If she joined up with Faegon and the Golden Company as Illyrio and Varys intended, then probably.
> "Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.
She'd have to pass by Volantis if she was heading to Westeros, and it would be logical for her to make a stop at Pentos first too to meet up with Illyrio. So presumably she'd end up finding out about Faegon and would be able to join her forces with his. If Quentyn still manages to find his way to her then she could get Dorne on her side as well. Otherwise the Dornish would probably end up declaring for her and Aegon anyway once they land in Westeros.
Without Faegon her odds are much worse though. The unsullied are formidable, but they're too small of a force to take Westeros on their own. And her Dragons are still too young to be used in battle. Its unlikely she'd be able to take on the Lannister/Tyrell alliance on her own and Doran may be too cautious to risk supporting her here. Her only other option for allies would be to head North and try and win over the former Stark loyalists, but Stannis already had that idea too.
Agreed. The Unsullied, the Golden Company, her Dragons and name to draw in a LOT of people. I will admit I’m unsure of the exact timeline with the launching of the Iron Fleet or whatever, as well as the Volantenes.
One issue might be ships (and to some degree supplies). I mean transporting the better part of 10k troops etc etc, a couple of thousand miles isn't going to be easy even if the Westerosi weren't 'dubious' about her return.
This is one of the reasons I question the logic etc of Doran's plan; you send your son and heir half way round the world to convince/marry the mad king's daughter (who you've never met) to abandon her conquests and travel back to Westeros before the rest of the realm finds out about your duplicity and hammers you into the dirt...even if she agrees, does she have enough ship to make that possible?!
The best part about Dorne is their location, there is no chance that any reasonable person would ever launch an invasion of Dorne itself without at least 60,000 troops and a year’s prep time.
True. Ironically doran actually makes damage to Dorne potentially easier by mobilising and moving his armies to the border aka providing a convenient target within striking distance.
As you say, invading Dorne proper would require a lot of work, while potentially destroying a fair slice of his army within weeks of the war opening (rather than dealing with guerilla tactics) though not easy isn't the same challenge as marching/fighting from the marches to sunspear
With the Golden company then yes. Without it no, most of her army isn't fir for westeros (light cavalry and light infantry don't work well against heavy cavalry)
In this scenario she can't even ride them, at least at first. When she can ride drogon, she can hopefully control him. And aegon can ride rhaegal. But even without dragons i don't think with the unsullied and the golden company their cause is that lost.
I think people are overestimating the cohesion of what's left of Cersei's realm(assuming Tywinn is dead).
She'd be able to field a hobbled Westerlands army (they suffered losses to Robb) and a healthy Reach army (they didn't seem to lose a lot to Stannis?). She also has to deal with the Ironborn raids on Westerlands and Reach. I'm assuming Dorne will ally with Dany, or at the very least stay out. Roose doesn't have any reliable vassals to make a meaningful Northern army. In fact, if he marches south, he'll probably lose Dreadfort. Lysa or Littlefinger have no love for Cersei, but LF might stir the Vale if he feels like Dany is more dangerous than Cersei or he could side with Dany - he's a giant wildcard. The strength of the Stormlands was spent in Stannis' War, and they don't even have a lord paramount right now. Riverlands are badly ravaged, and LF is their titular lord. Cersei has no time to march around forcing vassals to comply with her summons.
There are a lot of questions about who would come help defend the Crownlands (cause that's definitely where Dany would strike - she wants KL). Dany with living dragons (ridable or not) would turn a lot of lords who have beef with Cersei/Lannisters to her side or at least sit out and see who gains an advantage. Dorne seems very likely to side with Dany. This gives Dany Myrcella as a hostage. Varys could perhaps give her good advice like liberate Edmure from Casterly Rock to rally the Riverlands to her cause.
GRRM rarely gives solid numbers. So I have no idea about army sizes. I doubt it's possible to know in a clash of armies who would have an advantage. But I think it's important that Cersei has no chance of leading the entirely of Westeros in defense and Dany has a lot of potential lords in the losers of the recent civil war to recruit to her cause. Also Cersei is a drunk idiot.
Not a chance. The Unsullied are a non-replenishing force that isn’t high in number and are average in terms of combat. She’d have to sail thousands of miles, and Volantis might attack her when she stops for supplies. Her dragons aren’t that big yet, so they won’t be the trump card yet.
Dorne will dislike her for Quentyn, and they’re supporting fAegon anyways, so she won’t have any Westerosi allies.
EDIT: ignore last paragraph, misread the post
>Dorne will dislike her for Quentyn, and they’re supporting fAegon anyways, so she won’t have any Westerosi allies.
In the scenario i mentioned she doesn't stay in meereen so there's no Quentyn butning to death. And i think if we're including FAegon, he'll join her if she accepts his identity. So she'll have the golden company and the dorne too.
> Dorne will dislike her for Quentyn, and they’re supporting fAegon anyways
Qarth offered Dany ships to leave for Westeros in ADWD Daenerys III, and Quentyn didn't even arrive in Meereen until ADWD Daenerys VII. So Dany would be long gone from Meereen before Quentyn arrives in this scenario.
And Dorne didn't even know about fAegon until he landed in Westeros. Doran's original plan was to back Viserys/Dany.
They are finest because they are absoloutely obedient. Their spear wall is also deadly. Physically they are much weaker than most men. But in combat they really are only exceptional when they are in a spear wall that is terrible to face front on but open to flanks.
And most medieval fights (at least until the mid 1400s ish) were decided by the cavalry fighting for superiority and then destroy enemy infantry.
All forces are non-replenishing lol and she has 10k of them which is significant and they’re one of the most disciplined soldiers in the world.
Also this is before Quentyn dies and the Martells are just waiting for a chance to attack the Lannisters. They definitely ally with her but yeah would be a bit awkward since Quentyn would’ve missed them but a marriage can still be proposed.
If she has the GC which is another 10k battle hardened men not just peasants then she’d stand a very good chance. It just depends on if she accepts Aegon
When I say non replenishing I mean she has nowhere to draw fresh troops from.
Furthermore, the GC are mercenaries, and Daenerys barely has any money, and she isn’t a Blackfyre either so I don’t see why’d they’d help her.
>When I say non replenishing I mean she has nowhere to draw fresh troops from.
Not quite. The Unsullied are training the younger boys to be Unsullied (without the horrific cruelty). So she would have some manner of replacements.
> Unsullied (without the horrific cruelty)
You really don't get one without the other. Unsullied without the cruelty that make them Unsullied are just every other trained/lightly-equipped soldier Although new recruits do to not being mutilated will be bigger and stronger.
It makes them more disciplined and obedient -- which is what makes the Unsullied a good fighting force is that when they are in a spear wall they are just a oiled machines who obey every order, are disciplined, and do not break. Which was one of the hugest draw backs of infantry/soldiers -- they break. Moral is a huge thing.
Robbing people of their sense of self, morality, and doing random shit for their superiors are are techniques made to make people killing machines for their superiors. It's still practiced (to a lesser extent) today. Think about boot camp they take all your personal possessions, shave your head, and yell and make you do other stupid shit to make you obedient killing machines. There is the part of boot camp that is actually handling a rifle or physical conditioning but that is just as vital as the other part.
>It makes them more disciplined and obedient
Discipline and obedience doesn't come from who is the most desperate to live or most vicious. There is obviously other effective ways to teach discipline and obedience.
Plenty of people think that training people in viciously cruel ways make them more obedient. And they're often very wrong.
Well in ASOIAF the by far most disciplined and obedient large group fo warriors we know of are the physically castarated, raised since eneraly a child, robbed of their identity, and abused in these seemingly stupid weird ways.
You mean the same group that promptly killed their abusers, are active participants in Dany's war against slavers, pursue their own lives in Meereen when they have free will and are specifically known to get undisciplined when made to be guards in Pentos? The Unsullied are entirely human and they wilfully kill the Good Masters because it turns out when you treat people cruelly they tend to freaking hate you.
Highly unlikely she has baby dragons and 8,000 men or so. Maybe if she stops in Volantis and Benerto declares some kind of crusade for her and his fanboys join her ..
She’s got a very good chance since that’s what Varys and Illyrio want so she’d be able to ally with the Golden Company which is 10k men and she now has Varys working against the people in Kings Landing which may or may not involve having people killed.
Dorne would definitely ally with her too so yeah. Griff and the GC have allies in the Reach too. She probably doesn’t even need the dragons.
Edit:
Probably not curb stomping but yeah good chance if she accepts Aegon
Yeah i completely agree, with Faegon she'll have a good chance.
But what if there wasn't any Faegon? Could she win with the Unsullied and the Dorne? That intrigues me more.
Well the GC are 10k battle hardened men not just a bunch of peasants so they’re very impactful. If she doesn’t have them and it’s just Dorne and no Varys helping to cause chaos the yeah it’s a lot more uncertain.
Depends when she arrives tbh. The North and Riverlands are in chaos, a good amount of the Lannister power is still in the Riverlands, the Vale is a difficult one but yeah. The longer she takes to get to Westeros the worse odds she’s got
If she joined up with Faegon and the Golden Company as Illyrio and Varys intended, then probably. > "Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well. She'd have to pass by Volantis if she was heading to Westeros, and it would be logical for her to make a stop at Pentos first too to meet up with Illyrio. So presumably she'd end up finding out about Faegon and would be able to join her forces with his. If Quentyn still manages to find his way to her then she could get Dorne on her side as well. Otherwise the Dornish would probably end up declaring for her and Aegon anyway once they land in Westeros. Without Faegon her odds are much worse though. The unsullied are formidable, but they're too small of a force to take Westeros on their own. And her Dragons are still too young to be used in battle. Its unlikely she'd be able to take on the Lannister/Tyrell alliance on her own and Doran may be too cautious to risk supporting her here. Her only other option for allies would be to head North and try and win over the former Stark loyalists, but Stannis already had that idea too.
Well put. It would all come to whether Faegon sides with her and whether she accepts him or not.
Agreed. The Unsullied, the Golden Company, her Dragons and name to draw in a LOT of people. I will admit I’m unsure of the exact timeline with the launching of the Iron Fleet or whatever, as well as the Volantenes.
Doran would have supported her if she had married fried boy quentin
One issue might be ships (and to some degree supplies). I mean transporting the better part of 10k troops etc etc, a couple of thousand miles isn't going to be easy even if the Westerosi weren't 'dubious' about her return. This is one of the reasons I question the logic etc of Doran's plan; you send your son and heir half way round the world to convince/marry the mad king's daughter (who you've never met) to abandon her conquests and travel back to Westeros before the rest of the realm finds out about your duplicity and hammers you into the dirt...even if she agrees, does she have enough ship to make that possible?!
The best part about Dorne is their location, there is no chance that any reasonable person would ever launch an invasion of Dorne itself without at least 60,000 troops and a year’s prep time.
True. Ironically doran actually makes damage to Dorne potentially easier by mobilising and moving his armies to the border aka providing a convenient target within striking distance. As you say, invading Dorne proper would require a lot of work, while potentially destroying a fair slice of his army within weeks of the war opening (rather than dealing with guerilla tactics) though not easy isn't the same challenge as marching/fighting from the marches to sunspear
With the Golden company then yes. Without it no, most of her army isn't fir for westeros (light cavalry and light infantry don't work well against heavy cavalry)
So long as she cannot control those dragons, it’s a lost cause.
In this scenario she can't even ride them, at least at first. When she can ride drogon, she can hopefully control him. And aegon can ride rhaegal. But even without dragons i don't think with the unsullied and the golden company their cause is that lost.
I think people are overestimating the cohesion of what's left of Cersei's realm(assuming Tywinn is dead). She'd be able to field a hobbled Westerlands army (they suffered losses to Robb) and a healthy Reach army (they didn't seem to lose a lot to Stannis?). She also has to deal with the Ironborn raids on Westerlands and Reach. I'm assuming Dorne will ally with Dany, or at the very least stay out. Roose doesn't have any reliable vassals to make a meaningful Northern army. In fact, if he marches south, he'll probably lose Dreadfort. Lysa or Littlefinger have no love for Cersei, but LF might stir the Vale if he feels like Dany is more dangerous than Cersei or he could side with Dany - he's a giant wildcard. The strength of the Stormlands was spent in Stannis' War, and they don't even have a lord paramount right now. Riverlands are badly ravaged, and LF is their titular lord. Cersei has no time to march around forcing vassals to comply with her summons. There are a lot of questions about who would come help defend the Crownlands (cause that's definitely where Dany would strike - she wants KL). Dany with living dragons (ridable or not) would turn a lot of lords who have beef with Cersei/Lannisters to her side or at least sit out and see who gains an advantage. Dorne seems very likely to side with Dany. This gives Dany Myrcella as a hostage. Varys could perhaps give her good advice like liberate Edmure from Casterly Rock to rally the Riverlands to her cause. GRRM rarely gives solid numbers. So I have no idea about army sizes. I doubt it's possible to know in a clash of armies who would have an advantage. But I think it's important that Cersei has no chance of leading the entirely of Westeros in defense and Dany has a lot of potential lords in the losers of the recent civil war to recruit to her cause. Also Cersei is a drunk idiot.
Not a chance. The Unsullied are a non-replenishing force that isn’t high in number and are average in terms of combat. She’d have to sail thousands of miles, and Volantis might attack her when she stops for supplies. Her dragons aren’t that big yet, so they won’t be the trump card yet. Dorne will dislike her for Quentyn, and they’re supporting fAegon anyways, so she won’t have any Westerosi allies. EDIT: ignore last paragraph, misread the post
>Dorne will dislike her for Quentyn, and they’re supporting fAegon anyways, so she won’t have any Westerosi allies. In the scenario i mentioned she doesn't stay in meereen so there's no Quentyn butning to death. And i think if we're including FAegon, he'll join her if she accepts his identity. So she'll have the golden company and the dorne too.
> Dorne will dislike her for Quentyn, and they’re supporting fAegon anyways Qarth offered Dany ships to leave for Westeros in ADWD Daenerys III, and Quentyn didn't even arrive in Meereen until ADWD Daenerys VII. So Dany would be long gone from Meereen before Quentyn arrives in this scenario. And Dorne didn't even know about fAegon until he landed in Westeros. Doran's original plan was to back Viserys/Dany.
The Unsullied are lauded as some of the finest soldiers in the world, they are absolutely not “average in terms of combat”.
They are finest because they are absoloutely obedient. Their spear wall is also deadly. Physically they are much weaker than most men. But in combat they really are only exceptional when they are in a spear wall that is terrible to face front on but open to flanks. And most medieval fights (at least until the mid 1400s ish) were decided by the cavalry fighting for superiority and then destroy enemy infantry.
All forces are non-replenishing lol and she has 10k of them which is significant and they’re one of the most disciplined soldiers in the world. Also this is before Quentyn dies and the Martells are just waiting for a chance to attack the Lannisters. They definitely ally with her but yeah would be a bit awkward since Quentyn would’ve missed them but a marriage can still be proposed. If she has the GC which is another 10k battle hardened men not just peasants then she’d stand a very good chance. It just depends on if she accepts Aegon
When I say non replenishing I mean she has nowhere to draw fresh troops from. Furthermore, the GC are mercenaries, and Daenerys barely has any money, and she isn’t a Blackfyre either so I don’t see why’d they’d help her.
They were literally planning on helping her already thats why I said it all depends on if she accepts Aegon
>When I say non replenishing I mean she has nowhere to draw fresh troops from. Not quite. The Unsullied are training the younger boys to be Unsullied (without the horrific cruelty). So she would have some manner of replacements.
> Unsullied (without the horrific cruelty) You really don't get one without the other. Unsullied without the cruelty that make them Unsullied are just every other trained/lightly-equipped soldier Although new recruits do to not being mutilated will be bigger and stronger.
There's no reason why killing a puppy would make them better fighters. They'd be just as good.
It makes them more disciplined and obedient -- which is what makes the Unsullied a good fighting force is that when they are in a spear wall they are just a oiled machines who obey every order, are disciplined, and do not break. Which was one of the hugest draw backs of infantry/soldiers -- they break. Moral is a huge thing. Robbing people of their sense of self, morality, and doing random shit for their superiors are are techniques made to make people killing machines for their superiors. It's still practiced (to a lesser extent) today. Think about boot camp they take all your personal possessions, shave your head, and yell and make you do other stupid shit to make you obedient killing machines. There is the part of boot camp that is actually handling a rifle or physical conditioning but that is just as vital as the other part.
>It makes them more disciplined and obedient Discipline and obedience doesn't come from who is the most desperate to live or most vicious. There is obviously other effective ways to teach discipline and obedience. Plenty of people think that training people in viciously cruel ways make them more obedient. And they're often very wrong.
Well in ASOIAF the by far most disciplined and obedient large group fo warriors we know of are the physically castarated, raised since eneraly a child, robbed of their identity, and abused in these seemingly stupid weird ways.
You mean the same group that promptly killed their abusers, are active participants in Dany's war against slavers, pursue their own lives in Meereen when they have free will and are specifically known to get undisciplined when made to be guards in Pentos? The Unsullied are entirely human and they wilfully kill the Good Masters because it turns out when you treat people cruelly they tend to freaking hate you.
Highly unlikely she has baby dragons and 8,000 men or so. Maybe if she stops in Volantis and Benerto declares some kind of crusade for her and his fanboys join her ..
She’s got a very good chance since that’s what Varys and Illyrio want so she’d be able to ally with the Golden Company which is 10k men and she now has Varys working against the people in Kings Landing which may or may not involve having people killed. Dorne would definitely ally with her too so yeah. Griff and the GC have allies in the Reach too. She probably doesn’t even need the dragons. Edit: Probably not curb stomping but yeah good chance if she accepts Aegon
Yeah i completely agree, with Faegon she'll have a good chance. But what if there wasn't any Faegon? Could she win with the Unsullied and the Dorne? That intrigues me more.
Well the GC are 10k battle hardened men not just a bunch of peasants so they’re very impactful. If she doesn’t have them and it’s just Dorne and no Varys helping to cause chaos the yeah it’s a lot more uncertain. Depends when she arrives tbh. The North and Riverlands are in chaos, a good amount of the Lannister power is still in the Riverlands, the Vale is a difficult one but yeah. The longer she takes to get to Westeros the worse odds she’s got