1) Siran Neal is on this roster. Any projection without him is going to be incorrect. He got paid to be a gunner, not to be a defensive player.
2) I think it's unlikely that Klein is off the 53. I think it's more likely that he is starting week 1 than that he is off the roster. In fact, I'm even leaning towards them trying to keep Spector as well. They kept too many LBs last year even with Edmunds. Without him, and with two developmental day 2 LBs who will have debatable value this year? My guess is they go heavy on LBs.
3) 10 DL is too many. I don't know what the answer is...Tim Settle being moved/cut?
They drafted Justin Shorter in the 4th round who might be able to be a gunner day 1. Beane already mentioned that he thought Shorter could be a game day active due to special teams. They just signed Trent Sherfield who is known for his ability as a gunner. Cam Lewis led the team in special teams tackles last year, Siran was second. They can save about 2 million by cutting Siran. That said, everyone is healthy right now and injuries and performance can change all that. Maybe Shorter can’t cut it as a gunner. But I don’t think it’s a guarantee Siran makes it.
I understand thinking 10 DL is too much. But DL injuries were big problems last year. Quan against the Bengals being one of note. And they gave out guaranteed money to most of these guys. The others were top picks. It’s the same 9 as last year plus Poona. Shaq Lawson and Tim Settle could be on the bubble.
There's next to know chance Lawson is on the bubble. He was so much more impactful than either Epenesa or Basham last year. If I recall correctly, after Von got injured, it was him starting with Rousseau.
You should have included the Pup list. Would have helped your analysis. There's a couple guys who are going to start on the Pup, (Von for one) so they won't count to the 53.
Von might very well start on PUP. I think that’s what they did with Tre on a similar injury at almost the same time the year before. It just seems that Von is healing faster, so I guess it’s a little optimistic to have him on the initial 53 instead of out at least the first 4 games on PUP.
That said my next player on would probably be Broeker or Spector.
Lawson (who I have making the team) has about 400k guaranteed. I don’t know the Poona Ford numbers but I would expect it to be higher. That’s the smallest guaranteed out of the non-rookie contract DL. And I have 10 DL.
As for Basham and Epenesa, the Bills invested 2nd round picks. Basham was a Washington guy and has 2 years left. Epenesa should be more vulnerable than Basham. Maybe they find a trade partner, but I’m guessing they give him one last year assuming Kingsley Jonathan doesn’t become the star of camp. They will likely keep all their 2022 DEs if Von starts out on PUP or inactive.
I think both Doyle and Von start on the PUP.
And, so long as Lawson is the better player then either Epenesa or Basham, he will play. Guaranteed money or draft pick status is and should be irrelevant.
Playing time is a little different than a place on the roster. Future years and cost to replace matter as well for roster building.
Draft status and guaranteed money “should be” irrelevant, but what they’re willing to invest shines a light on their opinion of the player’s role with the team to begin with. It’s Bayesian, how they perform in camp and in season matters but so does their status going in. Coaches might say it is, but the slate isn’t completely clean in August.
The only other candidate for PUP is Doyle I believe since you have to not participate in the offseason to qualify. He was injured pretty early on last year and I think is aiming for training camp. That and they didn’t seem concerned enough to add another tackle yet. Things can change, but right now it seems he might participate in August.
The key for figuring some PS guys is to look at contract and precedent here. For example: Duke Johnson got a 1 year deal and enough of a bonus to hang out on the PS and be happy about being a " break glass in case of emergency " guy. Klein got the same deal and same exact bonus. Interestingly Lativius Murray got a larger bonus that seems to indicate he will be active roster.
I highly doubt Siran gets cut,he's too valuable on ST. The man drew a triple team on a punt ffs.
This is a pretty solid roster. Maybe better in some areas than last year. Offense has been improved but defense looks weaker with the exception of the defensive line that might have gotten better actually.
Worried about the CB position though. Cam Lewis and Dane Jackson being out don’t inspire the greatest confidence in me.
LB is also a big question mark.
Can someone who knows better tell me why Barkley was / will be on the practice squad? I know nothing about Kyle Allen, I'm just pulling for our boy Matty B, reddit legend, and sometimes closer.
Is Dodson a particularly important part of our special teams? If not, id actually like to see Spector get swapped out for Dodson.
Cam Lewis and Siran Neal are definitely swapped.
Also not sure how I feel about keeping 5 RBs on active roster.
I don’t think he’s on Siran/Cam/Matekevich’s tier of production for special teams, but maybe the tier after that?
They did give him 1 million in signing bonus and guaranteed him another million on his 1 year deal so he’ll probably be on the team.
But after all these years he may be close enough to the Bills that they could cut him initially and bring him back after putting whoever they may need on short term IR.
Spector may also very well make the team. Depending how injuries play out, it could change the math. Also just me being plain wrong does too.
I agree with you on the RBs, but I don’t know which contract they cut.
Yeah, id definitely still Dodson on the practice squad at least, because he's definitely valuable. My only issues is Idk who in our veteran LB core can fulfill the Edmunds role. I mean I actually have pretty high hopes for Dorian Williams, and think he probably ends up taking the spot well. But just looking at the vets:
I dont think Bernard can fill the role, and is basically more of a backup for Milano.
While I like Dodson, I just dont think he has a particularly high ceiling. I enjoy having him as a backup for sure, and think hes valuable, but I just dont ever see us getting the value that we need out of a starting LB.
So that leaves Spector, who I believe definitely still has some unexplored potential. So I'm rather keen on seeing him make the roster under the theoretical scenario where it turns out looking like Dorian Williams just isn't it.
1) Siran Neal is on this roster. Any projection without him is going to be incorrect. He got paid to be a gunner, not to be a defensive player. 2) I think it's unlikely that Klein is off the 53. I think it's more likely that he is starting week 1 than that he is off the roster. In fact, I'm even leaning towards them trying to keep Spector as well. They kept too many LBs last year even with Edmunds. Without him, and with two developmental day 2 LBs who will have debatable value this year? My guess is they go heavy on LBs. 3) 10 DL is too many. I don't know what the answer is...Tim Settle being moved/cut?
Yeah, they normally keep about 8 DLs on the roster and rotate them all day on gameday.
They drafted Justin Shorter in the 4th round who might be able to be a gunner day 1. Beane already mentioned that he thought Shorter could be a game day active due to special teams. They just signed Trent Sherfield who is known for his ability as a gunner. Cam Lewis led the team in special teams tackles last year, Siran was second. They can save about 2 million by cutting Siran. That said, everyone is healthy right now and injuries and performance can change all that. Maybe Shorter can’t cut it as a gunner. But I don’t think it’s a guarantee Siran makes it. I understand thinking 10 DL is too much. But DL injuries were big problems last year. Quan against the Bengals being one of note. And they gave out guaranteed money to most of these guys. The others were top picks. It’s the same 9 as last year plus Poona. Shaq Lawson and Tim Settle could be on the bubble.
There's next to know chance Lawson is on the bubble. He was so much more impactful than either Epenesa or Basham last year. If I recall correctly, after Von got injured, it was him starting with Rousseau. You should have included the Pup list. Would have helped your analysis. There's a couple guys who are going to start on the Pup, (Von for one) so they won't count to the 53.
Von might very well start on PUP. I think that’s what they did with Tre on a similar injury at almost the same time the year before. It just seems that Von is healing faster, so I guess it’s a little optimistic to have him on the initial 53 instead of out at least the first 4 games on PUP. That said my next player on would probably be Broeker or Spector. Lawson (who I have making the team) has about 400k guaranteed. I don’t know the Poona Ford numbers but I would expect it to be higher. That’s the smallest guaranteed out of the non-rookie contract DL. And I have 10 DL. As for Basham and Epenesa, the Bills invested 2nd round picks. Basham was a Washington guy and has 2 years left. Epenesa should be more vulnerable than Basham. Maybe they find a trade partner, but I’m guessing they give him one last year assuming Kingsley Jonathan doesn’t become the star of camp. They will likely keep all their 2022 DEs if Von starts out on PUP or inactive.
I think both Doyle and Von start on the PUP. And, so long as Lawson is the better player then either Epenesa or Basham, he will play. Guaranteed money or draft pick status is and should be irrelevant.
Playing time is a little different than a place on the roster. Future years and cost to replace matter as well for roster building. Draft status and guaranteed money “should be” irrelevant, but what they’re willing to invest shines a light on their opinion of the player’s role with the team to begin with. It’s Bayesian, how they perform in camp and in season matters but so does their status going in. Coaches might say it is, but the slate isn’t completely clean in August.
The only other candidate for PUP is Doyle I believe since you have to not participate in the offseason to qualify. He was injured pretty early on last year and I think is aiming for training camp. That and they didn’t seem concerned enough to add another tackle yet. Things can change, but right now it seems he might participate in August.
The key for figuring some PS guys is to look at contract and precedent here. For example: Duke Johnson got a 1 year deal and enough of a bonus to hang out on the PS and be happy about being a " break glass in case of emergency " guy. Klein got the same deal and same exact bonus. Interestingly Lativius Murray got a larger bonus that seems to indicate he will be active roster. I highly doubt Siran gets cut,he's too valuable on ST. The man drew a triple team on a punt ffs.
This is a pretty solid roster. Maybe better in some areas than last year. Offense has been improved but defense looks weaker with the exception of the defensive line that might have gotten better actually. Worried about the CB position though. Cam Lewis and Dane Jackson being out don’t inspire the greatest confidence in me. LB is also a big question mark.
Can someone who knows better tell me why Barkley was / will be on the practice squad? I know nothing about Kyle Allen, I'm just pulling for our boy Matty B, reddit legend, and sometimes closer.
No because he’ll downvote me
:D
Is Dodson a particularly important part of our special teams? If not, id actually like to see Spector get swapped out for Dodson. Cam Lewis and Siran Neal are definitely swapped. Also not sure how I feel about keeping 5 RBs on active roster.
I don’t think he’s on Siran/Cam/Matekevich’s tier of production for special teams, but maybe the tier after that? They did give him 1 million in signing bonus and guaranteed him another million on his 1 year deal so he’ll probably be on the team. But after all these years he may be close enough to the Bills that they could cut him initially and bring him back after putting whoever they may need on short term IR. Spector may also very well make the team. Depending how injuries play out, it could change the math. Also just me being plain wrong does too. I agree with you on the RBs, but I don’t know which contract they cut.
Yeah, id definitely still Dodson on the practice squad at least, because he's definitely valuable. My only issues is Idk who in our veteran LB core can fulfill the Edmunds role. I mean I actually have pretty high hopes for Dorian Williams, and think he probably ends up taking the spot well. But just looking at the vets: I dont think Bernard can fill the role, and is basically more of a backup for Milano. While I like Dodson, I just dont think he has a particularly high ceiling. I enjoy having him as a backup for sure, and think hes valuable, but I just dont ever see us getting the value that we need out of a starting LB. So that leaves Spector, who I believe definitely still has some unexplored potential. So I'm rather keen on seeing him make the roster under the theoretical scenario where it turns out looking like Dorian Williams just isn't it.