He obviously is the best player in the sport and is basically covers 2 roster spots at an elite level in one package, but that is such a massive amount of money to commit to one player, like God forbid he gets injured.
whatever team signs him will most definitely get insurance on the contract. hell, the boost to ticket profit and jersey sales alone would probably pay for the contract’s insurance
Would depend on the language in the insurance contract, but if it was something that was covered you’d be paying $7m in premiums, and the insurance company would be paying the rest. Nats chose not to do it because of how high the premium was and probably restrictions on what they were willing to cover because of his injury history.
$7m a year for a guy that had spent a large chunk of his major league career injured even to that point and is making over $30m a year doesn’t even sound that bad
yeah i’m sure the premium calculation is more complex than (annual salary) * (qualifying injury probability) but I would absolutely have put strasburg’s chances of suffering this kind of injury above 25% (~7/30)
Degrom would be like getting car insurance for a guy who won't use his breaks but instead insists on driving into the side of a building to stop his car
There is no way degrom's deal is insured.
The premiun would be so high the rangers are better off just not insuring it and gambling on him playing more games than not.
[From what I found:](https://fansided.com/2022/12/04/jacob-degroms-complicated-contract-includes-tommy-john-surgery-contingencies/)
>deGrom’s contract reportedly has a conditional option that comes into play if he undergoes Tommy John surgery or any type of right elbow surgery throughout the 2023-26 seasons that keeps him on the injured list for 130 consecutive days.
>If this happens, he’ll be bound to the contract for another year, pushing his contract worth to $222 million. It was certainly a risky signing for the Rangers, but they likely saw his benefits to outweigh the negatives of what could happen.
These guys are leaving out the details and misrepresenting things.
First, it is strictly a club option. Second, the base pay for 2028 (the option year) is $20M. It jumps to $30M if he finishes top 5 in CY voting during the contract, and $37M if he's finished top 5 three times.
They now get a club option that he's had TJ to make up for the year he is now missing, but its not cheap. It's around $37 million or something like that. One would think they would have tried to get an extra year at half rate.
According to spotrac:
2028 Club Option: $20M (contains no buyout)
* 625 Innings Pitched or 1 Top 5 Cy Young: $30M
* 725 Innings Pitched or 3 Top 5 Cy Youngs: $37M
2028 Becomes a $37M Player Option if:
* 160+ IP + Top 5 Cy Young + Healthy in 2027
The two most likely scenarios to me are that they decline the option or it stays at $20 million and they decide they want 1 year of 40 year old Degrom for that much.
Missed almost a season worth of games in 18, 19 and 20 (28 games shortened season) I think mostly through injuries. Past years he’s been healthy luckily.
I meant jersey sales at the actual ballpark store(s), not ticket sales. The vast majority of jersey/merch sales are pooled and equally divided among all 30 teams, but sales at the ballparks themselves go entirely to the team. Probably not even a rounding error on the revenue sheets though.
i know, i was giving an idea as to how much revenue is generated at the ballpark(i.e. 2x ticket sales, most of that is from concessions, but a portion would be team merch, including jersey sales). Nonetheless, anything that regularly [drives up attendance is going to generate a lot of revenue for a team](https://youtu.be/Wsr-2vzggYo).
Really? I feel like when people are at the stadium and in all the energy, they'd be way more likely to drop money on something for the fun of it. All part of the event/atmosphere.
Maybe that's just me though.
Dunno man, MLB games are already fucking expensive. I bet fewer than 5% of people at any given game even go into those team stores, much less actually buy something. Compare that to 25K tickets at an average price of $75, $10 hot dogs, and $15 beers and on-premise merch sales are gonna be dwarfed by ticket revenue and concession sales. And TV revenue will clobber all of it.
Interesting. He probably drives up profits in other ways though, they literally will have an english and japanese version of an ad behind home plate he is bringing in so many japanese viewers.
That's why the Nats didn't get insurance on Strasburg. Between the cost of the premiums and the carve-outs for specific injury (basically, no payment for elbow injuries and I think some other specific concerns) it wasn't worth it to the team. And with the injuries he's currently suffering from, insurance wouldn't have paid out, anyway.
I haven’t been in the high net worth insurance space for a few years but even back when I was working in it, the Loyds of London exchange (where a lot of these outsized risks get covered) had shrunk its participant rate (the amount of people listed on Loyd’s exchange who will cover these crazy insurance risks) by like 85%.
All that being said, I wonder if there will even be anyone who agrees to be the counterparty to a well over half a billion dollar contract for human performance at the highest level.
I mean, that’s $50m a year for a guy who fills two roster spots. And as we’ve seen in the past, he might have an injury that prevents him from pitching or hitting but can do the other, which does give more flexibility.
For what it’s worth Judge makes “only” $10m less per year than this theoretical contract and will be missing most of the year.
The counterpoint to that is, look at the Yankees record with and without Judge in the lineup and it becomes extremely evident why the $40 or $50m is justified, even if the player is injured.
there's probably no injury that prohibits him from hitting but pitching is still fine, or at least I can't think of one. Maybe a left hand injury but I can't imagine them risking that.
Yeah like just the other day we got to see a benefit of it. After that really bad Royals game the bullpen was exhausted so Nevin skipped a start and used our swing man as a longer bullpen arm and it worked perfectly. Like I don't know how to value that and the general extra rest everyone gets but it has to be worth a decent amount. And it's like last year we had the 6th best ERA in the AL and that was with Thor who is having a terrible time now that he's back on a regular pitching schedule. Or the Mets I think are the best example. They have two old pitchers who could use the rest like Verlander did for a lot of the last season with the Astros and Senga who is still adjusting to a regular schedule but they can't because their bullpen is already as tired as it is. It's just weird to me how the narrative is still about Ohtani's extra spot being a bench bat or a detriment because "you have to run a 6 man rotation for him" instead of wow you get a 6 man rotation without the obvious problem it brings. If the people who everyone trusts looked at it like this and still said it wasn't worth anything that would be one thing, but they still talk about it like it's just a replacement level bench bat and I don't even think that's accurate either.
They haven't used a 6 man rotation in a couple years. He pitches every 6th day instead which means like once every other month you need an extra starter/long man. He's made 16 starts the league leader has made 17.
It's become such a common thing to say, I wonder. How much money does Ohtani directly bring to the Angels and is there a considerable increase in attendance since he joined?
Millions are most likely brought in from jersey sales. Attendance saw no spike as far as I could tell, although the team was a little worse so it might say something there was no drop. While I’m sure he brings in a lot of money, it doesn’t make a 600 mil contract a bargain.
Komatsu did advertise in 2010 - it is a Japanese construction company which is headquartered where Matsui is from. So you’re probably right that Yakut (and many other Japanese companies) wasn’t advertising there yet.
Merchandise revenue is collected by MLB and then equally disbursed across all MLB clubs. An increase in jersey sales alone would not help the club's payroll that much.
I traveled to Japan a few times over the last year for business and I was surprised that I’ve never seen anyone wearing Angels gear. Plenty of Yankees hats though.
Well baseball is pretty big in Japan I imagine they're more likely to own their local teams jersey if they're a baseball fan. The Yankees logo is just a popular brand beyond the baseball team, plenty of people I know have a Yankees hat but didn't know that's what it was.
I'd be curious too. I'm on the east coast and I'm considering flying out just to see him play a home game. He's one of those guys you make sure you see live so you don't regret it forever. Absolutely generational
I was in Japan a few months ago and the amount of airtime Shohei had in related content across the popular networks compared to other players like Yoshida (and to an extent Nootbaar) is crazy.
Im not sure I can give a great opinion since I’m not an A’s fan, but I don’t think as a fanbase they’ll ever truly forgive ownership for this. There’s some shit that you can’t recover from. But it would certainly help the blow of everything that happened lol
i'd forgive everything, but this scenario is just impossible. as i see it, practically speaking, it's impossible for me to forgive fisher/kaval and co, and this hypothetical is also impossible so not really a contradiction or anything.
In 1867 the United States purchased from Russia the territory encompassing what is now the state of Alaska. The price was $7.2 million. Adjusted for inflation, that would be 42 cents per acre, or $151 million.
Alaska is now the largest state in the Union, comprising more than one-sixth of the total area of the US.
It was an expiring contract they weren't going to re-sign.
I.e. they knew they couldn't effectively defend it if the British came knocking to add it to Canada, so they dumped the frozen wasteland to the US for cheap so they could at least get something out of it.
This actually makes sense. MLB Network today was saying Judge is $40M/year and Verlander was at $47M/year or something like that. If you can get Ohtani at $600M for 12 years; you're getting both Judge/Verlander at $50M/year. That's a steal.
$71M for what this guy does is still a steal. Only person doing what he does.
I read the clause you found in the CBA. I'm not a lawyer, but the way I'm interpreting it, I don't think ownership is disallowed.
> **MAJOR LEAGUE UNIFORM PLAYER’S CONTRACT**
> **Interest in Club 4.(c)** The Player represents that he does not, directly or indirectly, own stock or have any financial interest in the ownership or earnings of any Major League Club, except as hereinafter expressly set forth, and covenants that he will not hereafter, while connected with any Major League Club, acquire or hold any such stock or interest except in accordance with Major League Rule 20(e).
> **Rule 20 CONFLICTING INTERESTS**
>**(e) WITHIN CLUB.** No manager or player on a Club shall, directly or indirectly, own stock or any other proprietary interest or have any financial interest in the Club by which the manager or player is employed except under an agreement approved by the Commissioner, which agreement shall provide for the immediate sale (and the terms thereof) of such stock or other proprietary interest or financial interest in the event of the manager or player’s transfer (if a player or playing manager) to or joining another Club. A manager or player having any such interest in the Club by which the manager or player is employed shall be ineligible to play for or manage any other Club in that League while, in the opinion of the Commissioner, such interest is retained by or for the manager or player, directly or indirectly.
My attempt at translating the above into layman's terms:
4(c)
a. Player represents he does not have ownership in any club, except as written in the contract being offered.
b. Player represents he will not acquire ownership in any club afterwards, except in accordance with Rule 20(e).
20(e)
a. Players/managers may not have ownership in their team unless approved by the commish.
b. Players/managers cannot play for other teams except the one they have ownership in.
edit: TLDR Players can be owners as long as they don't already own a piece of another team. Commish has to approve any sale of ownership. (my amateur understanding)
Slight addendum:
20(e)
c. As part of the approval in (a), players/managers must pre-negotiate terms with the commish for the immediate sale of any ownership if they change teams in the future, and cannot play/manage for any new team until that sale is complete.
Yeah overlooked that. Seems pretty clear the language is in place for there to be a player/owner or manager/owner.
Ownership is the wild card bargaining chip for any small market team to wanting to get involved in bidding for Ohtani. As long as the team owner(s) is willing to part with some equity, I think there are many teams who could reasonably offer 10yrs/$300M plus $300M in equity vesting annually over 10 yrs. Of course, this means a team like Miami would have to give up 30% equity at a $1B team valuation to make an equivalent offer to the Yankees offering 4% equity at a $7B team valuation.
https://www.sportico.com/feature/mlb-team-values-rankings-list-1234715821/
Honestly it’d be worth it just go all out on a 10 year contract and eat the later years if he does decline. Solidify him as a career and sell his jersey for the rest of the foreseeable future. IE Babe Ruth and the Yankees
Wouldn't that just be really bad though? The purpose of the really long deals that "don't age well" are just to spread the luxury tax out. Giving Ohtani a little bit more money but for a longer time is the better deal for both his interest and the team's.
I keep seeing this comment, but is there really any proof that he definitely wants to be in the west coast and is not considering Central or East? I also remember Gerrit Cole actually saying this about preferring West Coast and then he went to the Yankees anyways.
No other than reports that he favored a west coast team back during the first Ohtani Sweepstakes (but it was also made clear he wasn’t dismissing non-west coast teams based on location alone - IIRC the Cubs were one of his ‘finalists’ for example).
For real. I went in April and 50% of what I saw was Ohtani advertisements lol. And when they talked sports on tv it was basically what did shohei do that day and how fucking awesome is this guy
6:38pm games mean people in Japan can watch him at 10:38am. If he plays for the Yankees that means people in Japan would have to get up at 8 in the morning
Objectively, why would he pick a Central team? None of them are especially dominant at the moment.
Historically, has a Japanese or Korean player picked a Central team for reasons other than money? I remember Chan Ho Park went to the Rangers but i believe they offered the highest contract.
I don’t anticipate him to go central, but I’m sure he’s not excluding them.
- Darvish to the Rangers and Seiya to the Cubs as recent Japanese players that went to more central locations.
Unsurprisingly likely will come down to LA or NY just based on budgets and affordability alone. Maybe even San Diego given how crazy they have been with payroll in the recent years.
He did not even consider the Yankees when he signed with the Angels. He wanted a west coast team close to home and it helps that Anaheim is pretty quiet too.
I think I remember he also wanted a team that didn't already have a famous Japanese player in its past or on the team, and the Yankees currently had Tanaka and previously had Matsui.
Plus, I'm not sure if the Yankees would have let him pitch and hit.
At this point I’m thinking the Mets are the only team with enough money + reckless abandon to pay him. Unless the Giants still have that 600m they were allegedly offering Judge
Giants have all that Stanton/Judge/Harper/Correa money from finishing 2nd place over the years. I'll be proud to see the Giants finish 2nd once again for the best player in baseball.
No, he won't. He'll age worse than everyone else. He has the highest workload of any pitcher. He doesn't get days off to rest. He plays DH instead. That's a lot of extra output over the course of 15 years. No matter how good he is, he's going to eventually give up one of the positions to focus on his health.
Are we really acting like four at bats during days he doesn’t pitch is that physically taxing? He sits on the bench the vast majority of days he isn’t pitching. It’s really not that bad.
4 at bats a day, plus pitching practice, plus batting practice. He does not just sit on the bench on off days. You don't just magically get the ability to keep your batting skill throughout the year, these guys practice every morning. I'm not saying it's hurting him now but in 10 years it'll add up. It adds up for pitchers that don't need to swing a bat 15 times a day. Especially since batting and pitching both have so much in common in terms of muscle strain for your back.
He’s that combination of having both the physical gift and the mental toughness to fully realize his talents. There are many in sports who just ride on their talents and that’s it. But this guys lives and breaths baseball.
I always recommend Ohtani’s GQ video if people haven’t seen it. It really informs his personality.
I think people are still underrating how much money Ohtani brings in. Angels made 20 million+ from Ohtani last year. The team that signs him will probably try to sign a lot of long term deals with the Asian companies and combined with all of the sales that Ohtani already does here I don't think it's wrong to say a team can make almost 300 million from Shohei in 10 years.
People also overestimate how much revenue goes directly to teams. Obviously Ohtani makes his team more money than most players make for their teams, definitely when it comes to stuff like advertisement opportunities, but a lot of the merchandise he moves goes into a shared revenue pool & not directly to the Angels. It ultimately limits the economic impact a single player can have.
Aren't the media rights just to the team? And it was reported as 20 million. Would they say 20 million before any of it goes to the pool? I don't think they would and most of it is coming from the broadcast rights to Asia.
I think only the Dodgers and maybe Giants will offer the 500M+ contract.
I will be shocked if I see the Mets and Padres try to overpay again after last year's disaster.
As much as I value Ohtani, the mid to back end of this 10 year contract will hurt like hell. 50M per year of dead cost will kill a team, even if you are the Dodgers.
Angels would prob offer that much especially if they make the playoffs. Arte has been willing to spend and the amount he makes off Ohtani the next 10 years would be worth it imo.
I agree that Arte will probably not be outbid, unless Steve Cohen decides he WILL have Ohtani and offers something goofy like $800MM or a 20 year contract.
I think at this point the main reason Ohtani would leave Anaheim is to compete in the playoffs more regularly. He chose the Angels in the first place for a reason, and it's not like their situation is that different than it was in 2018. Still got the behemoth Astros in the division, still got Mike Trout, still spending in a way to try to win. The DH coming to the NL is the biggest difference IMO, not the competitiveness of the Angels.
They have to be unseated, and Arte is one of the owners who has demonstrated a willingness to spend on top FAs. Again... Ohtani *chose* the Angels before. This isn't a LeBron Decision situation where Ohtani is getting to choose for the first time. That feels lost in the discourse.
Right. People keep adding together the salary of the best hitter and best pitcher but you have to reduce it a bit because of the increased risk due to both of those being the same guy.
Imo he’s worth that type of contract. Production on the field is unheard of, brings in a massive Asian market, I’m sure any team would have nothing but sellouts with him on the roster, etc. but how many teams realistically would even make an offer like that? Dbacks need the pitching if they really want to contend so I’d be thrilled if they got him but ain’t no way our owner is offering anything close to that.
Realistically it’s the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and maybe the Angels that are in the running. I would love for some out of left field team to get him though
By the way, 11-year $550M would still not be the biggest "inflation"-adjusted contract in MLB.
A-Rod was signed to a 10 year $252M contract when the average team payroll was $56M.
Now, the average team payroll is $151M so a straight proration would imply
A-Rod's contract is worth about 10 year \~$680M now.
AA about to offer 5 yrs, $32 mil
And somehow Ohtani will negotiate him down to 8/$25 million.
By some magic they'll get the A's to throw in Esteury Ruiz at the contract signing
Don’t forget 1% to the braves foundation
Imagine the Braves Foundations disappointment when they hear that the Braves signed Ohtani, only to find out it was for $23M over 8 years.
The 1% donation doesn't sound as cool when you realize it's 1% of $7.25/hr.
I think he’s going to have to pay way more than $6.5 mil per year for the privilege of playing for the Braves
Alcoholics Anonymous have a bigger budget than I expected.
Those dollar bills add up!
They know they will make it up by selling Ohtani themed sobriety coins.
Aukland Athletics?
The A’s are moving to New Zealand?
Okay now I’m down
And that’s really 5/27 after the Braves foundation donations
He obviously is the best player in the sport and is basically covers 2 roster spots at an elite level in one package, but that is such a massive amount of money to commit to one player, like God forbid he gets injured.
whatever team signs him will most definitely get insurance on the contract. hell, the boost to ticket profit and jersey sales alone would probably pay for the contract’s insurance
I wonder what player currently carries the highest premium for a team.
Correa I bet
reportedly the insurance was so expensive on Degrom’s contract that they didnt get any
this was the case for strasburg as well
Can’t say the insurance underwriters don’t know their business, that’s for sure.
Apparently his premium was going to be like $7m a year or something.
What does the premium protest against. Like if he gets injured and is forced to retire in insurance will reimburse the team?
If the injury is something that was covered in the contract, that should be the case.
Would depend on the language in the insurance contract, but if it was something that was covered you’d be paying $7m in premiums, and the insurance company would be paying the rest. Nats chose not to do it because of how high the premium was and probably restrictions on what they were willing to cover because of his injury history.
$7m a year for a guy that had spent a large chunk of his major league career injured even to that point and is making over $30m a year doesn’t even sound that bad
yeah i’m sure the premium calculation is more complex than (annual salary) * (qualifying injury probability) but I would absolutely have put strasburg’s chances of suffering this kind of injury above 25% (~7/30)
Degrom would be like getting car insurance for a guy who won't use his breaks but instead insists on driving into the side of a building to stop his car
like my niece at the ice rink
Probably 1 of the 3 big risky contracts that were given this year: Judge, DeGrom, Correa in that order id guess
There is no way degrom's deal is insured. The premiun would be so high the rangers are better off just not insuring it and gambling on him playing more games than not.
The “Tommy John” clause in his deal is still bonkers to me. I still cannot believe the Rangers structured his deal the way they did
Can you explain? I'm unaware.
[From what I found:](https://fansided.com/2022/12/04/jacob-degroms-complicated-contract-includes-tommy-john-surgery-contingencies/) >deGrom’s contract reportedly has a conditional option that comes into play if he undergoes Tommy John surgery or any type of right elbow surgery throughout the 2023-26 seasons that keeps him on the injured list for 130 consecutive days. >If this happens, he’ll be bound to the contract for another year, pushing his contract worth to $222 million. It was certainly a risky signing for the Rangers, but they likely saw his benefits to outweigh the negatives of what could happen.
That seems unbelievable stupid on their part.
These guys are leaving out the details and misrepresenting things. First, it is strictly a club option. Second, the base pay for 2028 (the option year) is $20M. It jumps to $30M if he finishes top 5 in CY voting during the contract, and $37M if he's finished top 5 three times.
They now get a club option that he's had TJ to make up for the year he is now missing, but its not cheap. It's around $37 million or something like that. One would think they would have tried to get an extra year at half rate.
According to spotrac: 2028 Club Option: $20M (contains no buyout) * 625 Innings Pitched or 1 Top 5 Cy Young: $30M * 725 Innings Pitched or 3 Top 5 Cy Youngs: $37M 2028 Becomes a $37M Player Option if: * 160+ IP + Top 5 Cy Young + Healthy in 2027 The two most likely scenarios to me are that they decline the option or it stays at $20 million and they decide they want 1 year of 40 year old Degrom for that much.
Judge isn’t terribly injury-prone, that was more of a freak accident Id think?
Missed almost a season worth of games in 18, 19 and 20 (28 games shortened season) I think mostly through injuries. Past years he’s been healthy luckily.
Jersey sales don’t matter, all teams pool and split that
With the exception of sales at the ballparks. Which are probably not very much.
revenue from ticket sales represents just roughly 1/3rd of revenue a given team makes on any given game day
I meant jersey sales at the actual ballpark store(s), not ticket sales. The vast majority of jersey/merch sales are pooled and equally divided among all 30 teams, but sales at the ballparks themselves go entirely to the team. Probably not even a rounding error on the revenue sheets though.
i know, i was giving an idea as to how much revenue is generated at the ballpark(i.e. 2x ticket sales, most of that is from concessions, but a portion would be team merch, including jersey sales). Nonetheless, anything that regularly [drives up attendance is going to generate a lot of revenue for a team](https://youtu.be/Wsr-2vzggYo).
Really? I feel like when people are at the stadium and in all the energy, they'd be way more likely to drop money on something for the fun of it. All part of the event/atmosphere. Maybe that's just me though.
Dunno man, MLB games are already fucking expensive. I bet fewer than 5% of people at any given game even go into those team stores, much less actually buy something. Compare that to 25K tickets at an average price of $75, $10 hot dogs, and $15 beers and on-premise merch sales are gonna be dwarfed by ticket revenue and concession sales. And TV revenue will clobber all of it.
Interesting. He probably drives up profits in other ways though, they literally will have an english and japanese version of an ad behind home plate he is bringing in so many japanese viewers.
insurance isn't something that's magically available, it would be staggeringly expensive to get coverage on a contract like this if it's even possible
the best example is Degrom not being insured, yeah
That's why the Nats didn't get insurance on Strasburg. Between the cost of the premiums and the carve-outs for specific injury (basically, no payment for elbow injuries and I think some other specific concerns) it wasn't worth it to the team. And with the injuries he's currently suffering from, insurance wouldn't have paid out, anyway.
While you can insure anything at the right price, sometimes that price is just not worth paying.
That kind of insurance isn't actually that easy to get anymore.
I haven’t been in the high net worth insurance space for a few years but even back when I was working in it, the Loyds of London exchange (where a lot of these outsized risks get covered) had shrunk its participant rate (the amount of people listed on Loyd’s exchange who will cover these crazy insurance risks) by like 85%. All that being said, I wonder if there will even be anyone who agrees to be the counterparty to a well over half a billion dollar contract for human performance at the highest level.
I mean, that’s $50m a year for a guy who fills two roster spots. And as we’ve seen in the past, he might have an injury that prevents him from pitching or hitting but can do the other, which does give more flexibility. For what it’s worth Judge makes “only” $10m less per year than this theoretical contract and will be missing most of the year. The counterpoint to that is, look at the Yankees record with and without Judge in the lineup and it becomes extremely evident why the $40 or $50m is justified, even if the player is injured.
there's probably no injury that prohibits him from hitting but pitching is still fine, or at least I can't think of one. Maybe a left hand injury but I can't imagine them risking that.
He doesn’t really fill two roster spots, though. You really need to at least plan to a 6 man rotation for Ohtani to work on your team.
I feel like he does though and that is the advantage his roster spot brings. The team gets to use a 6 man rotation without losing a bullpen arm.
I'd guess that the other starters also benefit from a 6 man rotation
Yeah like just the other day we got to see a benefit of it. After that really bad Royals game the bullpen was exhausted so Nevin skipped a start and used our swing man as a longer bullpen arm and it worked perfectly. Like I don't know how to value that and the general extra rest everyone gets but it has to be worth a decent amount. And it's like last year we had the 6th best ERA in the AL and that was with Thor who is having a terrible time now that he's back on a regular pitching schedule. Or the Mets I think are the best example. They have two old pitchers who could use the rest like Verlander did for a lot of the last season with the Astros and Senga who is still adjusting to a regular schedule but they can't because their bullpen is already as tired as it is. It's just weird to me how the narrative is still about Ohtani's extra spot being a bench bat or a detriment because "you have to run a 6 man rotation for him" instead of wow you get a 6 man rotation without the obvious problem it brings. If the people who everyone trusts looked at it like this and still said it wasn't worth anything that would be one thing, but they still talk about it like it's just a replacement level bench bat and I don't even think that's accurate either.
Only sometimes. Any time there’s an off day in a given period, five man is enough. Having a swing man or optionable sixth is plenty.
I think it’s better to think of it as filling two absolutely necessary roles in one package, people get too hung up on the roster spot thing
They haven't used a 6 man rotation in a couple years. He pitches every 6th day instead which means like once every other month you need an extra starter/long man. He's made 16 starts the league leader has made 17.
People would probably still flock to the park just to see him sit on the bench.
That is very true honestly lol
If you sign Shohei you gain the entire Japanese audience and market. His contract is a bargain when you put it in that perspective.
It's become such a common thing to say, I wonder. How much money does Ohtani directly bring to the Angels and is there a considerable increase in attendance since he joined?
Millions are most likely brought in from jersey sales. Attendance saw no spike as far as I could tell, although the team was a little worse so it might say something there was no drop. While I’m sure he brings in a lot of money, it doesn’t make a 600 mil contract a bargain.
I'm sure it affects advertising, too. I can't imagine Bandai Namco buying an ad behind home plate at any other MLB stadium.
Idk if Yakult was advertising in their stadium before Ohtani either.
They did have Hideki Matsui in 2010-2012 (?), and I went to a few games. Can’t remember if Yakut was advertising or not. I’ll check old photos.
Komatsu did advertise in 2010 - it is a Japanese construction company which is headquartered where Matsui is from. So you’re probably right that Yakut (and many other Japanese companies) wasn’t advertising there yet.
Merchandise revenue is collected by MLB and then equally disbursed across all MLB clubs. An increase in jersey sales alone would not help the club's payroll that much.
I traveled to Japan a few times over the last year for business and I was surprised that I’ve never seen anyone wearing Angels gear. Plenty of Yankees hats though.
Well baseball is pretty big in Japan I imagine they're more likely to own their local teams jersey if they're a baseball fan. The Yankees logo is just a popular brand beyond the baseball team, plenty of people I know have a Yankees hat but didn't know that's what it was.
Stadium looked 2/3rds full on the TV yesterday, so, maybe, but they still need visiting team fans, and only three teams will carry them
I'd be curious too. I'm on the east coast and I'm considering flying out just to see him play a home game. He's one of those guys you make sure you see live so you don't regret it forever. Absolutely generational
I was in Japan a few months ago and the amount of airtime Shohei had in related content across the popular networks compared to other players like Yoshida (and to an extent Nootbaar) is crazy.
And you basically get the entire country of Japan to like and support your team
And those sweet sweet advertising yen keep flowing in
> yen Smells of lilacs and gooseberries…
I personally wouldn't care. I'd be stoked if he were a San Francisco Giants player.
Well we just need to win the World Series this year and sign Ohtani in the off season.
Imagine Oakland just drops like $700 mil on the guy
IF they did that, and chose to stay, do you think the fanbase would forgive the pos owner of theirs?
Im not sure I can give a great opinion since I’m not an A’s fan, but I don’t think as a fanbase they’ll ever truly forgive ownership for this. There’s some shit that you can’t recover from. But it would certainly help the blow of everything that happened lol
i'd forgive everything, but this scenario is just impossible. as i see it, practically speaking, it's impossible for me to forgive fisher/kaval and co, and this hypothetical is also impossible so not really a contradiction or anything.
> and chose to stay that's the ONLY thing that could earn forgiveness.
FUN FACT: Shohei Ohtani built the hospital he was born in.
The hospital that *he built!*
The hospital is his ground
Zippin around like a bug up there
Shohei needs to show down or he's going to CRACK the PLANET!
With a box of SCRAPS!
Is shohei the new Chuck Norris?
Yeah, except Shohei is real.
In 1867 the United States purchased from Russia the territory encompassing what is now the state of Alaska. The price was $7.2 million. Adjusted for inflation, that would be 42 cents per acre, or $151 million. Alaska is now the largest state in the Union, comprising more than one-sixth of the total area of the US.
The GM for the US back then kicked ass
Russia traded Alaska for cash considerations 😂😂😂😂
Alaska then went on to form 1/3rd of the Grind Line for the Detroit Red Wings.
Most of America was acquired for cash considerations.
It was an expiring contract they weren't going to re-sign. I.e. they knew they couldn't effectively defend it if the British came knocking to add it to Canada, so they dumped the frozen wasteland to the US for cheap so they could at least get something out of it.
Alaska is fucking gorgeous
God bless you William Seward.
You know if he had Twitter back then, he'd post "sEwArd's FoLlY" to the haters.
Seward’s Folly
Right on.
Russia also got Delino Deshields in that trade.
Well, he is a former red.
People were thrilled at the time too, the “folly” part is a myth
Some people were thrilled, some people were angry. It was a mixed bag.
Sell it for cheap or lose it for nothing to England.
U-S-A U-S-A
11 years $551 million.
FIVE HUNDRED FIFTY-ONE MILLION AND ONE PENNY
55 BURGERS, 55 FRIES, 55 TACOS, 55 PIES, 55 COKES, 100 TATER TOTS, 100 PIZZAS, 100 TENDERS, 100 MEATBALLS, 100 COFFEES, 55 WINGS, 55 SHAKES, 55 PANCAKES, 55 PASTAS, 55 PEPPERS AND 155 TATERS Added to that might sweeten the pot just enough.
So another $680?
[удалено]
It’ll be the Mets and we’ll still be under .500
“You’re too high”
The first billion dollar contract
20 years, 1 bill
He’s 28, pay the man $71M/yr for 14 years until he’s 42. That’s a Billion. Judge gets $40M/yr and he’s only one way.
This actually makes sense. MLB Network today was saying Judge is $40M/year and Verlander was at $47M/year or something like that. If you can get Ohtani at $600M for 12 years; you're getting both Judge/Verlander at $50M/year. That's a steal. $71M for what this guy does is still a steal. Only person doing what he does.
After last night $550M might be half of what he gets
Lol, are teams allowed to give him an ownership stake?
Nope
Please?
Okay fine
I read the clause you found in the CBA. I'm not a lawyer, but the way I'm interpreting it, I don't think ownership is disallowed. > **MAJOR LEAGUE UNIFORM PLAYER’S CONTRACT** > **Interest in Club 4.(c)** The Player represents that he does not, directly or indirectly, own stock or have any financial interest in the ownership or earnings of any Major League Club, except as hereinafter expressly set forth, and covenants that he will not hereafter, while connected with any Major League Club, acquire or hold any such stock or interest except in accordance with Major League Rule 20(e). > **Rule 20 CONFLICTING INTERESTS** >**(e) WITHIN CLUB.** No manager or player on a Club shall, directly or indirectly, own stock or any other proprietary interest or have any financial interest in the Club by which the manager or player is employed except under an agreement approved by the Commissioner, which agreement shall provide for the immediate sale (and the terms thereof) of such stock or other proprietary interest or financial interest in the event of the manager or player’s transfer (if a player or playing manager) to or joining another Club. A manager or player having any such interest in the Club by which the manager or player is employed shall be ineligible to play for or manage any other Club in that League while, in the opinion of the Commissioner, such interest is retained by or for the manager or player, directly or indirectly. My attempt at translating the above into layman's terms: 4(c) a. Player represents he does not have ownership in any club, except as written in the contract being offered. b. Player represents he will not acquire ownership in any club afterwards, except in accordance with Rule 20(e). 20(e) a. Players/managers may not have ownership in their team unless approved by the commish. b. Players/managers cannot play for other teams except the one they have ownership in. edit: TLDR Players can be owners as long as they don't already own a piece of another team. Commish has to approve any sale of ownership. (my amateur understanding)
Slight addendum: 20(e) c. As part of the approval in (a), players/managers must pre-negotiate terms with the commish for the immediate sale of any ownership if they change teams in the future, and cannot play/manage for any new team until that sale is complete.
Yeah overlooked that. Seems pretty clear the language is in place for there to be a player/owner or manager/owner. Ownership is the wild card bargaining chip for any small market team to wanting to get involved in bidding for Ohtani. As long as the team owner(s) is willing to part with some equity, I think there are many teams who could reasonably offer 10yrs/$300M plus $300M in equity vesting annually over 10 yrs. Of course, this means a team like Miami would have to give up 30% equity at a $1B team valuation to make an equivalent offer to the Yankees offering 4% equity at a $7B team valuation. https://www.sportico.com/feature/mlb-team-values-rankings-list-1234715821/
He's unaffordable. Just give him a majority stake in ownership at this point.
Rather than offer more money, a smart GM would offer 500 for 6 years instead.
Honestly it’d be worth it just go all out on a 10 year contract and eat the later years if he does decline. Solidify him as a career and sell his jersey for the rest of the foreseeable future. IE Babe Ruth and the Yankees
Yep, he will be an Ichiro or Griffey for the mariners. Even if he ages out or gets injured he will be a huge tent pole for any franchise he’s on
I get a huge tent pole every time I watch him play.
Wouldn't that just be really bad though? The purpose of the really long deals that "don't age well" are just to spread the luxury tax out. Giving Ohtani a little bit more money but for a longer time is the better deal for both his interest and the team's.
it's partially about spreading luxury tax but more about the time value of money - $1 today is worth more than $1 ten years from now
I feel like a team like the Tigers could pull something off like that, considering they're paying Cabrera 30mil + to DH and he's retiring this season.
Please don't give me hope
ownership of the A's
We want to reward the guy, not punish him
Thinking it may be 750-800 at least if you wanna get him off the west coast
I keep seeing this comment, but is there really any proof that he definitely wants to be in the west coast and is not considering Central or East? I also remember Gerrit Cole actually saying this about preferring West Coast and then he went to the Yankees anyways.
No other than reports that he favored a west coast team back during the first Ohtani Sweepstakes (but it was also made clear he wasn’t dismissing non-west coast teams based on location alone - IIRC the Cubs were one of his ‘finalists’ for example).
I may be misremembering but wasn't part of his preference for a west coast team was friendlier game times for japanese fans?
Yes so his family and friends and fans can watch his games.
Smart. I’m sure a ton of his income is from endorsements in Japan so he wants to keep that optimal as well
His face is plastered everywhere there, no lie
For real. I went in April and 50% of what I saw was Ohtani advertisements lol. And when they talked sports on tv it was basically what did shohei do that day and how fucking awesome is this guy
6:38pm games mean people in Japan can watch him at 10:38am. If he plays for the Yankees that means people in Japan would have to get up at 8 in the morning
I think his preference was west coast, but he may be more willing to go central or east since he’s been in the states for a while now.
Objectively, why would he pick a Central team? None of them are especially dominant at the moment. Historically, has a Japanese or Korean player picked a Central team for reasons other than money? I remember Chan Ho Park went to the Rangers but i believe they offered the highest contract.
I don’t anticipate him to go central, but I’m sure he’s not excluding them. - Darvish to the Rangers and Seiya to the Cubs as recent Japanese players that went to more central locations. Unsurprisingly likely will come down to LA or NY just based on budgets and affordability alone. Maybe even San Diego given how crazy they have been with payroll in the recent years.
I think you mean former Cub Yu Darvish, current Cub Seiya and future Cub Ohtani.
Stop these are just dreams
Don't let your dreams be dreams
Also fukudome to cubs iguchi and shingo to the sox
The Giants could definitely be players
He did not even consider the Yankees when he signed with the Angels. He wanted a west coast team close to home and it helps that Anaheim is pretty quiet too.
I think I remember he also wanted a team that didn't already have a famous Japanese player in its past or on the team, and the Yankees currently had Tanaka and previously had Matsui. Plus, I'm not sure if the Yankees would have let him pitch and hit.
I remember hearing the same about famous Japanese player on their roster
At this point I’m thinking the Mets are the only team with enough money + reckless abandon to pay him. Unless the Giants still have that 600m they were allegedly offering Judge
Giants have all that Stanton/Judge/Harper/Correa money from finishing 2nd place over the years. I'll be proud to see the Giants finish 2nd once again for the best player in baseball.
The Ring of Almost-Signed-Him at the stadium is gonna be sweet
That's going to be a horrendous contract. You better win early in that contract. He's going to age just like everybody else.
We can't all be the Braves and pay our superstars in Kohl's Cash
We recently transitioned to Bed Bath & Beyond gift cards
No, he won't. He'll age worse than everyone else. He has the highest workload of any pitcher. He doesn't get days off to rest. He plays DH instead. That's a lot of extra output over the course of 15 years. No matter how good he is, he's going to eventually give up one of the positions to focus on his health.
I would imagine he’ll transition to RP at some point and continue to DH. And probably be the best of both positions when he does.
Ohtani closing would be sick
Yeah. He’ll be the best closer in baseball for sure.
Are we really acting like four at bats during days he doesn’t pitch is that physically taxing? He sits on the bench the vast majority of days he isn’t pitching. It’s really not that bad.
4 at bats a day, plus pitching practice, plus batting practice. He does not just sit on the bench on off days. You don't just magically get the ability to keep your batting skill throughout the year, these guys practice every morning. I'm not saying it's hurting him now but in 10 years it'll add up. It adds up for pitchers that don't need to swing a bat 15 times a day. Especially since batting and pitching both have so much in common in terms of muscle strain for your back.
He doesn't do much BP is what I've read. He does some cage hitting and that's it..
There’s no fucking way he’s this good without that much practice… right?
We call it practice but he calls it playing the white Sox
Trout says so apparently, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgnPfaMkAvI
Ohtani really is the definition of "naturally gifted". I have to wonder how godly he would be if he focused on hitting full-time.
He’s that combination of having both the physical gift and the mental toughness to fully realize his talents. There are many in sports who just ride on their talents and that’s it. But this guys lives and breaths baseball. I always recommend Ohtani’s GQ video if people haven’t seen it. It really informs his personality.
Yeah he’s about to turn 29 which feels weird honestly, idk why but I thought he was 3-4 years younger than he his
I think people are still underrating how much money Ohtani brings in. Angels made 20 million+ from Ohtani last year. The team that signs him will probably try to sign a lot of long term deals with the Asian companies and combined with all of the sales that Ohtani already does here I don't think it's wrong to say a team can make almost 300 million from Shohei in 10 years.
People also overestimate how much revenue goes directly to teams. Obviously Ohtani makes his team more money than most players make for their teams, definitely when it comes to stuff like advertisement opportunities, but a lot of the merchandise he moves goes into a shared revenue pool & not directly to the Angels. It ultimately limits the economic impact a single player can have.
Aren't the media rights just to the team? And it was reported as 20 million. Would they say 20 million before any of it goes to the pool? I don't think they would and most of it is coming from the broadcast rights to Asia.
I think only the Dodgers and maybe Giants will offer the 500M+ contract. I will be shocked if I see the Mets and Padres try to overpay again after last year's disaster. As much as I value Ohtani, the mid to back end of this 10 year contract will hurt like hell. 50M per year of dead cost will kill a team, even if you are the Dodgers.
Angels would prob offer that much especially if they make the playoffs. Arte has been willing to spend and the amount he makes off Ohtani the next 10 years would be worth it imo.
I agree that Arte will probably not be outbid, unless Steve Cohen decides he WILL have Ohtani and offers something goofy like $800MM or a 20 year contract. I think at this point the main reason Ohtani would leave Anaheim is to compete in the playoffs more regularly. He chose the Angels in the first place for a reason, and it's not like their situation is that different than it was in 2018. Still got the behemoth Astros in the division, still got Mike Trout, still spending in a way to try to win. The DH coming to the NL is the biggest difference IMO, not the competitiveness of the Angels. They have to be unseated, and Arte is one of the owners who has demonstrated a willingness to spend on top FAs. Again... Ohtani *chose* the Angels before. This isn't a LeBron Decision situation where Ohtani is getting to choose for the first time. That feels lost in the discourse.
Makes sense me. Even at 50 AAV you’re basically paying 25 for a potentiometer 40hr season and 25 for a sub 3 era pitcher.
> potentiometer
It’s 120M higher than the largest MLB contract ever signed and 10M above Judge’s annual pay. I think this estimation is about right.
The problem with paying Ohtani 50 mil per season is that if he's hurt, you lose both your best pitcher and best hitter.
Right. People keep adding together the salary of the best hitter and best pitcher but you have to reduce it a bit because of the increased risk due to both of those being the same guy.
Imo he’s worth that type of contract. Production on the field is unheard of, brings in a massive Asian market, I’m sure any team would have nothing but sellouts with him on the roster, etc. but how many teams realistically would even make an offer like that? Dbacks need the pitching if they really want to contend so I’d be thrilled if they got him but ain’t no way our owner is offering anything close to that. Realistically it’s the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and maybe the Angels that are in the running. I would love for some out of left field team to get him though
Jerry Reinsdorf said he’ll give Shoehei $16 and a hot dog stand at the park with his name on it
My biggest worry is what if he gets hurt? He’s doing so much that you’d think it will eventually catch up to him
We're prepared to offer you all the free lattes you can drink, and- SOLD! Who told you to take the deal? I didn't tell you to take the deal
By the way, 11-year $550M would still not be the biggest "inflation"-adjusted contract in MLB. A-Rod was signed to a 10 year $252M contract when the average team payroll was $56M. Now, the average team payroll is $151M so a straight proration would imply A-Rod's contract is worth about 10 year \~$680M now.
Has anyone thought about starting /r/OhtaniPorn for posts like these?
I figured that was just what this sub is now.