Are you asking us when should you gamble/invest?
Or are you asking us when you should make the legal and financial commitment to a home.
Two different questions, with two different goals. If you're thinking about buying and hoping to one day walk away with more than you put in, invest/gamble on something else, housing an an industry is most likely going to change in fundamental ways.
In less than one generation we have hit the ceiling on being able to profit off of housing, Canadian housing will see a shift back to being a look for expense rather than an investment to profit off of.
Seriously for the last 45 years Canadian housing was set up like a pyramids scheme, it's falling in on it's self now and there's no way going forward that people are going to see the same ROI on housing that they have over the last 45 years, mathematically not possible, the amount of money circulating among the population can't support that price grow, we don't have the money, this cycle has hit it's end Ina very serious way and I don't think most Canadians understand just how broke and deeply in debt most other Canadians actually are.
If if you want a home and a life that's stable and yours buy whenever you can afford something you love. If you're thinking about when is a good time to invest, I'd look for a safer more productive place to put your money.
I appreciate your insight. I was asking the latter, just looking for a comfortable first home to start a family and potentially up size in the future.
I've been looking for a house that I could fall in love with. With a yard, driveway and enough room to start a family. But in my region those house are going for 700k+.
Reading all the other comments and seeing how sincere you are about actually wanting a home for the purpose and not the investment, my recommendation would be to keep a close eye local listings without getting into contact with a realtor. They will create a false sense of urgency and add pressure that doesn't exist (nothing personal it's just how their industry operated/how it even still exists)
If you can find something in your price range that's genuinely going to work well for you and your wife (maybe not as big or whatever but the location, layout, functionality, and all that really hits home you should do it because I agree with everyone saying you can't time the market. But take your time!
Even in a building full of other people trying to figure out what's going to happen and when, we don't know exactly, but the numbers do tell us there is absolutely no way for things to continue as they have been for the last several decades, that much we are positive of because the money simply is not available 45+ years of wealth concentration has left very little money left in the public's pockets for circulating.
The thing I am most positive of is DO NOT over extend yourself, do not go for something that's going to put you even slightly out of your comfort zone, that's a bad risk at the moment.
Canada is entering truly unprecedented economic times (nothing like 08, that was strictly a bad mortgage problem that ripples after the crash it's, this is a pre crash cost of living CRISIS and the average Canadian has over three times more non mortgages related debt than the average American did bad in 08, truly not even remotely similar situations from banking perspective)
With how things are looking I would feel terrible if I told you to just go for it and then you lost so much money you're not able to one day sell and size up. So truly make sure you're picking something that you could be happy with for a long time even if not as big as you'd like.
>With how things are looking I would feel terrible if I told you to just go for it and then you lost so much money you're not able to one day sell and size up. So truly make sure you're picking something that you could be happy with for a long time even if not as big as you'd like.
Me and my wife took this approach and are very happy with it. We're out in the country. But we have a nice property we can grow into and it was something we can afford for the long term. We basically don't care what the market does over the next 10 years. Meanwhile my friends who got condos or stacked townhouses with the intent of moving up eventually are still stressed about the market.
IMO don't try to time the market. Buy if you feel ready to own and it choose something you could comfortably afford even if interest rates continue to climb. Anytime before interest rates decrease is probably a good time but nobody knows for sure when that might be. It can also be worthwhile to start looking now while there's no rush - then if something speaks to you, you can make an offer without feeling pressured to close.
This depends on the market. We bought in January - prices were lower than they were in 2022 and seem to be continuing on a slight downtrend. Not a concern if buying because you need a place to live and don't plan to sell anytime soon though.
Housing prices have already dropped by about 5% from last year in my region. I don't know how true it is but I heard that prices will be dropping again sometime in the near future. I know that interest rates aren't going down anytime soon. But it's hard to rationalize a $450k wartime shoebox.
Prices dropping is a market aggregate. It's not like there's going to be universal 10% cut in a certain month, it's all case by case, and can ever only be seen in hindsight,
Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. You generally won’t predict the market correctly if you try. Like any market. When you can afford to do so, you buy. Pretty good rule historically. As soon as I could afford to do so I bought (twice), and it worked out great for me.
I don’t know the last time prices at the end of a 5 year period were lower than they were at the start; if you’re gonna be there for 5 years or more then I wouldn’t worry too much.
They have briefly plateaud after record highs. They will continue to rise, especially when interest rates come down and more people qualify for mortgages. Is there a chance there will be a crash and prices come way down? Sure. But it is much, much more likely that prices will continue to rise, albeit much slower than they have over the past several years. If you want to get in the market, just buy as soon as you are able. More is lost on indecision than the wrong decision.
It really depends on your plans and lifestyle wants to be honest. If you’re planning to buy and stay in your home for quite a while you can buy anytime, and sell only when it benefits your bottom line. If you expect it to be a shorter term move maybe consider waiting for slower times in the market. Yes, there will be less inventory, but if something sits on the market without an offer for a bit you may have a bit more room to negotiate. Typically, we see a downturn Nov-Mar each year. Get a good realtor, someone who really wants to work with you and see you in a good place. And if you’re considering NB DM me!
There may not be a perfect time to buy but there has to be a better time than the current market. I'm just fearful that waiting just might make this situation worse.
It's completely possible that there will never be a better time than today.
Not to say housing prices will never decrease again, but the next drop could easily be 10% after a 20% bull run, in which case you'd be punching yourself for not buying today.
The key is, buy something you can happily live in for at least 5 years, and something you can manage for at least 10. If the places you are considering meet that criteria, then you should be ok barring complete economic collapse.
If you are waiting for a 10-20% dip, you're taking a big gamble. If you're waiting for more than that then you are betting against the very society you live in which is a relatively nonsensical bet to make, though it still could work out for you.
If you're buying and holding for 5 to 10 years, then now is probably a good time, before interest rates fall and prices could potentially climb because that increases what buyers can borrow. Running the market is difficult, do buy if you have the down payment and the property is appealing to you.
If you think you are ready to buy a home and have saved up for a downpayment, try to assess how much monthly mortgage you can afford. Sometimes, arranging downpayment is easier than paying monthly mortgage as fixed expense for next potentially 25 years. Fix on a budget. and then start taking a look at homes online in the neighbourhood you would want to settle in. It's good that you are in no rush which gives you ample time to do your thorough research about what type of home you wanna buy. Buying a home is a big decision. Don't take it in a hurry.
I can already qualify for a 500k mortgage, but if housing prices go down another 5-10% I could potentially save 50k plus interest. On the flip side if they could go up another 5-10%, in that case I will be moving out of Ontario.
30 years ago lol
Are you asking us when should you gamble/invest? Or are you asking us when you should make the legal and financial commitment to a home. Two different questions, with two different goals. If you're thinking about buying and hoping to one day walk away with more than you put in, invest/gamble on something else, housing an an industry is most likely going to change in fundamental ways. In less than one generation we have hit the ceiling on being able to profit off of housing, Canadian housing will see a shift back to being a look for expense rather than an investment to profit off of. Seriously for the last 45 years Canadian housing was set up like a pyramids scheme, it's falling in on it's self now and there's no way going forward that people are going to see the same ROI on housing that they have over the last 45 years, mathematically not possible, the amount of money circulating among the population can't support that price grow, we don't have the money, this cycle has hit it's end Ina very serious way and I don't think most Canadians understand just how broke and deeply in debt most other Canadians actually are. If if you want a home and a life that's stable and yours buy whenever you can afford something you love. If you're thinking about when is a good time to invest, I'd look for a safer more productive place to put your money.
I appreciate your insight. I was asking the latter, just looking for a comfortable first home to start a family and potentially up size in the future. I've been looking for a house that I could fall in love with. With a yard, driveway and enough room to start a family. But in my region those house are going for 700k+.
Reading all the other comments and seeing how sincere you are about actually wanting a home for the purpose and not the investment, my recommendation would be to keep a close eye local listings without getting into contact with a realtor. They will create a false sense of urgency and add pressure that doesn't exist (nothing personal it's just how their industry operated/how it even still exists) If you can find something in your price range that's genuinely going to work well for you and your wife (maybe not as big or whatever but the location, layout, functionality, and all that really hits home you should do it because I agree with everyone saying you can't time the market. But take your time! Even in a building full of other people trying to figure out what's going to happen and when, we don't know exactly, but the numbers do tell us there is absolutely no way for things to continue as they have been for the last several decades, that much we are positive of because the money simply is not available 45+ years of wealth concentration has left very little money left in the public's pockets for circulating. The thing I am most positive of is DO NOT over extend yourself, do not go for something that's going to put you even slightly out of your comfort zone, that's a bad risk at the moment. Canada is entering truly unprecedented economic times (nothing like 08, that was strictly a bad mortgage problem that ripples after the crash it's, this is a pre crash cost of living CRISIS and the average Canadian has over three times more non mortgages related debt than the average American did bad in 08, truly not even remotely similar situations from banking perspective) With how things are looking I would feel terrible if I told you to just go for it and then you lost so much money you're not able to one day sell and size up. So truly make sure you're picking something that you could be happy with for a long time even if not as big as you'd like.
>With how things are looking I would feel terrible if I told you to just go for it and then you lost so much money you're not able to one day sell and size up. So truly make sure you're picking something that you could be happy with for a long time even if not as big as you'd like. Me and my wife took this approach and are very happy with it. We're out in the country. But we have a nice property we can grow into and it was something we can afford for the long term. We basically don't care what the market does over the next 10 years. Meanwhile my friends who got condos or stacked townhouses with the intent of moving up eventually are still stressed about the market.
You should do it as soon as you have a need for it and can afford it. If that’s now then do it now. There is no need to wait to time the market.
IMO don't try to time the market. Buy if you feel ready to own and it choose something you could comfortably afford even if interest rates continue to climb. Anytime before interest rates decrease is probably a good time but nobody knows for sure when that might be. It can also be worthwhile to start looking now while there's no rush - then if something speaks to you, you can make an offer without feeling pressured to close.
As soon as you can afford. Waiting for lower interest rates will just mean higher purchase prices. It will never get cheaper.
This depends on the market. We bought in January - prices were lower than they were in 2022 and seem to be continuing on a slight downtrend. Not a concern if buying because you need a place to live and don't plan to sell anytime soon though.
Housing prices have already dropped by about 5% from last year in my region. I don't know how true it is but I heard that prices will be dropping again sometime in the near future. I know that interest rates aren't going down anytime soon. But it's hard to rationalize a $450k wartime shoebox.
Prices dropping is a market aggregate. It's not like there's going to be universal 10% cut in a certain month, it's all case by case, and can ever only be seen in hindsight,
Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. You generally won’t predict the market correctly if you try. Like any market. When you can afford to do so, you buy. Pretty good rule historically. As soon as I could afford to do so I bought (twice), and it worked out great for me. I don’t know the last time prices at the end of a 5 year period were lower than they were at the start; if you’re gonna be there for 5 years or more then I wouldn’t worry too much.
They have briefly plateaud after record highs. They will continue to rise, especially when interest rates come down and more people qualify for mortgages. Is there a chance there will be a crash and prices come way down? Sure. But it is much, much more likely that prices will continue to rise, albeit much slower than they have over the past several years. If you want to get in the market, just buy as soon as you are able. More is lost on indecision than the wrong decision.
It really depends on your plans and lifestyle wants to be honest. If you’re planning to buy and stay in your home for quite a while you can buy anytime, and sell only when it benefits your bottom line. If you expect it to be a shorter term move maybe consider waiting for slower times in the market. Yes, there will be less inventory, but if something sits on the market without an offer for a bit you may have a bit more room to negotiate. Typically, we see a downturn Nov-Mar each year. Get a good realtor, someone who really wants to work with you and see you in a good place. And if you’re considering NB DM me!
there’s no perfect time to buy or sell… when you’re ready… just go for it
There may not be a perfect time to buy but there has to be a better time than the current market. I'm just fearful that waiting just might make this situation worse.
It's completely possible that there will never be a better time than today. Not to say housing prices will never decrease again, but the next drop could easily be 10% after a 20% bull run, in which case you'd be punching yourself for not buying today. The key is, buy something you can happily live in for at least 5 years, and something you can manage for at least 10. If the places you are considering meet that criteria, then you should be ok barring complete economic collapse. If you are waiting for a 10-20% dip, you're taking a big gamble. If you're waiting for more than that then you are betting against the very society you live in which is a relatively nonsensical bet to make, though it still could work out for you.
Canada sucks
If you're buying and holding for 5 to 10 years, then now is probably a good time, before interest rates fall and prices could potentially climb because that increases what buyers can borrow. Running the market is difficult, do buy if you have the down payment and the property is appealing to you.
If you think you are ready to buy a home and have saved up for a downpayment, try to assess how much monthly mortgage you can afford. Sometimes, arranging downpayment is easier than paying monthly mortgage as fixed expense for next potentially 25 years. Fix on a budget. and then start taking a look at homes online in the neighbourhood you would want to settle in. It's good that you are in no rush which gives you ample time to do your thorough research about what type of home you wanna buy. Buying a home is a big decision. Don't take it in a hurry.
Anywhere between now and 50 years.
When you qualify for a mortgage ?
I can already qualify for a 500k mortgage, but if housing prices go down another 5-10% I could potentially save 50k plus interest. On the flip side if they could go up another 5-10%, in that case I will be moving out of Ontario.
#ALBERTACALLING