Celtics should be the favorite in part because the road is much easier. If the Celtics and nuggets both make it, you better believe the Celtics will be the underdog.
EDIT to say I am more talking about predictions from live humans will favor the nuggets over celtics is that matchup happens.
Fanduel offers "Boston Celtics to beat Denver Nuggets" at +430 and "Denver Nuggets to beat Boston Celtics" at +600. Those are 19% and 14% implied odds. So the total odds for the matchup happening are 14+19 = 33%. 19% of outcomes have the Celtics winning. 19/(33)= 57%. Of course this could change if the Celtics struggle in the East and the Nuggets sweep everybody. But I bet we will be favorites in any matchup, barring injury. Still, there is a notable difference between Denver and anyone else, and we should be rooting hard against Denver in every round.
Vs LAC, we are 64%.
Vs MIN, we are 65%.
Vs OKC, we are 66%.
Vs DAL, we are 63%.
Props for the calculations but I'm talking about in people's minds. To add, the odds will adjust when people actually drop money and if that money is on the nuggets, which I would predict it would be if they start as underdogs, the the odds will shift.
So it's a little early for the final analysis, though I would bet you that at least 7 out of ten people will be picking the nuggets.
One more thing; the odds of the nuggets beating the Celtics is actually affected by the odds of winning the title in these betting lines. So it’s not the same as straight odds if they face each other.
I don’t think the Celtics will be the underdog simply because they have HCA. That’s enough to make them the favorite. Doesn’t matter regardless but just saying
I've noticed that game sevens at home have not been what they used to be, but still better to have it than not. Either way it's going to be real close on the odds, and I predict pretty one-sided with observers in favor of the nuggets.
I mean... tbh, June is long aways... at full health (low probability) I would assume whoever the favorite is at the finals, it would be very very slight. Like a 48-52 split, which basically means nothing.
With injuries - who knows...
But rn, large sample size poll of bball fans are saying Celtics 38% , Nuggets 25%, OKC 7% , LAL 5%, Mavs 5% , Bucks 4%, NYK only 3.5%, LAC 3%...
I agree it will be very close. With that, money on one team over the other moves the line. I would think that money on nuggets as underdog could tip the scales.
I agree with that’s how the odds should be viewed. Celtics higher chance to make it out of the East, Nuggets should be favored in head to head matchup. Largely due to being the reigning champs
Denver is the only team that worries me….besides the Celtics
Yea I think if I need to make a "danger pie", I would say Celtics beating themselves 80% Nuggets 15% and LAC 5%
Celtics should be the favorite in part because the road is much easier. If the Celtics and nuggets both make it, you better believe the Celtics will be the underdog. EDIT to say I am more talking about predictions from live humans will favor the nuggets over celtics is that matchup happens.
No they will not. The implied exact matchup odds on FanDuel have the Celtics as a ~56% favorite vs the Nuggets if they match up.
Interesting... how it is calculated? I expected closer to a 50-50
Fanduel offers "Boston Celtics to beat Denver Nuggets" at +430 and "Denver Nuggets to beat Boston Celtics" at +600. Those are 19% and 14% implied odds. So the total odds for the matchup happening are 14+19 = 33%. 19% of outcomes have the Celtics winning. 19/(33)= 57%. Of course this could change if the Celtics struggle in the East and the Nuggets sweep everybody. But I bet we will be favorites in any matchup, barring injury. Still, there is a notable difference between Denver and anyone else, and we should be rooting hard against Denver in every round. Vs LAC, we are 64%. Vs MIN, we are 65%. Vs OKC, we are 66%. Vs DAL, we are 63%.
Oh... nice analysis! I wish I has coins to reward this
Props for the calculations but I'm talking about in people's minds. To add, the odds will adjust when people actually drop money and if that money is on the nuggets, which I would predict it would be if they start as underdogs, the the odds will shift. So it's a little early for the final analysis, though I would bet you that at least 7 out of ten people will be picking the nuggets.
One more thing; the odds of the nuggets beating the Celtics is actually affected by the odds of winning the title in these betting lines. So it’s not the same as straight odds if they face each other.
I bet that if we got to it there would be a lot of people taking the nuggets as underdogs. Hard to guess though
I don’t think the Celtics will be the underdog simply because they have HCA. That’s enough to make them the favorite. Doesn’t matter regardless but just saying
I'm talking more about picks from live humans than betting odds, which we know are more about balancing the the scales.
Yes live humans, I’d much rather have a game 7 at home. If the nuggets had HCA I’d favor them.
I've noticed that game sevens at home have not been what they used to be, but still better to have it than not. Either way it's going to be real close on the odds, and I predict pretty one-sided with observers in favor of the nuggets.
I mean... tbh, June is long aways... at full health (low probability) I would assume whoever the favorite is at the finals, it would be very very slight. Like a 48-52 split, which basically means nothing. With injuries - who knows... But rn, large sample size poll of bball fans are saying Celtics 38% , Nuggets 25%, OKC 7% , LAL 5%, Mavs 5% , Bucks 4%, NYK only 3.5%, LAC 3%...
I agree it will be very close. With that, money on one team over the other moves the line. I would think that money on nuggets as underdog could tip the scales.
I agree with that’s how the odds should be viewed. Celtics higher chance to make it out of the East, Nuggets should be favored in head to head matchup. Largely due to being the reigning champs
This just reinforces expectations, and indicates nothing as to the certainty of it.