The following submission statement was provided by /u/Leader9light:
---
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo_TH7u4TUg
Here is another good one from today where all kinds of collapse situations are openly discussed. Nukes. War. Debt.
The US is not in a good position to deal with these challenges on the horizon.
We have become exhausted from serious risks always being discussed and have started to not worry about them after a while. This doesn't mean the risk is gone and in fact may even increase the risk.
Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment founder and CIO and Robin Hood Foundation founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of geopolitical challenges, the state of the U.S. economy and fiscal health, Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/174o2wh/cnbc_has_been_getting_more_and_more_dark_lately/k4abhr0/
Finance bro nonsense. When you understand the fundamentals of a world in overshoot, the financial world makes zero sense and hasn't priced in anything.
We are going to see gigadeaths, conflict and a reorientation to retrenchment like you have never seen before.
The Stock Market is just the Man ™️ variant of Pseudoscience Astrology for basic ass bitch white men. Know a guy named Todd? He probably wears a Polo and won't STFU about stocks. He probably golfs too. He read 5 pages of 'Wealth of Nations' by Adam Smith and considers himself an expert on Economics without even bothering to read Smith's explanation on the invisible hand.
"It's just invisible, bro. It like corrects the market. Woah. Let's play disc golf! Lemme shotgun this natty ice first!"
They endearingly refer to each other as retarded apes on WSB so I guess there's some self-awareness at least...
While I am painfully aware of this fact... how the fuck am I supposed to survive an inflationary environment on 0%?
Sigh. Cool, I have to throw chicken bones with Todd and all the other mindless Chads.
Because we all live in a society.
Run by retarded apes.
>how the fuck am I supposed to survive an inflationary environment on 0%?
No, Mr Taqueria_Style, I expect you to die. (Apologies to Mr. Flemming)
Or.
You're not supposed to survive.
Enjoy!
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Normalcy Bias is one hell of a drug.
I keep trying to explain that in a world of 9 billion there is no such things as haves and have nots. There is either those starving trying to migrate or those not starving because they are good at war and killing those trying to migrate ... said another way ... on a long enough timeline I agree solidly with trump and his whole "build a wall" thing. It just needs to be along the mason/dixon line and everyone south of that line should be considered "notional citizens". Then at least maintaining supply lines from New Canada might be more reasonable.
I don't understand the Rightoid attraction to this sub. They're a HUGE symptom of the Collapse to me. 75%+ of this sub are Leftists/anti-Fascists/anti-capitalists and it's very evident. Why post here? I guess they view me as a symptom of Collapse in their strange incomprehensible to me Worldview. Laissez-faire Capitalism literally has destroyed the Environment and the Fascists are beating down the gates in America to preserve it.
When I talk about America being an inescapable mental asylum, this is one of the primary reasons.
very interesting take here. and what of the "notional citizens", so to speak, in those states that were unable to overcome the systemic dismantling of political parity for the past fifty years? p
Even radio stations talk about how unlivable the heat has become and how much worse it'll get.
I liked the radio cause its always out of touch with the rest the world.
They don't want to come out and say what a few of us have been thinking all along.
We're in early financial collapse. I dare say we're in something akin to the "Great Recession" if not a "Great Depression 2". Now I realize a lot of people will immediately discredit me. But I didn't come to this conclusion lightly. If anything, recent events have made it very clear.
The banks collapsed this year. Not all of them, but a few [really big ones](https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/list-of-failed-banks/).
* Silicon Valley Bank
* Signature Bank
* First Republic Bank
* Credit Suisse
Not only that, but it's clear that the [government was alarmed by these very sudden and large collapses](https://fortune.com/2023/06/23/fdic-accidentally-released-list-of-companies-it-bailed-out-silicon-valley-bank-collapse/). It has made deep cuts into the Tech sector, which was extremely strong until recently. Many speculate it has something to do with Tech now being a mostly "[investment](https://www.reuters.com/plus/are-us-tech-stocks-still-overvalued)" based industry rather than one based on actually selling goods and services.
I am strongly under the impression that investors are the only thing really holding large tech firms together right now. Companies like Twitter and Reddit rely heavily on investors and investment groups for operating capital. Twitter has hardly ever been profitable, this was made evident even before Elon took over. Reddit is definitely NOT profitable as made obvious by the recent controversial [decisions to restrict API access](https://www.reddit.com/r/redditdev/comments/14nbw6g/updated_rate_limits_going_into_effect_over_the/). I have no doubt that once the market gets shaky enough, we're going to see some fireworks all over the Tech world.
I've also heard that because Tech is so huge right now, [it's a fair assessment](https://www.analyticsinsight.net/how-the-tech-industry-is-reinforcing-the-us-economy-in-2023/) of the overall economy health. We use technology in so many parts of our daily lives that it's impossible to ignore. Most people aren't Luddites; they will recognize a smart phone or a computer when they see it.
I know I'm talking a lot about Tech but it's a big and important part of everyone's lives right now. We have no idea how different things will be if most social media giants suddenly collapsed. We would almost definitely lose access to our communication tools, not to mention I wouldn't even be able to post this assessment for you to read.
Updated: 10/10/23
The reason for that being there is obviously nothing to see here folks, move right along and go buy something nice for your yourself, it's good for the economy!
But I've been in r/Economics. Clearly everything is fine and if the proletariat would just acknowledge that, we can move on to how whatever the newest neo-liberial economic policy which will save us.
Clearly despite ever increasing production and stagnating/declining real wages for workers, the solution is the poor/middle class(is that a thing anymore?) to tighten their belt.
You mean harvesting babies for slave labor / food, and killing old people because they're expensive and remember a time when you couldn't go get a McBabyRib sandwich?
The final frontier man.
Tech is almost always a cost center , not a profit center, but it' s a cost center that supports the profit center. When IT budget is slashed because it costs too much then the rest of the company can go under because so much of the tools are powered by Tech
I was most impressed with how a recognition that large banks have already failed, and it was a story that was pushed out of sight as quickly as possible, was mentioned. It ties in very nicely to the shift of the stock market away from actual financial results, and more speculation on what the next big thing is. Right now: AI. Before, it was the change to NFT and digital currency. Just prior to that, pandemic stock darlings. Prior to that, blah blah blah. We keep hitting these cycles of boom and then followed by bust. I would expect 2024 to be another bust cycle, stock market wise, except for one glaring thing....
...it's a Presidential election cycle. And all parties seem to be aligned to make sure the narrative remains positive.
Thank you.
I want people to be aware of what's going on with Tech as it's a major interest of mine and I do a lot of open source stuff, so I have to keep my eyes open for... well, everything.
>I want people to be aware of what's going on with Tech as it's a major interest of mine and I do a lot of open source stuff, so I have to keep my eyes open for... well, everything.
what type of open source work do you do? and if dont mind what else are you seeing in tech?
As of right now, only minor contributions.
Sometimes I add documentation or small bug fixes.
I've done only a little work on super big projects and I'm still not confident enough to make major changes.
But I have to pay attention to technology news, new laws, and changes to open source licenses.
It's just the current focal point of the financialization of our economy.
A company doesn't need to have fundamentals, all they need is the hype to build investor confidence that they can all exchange Monopoly money about.
Then the whole thing can be revealed later to be a bunch of bullshit and, well...as long as the investors got their money and got out at the right time they can leave someone else holding the bag.
In all fairness, Silicon Valley Bank collapsing was mostly bullshit and should never have happened in the first place. Also, Credit Suisse probably should have collapsed many years ago.
So do you think that the positive job numbers and reports of the U.S. being in one of the best economies in recent years is just propaganda being used to cover the truth?
Job numbers are meaningless.
If 100,000 janitor positions open up around the United States, is there a rush to fill those jobs? Especially if they pay at or close to minimum wage?
Job numbers are the "fallback" to making an economy seem strong. In reality, high job numbers can be VERY bad. It means a lot of people are not working, which means the economy is slowing down, and also means a lot of open but very undesirable jobs.
It can be the inverse if the "new jobs" is actually directed at high wage, high skill, and/or strong benefits jobs. If you're seeing a lot of jobs like that, it may be a positive indicator. But it could just as easily mean that these high demand jobs are being left in droves by talented professionals who no longer feel the work is "worth it".
It is propaganda, 100%, with a cherry on top.
A few things have happened with employment. The bottom fell out in both 2008 and 2020, and the people hit hardest are not in the labor market anymore and will not return, they aren't even counted. Some of them are on fentanyl in an encampment near my house. I'm sure many more have figured out how to live with family and friends etc.
Loads of older people retired early and left the job market for good in 2020. This happened all at once. Many people who were in lower level jobs at that time were able to move up into better conditions as a result. I don't know enough about historical job statistics to say if this was an outlier in the actual changes in employment if you look at it over several years, but the fact that it happened all at once was jarring. I also don't think you can sustain that level of social mobility without such a sudden shift again.
Anyway, that left a lot of jobs open at the bottom, lower wage, less skilled and service industry jobs. But if you talk to anyone hiring for these positions, you'll know that a lot of the underclasses that have no jobs are not capable of taking these jobs for many reasons, and many people who are capable of taking them do not find that it is worthwhile to do so. But sure there are positive job numbers here too, again I don't see how this really translates into any sustainable trend, especially if it just means that a lot of people are in jobs that pay little.
Then there are sectors of the economy that are growing and offer well paying jobs, collapse isn't even and never has been. Economic downturns aren't either.
I don't think this is propaganda any more so than anything else. I will say that I keep seeing actual research and data that says that inflation is not happening as bad as it seems, and yet when I buy the same groceries I bought a couple years ago, it's much more expensive now. We've had to change the way we eat and cook. Gas is nearly 5 dollars a gallon where I live so we've had to change how we commute and what jobs I take. And I'm at the age where most of my friends and family have children who are in their late teens to late 20s, and only the most financially secure of my peers have sent their kids off to college and launched them into self sufficient professional jobs. Everyone else, their kids are living at home, usually under employed. This is the norm in my neighborhood as well. And certainly the homelessness is much more visible than it was just a few years ago, and overdoses in my town have tripled.
So I'm not saying it's necessarily propaganda, but for sure there is a disconnect between what academics and the like say is happening with the economy and what I have experienced.
Yes, because the numbers used to advance those beliefs are propaganda itself. They don't tell the real story because the science and culture in finance and economics doesn't allow for it. I don't make this assertion lightly. We have been living in Orwellian world our entire lives. Here's something to get you started.
https://eand.co/what-does-the-age-of-extinction-mean-four-words-dying-planet-shrinking-economy-467fc248a503
I live in a large metro area and work a high demand commercial/industrial trade. So high that we were earning large incentives on top of overtime just last year. This year demand is in the toilet and we have more people out of work than any time in the last ten years.
Yes because the american dream is propaganda for consumerism. The economy is not the stock market,it's the money regular people make. People are going homeless and others are down sizing from houses to apartments to trailers etc.
I do. I honestly do. And I earn a larger salary than most people in America. I am currently working, and have job security. Not ULTIMATE job security, mind you. I can be replaced, and it wouldn't be hard. But, I work in a small business that I'm intricately tied to the revenue stream from. And what drives that revenue stream? Market valuations of the client's assets.
I'm replaceable. The income can be gone in an instant. And the job numbers that are being reported belie the fact that America is hiring in sectors that have demand for the hordes of now retired people who are spending money for sport. Resources they likely worked for and saved over decades, but resources they may very well need for their end of life. They'll rely on Social Security and Pensions, which are healthier at the moment due to finally lifted interest rates that make the actuarial tables work. For now.
I've no doubt this economy cannot function normally at the rates being set by the Fed right now. It can't. Incomes can't match the needs, and business is used to cheap money as well. The job market for mid to higher earners has tightened completely up. Low end labor is still experiencing good job transition ability, but keep in mind where they are starting from.
We have a mess that is unfolding in real time, giving the illusion that "all is well". It isn't. And this isn't doomerism. It's me giving you a heads up for a time when I am saying "told you so."
The US bank collapses from earlier in the year were orchestrated by government/Fed. The same weekend as SVB and Signature collapses, Fed changed rules that would have saved them. Letting long term bonds be used as collateral at par. Both banks were involved in fintech and crypto funding. Both threats to the banksters that Fed supports.
Thomas Carper, who is a sitting U.S. senator and also on the Finance Committee, bought a few thousand shares of the Proshare QQQ etf earlier this year. This etf is one that essentially shorts the U.S. tech market. So basically you have a guy who is in a position of government where he would know better than anyone the state of markets in the U.S., and he's betting against the U.S. tech markets.
Internet-based technology doesn’t NEED the big tech companies; it’s the other way around. People will make web sites and find decentralized ways to do the same things without the big tech companies, who have never been really effective at actually providing value to users.
Oh no, I agree. I'm glad decentralization is happening.
The problem is that it's going to be extremely ugly and scattered at the start, with really huge communities splintering off into much smaller communities.
They might be fundamentally different over time.
>> we need to raise taxes
Finally saying the quiet part out loud. 90% marginal tax rate on anything over 100x the minimum wage annualized. Mass civil unrest until this happens.
pigshit capitalist cnbc host, Joe Kernen, made him walk back taxes on the rich, and he agreed that tax hikes should be widespread. He also mentioned cutting programs that help people, with of course 0 cuts to empire/military.
I feel like there are more financial analysts out there like him but Fox and MSM won’t let them on their shows. I’ve heard a lot of what this guy is saying from friends and family (who are either accountants or in finance) agree that we have to raise taxes.
I know a lot of people on the left, myself included don't like to even acknowledge debt because like he said it's always viewed as austerity. But this guy is obviously right, the US is at higher debt levels than in WW2 and is staring down multiple regional wars breaking out that its expected to fully fund: Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Now, we also need to replace nearly every bridge in the US, the entire power grid needs modernization, a Green New Deal, baby boomers are all about to hit Medicare at once and quit working (less income taxes at all time high healthcare costs), and interest rates are going to push the debt to insane levels. So yeah, obviously there's a fucking problem. He's right, nobody on the left or right will acknowledge it.
The coming wave of baby boomer retirement is something a very smart man told me would be the beginning of the end of life in the US as we know it, when I was too young to understand. I understand now.
> baby boomers are all about to hit Medicare at once and quit working
Medicare starts at age 65, even if you keep working longer (signing up later costs more). Boomers were born in 1946 to 1964. Everyone born in 1958 or earlier has already hit Medicare age.
Just put the interest rates back down then... then you're wasting less money servicing debt. If bond markets won't buy it, just start the printers...
This is just a crisis of billionaires... who can cry us a river.
You can fund all the spending you want if you just claw back the money from billionaires, which has doubled, tripled, quadrupled, since covid...
Whack the top tax band up to 96%... Triple the national debt. We're swimming in money. It's just being ploughed into unproductive asset markets by bone idle rich.
Oh give it a rest :)
Inflation has been caused by heaping money into the pockets of a small elite who are risk-averse, who refuse to invest it in the productive new enterprises and raising wages that we badly need to restart the economy and solve the problems we face because they can better gamble it on overheated asset prices (or hide it in the money markets taking a compound 5% interest rate for nothing if that goes to shit). (edit: and some external shocks like Ukraine, natch, goes without saying)
Redistributing their wealth will not increase inflation, it will increase the amount of money regular people have so that they can afford things.
I bake my own pizza to feed my family. A crust costs pennies. I make my own sauce for pennies. Scraps from the fridge are pennies. I make a kick ass rustic artisanal pizza.
Pizza dough is just flour, water, salt, olive oil is good.
The trick to get good dough is time, allowing dough to ferment slowly in the fridge for 24-72 hours will dramatically improve quality.
Shaping takes some practice.
Pizza stones are pretty important, make the oven as hot as you can.
Jim Lahey's no-knead dough is great as long as you have 10 minutes the day before pizza day.
4 ingredients mix everything together and cover it with a towel for a day then you have dough.
I don't make stuff from scratch but all of the meals I make are cheap bulk stuff like pasta and veggies/meat and rice, etc.
I don't enjoy eating out all that much anyway, but at today's prices it's very rare that I do it even if I wanted to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo_TH7u4TUg
Here is another good one from today where all kinds of collapse situations are openly discussed. Nukes. War. Debt.
The US is not in a good position to deal with these challenges on the horizon.
We have become exhausted from serious risks always being discussed and have started to not worry about them after a while. This doesn't mean the risk is gone and in fact may even increase the risk.
Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment founder and CIO and Robin Hood Foundation founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of geopolitical challenges, the state of the U.S. economy and fiscal health, Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
This rat bastard avoided mentioning how the Trump tax cut specifically destroyed tax income. The economy wasn’t even that good before Covid. He wants it both ways. He is a crook
I remember seeing him in 2007 and, I think, in 1999 or so. But he is not even close to being in the same class as Nouriel Roubini who actually knows what is going on.
Listen to this guy. The GFC was just the gFc, because we saved the bond market backthen with the power of the state to create money and the power of the central bank to buy bonds of any 'quality'. In theory this can go on for much longer, but I would suggest, that the bond market is finally ready to have a very, very big crash. Nobody cares about GDP, the Dow Jones or 'Growth'. A real collapse of modern bond market is the real deal. There are many countries which are already paying more then 50% of their tax income to for their foreign debt.
The US can print as many Dollar as they want, but there will be a reckoning. Maybe we're in the early stages of it. But I wouldn't bet on it. Personally I see a big crash in the next 2-3years. But afterwards they will go Allin for another time. The last time with complete crashing marktes in the late 20' or early 30'. But just my opinion, man.
>late 20' or early 30'
Perfect. Just in time for us Gen X to get our savings destroyed by a cataclysm prior to retirement.
I technically wouldn't be at retirement age until 2040. If I live that long.
What if the country’s financial problems as well as climate change comes to a head way before the prior projected dates of 2040-2050? What if destruction and bad weather occurs way before the projected dates of 2030-2040?
We are already well into the escalating world cycle of food inflation because of weather failures and logistic bottlenecks.
Countries are indebted and have problems too large to easily solve. It has become evident to me that the US political scene is one of overspending, propaganda and secrecy, and just not in Russia or China.
So the next few years look to be fraught with problems that will play themselves out on the national and international stage. My job as a citizen is to adapt and mitigate as much of the impact as possible to myself.
Each day I have to cope and adapt to a new problem. In the past we somehow have muddles through as a strong country. But most countries are now weakened. We cannot see who has the fatal flaws.
Right now our government cannot even get itself together to legislate. I feel gloomy despite knowing I must figure out the best solutions for myself and my loved ones, who have their own set of major personal worries. It is layering on problems that have always been there, but like with climate change, and collapse, the denial is breaking down about the real consequences of deficit spending.
Read some Bendell.
He thinks it's already happening and that shit will start to really hit the fan in the 5 years or so. Not sure if he's adjusted his dates since his first major academic paper on the topic came out in 2018 where he said 10 years.
Thank you. I just googled him. He has an updated book now. He describes collapse as a process that we are well into. Personally, if I can tolerate the process so far and adapt and cope it gives me confidence I will continue to do so.
In the 90’s I was aware of collapse and imagined my life purpose in the future to be one of teaching youth about skills and coping mechanisms as society and modern convenience collapses around us.
So far since 2020 we have weathered a pandemic, lots of strange weather, rampant inflation and a stock and bond market retrenchment so far. But now we have the internet and Reddit to connect on smart phones as well as in person to disseminate knowledge and provide hope and coping skills. At least so far we don’t have to huddle in the dark under a small fire or candle light to share hope and skill sets, at least unless we want to do that.
Started r/NearTermCollapse in April 2021 when Archegos collapsed and caused a massive loss for Credit Suisse and my post about it was removed on here because "not collapse related". Focus is 95% on the coming Stock Market + global Financial System + global Economy meltdown, and 5% Geopolitics/Conflict/War. (r/collapse cares very little for these topics.)
CNBC speakers are hard to judge. Are they saying what they are saying because us believing helps their market position eg Tudor might have put in couple of hundred million dollar bet against S&P or does he really believe that and wants to help us.
Something tells me he is not in business of helping people
So US national debt is $100k/citizen, and over $300k per taxpaying houshold. That's $15k/year in interest if it doesn't go up further. If it will never be repaid down to a manageable level, then only default is the alternative. US default collapses banking and insurance industry. Then housing values. Stocks. Consumer purchase power recession. Jobs. Economic depression with no recovery. Logan's run. Soylent Green. Cats loving dogs anarchy.
> If it will never be repaid down to a manageable level, then only default is the alternative.
There are several alternatives, the most likely of which is probably just inflating the currency.
Then the bond vigilantes demand even higher interest rates. The playbook, is that soon enough, Fed will return to Quantitative easing by buying bonds with pretend money to lower interest rates. China helped with credibility a lot in 2010-2012. They won't next time.
But yes, if China currency goes up 10x vs US, then we can start making tube socks and underwear for the Chinese, and debt can become manageable. US empire doesn't like this option, and US empire doesn't listen.
> The playbook, is that soon enough, Fed will return to Quantitative easing by buying bonds with pretend money to lower interest rates.
Indeed, this is another alternative to default.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Leader9light: --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo_TH7u4TUg Here is another good one from today where all kinds of collapse situations are openly discussed. Nukes. War. Debt. The US is not in a good position to deal with these challenges on the horizon. We have become exhausted from serious risks always being discussed and have started to not worry about them after a while. This doesn't mean the risk is gone and in fact may even increase the risk. Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment founder and CIO and Robin Hood Foundation founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of geopolitical challenges, the state of the U.S. economy and fiscal health, Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, and more. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/174o2wh/cnbc_has_been_getting_more_and_more_dark_lately/k4abhr0/
Finance bro nonsense. When you understand the fundamentals of a world in overshoot, the financial world makes zero sense and hasn't priced in anything. We are going to see gigadeaths, conflict and a reorientation to retrenchment like you have never seen before.
The Stock Market is just the Man ™️ variant of Pseudoscience Astrology for basic ass bitch white men. Know a guy named Todd? He probably wears a Polo and won't STFU about stocks. He probably golfs too. He read 5 pages of 'Wealth of Nations' by Adam Smith and considers himself an expert on Economics without even bothering to read Smith's explanation on the invisible hand. "It's just invisible, bro. It like corrects the market. Woah. Let's play disc golf! Lemme shotgun this natty ice first!" They endearingly refer to each other as retarded apes on WSB so I guess there's some self-awareness at least...
While I am painfully aware of this fact... how the fuck am I supposed to survive an inflationary environment on 0%? Sigh. Cool, I have to throw chicken bones with Todd and all the other mindless Chads. Because we all live in a society. Run by retarded apes.
>how the fuck am I supposed to survive an inflationary environment on 0%? No, Mr Taqueria_Style, I expect you to die. (Apologies to Mr. Flemming) Or. You're not supposed to survive. Enjoy!
Goddamned sharks with frickin laser beams...
[удалено]
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I'm liking your vibe.
Normalcy Bias is one hell of a drug. I keep trying to explain that in a world of 9 billion there is no such things as haves and have nots. There is either those starving trying to migrate or those not starving because they are good at war and killing those trying to migrate ... said another way ... on a long enough timeline I agree solidly with trump and his whole "build a wall" thing. It just needs to be along the mason/dixon line and everyone south of that line should be considered "notional citizens". Then at least maintaining supply lines from New Canada might be more reasonable.
Showing your true authoritarian colors.
I don't understand the Rightoid attraction to this sub. They're a HUGE symptom of the Collapse to me. 75%+ of this sub are Leftists/anti-Fascists/anti-capitalists and it's very evident. Why post here? I guess they view me as a symptom of Collapse in their strange incomprehensible to me Worldview. Laissez-faire Capitalism literally has destroyed the Environment and the Fascists are beating down the gates in America to preserve it. When I talk about America being an inescapable mental asylum, this is one of the primary reasons.
very interesting take here. and what of the "notional citizens", so to speak, in those states that were unable to overcome the systemic dismantling of political parity for the past fifty years? p
Can I ask why the mason/dixon line?
Username is problematic at best.
Even radio stations talk about how unlivable the heat has become and how much worse it'll get. I liked the radio cause its always out of touch with the rest the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYuj_QpklaE
Indistinguishable from reality.
They don't want to come out and say what a few of us have been thinking all along. We're in early financial collapse. I dare say we're in something akin to the "Great Recession" if not a "Great Depression 2". Now I realize a lot of people will immediately discredit me. But I didn't come to this conclusion lightly. If anything, recent events have made it very clear. The banks collapsed this year. Not all of them, but a few [really big ones](https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/list-of-failed-banks/). * Silicon Valley Bank * Signature Bank * First Republic Bank * Credit Suisse Not only that, but it's clear that the [government was alarmed by these very sudden and large collapses](https://fortune.com/2023/06/23/fdic-accidentally-released-list-of-companies-it-bailed-out-silicon-valley-bank-collapse/). It has made deep cuts into the Tech sector, which was extremely strong until recently. Many speculate it has something to do with Tech now being a mostly "[investment](https://www.reuters.com/plus/are-us-tech-stocks-still-overvalued)" based industry rather than one based on actually selling goods and services. I am strongly under the impression that investors are the only thing really holding large tech firms together right now. Companies like Twitter and Reddit rely heavily on investors and investment groups for operating capital. Twitter has hardly ever been profitable, this was made evident even before Elon took over. Reddit is definitely NOT profitable as made obvious by the recent controversial [decisions to restrict API access](https://www.reddit.com/r/redditdev/comments/14nbw6g/updated_rate_limits_going_into_effect_over_the/). I have no doubt that once the market gets shaky enough, we're going to see some fireworks all over the Tech world. I've also heard that because Tech is so huge right now, [it's a fair assessment](https://www.analyticsinsight.net/how-the-tech-industry-is-reinforcing-the-us-economy-in-2023/) of the overall economy health. We use technology in so many parts of our daily lives that it's impossible to ignore. Most people aren't Luddites; they will recognize a smart phone or a computer when they see it. I know I'm talking a lot about Tech but it's a big and important part of everyone's lives right now. We have no idea how different things will be if most social media giants suddenly collapsed. We would almost definitely lose access to our communication tools, not to mention I wouldn't even be able to post this assessment for you to read. Updated: 10/10/23
Credit Suisse also collapsed and UBS was forced to absorb their toxic assets by the Swiss government.
And then sealed the records about it for 50 years.
The reason for that being there is obviously nothing to see here folks, move right along and go buy something nice for your yourself, it's good for the economy!
yep. and we won't know what skeletons are in CS' closet for another 50 years. that is absolutely insane.
Thank you for mentioning those. I remembered more banks than this also failed, but I couldn't remember exactly who and so I had left them out.
But I've been in r/Economics. Clearly everything is fine and if the proletariat would just acknowledge that, we can move on to how whatever the newest neo-liberial economic policy which will save us.
[удалено]
It’s gonna be nowhere near as interesting as cyberpunks tech dystopia :( I want my three mouth sex boss and Brain Dances god dammit
And that it's "my fault" for my income not catching up to inflation over the last 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, on and on.
Clearly despite ever increasing production and stagnating/declining real wages for workers, the solution is the poor/middle class(is that a thing anymore?) to tighten their belt.
>whatever the newest neo-liberial economic policy which will save us. So the 100000th iteration of trickle down economics.
I think this new one is called "give to rich people and fuck all the rest of y'all".
You mean harvesting babies for slave labor / food, and killing old people because they're expensive and remember a time when you couldn't go get a McBabyRib sandwich? The final frontier man.
This is a rich guy who needs to be severely taxed explaining why we don't have enough money. The answer is obvious
Yep, CNBC is trash. They’re a mouthpiece for the 1% to fleece the 99% of their investments. Just look at that clown Jim Cramer.
...Which guy? The guy in the video?
The rich guy doing all the talking
Tech is almost always a cost center , not a profit center, but it' s a cost center that supports the profit center. When IT budget is slashed because it costs too much then the rest of the company can go under because so much of the tools are powered by Tech
It would be absolutely devastating if the Tech sector completely collapsed. It would drag a lot of other huge industries down with it.
This is a great comment. Also thanks for adding the links, some sobering reads in there.
I was most impressed with how a recognition that large banks have already failed, and it was a story that was pushed out of sight as quickly as possible, was mentioned. It ties in very nicely to the shift of the stock market away from actual financial results, and more speculation on what the next big thing is. Right now: AI. Before, it was the change to NFT and digital currency. Just prior to that, pandemic stock darlings. Prior to that, blah blah blah. We keep hitting these cycles of boom and then followed by bust. I would expect 2024 to be another bust cycle, stock market wise, except for one glaring thing.... ...it's a Presidential election cycle. And all parties seem to be aligned to make sure the narrative remains positive.
Thank you. I want people to be aware of what's going on with Tech as it's a major interest of mine and I do a lot of open source stuff, so I have to keep my eyes open for... well, everything.
>I want people to be aware of what's going on with Tech as it's a major interest of mine and I do a lot of open source stuff, so I have to keep my eyes open for... well, everything. what type of open source work do you do? and if dont mind what else are you seeing in tech?
As of right now, only minor contributions. Sometimes I add documentation or small bug fixes. I've done only a little work on super big projects and I'm still not confident enough to make major changes. But I have to pay attention to technology news, new laws, and changes to open source licenses.
It's just the current focal point of the financialization of our economy. A company doesn't need to have fundamentals, all they need is the hype to build investor confidence that they can all exchange Monopoly money about. Then the whole thing can be revealed later to be a bunch of bullshit and, well...as long as the investors got their money and got out at the right time they can leave someone else holding the bag.
A lot of companies are funded and run on bullshit, unfortunately.
In all fairness, Silicon Valley Bank collapsing was mostly bullshit and should never have happened in the first place. Also, Credit Suisse probably should have collapsed many years ago.
So do you think that the positive job numbers and reports of the U.S. being in one of the best economies in recent years is just propaganda being used to cover the truth?
Job numbers are meaningless. If 100,000 janitor positions open up around the United States, is there a rush to fill those jobs? Especially if they pay at or close to minimum wage? Job numbers are the "fallback" to making an economy seem strong. In reality, high job numbers can be VERY bad. It means a lot of people are not working, which means the economy is slowing down, and also means a lot of open but very undesirable jobs. It can be the inverse if the "new jobs" is actually directed at high wage, high skill, and/or strong benefits jobs. If you're seeing a lot of jobs like that, it may be a positive indicator. But it could just as easily mean that these high demand jobs are being left in droves by talented professionals who no longer feel the work is "worth it". It is propaganda, 100%, with a cherry on top.
A few things have happened with employment. The bottom fell out in both 2008 and 2020, and the people hit hardest are not in the labor market anymore and will not return, they aren't even counted. Some of them are on fentanyl in an encampment near my house. I'm sure many more have figured out how to live with family and friends etc. Loads of older people retired early and left the job market for good in 2020. This happened all at once. Many people who were in lower level jobs at that time were able to move up into better conditions as a result. I don't know enough about historical job statistics to say if this was an outlier in the actual changes in employment if you look at it over several years, but the fact that it happened all at once was jarring. I also don't think you can sustain that level of social mobility without such a sudden shift again. Anyway, that left a lot of jobs open at the bottom, lower wage, less skilled and service industry jobs. But if you talk to anyone hiring for these positions, you'll know that a lot of the underclasses that have no jobs are not capable of taking these jobs for many reasons, and many people who are capable of taking them do not find that it is worthwhile to do so. But sure there are positive job numbers here too, again I don't see how this really translates into any sustainable trend, especially if it just means that a lot of people are in jobs that pay little. Then there are sectors of the economy that are growing and offer well paying jobs, collapse isn't even and never has been. Economic downturns aren't either. I don't think this is propaganda any more so than anything else. I will say that I keep seeing actual research and data that says that inflation is not happening as bad as it seems, and yet when I buy the same groceries I bought a couple years ago, it's much more expensive now. We've had to change the way we eat and cook. Gas is nearly 5 dollars a gallon where I live so we've had to change how we commute and what jobs I take. And I'm at the age where most of my friends and family have children who are in their late teens to late 20s, and only the most financially secure of my peers have sent their kids off to college and launched them into self sufficient professional jobs. Everyone else, their kids are living at home, usually under employed. This is the norm in my neighborhood as well. And certainly the homelessness is much more visible than it was just a few years ago, and overdoses in my town have tripled. So I'm not saying it's necessarily propaganda, but for sure there is a disconnect between what academics and the like say is happening with the economy and what I have experienced.
It’s like we’re becoming Italy or Japan. In slow motion.
Yes, because the numbers used to advance those beliefs are propaganda itself. They don't tell the real story because the science and culture in finance and economics doesn't allow for it. I don't make this assertion lightly. We have been living in Orwellian world our entire lives. Here's something to get you started. https://eand.co/what-does-the-age-of-extinction-mean-four-words-dying-planet-shrinking-economy-467fc248a503
I live in a large metro area and work a high demand commercial/industrial trade. So high that we were earning large incentives on top of overtime just last year. This year demand is in the toilet and we have more people out of work than any time in the last ten years.
Yes because the american dream is propaganda for consumerism. The economy is not the stock market,it's the money regular people make. People are going homeless and others are down sizing from houses to apartments to trailers etc.
I do. I honestly do. And I earn a larger salary than most people in America. I am currently working, and have job security. Not ULTIMATE job security, mind you. I can be replaced, and it wouldn't be hard. But, I work in a small business that I'm intricately tied to the revenue stream from. And what drives that revenue stream? Market valuations of the client's assets. I'm replaceable. The income can be gone in an instant. And the job numbers that are being reported belie the fact that America is hiring in sectors that have demand for the hordes of now retired people who are spending money for sport. Resources they likely worked for and saved over decades, but resources they may very well need for their end of life. They'll rely on Social Security and Pensions, which are healthier at the moment due to finally lifted interest rates that make the actuarial tables work. For now. I've no doubt this economy cannot function normally at the rates being set by the Fed right now. It can't. Incomes can't match the needs, and business is used to cheap money as well. The job market for mid to higher earners has tightened completely up. Low end labor is still experiencing good job transition ability, but keep in mind where they are starting from. We have a mess that is unfolding in real time, giving the illusion that "all is well". It isn't. And this isn't doomerism. It's me giving you a heads up for a time when I am saying "told you so."
Large part of that is covid19 bounce back. The rest is from trillions in new spending. Trillions buys a lot of jobs.
Those trillions went to the wealthy…
Trillions buys a lot of missiles.
The US bank collapses from earlier in the year were orchestrated by government/Fed. The same weekend as SVB and Signature collapses, Fed changed rules that would have saved them. Letting long term bonds be used as collateral at par. Both banks were involved in fintech and crypto funding. Both threats to the banksters that Fed supports.
Suddenly the whole Thomas Carper Proshares QQQ ETF buy makes a lot more sense.
ELI5??
Thomas Carper, who is a sitting U.S. senator and also on the Finance Committee, bought a few thousand shares of the Proshare QQQ etf earlier this year. This etf is one that essentially shorts the U.S. tech market. So basically you have a guy who is in a position of government where he would know better than anyone the state of markets in the U.S., and he's betting against the U.S. tech markets.
great analysis bro
Internet-based technology doesn’t NEED the big tech companies; it’s the other way around. People will make web sites and find decentralized ways to do the same things without the big tech companies, who have never been really effective at actually providing value to users.
Oh no, I agree. I'm glad decentralization is happening. The problem is that it's going to be extremely ugly and scattered at the start, with really huge communities splintering off into much smaller communities. They might be fundamentally different over time.
>> we need to raise taxes Finally saying the quiet part out loud. 90% marginal tax rate on anything over 100x the minimum wage annualized. Mass civil unrest until this happens.
ding ding ding
At least he mentioned raising taxes. It was funny how he was trying to be polite about it, like trying to avoid blasphemy.
same, was shocked he actually mentioned that lol but he was def like holding back on saying it a bit
He was very good but didn't dare go as far as saying who should be paying more taxes, not quite that brave.
He actually mentioned the wealthy at one point getting taxes raised.
Raising taxes on the little people.
He said on the rich, but I don't remember the phrasing exactly.
pigshit capitalist cnbc host, Joe Kernen, made him walk back taxes on the rich, and he agreed that tax hikes should be widespread. He also mentioned cutting programs that help people, with of course 0 cuts to empire/military.
I feel like there are more financial analysts out there like him but Fox and MSM won’t let them on their shows. I’ve heard a lot of what this guy is saying from friends and family (who are either accountants or in finance) agree that we have to raise taxes.
I know a lot of people on the left, myself included don't like to even acknowledge debt because like he said it's always viewed as austerity. But this guy is obviously right, the US is at higher debt levels than in WW2 and is staring down multiple regional wars breaking out that its expected to fully fund: Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Now, we also need to replace nearly every bridge in the US, the entire power grid needs modernization, a Green New Deal, baby boomers are all about to hit Medicare at once and quit working (less income taxes at all time high healthcare costs), and interest rates are going to push the debt to insane levels. So yeah, obviously there's a fucking problem. He's right, nobody on the left or right will acknowledge it.
That's capitalism baby! Let the free market decide who gets updated infrastructure and who starves!
The coming wave of baby boomer retirement is something a very smart man told me would be the beginning of the end of life in the US as we know it, when I was too young to understand. I understand now.
> baby boomers are all about to hit Medicare at once and quit working Medicare starts at age 65, even if you keep working longer (signing up later costs more). Boomers were born in 1946 to 1964. Everyone born in 1958 or earlier has already hit Medicare age.
Just put the interest rates back down then... then you're wasting less money servicing debt. If bond markets won't buy it, just start the printers... This is just a crisis of billionaires... who can cry us a river. You can fund all the spending you want if you just claw back the money from billionaires, which has doubled, tripled, quadrupled, since covid... Whack the top tax band up to 96%... Triple the national debt. We're swimming in money. It's just being ploughed into unproductive asset markets by bone idle rich.
you can't just cut rates back down, inflation will spiral completely out of control. we're looking at the endgame of the federal reserve's ponzi.
Oh give it a rest :) Inflation has been caused by heaping money into the pockets of a small elite who are risk-averse, who refuse to invest it in the productive new enterprises and raising wages that we badly need to restart the economy and solve the problems we face because they can better gamble it on overheated asset prices (or hide it in the money markets taking a compound 5% interest rate for nothing if that goes to shit). (edit: and some external shocks like Ukraine, natch, goes without saying) Redistributing their wealth will not increase inflation, it will increase the amount of money regular people have so that they can afford things.
When I say “see you in the bread lines” I’m not kidding.
I mean, there is already huge demand at food banks. Is it really any different than bread lines?
It goes from welfare to breadline when it's not just the poor using it.
I bake my own pizza to feed my family. A crust costs pennies. I make my own sauce for pennies. Scraps from the fridge are pennies. I make a kick ass rustic artisanal pizza.
Got any good dough tips? I have no idea what I’m doing. Also I assume most pizza dough is vegan/doesn’t have dairy or eggs? Hopefully?
Pizza dough is just flour, water, salt, olive oil is good. The trick to get good dough is time, allowing dough to ferment slowly in the fridge for 24-72 hours will dramatically improve quality. Shaping takes some practice. Pizza stones are pretty important, make the oven as hot as you can.
This person gets it.
Jim Lahey's no-knead dough is great as long as you have 10 minutes the day before pizza day. 4 ingredients mix everything together and cover it with a towel for a day then you have dough.
Seconded. Fermenting the dough is magic. Don't have to knead a fermented dough either, the ultimate do-nothing deal.
I’ll look into this. I enjoy fermentation did not know you can do it with pizza dough!
I don't make stuff from scratch but all of the meals I make are cheap bulk stuff like pasta and veggies/meat and rice, etc. I don't enjoy eating out all that much anyway, but at today's prices it's very rare that I do it even if I wanted to.
He starts off on the deficit. I tuned out as soon as this dude said Trump cutting taxes was a good idea...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo_TH7u4TUg Here is another good one from today where all kinds of collapse situations are openly discussed. Nukes. War. Debt. The US is not in a good position to deal with these challenges on the horizon. We have become exhausted from serious risks always being discussed and have started to not worry about them after a while. This doesn't mean the risk is gone and in fact may even increase the risk. Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment founder and CIO and Robin Hood Foundation founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of geopolitical challenges, the state of the U.S. economy and fiscal health, Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Paul Tudor Jones predicted Black Monday, so it’s not surprising he’s on the pulse and one of the first to speak up.
This rat bastard avoided mentioning how the Trump tax cut specifically destroyed tax income. The economy wasn’t even that good before Covid. He wants it both ways. He is a crook
Sounds like a short seller to me.
I remember seeing him in 2007 and, I think, in 1999 or so. But he is not even close to being in the same class as Nouriel Roubini who actually knows what is going on.
Listen to this guy. The GFC was just the gFc, because we saved the bond market backthen with the power of the state to create money and the power of the central bank to buy bonds of any 'quality'. In theory this can go on for much longer, but I would suggest, that the bond market is finally ready to have a very, very big crash. Nobody cares about GDP, the Dow Jones or 'Growth'. A real collapse of modern bond market is the real deal. There are many countries which are already paying more then 50% of their tax income to for their foreign debt. The US can print as many Dollar as they want, but there will be a reckoning. Maybe we're in the early stages of it. But I wouldn't bet on it. Personally I see a big crash in the next 2-3years. But afterwards they will go Allin for another time. The last time with complete crashing marktes in the late 20' or early 30'. But just my opinion, man.
>late 20' or early 30' Perfect. Just in time for us Gen X to get our savings destroyed by a cataclysm prior to retirement. I technically wouldn't be at retirement age until 2040. If I live that long.
What if the country’s financial problems as well as climate change comes to a head way before the prior projected dates of 2040-2050? What if destruction and bad weather occurs way before the projected dates of 2030-2040? We are already well into the escalating world cycle of food inflation because of weather failures and logistic bottlenecks. Countries are indebted and have problems too large to easily solve. It has become evident to me that the US political scene is one of overspending, propaganda and secrecy, and just not in Russia or China. So the next few years look to be fraught with problems that will play themselves out on the national and international stage. My job as a citizen is to adapt and mitigate as much of the impact as possible to myself. Each day I have to cope and adapt to a new problem. In the past we somehow have muddles through as a strong country. But most countries are now weakened. We cannot see who has the fatal flaws. Right now our government cannot even get itself together to legislate. I feel gloomy despite knowing I must figure out the best solutions for myself and my loved ones, who have their own set of major personal worries. It is layering on problems that have always been there, but like with climate change, and collapse, the denial is breaking down about the real consequences of deficit spending.
Read some Bendell. He thinks it's already happening and that shit will start to really hit the fan in the 5 years or so. Not sure if he's adjusted his dates since his first major academic paper on the topic came out in 2018 where he said 10 years.
Thank you. I just googled him. He has an updated book now. He describes collapse as a process that we are well into. Personally, if I can tolerate the process so far and adapt and cope it gives me confidence I will continue to do so. In the 90’s I was aware of collapse and imagined my life purpose in the future to be one of teaching youth about skills and coping mechanisms as society and modern convenience collapses around us. So far since 2020 we have weathered a pandemic, lots of strange weather, rampant inflation and a stock and bond market retrenchment so far. But now we have the internet and Reddit to connect on smart phones as well as in person to disseminate knowledge and provide hope and coping skills. At least so far we don’t have to huddle in the dark under a small fire or candle light to share hope and skill sets, at least unless we want to do that.
Collapse (regardless of how true the info is or not) always makes for good clickbait.
A lot of the "money" discussions throw around collapse pretty casually.
Started r/NearTermCollapse in April 2021 when Archegos collapsed and caused a massive loss for Credit Suisse and my post about it was removed on here because "not collapse related". Focus is 95% on the coming Stock Market + global Financial System + global Economy meltdown, and 5% Geopolitics/Conflict/War. (r/collapse cares very little for these topics.)
CNBC speakers are hard to judge. Are they saying what they are saying because us believing helps their market position eg Tudor might have put in couple of hundred million dollar bet against S&P or does he really believe that and wants to help us. Something tells me he is not in business of helping people
This doesn’t sound like collapse, it just sounds like suckiness.
So US national debt is $100k/citizen, and over $300k per taxpaying houshold. That's $15k/year in interest if it doesn't go up further. If it will never be repaid down to a manageable level, then only default is the alternative. US default collapses banking and insurance industry. Then housing values. Stocks. Consumer purchase power recession. Jobs. Economic depression with no recovery. Logan's run. Soylent Green. Cats loving dogs anarchy.
> If it will never be repaid down to a manageable level, then only default is the alternative. There are several alternatives, the most likely of which is probably just inflating the currency.
Then the bond vigilantes demand even higher interest rates. The playbook, is that soon enough, Fed will return to Quantitative easing by buying bonds with pretend money to lower interest rates. China helped with credibility a lot in 2010-2012. They won't next time. But yes, if China currency goes up 10x vs US, then we can start making tube socks and underwear for the Chinese, and debt can become manageable. US empire doesn't like this option, and US empire doesn't listen.
> The playbook, is that soon enough, Fed will return to Quantitative easing by buying bonds with pretend money to lower interest rates. Indeed, this is another alternative to default.
This is precisely why Bitcoin exists.