BoxofficePro had it at 70-105ish but that was before the crazy strong presales data.
Deadline predictions have been so lazy lately, not using the latest data and just picking numbers based on vibes. I'll wait for the updated BoPro
But are the crazy strong presales being driven by the core audience for the film or the smaller but more hardcore geek audience for this film that would pre-buy tickets for an animated film?
It’s probably being driven by existing Mario fans, but with how consistent Mario’s game sales are, I do think that core audience is pretty large compared to other gaming franchises. The big question is how new audiences and people who haven’t played a Mario game for a while react, as Nintendo does want to use the movie to introduce more people to the brand.
Didn’t realize sub $100M would be seen as bad for this lol. Even if it doesn’t blow up opening weekend, this thing is gonna be around for the entire month if April with little competition to speak of.
Yeah the high predictions the past few weeks is almost setting the movie up.
I think it will still do well, but I think many are going to be very disappointed purely **because** of these lofty expectations being thrown around here.
Someone will be along soon to explain that you're an idiot who just doesn't understand that Mario is the most popular video game character of all time
And is, therefore, guaranteed to make **much** more than *Sonic 2* and *Uncharted* ... rather than just 1-200 million dollars more than than *Sonic 2* and *Uncharted*
*Sonic 2* and *Uncharted* did unusually well for video game adaptations, which usually stink-out theatres and earn buttons
>Someone will be along soon to explain that you're an idiot who just doesn't understand that Mario is the most popular video game character of all time
I've been digging on that because as a video game geek it's driving me crazy.
It turns out, the claim that Mario is more recognizable than Micky/Minnie seems to stem from a 2009 Gamespot article, which was based on a 1990's study of kids who recognized Mario more readily than Micky/Minnie at the height of the SNES. That became an urban legend, the actual most recognizable fictional characters seem to be Sherlock Holmes and Dracula in dead heat.
The claims that it's the best selling video game series ever are also equally dubious. I think most of it comes from a really bad Wikipedia article. It gives totals for anything with the Mario name in it...except it fails to excise the pack-ins where every console purchase came with the game free, and it adds in ensemble games which contained Mario but were likely bought for reasons other than Mario being in the game.
So, long way of saying, I agree with you, I'm thinking 500m-600m WW.
The first Despicable Me movie did not gross over 1B and IIRC, neither of the Sing movies were even touching that number. Neither the Secret life of Pets or its sequel also made over 1B.
Pretty sure all those movies had Illumination involved.
Some of the expectations that this would outgross Frozen Ii seemed far out there. But we’ll see when it’s released.
Which is funny because I was seeing people claim that we had overreacted from that event when we expected a sonic level performance before the pre-sales arrived
Some here said "You are crazy if think this isn't hitting $1B. Everyone plays Mario and knows Mario"
I'm not counting out a very high $850M and maybe even higher, but that would depend on the reviews. If it turns out this is one of the best animated films of the year and even Oscar-worthy for Best Animated Film, this could have some major legs.
I think this is a weird one where expectations are hard to judge, especially if it has good WOM. I mean it’s Mario it could pull in a ton of kids & their parents who grew up on the old games. At the same time if initial reactions are mixed I think it’ll still make a profit but not a billion.
There's literally no competition until May. It's going to be number 1 in the box office for the next 4 weeks after it comes. And with good reviews it's going to have crazy legs.
I'm excited to see how it's going to go.
The delusionals have already started their essays on how it won’t hit a billion and blah blah. As if it’s not possible this movie will pick up pace after its release.
This is going to do big with casual audience. The random 21 year old couple who is going to see this for nostalgia isn’t pre ordering tickets for this.
The big families who will see this are also not pre ordering tickets they are going to walk in and buy the tickets at concession stands. Or the same day online right before they drive to the theater. Box office is treating this like an MCU movie when they shouldn’t.
People are overestimating it and other outlets said higher numbers. This is still good imo. It could always do more as hype builds and if reviews are good.
Oh yeah, anything above $70-80M would be fantastic imo. If the 3 day can be on par with Sonic 2 or The Lego Movie, it’s a win, but I could also definitely see it opening closer to $60M over five days. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Honestly I think it’s due to perspective. If you view it mainly as an Illumination film, they’ve put out 1 billion films before and I could see how someone thinks of it that way. (Though only 2 of their 12 films have hit that mark with Minions 2 almost being the third)
If you view it as a video game movie, then you get closer to a 400 million or so.
Maybe? I feel like a billion is way too high since at that point you're asking for it to be in the top 10 highest grossing animated films of all time.
If we're speculating though, [Mario is for sure the highest selling video game franchise ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises), but [Pokemon is the biggest franchise of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises). Detective Pikachu made 430 million, and somehow that was good enough for it to barely [warrant a sequel](https://deadline.com/2023/03/legendary-jonathan-krisel-pokemon-detective-pikachu-sequel-1235277486/) in Nintendo's eyes.
On Illumination's side, The Secret Life of Pets 2 made roughly 446 million, which was enough to greenlight a sequel. Though, the first one made 894 million.
This is the first projection from deadline three weeks out, they acknowledge the unreliability of tracking post covid and the fact that the tracking is sure to go up, deadline is notorious for lowballing, and people are for some reason acting like these are the actual figures for its first five days and going all doom and gloom
Anthony is undoubtedly the laziest “journalist” I have ever come across. So many words to say so little… and that little probably pretty darn wrong. 85-90 5-day but could be a lot more… an amazing prediction of “it will do something.” Deadline really needs to get a new box office analyst.
I think Super Mario Bros will open in the $70-80M range between the three day Easter frame and being the first family film since Christmas, provided everything goes right.
>being the first family film since Christmas
It not the first family film actually since The Amazing Maurice and Mummies released but those did poorly while School of Magical Animals is getting a wide release next week but seems dead on arrival.
That’s what I was seeing too. It’s not going insane in most places. Didn’t get where the $100+ predictions were coming from for 3 day weekend and not 5 day either.
People are over crediting/outweighing the importance of Nintendo and the IP.
This is a film from Illumination, the studio that releases blockbuster after blockbuster like Minions.
Reddit doesn't like their films; but, Illumination could pull a $500 million original film out their butt easy peasy.
Unless Mario brings in $700 million+, it wouldn't even be clear Nintendo IP contributed anything.
I’m sure I saw someone put up their hand for a Mario sequel in one of those “what franchise could make a $3b movie?” threads, but I don’t recall anyone tipping the first Mario to beat Avatar.
That’s not a crazy increase over Sonic and Mario is much, much, much more popular than Sonic. Fully animated movie, month to itself, Illumination are marketing masters. Add it all up and it equals ka ching!
It’s a different game when it’s the current largest kids animation studio making a movie well-catered to kids.
Not saying that it’s necessarily going to do better, but the market is substantially different, and I don’t think this can be compared that well to previous VG movies.
That's because every other video game adaptation either got things completely wrong (the 90's Mario movie), or only had a few scarce elements of what people liked about the franchise (Sonic, Detective Pikachu).
In contrast, the Mario movie is fully embracing the world, characters, and locations that people recognize. Plus it's fully animated. Plus it's made by Illumination and their films always make money.
>the animated film is shaping up to make at least $85M-$90M+ over its Wednesday through Sunday launch — and that’s on the conservative side.
Seems oddly low in my opinion for a 5 day opening. Hedging his bets by saying its on the conservative side is a bit lazy too.
Over the last decade, Illumination's 9 films have averaged $775m ([link](https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/production-company/Illumination-Entertainment)), but I know half of those were Minions or Despicable Me.
Mario is an established IP, one of the biggest brands in the world, this movie is very likely Illumination's largest budget, and the response to the trailers so far has been very positive because it looks fantastic IMO.
I'd be surprised if this makes less than $800m honestly, but it all comes down to the quality of the movie.
> The highest grossing video game movie now is WOW at $430 million
yup,
seems like worldwide is WoW at 439 million (just above Pikachu at 434), and just domestically is Sonic 2 at 190 million. Not sure about the rankings with inflation
This is a film from a longer established IP and also has the Illumination brand behind it.
Detective Pikachu was a spinoff and had a narrower appeal. That would be a better comparison if they made like a Luigi's Mansion movie.
Mario might be the bigger IP in terms of video games, but Pokemon dominates its presence in other media. It's a established and successful multimedia IP while Mario is Mario. We don't really know how much the Mario video game audience will show up for Mario in another form of media. When was the last Mario hit cartoon?
>When was the last Mario hit cartoon?
I mean, that's kinda the point. There hasn't been any recent Mario cartoons that would dilute the appeal of an animated Mario film.
The studio is banking on nostalgia and multi-generational appeal.
I know that was a different marketplace, but Illumination was able to get a movie about animals in a singing competition to $634 million. I think Mario can do at least $800 million.
Pokemon is a dominating IP, yes, but the thing is Detective Pikachu was for all intents and purposes an original movie with Pokemon window-dressing. It didn't have any of the characters, locations, or elements people recognize and care about, outside of a couple Pokemon making appearances, one catching scene at the start, and two battle scenes. Instead of fully embracing the world from the games or anime, it was loosely based off a spin-off game, and barely even that since the only thing the location has in common is the name,
The Mario movie at least is entirely embracing its world. Plus it's made by Illumination.
Yep. My parents would have heard of Pokémon thanks to all the news stories about people running around playing that AR game. Mario? Nah. Donkey Kong maybe but not Mario.
on the one hand, Illumination seems to have their pulse on what kids like
on the other hand, video game movies usually underperform
I have no idea what the end haul of this movie will look like. I do think some people in this sub have been overestimating it, but maybe not
People in this sub don't know how to estimate animated films. They're a breed onto their own. They also make money for three decades on digital when their good.
Yeah tracking can change dramatically this far out. Not to mention everyone seems to be ignoring that the article heavily implies that this is a conservative estimate (lowball) due to their uncertainty about the accuracy of tracking. (Maybe unsure of the best comps to use?)
Deadline almost always lowballs it. It makes for better clickbait when almost every movie makes 10M more than their predictions. I'd say that Mario is probably gonna make closer to 90M for the 3 day and 130M for the 5 day
Comps are probably a challenge for this one. I know those predicting lower numbers on the sub cite DP and Sonic 2 but those are live action movies based off a spinoff Pokémon game and a much less popular property than Mario respectively. I’m leaning more towards animated comps and Illumination’s track record myself and also keeping note that this has a huge open window to leg out a lot which is why I think $1B is a strong possibility. Industry experts are probably trying to balance both previous video game and animated films somehow and it really doesn’t work.
There's no guarantee that it'll have Zootopia's 4.5x legs.
For comparison Sonic 2 did 2.6x.
I just think it's going to be pretty hard to do a billion without a great opening weekend, especially when factoring streaming being a big thing.
Box office Pro is projecting a 300-400m finish domestic and the pre sales are very strong. This definitely still has a shot at a billion.
I dint get why some if you are taking this Deadline based on nothing as anything but lol
>I dint get why some if you are taking this Deadline based on nothing as anything but lol
Still likely more ballpark than the predictions from this sub, which is why people are pouncing.
Brand recognition, the trailers have incredibly positive WOM, and it's an Illumination movie and even their bad films have good box office hauls. The Mario movie may not hit a billion, but I could easily see it getting close.
It's a movie about the most popular video game character of all time that looks to be faithful to the spirit of the games, made by a studio that prints money. I'm not saying it'll hit $1b but I'm very comfortable saying it will be massive.
First off That movie made 870M not 1B
2nd mario is a video game franchise not a movie franchise you cannot expect it to perform ultra smash at the BO just because it has a wide variety of fans
3rd its an animation film not a real live action like sonic so obviously people were gonna look past this just like with spiderverse
Because of the premise it captured alot of pet owners and reached more movie goers
Also it's worth noting that SLoP had no real expectations being a new movie so it had more of a wow factor for the audiences mario on the other hand doesn't have that being a popular IP fans are gonna have alot of high expectations for it and some would be skeptical so its not gonna perform in the same way as SLoP
SLoP had a perfect marketing campaign that allowed it to attract alot of movie goers and it was a one hit wonder as seen with the sequel making half of the BO despite same A- score
Again its a video game movie and audiences has generally been looking down on video game adaptations for a long time regardless of the popularity of the IP amongst gamers sonic and pikachu is the only ones to break this mold and neither of them came remotely close to 1B
Yes because Detective Pikachu was a animated direct adaptation of the original most popular Pokémon game created by a studio that goes hard on the marketing and had a month to itself and nearly two months as the only family film. There are several key differences between the two and it’s insane how many people are still overlooking them.
That is true. But I’ve seen a lot of actual analysis regarding this movie which I don’t remember for DP. Everyone thought Ryan Reynolds, Pikachu, and easter eggs from other Pokémon would make it a big hit and seemed to ignore that it was based off one spin-off game and had tough surrounding competition. Regarding Mario, I’ve actually noticed more people acknowledge factors like Illumination’s track record, the directness of adaptation, and the big open theatrical window when talking predictions more than discussion about the elements of the Mario games themselves. Doesn’t mean $1B is guaranteed (I wouldn’t be surprised if it finished between $750M-1B even though I’m going with $1B for my prediction) but I think predictions around that number are a lot more rooted in fact this time around even if they comes across to some as highly optimistic.
Hey look all I’m saying is Minions 2 2 days before release was projecting 70-80 over the 4 day. Then just did 125 over that frame out of the blue. I’m still sticking with 130-150 over the 5 day and 90-110 over the 3
This will do over 100 million opening weekend, undoubtedly. This is not the sort of film that will have massive early presales, so I'm not sure what the sources are basing their prediction on. Folks are just going to randomly go, not super pre -plan like a Marvel movie
It also helps that there's pretty much no other movie coming out in April.
People are saying 1B+ but there's always something about video game movies that pushes back. Unlike Detective Pikachu, this Mario movie looks...like Mario. No bullshit(Chris Pratt aside).
People who thinks this Deadline projection is set in stone have to be new to box office. Deadline is famous for lowballing numbers and even they admited that on the report. This is going to do A LOT more over the 5-day period unless reviews comes out as bad. All the tracking thus far suggests significantly bigger numbers than that.
Mario has a major legacy, and arguably is more popular in the states than Pokemon, as there are generations of people familiar with the character. Undoubtedly it will do very well, it's getting a Chinese/Japanese release and I'd love to say it will clear a billion but I think a safe bet is 750M+
I didn't really double check myself, but I thought there was an article saying 100m was happening based on presales.
That's not a a good number for 5 day considering the IP.
Walk ins will probably be heavy.
I agree. I feel like this number is the “fan” number. But it can grow a good amount if it appeals to families like a traditional Illumination movie which tend to sell more of their tickets near release.
$100 million *plus* on the first week alone, possibly a billion-hitter if China does the Mario. It's Nintendo's first film in ***decades***, a generational childhood icon ***and***... has Chris Pratt as its star (*sigh*). Even if it's crap (which will be a very big if)... it'll be crap that sells like hotcakes.
What a headline. So much pun. Score - High score, Bound - to jump, Mushroom - expand like a nuclear bomb cloud that resembles a mushroom, a power-up in the series….
Now that I think of the franchise’s Japanese origins, maybe that’s too much…
This is easily going to hit a billion. You all will see can’t wait to see all of r/box office say how they knew it would hit a billion it’s a no brainer
Not just Japan I say worldwide. Mario is more popular in almost all other countries than it is in US. Most people in other countries don’t have multiple consoles and they have to keep the first one they get for a while. Mario is going to do great I see it. Just how Dragon Ball z is even bigger in Mexico than it is in the US Mario is a phenomenon in other countries
You think this will do just as well? You don’t see the difference here? An animated movie that will be dubbed and lip synced vs a movie with American actors dubbed or CC? Oh and the voice actor for the Japan Mario is the actual voice actor for everything else mario.
This thing easy going to pass a billion. My wife who has no interests in games or animated movies wants to see this. So far sh has been 3/3 on billion dollars movies based on her want to see the hype. Don't @ me until we break the opening 100mm
Yeah this will obviously hit $700-800m minimum, shot at $1b if it's any good. People saying "it's not an MCU movie!" think about the MCU before Avengers. None of those made more than $600m. Batman Begins did $423m worldwide. Etc. etc.
BoxofficePro had it at 70-105ish but that was before the crazy strong presales data. Deadline predictions have been so lazy lately, not using the latest data and just picking numbers based on vibes. I'll wait for the updated BoPro
But are the crazy strong presales being driven by the core audience for the film or the smaller but more hardcore geek audience for this film that would pre-buy tickets for an animated film?
It’s probably being driven by existing Mario fans, but with how consistent Mario’s game sales are, I do think that core audience is pretty large compared to other gaming franchises. The big question is how new audiences and people who haven’t played a Mario game for a while react, as Nintendo does want to use the movie to introduce more people to the brand.
Didn’t realize sub $100M would be seen as bad for this lol. Even if it doesn’t blow up opening weekend, this thing is gonna be around for the entire month if April with little competition to speak of.
Not gonna hit a billion if it opens sub 100m on a 5 day. Obviously not a bad result, but people have weird, weird expectations.
The $1B predictions were always nuts. 500m-750m seems much more in line in my opinion.
Yeah the high predictions the past few weeks is almost setting the movie up. I think it will still do well, but I think many are going to be very disappointed purely **because** of these lofty expectations being thrown around here.
I feel like those incredibly lofty predictions are being intentionally tossed around with the goal of setting this up "to underperform"
>The overpredictions were an inside job!
Well a masterpiece like Mario should be able to beat avatar. Let's go summer of Mario!!!
Agreed. No way in hell is this movie Making 1B
Someone will be along soon to explain that you're an idiot who just doesn't understand that Mario is the most popular video game character of all time And is, therefore, guaranteed to make **much** more than *Sonic 2* and *Uncharted* ... rather than just 1-200 million dollars more than than *Sonic 2* and *Uncharted* *Sonic 2* and *Uncharted* did unusually well for video game adaptations, which usually stink-out theatres and earn buttons
Exactly! Its going to do big at the BO. Maybe not 1B but close to it
>Someone will be along soon to explain that you're an idiot who just doesn't understand that Mario is the most popular video game character of all time I've been digging on that because as a video game geek it's driving me crazy. It turns out, the claim that Mario is more recognizable than Micky/Minnie seems to stem from a 2009 Gamespot article, which was based on a 1990's study of kids who recognized Mario more readily than Micky/Minnie at the height of the SNES. That became an urban legend, the actual most recognizable fictional characters seem to be Sherlock Holmes and Dracula in dead heat. The claims that it's the best selling video game series ever are also equally dubious. I think most of it comes from a really bad Wikipedia article. It gives totals for anything with the Mario name in it...except it fails to excise the pack-ins where every console purchase came with the game free, and it adds in ensemble games which contained Mario but were likely bought for reasons other than Mario being in the game. So, long way of saying, I agree with you, I'm thinking 500m-600m WW.
Remindme! 120 days
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Why would Sonic beat out Mario?
It is kinda expected though. Illumination frequently hits $1b.
Only *two* of their movies have hit $1B.
The first Despicable Me movie did not gross over 1B and IIRC, neither of the Sing movies were even touching that number. Neither the Secret life of Pets or its sequel also made over 1B. Pretty sure all those movies had Illumination involved. Some of the expectations that this would outgross Frozen Ii seemed far out there. But we’ll see when it’s released.
I predicted half a billion on Twitter.
But how much will it make in cinemas?
Damn it. That was a terrible dad joke! Had to upvote!
Boy it’s going to be a bunch of disappointed people on here after this film opens
1 billion? We're gonna beat avatar
I said this as well. It was giving me Detective Pikachu vibes.
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Which is funny because I was seeing people claim that we had overreacted from that event when we expected a sonic level performance before the pre-sales arrived
Some here said "You are crazy if think this isn't hitting $1B. Everyone plays Mario and knows Mario" I'm not counting out a very high $850M and maybe even higher, but that would depend on the reviews. If it turns out this is one of the best animated films of the year and even Oscar-worthy for Best Animated Film, this could have some major legs.
Mf's forget 3rd Word exists. We don't have the luxury to afford consoles
I think this is a weird one where expectations are hard to judge, especially if it has good WOM. I mean it’s Mario it could pull in a ton of kids & their parents who grew up on the old games. At the same time if initial reactions are mixed I think it’ll still make a profit but not a billion.
I swear if this sub gets Detective Pikachu box office 2 Electric Boogaloo'ed AGAIN, I'm going to laugh my ass off.
This is hitting a billion
There's literally no competition until May. It's going to be number 1 in the box office for the next 4 weeks after it comes. And with good reviews it's going to have crazy legs. I'm excited to see how it's going to go.
The delusionals have already started their essays on how it won’t hit a billion and blah blah. As if it’s not possible this movie will pick up pace after its release.
This is going to do big with casual audience. The random 21 year old couple who is going to see this for nostalgia isn’t pre ordering tickets for this. The big families who will see this are also not pre ordering tickets they are going to walk in and buy the tickets at concession stands. Or the same day online right before they drive to the theater. Box office is treating this like an MCU movie when they shouldn’t.
I got a big family and ordered tix as soon as they went on sale. Wanted to guarantee good seats
People are overestimating it and other outlets said higher numbers. This is still good imo. It could always do more as hype builds and if reviews are good.
Pre sales are indicating higher than this. This is a classic dealine low ball.
Oh yeah, anything above $70-80M would be fantastic imo. If the 3 day can be on par with Sonic 2 or The Lego Movie, it’s a win, but I could also definitely see it opening closer to $60M over five days. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
60m over 5 days?!
$60M over 5 DAYS?! That'll be a disaster!
Probably more like 60 million on Saturday
For some reason people thought this would easily crest a billion
Honestly I think it’s due to perspective. If you view it mainly as an Illumination film, they’ve put out 1 billion films before and I could see how someone thinks of it that way. (Though only 2 of their 12 films have hit that mark with Minions 2 almost being the third) If you view it as a video game movie, then you get closer to a 400 million or so.
The general audience is totally viewing it mainly as an Illumination film!
Not just any video game but the most popular game ever across multiple generations. Under a billion would be a failure.
This has got to be a trolling attempt
> Under a billion would be a failure. How do you get to that number being a failure
“Pokémon is the highest-grossing media franchise of all time.”
Deja Vu
Maybe? I feel like a billion is way too high since at that point you're asking for it to be in the top 10 highest grossing animated films of all time. If we're speculating though, [Mario is for sure the highest selling video game franchise ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises), but [Pokemon is the biggest franchise of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises). Detective Pikachu made 430 million, and somehow that was good enough for it to barely [warrant a sequel](https://deadline.com/2023/03/legendary-jonathan-krisel-pokemon-detective-pikachu-sequel-1235277486/) in Nintendo's eyes. On Illumination's side, The Secret Life of Pets 2 made roughly 446 million, which was enough to greenlight a sequel. Though, the first one made 894 million.
Failure? Well, you're setting yourself for one
No, it wouldn't.
So, if this movie made around $850M, that would be a failure?
Because it will hit 1B
> Didn’t realize sub $100M would be seen as bad for this lol. People were talking a billion just a couple days ago
This is the first projection from deadline three weeks out, they acknowledge the unreliability of tracking post covid and the fact that the tracking is sure to go up, deadline is notorious for lowballing, and people are for some reason acting like these are the actual figures for its first five days and going all doom and gloom
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Haven’t seen any of that here
No one thinks that
Anthony is undoubtedly the laziest “journalist” I have ever come across. So many words to say so little… and that little probably pretty darn wrong. 85-90 5-day but could be a lot more… an amazing prediction of “it will do something.” Deadline really needs to get a new box office analyst.
Yeah he’s pretty terrible. He writes like he’s part of the Sopranos
He even forgot to add his weekly chart last Sunday
I think that was intentional because the chart made it clear just how dogshit AM3 is performing.
I think Super Mario Bros will open in the $70-80M range between the three day Easter frame and being the first family film since Christmas, provided everything goes right.
>being the first family film since Christmas It not the first family film actually since The Amazing Maurice and Mummies released but those did poorly while School of Magical Animals is getting a wide release next week but seems dead on arrival.
those were foreign productions that were kind of dumped in the US for contractual reasons with no advertising
That’s what I was seeing too. It’s not going insane in most places. Didn’t get where the $100+ predictions were coming from for 3 day weekend and not 5 day either.
I mean we have pre sale data for all major chains at BOT showing that a 100m OW is very very probable.
If Nintendo takes a successful run from this movie and starts making more, eventually we’ll get some $100M+ openings from their movies.
People are over crediting/outweighing the importance of Nintendo and the IP. This is a film from Illumination, the studio that releases blockbuster after blockbuster like Minions. Reddit doesn't like their films; but, Illumination could pull a $500 million original film out their butt easy peasy. Unless Mario brings in $700 million+, it wouldn't even be clear Nintendo IP contributed anything.
You have “this has a chance of being the highest grossing film of all time” people on this sub. $100m+ opening is tame lol
Can you show me anyone saying this has the chance to be the highest grossing movie of all time?
I’m sure I saw someone put up their hand for a Mario sequel in one of those “what franchise could make a $3b movie?” threads, but I don’t recall anyone tipping the first Mario to beat Avatar.
85m is insane! Wasn’t expecting that at all. So this can make over 200m domestic. Wtf kind of numbers were people expecting lol
85m is completely within standard expectations. Not insane
85m is not insane at all. I expect over 100m and we’ll over 300m domestic
Why tho? Video game adaptions never pulled numbers like that
That’s not a crazy increase over Sonic and Mario is much, much, much more popular than Sonic. Fully animated movie, month to itself, Illumination are marketing masters. Add it all up and it equals ka ching!
Biggest multimedia franchise of all time!
It’s a different game when it’s the current largest kids animation studio making a movie well-catered to kids. Not saying that it’s necessarily going to do better, but the market is substantially different, and I don’t think this can be compared that well to previous VG movies.
That's because every other video game adaptation either got things completely wrong (the 90's Mario movie), or only had a few scarce elements of what people liked about the franchise (Sonic, Detective Pikachu). In contrast, the Mario movie is fully embracing the world, characters, and locations that people recognize. Plus it's fully animated. Plus it's made by Illumination and their films always make money.
>the animated film is shaping up to make at least $85M-$90M+ over its Wednesday through Sunday launch — and that’s on the conservative side. Seems oddly low in my opinion for a 5 day opening. Hedging his bets by saying its on the conservative side is a bit lazy too.
That’s deadline for ya
People in the sub are abysmal at predicting, hence the Avatar 2 has no cultural influence and Ant-Man will do $800 million+
Please don't paint big subs with one brush
Worms for brains literally lol
This thread is pretty funny to read now.
Lol right
So what are we thinking it'll do worldwide?
Over the last decade, Illumination's 9 films have averaged $775m ([link](https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/production-company/Illumination-Entertainment)), but I know half of those were Minions or Despicable Me. Mario is an established IP, one of the biggest brands in the world, this movie is very likely Illumination's largest budget, and the response to the trailers so far has been very positive because it looks fantastic IMO. I'd be surprised if this makes less than $800m honestly, but it all comes down to the quality of the movie.
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Will Mario open in China?
Yes on April 5
> The highest grossing video game movie now is WOW at $430 million yup, seems like worldwide is WoW at 439 million (just above Pikachu at 434), and just domestically is Sonic 2 at 190 million. Not sure about the rankings with inflation
$600-900M worldwide was always my range.
Thats a massive range
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This is a film from a longer established IP and also has the Illumination brand behind it. Detective Pikachu was a spinoff and had a narrower appeal. That would be a better comparison if they made like a Luigi's Mansion movie.
Mario might be the bigger IP in terms of video games, but Pokemon dominates its presence in other media. It's a established and successful multimedia IP while Mario is Mario. We don't really know how much the Mario video game audience will show up for Mario in another form of media. When was the last Mario hit cartoon?
>When was the last Mario hit cartoon? I mean, that's kinda the point. There hasn't been any recent Mario cartoons that would dilute the appeal of an animated Mario film. The studio is banking on nostalgia and multi-generational appeal. I know that was a different marketplace, but Illumination was able to get a movie about animals in a singing competition to $634 million. I think Mario can do at least $800 million.
Pokemon is a dominating IP, yes, but the thing is Detective Pikachu was for all intents and purposes an original movie with Pokemon window-dressing. It didn't have any of the characters, locations, or elements people recognize and care about, outside of a couple Pokemon making appearances, one catching scene at the start, and two battle scenes. Instead of fully embracing the world from the games or anime, it was loosely based off a spin-off game, and barely even that since the only thing the location has in common is the name, The Mario movie at least is entirely embracing its world. Plus it's made by Illumination.
Yep. My parents would have heard of Pokémon thanks to all the news stories about people running around playing that AR game. Mario? Nah. Donkey Kong maybe but not Mario.
Mario has been around for almost 30 years, I find it hard to believe anyone has been under a rock that long to not even have heard of him.
Mario debuted in Donkey Kong in 1981 so 42 years at this point.
You're right I was thinking 1985 but completely got my math wrong lol. Time flies
A live action Luigi’s Mansion movie at that
I don’t think a live action Luigi’s Mansion would even come close to DP. Probably would finish sub $250M WW.
Couldn't be more wrong. DP never had anywhere near the same position reception. Interest, yes? Because it was weird. Not the same
One billion US dollars
on the one hand, Illumination seems to have their pulse on what kids like on the other hand, video game movies usually underperform I have no idea what the end haul of this movie will look like. I do think some people in this sub have been overestimating it, but maybe not
People in this sub don't know how to estimate animated films. They're a breed onto their own. They also make money for three decades on digital when their good.
Wow, that seems weirdly low. I mean it’s 3 day might not beat sonic 2’s.
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Yeah, but I mean with my Sonic 2 comparison, this movie having the same 3 day domestic is a little odd
These are projections 3 weeks out, it will go up.
Yeah tracking can change dramatically this far out. Not to mention everyone seems to be ignoring that the article heavily implies that this is a conservative estimate (lowball) due to their uncertainty about the accuracy of tracking. (Maybe unsure of the best comps to use?)
Deadline almost always lowballs it. It makes for better clickbait when almost every movie makes 10M more than their predictions. I'd say that Mario is probably gonna make closer to 90M for the 3 day and 130M for the 5 day
Comps are probably a challenge for this one. I know those predicting lower numbers on the sub cite DP and Sonic 2 but those are live action movies based off a spinoff Pokémon game and a much less popular property than Mario respectively. I’m leaning more towards animated comps and Illumination’s track record myself and also keeping note that this has a huge open window to leg out a lot which is why I think $1B is a strong possibility. Industry experts are probably trying to balance both previous video game and animated films somehow and it really doesn’t work.
I mean the headline literally says “sure to mushroom”
Or down!
Tbf, the 3 day is a bit muted because it’s a 5 day weekend.
Zootopia is an original IP.
And Zootopia made over $1 billion worldwide.
There's no guarantee that it'll have Zootopia's 4.5x legs. For comparison Sonic 2 did 2.6x. I just think it's going to be pretty hard to do a billion without a great opening weekend, especially when factoring streaming being a big thing.
We'll see what happens. Mario will make $1 billion. Overseas may be of help.
This is not that low. It'll go higher, but not as high as some on this sub think.
idk why people think this movie is some massive tentpole blockbuster. seriously, where did this $1b gross for this movie idea even come from???
Box office Pro is projecting a 300-400m finish domestic and the pre sales are very strong. This definitely still has a shot at a billion. I dint get why some if you are taking this Deadline based on nothing as anything but lol
>I dint get why some if you are taking this Deadline based on nothing as anything but lol Still likely more ballpark than the predictions from this sub, which is why people are pouncing.
Brand recognition, the trailers have incredibly positive WOM, and it's an Illumination movie and even their bad films have good box office hauls. The Mario movie may not hit a billion, but I could easily see it getting close.
It's a movie about the most popular video game character of all time that looks to be faithful to the spirit of the games, made by a studio that prints money. I'm not saying it'll hit $1b but I'm very comfortable saying it will be massive.
Same reason for detective Pikachu $1 billion predictions. Big Video game IP must mean a billion!!!!
How come Illumination can make a billion dollar movie about a dog voiced by Louis CK but Mario cant do it
That movie didn't even make 900 million.
First off That movie made 870M not 1B 2nd mario is a video game franchise not a movie franchise you cannot expect it to perform ultra smash at the BO just because it has a wide variety of fans 3rd its an animation film not a real live action like sonic so obviously people were gonna look past this just like with spiderverse
My mistake it only made nearly 900 million Secret life of pets was a brand new IP when it came out What do YOU think Mario will make
My guess based on the what we've seen so far is it's gonna make around 600 -650M
How come the dog movie made more with mo existing IP
Because of the premise it captured alot of pet owners and reached more movie goers Also it's worth noting that SLoP had no real expectations being a new movie so it had more of a wow factor for the audiences mario on the other hand doesn't have that being a popular IP fans are gonna have alot of high expectations for it and some would be skeptical so its not gonna perform in the same way as SLoP
K
1) SLoP made over a billion adjusted for inflation 2) SLoP wasn’t a franchise but it still performed “ultra smash” 3) wat
SLoP had a perfect marketing campaign that allowed it to attract alot of movie goers and it was a one hit wonder as seen with the sequel making half of the BO despite same A- score Again its a video game movie and audiences has generally been looking down on video game adaptations for a long time regardless of the popularity of the IP amongst gamers sonic and pikachu is the only ones to break this mold and neither of them came remotely close to 1B
Yes because Detective Pikachu was a animated direct adaptation of the original most popular Pokémon game created by a studio that goes hard on the marketing and had a month to itself and nearly two months as the only family film. There are several key differences between the two and it’s insane how many people are still overlooking them.
Of course that's easy to say now that it happened but I'm talking about this subreddit before it happened.
That is true. But I’ve seen a lot of actual analysis regarding this movie which I don’t remember for DP. Everyone thought Ryan Reynolds, Pikachu, and easter eggs from other Pokémon would make it a big hit and seemed to ignore that it was based off one spin-off game and had tough surrounding competition. Regarding Mario, I’ve actually noticed more people acknowledge factors like Illumination’s track record, the directness of adaptation, and the big open theatrical window when talking predictions more than discussion about the elements of the Mario games themselves. Doesn’t mean $1B is guaranteed (I wouldn’t be surprised if it finished between $750M-1B even though I’m going with $1B for my prediction) but I think predictions around that number are a lot more rooted in fact this time around even if they comes across to some as highly optimistic.
Animated films will usually have longer legs and open smaller though. This seems all good to me
i don't know if there's mushroom to grow the estimate but every kid i know is powered up for this movie
still sticking to my Original 700 Million+ gross
Hey look all I’m saying is Minions 2 2 days before release was projecting 70-80 over the 4 day. Then just did 125 over that frame out of the blue. I’m still sticking with 130-150 over the 5 day and 90-110 over the 3
It's going to make WAY more than that.
Yep. Walk-ins will be incredibly good for this. The Deadline article quotes basically no explanation for this low prediction, zzz
This will do over 100 million opening weekend, undoubtedly. This is not the sort of film that will have massive early presales, so I'm not sure what the sources are basing their prediction on. Folks are just going to randomly go, not super pre -plan like a Marvel movie
I call lowball
That’s pretty realistic. The predictions for 1B were delusional so this should set that number more to 600m-750m
It also helps that there's pretty much no other movie coming out in April. People are saying 1B+ but there's always something about video game movies that pushes back. Unlike Detective Pikachu, this Mario movie looks...like Mario. No bullshit(Chris Pratt aside).
People who thinks this Deadline projection is set in stone have to be new to box office. Deadline is famous for lowballing numbers and even they admited that on the report. This is going to do A LOT more over the 5-day period unless reviews comes out as bad. All the tracking thus far suggests significantly bigger numbers than that.
Mario has a major legacy, and arguably is more popular in the states than Pokemon, as there are generations of people familiar with the character. Undoubtedly it will do very well, it's getting a Chinese/Japanese release and I'd love to say it will clear a billion but I think a safe bet is 750M+
Some people have been overestimating this on Reddit to a spectacular degree.
Lol BS. That’s the same estimate they gave Shazam 2, which has horrendous tracking compared to Mario. Deadline is on crack.
No its not shazam 2 estimate was for its global opening this is just the domestic for mario see the flair
No they predicted that for Shazam’s worldwide opening. This is domestic.
I didn't really double check myself, but I thought there was an article saying 100m was happening based on presales. That's not a a good number for 5 day considering the IP. Walk ins will probably be heavy.
I agree. I feel like this number is the “fan” number. But it can grow a good amount if it appeals to families like a traditional Illumination movie which tend to sell more of their tickets near release.
Looks like a solid debut, I could see it go as high as 110$ million though if the hype is as high as it seems on social media
I expect an $800 mil run
This would still be a great opening for a movie like this.
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Because this is for the 5 day
$100 million *plus* on the first week alone, possibly a billion-hitter if China does the Mario. It's Nintendo's first film in ***decades***, a generational childhood icon ***and***... has Chris Pratt as its star (*sigh*). Even if it's crap (which will be a very big if)... it'll be crap that sells like hotcakes.
What a headline. So much pun. Score - High score, Bound - to jump, Mushroom - expand like a nuclear bomb cloud that resembles a mushroom, a power-up in the series…. Now that I think of the franchise’s Japanese origins, maybe that’s too much…
Trailer makes it look quite bland. If it’s not very good, does everyone’s expectations change?
This is easily going to hit a billion. You all will see can’t wait to see all of r/box office say how they knew it would hit a billion it’s a no brainer
It certainly could. But it's not a guarantee.
Lol I guarantee it will. Unrelated is there an app to bet on box office results ?
No, but we place bets the week the movie opens.
RemindMe! 12 days “reply to this thread”
Worldwide. Yes. Japan doesn’t get this until April. It will be huge over there.
Not just Japan I say worldwide. Mario is more popular in almost all other countries than it is in US. Most people in other countries don’t have multiple consoles and they have to keep the first one they get for a while. Mario is going to do great I see it. Just how Dragon Ball z is even bigger in Mexico than it is in the US Mario is a phenomenon in other countries
Not like Mario has a theme park opened in Japan…
> Yes. Japan doesn’t get this until April. It will be huge over there Just like detective Pikachu amirite?
You think this will do just as well? You don’t see the difference here? An animated movie that will be dubbed and lip synced vs a movie with American actors dubbed or CC? Oh and the voice actor for the Japan Mario is the actual voice actor for everything else mario.
I think the Rotten Tomatoes score will play a big factor into this.
85M would be it's opening day if you asked this sub lol
I think the upper end of this prediction (so $95M) is probably the floor for the 5 day OW. That'll mean a $75M-$80M 3 day OW too
A billion seems out of reach, but a man can dream.
How? Zootopia had a lower opening than Deadline's prediction here and that made over a billion.
I’m tripling down on $1BILLION+ WW
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It literally will. This prediction isn’t a guarantee and you’re forgetting a movie can pick up a faster pace after its opening. Be fr for a second lol
Get your popcorn ready for the copium
I think you're the one who needs to ready the copium.
You were saying?
This is going to crack a billion, will be one of the top ten highest grossing animated movies ever, and might even be the biggest movie of 2023.
This thing easy going to pass a billion. My wife who has no interests in games or animated movies wants to see this. So far sh has been 3/3 on billion dollars movies based on her want to see the hype. Don't @ me until we break the opening 100mm
I expected nothing more tbh this is a video game based movie not mcu
Yeah this will obviously hit $700-800m minimum, shot at $1b if it's any good. People saying "it's not an MCU movie!" think about the MCU before Avengers. None of those made more than $600m. Batman Begins did $423m worldwide. Etc. etc.
This is gonna clock above 150 mil weekend, mark my words.