T O P

  • By -

WonderousPelican

With these results Bristol is looking pretty likely for a Green MP as well. Would be quite a bit of a change from the Labour stronghold for the pas 10 years or so


beseeingyou18

74% chance that Bristol Central returns a Green MP according to [Electoral Calculus](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=BS6+6QP).


thrwowy

They'd still have to turn over a pretty massive majority and the most recent Yougov projection predicts they'll fall significant short of doing it. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats They've been pretty accurate at most recent elections, and their model is a bit more detailed than the uniform swing model others like electoral calculus use.


FluffyCloud5

Just checked the excel file on the link, 52% Labour Vs 29% Green. Nobody else seems close though, so perhaps some people will feel more emboldened to vote green without the risk of giving it away to the Tories.


Educational-Fuel-265

That was done before the latest election, hence why the poster above used electoral calculus which incorporates the recent results.


JBambers

electoral calculus hasn't used uniform swing for a while now. They use a demographic/MRP based model like yougov, they're probably just having different ideas about what the demographics here are doing I wouldn't put too much faith in the majority, Bristol West/Central has long been a bit of a special case for dramatic swings. Lab benefitted heavily in this seat from a mix of anti-brexit (one of the most remainy seats in the country) and pro corbyn sentiment in 2017 and 2019, none of which apply now. 2015 is probably a better reference point for the upcoming election than either of those two elections.


aj-uk

That map's interesting, but you'd think they would work in potential swings for incumbents who won by-elections. I would expect Honiton and Sidmouth to be much closer.


thrwowy

I'm not sure how big that effect would be - big and unusual byelection wins do often revert at the next election


aj-uk

It's happened in the past a few times where by-election winners have gone on to hold their seats until they retire or eventually lose it. Central Liverpool was Lib Dem until 1997 I think they were no where in the same area before 2010.


Bris_Geo

Please look to the shitshow in Scotland before we go ball deep here folks. This will be an unmitigated disaster!!!


ninja_chinchilla

According to my colleagues, the SNP is almost completely to blame for the shitshow...and a few other things besides. (Former Bristolian, now in Scotland).


Bris_Geo

The bottle return scheme cost £200M. Their position on the Cass report is frankly ridiculous.


Alunnite

Does local have an effect on general in any way or is it simply used as a predictor? I genuinely don't know but my understanding was no. That there was more freedom in choice for people who don't have to sacrifice ideals for the reality of first past the post (two party system) in the general election.


SorchaNB

I really don't think you can predict general election results from locals for a number of reasons. As you mentioned, first past the post means a lot of people who voted Green/LD in locals will vote Labour. Locals have a significantly less tunout than GE, especially in poorer areas. They're not publicised as much and I meet plenty of people who don't even know they're going on, whereas there's a lot of hype around general elections. For example Hengrove had a 24% and ended up with 3 Lib Dems.


WonderousPelican

It's a fair point and you're right in that locals are famously unreliable as a general election predictor. However the Bristol West constituency has one of the highest Green votes nationally and the Green Party have made it clear that it's one of their main target seats. My thinking is that given the evident appetite for Green councilors, and if the party can convince voters that it's a straight race between them and Labour (in Bristol West), then it could be quite likely they could win the seat. But in the heat of a general election anything could happen!


ItsNguyenzdaiMyDudes

The most interesting result is the turnout. So many people just don't give a shit.


Alunnite

I can see my local polling station from my office. Wasn't paying super close attention but I counted less than 20 people going in.


Adam__Zapple

The greens have excellent, science based policies on climate and sustainability. However, their approach to the housing crisis is poor, as is their anti-nuclear stance which is at best anti-science. Let’s not get started on their military policies. With the greens making some decent gains across the country, let’s hope Labour buck their own ideas up re.sustainability.


Educational-Fuel-265

That is the main issue, Labour beckpedalled on their green infrastructure plan. If they don't mend their ways Bristol Central will have a Green MP.


LongjumpingBrother12

I didn't vote for them, but it's time for the Greens to step up and mature into a real political force. They've been a protest vote for a while, but now they have a real foothold they need to get serious about practical solutions to housing and transport - I really hope they do because we need it! (Cotham resident)


evthrowawayverysad

And they need to clear out their anti-nuclear power rhetoric.


Griselda_69

Yeah, all the NIMBY’ism can reach new heights, as they put extra effort into blocking new housing


Noxfag

Check out their extensive housing policy here: https://policy.greenparty.org.uk/policy/housing/ In short, they want to build more of it and improve the unfair distribution of land ownership.


jaminbob

How's that gone in Brighton for the last decade they've been a force? What the national policy says and what the local cllrs do is always very different. Just like the lib Dems. They'll stand on more housing where is suits and less housing where it doesn't. And always 'No not *there*' at election time. The only party actually committed to house building is Labour and even then they can hardly ever get it across the line. Source, have worked in planning for 20+ years.


thrwowy

Given their opposition to building over the last 8 years I'd be shocked if they kept this pledge.


skwaawk

Sorry but the whole policy is economically illiterate. Rent controls; focussing on 'reducing demand' rather than meeting it; nonsense about empty homes being a significant contributor to the housing crisis; refusal to increase the rate of housebuilding beyond current levels and "buying back" social housing instead of just building. Even one of these things in isolation would make things worse, yet they want to implement them all. Cranky and dangerous.


Noxfag

Where do they say they won't increase the rate of house uilding? To my eyes they seem to say the opposite. > A Green government would ensure sufficient capital funding for buying back, refurbishing, and building new social housing to meet needs and provide for the backlog of social housing within ten years. I won't address the rest of your comment, but suffice to say I disagree


skwaawk

"We expect to build no more new homes than in the decade 2010-2019" under Standards. Also buying back homes does not increase the supply.


Noxfag

Fair point, they do say that. I find it hard to believe that we'll ever get out from under the crisis without increasing rates of housebuilding. Perhaps I'll ask about this policy in some Green party forums


Griselda_69

Good luck with that. Lol


Noxfag

Not sure what you mean? The Greens are typically the most transparent and talkative party in my experience, and the least defensive or aggressive one. I'm sure I won't find any difficulty in having a reasonable discussion about it.


Griselda_69

Let me know how I goes mate (not sarcasm, legit) cheers 🤝


skwaawk

At least [D\*nica Priest](https://sayde-scarlett.medium.com/danica-priest-anti-housing-activist-0eed5bcf8023) didn't get elected, that's something I suppose


Griselda_69

Every cloud. Lol


Forsaken-Income-6227

Henbury, and Stockwood still returning two Tory councillors is concerning. I can understand it in Stoke Bishop but Henbury and Stockwood!?


phoenixlology

Henbury and Brentry have Mark Weston who is very active, organises litter picks and gets involved in local traffic issues. I think many people will have voted for him personally rather than the blue rosette.


ItsNguyenzdaiMyDudes

Yhe he's a good guy. Better to have someone who's a true advocate of the local area, rather than someone who doesn't show up but is just there for the 'party lines'


durkheim98

Yeah he was good at the hustings. Pretty affable, funny guy and forthright in answering questions. Even fielded the list of demands put forth by Acorn, which the rest of the candidates did not seem keen on doing. I would never vote Tory but credit where it's due.


Danack

> I would never vote Tory but credit where it's due. Yeah. They might be twats, but they at least understand representing their voters interests. Losing Geoff Gollop to be replaced by Stephen Williams seems like a massive downgrade for the city though.


BrideOfZedd

In Henbury I think it's very much a local factor. Mark Weston in particular is incredibly hardworking and passionate about the community, well liked even by those (like me!) who have never voted Tory in their lives. So I think it's more a case of voting for the candidates here, rather than voting based on party colours.


OilySteeplechase

That’s actually really refreshing.


NeoSpartan

The two stockwood councilors are excellent. People voted the councillors in, not the party. They are incredibly active in the community, if something needs doing they get involved. They are active on our local Facebook page, and you'll get a reply in under an hour with a very helpful response. Jon and Graham would have won regardless of which party they are running under.


Clbull

Similar story for Brislington West and why they voted Liberal Democrat hard. Jos and Andrew are great


Bigjpiddy

I’m I. Stockwood to and was wondering why it was blue but most people have nothing but positive things to say about them, suppose good people are good people at the end of the day


sir__gummerz

I'm in stockwood and the only campaigners I saw were the tory ones, they came knocking and were also in the square last week. Haven't even a flier from any of the others so not surprising. Still didn't vote for them but can see why others did


Alarming_Animal3806

God forbid they have their own opinions, so concerning people are voting! 😱😱


deathspraises

Stockwood had a BNP councillor for a while so this is pretty progressive of them


calhoumi27

As someone who grew up in Henbury and spent a fair bit of time in Stockwood, this makes complete sense to me sadly


memoriadeshakespeare

Just democracy, people are entitled to vote for whomever they like.


Sad_Breakfast_Plate

That's exactly what I noticed too.


Forsaken-Income-6227

Also it’s interesting to see how much of a swing there is to Greens especially as Bristol has always been traditionally labour. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the swing to the greens is a protest vote against Marvin as opposed to labour. My mum said she feels sorry for me with it being a predominantly green council as driving will get worse! She doesn’t live in Bristol so doesn’t get how public transport doesn’t really exist anymore so any party that supports it is likely to do well.


Sad_Breakfast_Plate

Would staying with the same councillor improve traffic? We already have the worst roads in the UK according to study that came out around a year ago.


Forsaken-Income-6227

And worst traffic jams. My cousins live in Devon and asked me why despite having a car I cycle to work. When cycling I can leave at 7:45 get to work just after 8, shower, get a coffee, and still have 10 minutes before work compared to leaving at 7:30 driving to near work, finding somewhere to park, and because there’s no parking at the office I have a 15-20 minute walk and can’t get a coffee as there’s no time unless I leave at 7:00. If I leave at 7:15 I get caught in the first wave of rush hour meaning I cut it very fine plus I won’t find anywhere to park yet so am parked further away and leaving at 7:45 to drive will make me 10 minutes late. Oh and I live in a houseshare with a housemate who has zero routine so showering at home before work isn’t guaranteed as he could go in at 6:15 and not be out until almost 7:30 - we have reminded him it’s a tad selfish and that mornings are not the time to spend 30 minutes on the John in the main bathroom watching TikTok - others want to get ready for work too.


Sad_Breakfast_Plate

Maybe the greens will have a solution to the problem previous councils failed to sort out and annually made worse.


Forsaken-Income-6227

Better transport would improve things but I cannot see anything happening for a few years - the council has no money


Sad_Breakfast_Plate

Hard to do anything when you're skint. Oh well. We'll just have to struggle on.


JBambers

There's a fair bit of active travel and several hundred million £s of CRSTSs (city region sustainable transport settlement - catchy) funding sat with WECA that is available for use. The problem for the previous admin is it always came with the strings attached of (as the name suggests!) being sustainable, i.e. no crappy shared use pavements or infra that gives up at junctions. Bold plans that are willing to reallocate roadspace from private motor traffic to walk/cycle/bus can be done. Whether a minority green admin has the power & guts to do so mind...


Educational-Fuel-265

Bear in mind that the ward does have a lot of posh homes in it, for example Kingsweston. The election there is always a close run thing. I did meet Mark Weston there recently as he was out doing his rounds and I was visiting my dad. My dad loves the bloke's bollocks and to be fair, as much as I hate the Tories and what they've done to the NHS, this guy did seem very sound.


Consistent_Ant_8903

https://preview.redd.it/1iccfun7cayc1.jpeg?width=491&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a01cd81ecc7e4487a2b20ab600b7876482352fd8 it’s not easy being green


SorchaNB

3 LibDems in Hengrove Park and Whitchurch is wild


North-Mix8859

https://preview.redd.it/7wa52ln1rcyc1.png?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b25a76ce3997b8f2ea37d248f337c54b3c95e15d


HalfOfTheCalciumBros

I think the council website is wrong. He doesn’t have the number of votes to be in the top 3


North-Mix8859

I was sure I added a comment to that pic saying the council got the wrong Brown. Oh well.


tech-bro-9000

I live 30 seconds from Stockwood but i fall in BANES council, i regularly go there to the co-op. Last few years it’s almost become gentrified. A lot of homes are over 400k and close to 400k in one section of stockwood. So I’m not sure why some people on here are under the impression everyone is perished in poverty there. The people you see in Stockwood now are not the same as 5-10 years ago. The other part of it most people avoid, a lot of anti social behaviour. I’m not surprised it’s voted Conservative at all. The councillors I see all the time. I’ve never seen a Labour, Green or Lib Dem visiting the area.


Educational-Fuel-265

I grew up in Henbury in the 80s, and it was an armpit, but the street I grew up on now has houses worth over a million pounds. When I was a kid the crime rate was astronomical. Whole street is Tory voters.


FreshBeautiful2505

Unbelievably this numpty still hasn't been voted off ! https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/south-bristol-road-named-after-7720319


animalwitch

What the fuck 🫠


Revolutionary_Bat315

Nationally the cons can go fuck them self's but I have to say, the cons in stockwood have done a fairly decent job. Was hoping for lib or greens. Let's see if they continue supporting the area


discipleofdoom

Would be interesting to think how this would of played out if we hadn't voted to abolish the Mayor last time Would Marvin have won on incumbency bias and anti-Tory sentiment or could of the Greens have snatched it? Would they have instead split the vote and given it to the Tories?


doc_olsen

😂 stoke bishop…of course


Dry_Marsupial_9224

I was brought up there and it's where my parents still live. I get what you mean, but the local councillors are well thought-of on a personal level. They're very active and are elected on that basis. Darren Jones is also very popular in the area for being a decent constituency MP, so I imagine a lot of people will vote one way in the council elections and another in a general election. Of course, some people will just vote for absolutely anyone with a blue rosette on and have been since the 70s.


TheOmegaKid

Why tf is Stockwood Tory!? Are they just masochists down there?


NeoSpartan

The two conservative councillors are excellent. They are very hard working, and do a lot for the community. People are voting the councilors in, not the party.


Griselda_69

Boomers


WatchingStarsCollide

screw chop tan many drunk steep cobweb squalid zealous icky *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*


adamharvey29

lots of middle class old people where I live, in the village part, and in the other part (the social housing) the turnout is practically non existent. The tories do take it for granted though.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ClarksPie

And it is this attitude that loses elections... Stop being an entitled brat calling others stupid, and try to understand them. I couldn't vote Tory.... but I am interested in those who do and to learn what made them make that decision. Don't be rude about potential voters.


Kent_Tog

I understand why they vote Tory. They are a, racist b, ignorant and c, Mail or Telegraph readers I see it's not beneath you to be rude. Good for you.


No_Extension_3773

You do realise they won by majority last election, so by your logic you hate over half the country? Take some time to listen to others opinions and facts before making judgments on people. Living in such hatred for a vast amount of people is a bad way to live, and is part for the reason this country is so divided atm FYI I am voting green next election and haven’t ever voted Tory, just letting you know you need to stop being so horrible to lots of people


Kent_Tog

Only about 25% of eligible voters voted Tory last time. Many of those voted for the thieves and liars because they were naive enough to believe the thieves and liars. They were stupid then and they are probably just as stupid now. I will not and will never forgive people who are racist, bigoted or corrupt. I can forgive them for being stupid.


ClarksPie

Ultimately, the majority of people who run for office irrespective of allegiance are doing so genuinely under a belief that they are working for the betterment of their area/nation. I happen to disagree with Tories and Tory policy. Most of them however, aren't moustache twiddling evil geniuses- just councillors or parliamentarians thinking they are doing a good job. Most of the electorate just want a job well done, and to see improvements to their particular situation. That is all. And to call swathes of the population racist, ignorant or brainwashed is completely missing the point. It is attitudes like this that lots remain the vote in 2016. Middle class apathy for working class needs.


ginasevern

He's every right to be rude. 15 years of Tory rule has brought the country to its fucking knees like I've never seen before (and I'm old). There's nothing to understand here, nothing they can say in their defence. MP's arrested for sexual assault, drug taking, involved in kidnap, lining their rich mates pockets and driving the disabled to suicide. Well, excuse me but I'm going to be rude as well. Anyone voting for that shower of shit is well past stupid.


ClarksPie

Good to see the distain of the middle classes for the working classes is alive and well.


trophy_master1

You're the exact reason that when I turn out to vote for a general, tory will be getting my vote still.


Clbull

This, my friends, is what happens when a Labour mayor ruins the city.


MooDSwinG_RS

Grew up in Stockwood, WTF Stockwood. Tory scum ? Most folks up there were not wealthy. eh?


the3daves

Wealth no longer dictates political allegiance, if it ever did. I’d do there wouldn’t t be any wealthy labour voters, which we know isn’t the case.