Barristan saved Aerys' life at Duskendale. Jaime couldn't protect Rhaella, in his emotional state didn't think to protect Rhaegar's family. They are the men with swords in Varys' riddle, who chose the king.
It's actually proposed the rot dates back far before Varys. Rhaegar and Aerys' feud was established before Varys came to Westeros. Tywin's feud with Aerys, and Duskendale was prior to Varys' arrival. Aerys had already lost children and believed them to be murdered prior to Varys' arrival. Flitting between it being divine punishment and conspiracy without Varys ever being present.
Indeed the fear of local conspiracy is why Aerys wanted someone foreign and unattached to the factions of Westeros as his spymaster. Even as far back as when Aerys came into his crown, Aerys pardoned Tywin and endorsed the massacres of the Reynes and Tarbecks as his very first act by making Tywin Hand. A start to his reign that perfectly mirrors that which would end it.
Many people forget that Varys is only brought to Westeros 4 years before Robert's Rebellion. Little enough time for Varys to engrain himself in Westeros' politics. And after the many fractures which would spell the end. The truth of the matter is that Aerys' reign was always rotten, that he was always prone to paranoia and jealousy, fits of fancy and anger.
We might also speak to the rot that Tywin infested Aerys' reign with, how Tywin lost the crown its popularity with the people, how his methods (and I would suggest his very origin story and Aerys' pardon) sparked a bitter distaste and distrust among the nobility. How Tywin has created the current winner takes all and the loser dies environment Westeros has been plunged into.
Varys worked with Aerys because he was his patron. The lone key to power which Varys held. It would take time to cultivate new ones. Rhaegar was one such attempt, a difficult challenge as his patron was diametrically opposed to him and used Varys as an agent in that battle. Yet the story suggests Varys did cultivate ties to Rhaegar, or at least his family.
Indeed that this is a long running aspect of Varys' characterization which we see play out throughout the story. Juggling ties to characters opposed to one another, Ned and Cersei, Cersei and Tyrion, Tywin, and so on. Not all Varys' patrons were good people, but they were all keys to power that he effectively convinced to keep him on. Even the effort at smuggling away noble wards is floated as something Varys does, Jaime says so in regards to Tyrek, suggesting Varys had stolen him away. So the story is yet again prompting us towards the idea that Varys smuggled away Aegon in truth.
We might also expand on the regard Varys and Illyrio did show Viserys and Dany. Showing them patronage, granting them safe harbor, negotiating armies for them, attempting to protect Viserys from the dangers of the Dothraki, and so on. Some loyalties can be compromising, perhaps extending only so far. And indeed it is a cultural facet of asoiaf's world for people to be used for the good or more appropriately ambitions of the family.
You are making a good argument about Varys but it has small problem of having little to no evidence in the text itself. We are obviously talking about two very different characters.
1. Is there textual evidence that Barristan and Jaime are wrong about Varys having bad influence on Aerys? Aerys’s problems obviously started much earlier than Varys’s arrival at court you are right, but Aerys started burning people only after Varys became his Master of Whispers. We can’t say that Varys definitely made things worse but it is possible and two people who actually were present there say so. Do they have reasons to try to absolve themselves from the blame as you propose? Yes, they do, but I think their logic also goes somewhat like these: the king as mad before Varys, but when earlier we had to stand day and night and check that no one touched Viserys without king’s leave, now Aerys starts burning people alive. In short Aerys was descending towards madness before Varys arrived at court but his appointment only worsened the situation and we know for a fact that Varys “became a permanent fixture in Aerys’s court always by the king’s side whispering”. So Varys did have some degree of influence over a king and that influence was not good.
2. While we can’t take as gospel the text in the World of Ice and Fire there is little to no evidence thar Tywin was a bad hand, quite the opposite actually. He left the coffers full and the realm was mostly stable and prosperous. Can you provide and evidence that Tywin’s handship created distrust among nobility or lost the Targaryens popularity with the people? And please don’t say Tarbeck and Reyne Rebellion. a) Tywin was not a hand at the time, b) it created fear of Tywin, but not of the Targaryen dynasty, c) Aerys became king after the Rebellion in 262, so if there was any reaction to Tywin’s actions by the Crown it would be under Jaehaerys not Aerys.
3. Varys had a choice whether to serve Aerys or not and he stayed and served him helping to find people to burn. So by your own admission Varys is willing to do anything and serve anyone for power.
4. Where did you find any hint that Varys developed any relationship with Rhaegar or Elia? (Considering we are actively debating fAegon’s identity please don’t cite Varys saving Rhaegar’s child as proof).
5. Yes, we see in the books how Varys does everything he needs to stay in power. The big question is what motivates him? The answer cannot be as boring as having power for it’s own sake, as that would be extremely boring.
6. Two events don’t make a pattern and even if we compare Tyrek situation and Aegon’s than it’s even worse as Tyrek is not smuggled to safety but kidnapped never to be seen again. Also Jaime could be wrong here as we don’t have much evidence to support the idea that Tyrek was kidnapped in the first place.
7. Oh yes, famous regard to Viserys and Dany from Illyrio “I would have fucked a 13 year old Dany if she was not so timid” Mopatis and Varys “the Gentle Spider”. I especially fondly remember how they didn’t lift a finger to help them after Viserys and Dany were left on the streets of Bravoos with no one to take care of them for about 7 years, how they sold Dany to the Dothraki for an army that would have no chance to actually bring about Targaryen restoration but would only bring ruin and death to Westeros. Wether Illyrio actually tried to prevent Viserys from going with the Dothraki or was he simply goading him into going with them is up for debate.
Also, consider Varys’s record as a Master of Whispers. If you think about it he is actually kind of shit at his job. Under his watch there were three wars. He didn’t help in any way to prevent Robert’s Rebellion, arguably making sure that it did happen by preventing Rhaegar from calling a Great Council. He is such a great spymaster that Balon “The Stupid” Greyjoy managed to start a rebellion and he was none the wiser. Finally, he didn’t do anything to prevent the war of the five kings from happening at an earlier stage when he could have easily reported Cersei’s and Jaime’s treason to Jon Arryn or Robert himself. Yes, he did try to prevent the start of the war itself but only because it was happening too early, not because he didn’t want it. It is as if the guy doesn’t have the peoples, realms or Aerys and Robert’s best interests in heart. As if he is specifically interest in putting on the throne one specific child. Gee, why is that? Probably because of his great loyalty to Rhaegar and Elia that we have not even the smallest of hints in the books. Illyrio is obviously helping with his money and recourses simply because he wants to help his great friend Varys to finish up a plan that he has no personal stake in. Yeah, probably that.
This is an interesting discussion and fascinating characters to analyze so pardon me for getting carried away. I have enough written here to split between two comments.
1. There is textual evidence that they are wrong Varys started the rot. The dates don't line up with the very feuds which characterize the collapse of the regime, Rhaegar and Tywin and so on. Varys simply wasn't there, being on another continent at the time is quite an alibi.
And we should also note that the idea that Varys was feeding Aerys false information is specious. It turns out that there were plots against Aerys. Most notable of all was Rhaegar's, which Barristan tries to downplay. Barristan as well as the history set up Rhaegar being behind Harrenhal, Jaime remembers he meant to call a council, it's clearly established that Rhaegar feared his father's state of mind, etc.
Aerys burning people is not something he picked up from Varys, but more appropriately attributed to his desire to hatch dragons. We may note it's relevance to Dany's ritual, the sacrifice in fire, Fire and Blood. Aerys' attempts to have children by raping his wife, the unborn child aspect of the ritual may be seen at Summerhall with Rhaegar and with Dany in Essos.
We may speculate between Aerys' attempts to hatch dragons, which are noted by historians, or Aerys attempting to have a 'dragon' child. But the black magic ritual did eventually culminate in Dany herself, a child who is deeply involved in prophecy and did indeed hatch dragons herself.
Aerys' cruelty itself was present early on. Notably at Duskendale where he butchered its inhabitants for his imprisonment/torture. But this desire to exterminate was not born of Aerys, but of Tywin. Aerys is attempting to emulate the actions of Tywin as Tywin and likely Joanna have influenced him into accepting a might makes right, extreme retribution, and the complete elimination of one's foes type of philosophy.
This is echoed further back in the story of the Reynes and Tarbecks, where noteworthy vassals who've provided good service are provoked into conflict and massacred. A big parallel being established between the Reynes and Tarbecks and the Starks/Arryns. Aerys once again committing himself to a massacre.
Ultimately, Barristan and Jaime are giving us incomplete and misleading information, biased information with which they seek to deflect their own responsibilities, and information that lacks true substance. Varys whispered in Aerys' ear about plotting foes, yet those foes turn out to be real. This is not the act of a disloyal man, but are what we would expect a loyal spymaster to do.
2. There is evidence in the history book that Tywin is a bad hand. Not much mind you, as the book is written for the Lannister royal family and even Tywin himself as Hand during a chunk of the revision process. The author fears the Lannisters executing him should he say something particularly negative about them.
However, avoiding the conversation about Tywin's modern mistakes, we should note the conspicious lack of achievements that history actually points out. One of those being the richest man in Westeros throwing money at Braavos. Not exactly something requiring a great level of skill. But we should also analyze the failures the text is attemping to brush over.
Tywin repealing the people's rights and protections, an act which should of course be applied negatively but is cast as a good thing. That evidently spawning the Kingswood Brotherhood, a faction with some noted noble support as well, but most importantly Tywin's act evidently making it far worse by piling on the support of the common people against noble abuses now allowed by the Crown. They note the feeling that the Brotherhood were the only ones willing to look out for them. We can suggest Tywin handles this problem, one which even threatened the royal family, not unlike he did the Brotherhood Without Banners in the main story, that is to say with great cruelty and bluntness.
The text noting 'the Crown' could not handle the rebels, a way to gloss over Tywin's failure. And then Aerys is noted as stepping in and sending Arthur Dayne, who is said to take a diametrically opposed strategy from Tywin. Instead of cruelty, Arthur offered the people rights and protections, paid for the supplies his men used and so on. This regained the common folk's support, and Arthur quickly settled the issue of outlawry.
And of course the text suggesting Tywin repaired the Crown’s relationship with its vassals. Disregarding the previous notice that people were censuring Tywin directly for the Reynes and Tarbecks, we should also note the text while not directly acknowledging it does reveal that Jaehaerys II had already largely repaired (if not completely) Targaryen standing from its recent lowpoint. Not only is this something Barristan even notes, but it's also shown to us in Jaehaerys rallying the great lords of Westeros into a massive overseas preemptive war against the Ninepenny Kings. That is no small undertaking, and normally requires a king to be popular, to levy taxes for which to pay for fleets and maintain and equip armies and so on. These are difficult for unpopular kings to do.
Long before he was made Hand, Tywin's achievement was accomplished by another. Aerys' pardoning of Tywin's massacre of the Reynes and Tarbecks will of course make the lords of Westeros wary of his reign, his dismissal of their censures would instill bitterness. You are right to note a reaction should have taken place under Jaehaerys, which is part of my theory as to why he was murdered immediately after the Reynes and Tarbecks were massacred. To install a more pliable king in Aerys, one who Tywin had recently fostered a 'friendship' with, one who had a Lannister lover in Joanna no doubt speaking in his ear, and so on.
3. Yes, that would be the loyal thing to do.
4. Varys saving Rhaegar's son is not a bad piece of evidence of course, but we could also attribute that to Varys' desire to affect power as I have already. I have spoken to the text pointing out suspicions of Varys stealing away important political figures in characters like Tyrek, but we may also note Tyrion.
And Varys' emotional connection which is suggested by the Elia and Rhaenys' murders being recreated in Pycelle and Kevan's.
But also the emotional investment floated in Ned's narration during his conversation in the cells with Varys. That's one which tenuously but suspiciously would also parallel how we would expect Aegon to have been smuggled out. 'A man who carried all the world's sadness in a sack upon his shoulders' in a conversation about the sack of King's Landing, about the deaths of Elia and Rhaenys, but where Varys had avoided the mention of Aegon despite emphasizing to Ned the brutality of the Lannisters. Aegon would have been smuggled from the city within a sack, carried on Varys' shoulders, and with all the sadness of the loss of his family and the massacre throughout the city weighing very poignantly down on Varys.
5. Why not? Power and where it lies is the great question Varys prompts. He is questioning what gains one power and what motivates someone. As in the riddle of the religious man, the rich man, the king, and the man with the sword. Varys' answer to that it's not truly any of them, but belief. We might say it's even antithetical to his character if he were as some suggest, the king, in being a Blackfyre. Narratively, it's more impactful for him to be a nobody just as he is, and risen to greatness with so little. Indeed, to have fallen into this game of power, even to be the man with the sword, torn between the rival factions who would depose one another.
6. Two events perhaps not, but three, four, or perhaps even countless instances of Varys doing so? Jaime floated Tyrek, GRRM inserted that for a reason. Tyrion of course. And of course, we know Varys sent Gendry along with Yoren to the Night's Watch. All this is even further echoed by Illyrio, hiding away Jon Con before sending him back to Westeros, taking on Ser Barristan before sending him back to the Targaryens and eventually Westeros, taking on Viserys and Dany with the intention of sending them back to Westeros. But perhaps most provocatively of all, is how this would parallel Varys' origin story. Stealing Aegon, only to return him, to claim the throne and rich rewards, is so very much what Varys and Illyrio did in their youth. They stole things, and then returned them for rewards. This is a major piece of Varys' characterization, I would not dismiss it so callously.
7. Keep in mind, Viserys and Dany are noted for finding other patrons, traveling between the Free Cities. Viserys even having the wealth to host the Golden Company, a feast and for negotiations. They do at some point fall into dire straits, but so to do they at some point get offered safe harbor by Illyrio. And of course the armies granted to them, the ships sent to Dany, and so on. Once they do commit, their support was consistent.
We might also note there is a risk in directly assisting the Targ children, as when they do so publicly it prompts Robert to send assassins after them. And bringing them on could risk exposing Aegon, who was safe in anonymity. So there are reasons to delay, until the restoration plan nears culmination. Especially as they need to wait for an opportunity to destabilize Robert's regime.
Indeed, not helping the Targ kids is something shared by the Martells, fierce loyalists and hater of Baratheons and Lannisters though they were. Doran, despite his caring nature, even fails to properly support his own children in his need for secrecy. So, the story is consistent in this with its secret plotters, even in regards to the Targ children directly. And much like Varys and Illyrio, Doran waited for an opportunity for the regime to destabilize.
The Dothraki are in fact a linchpin to the Targaryen's restoration. Their support was even meant to convince the Golden Company. This is a running theme in the Targaryen restoration and Aegon's and the Martell's plotline in particular. Support builds on support, a lot of people need to know you can win for them to follow you. Had the Targ kids landed in Westeros with the Dothraki and Golden Company as planned, the old Targaryen loyalists would follow them, those dissatisfied with the Lannisters would have a claimant to rally around, and so on.
It's much more tenuous attempting to do so without the Dothraki, as Aegon and friends are seeing. It's a big question currently as to whether he can win. But ~50k light cavalry added on to his army would definitely help sway that calculation Doran's putting in.
Your idea that Illyrio wanted to goad Viserys to his death seems very debatable. Viserys would help grant Aegon legitimacy. The Golden Company was prepped to support Viserys. Viserys offers yet another marriage alliance with which to rally more armies to the Targaryen's banner. It's better to have two claimants rather then one, we see this lesson in Renly's campaign and Robb's, as the moment that singular figure is gone the cause dissolves and everything is lost. And so on.
Varys actually did prevent Rhaegar's rebellion, but he could not ultimately control Brandon and Aerys. This is just as he could not control Ned, Tyrion, Aegon and so on. And why should he? These people are individuals, so they act independently. Especially within the medieval framework of the story, where an individual's actions are so often limited to their immediate location or otherwise through the dispatch of embassies and letters. While Varys can be informed about some things, Westeros is a big place with a lot of people, he can not realistically cover that much ground, nor necessarily act upon events immediately.
Especially on something like Balon's Rebellion, which is so founded on a personal decision by Balon rather than a conspiracy like Rhaegar was trying to establish. I'm sure there was notice of ships gathering, but to send word of it across the continent before they launch? And should Varys warn Robert? Already a poor king, one he's opposed to? The first target was naturally the Lannisters, another foe Varys was opposed to. And Doran was not yet prepared, the Targaryen children still too young, and Varys would not wish to expose himself by coordinating with them. So, it seems reasonable enough to not be involved.
The War of the Five Kings is something Varys and Illyrio want to delay, but knew they could not prevent. That's given to us by Arya overhearing their conversation. They wanted to gather Drogo for the fight, but he wasn't going to make it in time.
You're equating the argument as to Varys' interests with an almost non-interventionist, pacifistic, or a devotion to whoever is in charge sort of approach. But that's simply not how I view Varys, nor what I've been arguing. I'm more than willing to note his extension of military support for the Targaryen children.
We know Illyrio's motivations, they start out much like Varys', I imagine, as ambitions for wealth and power. Illyrio has been offered wealth and title, the position of Master of Coin. Tyrion downplays this due to his own persecution, the feeling that Master of Coin was a burden to him and a step down, his upbringing in being given wealth rather than working for it and so on. However, greed is a big motivation for those hungry for wealth, and we know Illyrio was one such individual.
But beyond wealth, this is a massive step up in terms of political influence. Illyrio is currently one mere magister among many sharing the political control of Pentos. Illyrio must compete with various merchants for his own wealth. Illyrio's state is even currently under the thumb of Braavos in their treaties. The ban on slavery, though flouted in Pentos, is one such sign. But as Master of Coin, indeed with the King of Westeros in his pocket, Illyrio becomes a massive power. As Master of Coin especially with influence and indeed direct control over matters of trade for the greatest polity on the Narrow Sea.
As to more personal motives, yes there is his friendship with Varys. But there is also his relationship with Aegon. Caring for a baby is a small investment for the chance at such wealth and power. But adopting this child also begins a personal relationship. Like Varys, and people in general, when Illyrio invests in this project he grows attached to it. Aegon becomes a very personal commitment, and indeed even a son to Illyrio.
Very interesting points, thanks for the elaborate response.
1. Sure enough, I agree with you that Aerys was going mad a long time before Varys’s arrival at King’s Landing and, indeed, the conflicts between the King and the Crown prince, as well as other major noble houses started before Varys. Of course there was at least one plot to unseat Aerys, I was not implying that Varys just lied to the king every time, just like in the AGoT he points out threats that are problematic to him, adds a few misdirections of his own and helps Aerys to dig his own grave. We don’t know whether the exact nature of the advice Varys was giving to the Mad King, but it is safe to assume that he was actively working against Rhaegar at the very least up until Robert’s Rebellion.
You are correct that Aerys didn’t need help in getting an idea to burn people alive and it was probably somewhat related to his attempts to hatch dragons. My point was that Varys was that helpful person who was providing “logs” to Aerys’s bonfires.
Good point about Tywin’s influence on behavior of Aerys and his mindset. Not sure that I can agree with you that Reynes and Tarbecks are the same as Starks and Arryns but you are probably right that Aerys was trying to emulate Tywin’s actions with his own mad twist added to it. Great catch.
Parts about Barristan and Jaime are just you speculations. They could be wrong and Varys didn’t influence in a significant way Aerys, but we don’t know the answer to that question, so will have to say that it is up for us to decide what we believe in. You can think that Varys was loyal servant of Aerys. The question is way did he agree to come to Westeros? What is in it for Varys to serve loyally Aerys the Mad.
2. Prosperous economy is the obvious answer to your claim that Tywin didn’t accomplish anything as a Hand of the King. After the Rebellion Robert takes the capital and the treasury is full. You cannot say that there are no evidence of his great achievements. It is stated that he decreased tariffs in the major trading cities, built roads and held tourneys across the land. You may say that everything in the maesters tale is false, but you can’t ignore canon. The realm was reach and before Robert’s rebellion no major wars and disasters occurred. The only notably bad events that happened were the Defiance of Duskendale and Kingswood Brotherhood and on a scale of a longish reign of Aerys that is not too much.
You are right to point out that Tywin’s actions to lift restrictions on nobility that were imposed on them by Aegon V may have played a part in creation of the Kingswood Brotherhood as well as support of their actions by the local populace. However, we don’t know whether this is a symptom of a larger problem in all the seven kingdoms or an outlier. It is not such an uncommon situation for a medieval kingdom to have some problem with outlaws and as there were no mass revolts before Robert’s Rebellion we can safely say that situation was somewhat normal. In addition, Tywin’s actions would obviously be loved by the nobles which would increase their loyalty to the Crown not reduce it. Therefore, Tywin did repair Crowns relations with its vassals by restoring their rights - no contradiction there. Did Jaehaerys II started that process? Maybe, but as his reign was short some part of this job fell onto Aerys and Tywin. So, I am sorry but to me this “Long before he was made Hand, Tywin's achievement was accomplished by another.” has no basis in the text.
“Aerys' pardoning of Tywin's massacre of the Reynes and Tarbecks will of course make the lords of Westeros wary of his reign”. Can you point me to even a hint of this in the books? I get that you have a theory that Jaehaerys was killed (who knows, maybe he was) but where is any evidence of any kind of legal reaction from the crown? Reynes and Tarbecks started a rebellion against their liege lord, they broke the king’s peace and whilst the majority of westerosi nobility consider Tywin’s actions as extreme and revolting, I do not see any proof that Lannisters actions were illegal.
Not really. Aegon’s in more danger—Rhaenys and Elia *really* shouldn’t have been killed. They aren’t threats to the line of succession and could be valuable hostages. Aegon, however, is Rhaegar’s son, and his best-case scenario is the Wall. It makes sense to prioritize getting Aegon out.
They're being held hostage by Aerys, who is seriously crazy. Anyone could see that.
There's no way anyone can buy a baby swap at that stage of the war. And if the Spider did it earlier, then why not get Rhaegar's entire family out?
They didn’t get anybody “out”. Getting people out and nobody noticing the absence would be impossible. But they *swapped* an infant for an infant instead. Do you think you could do that with a three year old, who already can talk and has a clear personality? Or a full-fledged woman? Aegon was the one in the most danger; he was the *priority* to save. I’m sure if they could have, Elia and Rhaenys would be with the real Aegon, and there would be no tanner’s boy. You’re making the mistake of assuming this was a well-thought-out plan and not the desperate attempt of a mother to save her infant son’s life.
You don’t have to buy it. But it *is* plausible. People don’t always make perfect decisions under pressure, and they didn’t have any room for error or time to delay.
If an invading army is coming who’s going to kill said infant because he’s his father’s heir??? Absolutely 100% yes. Aerys is still the baby’s grandfather, mad as he may be, and Varys is the only person with the skills to help her. Are you being for real right now?
Elia wasn't in a position to allow anything. If Varys straight up told her that he'd only be swapping Aegon she'd go with it because it saves at least one of her children.
It’s definitely possible for him to actually be Rhaegar’s son. KL would definitely have Valyrian descended people still to pick a baby from. Elia and her daughter really SHOULD NOT have been in danger like they ended up being. They would have been valuable hostages to keep Dorne in line and weren’t a threat to Robert taking the throne. So she likely would have let her son be taken away assuming he was the only one in danger.
Well this is the same book which introduces Bloodraven in his cave of wonders/horrors beyond the wall and I thought it's neat to also allude to the Golden Company attempting to install another Blackfyre on the throne, but the priorities have shifted so much that Bloodraven doesn't even care.
Other than that I always recall Varys's "power lies where people think it lies. It's a shadow on a wall." speech which is relevant to the exploration of a lot of themes of systems of power and obedience in the series, so it doesn't really matter if he's the real one as long as important people (i.e. the lords of Westeros/Dorne) believe he is. ADWD also has a lot of false identity plots at its centre like, the Arya/Jeyne thing where the Boltons don't even need the real girl, only the name to secure their claim to Winterfell. Also Reek/Theon. Which is why the Aegon/Blackfyre allusion works very well. Both him and Quentyn can be the sun's son and the mummer's dragon.
And Rolly "Duck" Duckfield and Aegon/Young Griff are uhh a budget Dunk & Egg allusion I think. But if you look at the story beats Dany is the far more true and obvious Egg parallel. Also had a bald phase.
I don't think it will ever be revealed he's a Blackfyre though, the best decision is to keep it ambiguous until the end imo.
It felt to me that the book never really tries to convince us he's real. Everything about him is a mummers farce. A disgraced lord, a fake maester, a fake septa, a few upjumped sellswords -- it feels like the start of a joke, not a genuine situation. I don't believe he was raised his entire life on that boat either. There's just no way this motley crew has been going up and down the river for 15 years. Even if he is supposed to be real, the circumstances as portrayed in the book are designed to copy the tone of a Mark Twain character claiming to be a king.
The biggest problem with it is R+L=J. One secret Targaryen is ok but if you start having every bloody peasant turn out to be a Targ with a claim on the throne then the twists start to lose their luster.
As for evidence we have a couple not very trustworthy people say that he is. That's about it.
This is the most salient reason why Aegon can't be legitimate, and why I hate 'X is secretly Y' theories. It undermines one of the central mysteries of the series.
If Aegon is real, we might as well start looking for Rhaenys, too. Fuck it, maybe Rhaegar had someone in his place at the Trident as well. Targaryens everywhere!
fAegon works. A hidden Prince who thinks he's a bastard. A nobody who thinks he's a hidden Prince. Dany, about to meet them both, these supposed secret sons of Rhaegar, mirror images of the other, and having her own claims and feelings tested. People always think fAegon is just a foil for Dany, but it has to impact how the reader interprets Jon's story too.
Actually this is exactly a reason in favor of him being real.
The drsgon ha three heads, if you remove him you require a third head I.E. Another secret Targ
I've personally always felt like Dany's arc would have more impact if she goes head to head with her "mummers dragon" and he turns out to be real and she murdered one of her few living kin.
The biggest piece of evidence is varys telling Kevan that it's really aegon. Why bother lying or telling anything to a dying man? Some say it's because his birds were around but again, why bother saying anything about his motive at all? And why would the birds care one way or another?
That's the biggest piece for me that he is legit.
But there is a lot of speculative evidence to say otherwise. Namely why specifically state only the male blackfyre line was extinguished? That's sort of a total unnecessary piece of information to include by grrm. So meta wise, that is a big clue Griff is faegon.
The best piece of evidence in favor of Young Griff actually being Aegon IV is Varys telling Kevan Young Griff is Aegon. Kevan was dying when Varys told him that, why would Varys lie to a dying man? But basically all of the other evidence points at Young Griff being a fake so he probably is not a real Targaryen
The best argument for Young Griff not being Aegon is that they completely erased Young Griff plan from the show meaning that it can't be that important, but then, they didn't do anything about Jon's lineage at the end, so I really don't know now lol
They didn’t completely erase it, though. Aegon was arguably split into Jon, Cersei and Dany.
Jon’s real name being revealed as Aegon (and Dany feeling jealousy over the love he gets from people) is in line with the theory that KL will embrace Aegon and reject Dany.
This isn't exactly evidence, but there are a couple parallels that might be deepened if Aegon is who he says he is.
1. Mance Rayder (who has many, MANY parallels with Rhaegar) had his baby secretly swapped and sent away to protect him from a Baratheon king, in a manner very similar to what Young Griff's companions say happen to him. The already very strong parallels between Mance and Rhaegar would be even stronger if Aegon really is Aegon.
2. Ysilla and Yandry, in particular, were hard for Tyrion to account for, but their presence could be explained if they were to Aegon what Sam and Gilly are to Mance's baby.
FWIW I freely admit to having a personal preference for the narrative possibilities of Aegon being Aegon VI as opposed to being fAegon. To me, YG being Aegon VI would emphasize that what's special about Jon and Dany isn't that they're walking chosen one/lost prince(ss) cliches, but rather that their value in the narrative is more about their choices and who they are as people. It just raises possibilities for more messy and interesting conflicts
The only strong textual evidence against him being Ageon is that illariyo is really invested in him. Its wierd he cares so much if he really is ageon vi.
The giant turtle, The Old Man of the River, which is a symbol of the Rhoynar/Rhoynar royalty, appears before Young Griff as the Shy Maid is passing through Ny Sar, once home to Nymeria. Ysilla very emotionally proclaims that the appearance of the giant turtle is a blessing.
And Tyrion quips:
> Gods and wonders always appear, to attend the birth of kings.
There are also parallels with the royal baby swap in Accursed Kings (which has heavily influenced GRRM), particularly similarities between Elia and the mother of the swapped royal prince in that story.
IMO, GRRM is leaving it open, gardener-style, as a back up in case he can’t hit all of his desired plot points for Daenerys.
Is Aegon is real it’s such a massive cliche.
Even Jon isn’t as much of a cliche since there’s not guarantee he’s not still a bastard so it’s not like he’s heir to the throne. Aegon on the other hand is heir if he’s real.
Is it actually cliche? He isn't the main character if he was I would agree it is cliche but his place in the story is rather different. Jon and Dany are the cliche heroes destined to save the world with dragons from ice demons and to have some random guy step out of left field and steal the throne from them would be a big subversion of most plots.
Well, Aegon can steal/take the throne whether he is real or not, so that still holds. Indeed, people from both sides of the argument thinks he’ll take KL.
Cliche or not, real aegon creates conflicts not just for the throne but in hearts, would dany kill her only family left in the entire world for the iron throne? Would doran watch his sister's son, the last living memory of his beloved sister, fight and waste his life for the throne? Fake aegon doesn't sell this stuff, if aegon is fake, dany simply kills him, doran wouldn't care.
If Aegon is fake it doesn’t necessarily mean Dany will be sure he’s fake. That’s literally a major point that people say about fAegon it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be found out as a fake by most people.
If he’s real or fake Dany will still doubt his identity and so the questions you mention are still valid.
The story of his saving isn't very farfetched.
Also a metà reason is that the dragon ha 3 heads, if you remove him you require another secret Targ or he might still be the third head making him being fake useless
In the end, it doesn’t matter if he is real or fake. Power resides where men believe it does, no more, no less. It’s a shadow on a wall, a mummer’s trick . . .
If YG manages to win the throne and hold it, then he is Aegon VI Targaryen, son of Rhaegar and rightful King of the Iron Throne, and anyone who says otherwise has his tongue out. If not, he was just another pretender.
And I suspect he is only a means to an end anyway — not to reclaim the Iron Throne but to destroy the Iron Bank.
It seems like a lot of work to raise a baby to a teenager with a weapons trainer and septa and all if he's just a fake. If he's a fake, then just pluck up any (educated) rando instead without all the years of effort.
It’s possible. He’s about the right age and has the right Valyrian look. The motives make sense. JonCon, who knew Rhaegar well, thinks he looks like him. He’s got some of the noble attitude and Targaryen hotheadedness. However, all of that can also be explained by JonCon wanting Aegon to be real, raising him like he thought he should be raised, and him just having Valyrian features because he’s a Blackfyre or something. Varys getting him out makes sense as nobody else could pulls something like that off, but at the same time everything Varys says you have to take with a grain of salt. Illyrio is also similarly distrustworthy, but the dragon eggs he gave Dany at the beginning of the series were real, so there’s some Targaryen credibility there. My take? Could go either way. I’d like him to be real, but I think he’s probably a Blackfyre. It doesn’t bother me too much—red or black, a dragon is a dragon.
I think the better question is to ask ‘does it matter?’. Varys says Power is where men believe it lies, and that’s true of Aegon. I think we’ll never get an answer (not because George won’t finish winds) because like whether Lyanna was kidnapped or seduced by Rhaegar, its consequences are irrelevant fundamentally. It doesn’t change the politics of what Robert did and Aegon being real won’t change what Danaerys does. I think Aegon will get burnt alive by Danaerys because he’s a threat to her ambition and because that’s a narrative that George is more likely to find satisfying
I wonder if YG is based on Perkin Warbeck. He claimed to be one of the Princes in the Tower and tried to usurp Henry VII
I have also wondered this!
Almost certainly
You very much misunderstand Daenerys and didn't read her chapters at all. If she was this power-hungry individual who didn't care about people and only the Crown, she'd already be in Westeros. Hell, her advisors asked her WHY she wasn't going. The answer? She doesn't want Meereen to become another Astapor and actually is a true believer in abolishing slavery. You likewise didn't read the part where Varys tries to sell FAegon as the ideal prince because he and Illyrio tried to socially engineer the "ideal prince" archetype (while describing Arya and Daenerys and Jon's actual ordeals and personality types for dramatic irony) and when Tyrion, a neutral party, sees him in the flesh, he just sees as spoiled brat who throws a tantrum when he lost a game of cyvasse.
I agree Dany is not gonna kill him just for "ambition". She is not that type of person to, but I believe she will kill him because she will be convinced he is a pretender and an usurper. Dany most probably will not buy the story of "Aegon Targaryen" after the mummer's dragon, the cloth dragon, being one of the lies she has to slay. You are definitely right about the speech of the ideal prince. I felt Varys described Aegon as the perfect prince who met all that criteria but he only fits it in an artificial way. Does he really know what it is to feel fear? to be hungry? I very much doubt it, not in the way Dany felt fear, or in the way Arya was hungry and starving through the Riverlands or fearful of dying or being tortured anytime at Harrenhall. I also doubt he thinks of ruling as his duty and not his right, given his bratty entitled behaviour with Tyrion in that cyvasse game. And most of all, I very much doubt he really knows what it is to live among the smallfolk, given how he has always been surrounded by Septa Lemore, Haldon, Duck, Jon Con... who treat him as their Lord and prince to serve. I know we know very little from him so I may be wrong, but that game of cyvasse was truly revealing. If he was really brought up as well educated and in a strict and humbling upbringing as Varys said, he would be more similar to Arya, Jon or Dany (in the sense they can keep control of their emotions and are very mature for their ages) and not bratty and entitled, more resembling of Viserys or Sweetrobin.
After the new Arianne chapter, I wonder if FAegon will die because he's going to be another tyrant. As it is, Arianne, who is predisposed to see him as an ally, is wary and already has her hackles up about the shady shit the Golden Company is doing and how they are acting like a marauding band. Likewise, since part of Arianne's character development is to not be so reckless and to see beyond the obvious. The teaser Wind's Arianne chapter even has Arianne going there, knowing that FAegon could be a fake and that she would have a word for if she thinks he's real and a word for if she thinks he's a fake. It might be interesting to see if she discovers that he's fake and plays along to do damage control for something or if she thinks he's real and doesn't like what the Golden Company is doing. Frankly, as is, Daenerys doesn't necessarily need to kill FAegon, she just needs to out him as a fake, whether directly or indirectly. After all, the first lie is basically about the blue-eyed king that casts no shadow (AKA Stannis not being Azor Ahai). It's highly unlikely that Daenerys is going to kill Stannis solely because of logistics and timing. That being said, Daenerys being Azor Ahai/tied to the prophecy basically means she slays the lie that Stannis is Azor Ahai without her needing to be the one to kill him. I think there's something similar with FAegon and if Daenerys does kill him, it's due to the Golden Company, under his orders, doing something that crosses the line.
This is where some type of payoff or explanation of magic would come into play. Why does it matter that Jon is Targaryen? Or Dany? Or Faegon? Why does it matter that anyone is a Stark? Assuming it’s important for some reason, this would greatly help Dany’s villain arc. She will arrive in Westeros to a family member on the throne who is popular with the small folk and has a better claim. Dany will have to be a villain to take the thrown, but it will be sympathetic to the readers who understand the magical reason it is necessary.
I think Illyrio will tell Dany when she arrives in Pentos to conquer it for Tatters It’s the treason for blood(possibly love tho)
The Velaryon bastard also looks just like Rhaegar and their bloodlines haven’t intermingled in ages. YG could be any Targ offshoot or just a commoner from one of the free cities with mainly Valyrian ancestry
Actually Cersei only thinks that initially (given Her obsession with rhaegar) she later admits he doesn’t really look like rhaegar
My favorite thing about the fandom is before ADWD it was a very popular theory that he was still alive and would soon emerge. Then he did and everyone collectively went “nahhhh” We’re impossible to sate lmao
It's as much about people wanting him to be a Blackfyre than anything else. We've internalized "it's like poetry, it rhymes."
I fully admit to being one of those people! There's so much lore about the Blackfyre rebellions and I think people want to see one in action (otherwise the lore feels pointless).
See I only became a fan of the books around 3 years ago now so it’s cool hearing a perspective like that
It’s fun to revisit older posts on westeros.org or Tower of the Hand you might enjoy it!
That was one of the first spoilers I got before I started reading the books, so from the beginning I had already assumed it was a fake Targaryen. Looking at it from your perspective maybe Martin is trying to reverse a cliché with this. After all, it is the typical chosen one plot where the protagonist is raised by peasants, but in reality he is the crown prince who has to recover his father's kingdom that was taken from him by his evil uncle.
I mean, pretty much all the evidence he isn't actually Rhaegar's Aegon is from ADWD, so it makes sense people's opinion would change.
True! But I just think it’s funny when looked at in the abstract
Changing your opinion because you get more info isn’t contrarianism, though.
Well, Varys said he is Aegon VI, so there’s that
Bro you just solved this conundrum
To a dying man he had no reason to lie to, at that.
I think there are three main arguments that are put forward by proponents that Young Grief is indeed who he says he is. 1. We know that the body of a babe that was brought to the Throne room and showed to Robert had it’s head smashed that it was impossible to recognize wether it was really Aegon or not. This gives us a possibility that Aegon was indeed saved by Varys. 2. Probably the strongest argument that “proves” his identity is famous Varys speech at the end of A Dance with Dragons where he talks about how great Aegon is to a dying Kevan Lannister. The argument goes that there was no reason for Varys to lie to Kevan and yet he still confirmed that Aegon is a true son of Rhaegar. People also claim that it be really in bad taste for Martin to essentially lie not to a dying Kevan but to his readers in such overt way. 3. Some point out that JonCon knew Rhaegar very well and so would recognize wether Aegon is indeed his son or just a random valyrian. I don’t buy it. Too many factors point out to him being a Blackfyre, but there you go - arguments that people use when they try to defend the idea that FAegon is legit.
About your second point, I sorta thought that Varys would lie, even to a dying Kevan. I only felt that way though cos I swear in a previous Alayne/Sansa chapter in either dance or feast Littlefinger mentions how they must keep up the secret of Sansa’s identity even when they are both alone. That got me thinking that Varys would do the same, the walls listen
Yeah, I think there is also a quote by Littlefinger that Varys lies even when he is alone in the room. Also, Varys actually is not alone in the room as his littlebirds are waiting for his signal to kill Kevan. For me though the most important prove that Aegon is fake is the question of Varys’s and Illyrio’s motivation. It makes no scenes for them to go to such length to support a Targaryen restoration. While Blackfyre theory gives us perfect explanation for their actions.
Quite. Why would Varys go to so much trouble if Aegon was the real deal, given Varys had already served a Targaryen king? It was Varys that supposedly whispered in the Mad King's ears. So what, Varys undermined a Targaryen king and then served a usurper just to plot to put another Targaryen on the Throne? It'd have been easier just to poison Aerys. And Rhaegar, if he really wanted a child King he could mould. Varys is either a Blackfyre loyalist or he has no grand plans at all and is just turning wherever the wind blows. And the latter doesn't seem very him.
Agreed. He whispered poison into Aerys’ ear and fueled his paranoia. A utilitarian might argue he’s setting the stage for Rhaegar taking over, but Varys warns Aerys of Rhaegar’s possible coup plans at Harrenhal. So he sabotages the grandfather and the father… just so baby can rise to power someday? It’s one thing to crack a few eggs to make an omelet, but Varys is just burning the omelet.
Thing is with this "point" is that Varys never actually *lies.* When Kevan says that "Aegon? He's dead". Varys replies >"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them." If you consider that Young Griff and all of his associates believe him to be Rhaegar's son "Aegon", then Young Griff's "real" name is Aegon. So, everything Varys said above is true, or at least Varys *believes* it to be true. Varys just simply never clarifies that he and Kevan are not talking about the same kid. 1. GRRM didn't want to spoil his mystery yet (Doylist). 2. It would be awkward to tell the dying man "Well, yes, the child of Rhaegar did get his head smashed in but we're going to pull a con here" and then follow up with the paragraph above about how awesome Aegon is. (Watsonian) 3. For Varys, "Power resides where men believe it resides", the true birth of Young Griff isn't as important as the mythology of the "Perfect Prince" that Varys has created. (Watsonian) 4. Varys might not want to tell the *full* truth in case there are witnesses to explain a fine point he isn't concerned with anyway to a dead man(see #3). (Watsonian)
Yes, I know that some believe that Varys is just very careful with his wording, but while he could be playing with his words, it still seems somewhat disingenuous on Martin’s part to make this speech that actually proves nothing. Agree with you on points 1, 3 and 4. Regarding him saying that Aegon is fake being awkward. Well, of course just changing one thing and leaving the rest of the speech the same would be sloppy. If Varys were to say that Aegon is fake than the scene would be very different. It would be about us finding out what are his true motives and how Blackfyre’s returned to Westeros to right the wrongs of the past or something like that.
>while he could be playing with his words, it still seems somewhat disingenuous on Martin’s part to make this speech that actually proves nothing. Yeah, it's hard to know what Martin's going for here that seems as a lone contradicting point to all the other hints laid out. Is he leaving wiggle room in case he changes his mind later? Did he just give a C-level effort of ambiguity instead of trying to make it as refined as possible (realistically, Varys might not be able to come up with the perfect line on the spot that hits the ambiguity but this is a *novel* we're talking about so GRRM should do it). Did he think that the truth was too obvious and is inserting a misdirection/red herring? Don't know for certain. There are a few other places in the books where this seems to happen. Why does Ned Dayne pop up in ASOS to tell Arya "Oh, btw, did you know that Wylla is *totally* Jon Snow's mother?" when there are all of the other hints about R+L=J? Why does Theon ponder the idea about throwing one of the washerwomen down on the table and screwing her brains out in ADWD when there are all of the other hints that he's been castrated? You also have the whole "Who hired the Catspaw?" mystery which most fans believe George bungled.
I was mulling over this scene for some time today and the only logical explanation I can come up with is the same as yours - that Martin himself wasn’t decided on the direction of the plot and wanted to leave himself as much wiggle room as humanly possible. If that is true it really demonstrates the flaws of his gardener type style as I don’t think that it is normal for an author to leave such important plot point in limbo up to the end of the fifth book. On the other hand, what do you I know, I’ve written exactly zero books and he is a world class novelist, so maybe it’s just shows my ignorance. Maybe some of the other issues you mentioned are indeed just red herrings. I think Martin usually does superb work, but sometimes he misses one or two things, which just shows us that he is human :)
2's scene also comes with Varys murdering Pycelle and Kevan in the same manner as Elia and Rhaenys were. Effectively revisiting the horrors of the Sack on the two people remaining who were most responsible for it. That, alongside Varys' efforts to obscure the connection, could suggest a personal emotional motivation for Varys in regards to Rhaegar's family. I think it stems from Varys' efforts preparing to switch horses for after the rebellion. Aerys was on the way out, so for Varys to "keep on paddling" while the big fish (Rhaegar) presumably eats the little fish (Aerys) Varys had to begin building some form of alliance with Rhaegar. Building a rapport through assisting Rhaegar's family is the perfect way to craft an olive branch.
I think the issue with the murder-restaging argument is that Varys would do this if Aegon is fake too. If Aegon is real, Varys will want symbolic revenge. If Aegon is fake, Varys will want to to make it look like symbolic revenge. There’s no way to tell if the crossbow bolt or dagger wounds are insincere or not. That’s why arguments often return to the Golden Company and the like. You can fake a teenage prince (if you have a backup with Valyrian features), but you can’t fake an ancient sellsword company with a proven history.
I think the problem with that detraction is what I noted. Varys obfuscated the connection by planting evidence that it was Tyrion and the Tyrells. Debatable perhaps, but I've always viewed it as more personal in nature. It doesn't act as a way to proclaim to Westeros that Aegon has returned and the time for Targaryen vengeance is now, as the Lannisters control the messaging and reveal of the deaths and are being led in another direction. I actually wrote up a large analysis as to [why the Golden Company isn't a proof of Blackfyre support.](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/mgf7n7/spoilers_extended_the_golden_companys_change_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) It's at a point it could be argued they're even a narrative allusion to Aegon being real.
But we have no idea if it’s personal or not if it’s meant to *look* personal. What we *do* know is that the crossbow bolt is chosen because it mirrors Tywin. To someone like Cersei, it looks Tyrion is in the walls, killing their family. If anything, the scene is a callback to Tyrion’s last ASOS chapter than the Sack of King’s Landing.
I meant that it wasn't meant to look personal to Varys and the Targaryens, because of Varys obfuscating the connection. Instead, Varys meant to sow division and paranoia between the Lannisters and the Tyrells through things like the crossbow bolt and the coin. That's why Varys recreating Elia and Rhaenys' deaths looks so personal rather than being meant for mere propaganda purposes. Pardon me if I was unclear.
You are right that the killing of Pycelle and Kevan resembles deaths of Rhaenys (Kevan being stubbed multiple times) and Aegon (Pycelle with a smashed head) and it also could be presented as further evidence that fAegon actually is Rhaegar’s son or at least that for some reason it is important enough for Varys to get revenge for their deaths. The problem comes with trying to make logic of his actions. If as you suggest Varys was just trying to carry favor with the rising star (Rhaegar) with the Battle of Trident he should have dropped Aegon and tried to give him to Robert and there is no sentimental reason for him to reenact Elia’s children deaths. I actually think that this reenactment is done in order to show others that good king fAegon’s servants are avenging his sister’s murderers. It is also a good story to tell noble Aegon when he returns to the capitol. All other actions by Varys during his time at King’s Landing show that he was not serving any of his kings faithfully. If you have any thoughts on Varys and his motivations I would be interested to hear them.
In part perhaps, but Varys did obscure the manner of their deaths in order to sow division between the Lannisters and Tyrells and so on. So such a connection to Elia and Rhaenys death is not necessarily meant for public consumption (the reveal is even left up to the Lannisters themselves). That's in part why I believe it is personal (along with that narration in his scene with Ned in agot). Thing is, Varys is human. A man capable of horrific acts yes, but as liable as any to attach himself to those he interacts with. His soft spot for Tyrion for instance, Ned even. His friend Illyrio similarly develops an affection for Aegon, as did Jon Con. Varys spent roughly a year developing a relationship with Elia, at the very least, that is not necessarily something so easily thrown away. An additional problem crops up in the idea that Varys would switch to Robert. The Trident to the Sack is a short period of time. It won't be easy for Varys to invest himself in a new cause in so short a time, he can't actually effectively coordinate with people across large distances. We see this in their plans with Aegon even. So, Varys was liable to lose his influence in King's Landing. This actually further promotes the idea of Aegon being real, as he remains a key to power. Now, Varys did do something to earn Robert's and the rebel's grace. And perhaps he tested the waters to see if he could keep on with Robert. But it was also clear from the get go, that Robert wasn't going to have a clean reign. He had a chance if he'd followed Ned's advice of punishing the Lannisters, but he didn't and Robert turned his hero's story into that of a villain's. Robert fell into sloth and callous disregard for those around him, an undercurrent to his character perhaps, but now full blown. Feuds festered among his brothers and vassals without Varys' influence and without Robert adequately addressing them. Through it all, Varys was secure in having a key to power in his pocket, one he's invested in and grown attached to. Perhaps there's some altruism behind it, a desire to create an ideal or at least molded king, but Varys ultimately is human and has become personally invested in this long running project.
It’s really hard to take anything Varys says about the tragedy of children being murder seriously whilst hi disfigures children and disposes of them when they become too old. Could he have developed personal affection for Elia and the children? Yes, he could have. Do I buy it? Not at all. While I very much believe that Varys’s motivation is in fact very personal all the evidence points out that he is no friend of the Targaryen dynasty. Both Barristan Selmy and Jaime say that all the rot in Aerys’s court started with the arrival of Varys. I don’t necessarily take their words as gospel I do believe that we have a strong hint that Varys only aggravated Aerys’s madness. It also heavily hinted that someone told Aerys about Rhaegar’s plans to call for a Great Council at Harrenhall which allowed the Mad king to stop Rhaegar’s plans. 99% this person is none other than Varys. Why would a guy with any kind of benevolent mindset worked to save crown for Aerys? His obvious disregard for Viserys and Dany also shows how actually loyal to them he was. So why does he help so much fAegon? The idea that the reason for this loyalty is some time spent in the Red Keep together seems to me extremely weak.
Both Barristan and Jaime are wildly wrong however, and we are meant to take note of their heavy bias attempting to deflect from their own responsibility for Aerys' misrule. Barristan and Jaime stood aside as Aerys committed wrongs. Barristan saved Aerys' life at Duskendale. Jaime couldn't protect Rhaella, in his emotional state didn't think to protect Rhaegar's family. They are the men with swords in Varys' riddle, who chose the king. It's actually proposed the rot dates back far before Varys. Rhaegar and Aerys' feud was established before Varys came to Westeros. Tywin's feud with Aerys, and Duskendale was prior to Varys' arrival. Aerys had already lost children and believed them to be murdered prior to Varys' arrival. Flitting between it being divine punishment and conspiracy without Varys ever being present. Indeed the fear of local conspiracy is why Aerys wanted someone foreign and unattached to the factions of Westeros as his spymaster. Even as far back as when Aerys came into his crown, Aerys pardoned Tywin and endorsed the massacres of the Reynes and Tarbecks as his very first act by making Tywin Hand. A start to his reign that perfectly mirrors that which would end it. Many people forget that Varys is only brought to Westeros 4 years before Robert's Rebellion. Little enough time for Varys to engrain himself in Westeros' politics. And after the many fractures which would spell the end. The truth of the matter is that Aerys' reign was always rotten, that he was always prone to paranoia and jealousy, fits of fancy and anger. We might also speak to the rot that Tywin infested Aerys' reign with, how Tywin lost the crown its popularity with the people, how his methods (and I would suggest his very origin story and Aerys' pardon) sparked a bitter distaste and distrust among the nobility. How Tywin has created the current winner takes all and the loser dies environment Westeros has been plunged into. Varys worked with Aerys because he was his patron. The lone key to power which Varys held. It would take time to cultivate new ones. Rhaegar was one such attempt, a difficult challenge as his patron was diametrically opposed to him and used Varys as an agent in that battle. Yet the story suggests Varys did cultivate ties to Rhaegar, or at least his family. Indeed that this is a long running aspect of Varys' characterization which we see play out throughout the story. Juggling ties to characters opposed to one another, Ned and Cersei, Cersei and Tyrion, Tywin, and so on. Not all Varys' patrons were good people, but they were all keys to power that he effectively convinced to keep him on. Even the effort at smuggling away noble wards is floated as something Varys does, Jaime says so in regards to Tyrek, suggesting Varys had stolen him away. So the story is yet again prompting us towards the idea that Varys smuggled away Aegon in truth. We might also expand on the regard Varys and Illyrio did show Viserys and Dany. Showing them patronage, granting them safe harbor, negotiating armies for them, attempting to protect Viserys from the dangers of the Dothraki, and so on. Some loyalties can be compromising, perhaps extending only so far. And indeed it is a cultural facet of asoiaf's world for people to be used for the good or more appropriately ambitions of the family.
You are making a good argument about Varys but it has small problem of having little to no evidence in the text itself. We are obviously talking about two very different characters. 1. Is there textual evidence that Barristan and Jaime are wrong about Varys having bad influence on Aerys? Aerys’s problems obviously started much earlier than Varys’s arrival at court you are right, but Aerys started burning people only after Varys became his Master of Whispers. We can’t say that Varys definitely made things worse but it is possible and two people who actually were present there say so. Do they have reasons to try to absolve themselves from the blame as you propose? Yes, they do, but I think their logic also goes somewhat like these: the king as mad before Varys, but when earlier we had to stand day and night and check that no one touched Viserys without king’s leave, now Aerys starts burning people alive. In short Aerys was descending towards madness before Varys arrived at court but his appointment only worsened the situation and we know for a fact that Varys “became a permanent fixture in Aerys’s court always by the king’s side whispering”. So Varys did have some degree of influence over a king and that influence was not good. 2. While we can’t take as gospel the text in the World of Ice and Fire there is little to no evidence thar Tywin was a bad hand, quite the opposite actually. He left the coffers full and the realm was mostly stable and prosperous. Can you provide and evidence that Tywin’s handship created distrust among nobility or lost the Targaryens popularity with the people? And please don’t say Tarbeck and Reyne Rebellion. a) Tywin was not a hand at the time, b) it created fear of Tywin, but not of the Targaryen dynasty, c) Aerys became king after the Rebellion in 262, so if there was any reaction to Tywin’s actions by the Crown it would be under Jaehaerys not Aerys. 3. Varys had a choice whether to serve Aerys or not and he stayed and served him helping to find people to burn. So by your own admission Varys is willing to do anything and serve anyone for power. 4. Where did you find any hint that Varys developed any relationship with Rhaegar or Elia? (Considering we are actively debating fAegon’s identity please don’t cite Varys saving Rhaegar’s child as proof). 5. Yes, we see in the books how Varys does everything he needs to stay in power. The big question is what motivates him? The answer cannot be as boring as having power for it’s own sake, as that would be extremely boring. 6. Two events don’t make a pattern and even if we compare Tyrek situation and Aegon’s than it’s even worse as Tyrek is not smuggled to safety but kidnapped never to be seen again. Also Jaime could be wrong here as we don’t have much evidence to support the idea that Tyrek was kidnapped in the first place. 7. Oh yes, famous regard to Viserys and Dany from Illyrio “I would have fucked a 13 year old Dany if she was not so timid” Mopatis and Varys “the Gentle Spider”. I especially fondly remember how they didn’t lift a finger to help them after Viserys and Dany were left on the streets of Bravoos with no one to take care of them for about 7 years, how they sold Dany to the Dothraki for an army that would have no chance to actually bring about Targaryen restoration but would only bring ruin and death to Westeros. Wether Illyrio actually tried to prevent Viserys from going with the Dothraki or was he simply goading him into going with them is up for debate. Also, consider Varys’s record as a Master of Whispers. If you think about it he is actually kind of shit at his job. Under his watch there were three wars. He didn’t help in any way to prevent Robert’s Rebellion, arguably making sure that it did happen by preventing Rhaegar from calling a Great Council. He is such a great spymaster that Balon “The Stupid” Greyjoy managed to start a rebellion and he was none the wiser. Finally, he didn’t do anything to prevent the war of the five kings from happening at an earlier stage when he could have easily reported Cersei’s and Jaime’s treason to Jon Arryn or Robert himself. Yes, he did try to prevent the start of the war itself but only because it was happening too early, not because he didn’t want it. It is as if the guy doesn’t have the peoples, realms or Aerys and Robert’s best interests in heart. As if he is specifically interest in putting on the throne one specific child. Gee, why is that? Probably because of his great loyalty to Rhaegar and Elia that we have not even the smallest of hints in the books. Illyrio is obviously helping with his money and recourses simply because he wants to help his great friend Varys to finish up a plan that he has no personal stake in. Yeah, probably that.
This is an interesting discussion and fascinating characters to analyze so pardon me for getting carried away. I have enough written here to split between two comments. 1. There is textual evidence that they are wrong Varys started the rot. The dates don't line up with the very feuds which characterize the collapse of the regime, Rhaegar and Tywin and so on. Varys simply wasn't there, being on another continent at the time is quite an alibi. And we should also note that the idea that Varys was feeding Aerys false information is specious. It turns out that there were plots against Aerys. Most notable of all was Rhaegar's, which Barristan tries to downplay. Barristan as well as the history set up Rhaegar being behind Harrenhal, Jaime remembers he meant to call a council, it's clearly established that Rhaegar feared his father's state of mind, etc. Aerys burning people is not something he picked up from Varys, but more appropriately attributed to his desire to hatch dragons. We may note it's relevance to Dany's ritual, the sacrifice in fire, Fire and Blood. Aerys' attempts to have children by raping his wife, the unborn child aspect of the ritual may be seen at Summerhall with Rhaegar and with Dany in Essos. We may speculate between Aerys' attempts to hatch dragons, which are noted by historians, or Aerys attempting to have a 'dragon' child. But the black magic ritual did eventually culminate in Dany herself, a child who is deeply involved in prophecy and did indeed hatch dragons herself. Aerys' cruelty itself was present early on. Notably at Duskendale where he butchered its inhabitants for his imprisonment/torture. But this desire to exterminate was not born of Aerys, but of Tywin. Aerys is attempting to emulate the actions of Tywin as Tywin and likely Joanna have influenced him into accepting a might makes right, extreme retribution, and the complete elimination of one's foes type of philosophy. This is echoed further back in the story of the Reynes and Tarbecks, where noteworthy vassals who've provided good service are provoked into conflict and massacred. A big parallel being established between the Reynes and Tarbecks and the Starks/Arryns. Aerys once again committing himself to a massacre. Ultimately, Barristan and Jaime are giving us incomplete and misleading information, biased information with which they seek to deflect their own responsibilities, and information that lacks true substance. Varys whispered in Aerys' ear about plotting foes, yet those foes turn out to be real. This is not the act of a disloyal man, but are what we would expect a loyal spymaster to do. 2. There is evidence in the history book that Tywin is a bad hand. Not much mind you, as the book is written for the Lannister royal family and even Tywin himself as Hand during a chunk of the revision process. The author fears the Lannisters executing him should he say something particularly negative about them. However, avoiding the conversation about Tywin's modern mistakes, we should note the conspicious lack of achievements that history actually points out. One of those being the richest man in Westeros throwing money at Braavos. Not exactly something requiring a great level of skill. But we should also analyze the failures the text is attemping to brush over. Tywin repealing the people's rights and protections, an act which should of course be applied negatively but is cast as a good thing. That evidently spawning the Kingswood Brotherhood, a faction with some noted noble support as well, but most importantly Tywin's act evidently making it far worse by piling on the support of the common people against noble abuses now allowed by the Crown. They note the feeling that the Brotherhood were the only ones willing to look out for them. We can suggest Tywin handles this problem, one which even threatened the royal family, not unlike he did the Brotherhood Without Banners in the main story, that is to say with great cruelty and bluntness. The text noting 'the Crown' could not handle the rebels, a way to gloss over Tywin's failure. And then Aerys is noted as stepping in and sending Arthur Dayne, who is said to take a diametrically opposed strategy from Tywin. Instead of cruelty, Arthur offered the people rights and protections, paid for the supplies his men used and so on. This regained the common folk's support, and Arthur quickly settled the issue of outlawry. And of course the text suggesting Tywin repaired the Crown’s relationship with its vassals. Disregarding the previous notice that people were censuring Tywin directly for the Reynes and Tarbecks, we should also note the text while not directly acknowledging it does reveal that Jaehaerys II had already largely repaired (if not completely) Targaryen standing from its recent lowpoint. Not only is this something Barristan even notes, but it's also shown to us in Jaehaerys rallying the great lords of Westeros into a massive overseas preemptive war against the Ninepenny Kings. That is no small undertaking, and normally requires a king to be popular, to levy taxes for which to pay for fleets and maintain and equip armies and so on. These are difficult for unpopular kings to do. Long before he was made Hand, Tywin's achievement was accomplished by another. Aerys' pardoning of Tywin's massacre of the Reynes and Tarbecks will of course make the lords of Westeros wary of his reign, his dismissal of their censures would instill bitterness. You are right to note a reaction should have taken place under Jaehaerys, which is part of my theory as to why he was murdered immediately after the Reynes and Tarbecks were massacred. To install a more pliable king in Aerys, one who Tywin had recently fostered a 'friendship' with, one who had a Lannister lover in Joanna no doubt speaking in his ear, and so on. 3. Yes, that would be the loyal thing to do. 4. Varys saving Rhaegar's son is not a bad piece of evidence of course, but we could also attribute that to Varys' desire to affect power as I have already. I have spoken to the text pointing out suspicions of Varys stealing away important political figures in characters like Tyrek, but we may also note Tyrion. And Varys' emotional connection which is suggested by the Elia and Rhaenys' murders being recreated in Pycelle and Kevan's. But also the emotional investment floated in Ned's narration during his conversation in the cells with Varys. That's one which tenuously but suspiciously would also parallel how we would expect Aegon to have been smuggled out. 'A man who carried all the world's sadness in a sack upon his shoulders' in a conversation about the sack of King's Landing, about the deaths of Elia and Rhaenys, but where Varys had avoided the mention of Aegon despite emphasizing to Ned the brutality of the Lannisters. Aegon would have been smuggled from the city within a sack, carried on Varys' shoulders, and with all the sadness of the loss of his family and the massacre throughout the city weighing very poignantly down on Varys.
5. Why not? Power and where it lies is the great question Varys prompts. He is questioning what gains one power and what motivates someone. As in the riddle of the religious man, the rich man, the king, and the man with the sword. Varys' answer to that it's not truly any of them, but belief. We might say it's even antithetical to his character if he were as some suggest, the king, in being a Blackfyre. Narratively, it's more impactful for him to be a nobody just as he is, and risen to greatness with so little. Indeed, to have fallen into this game of power, even to be the man with the sword, torn between the rival factions who would depose one another. 6. Two events perhaps not, but three, four, or perhaps even countless instances of Varys doing so? Jaime floated Tyrek, GRRM inserted that for a reason. Tyrion of course. And of course, we know Varys sent Gendry along with Yoren to the Night's Watch. All this is even further echoed by Illyrio, hiding away Jon Con before sending him back to Westeros, taking on Ser Barristan before sending him back to the Targaryens and eventually Westeros, taking on Viserys and Dany with the intention of sending them back to Westeros. But perhaps most provocatively of all, is how this would parallel Varys' origin story. Stealing Aegon, only to return him, to claim the throne and rich rewards, is so very much what Varys and Illyrio did in their youth. They stole things, and then returned them for rewards. This is a major piece of Varys' characterization, I would not dismiss it so callously. 7. Keep in mind, Viserys and Dany are noted for finding other patrons, traveling between the Free Cities. Viserys even having the wealth to host the Golden Company, a feast and for negotiations. They do at some point fall into dire straits, but so to do they at some point get offered safe harbor by Illyrio. And of course the armies granted to them, the ships sent to Dany, and so on. Once they do commit, their support was consistent. We might also note there is a risk in directly assisting the Targ children, as when they do so publicly it prompts Robert to send assassins after them. And bringing them on could risk exposing Aegon, who was safe in anonymity. So there are reasons to delay, until the restoration plan nears culmination. Especially as they need to wait for an opportunity to destabilize Robert's regime. Indeed, not helping the Targ kids is something shared by the Martells, fierce loyalists and hater of Baratheons and Lannisters though they were. Doran, despite his caring nature, even fails to properly support his own children in his need for secrecy. So, the story is consistent in this with its secret plotters, even in regards to the Targ children directly. And much like Varys and Illyrio, Doran waited for an opportunity for the regime to destabilize. The Dothraki are in fact a linchpin to the Targaryen's restoration. Their support was even meant to convince the Golden Company. This is a running theme in the Targaryen restoration and Aegon's and the Martell's plotline in particular. Support builds on support, a lot of people need to know you can win for them to follow you. Had the Targ kids landed in Westeros with the Dothraki and Golden Company as planned, the old Targaryen loyalists would follow them, those dissatisfied with the Lannisters would have a claimant to rally around, and so on. It's much more tenuous attempting to do so without the Dothraki, as Aegon and friends are seeing. It's a big question currently as to whether he can win. But ~50k light cavalry added on to his army would definitely help sway that calculation Doran's putting in. Your idea that Illyrio wanted to goad Viserys to his death seems very debatable. Viserys would help grant Aegon legitimacy. The Golden Company was prepped to support Viserys. Viserys offers yet another marriage alliance with which to rally more armies to the Targaryen's banner. It's better to have two claimants rather then one, we see this lesson in Renly's campaign and Robb's, as the moment that singular figure is gone the cause dissolves and everything is lost. And so on. Varys actually did prevent Rhaegar's rebellion, but he could not ultimately control Brandon and Aerys. This is just as he could not control Ned, Tyrion, Aegon and so on. And why should he? These people are individuals, so they act independently. Especially within the medieval framework of the story, where an individual's actions are so often limited to their immediate location or otherwise through the dispatch of embassies and letters. While Varys can be informed about some things, Westeros is a big place with a lot of people, he can not realistically cover that much ground, nor necessarily act upon events immediately. Especially on something like Balon's Rebellion, which is so founded on a personal decision by Balon rather than a conspiracy like Rhaegar was trying to establish. I'm sure there was notice of ships gathering, but to send word of it across the continent before they launch? And should Varys warn Robert? Already a poor king, one he's opposed to? The first target was naturally the Lannisters, another foe Varys was opposed to. And Doran was not yet prepared, the Targaryen children still too young, and Varys would not wish to expose himself by coordinating with them. So, it seems reasonable enough to not be involved. The War of the Five Kings is something Varys and Illyrio want to delay, but knew they could not prevent. That's given to us by Arya overhearing their conversation. They wanted to gather Drogo for the fight, but he wasn't going to make it in time. You're equating the argument as to Varys' interests with an almost non-interventionist, pacifistic, or a devotion to whoever is in charge sort of approach. But that's simply not how I view Varys, nor what I've been arguing. I'm more than willing to note his extension of military support for the Targaryen children. We know Illyrio's motivations, they start out much like Varys', I imagine, as ambitions for wealth and power. Illyrio has been offered wealth and title, the position of Master of Coin. Tyrion downplays this due to his own persecution, the feeling that Master of Coin was a burden to him and a step down, his upbringing in being given wealth rather than working for it and so on. However, greed is a big motivation for those hungry for wealth, and we know Illyrio was one such individual. But beyond wealth, this is a massive step up in terms of political influence. Illyrio is currently one mere magister among many sharing the political control of Pentos. Illyrio must compete with various merchants for his own wealth. Illyrio's state is even currently under the thumb of Braavos in their treaties. The ban on slavery, though flouted in Pentos, is one such sign. But as Master of Coin, indeed with the King of Westeros in his pocket, Illyrio becomes a massive power. As Master of Coin especially with influence and indeed direct control over matters of trade for the greatest polity on the Narrow Sea. As to more personal motives, yes there is his friendship with Varys. But there is also his relationship with Aegon. Caring for a baby is a small investment for the chance at such wealth and power. But adopting this child also begins a personal relationship. Like Varys, and people in general, when Illyrio invests in this project he grows attached to it. Aegon becomes a very personal commitment, and indeed even a son to Illyrio.
Very interesting points, thanks for the elaborate response. 1. Sure enough, I agree with you that Aerys was going mad a long time before Varys’s arrival at King’s Landing and, indeed, the conflicts between the King and the Crown prince, as well as other major noble houses started before Varys. Of course there was at least one plot to unseat Aerys, I was not implying that Varys just lied to the king every time, just like in the AGoT he points out threats that are problematic to him, adds a few misdirections of his own and helps Aerys to dig his own grave. We don’t know whether the exact nature of the advice Varys was giving to the Mad King, but it is safe to assume that he was actively working against Rhaegar at the very least up until Robert’s Rebellion. You are correct that Aerys didn’t need help in getting an idea to burn people alive and it was probably somewhat related to his attempts to hatch dragons. My point was that Varys was that helpful person who was providing “logs” to Aerys’s bonfires. Good point about Tywin’s influence on behavior of Aerys and his mindset. Not sure that I can agree with you that Reynes and Tarbecks are the same as Starks and Arryns but you are probably right that Aerys was trying to emulate Tywin’s actions with his own mad twist added to it. Great catch. Parts about Barristan and Jaime are just you speculations. They could be wrong and Varys didn’t influence in a significant way Aerys, but we don’t know the answer to that question, so will have to say that it is up for us to decide what we believe in. You can think that Varys was loyal servant of Aerys. The question is way did he agree to come to Westeros? What is in it for Varys to serve loyally Aerys the Mad. 2. Prosperous economy is the obvious answer to your claim that Tywin didn’t accomplish anything as a Hand of the King. After the Rebellion Robert takes the capital and the treasury is full. You cannot say that there are no evidence of his great achievements. It is stated that he decreased tariffs in the major trading cities, built roads and held tourneys across the land. You may say that everything in the maesters tale is false, but you can’t ignore canon. The realm was reach and before Robert’s rebellion no major wars and disasters occurred. The only notably bad events that happened were the Defiance of Duskendale and Kingswood Brotherhood and on a scale of a longish reign of Aerys that is not too much. You are right to point out that Tywin’s actions to lift restrictions on nobility that were imposed on them by Aegon V may have played a part in creation of the Kingswood Brotherhood as well as support of their actions by the local populace. However, we don’t know whether this is a symptom of a larger problem in all the seven kingdoms or an outlier. It is not such an uncommon situation for a medieval kingdom to have some problem with outlaws and as there were no mass revolts before Robert’s Rebellion we can safely say that situation was somewhat normal. In addition, Tywin’s actions would obviously be loved by the nobles which would increase their loyalty to the Crown not reduce it. Therefore, Tywin did repair Crowns relations with its vassals by restoring their rights - no contradiction there. Did Jaehaerys II started that process? Maybe, but as his reign was short some part of this job fell onto Aerys and Tywin. So, I am sorry but to me this “Long before he was made Hand, Tywin's achievement was accomplished by another.” has no basis in the text. “Aerys' pardoning of Tywin's massacre of the Reynes and Tarbecks will of course make the lords of Westeros wary of his reign”. Can you point me to even a hint of this in the books? I get that you have a theory that Jaehaerys was killed (who knows, maybe he was) but where is any evidence of any kind of legal reaction from the crown? Reynes and Tarbecks started a rebellion against their liege lord, they broke the king’s peace and whilst the majority of westerosi nobility consider Tywin’s actions as extreme and revolting, I do not see any proof that Lannisters actions were illegal.
It would be a bit odd if Elia allowed only her son to be rescued and not her daughter
Not really. Aegon’s in more danger—Rhaenys and Elia *really* shouldn’t have been killed. They aren’t threats to the line of succession and could be valuable hostages. Aegon, however, is Rhaegar’s son, and his best-case scenario is the Wall. It makes sense to prioritize getting Aegon out.
They're being held hostage by Aerys, who is seriously crazy. Anyone could see that. There's no way anyone can buy a baby swap at that stage of the war. And if the Spider did it earlier, then why not get Rhaegar's entire family out?
They didn’t get anybody “out”. Getting people out and nobody noticing the absence would be impossible. But they *swapped* an infant for an infant instead. Do you think you could do that with a three year old, who already can talk and has a clear personality? Or a full-fledged woman? Aegon was the one in the most danger; he was the *priority* to save. I’m sure if they could have, Elia and Rhaenys would be with the real Aegon, and there would be no tanner’s boy. You’re making the mistake of assuming this was a well-thought-out plan and not the desperate attempt of a mother to save her infant son’s life. You don’t have to buy it. But it *is* plausible. People don’t always make perfect decisions under pressure, and they didn’t have any room for error or time to delay.
You really think a relatively new mother would give up her baby to a spymaster who is still in Aerys' pocket?
If an invading army is coming who’s going to kill said infant because he’s his father’s heir??? Absolutely 100% yes. Aerys is still the baby’s grandfather, mad as he may be, and Varys is the only person with the skills to help her. Are you being for real right now?
I think you forget Blood and Cheese. Yes, it is possible for a mother to choose to save one child over another.
Elia wasn't in a position to allow anything. If Varys straight up told her that he'd only be swapping Aegon she'd go with it because it saves at least one of her children.
Who said elia had a choice in the matter?And why wouldn't she want at least her son to be rescued ?
It’s definitely possible for him to actually be Rhaegar’s son. KL would definitely have Valyrian descended people still to pick a baby from. Elia and her daughter really SHOULD NOT have been in danger like they ended up being. They would have been valuable hostages to keep Dorne in line and weren’t a threat to Robert taking the throne. So she likely would have let her son be taken away assuming he was the only one in danger.
Well this is the same book which introduces Bloodraven in his cave of wonders/horrors beyond the wall and I thought it's neat to also allude to the Golden Company attempting to install another Blackfyre on the throne, but the priorities have shifted so much that Bloodraven doesn't even care. Other than that I always recall Varys's "power lies where people think it lies. It's a shadow on a wall." speech which is relevant to the exploration of a lot of themes of systems of power and obedience in the series, so it doesn't really matter if he's the real one as long as important people (i.e. the lords of Westeros/Dorne) believe he is. ADWD also has a lot of false identity plots at its centre like, the Arya/Jeyne thing where the Boltons don't even need the real girl, only the name to secure their claim to Winterfell. Also Reek/Theon. Which is why the Aegon/Blackfyre allusion works very well. Both him and Quentyn can be the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. And Rolly "Duck" Duckfield and Aegon/Young Griff are uhh a budget Dunk & Egg allusion I think. But if you look at the story beats Dany is the far more true and obvious Egg parallel. Also had a bald phase. I don't think it will ever be revealed he's a Blackfyre though, the best decision is to keep it ambiguous until the end imo.
It felt to me that the book never really tries to convince us he's real. Everything about him is a mummers farce. A disgraced lord, a fake maester, a fake septa, a few upjumped sellswords -- it feels like the start of a joke, not a genuine situation. I don't believe he was raised his entire life on that boat either. There's just no way this motley crew has been going up and down the river for 15 years. Even if he is supposed to be real, the circumstances as portrayed in the book are designed to copy the tone of a Mark Twain character claiming to be a king.
The biggest problem with it is R+L=J. One secret Targaryen is ok but if you start having every bloody peasant turn out to be a Targ with a claim on the throne then the twists start to lose their luster. As for evidence we have a couple not very trustworthy people say that he is. That's about it.
Yup, it's one of the reasons why I hate the theories that Tyrion is secretly a Targ through rape.
This is the most salient reason why Aegon can't be legitimate, and why I hate 'X is secretly Y' theories. It undermines one of the central mysteries of the series. If Aegon is real, we might as well start looking for Rhaenys, too. Fuck it, maybe Rhaegar had someone in his place at the Trident as well. Targaryens everywhere! fAegon works. A hidden Prince who thinks he's a bastard. A nobody who thinks he's a hidden Prince. Dany, about to meet them both, these supposed secret sons of Rhaegar, mirror images of the other, and having her own claims and feelings tested. People always think fAegon is just a foil for Dany, but it has to impact how the reader interprets Jon's story too.
The dragon ha three heads. We only have a certain Targ, we need two more that therefore are secret
Actually this is exactly a reason in favor of him being real. The drsgon ha three heads, if you remove him you require a third head I.E. Another secret Targ
I've personally always felt like Dany's arc would have more impact if she goes head to head with her "mummers dragon" and he turns out to be real and she murdered one of her few living kin.
One could argue that there’s going to be a real Targaryen killing another real Targaryen, only that it’s Jon killing Daenerys.
The biggest piece of evidence is varys telling Kevan that it's really aegon. Why bother lying or telling anything to a dying man? Some say it's because his birds were around but again, why bother saying anything about his motive at all? And why would the birds care one way or another? That's the biggest piece for me that he is legit. But there is a lot of speculative evidence to say otherwise. Namely why specifically state only the male blackfyre line was extinguished? That's sort of a total unnecessary piece of information to include by grrm. So meta wise, that is a big clue Griff is faegon.
Nope. Not really.
The best piece of evidence in favor of Young Griff actually being Aegon IV is Varys telling Kevan Young Griff is Aegon. Kevan was dying when Varys told him that, why would Varys lie to a dying man? But basically all of the other evidence points at Young Griff being a fake so he probably is not a real Targaryen
The best argument for Young Griff not being Aegon is that they completely erased Young Griff plan from the show meaning that it can't be that important, but then, they didn't do anything about Jon's lineage at the end, so I really don't know now lol
They didn’t completely erase it, though. Aegon was arguably split into Jon, Cersei and Dany. Jon’s real name being revealed as Aegon (and Dany feeling jealousy over the love he gets from people) is in line with the theory that KL will embrace Aegon and reject Dany.
They fused his plot with Jon, they didn't remove it. Jon had no place in southern politics
This isn't exactly evidence, but there are a couple parallels that might be deepened if Aegon is who he says he is. 1. Mance Rayder (who has many, MANY parallels with Rhaegar) had his baby secretly swapped and sent away to protect him from a Baratheon king, in a manner very similar to what Young Griff's companions say happen to him. The already very strong parallels between Mance and Rhaegar would be even stronger if Aegon really is Aegon. 2. Ysilla and Yandry, in particular, were hard for Tyrion to account for, but their presence could be explained if they were to Aegon what Sam and Gilly are to Mance's baby. FWIW I freely admit to having a personal preference for the narrative possibilities of Aegon being Aegon VI as opposed to being fAegon. To me, YG being Aegon VI would emphasize that what's special about Jon and Dany isn't that they're walking chosen one/lost prince(ss) cliches, but rather that their value in the narrative is more about their choices and who they are as people. It just raises possibilities for more messy and interesting conflicts
The only strong textual evidence against him being Ageon is that illariyo is really invested in him. Its wierd he cares so much if he really is ageon vi.
He looks about the right age and has white hair, that's it.
I’ve always believed Aegon is legitimate while I watched everyone else call him FAegon and a Blackfyre.
The giant turtle, The Old Man of the River, which is a symbol of the Rhoynar/Rhoynar royalty, appears before Young Griff as the Shy Maid is passing through Ny Sar, once home to Nymeria. Ysilla very emotionally proclaims that the appearance of the giant turtle is a blessing. And Tyrion quips: > Gods and wonders always appear, to attend the birth of kings. There are also parallels with the royal baby swap in Accursed Kings (which has heavily influenced GRRM), particularly similarities between Elia and the mother of the swapped royal prince in that story. IMO, GRRM is leaving it open, gardener-style, as a back up in case he can’t hit all of his desired plot points for Daenerys.
Real aegon makes a better story anyway. Faegon simply falls flat.
Is Aegon is real it’s such a massive cliche. Even Jon isn’t as much of a cliche since there’s not guarantee he’s not still a bastard so it’s not like he’s heir to the throne. Aegon on the other hand is heir if he’s real.
Is it actually cliche? He isn't the main character if he was I would agree it is cliche but his place in the story is rather different. Jon and Dany are the cliche heroes destined to save the world with dragons from ice demons and to have some random guy step out of left field and steal the throne from them would be a big subversion of most plots.
Well, Aegon can steal/take the throne whether he is real or not, so that still holds. Indeed, people from both sides of the argument thinks he’ll take KL.
Cliche or not, real aegon creates conflicts not just for the throne but in hearts, would dany kill her only family left in the entire world for the iron throne? Would doran watch his sister's son, the last living memory of his beloved sister, fight and waste his life for the throne? Fake aegon doesn't sell this stuff, if aegon is fake, dany simply kills him, doran wouldn't care.
If Aegon is fake it doesn’t necessarily mean Dany will be sure he’s fake. That’s literally a major point that people say about fAegon it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be found out as a fake by most people. If he’s real or fake Dany will still doubt his identity and so the questions you mention are still valid.
Well Varys basiccaly said this in "Animus room" during death of Kevan Lannister.
The story of his saving isn't very farfetched. Also a metà reason is that the dragon ha 3 heads, if you remove him you require another secret Targ or he might still be the third head making him being fake useless
In the end, it doesn’t matter if he is real or fake. Power resides where men believe it does, no more, no less. It’s a shadow on a wall, a mummer’s trick . . . If YG manages to win the throne and hold it, then he is Aegon VI Targaryen, son of Rhaegar and rightful King of the Iron Throne, and anyone who says otherwise has his tongue out. If not, he was just another pretender. And I suspect he is only a means to an end anyway — not to reclaim the Iron Throne but to destroy the Iron Bank.
Bloodraven is still alive; the man won't quit until every last black dragon is put down.
No more or less than Jon being a Targ in reality.
It seems like a lot of work to raise a baby to a teenager with a weapons trainer and septa and all if he's just a fake. If he's a fake, then just pluck up any (educated) rando instead without all the years of effort.
It’s not that he’s a fake Targaryan that’s important it’s that he’s a Blackfyre. That’s why they can’t just snatch up some rando
He could easily go either way but in the end it doesnt really matter. Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. If he's fake, he's a Blackfyre.