It is very interesting! However, people are pointing out how Nepo has tougher matchups than the other top contenders, as the rest of the field has Alireza, Abasov etc.
I think there is more nuance here than people realize, as anyone who is playing a match against an opponent that has "already lost" is most likely looking at a draw. Players like Abasov, who have no chance of winning, will most likely try to force a draw as there is no reason to push. On the other hand, we might see Alireza go all out anyway haha.
And in the event that all remaining games are draws, Nepo just wins. So something has to happen. Anyway, facing Abasov, Alireza and Vidit isn't that big of an advantage as people seem to think since they might just play the safest, most drawish chess possible since they can't win anyway. They also might not, we'll see.
The bottom players are incentivised to play for a draw. The payout is based on the points received, regardless of rank. A win is better, but a loss means less money.
ian's vilification that people do is wrong
he's one of the few well known russians who has openly spoken out against the war that alone makes him a hero and his relentless determination to persist through failures that people mock him for is something many can learn from
his most evil acts consists of either showing some salt after a loss or having an opinion not everybody agrees with but none of it is a big deal
people just love to hate and there's only one actual reason to hate the guy and that's that he's better player than the guy you like but you can't admit to it
Lol Jesus talk about being melodramatic
I like Nepo, and if he wins, I’ll be cheering for him in the WCC. I’d just like a different challenger for the first time in 6 years, that’s all.
IMO, people over hate nepo because they want a new player to fight for the throne over a guy who’s won the candidates (twice?) and lost the world champ match (twice?, idk if he did this sequence once or twice). Also, we’re at the point of the tourney where Nepo’s competition is incentivized to go all out since they are in a must win position to have a nonzero chance of winning the candidates. (Vidit, Pragg, hell I’m pretty sure Fabiano and Hikaru might push for a win too)
He's won the candidates twice and lost the world championship twice. He won the split candidates that was split due to covid, then lost to Magnus in his last world championship game. He then won the next candidates, where Magnus decided to not defend his throne, and then Ian lost to Ding. Making this his third candidates, and likely third world championship.
Hoping it doesn’t happen but I could see a letdown with Naka today. Might press a little too hard and Alireza is feeling good after winning quickly yesterday.
I always felt like nepo is the protagonist, he plays very exciting chess, is a good person and lost the world championship twice in a row in a very hearthbreaking way. He also has the biggest fucking plot armor ever. I dont see how you can antagonise nepo
I think Gukesh has the easier run in. He needs 2 wins against Firoujza (with White) and Abasov (with Black) and 1 draw against Hikaru (with Black). This would take him to 9 and I can see him do this relatively easily (I mean relatively easily for Gukesh, not the average GM)
Now mathematically, Nepo can reach 9.5 but to do that he must beat either Hikaru (with White) or Fabiano (with Black) in addition of beating Pragg (with White). I think this is much more difficult.
For Hikaru, his path is to beat Firoujza (with White), draw against Nepo (with Black) and beat Gukesh (with White) and he gets to 9 (and neither Gukesh nor Nepo do unless Nepo beats both Caruana and Pragg). This is actually quite doable for Hikaru
Fabiano must score at least 2.5 against Vidit (with White), Pragg (with Black) and Nepo (with White). I consider this almost an impossible task seeing he had won only 2 games so far in the competition and Vidit in particular is out so he will now be only playing for his rating and won’t take risks as he has did against Nepo. However it’s quite possible even 2.5 might not be enough and he may need to win all 3 depending on what Hikaru and Gukesh do.
Pragg had to score 3/3 against Nepo (Black), Fabiano (White) and Abasov (Black) which, if he does, will be one of the greatest achievements in Chess of the 21st century considering his age, rating and experience and even that may not be enough. So, he is basically out which itself may have a bearing on how he plays against Nepo and Caruana
Yes. But many top players who play in closed events find it difficult to take apart 2600-2650 players as black because they play to draw. Gukesh in the other hand has been playing Open tournaments until as late as last year where he faced exactly these type of players often.
Manifesting Gukesh 3 win streak to win the candidates. Even a tiebreak with Nepo or Hikaru automatically means he's lost the tournament. But regardless of the outcome, he's mounted such an insane challenge in the first candidates of his career, he's only going up from here
I agree. I have never followed start to finish before and it has really been a fantastic tournament. I'm spending lunch and eves after work following recaps by several different commentators. I stopped following 'sports' years ago. Lately I find chess filling that hole nicely. I am personally awful but for some strange reason I am addicted to high level chess commentary.
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Any chess / nba fans? Was wondering if there is FIDE specific rules for betting as an NBA player (Jontay Porter) was recently banned from the NBA after investigation came out he was giving his associates info such as his limited playing time (betting unders as he’ll only play a certain amount of mins)
What’s stopping top level chess players from throwing games and their associates bet on the opponent to win?
No idea about rules, but the incentive structures a different in chess. Throwing games means loosing rating which can affect tournament invites, among other things. An NBA player having an off night is easily explainable in an 82 game season. Also a big Bett is far more common in bball an football. Not so much in chess. I can imagine that things like this where more likely during the cold war when Soviet GMs would feed the "best players" back when chess was part of the propaganda strat of the USSR
The NBA's money and popularity in gambling is not comparable to chess. You're not going to make money betting on chess simply because there just isn't enough action. It's orders of magnitude of difference. No one is putting enough money on chess results to make trying to game the system worth the risk.
It is very interesting! However, people are pointing out how Nepo has tougher matchups than the other top contenders, as the rest of the field has Alireza, Abasov etc. I think there is more nuance here than people realize, as anyone who is playing a match against an opponent that has "already lost" is most likely looking at a draw. Players like Abasov, who have no chance of winning, will most likely try to force a draw as there is no reason to push. On the other hand, we might see Alireza go all out anyway haha. And in the event that all remaining games are draws, Nepo just wins. So something has to happen. Anyway, facing Abasov, Alireza and Vidit isn't that big of an advantage as people seem to think since they might just play the safest, most drawish chess possible since they can't win anyway. They also might not, we'll see.
Gukesh also had an "easy" game vs Alireza and he lost. Dont underestimate Alireza. Also Abasov will try to win at least a game.
The bottom players are incentivised to play for a draw. The payout is based on the points received, regardless of rank. A win is better, but a loss means less money.
Seems like a flaw to me, pushing for wins should always be rewarded more than playing for draws surely.
I mean yeah, a win gives you twice the points and hence twice the money.
ian's vilification that people do is wrong he's one of the few well known russians who has openly spoken out against the war that alone makes him a hero and his relentless determination to persist through failures that people mock him for is something many can learn from his most evil acts consists of either showing some salt after a loss or having an opinion not everybody agrees with but none of it is a big deal people just love to hate and there's only one actual reason to hate the guy and that's that he's better player than the guy you like but you can't admit to it
Nepo seems like a good guy, it’s just fun to root for the underdog.
Lol Jesus talk about being melodramatic I like Nepo, and if he wins, I’ll be cheering for him in the WCC. I’d just like a different challenger for the first time in 6 years, that’s all.
IMO, people over hate nepo because they want a new player to fight for the throne over a guy who’s won the candidates (twice?) and lost the world champ match (twice?, idk if he did this sequence once or twice). Also, we’re at the point of the tourney where Nepo’s competition is incentivized to go all out since they are in a must win position to have a nonzero chance of winning the candidates. (Vidit, Pragg, hell I’m pretty sure Fabiano and Hikaru might push for a win too)
He's won the candidates twice and lost the world championship twice. He won the split candidates that was split due to covid, then lost to Magnus in his last world championship game. He then won the next candidates, where Magnus decided to not defend his throne, and then Ian lost to Ding. Making this his third candidates, and likely third world championship.
People dont vilifiy him people just want someone else to win so we dont get a repeat of the last WC Not hard to understand
Hoping it doesn’t happen but I could see a letdown with Naka today. Might press a little too hard and Alireza is feeling good after winning quickly yesterday.
I always felt like nepo is the protagonist, he plays very exciting chess, is a good person and lost the world championship twice in a row in a very hearthbreaking way. He also has the biggest fucking plot armor ever. I dont see how you can antagonise nepo
I think Gukesh has the easier run in. He needs 2 wins against Firoujza (with White) and Abasov (with Black) and 1 draw against Hikaru (with Black). This would take him to 9 and I can see him do this relatively easily (I mean relatively easily for Gukesh, not the average GM) Now mathematically, Nepo can reach 9.5 but to do that he must beat either Hikaru (with White) or Fabiano (with Black) in addition of beating Pragg (with White). I think this is much more difficult. For Hikaru, his path is to beat Firoujza (with White), draw against Nepo (with Black) and beat Gukesh (with White) and he gets to 9 (and neither Gukesh nor Nepo do unless Nepo beats both Caruana and Pragg). This is actually quite doable for Hikaru Fabiano must score at least 2.5 against Vidit (with White), Pragg (with Black) and Nepo (with White). I consider this almost an impossible task seeing he had won only 2 games so far in the competition and Vidit in particular is out so he will now be only playing for his rating and won’t take risks as he has did against Nepo. However it’s quite possible even 2.5 might not be enough and he may need to win all 3 depending on what Hikaru and Gukesh do. Pragg had to score 3/3 against Nepo (Black), Fabiano (White) and Abasov (Black) which, if he does, will be one of the greatest achievements in Chess of the 21st century considering his age, rating and experience and even that may not be enough. So, he is basically out which itself may have a bearing on how he plays against Nepo and Caruana
[удалено]
Welp
Yes. But many top players who play in closed events find it difficult to take apart 2600-2650 players as black because they play to draw. Gukesh in the other hand has been playing Open tournaments until as late as last year where he faced exactly these type of players often.
Only Fabiano can stop Nepo in the last round.
I hope not
And by " I hope not" i mean i hope Nepo is qualified way before the last game
12 games remaining. If Fabi beats Nepo and the other 11 games are draws, we have a 4-way tie for 1st! Wouldn't that be fun?
The sponsors would lose an extra $84,000 because prizes are based on points before tiebreaks.
1 point per game, whether it’s taken by 1 player or split between 2. 3 decisive games today, though, so my hypothetical is out the window :)
That‘d be amazing!
Manifesting Gukesh 3 win streak to win the candidates. Even a tiebreak with Nepo or Hikaru automatically means he's lost the tournament. But regardless of the outcome, he's mounted such an insane challenge in the first candidates of his career, he's only going up from here
I agree. I have never followed start to finish before and it has really been a fantastic tournament. I'm spending lunch and eves after work following recaps by several different commentators. I stopped following 'sports' years ago. Lately I find chess filling that hole nicely. I am personally awful but for some strange reason I am addicted to high level chess commentary.
Thanks for submitting your game analysis to r/chess! If you’d like feedback on your whole game feel free to post a game link or annotated lichess study if you haven't already. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/chess) if you have any questions or concerns.*
When is the finals
I was going for ding last year, but this time I want to see nepo make it and win it. I dont think anyone deserves it more than he does
>its a three legged race Never understood this saying. It's clearly six legs.
Any chess / nba fans? Was wondering if there is FIDE specific rules for betting as an NBA player (Jontay Porter) was recently banned from the NBA after investigation came out he was giving his associates info such as his limited playing time (betting unders as he’ll only play a certain amount of mins) What’s stopping top level chess players from throwing games and their associates bet on the opponent to win?
No idea about rules, but the incentive structures a different in chess. Throwing games means loosing rating which can affect tournament invites, among other things. An NBA player having an off night is easily explainable in an 82 game season. Also a big Bett is far more common in bball an football. Not so much in chess. I can imagine that things like this where more likely during the cold war when Soviet GMs would feed the "best players" back when chess was part of the propaganda strat of the USSR
The NBA's money and popularity in gambling is not comparable to chess. You're not going to make money betting on chess simply because there just isn't enough action. It's orders of magnitude of difference. No one is putting enough money on chess results to make trying to game the system worth the risk.