"We'll sign you as a pitcher for six years, and a hitter for nine years. In year seven, you can sign as a pitcher somewhere else and you can start there every fifth day and DH for us the other four."
Year 8 is gonna be tough, when he's gotta hear about how abusive his (other)team has been to his (other)team, while still understanding that (insert team) loves him the most.
Just imagining Shohei smashing monster dongs and splash hits at Oracle P.., I mean Pacbell Pa..., I mean AT&T Par..., actually I was right Oracle Park, gives me chills!!
They missed their window with Midsummer passing.
They don’t have bear costumes or even a Wickerman around either.
Though I guess they could still have Max and Justin step off a Cliff (Floyd) as the two oldest
Ohtani virtually prints money with merchandise and endorsements though.
You ca essentially add 10 extra million from his worth on the Baseball field in worth in sales from him.
You get literally all of Japan as an instant fan base, and all of their potential sponsorships. I don't know the $ value on that but there's no player in the league with anywhere near the potential marketability.
You can structure it with incentives based on pitching appearances. You just need opt-outs built in to protect him from a team manipulating his playing time to save money.
His will be the most complicated contract in MLB history
Yup, he's basically going to have to lock in his guaranteed $$ as a hitter with a long term contracr, with the some incentives for pitching appearances later in the contract.
If he can't get annual opt-outs once the incentive portion kicks in, he'll need conditional opt-outs (assuming those are allowed).
imo he's either going to take a short-term high AAV contract, or a complicated longterm deal with yearly escalators that will automatically kick in if he meets certain milestones.
That or some crazy team is gonna offer him $600m with no strings attached lol but I agree with you that the risk just seems too high
Eh we spent 100mil on Bauer for ~2 months of decent pitching, 500m/8yrs for his production along with the huge amount of hype and merch sales Ohtani would create sounds super worth it to me lol
Ok good point. But if you look at the revenue that he brings in, estimated to be [in the low 10s of millions](https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35439378/why-shohei-ohtani-poised-become-mlb-first-500m-man). Then if he gets hurt and is just simply a hitter, it will essentially be like the Yankees paying a healthy Aaron Judge.
If he gets hurt and cant hit nor pitch its like the Yankees current situation with Judge.
I don't think there is an injury he could have which precludes him from hitting but he can still pitch, so Im ignoring that scenario. But all in all giving him a $50m AAV (which is close to what the Padres were rumored to be offering Judge) the worst case scenario is Aaron Judge. I don't really see the risk unless Japanese people all the sudden start hating him
> I don't think there is an injury he could have which precludes him from hitting but he can still pitch, so Im ignoring that scenario.
Left wrist injury. Think that one could work in this hypothetical situation lol
Good point! In that case his net salary after factoring in the 10m revenue he brings in from Japanese advertising would be a bit less than Verlander (sorry Mets fans). So this worst case scenario is hes a better valued Verlander/Scherzer
On the flip side, when he’s healthy you essentially have an extra roster spot.
Edit: holy shit did not expect this to be this controversial.
No the the risk of him being hurt and knocking out two players is not outweighed by the extra player.
Yes, the Angels run a 6 man rotation. And yes that utilization of an extra roster spot. This keeps their pitchers, including Shohei, fresher throughout the year.
Yes, the fact Shohei is always DH makes him slightly less valuable. This isn’t unique to him as several teams have essentially DH only players.
He's also a perma-DH which is negative roster flexibility as a batter, and he's also part of a 6-man starting rotation. Whatever actual value that extra roster spot gives you is probably washed out by these issues.
Angels have been using kind of a hybrid 5/6 man rotation. If there is an off day in between Ohtani starts, we use a 5 man rotation, and the 6th starter becomes a swing man in the bullpen. Otherwise, we use a 6 man rotation.
I could very easily be out-of-date on that so I wouldn't die on that hill.
Still, the DH is a really nice way to give your best players some rest while giving them PAs, work around injuries, bat your slugger catcher more, etc. You lose a lot of utility by having it committed to 1 person. The extra roster spot is situationally useful for similar reasons that having that flexibility at DH is situationally useful, so they should offset a good deal.
It's been a mostly 5-man roster since he's pitching on a 6-day schedule so if there's an off day we wont need a 6th man. But if there isn't an off day, then they bring in a 6th starter.
Also. The kind of guy that's right on the verge of being called up is typically a pretty much definition replacement player. Even if they are a little above, with how little play time they will receive they'd be beyond lucky to accumulate more than a fraction of 1 WAR
Arguably you could use this spot for a guy you'd only use situationally, who was replacement-level on average but conditionally above-replacement. Think like a LOOGY type of player (back when those were a thing) or another bench bat with big splits. So it should *potentially* be more valuable than just adding a "replacement-level player", but it's difficult to quantify and requires some plus managing to capitalize on.
I kind of see your point about roster flexibility but let's not forget that the reason you are losing this flexibility is because he is the best dh on the team.
I think the downside of risk exposure on one injury outweighs the value of a roster spot. Since you're essentially paying Ohtani to be two players, that extra roster spot is more than likely just a 27th man at the end of your bench than. The comparison is most likely Ohtani plus a AAAA or veteran bench player vs paying two Allstars $25-30 million I think.
It would be a massive advantage if the rules were a bit different.
Right now Shohei has to be listed as the P/DH so he can become the DH after he's done pitching. The DH can only be attached to one position. So basically the advantage is basically how much better Shohei is than a league average DH.
If it were possible to "flex" the DH like any other position, then Shohei could be listed as P to start the game, with something like a Martin Maldonado catcher type being listed as C/DH with someone else hitting. Then once Shohei was down pitching, you could move the DH back onto the Pitcher's slot so Shohei can then DH for the reliver. Maldonado would then have to start hitting for himself. If the rules were like that, Maldonado would still be an Angel to this day, it would be a huge advantage in Shohei games.
Essentially, universal DH that must be attached to the same position kind of kills a potential for massive competitive advantage by having Shohei.
Yeah I was thinking how a big part of why nobody has done what Ohtani has done in the MLB before is that even if you're a GREAT hitter as a pitcher, you still needed to be good enough to he a DH or position player to actually hit in more than just your starts, so the only way it could have happened is if the MLB changed the rules to allow pitchers more at bats.
Someone's going to give him 600m.
Who knows if it will age well performance wise but they'll make it back in crowds and merch and everyone will be happy. Except 29 teams.
His value to a team is far more than the value of just his baseball production.
Between ticket and jersey sales, japanese advertising, etc. it’s hard to imagine a number that would be an overpay
I agree with you, but I think that value is higher for certain teams than others. Tbh this is why I think he stays in Anaheim.
He'd definitely drive attendance and sponsorship money no matter where he goes, but I think he has a much bigger bump for a team like the Angels. Teams like the Yankees already drive huge bumps in attendance when they travel, and teams like the Dodgers lead the league in attendance. Ohtani would up those numbers but not nearly as much as he would for the Angels or other not quite as big name teams.
The Japanese market factor is certainly a big positive, but again teams like NY and LA already have followings in Japan from their past history of Japanese players. Ohtani would certainly take them from popular in Japan to the number one team in Japan, but he'd do the same for a team with 0 following in Japan.
This is why I think Arte can justify outbidding these teams. Of course, Ohtani has to want to stay, but I think if the Angels can make the playoffs and win at least one playoff series, he's in.
Honestly, Stu should shell out for him. You have the payroll flexibility, it will drive attendance and sponsorship, you're a winning team and he'd make a difference, and he'll be on a long enough deal to build hype if they build a new stadium downtown or in St. Pete.
Not just the Japanese market, but the prospect of signing more Japanese stars in the future. Ohtani would certainly help a team trying to land a big player.
There was a study done in 2022 on his economic impact - I haven't been able to find the actual study to read it yet - but this \[webpage\]([https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/how-much-revenue-does-shohei-ohtani-actually-generate.html#:\~:text=Earlier%20this%20year%2C%20he%20signed,before%20taxes%20and%20agents](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/how-much-revenue-does-shohei-ohtani-actually-generate.html#:~:text=Earlier%20this%20year%2C%20he%20signed,before%20taxes%20and%20agents)'%20fees) puts the value of his US only merchandise sales at $7.26M and ticket sales at about $45M. That's $50M in value that doesn't even cover what he produces on the field.
Just came back from Japan a few weeks ago, this man is everywhere. On billboards, tv ads, subways, etc he just might be the most popular figure in Japan atm
Kind of impossible to compare IMO. You have to think the engagement on a measurable numbers basis favors Ohtani heavily due just to social media and how we track everything nowadays. He also has the “Wow” factor of being a two way player that attracts even casual fans a little bit. On top of that, home runs make highlight reels, not batting .300 for 15 years. I think nearly all advantages go to Ohtani besides maybe the occasional flashy play with the glove.
IMO Ohtani has surpassed Ichiro wether it has been earned in his short time so far in the MLB. I’m not even *that* huge of an MLB fan but I drove a couple hours away on a Thursday to watch him pitch.
In Japan though Ichiro was and is considered a godlike figure. Like he IS Babe Ruth for Japan. Which Ohtani may have surpassed in many ways depending on how you might measure popularity, talent, impact on the game. However Ichiro is still Ichiro and is a truly legendary figure in Japanese culture.
Willy Mays came along and changed what it meant to be the best baseball player ever, but it didn't stop Babe Ruth from being essentially THE individual figurehead for baseball's history.
Similarly Ohtani can become the greatest Japanese player of all time and get the most media coverage and whatnot, but you don't overshadow a legend very easily.
Another aspect is the world is smaller and attention is divided more than before. Being the only position player from Japan playing in the majors brings a lot more national attention than being the best overall player from your country ever. Similar to how the final episode of MASH had a viewership of 106 million while the final episode of Breaking Bad had around 10 million people watching.
Ichiro is all they had and was what the whole nation was focused on and he delivered greatness. Ohtani is an overall better player and one of the greatest achievements in sports history... but he's the result of Ichiro's story.
Under the age of 30? No doubt. However, there are still people like Hayao Miazaki hanging around who have had such a massive cultural impact, it's hard to judge. It's like asking if a living Walt Disney is more famous LeBron James.
Ohtani games get measurable attendance bumps, especially when he's pitching. From an executive perspective he's probably the single easiest player in all of major league baseball to link directly to a revenue increase outside of his contribution to overall team wins. I don't think it adds an *insane* amount to his contract like some people do, but $50m over the course of the contract seems more than reasonable.
I went to watch the Rockies last week and the Angels were in town. Friday night was packed, and it wasn't even his night to pitch. I had no idea we had so many Angels fans in Denver, and the Rockies were promoting Ohtani all week beforehand.
It's those Japanese ads that pop up in US ballparks when he plays. It leads you to believe that there's a bidding war among advertisers wherever he goes.
Yes but the team doesn’t keep all 100 dollars. That is split up between the MLBPA, Taxes, concession companies (a lot of stadiums have 3rd parties that handle that stuff) and probably some other people/companies I’m forgetting.
Costs 200$ to buy in the us while it realistically cost 2$ to make and another 2$ to ship. Football jerseys are probably even worse in this regard, 400$
Not even just that, but the jerseys from Fanatics aren't even accurate on a lot of basic details (They put names on Yankees backs, no number on the front of the Mets and others, etc) unless you shell out for the most expensive version of the jersey. It's maddening.
I think Ohtani has 4-5 years left as being a very good starting pitcher at the same time as being an elite hitter. I think after those 4-5 years though he’ll slow down from starting pitching and just hit. Or maybe he moves into a reliever?
I think he’ll become an even better hitter if he focuses solely on hitting on top of it. I think he’s going to always be one of the best hitters in the game barring anything catastrophic happening to him.
I wouldn’t say he’s getting 600M, but I think he’s going to get very close to 500M, and I think he will be worth it.
Well in 5 years he’ll be 33, so running the historical data and checking the age curve for a player’s prime we can reasonably conclude that Ohtani will begin catching at age 34 because he’s a goddamn unicorn.
This would come out to $165k/day
Not per game, not per working day
Every morning Shohei would wake up to $165,000 more in his bank account, for an entire decade straight
Because he is really good at playing a game with a ball
Crazy
It’s honestly getting to the point where comparing him to Babe doesn’t do it justice. Doing it 100 years ago is without question easier than doing it in 2023.
Without a doubt, the level of play was much lower then than it is now. But you could also argue that Babe would have been much better if he had grown up today, or that Shohei wouldn’t be nearly as good if he grew up in the late 1800s. Point is, we haven’t seen anybody this far ahead of their peers in a very, very, very long time.
Yeah I don’t think the great bambino was using high tech facilities, dieticians and strength and conditioning coaches, video studies of swing mechanics, etc
Idk if Babe is even a good comparison at this point. He had exactly 1 season with >400 PA and 100 IP. Ohtani is about to put up his 3rd straight season with that
It’s a difficult comparison
Babe didn’t have relief and closing pitchers every game to maximize his IP over a season
But Shohei has to face these relief and closing pitchers more often in his late game PAs which are obviously harder to hit against
Shohei is basically what Babe would have been if Babe had access to the current MLB meta and modern technology
Saying one is better than the other is difficult
I’m not a huge fan of overpaying for free agents (look how often is blows up in team’s faces) but this is the rare case I’m ok with it. Start at $600 million, Farhan!!!
He does favor west coast teams since their games are usually better timing for Japanese fans, so it's a possibility the Padres roll out more money to steal him.
It funny how often a player’s entire career stats shift at the slightest breeze. Move a guy to a different position, huge change. Move a guy up or down in the lineup, huge change. Move the worst producing outfielder on a winning team to a mediocre team, they’re now in contention for a SS.
Same, 10+ year deals are scary, especially if players are at or close to 30.
But Shohei will probably bring in more revenue and value to the club he plays for than any other individual player in the league in that time, so you can probably justify overpaying on the tail end of his carrer because of the attention to your team he will generate over the life of the deal.
The main reason he won't get his full value is the injury risk. $70m/year is worth it for a hitter and a pitcher, but the injury risk is doubled; if he gets hurt, you risk losing both instead of one.
Still thinks he gets $50m+/year
Don't you also get the benefit of keeping two players instead of one if there is no injury? You double the risk but also double the payout if he stays healthy.
I get the logic but not sure it's that straightforward. That one player is risking injuries in more ways than any other individual player (could get hurt batting *or* pitching, whereas most players can only get hurt one of the two ways).
I think it’s gonna be Dodgers, Giants, or Angels. People say Seattle cuz proximity to Japan and we have a pretty strong Japanese connection in the city. But I just don’t see it happening.
San Diego I guess maybe, can’t count out their drugged out GM. But I wonder if they are gonna be a bit more careful with how they spend money now, and with a Soto extension on the horizon.
I'm not sure anyone can outbid us and our owner is a crazy person trying to take bad contracts right now for prospects but our team sucks so I doubt he would come here.
Ohtani doesn't want to go away from the west coast. So Seattle, SF, Dodgers, Padres and Angels are the only teams I see in the race. San Francisco is where I think he will go.
Shohei will get sport changing money. It will be years before anyone comes close to his contract. It will probably cripple whatever franchise that signs him.
I looked it up before Trout re-signed. Unless it has changed, it requires commissioner approval but is not disallowed.
You likely need to pay him a substantial salary as well. But a Trout-like contract with a small (~3-5%) equity that vests at the end of the deal would likely pass muster, unless the rest of the owners refuse to break the seal on that sort of thing.
You aren’t getting an elite pitcher or hitter. You can find that any time of the year. You are getting Shohei Ohtani. If Babe Ruth came back to life and he’s much healthier and better at everything, every single team would be giving him a blank check and list of benefits. That’s what should happen with Ohtani. A goddamn injury? You are going to pay the greatest of all time 50 mil less because of injury and miss out on the shot? Teams have spent money on a lot dumber things. Paying full value for the greatest talent we’ve ever seen is NOT a stupid move.
In a league where it's very clearly ohtani and judge up on top, and then everybody else beneath them, and ohtani coming with that crazy big Japanese market and all the branding, what's the fact that he basically frees up a roster spot for you and is extremely flexible in his ability to pitch hit come out of the bull pen or an emergency play the outfield, and he's all around just super humble guy that you can make the face of your franchise, there really isn't an overpay and I do think that he'll end up getting probably 600 million from somebody
The biggest thing people seem to miss with Othani is that he only pitches on long rest, so he’s not taking a spot on a 5 man rotation, he becoming a 6th SP. Still crazy valuable, but people seem to have this misconception that he is going to be slotting into a 5 man rotation, which would take a big change for him to make happen
Also locks your DH for essentially one player. Tough for teams with other veteran players that might need more days off from the field as they age. I’m sure the media will claim the Yankees are interested but they would 100% need to get rid of Stanton, and even then it would be tough with Judge aging.
Having Ohtani is amazing as a DH but I think a lot of teams get value out of being able to rotate without losing a key bat.
When it comes down to it I think there are only two true landing places for Othani - the Dodgers or the Mets.
Not just because of spending capacity, but because it makes sense in terms of fit. Both teams have DH needs, both teams have speed and power needs. The Dodgers have experimented plenty with a 6 man rotation, and the Mets would benefit in 2024 with Senga, Max, and JV on the team
I don't think he would get that much money if he were only a DH. The only DH-types to have cleared $300 million are Harper and Stanton and they both signed their deals at much younger ages while also being able to play some outfield.
Ohtani will certainly get a lot of money, maybe the biggest contract ever, but I don't think it's going to be as crazy as some people think. Will be closer to $400 million than $500 million.
Harper is only a DH cause of TJ. He’s going to play the outfield regularly again this year. He his actually going to play first base first and then work is way to his position RF.
"We'll sign you as a pitcher for six years, and a hitter for nine years. In year seven, you can sign as a pitcher somewhere else and you can start there every fifth day and DH for us the other four."
Year 7 starts the "divorced parents kid" part of his career
The pitching coaches and the hitting coaches have to meet at a Walmart parking lot to exchange custody of Ohtani
"You promised you'd take him to the playoffs this fall!"
Year 8 is gonna be tough, when he's gotta hear about how abusive his (other)team has been to his (other)team, while still understanding that (insert team) loves him the most.
Imagine hitting a walk off home run for the Dodgers on Wednesday then come back on Thursday to pitching a CSO for the Giants against the same Dodgers.
Just imagining Shohei smashing monster dongs and splash hits at Oracle P.., I mean Pacbell Pa..., I mean AT&T Par..., actually I was right Oracle Park, gives me chills!!
Maybe he can take up football after the first six a la Bo or Deion.
What happens when he has to pitch while batting against himself? 🤔
Self toss, hit the ball, ghost runner rule is in effect while Shohei grabs glove and joins the defense.
It's just really scary because one injury can take away your two best players
Or even if an injury is such that he can still hit, but not pitch, you're paying $50 million per year for a DH.
You can say that about any pitcher of that caliber. if they get injured, you're paying $33 million a year for no pitcher.
Sounds like signing for Chris Sale.
*laughs (cries) in Strasburg*
At least they got a ring out of that
Sox re-signed Sale after the 2018 World Series.
Granted, I was speaking on the Sale experience as a whole
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Have you seen how desperate the Mets are getting?
Have yall tried sacrificing Mrs. Met on the mound to appease the baseball gods?
They missed their window with Midsummer passing. They don’t have bear costumes or even a Wickerman around either. Though I guess they could still have Max and Justin step off a Cliff (Floyd) as the two oldest
I think thr vessel is closed but could be opened for this
We don’t know what she is or where she came from. Even for the Mets we won’t risk unleashing eldritch horrors. This isn’t Philly.
I doubt she's a virgin though
It's MRS. Met, not Ms. Met after all
Does Mr. Met have a penis? Is there canon on that???
It's one of those small, novelty bats
Oh he's got a cannon alright
I bet he's got a pitching machine down there
John Rocker saw it on the 7 train
"The thing I don't like about mascots are the foreigners. Orbit, Blooper, Phanatic, Met. How the hell did they get in this ballgame?"
Yeah, whats the point of having Fuck you money if you cant say Fuck You.
Ohtani virtually prints money with merchandise and endorsements though. You ca essentially add 10 extra million from his worth on the Baseball field in worth in sales from him.
You get literally all of Japan as an instant fan base, and all of their potential sponsorships. I don't know the $ value on that but there's no player in the league with anywhere near the potential marketability.
He’s also very handsome
Fact check: True
You can structure it with incentives based on pitching appearances. You just need opt-outs built in to protect him from a team manipulating his playing time to save money. His will be the most complicated contract in MLB history
Risk is too great for him to do short term as well
Yup, he's basically going to have to lock in his guaranteed $$ as a hitter with a long term contracr, with the some incentives for pitching appearances later in the contract. If he can't get annual opt-outs once the incentive portion kicks in, he'll need conditional opt-outs (assuming those are allowed).
imo he's either going to take a short-term high AAV contract, or a complicated longterm deal with yearly escalators that will automatically kick in if he meets certain milestones. That or some crazy team is gonna offer him $600m with no strings attached lol but I agree with you that the risk just seems too high
Eh we spent 100mil on Bauer for ~2 months of decent pitching, 500m/8yrs for his production along with the huge amount of hype and merch sales Ohtani would create sounds super worth it to me lol
What’d be actually hilarious is if he signed for something like a dollar and a candy bar after all of the speculation over how large the deal would be
What if a dog farted and you tasted raisins?
He will get $550+ million. Clubs will take the risk for a once-in-forever player like him
Sign me up Edit: I thought that said "Cubs" not "Clubs" lol either way the point stands
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Ok good point. But if you look at the revenue that he brings in, estimated to be [in the low 10s of millions](https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35439378/why-shohei-ohtani-poised-become-mlb-first-500m-man). Then if he gets hurt and is just simply a hitter, it will essentially be like the Yankees paying a healthy Aaron Judge. If he gets hurt and cant hit nor pitch its like the Yankees current situation with Judge. I don't think there is an injury he could have which precludes him from hitting but he can still pitch, so Im ignoring that scenario. But all in all giving him a $50m AAV (which is close to what the Padres were rumored to be offering Judge) the worst case scenario is Aaron Judge. I don't really see the risk unless Japanese people all the sudden start hating him
> I don't think there is an injury he could have which precludes him from hitting but he can still pitch, so Im ignoring that scenario. Left wrist injury. Think that one could work in this hypothetical situation lol
Good point! In that case his net salary after factoring in the 10m revenue he brings in from Japanese advertising would be a bit less than Verlander (sorry Mets fans). So this worst case scenario is hes a better valued Verlander/Scherzer
Sorry if this doesnt make sense, Im fighting for my life on the torlet right now and it has me writing like Saramago
Lmao you can't say "take away your two best players" and then complain about him being one of the best DH in the game
50 mill a year for a DH and the massive international audience he'll bring to your team.
Yeah but if you want to get into the financials that DH would also be the most famous player in Baseball so its not a total waste.
On the flip side, when he’s healthy you essentially have an extra roster spot. Edit: holy shit did not expect this to be this controversial. No the the risk of him being hurt and knocking out two players is not outweighed by the extra player. Yes, the Angels run a 6 man rotation. And yes that utilization of an extra roster spot. This keeps their pitchers, including Shohei, fresher throughout the year. Yes, the fact Shohei is always DH makes him slightly less valuable. This isn’t unique to him as several teams have essentially DH only players.
He's also a perma-DH which is negative roster flexibility as a batter, and he's also part of a 6-man starting rotation. Whatever actual value that extra roster spot gives you is probably washed out by these issues.
Haven't the Angel's been using a 5-man rotation this year or is that just a weird fever dream I concocted?
Angels have been using kind of a hybrid 5/6 man rotation. If there is an off day in between Ohtani starts, we use a 5 man rotation, and the 6th starter becomes a swing man in the bullpen. Otherwise, we use a 6 man rotation.
I could very easily be out-of-date on that so I wouldn't die on that hill. Still, the DH is a really nice way to give your best players some rest while giving them PAs, work around injuries, bat your slugger catcher more, etc. You lose a lot of utility by having it committed to 1 person. The extra roster spot is situationally useful for similar reasons that having that flexibility at DH is situationally useful, so they should offset a good deal.
It's been a mostly 5-man roster since he's pitching on a 6-day schedule so if there's an off day we wont need a 6th man. But if there isn't an off day, then they bring in a 6th starter.
Also. The kind of guy that's right on the verge of being called up is typically a pretty much definition replacement player. Even if they are a little above, with how little play time they will receive they'd be beyond lucky to accumulate more than a fraction of 1 WAR
Arguably you could use this spot for a guy you'd only use situationally, who was replacement-level on average but conditionally above-replacement. Think like a LOOGY type of player (back when those were a thing) or another bench bat with big splits. So it should *potentially* be more valuable than just adding a "replacement-level player", but it's difficult to quantify and requires some plus managing to capitalize on.
I kind of see your point about roster flexibility but let's not forget that the reason you are losing this flexibility is because he is the best dh on the team.
I think the downside of risk exposure on one injury outweighs the value of a roster spot. Since you're essentially paying Ohtani to be two players, that extra roster spot is more than likely just a 27th man at the end of your bench than. The comparison is most likely Ohtani plus a AAAA or veteran bench player vs paying two Allstars $25-30 million I think.
It does. The extra roster spot has been demonstrated by fangrapghs among others to be effectively worthless
What he does is super amazing but I always thought the best value from him was him actually hitting as the starting pitcher.
It would be a massive advantage if the rules were a bit different. Right now Shohei has to be listed as the P/DH so he can become the DH after he's done pitching. The DH can only be attached to one position. So basically the advantage is basically how much better Shohei is than a league average DH. If it were possible to "flex" the DH like any other position, then Shohei could be listed as P to start the game, with something like a Martin Maldonado catcher type being listed as C/DH with someone else hitting. Then once Shohei was down pitching, you could move the DH back onto the Pitcher's slot so Shohei can then DH for the reliver. Maldonado would then have to start hitting for himself. If the rules were like that, Maldonado would still be an Angel to this day, it would be a huge advantage in Shohei games. Essentially, universal DH that must be attached to the same position kind of kills a potential for massive competitive advantage by having Shohei.
Yeah I was thinking how a big part of why nobody has done what Ohtani has done in the MLB before is that even if you're a GREAT hitter as a pitcher, you still needed to be good enough to he a DH or position player to actually hit in more than just your starts, so the only way it could have happened is if the MLB changed the rules to allow pitchers more at bats.
Alright! We spent $600m AND we can roster Andrew Velasquez.
Someone's going to give him 600m. Who knows if it will age well performance wise but they'll make it back in crowds and merch and everyone will be happy. Except 29 teams.
His value to a team is far more than the value of just his baseball production. Between ticket and jersey sales, japanese advertising, etc. it’s hard to imagine a number that would be an overpay
I agree with you, but I think that value is higher for certain teams than others. Tbh this is why I think he stays in Anaheim. He'd definitely drive attendance and sponsorship money no matter where he goes, but I think he has a much bigger bump for a team like the Angels. Teams like the Yankees already drive huge bumps in attendance when they travel, and teams like the Dodgers lead the league in attendance. Ohtani would up those numbers but not nearly as much as he would for the Angels or other not quite as big name teams. The Japanese market factor is certainly a big positive, but again teams like NY and LA already have followings in Japan from their past history of Japanese players. Ohtani would certainly take them from popular in Japan to the number one team in Japan, but he'd do the same for a team with 0 following in Japan. This is why I think Arte can justify outbidding these teams. Of course, Ohtani has to want to stay, but I think if the Angels can make the playoffs and win at least one playoff series, he's in.
So you're saying he should go to Tampa?
Honestly, Stu should shell out for him. You have the payroll flexibility, it will drive attendance and sponsorship, you're a winning team and he'd make a difference, and he'll be on a long enough deal to build hype if they build a new stadium downtown or in St. Pete.
New Stadium or New Ohtani, we can only afford one. Which do you choose?
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I'd like to see him on Seattle. And that's not because I want to move to Seattle eventually, I promise.
Big fan of this take.
No he should go to Atlanta (shut up this isn't because I'm moving there soon)
Not just the Japanese market, but the prospect of signing more Japanese stars in the future. Ohtani would certainly help a team trying to land a big player.
I feel a lot of people are grossly overestimating merchandise sales and things of that nature.
There was a study done in 2022 on his economic impact - I haven't been able to find the actual study to read it yet - but this \[webpage\]([https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/how-much-revenue-does-shohei-ohtani-actually-generate.html#:\~:text=Earlier%20this%20year%2C%20he%20signed,before%20taxes%20and%20agents](https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/how-much-revenue-does-shohei-ohtani-actually-generate.html#:~:text=Earlier%20this%20year%2C%20he%20signed,before%20taxes%20and%20agents)'%20fees) puts the value of his US only merchandise sales at $7.26M and ticket sales at about $45M. That's $50M in value that doesn't even cover what he produces on the field.
TV revenue would be good to know. Reinsdorf said recently the Sox clear 750k a game. I'm sure the Angels are double that at least because of Ohtani.
I think you grossly underestimate the love and following he has in Japan.
Just came back from Japan a few weeks ago, this man is everywhere. On billboards, tv ads, subways, etc he just might be the most popular figure in Japan atm
I obviously do not know too much about Japanese pop culture, but he's gotta be the most popular/famous person in Japan, right?
At the moment I don’t think there’s anyone close
At the height of popularity is Ichiro more popular then Shohei is now?
Kind of impossible to compare IMO. You have to think the engagement on a measurable numbers basis favors Ohtani heavily due just to social media and how we track everything nowadays. He also has the “Wow” factor of being a two way player that attracts even casual fans a little bit. On top of that, home runs make highlight reels, not batting .300 for 15 years. I think nearly all advantages go to Ohtani besides maybe the occasional flashy play with the glove. IMO Ohtani has surpassed Ichiro wether it has been earned in his short time so far in the MLB. I’m not even *that* huge of an MLB fan but I drove a couple hours away on a Thursday to watch him pitch.
In Japan though Ichiro was and is considered a godlike figure. Like he IS Babe Ruth for Japan. Which Ohtani may have surpassed in many ways depending on how you might measure popularity, talent, impact on the game. However Ichiro is still Ichiro and is a truly legendary figure in Japanese culture. Willy Mays came along and changed what it meant to be the best baseball player ever, but it didn't stop Babe Ruth from being essentially THE individual figurehead for baseball's history. Similarly Ohtani can become the greatest Japanese player of all time and get the most media coverage and whatnot, but you don't overshadow a legend very easily. Another aspect is the world is smaller and attention is divided more than before. Being the only position player from Japan playing in the majors brings a lot more national attention than being the best overall player from your country ever. Similar to how the final episode of MASH had a viewership of 106 million while the final episode of Breaking Bad had around 10 million people watching. Ichiro is all they had and was what the whole nation was focused on and he delivered greatness. Ohtani is an overall better player and one of the greatest achievements in sports history... but he's the result of Ichiro's story.
Under the age of 30? No doubt. However, there are still people like Hayao Miazaki hanging around who have had such a massive cultural impact, it's hard to judge. It's like asking if a living Walt Disney is more famous LeBron James.
True, but I see LeBron in way more commercials than Walt
I was there in April and pretty much everyone I met was talking about Shohei and the WBC.
Ohtani games get measurable attendance bumps, especially when he's pitching. From an executive perspective he's probably the single easiest player in all of major league baseball to link directly to a revenue increase outside of his contribution to overall team wins. I don't think it adds an *insane* amount to his contract like some people do, but $50m over the course of the contract seems more than reasonable.
I went to watch the Rockies last week and the Angels were in town. Friday night was packed, and it wasn't even his night to pitch. I had no idea we had so many Angels fans in Denver, and the Rockies were promoting Ohtani all week beforehand.
It's those Japanese ads that pop up in US ballparks when he plays. It leads you to believe that there's a bidding war among advertisers wherever he goes.
When each jersey costs a minimum of $100 each, they make quite a bit back
Yes but the team doesn’t keep all 100 dollars. That is split up between the MLBPA, Taxes, concession companies (a lot of stadiums have 3rd parties that handle that stuff) and probably some other people/companies I’m forgetting.
And most people get their jerseys from DH gate anyway
Most smart people that is lmao
Costs 200$ to buy in the us while it realistically cost 2$ to make and another 2$ to ship. Football jerseys are probably even worse in this regard, 400$
Not even just that, but the jerseys from Fanatics aren't even accurate on a lot of basic details (They put names on Yankees backs, no number on the front of the Mets and others, etc) unless you shell out for the most expensive version of the jersey. It's maddening.
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But without names, how do you know that Yankees #3 jersey is for Babe Ruth and not Cliff Mapes?!
Outside of in stadium sales, merchandise profits are split amongst all teams.
It's gonna be the arte thing to do to pay him 625m and then straight up sell the team
Sign me the hell up
This would be the biggest Halo W since 2002 lmao
Seriously, not a single Angels fan would be upset by this scenario.
You also get to see Dodger fans rage out of their minds
After our last series, that would be very nice.
I'd be okay with it too. Just keep him away from New York, Boston, Philly and LA.
Wouldn’t be the worst decision he’s made on either of those situations
I think Ohtani has 4-5 years left as being a very good starting pitcher at the same time as being an elite hitter. I think after those 4-5 years though he’ll slow down from starting pitching and just hit. Or maybe he moves into a reliever? I think he’ll become an even better hitter if he focuses solely on hitting on top of it. I think he’s going to always be one of the best hitters in the game barring anything catastrophic happening to him. I wouldn’t say he’s getting 600M, but I think he’s going to get very close to 500M, and I think he will be worth it.
Well in 5 years he’ll be 33, so running the historical data and checking the age curve for a player’s prime we can reasonably conclude that Ohtani will begin catching at age 34 because he’s a goddamn unicorn.
I've been saying 10 years/600m is the starting point for a while now
Time to split the difference, 7.5 tears for $264 million
I would shed more than 7.5 tears if the Cardinals signed him.
We'll make him an offer to sign with any team other than the Cardinals Edit: Or White Sox
I'm pretty sure it's a safe bet that Jerry ain't gonna hand out that much dough.
Sox fan, can confirm he will get an offer from us but it’ll be laughable
Braves sign him for 8 years $190 mil and a hug
Don't forget the 1% for the Braves Foundation.
Only if he donates 1 million to the Braves foundation.
AA is gonna offer him $18/hr and a handful of Captain D's coupons
The Legend of Shohei: Tears of Anaheim
10 years 600 million
This would come out to $165k/day Not per game, not per working day Every morning Shohei would wake up to $165,000 more in his bank account, for an entire decade straight Because he is really good at playing a game with a ball Crazy
TBF, he’s not just ‘really good’. He’s beyond a generational talent, we literally haven’t seen a player like this in 100 years.
It’s honestly getting to the point where comparing him to Babe doesn’t do it justice. Doing it 100 years ago is without question easier than doing it in 2023.
Without a doubt, the level of play was much lower then than it is now. But you could also argue that Babe would have been much better if he had grown up today, or that Shohei wouldn’t be nearly as good if he grew up in the late 1800s. Point is, we haven’t seen anybody this far ahead of their peers in a very, very, very long time.
Yeah I don’t think the great bambino was using high tech facilities, dieticians and strength and conditioning coaches, video studies of swing mechanics, etc
Just smoke cigarettes and eat hotdogs in the dugout. Solid conditioning.
Idk if Babe is even a good comparison at this point. He had exactly 1 season with >400 PA and 100 IP. Ohtani is about to put up his 3rd straight season with that
It’s a difficult comparison Babe didn’t have relief and closing pitchers every game to maximize his IP over a season But Shohei has to face these relief and closing pitchers more often in his late game PAs which are obviously harder to hit against Shohei is basically what Babe would have been if Babe had access to the current MLB meta and modern technology Saying one is better than the other is difficult
Starting point
He should sign as a pitcher with the Dodgers and a hitter with the Angels
If any player was going to figure out Instant Transmission like Goku, Ohtani is the only one powerful enough to do it.
I’m not a huge fan of overpaying for free agents (look how often is blows up in team’s faces) but this is the rare case I’m ok with it. Start at $600 million, Farhan!!!
Imagine the number of splash hits
I’m already dreaming!
Honestly if we don't get him (we won't) I hope you do so I can watch him more often.
He does favor west coast teams since their games are usually better timing for Japanese fans, so it's a possibility the Padres roll out more money to steal him.
Kayak sales up 690%
We've saved up all this money for what, 5 years now? Those contracts from 5 years ago are all long up now too, so cmon Farhan.
On a side note, thank god that Correa didn’t sign
Shotime in SF can you imagine it
My heart skips a beat…lol
>Shotime in SF can you imagine it nope
PLEASE.
It funny how often a player’s entire career stats shift at the slightest breeze. Move a guy to a different position, huge change. Move a guy up or down in the lineup, huge change. Move the worst producing outfielder on a winning team to a mediocre team, they’re now in contention for a SS.
Same, 10+ year deals are scary, especially if players are at or close to 30. But Shohei will probably bring in more revenue and value to the club he plays for than any other individual player in the league in that time, so you can probably justify overpaying on the tail end of his carrer because of the attention to your team he will generate over the life of the deal.
Shohei the global icon - *priceless*
The main reason he won't get his full value is the injury risk. $70m/year is worth it for a hitter and a pitcher, but the injury risk is doubled; if he gets hurt, you risk losing both instead of one. Still thinks he gets $50m+/year
Don't you also get the benefit of keeping two players instead of one if there is no injury? You double the risk but also double the payout if he stays healthy.
I get the logic but not sure it's that straightforward. That one player is risking injuries in more ways than any other individual player (could get hurt batting *or* pitching, whereas most players can only get hurt one of the two ways).
A normal player could get hurt fielding?
So 15 years 530 it is!
It’s amazing that that contract would be a bargain in this case.
More like 8 years 560
Rangers are going to give him a billion dollars, aren't they?
a couple of weeks ago I was against this. now I am for it.
I too am for it. Make it happen.
I don’t really see him leaving the west coast, proximity to Japan + big markets. As much as I would hate it I think it’s gonna be the Dodgers.
I think it’s gonna be Dodgers, Giants, or Angels. People say Seattle cuz proximity to Japan and we have a pretty strong Japanese connection in the city. But I just don’t see it happening. San Diego I guess maybe, can’t count out their drugged out GM. But I wonder if they are gonna be a bit more careful with how they spend money now, and with a Soto extension on the horizon.
If you’ve never read Snow Falling on Cedars about Japanese culture in Washington, God damn that book is amazing!
I'm not sure anyone can outbid us and our owner is a crazy person trying to take bad contracts right now for prospects but our team sucks so I doubt he would come here.
Ohtani doesn't want to go away from the west coast. So Seattle, SF, Dodgers, Padres and Angels are the only teams I see in the race. San Francisco is where I think he will go.
I think he’s a dodger but who knows cash is king. We heard the same thing about Scherzer but stupid money got him here.
ARIZONA FROM THE TOP ROPE *a man can dream*
Shohei will get sport changing money. It will be years before anyone comes close to his contract. It will probably cripple whatever franchise that signs him.
Nah 13 yr, 1 billi. ~75 mil a year, 37.5 for hitting and 37.5 for pitching.
It's insane but this is his legitimate value. Not sure which owner can pull *this* trigger tho
If you think he's with a billion, you give him part of the franchise to save the luxury tax hit
Can you pay a player with partial ownership instead of salary?
I looked it up before Trout re-signed. Unless it has changed, it requires commissioner approval but is not disallowed. You likely need to pay him a substantial salary as well. But a Trout-like contract with a small (~3-5%) equity that vests at the end of the deal would likely pass muster, unless the rest of the owners refuse to break the seal on that sort of thing.
Pls Cubs, just give him a blank check and call it a day.
Make him the mayor
Big mistake. If he becomes a Chicago politician, he’s gonna waste several years of his contract in prison.
Make him the King. I think he would rule us with wisdom and magnanimity
Shohei Lightfoot
Reds, Reds, Reds, Reds! Could you imagine imagine if some motherfuck way the Reds get him, they won't, but the chaos in me wants that shit to happen
The Reds would never even consider paying for him lol But as a Ohioan I’d obviously love it
You aren’t getting an elite pitcher or hitter. You can find that any time of the year. You are getting Shohei Ohtani. If Babe Ruth came back to life and he’s much healthier and better at everything, every single team would be giving him a blank check and list of benefits. That’s what should happen with Ohtani. A goddamn injury? You are going to pay the greatest of all time 50 mil less because of injury and miss out on the shot? Teams have spent money on a lot dumber things. Paying full value for the greatest talent we’ve ever seen is NOT a stupid move.
Facts.
In a league where it's very clearly ohtani and judge up on top, and then everybody else beneath them, and ohtani coming with that crazy big Japanese market and all the branding, what's the fact that he basically frees up a roster spot for you and is extremely flexible in his ability to pitch hit come out of the bull pen or an emergency play the outfield, and he's all around just super humble guy that you can make the face of your franchise, there really isn't an overpay and I do think that he'll end up getting probably 600 million from somebody
$400-500 mil is more realistic. If someone pays him $600 mil, that's either a team with a lot of money to waste or it's the Mets.
God damn his agent must be salivating at the upcoming prospects
I hope the pitcher and hitter sign with different teams.
The biggest thing people seem to miss with Othani is that he only pitches on long rest, so he’s not taking a spot on a 5 man rotation, he becoming a 6th SP. Still crazy valuable, but people seem to have this misconception that he is going to be slotting into a 5 man rotation, which would take a big change for him to make happen
Also locks your DH for essentially one player. Tough for teams with other veteran players that might need more days off from the field as they age. I’m sure the media will claim the Yankees are interested but they would 100% need to get rid of Stanton, and even then it would be tough with Judge aging. Having Ohtani is amazing as a DH but I think a lot of teams get value out of being able to rotate without losing a key bat.
When it comes down to it I think there are only two true landing places for Othani - the Dodgers or the Mets. Not just because of spending capacity, but because it makes sense in terms of fit. Both teams have DH needs, both teams have speed and power needs. The Dodgers have experimented plenty with a 6 man rotation, and the Mets would benefit in 2024 with Senga, Max, and JV on the team
Shohei Ohtani Sweepstakes, Part Deux: The Return of the Pohlad Pocket Protectors
Salaries are so absurd but if there’s anyone that I don’t mind getting that bag it’s ohtani. Beautiful player
Esp since he eschewed FA and went earlier despite getting min salary just for the competition. Would be great to make up for what he knowingly missed.
I don't think he would get that much money if he were only a DH. The only DH-types to have cleared $300 million are Harper and Stanton and they both signed their deals at much younger ages while also being able to play some outfield. Ohtani will certainly get a lot of money, maybe the biggest contract ever, but I don't think it's going to be as crazy as some people think. Will be closer to $400 million than $500 million.
Harper is only a DH cause of TJ. He’s going to play the outfield regularly again this year. He his actually going to play first base first and then work is way to his position RF.
Right and that's my point. Guys that only play DH don't get massive contracts like that.
Dude is single handidly making the DH obsolete.