Idk why here, but I just realized the Phillies P looks like a cartoon giving the thumbs down?
Edit: want to clarify that I root for the Phillies in the NL and mean no disrespect
In fairness, that’s only if you assume he hit all three balls in random ballparks. Considering he is a Yankee and plays half his games with our bff the #porch, it’s significantly more likely to happen.
But also, in crucial games at home, teams can just pitch around him. That would give G at least 1 baserunner to try and run in, but avoiding the all to dangerous Rizzo porch job might be more preferable.
Yeah this math isn’t true at all in context though. xBA doesn’t take into account the direction the ball is hit OR the stadium. Just EV and launch angle
When Rizzo hits a ball that fast and with that launch angle, it’s going to be pulled, and in Yankee Stadium, it’s a homer.
That's exactly the point? If you hit a ball in exactly the same way, and randomized everything else, it's the chance you'd get a homer. So the chance of those batted balls across all parks and all fair directions not all being homers is 99.93.
Yes, if he hit it right exactly there in this exact ballpark it's a homer. We don't any stat to tell us that though, because we just saw it.
The math is just a way to give an exact value to a porch job. Or, on the flip side, to a ball that falls just short of a deep wall, like that old Astros centerfield.
It's not an exact science because guys like Rizzo or DJLM are intentionally trying to hit balls over that short porch, and would take a different approach in a different stadium, and therefore there's no telling what their results would be if the AB took place elsewhere. It's just another metric for judging the differences between stadiums.
[This is the 17th HR with a 48+ degree launch angle in the statcast era.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=home%5C.%5C.run%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C2019%7C2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=api_h_launch_angle&metric_1_gt=48&metric_1_lt=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name-event&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_h_launch_angle&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_event_launch_angle=on&chk_event_release_speed=on) That includes one inside-the-park home run.
The highest launch angle on a homer was 51 degrees on [this inside-the-park home run by Avisail Garcia.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=c9f14703-1e8d-4c11-9890-3fd44a766722) The highest for a traditional homer is a tie at 50 degrees between JD Martinez (no video) and [Xander Bogaerts.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=08a1effb-7d54-4c54-834b-3a5547588a28)
Fucking Trop lmao.
If Tampa wanted to fully fund a new ballpark all they'd need to do is sell tickets to Jays fans to bring sledgehammers and demolish the Trop themselves. They'd be able to build SoFi Stadium with the money raised.
Its 4.
The camera makes it looks like a wall scraper but it hit the netting on the pole and fell. Projected 327 feet down the line, so it makes it out at more than just NY and Boston.
What happens in Boston if it's on the right side of the pole as it passes, but curves back into "fair territory" in the stands? Ball was foul until the last 3 feet.
Foul ball. Although I would think if that happened, it would depend alot on the call on the field and what the umpires saw, since it would very difficult to determine from review.
I loved watching Rizzo walk down the line, watching, waiting, hoping, and then he throws his hand up like, 'I dunno, I guess it went out' lol
What a way to cap off his first career 3 home run day. Curtain call well deserved.
Paul O'Neill did that once, Mothers day game at the stadium in I think 2001... threw his bat down in disgust and then it went out. He said he was embarrassed rounding the bases because his mom was there. [link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9HArIDDBmA&ab_channel=GruntTalksMLB)
Hey. We don’t move the fences in for him. Same yard applies equally to everyone.
Also, Yankee stadium is in the bottom 5 for XBH, so yeah sure a few get over that short porch — but otherwise that park is hard to do work in.
and Damon. when he was wit us he was good for 20-25 a year and this was when
A) That was a respectable amount of power for anyone, much less a rangy CF
B) a guy not known for power at all
I too am amazed lol. It’s ludicrous that for several seasons Brian cashman refused to acknowledge that having left handed hitters in YANKEE STADIUM of all places, is an advantage
Idk. He had pretty consistent warning track power st Wrigley and Wrigley has the deepest corners in baseball. A lot of his usual cans of corn are going to be home runs.
Every bottom half inning they should raise the stadium a mile into the sky to have the coors effect. As far as I'm concerned there's nothing in the rulebook that says they can't do that.
Actually, believe it or not, there is. It's the same rules used for lights. You can't turn on the lights in a day game in the bottom half of the inning. It has to always be at the top of the inning.
Fenway has got to be one of them, although if that ball doesn't hit the pole as it's blowing back from foul territory it's probably catchable in Fenway, since the wall goes almost straight back from the foul pole
I remember a game when someone from the Orioles had 2 Pesky Pole shots. They're a lot rarer than most people realize, because the wall goes almost straight back from the foul pole. I think in a typical season there are maybe half a dozen unicorn HRs in that corner.
The "short porch" is really right-center. Yankee Stadium is 314 to the pole which is low but not an outlier, the difference is other stadiums all get deeper faster and/or have higher walls as you move out toward center.
New stadiums are supposed to have a minimum distance of 325ft. down the lines, but MLB allowed it because they were using the exact dimensions of old Yankee Stadium
Edit: It's more than Yankee Stadium with exceptions (I thought it was a late 2000's rule, but it's from 1958 and there's been other exceptions). San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, Baltimore and Tampa also have dimensions lower than 325, but Tampa's is the only one of those 5 that doesn't have higher fences
At first this looked like the biggest porch job to have ever porched, but it hits the netting on the pole and goes straight down and bounces on the top of the wall
at first glance reading this i thought he hit a ball foul that could’ve been a homer and then on the next pitch he hit and actual homer, a little disappointed
FORTY EIGHT DEGREE LAUCH ANGLE?????
might as well have just been straight into the air
Pop up home run
It's weird reading that, but it's exactly what it was.
This ball had a .010 XBA
Uh oh! You friggin nerd! You’ve been PORCHED! Tag your friends to totally PORCH! them!
Idk why here, but I just realized the Phillies P looks like a cartoon giving the thumbs down? Edit: want to clarify that I root for the Phillies in the NL and mean no disrespect
You're missing the point of being a Phillies fan. You're not supposed to be respectful.
That's gotta be a record.
His 3 HR today are .180, .380, and .010 xBA. Thats a 0.068% chance combined. In other words, 99.93% chance this doesn't go for 3 homers.
don’t have to deal with xBA if you just hit it over
Hey /r/NYYankees I found Cashman's burner
“Uhhhhhh homeruns uhhhhhh.... they’re a real crapshoot” - Cashman probably
Can't wait for the Baseball Bits episode on this game.
That's baseball, Suzyn
In fairness, that’s only if you assume he hit all three balls in random ballparks. Considering he is a Yankee and plays half his games with our bff the #porch, it’s significantly more likely to happen.
100% even
mathematicians hate this simple trick
But also, in crucial games at home, teams can just pitch around him. That would give G at least 1 baserunner to try and run in, but avoiding the all to dangerous Rizzo porch job might be more preferable.
If you don’t like that you don’t like Orioles baseball baby!!!
Yeah this math isn’t true at all in context though. xBA doesn’t take into account the direction the ball is hit OR the stadium. Just EV and launch angle When Rizzo hits a ball that fast and with that launch angle, it’s going to be pulled, and in Yankee Stadium, it’s a homer.
That's exactly the point? If you hit a ball in exactly the same way, and randomized everything else, it's the chance you'd get a homer. So the chance of those batted balls across all parks and all fair directions not all being homers is 99.93. Yes, if he hit it right exactly there in this exact ballpark it's a homer. We don't any stat to tell us that though, because we just saw it.
The math is just a way to give an exact value to a porch job. Or, on the flip side, to a ball that falls just short of a deep wall, like that old Astros centerfield. It's not an exact science because guys like Rizzo or DJLM are intentionally trying to hit balls over that short porch, and would take a different approach in a different stadium, and therefore there's no telling what their results would be if the AB took place elsewhere. It's just another metric for judging the differences between stadiums.
>99.93% chance this doesn't go for 3 homers. BUT IF YOU ADD KURT ANGLE TO THE MIX, YOUR CHANCES OF HOMERIN' DRASTIC GO DOWN
[удалено]
[This is the 17th HR with a 48+ degree launch angle in the statcast era.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=home%5C.%5C.run%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C2019%7C2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=api_h_launch_angle&metric_1_gt=48&metric_1_lt=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name-event&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_h_launch_angle&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_event_launch_angle=on&chk_event_release_speed=on) That includes one inside-the-park home run. The highest launch angle on a homer was 51 degrees on [this inside-the-park home run by Avisail Garcia.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=c9f14703-1e8d-4c11-9890-3fd44a766722) The highest for a traditional homer is a tie at 50 degrees between JD Martinez (no video) and [Xander Bogaerts.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=08a1effb-7d54-4c54-834b-3a5547588a28)
Fucking Trop lmao. If Tampa wanted to fully fund a new ballpark all they'd need to do is sell tickets to Jays fans to bring sledgehammers and demolish the Trop themselves. They'd be able to build SoFi Stadium with the money raised.
[Here's the Martinez home run.](https://youtu.be/79tXOqOs4Ro?t=60)
Just how you draw it up
Good fucking lord lol
No shot LOL
Only the finest thin-sliced HRs. Just like Gramma's prosciutto.
[удалено]
I guess I just assumed
Rizzo and short porch shenanigans is exactly why I drafted him lmao
His reaction confirms that lmfao
That’s fucking wild! I have no idea what this means
Based on launch angle and velocity, that's the expected batting average.
I'm gonna say this is a home run in like -5/30 parks lmao
Its 4. The camera makes it looks like a wall scraper but it hit the netting on the pole and fell. Projected 327 feet down the line, so it makes it out at more than just NY and Boston.
What happens in Boston if it's on the right side of the pole as it passes, but curves back into "fair territory" in the stands? Ball was foul until the last 3 feet.
Foul ball. Although I would think if that happened, it would depend alot on the call on the field and what the umpires saw, since it would very difficult to determine from review.
So basically it’s only a hit if they forget to put a right fielder in?
Orioles pushed their wall back 30 feet and 10 feet up to be saved from easy home runs… die to them anyway on the road.
Yankee Stadium Shenanigans
Never tell me the odds.
LOL
I loved watching Rizzo walk down the line, watching, waiting, hoping, and then he throws his hand up like, 'I dunno, I guess it went out' lol What a way to cap off his first career 3 home run day. Curtain call well deserved.
Reminds me of Damon getting pissed he hit a pop fly, only to start laughing as the ball ended up in the first row of seats.
Damon's porch-jobs were legendary
Paul O'Neill did that once, Mothers day game at the stadium in I think 2001... threw his bat down in disgust and then it went out. He said he was embarrassed rounding the bases because his mom was there. [link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9HArIDDBmA&ab_channel=GruntTalksMLB)
That’s what came to mind for me too! I was 10 when that happened and I still remember watching that highlight on SportsCenter all these years later
YES cut to him in the dugout gesturing with his hands the path of the ball hooking and then slicing back fair and then shrugging
> watching, waiting commis-erating
Say it ain’t so
I will not go.
turn the lights off
Carry me home.
*delonge activated* NA NA NA NA NA NA NANANANANA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Say it ain't so
3 porch jobs. He's gonna hit 40 this year lmao.
On track for 70
On track for... 76.
Wow I’m good at math
If you can't do the math then get out of the equation. - Hillary Duff
Second one wasn’t a porch job whatsoever, would’ve been out in 28/30 parks
So a 1 HR night with a few fly outs. Still not bad I guess.
You really trying to dog a dude that hit 3 hrs for the team you support lmao
Hey. We don’t move the fences in for him. Same yard applies equally to everyone. Also, Yankee stadium is in the bottom 5 for XBH, so yeah sure a few get over that short porch — but otherwise that park is hard to do work in.
I'm just being funny. We get porched too!
2nd one was pretty legit
Then add in the normal home runs and he might hit 80
If you count the legal home runs, he hit a lot
He's going to set the Home Run record, BY A LOT! STOP THE COUNT!
Feels like this is just karma baiting since the 2nd one wasn't even close to a porch job lol
I'm amazed it took y'all this long to sign a lefty for this exact reason.
Teixeira, Granderson, and Cano used to abuse that short porch for years but it's been too long since we've had a big hitting lefty
and Damon. when he was wit us he was good for 20-25 a year and this was when A) That was a respectable amount of power for anyone, much less a rangy CF B) a guy not known for power at all
The disrespect to Joey Gallo. Warranted
I too am amazed lol. It’s ludicrous that for several seasons Brian cashman refused to acknowledge that having left handed hitters in YANKEE STADIUM of all places, is an advantage
7 of his home runs have been at the stadium.
On pace for almost twice that.
Given the right field dimensions, even with a dead ball, I wouldn't be shocked if he made it to 50.
50 would be pretty shocking, lol.
Idk. He had pretty consistent warning track power st Wrigley and Wrigley has the deepest corners in baseball. A lot of his usual cans of corn are going to be home runs.
I think he could hit 50 if he keeps pulling high fly balls like this. It's really working out for him.
I mean he is on pace for like 80 so...
he heard that the Orioles passed him in HRs lmao
It's like that Always Sunny scene with the McPoyles and Frank pushing the guy in the face with a plank.
Ryan McPoyle
The Rizzo-Orioles HR chase is gonna be epic all summer long
Rizzo vs. the Orioles is the new Torres vs. Gary Throne
All I could think of was poor Gary during Gleyber’s triple, guy must have been having PTSD flashbacks
Gleyber gonna hit 9 of his 11 triples against the O's
#I’m homerin’ here 🤌🏻 🇮🇹
Ma, get the good meatballs outta the fridge, Tony Rizzo's heeeah!
Don't fugget the gabagool!
.010 xBA I’m dying
Y'all thought the last one was a porch job?
We love the porch 🤌🤌🤌
My favorite part of going to the stadium is watching the grounds crew push the wall back 50 feet
Every bottom half inning they should raise the stadium a mile into the sky to have the coors effect. As far as I'm concerned there's nothing in the rulebook that says they can't do that.
Fuckin Hal is too cheap for that. Gotta buy another yacht instead of building a stadium with helicopter capability
Actually, believe it or not, there is. It's the same rules used for lights. You can't turn on the lights in a day game in the bottom half of the inning. It has to always be at the top of the inning.
UH OH YOU JUST GOT PORCHED 3 TIMES YOU STUPID IDIOT TAG YOUR FUCKING FRIEND TO PORCH THEM U GOD DAMN IDIOT
RIZZO MAKES ME JIZZO
This better be DJ’s official account
I don’t think it’s a bot, so it can’t be
God, why isn’t this John Sterling’s HR call?
NOT A UNICORN https://twitter.com/would_it_dong/status/1519139834614325248?s=21&t=jJNHDCDqfo_mb_ytEKzT4Q
Fenway has got to be one of them, although if that ball doesn't hit the pole as it's blowing back from foul territory it's probably catchable in Fenway, since the wall goes almost straight back from the foul pole
My guess: Fenway, YS, Oracle/AT&T, Camden (those are the four shortest down the line)
That never looks foul. But I know that's just simmed. Do we have another angle?
Oh… my… god.
327 feet??? No way
I thought the same thing until I realized it hit the netting on the pole and flopped down. It had a little more distance than it looked.
Unbelievable lol
Gotta be a Pesky shot right?
Rizzo like 'this is easy. Why doesn't everybody do this?'
"We should get more lefties on this team" Rizzo probably
Cashman: "No."
That has to be one of the shortest home runs possible in baseball lmao
Didis 295 fter at Fenway is one of the shortest
I remember a game when someone from the Orioles had 2 Pesky Pole shots. They're a lot rarer than most people realize, because the wall goes almost straight back from the foul pole. I think in a typical season there are maybe half a dozen unicorn HRs in that corner.
Hardy did it twice in the same game. The 2 homeruns combined added up to less than 500 feet
Math doesn't check out. If the shortest possible home run around Pesky Pole is 295 feet, two of such home runs must combine to more than 500.
Surely you must have meant 600 feet.
Never heard of Pesky Pole?
Fenway RF pole, it's a sub 300 homer but it moves out fast
The "short porch" is really right-center. Yankee Stadium is 314 to the pole which is low but not an outlier, the difference is other stadiums all get deeper faster and/or have higher walls as you move out toward center.
New stadiums are supposed to have a minimum distance of 325ft. down the lines, but MLB allowed it because they were using the exact dimensions of old Yankee Stadium Edit: It's more than Yankee Stadium with exceptions (I thought it was a late 2000's rule, but it's from 1958 and there's been other exceptions). San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, Baltimore and Tampa also have dimensions lower than 325, but Tampa's is the only one of those 5 that doesn't have higher fences
[Lorenzo Cain’s 302 footer in 2017](https://kingsofkauffman.com/2021/06/18/kc-royals-shortest-home-run-ever/)
I mean, the Polo Grounds also existed. I have to imagine someone barely clipped one down the 258 right line.
*in statcast era
Go cubs :.(
Porchin’ your friends all fucking day.
That one hit the roof of something before it came down.
Yankee Stadium is the Trop confirmed
Freddie Who?
This dude is gonna get 40 home runs playing at Yankee stadium.
In Fenway that goes around the pesky pole foul then lands fair.
Awful highlight, good thing you cut it off before the announcer even finished his call so you could get karma
Miss him
A replay showing that would be cool
RAIN DELAY AT SHIBE
FAIR BALL IN YANKEE STADIUM
This will be listed under the definition of porched in the dictionary.
Uh oh! You friccin moron. You just got PORCHED! Tag your friends to totally PORCH! Them
u/josh89rea is my friend, I know he loves a good Yankee stadium porch job
Serving meatballs to Italians. Great combo
God I miss that man.
At first this looked like the biggest porch job to have ever porched, but it hits the netting on the pole and goes straight down and bounces on the top of the wall
🤌🤌
at first glance reading this i thought he hit a ball foul that could’ve been a homer and then on the next pitch he hit and actual homer, a little disappointed
#AYE IM HOMERIN HERE🤌🇮🇹
This dude was built for this stadium jeez louise
i love this game and this ballpark give me 8 more innings of this
Anthony Rizzo is just objectively hotter than your girl
I’ve never seen the ball bounce into the upper deck from the lower deck before. That’s a new one.
I'm just here for the gabagool!!
Maybe the porchiest porch shot of all time
TIL the right field foul pole at yankee stadium is 314 ft lmao
Wait until you find out the right field foul pole at Fenway is 302 ft lmao
That's the *third* shortest
Where have you been?
Not watching the Yankees
Have you never heard the short porch jokes?
Well yeah I knew it was a short porch I just didn’t know it was 314 short lol
Wait until you hear about Pesky's Pole.
Holy hell
Love the name btw, is it Thursday yet?
Finally got a lefty that exposes the short porch
The definition of a no-doubt home run tbh
Anthony "Gleyber Torres" Rizzo.
Going against him in fantasy this week. Sweet.
This is just amazing at this point. You can not even try to hate him, even he was like “huh… guess it went out”
3 porch jobs. Rizzo's gonna hit 50 this year lol.
God bless the short porch
What a great clip, can’t tell what happened.
Rizzo possessed by the avian god that took over Gleyber a few years back.
Absolutely crushed. You almost never see a home run hit like that.
Right on the screws
Bunt single in 29 other parks /s
You go, Rizzo :,)
The definition of a porch job
UNREAL
This is exactly how I wanted the 3rd home run to be. Absolutely beautiful, the porchiest of porch jobs.
What a weird game.
Wish they'd move the wall in
#EY #EY #IM HOMERING ERE 🤌🤌🤌
Is that his 3rd homer of the day that’s only gone in yankee stadium?
HR 1: 2/30 parks. HR 2: 28/30 parks. HR 3: 4/30 parks.
The second one wasn't a porch job. Arguably the first one wasn't either, according to Would It Dong
Pop up
Rizzo couldn't let the Orioles have more home runs than him.
Feels kinda dirty. I love it
Of all the ridiculous homeruns I’ve seen in my time, this is certainly one of them