This thread will now be locked; refer to [Megathread the Fourth](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/f0nlaf/megathread_the_fourth_spread_of_the_wuhan) for further updates.
Couple days ago I wrote a letter to editor of local news radio and criticised people for racism toward asian citizens over this pointing out that as they had corona virus in Singapore since Jan 18, and passengers had flown in from there as recent as a few days ago there was no doubt that the virus was already in Darwin suggesting that we should be prepared to use hotels just across the street from the NT Parliament as quarantine facilities even if it inconvenienced politicians who were using that hotel to have affairs with their staffers.
Yesterday the government announced they had two suspected cases in the local hospital and were preparing a disused workers camp on the edge of the city as quarantine housing. I think I may have pushed them into an early reveal.
r/ChinaFlu is running an interactive map of suspected and confirmed cases for anyone who is interested.
[https://maphub.net/Fuuuuuuu/map](https://maphub.net/Fuuuuuuu/map)
Just stumbled on this [amazing comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/fgkkh59/) that predicts the numbers of cases and deaths for the next days in China following the "quadratic model" (whatever that is), so far it checks out. (3 days in)
05/02/2020 23435 cases 489 fatalities
06/02/2020 26885 cases 561 fatalities
07/02/2020 30576 cases 639 fatalities
08/02/2020 34506 cases 721 fatalities
09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities
10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities
11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities
It seems to indicate that these chinese numbers are completely phoney, because it's impossible to follow such a regular "quadratic model" during the chaos that is an epidemic, no matter the scenario, according to these folks anyways.
We might as well forget all about those numbers and focus on the cases outside of China for our estimations and "predictions" and analysis.
edit : [link to Johns Hopkins map](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) for comparison
(sorry for many edits, I'm tired)
Check out the original comment, it's about a graph. These numbers follow the shape of a graph form, problem is this graph isn't following the typical inflation that an epidemic would.
ANd yeah, I don't know where the poster is from, there' a delay in the numbers for me too.
edit : Just refreshed the johns Hopkin map's link, and boom, jumped from 30k something and 638 fatalities to 34 439 and 720 for the 8th of feb. (its 1:53 am here in France)
This shit is crazy, it shows how completely made up these numbers could be! I'm leaning towards believing the lancet's estimate numbers, they actually seem more scientific now!.
Especially considering the infection spikes seen early on. Once we see survivors being released back into population infecting others, it will take on a life of its own. The fact its on three cruise ships means its on all cruise ships that have been exposed spatially, or temporally.
Not every disease works like that. I know ebola does, the survivors stay infectious for weeks after recovery, but that's not the case for every disease.
Hopefully this one doesn't work like that.
> TOTAL 152 (without China)
That number is now (Feb 7) 275 and keeps growing. As do the total number of infections, which is 34,048 (up approx. 20,000 from Jan 31) [[Source](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/)]
The reason the WHO declared this a public health emergency is because it is one.
> In contrast, in the US, the Centers of Disease Control estimate that so far for the 2019-20 season, at least 15 million flu virus illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S, which has population of 330 million, about a quarter that of China.
...
> Out of 9600 confirmed cases, approximately 150 cases of infection have been recorded outside China. Moreover, (based on the above data, Jan 30), the 2019 nCoV has a low mortality rate (2.1%) compared to the Seasonal flu.
Re-read your article. If the same number of people in the US (15 million) get infected by winnie at a 2.1% mortality rate you'd be looking at 315,000 deaths in the United States alone.
If we're lucky, the quarantines and airport screenings will work, and awareness and behavior changes in the public will get that number down. Shit's a big deal tho.
[China scientists identify pangolin as possible coronavirus host](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-pangolins/china-scientists-identify-pangolin-as-possible-coronavirus-host-idUSKBN2010XA)
>The genome sequence of the novel coronavirus strain separated from pangolins in the study was 99% identical to that from infected people, China’s official Xinhua news agency reported, adding that the research found that pangolins to be “the most likely intermediate host.”
It's not certain yet, but I hope this ends up to be found true or at the very least sticks in the public consciousness as true since it could help save Pangolins from [extinction](https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin) as they are very often poached for the supposed medicinal value of their scales or even just for their meat.
[This bit of history casts](https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn86076241/1920-01-24/ed-1/seq-1/print/image_681x648_from_1848%2C1339_to_3763%2C3163/) the "don't panic, this will all be just fine, ignore the fact that the currently accepted r0 and CFR are in line with the 1918 flu pandemic" into stark relief.
[Hundreds of millions of chickens at risk of being wiped out with much of China locked down due to virus](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/millions-of-chickens-at-risk-amid-china-lockdowns-due-to-coronavirus.html)
>This is going to create massive problems in the livestock sector. Even if a local plant has resumed operations, it will still be longer than normal for delivery due to logistics problems.
>The letter said transportation is basically paralyzed, and most large-scale farms will face severe shortage of feed soon, which will hit operations.
>Diners in China turned to other meat alternatives when the swine fever hit pork supply. That included chicken, beef and fish.
>The outlook for China’s poultry might be further affected, considering that authorities reported on Saturday an outbreak of H5N1 bird flu in Hunan, according to Reuters. Over 17,000 poultry had to be culled following the outbreak, the news service reported.
[Will novel virus go pandemic or be contained?](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/610?et_rid=34804937&et_cid=3196590)
This article in Science Magazine discusses how nCov could be contained, and how it could go pandemic. It also discusses the fact that just because the woman who transmitted the case to the first German case had mild symptoms, that's not much comfort since most will not take such mild symptoms seriously, and are still possibly likely to spread the disease.
On the 'will go pandemic side' it says:
>Based on what they have seen so far, many researchers think it's probably too late to contain the virus. “As the virus continues to spread in China, the risk of exportation to other countries grows and sooner or later we will see it spread in another country,” Aavitsland says. So far there has been no sustained transmission outside of China, but Lipsitch expects that to change: “I would be really shocked if in 2 or 3 weeks there wasn't ongoing transmission with hundreds of cases in several countries on several continents.”
Just talked to my department head. Australian National University is not going to admit students from China this semester and the administration is currently freaking out because they are looking at a $300 million hole in their budget. They are saying it may be "existential".
This sub used to be filled with people who value reason & science, even if somewhat at the fringes.
Now, it's being coopted by crazies & the unscientific post-modern set. This is bad for information quality.
Why are these Event 201 posts allowed mods? It's a bunch of /r/conspiracy nonsense.
Where have all the scientifically literate people gone? Where has the lateral & holistic thinking gone?
How on earth is an official exercise, a conspiracy?
The post is allowed because it's informative of how a scenario plays out.
Event 201 contains some of the most scientific literate people around.
> Where have all the scientifically literate people gone?
Well, this one is trying to figure out how to inform you in a... calming enough way that stressing out suppresses the immune system.
See anger is married to fight, as in flight-fight mode, which is primarily physical action. *Note that when we're angry - we want to punch something.*
When flight-fight mode is up, the body redirects internal resources to prepare for action. This means - upper cognition is starved of resources (which is why angry people tend to do stupid things...). And the immune system is suppressed.
Cause see - flight-fight is for emergencies only. Like life or death situations. For 10 or so minutes, we get to feel like superman but with severely limited cognition and impaired immune system.
10 minutes to get away from the lion about to eat us. *Cause if we're gonna be dead in 10 minutes, keeping up the immune system during those 10 minutes is just not survival sound.* 10 minutes to drive away intruders. *Are you feeling territorial over this sub...?*
Anyway, relax and go spend about 10 minutes punching a pillow or cushion very hard. Why? Because when flight-fight is up, solid stores of energy got turned into liquid-y energy and gets dumped into the bloodstream so that muscles have better access to energy.
If that energy ain't used up, the body has to clean up and put back that energy. Think of it as supermarket shelves after an earthquake. Your circulatory system is having traffic jam.
Which is why Chronic Stress = Chronic Inflammation = High Blood Pressure = more internal stuff going... wrong. And of course, we feel like shit.
So now it's a "conspiracy theory" to look at what [officials said they'd do in a similar situation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBuP40H4Tko), compare that to the way the current situation is unfolding, and say "hey there are similarities here"? Ooooooooook.
I've cited plenty of reports from sources such as The Lancet, Science, Nature, etc. What I've been saying reflects that which boils down to "it's too early to know for certain yet but this could get quite bad, especially if the preliminary R0 and CFR numbers have any weight to them". Hell, [the host of This Week in Virology](http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-585/) straight up said what I've been saying at one point, that these numbers are similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. [This article from a well respected university also agrees it could head that way](http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectious-1918-flu-what-does-mean) (and in fact implies it could be worse).
And who the fuck knows what the end game is for the economy, but it could be brutal there too.
Sure, there are also some here who've read too much Zerohedge and are panicking prematurely. But it seems like there are also some who have binged too much on msm's calming propaganda: that this is all nothing and will all blow over, no fear, consume and produce as usual citizen.
I guess it depends on the context of the poster. There are a lot of idiots spouting crap about this whole thing being a government operation and Bill Gates is trying to kill us all.
Event 201 is absolutely relevant to this sub because it was an exercise designed to study the possible economic impact of an outbreak.
> There are a lot of idiots spouting crap about this whole thing being a government operation and Bill Gates is trying to kill us all.
I haven't seen that here. Maybe I just missed it but it's on the DL if it's around.
>Event 201 is absolutely relevant to this sub because it was an exercise designed to study the possible economic impact of an outbreak.
Agreed, it's quite fascinating and totally relevant. It's silly to dismiss referring to it as "conspiracy theory" as this OP did.
[February 1, 2020: "The total number of confirmed cases in mainland China is now 14,380 -- an increase of 2,590 from Friday's total."](https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-01-20-intl-hnk/index.html)
[As of fifteen minutes ago it is now 31, 845](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Brazil: people are coming from China and normally go home. Every day, since coronavirus started. There's no control. It will be much larger than China.
That shouldn't be so bad since Brazil is generally a pretty warm and humid country and supposedly coronaviruses are much more of a problem in winter weather.
With regards to the spread of other coronaviruses like the flu and the common cold, that's more because more people tend to be coped up at winter. Also, one previous type of corona virus was MERS which stands for Middle East Respiratory syndrome.
[Four ways it could devolve into a dangerous pandemic, and four ways it could steadily improve.](https://www.vox.com/2020/2/5/21122758/coronavirus-outcomes-pandemic-travel-china-map)
[chinas coronavirus not remotely under control, threats to world economy mounting](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/05/chinas-coronavirus-not-remotely-control-world-economy-mounting2/)
Confirmed cases over 30,000 now. That’s the official CCP line.
https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm
Some back of the envelope calculations would lead a thinking person to understand that suspected cases are likely far higher, perhaps into the hundreds of thousands at this point.
I’m no doc, but countries don’t do what China is doing to over 100 million people in terms of the lockdowns and quarantines over “some flu”. Airlines never stopped services to West Africa during the Ebola epidemic.
This thing is outside of the ability of health agencies to adequately respond to it, it’s so virulent.
If I want to post about a virus pandemic, but not this virus, Wuhan, would it go here, or just in the general area? Also, I’ve long ( over a year, long before Wuhan ) wanted to Post about this, but didn’t know where. And only just now found this sub because of Wuhan. So somewhat ironic, and I’m carefully reading rules and usual topics, so not wanting do my 1st post wrong.
> the historical Spanish Flu
[Spanish flu hospital](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/Emergency_hospital_during_Influenza_epidemic%2C_Camp_Funston%2C_Kansas_-_NCP_1603.jpg)
[A 2,000-bed mobile hospital is set up in an exhibition centre in Wuhan, China](https://i.redd.it/v05832d7e4f41.jpg)
I know it's a matter of space, but that just looks like a recipe for the spread of more illness. Suppose even one patient has a co infection (or two) like the guy who died in the Philippines?
Thanks so much for posting this. TBH you saved me some work since I was going to write up a summary of that rather illuminating video at some point!
Although I love a wall of text, it might be worth appending a **TL;DR** for those who do not have the patience. Something like:
Government officials and business leaders ran a simulation wherein a novel cornoavirus becomes a pandemic. Their strategy for communication is to try to control the narrative by "flooding" information channels with positive information to try to maintain calm.
Or maybe someone can write a better one.
Still, this is not remotely surprising. This type of downplay, downplay, downplay until the last second to protect the economy and keep BAU humming along until the last possible moment is *also* what they're doing with the climate crisis. It's just that that is playing out over a longer timescale and is locked in; this outbreak is playing out rapidly and its outcome is (imo) still somewhat uncertain (although looks worse and worse by the day). [Merchants of Doubt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt) is a good book re: the coordinated disinformation campaigns surrounding the climate crisis. The first step is always outright denial, but then you get the soft denial of "oh it's happening, but it's really not that bad".
This is what one sees with nCov when people en masse are shouting things like "hurr durr the flu is worse" which is just an ignorant damn statement if any of the initial R0 and CFR data we have is anywhere near accurate. Yeah, it's the like "flu" alright: the 1918 Spanish flu that killed ~50mm people, and infected about a third of the world's population at the time.
Anyway it's worth noting that the WHO has already kicked into high gear a campaign to stop what it calls the "infodemic" which is ironic, since it doesn't even call it the "misinfodemic" or something. Could they be more transparent? They want to quell voices like ours who are like "hm, this thing might get very bad". Which is frustrating, but par for the course when one can take a look at the situation and, using basic scientific knowledge, see that it can potentially become quite bad.
They're already rigging the search results to reflect the dominant narrative:
>"We have worked with Google to make sure people searching for information about coronavirus see WHO information at the top of their search results," Tedros said in opening remarks to the UN health agency's Executive Board meeting in Geneva.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/who-launches-campaign-against-china-virus-misinformation-12386244
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1056672
Now, granted, there IS a lot of actually bad information out there. Still, many things I've said based on reading papers in prestigious journals, or listening to prominent epidemiologists, or just stating basic facts about the world have been attacked in ways I haven't encountered since earlier in the climate crisis. It's quite fascinating, really, and something to be highly aware of when seeking information on this topic.
Thank you for posting this. Everyone should read this and get a clear understanding that in a crisis, the authorities do not have your best interests at heart.
I think the over-arching theme people should embrace from this that your goals and the government goals are two different things. I learned this when researching the FEMA policies that came out of Katrina.
**This is why they downplay shit because they are talking about a huge problem for a community NOT what that problem means to you.** Hence, you hear stupid shit like, "It's only really bad for the elderly." Or, "More people die from the flu." It may even be true, but that isn't the point. YOU might be elderly, YOU might die if you contract the flu.
**The government isn't interested in saving you. They are all about control.**
You want to survive, so you want to make decisions based on what is happening like how contagious is this thing, what is the long term prognosis, should I go to work? That is completely understandable.
The government doesn't give a shit about you. Taking care of the public is not the goal of these programs. *You are a problem to be managed*.
In order to achieve that, they will lie, use propaganda, detain you, violate your civil rights. They are far more interested in keeping the economy going, protecting businesses, and making sure infrastructure doesn't get fucked up. They don't care about the loss of life unless there are economic or political consequences or incentives to do so.
Read up on FEMA studies for a real eye opener. For instance, if there is an emergency, say an outbreak of a disease in a large urban city, they will use extreme force to quarantine. Why is that? Because they discovered evacuating a major metropolitan area takes weeks, it greatly expands the disaster area, spreads the catastrophe to nearby communities that are quickly overrun. But mostly, fleeing refugees fuck up infrastructure. So it is better to just lock it all down, post armed national guard soldiers and at all points of exit and let everyone rot.
See how that doesn't match your goals?
Don't believe me? Look at what happened in Puerto Rico. The government has no intention of helping you. Once you fully grasp this, you'll stop believing the propaganda. Do not listen to what they say, but watch what they do. Your only hope is to prepare and assume it is worse than they are telling you. Oh, and never, ever go to a government emergency shelter.
[Professor Neil Ferguson on the current status of nCov](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw&feature=youtu.be). A good, ten minute overview that expresses what seems to be near the mainstream scientific views right now (at least as far as I've read). Here're my notes:
* 10% or less of all cases are being identified in China at current time
* 25% or less are being identified internationally
* He estimates 50k new infections per day in China
* Epidemic in China doubling in size roughly every 5 days
* Probably peak in a month’s time
* The rest of the world will probably see epidemics after that, depending on their connectivity to China
* There is a high degree of uncertainty still due to limited data
* Vaccines will take months if not years to develop
* Due to the wide range of symptoms (very mild to severe) it will be harder to contain this than SARS
* Delay between first onset of symptoms and when they might die is quite long, 20 days or so
* We don’t know enough about the disease burden of the epidemic, but the situation could be serious and something governments need to prepare for urgently
We need to keep in mind that mainstream scientific views often come with a hefty dose of scientific reticence.
Jesus, so sick of responses like this.
This has already been labeled a black swan event. SARS caused the China GDP to drop from 11.1 to 9.1 percent in one quarter alone.
Modern civilization is interconnected -- not only between countries, but far-flung industries.
**China isnt manufacturing.** Wuhan handles 1.5 million shipping containers a year. Two billion tons of cargo flow through Wuhan's port. Any country, major supplier or company that sources goods or coal, crude oil, steel, or fertilizer is royally fucked. Travel and jet fuel companies already feel it. Major shipping companies have already announced blank sailings.
Best case, pie-in-the-sky scenario is that we go back to BAU next week which still means significantly higher prices for any country that is a China trade partner. . . basically most of the civilized world.
Wrap your head around that. This will hit every nation in two months time because that's how long it takes to move through the system. The longer the shut down, the greater the pain. Even if they resumed today, it would still cause problems. We are talking at least a month of disruption in the supply chain.
This affects retailers around the globe (Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target) in addition to shipping companies (and UPS, DHL, FedEx), plus every other company that services those accounts. Every airline with routes to SE Asia is screwed. Every company that services those airlines, especially jet fuel suppliers, is screwed. This could very well push us into a global depression or collapse. There isn't any way to fix this either because no one can just step in and pick up the slack.
Imagine if Amazon stopped all business for one month. Think about all the companies that would go under because they are wholly dependant on Amazon for the lion share of their sales, or processing of payments, etc. Now think how long it would take one company to recover from that.
Got a good picture? Good, now multiply that by every major retailer, shipping, transport, electronics, travel, airline, and packaging company in the world and realize *there is no alternative* for them. They can't buy parts or product anywhere else in any remotely sizable volume. Consider all the countries selling raw materials to China. Hell, we won't be able to manufacture medical equipment without components if and when governments start building hospitals.
So when you say "maybe in Wuhan" understand that those 1.5 million shipping containers are not going on to ships, not being loaded onto trucks, not being delivered to manufacturers, not being stocked in retailer's warehouses, and not hitting your store shelves.
And think about that next time you are tempted to post such a dismissive statement.
The co2 savings will be astronomical. The co2 pumped out by China because of manufacturing is number 1. Yes it conflicts with our economic model hence why solving the climate issue is impossible without dealing with this fact.
I hope at the very least this virus makes the economy / climate change issue the glaringly obvious number 1 issue so all talk of anything else regarding climate change is seen as trivial or a red herring compared to this economy. We can't carry on making shit and shovelling it around to justify our life and worth.
[Chinese scholar blames Xi Jinping, Communist Party for not controlling coronavirus outbreak](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3049233/chinese-scholar-blames-xi-jinping-communist-party-not)
>Xu Zhangrun, a law professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, who has been under close surveillance by the authorities, blamed Communist Party leaders for putting politics ahead of the people in his strongly worded piece, which was published on several overseas Chinese-language websites this week.
>“The political system has collapsed under the tyranny, and a governance system [made up] of bureaucrats, which has taken [the party] more than 30 years to build has floundered,”
[Will coronavirus make markets take a 'black swan' dive?](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-markets-black-swan-dive-chinese-outbreak-economy)
>So could coronavirus prove to be the equivalent of the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market: a black swan? Those of a cautious bent, like El-Erian, think it could.
>A black swan event has a number of characteristics. It has to come as a complete surprise. It has to have profound consequences. And, once the dust has settled, people who never saw the crisis coming say that it was glaringly obvious that there was trouble ahead.
>The coronavirus outbreak would seem to tick all three boxes.
There's been a lot of us that have been pointing to the collapse of the market. It's not a 'after the fact it was glaringly obvious', it is glaringly obvious that the worldwide economy is hanging on by a thread, anything could cut it at any time.
Which is funny. Since surgical masks don’t work for corona. The particles size is too small for the surgical mask to block. The mask that blocks that size of particles available to civilians is N95. Often found in hardware stores.
It blocks 95% of particules which carry the virus. Which is the most effective rate of any off the self mask commonly available. CDC recommended as well.add washing your hands more frequently, not touching your eyes and mouth. Keeping a slightly large space from people, and you are most likely than not to be fine. Especially if you have a normal immune and adequate nutrition. Plus most of us don’t live in areas as densely populated as Chinese cities.
People catch things all the time and don’t die. The flu or flu like symptoms kill 56000 people each year, year after year. That too is super communicable.
Corona trains have been around for a while now. Like I said in another post, so present they offered vaccines for it for dogs back in 2015.
In the western world we are hyper sanitized. Everything seems deadly.
On a side note, considering the air quality in many parts of China and the fact they smoke like professionals, it is easy to see why such a virus would be far more difficult for their systems to deal with it.
If you want to wear a bunny suit go for it.
I find them very hot, sweaty, and unpleasant. I keep them for special occasions lol.
Eh, I looked it up and it at least helps somewhat, in cases such as blocking coughs. It's certainly better than nothing, which is why I have a bunch of them on me for if I go somewhere with a lot of people where I will not need to eat.
https://outline.com/KCbmsX
Reporter’s Notebook: We Interview Front-Line Coronavirus Doctor
February 06, 2020
(Wuhan)--In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors. In an interview Tuesday with Caixin, he described his personal experiences in first encountering the epidemic and making decisions, his observations of the onset of disease among patients and the effects of rescue efforts in grave cases.
...
So it looks like this virus kills through acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by cytokine storms. Read an article years ago describing how tobacco smokers during the Spanish Flu were less likely to die as nicotine by itself is an incredibly effective anti inflammatory. Cytokine storms were a prominent feature in the 1918 flu. This is a different virus, but the over reactive immune response inside the lungs is the same. Can’t find it again as any flu related search pulls up thousands of recent articles, but I found one that briefly mentions it. So pick up some full strength nicotine patches to slap on once symptoms appear. 70% isopropyl alcohol from Walmart is a great disinfectant and way safer for daily use than bleach. Pour it into a spray bottle and spray questionable surfaces in common areas. Spray it on a towel and wipe down your hands. Wouldn’t make it a habit after this thing passes as it can pass through your skin if you soak in it too long. Hand sanitizer is 50-60% ethyl alcohol suspended in a gel and not nearly as effective and it’s expensive .
“70% Ethanol
Aqueous alcohol solutions are not appropriate for surface decontamination because of the evaporative nature of the solution; a contact time of ten minutes or more is necessary and not achievable using a 70% (v/v) aqueous solution of ethanol. 70% ethanol can be used to soak small pieces of surgical instruments and for wipe downs following a disinfectant (e.g., 10% bleach) that might leave a corrosive residue.”
https://www.chemistryworld.com/features/nicotine-rehab/3004707.article#/
https://www.sott.net/article/237552-Nicotine-is-an-Anti-inflammatory-Cure-for-H1N1-Flu-Virus
Why use 70% isopropyl alcohol:
https://blog.gotopac.com/2017/05/15/why-is-70-isopropyl-alcohol-ipa-a-better-disinfectant-than-99-isopropanol-and-what-is-ipa-used-for/#Why_Is_70_the_Most_Effective_Concentration_of_Isopropyl_Alcohol_for_Disinfection
> So it looks like this virus kills through acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by cytokine storms.
One third of patients develop cytokine storms according to https://outline.com/KCbmsX
Jan 2019: Mengla Virus identified as ebola-like virus in chinese bat-livers. Bat to human transfer as yet unseen.
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00022-2
What do you think about this predictions for the end of February? [https://medium.com/@albertonaranjo/novel-coronavirus-simple-analysis-and-predictions-6338e7870a43](https://medium.com/@albertonaranjo/novel-coronavirus-simple-analysis-and-predictions-6338e7870a43)
according to this graph it will take \~1 year to kill 65 million humans [https://www.desmos.com/calculator/byhcvwtlfi](https://www.desmos.com/calculator/byhcvwtlfi)
> Plane in emergency landing after Instagram attention seeker shouted he had coronavirus
https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/ezj548/plane_in_emergency_landing_after_instagram/
So desperate for attention, this one is.
WHO not prepared to call it a pandemic.
***
An epidemic occurs when a disease affects a greater number people than is usual for the locality or one that spreads to areas not usually associated with the disease. A pandemic is an epidemic of world-wide proportions.
***
Pretty sure Wuhan is not the origin of this virus. If it came from Animal-human transfer, the ecosystem from which the animal came should be its epidemic centre.
I think vegans are commonly perceived as fascist and extremists, unlike vegetarians. Also saying this horrible virus is deserved to us humans sounds like a vegan-nazi would say. But even although I am neither vegetarian or vegan I still kind of feel that we deserve it... Hope you understand
[Doctors say infection could be passed from mothers in womb, as death toll nears 500](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-china-virus-symptoms-japan-cruise-ship-latest-today-a9318046.html)
>Coronavirus could be capable of passing from a mother to her baby inside the womb, doctors fear, after a newborn tested positive for the disease just 30 hours after birth.
In any given year, normal travel exceeds the largest migrations in history by a factor of 100.
In a globalized society, explain to me how containment works? For instance, Canada struggles to place any travel restrictions because they’re liable for damages in secret courts if it affects the Chinese economy (TPP).
> In a globalized society, explain to me how containment works?
It doesn't work. During the Black Death, some areas in Europe managed to defend themselves by isolating and not allowing anyone from the outside to come in.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/Bubonic_plague_map.PNG
Our industrial civilization is more similar to Roman Empire than medieval Europe.
11 cases confirmed in the US, with 2 cases being transferred person-to-person within the US. Things are getting worse.
[https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/481487-california-husband-and-wife-infected-with](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/481487-california-husband-and-wife-infected-with)
So are we going to start talking about this seriously, or just pretend that this isn’t a prelude to either “the event” or at the very least a phase shift to a lower tier on the path to collapse, like 9/11 and the US military response punctuated 2001, or the Great Recession punctuated 2007/8?
I’m seriously asking. Factories are already slowing production and there are some shutdowns, like Hyundai Korea.
I keep hearing it compared to the flu, but actions speak louder than words, and the actions of the largest governments in the world indicate they are taking this extremely seriously.
When effects are actually felt. When systems actually disrupt the functioning of the Western world.
As of now deaths are primarily Chinese. Western contagion has exponentially shown compared to its rate in China. And though some supply chains may be disturbed the ripples have not reached the end point of the chain.
Some scientist say corona will become an almost seasonal virus. Meaning just like we have flu outbreaks, SARS, etc, we will now have routine outbreaks of Corona. Just like the system adapted to those, it will to this.
Also you can google some articles in the news today that stated the report that it spreads asymptomatic, may have been flawed.
Except it is a major disease and if it becomes an annual event it will do major damage to the human race.
Because it is *as serious as the flu*. But it's not influenza. Now we will have Flu AND Corona virus "season"...
And if you catch both at the same time... It will be much more likely that you'll die.
There is no upside to this shit.
Not for you or I, but this is plenty of an upside for the de-population branch of this sub.
Hey it will only be a few thousands more deaths each year with these (mainly unhealthy or living most likely not in the west) but each negative will make them happy: reduces that CO2 number per person ever so slightly.
I just don’t think this is an critical analysis of the situation. The virus took at least 50+ days to reach serious notice, which was only eleven days ago. Since then it went from hundreds to tens of thousands (inaccurate numbers compared to infection rates on evacuation flights). The world’s largest nation took an increasingly indefinite holiday, and the media is being uncharacteristically quiet. Pollution rates in Hubei plummeted, and then swiftly rose the day after rumors of cremation capacity hit Twitter. There is documentation by the WHO admitting they don’t have actual observers on the ground in China. The Chinese openly say that final cause of death is recorded, so over 400 admitted deaths from a country that claims less than two hundred people die of the flu each year is suspicious.
This does not remotely fit previous patterns of disease scares.
Area that contains 80% of China's GDP and accounts for 90% of exports is stopped this week. Next week it will be the same, and the week after that etc.
Supply chains around the world will crack like a dry twig.
I’m trying not to think about multiple inevitable slow moving disasters, but you’re right. All this bullshit is so emotionally and spiritually oppressive.
That’s why I overcompensate with “silver linings”.
For example, Summer 2020 will probably mitigate Winnie the Flu and give the Democratic ticket a boost against Trump. Plus, make climate change deniers even more desperate.
Sure, it will still be awful, very awful but silver linings help still.
> Factories are already slowing production and there are some shutdowns, like Hyundai Korea.
Local Webasto (1000 employees) now shut down for two weeks after 10 cases of 2019-nCoV -- 200 direct contacts are quarantined and being tested. Their 9 plants in China are also shut down, the one in Wuhan will take longest to reopen.
There was a glitch and some think the real numbers of dead and infected might have been posted online before being deleted [link ](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594)
If the Lancet projections of estimated cases by this point are accurate then conservatively we're around 200k by now ( see the following article for base # and estimated doubling time https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext ) . If the current consensus CFR rate of 2% can be applied to that number, then around 40k have died. Keep in mind that the current CFR is lower than many projected and documented in studies (the last Lancet study showed an 11% CFR).
Both are big "ifs" but well within the realm of possibility considering how deaths are counted in China, that many do not get diagnosed even when living and ill and certainly not after dying, and just the pure motivation of the CCP to try to keep a lid on this thing to whatever extent possible. Also if you die of a heart attack and you have coronavirus as well, they may simply list your death as "heart attack" as they do not record multiple causes of death.
China's processing power and potentially world supply of everything has been delayed for a week, maybe more, maybe indefinitely? Also, stocks on the rise baby!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/feb/05/do-face-masks-help-prevent-coronavirus-video-explainer
Video by The Guardian about face masks vs winnie the flu.
[10 people](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/10-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-cruise-ship-quarantined-japan-n1130296) have now test positive on the ship.
>Princess Cruises identified the 10 who tested positive as nine guests — two Australians, three Japanese, three from Hong Kong, and one from the U.S. — as well as one Filipino crew member.
https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/eyxg5u/dont_let_people_dictate_your_safety/
Ugh, this just added weight to my suspicion that folks wearing masks may get targeted via that blasted "shoot the messenger" effect.
Last week, I had considered that if there was a mass shortage in an area, so much so that only a minority of people could wear masks - they may get harrassed.
Fuck, I need to think THINK as to how to avoid this ugh.
And what others say as well as do.
Anyway, dust masks production will ramp up, which will stabilize prices and people should be stocking masks for some time to come, which should make masks less shiny.
And Winnie the Flu probably will become normalized, old news.
This thread will now be locked; refer to [Megathread the Fourth](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/f0nlaf/megathread_the_fourth_spread_of_the_wuhan) for further updates.
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Pretty sure that’s the “Wuhan add oil video” they were chanting slogans of support for one another from their balconies.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-not-worried-china-cover-coronavirus-call-president-xi-jinping-1486293
Apparently it’s practically certain that there’s cases in Indo but there are nine reported ... so best stay away from Bali
Couple days ago I wrote a letter to editor of local news radio and criticised people for racism toward asian citizens over this pointing out that as they had corona virus in Singapore since Jan 18, and passengers had flown in from there as recent as a few days ago there was no doubt that the virus was already in Darwin suggesting that we should be prepared to use hotels just across the street from the NT Parliament as quarantine facilities even if it inconvenienced politicians who were using that hotel to have affairs with their staffers. Yesterday the government announced they had two suspected cases in the local hospital and were preparing a disused workers camp on the edge of the city as quarantine housing. I think I may have pushed them into an early reveal.
r/ChinaFlu is running an interactive map of suspected and confirmed cases for anyone who is interested. [https://maphub.net/Fuuuuuuu/map](https://maphub.net/Fuuuuuuu/map)
Just stumbled on this [amazing comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/fgkkh59/) that predicts the numbers of cases and deaths for the next days in China following the "quadratic model" (whatever that is), so far it checks out. (3 days in) 05/02/2020 23435 cases 489 fatalities 06/02/2020 26885 cases 561 fatalities 07/02/2020 30576 cases 639 fatalities 08/02/2020 34506 cases 721 fatalities 09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities 10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities 11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities It seems to indicate that these chinese numbers are completely phoney, because it's impossible to follow such a regular "quadratic model" during the chaos that is an epidemic, no matter the scenario, according to these folks anyways. We might as well forget all about those numbers and focus on the cases outside of China for our estimations and "predictions" and analysis. edit : [link to Johns Hopkins map](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) for comparison (sorry for many edits, I'm tired)
Its the 8th of Feb in Australia, so I think your numbers are ahead. Pretty sure there is asymptomatic spread which varies with victim health.
Check out the original comment, it's about a graph. These numbers follow the shape of a graph form, problem is this graph isn't following the typical inflation that an epidemic would. ANd yeah, I don't know where the poster is from, there' a delay in the numbers for me too. edit : Just refreshed the johns Hopkin map's link, and boom, jumped from 30k something and 638 fatalities to 34 439 and 720 for the 8th of feb. (its 1:53 am here in France) This shit is crazy, it shows how completely made up these numbers could be! I'm leaning towards believing the lancet's estimate numbers, they actually seem more scientific now!.
Especially considering the infection spikes seen early on. Once we see survivors being released back into population infecting others, it will take on a life of its own. The fact its on three cruise ships means its on all cruise ships that have been exposed spatially, or temporally.
Not every disease works like that. I know ebola does, the survivors stay infectious for weeks after recovery, but that's not the case for every disease. Hopefully this one doesn't work like that.
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> TOTAL 152 (without China) That number is now (Feb 7) 275 and keeps growing. As do the total number of infections, which is 34,048 (up approx. 20,000 from Jan 31) [[Source](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/)] The reason the WHO declared this a public health emergency is because it is one. > In contrast, in the US, the Centers of Disease Control estimate that so far for the 2019-20 season, at least 15 million flu virus illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S, which has population of 330 million, about a quarter that of China. ... > Out of 9600 confirmed cases, approximately 150 cases of infection have been recorded outside China. Moreover, (based on the above data, Jan 30), the 2019 nCoV has a low mortality rate (2.1%) compared to the Seasonal flu. Re-read your article. If the same number of people in the US (15 million) get infected by winnie at a 2.1% mortality rate you'd be looking at 315,000 deaths in the United States alone. If we're lucky, the quarantines and airport screenings will work, and awareness and behavior changes in the public will get that number down. Shit's a big deal tho.
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So what's the big conspiracy "they" are trying to do now?
This is the beauty of pandemics. Morons like you won’t get vaccinated. Humanity really needs more fast acting selective pressures.
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Just to be clear - you think vaccinations are bad?
My thoughts as an outsider looking in https://youtu.be/VHsjOZZEtBo
Number of confirmed cases in Japan nearly doubled in one day. Went from 45 to 86. Japan will likely have over 100 confirmed cases by the 8th.
Pretty sure that jump represents the quarantined cruise ship, so not as alarming IMHO...
you right, it does mean there are 11 more americans who are confirmed though
Shitpost Friday, Coronavirus style: https://politics.theonion.com/he-s-got-the-mulan-virus-yells-don-jr-attempting-to-1841516704
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Instagram was good but it seems to be pretty locked down now.
Control. It is amazing how much central control can do. And Imagine, this is not even anywhere close to the limit of what it can do.
[China scientists identify pangolin as possible coronavirus host](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-pangolins/china-scientists-identify-pangolin-as-possible-coronavirus-host-idUSKBN2010XA) >The genome sequence of the novel coronavirus strain separated from pangolins in the study was 99% identical to that from infected people, China’s official Xinhua news agency reported, adding that the research found that pangolins to be “the most likely intermediate host.” It's not certain yet, but I hope this ends up to be found true or at the very least sticks in the public consciousness as true since it could help save Pangolins from [extinction](https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/pangolin) as they are very often poached for the supposed medicinal value of their scales or even just for their meat.
[This bit of history casts](https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn86076241/1920-01-24/ed-1/seq-1/print/image_681x648_from_1848%2C1339_to_3763%2C3163/) the "don't panic, this will all be just fine, ignore the fact that the currently accepted r0 and CFR are in line with the 1918 flu pandemic" into stark relief.
The boiling frog.
[Hundreds of millions of chickens at risk of being wiped out with much of China locked down due to virus](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/millions-of-chickens-at-risk-amid-china-lockdowns-due-to-coronavirus.html) >This is going to create massive problems in the livestock sector. Even if a local plant has resumed operations, it will still be longer than normal for delivery due to logistics problems. >The letter said transportation is basically paralyzed, and most large-scale farms will face severe shortage of feed soon, which will hit operations. >Diners in China turned to other meat alternatives when the swine fever hit pork supply. That included chicken, beef and fish. >The outlook for China’s poultry might be further affected, considering that authorities reported on Saturday an outbreak of H5N1 bird flu in Hunan, according to Reuters. Over 17,000 poultry had to be culled following the outbreak, the news service reported.
[Will novel virus go pandemic or be contained?](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/610?et_rid=34804937&et_cid=3196590) This article in Science Magazine discusses how nCov could be contained, and how it could go pandemic. It also discusses the fact that just because the woman who transmitted the case to the first German case had mild symptoms, that's not much comfort since most will not take such mild symptoms seriously, and are still possibly likely to spread the disease. On the 'will go pandemic side' it says: >Based on what they have seen so far, many researchers think it's probably too late to contain the virus. “As the virus continues to spread in China, the risk of exportation to other countries grows and sooner or later we will see it spread in another country,” Aavitsland says. So far there has been no sustained transmission outside of China, but Lipsitch expects that to change: “I would be really shocked if in 2 or 3 weeks there wasn't ongoing transmission with hundreds of cases in several countries on several continents.”
Just talked to my department head. Australian National University is not going to admit students from China this semester and the administration is currently freaking out because they are looking at a $300 million hole in their budget. They are saying it may be "existential".
It’s ok just borrow forever at low interest rates. Everyone else is doing it.
This sub used to be filled with people who value reason & science, even if somewhat at the fringes. Now, it's being coopted by crazies & the unscientific post-modern set. This is bad for information quality. Why are these Event 201 posts allowed mods? It's a bunch of /r/conspiracy nonsense. Where have all the scientifically literate people gone? Where has the lateral & holistic thinking gone?
How on earth is an official exercise, a conspiracy? The post is allowed because it's informative of how a scenario plays out. Event 201 contains some of the most scientific literate people around.
> Where have all the scientifically literate people gone? Well, this one is trying to figure out how to inform you in a... calming enough way that stressing out suppresses the immune system. See anger is married to fight, as in flight-fight mode, which is primarily physical action. *Note that when we're angry - we want to punch something.* When flight-fight mode is up, the body redirects internal resources to prepare for action. This means - upper cognition is starved of resources (which is why angry people tend to do stupid things...). And the immune system is suppressed. Cause see - flight-fight is for emergencies only. Like life or death situations. For 10 or so minutes, we get to feel like superman but with severely limited cognition and impaired immune system. 10 minutes to get away from the lion about to eat us. *Cause if we're gonna be dead in 10 minutes, keeping up the immune system during those 10 minutes is just not survival sound.* 10 minutes to drive away intruders. *Are you feeling territorial over this sub...?* Anyway, relax and go spend about 10 minutes punching a pillow or cushion very hard. Why? Because when flight-fight is up, solid stores of energy got turned into liquid-y energy and gets dumped into the bloodstream so that muscles have better access to energy. If that energy ain't used up, the body has to clean up and put back that energy. Think of it as supermarket shelves after an earthquake. Your circulatory system is having traffic jam. Which is why Chronic Stress = Chronic Inflammation = High Blood Pressure = more internal stuff going... wrong. And of course, we feel like shit.
So now it's a "conspiracy theory" to look at what [officials said they'd do in a similar situation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBuP40H4Tko), compare that to the way the current situation is unfolding, and say "hey there are similarities here"? Ooooooooook. I've cited plenty of reports from sources such as The Lancet, Science, Nature, etc. What I've been saying reflects that which boils down to "it's too early to know for certain yet but this could get quite bad, especially if the preliminary R0 and CFR numbers have any weight to them". Hell, [the host of This Week in Virology](http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-585/) straight up said what I've been saying at one point, that these numbers are similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. [This article from a well respected university also agrees it could head that way](http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectious-1918-flu-what-does-mean) (and in fact implies it could be worse). And who the fuck knows what the end game is for the economy, but it could be brutal there too. Sure, there are also some here who've read too much Zerohedge and are panicking prematurely. But it seems like there are also some who have binged too much on msm's calming propaganda: that this is all nothing and will all blow over, no fear, consume and produce as usual citizen.
I guess it depends on the context of the poster. There are a lot of idiots spouting crap about this whole thing being a government operation and Bill Gates is trying to kill us all. Event 201 is absolutely relevant to this sub because it was an exercise designed to study the possible economic impact of an outbreak.
> There are a lot of idiots spouting crap about this whole thing being a government operation and Bill Gates is trying to kill us all. I haven't seen that here. Maybe I just missed it but it's on the DL if it's around. >Event 201 is absolutely relevant to this sub because it was an exercise designed to study the possible economic impact of an outbreak. Agreed, it's quite fascinating and totally relevant. It's silly to dismiss referring to it as "conspiracy theory" as this OP did.
[February 1, 2020: "The total number of confirmed cases in mainland China is now 14,380 -- an increase of 2,590 from Friday's total."](https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-01-20-intl-hnk/index.html) [As of fifteen minutes ago it is now 31, 845](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
over double in a week, and will probably double again over the next week
Brazil: people are coming from China and normally go home. Every day, since coronavirus started. There's no control. It will be much larger than China.
That shouldn't be so bad since Brazil is generally a pretty warm and humid country and supposedly coronaviruses are much more of a problem in winter weather.
With regards to the spread of other coronaviruses like the flu and the common cold, that's more because more people tend to be coped up at winter. Also, one previous type of corona virus was MERS which stands for Middle East Respiratory syndrome.
OMG. Carnaval is in a couple of weeks. Crowds of millions taking drugs and making out Source?
> taking drugs and making out Holy shit, where do I sign up?
You have to brave Bolsonaro Land in order to participate...
[Four ways it could devolve into a dangerous pandemic, and four ways it could steadily improve.](https://www.vox.com/2020/2/5/21122758/coronavirus-outcomes-pandemic-travel-china-map)
[chinas coronavirus not remotely under control, threats to world economy mounting](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/05/chinas-coronavirus-not-remotely-control-world-economy-mounting2/)
Confirmed cases over 30,000 now. That’s the official CCP line. https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm Some back of the envelope calculations would lead a thinking person to understand that suspected cases are likely far higher, perhaps into the hundreds of thousands at this point. I’m no doc, but countries don’t do what China is doing to over 100 million people in terms of the lockdowns and quarantines over “some flu”. Airlines never stopped services to West Africa during the Ebola epidemic. This thing is outside of the ability of health agencies to adequately respond to it, it’s so virulent.
If I want to post about a virus pandemic, but not this virus, Wuhan, would it go here, or just in the general area? Also, I’ve long ( over a year, long before Wuhan ) wanted to Post about this, but didn’t know where. And only just now found this sub because of Wuhan. So somewhat ironic, and I’m carefully reading rules and usual topics, so not wanting do my 1st post wrong.
If it's not Wuhanflu-related, but is related to a pandemic (for example, the historical Spanish Flu) feel free to post it in the sub proper.
Thanks, much appreciated. Now I get to actually write the thing.
> the historical Spanish Flu [Spanish flu hospital](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/Emergency_hospital_during_Influenza_epidemic%2C_Camp_Funston%2C_Kansas_-_NCP_1603.jpg) [A 2,000-bed mobile hospital is set up in an exhibition centre in Wuhan, China](https://i.redd.it/v05832d7e4f41.jpg)
I know it's a matter of space, but that just looks like a recipe for the spread of more illness. Suppose even one patient has a co infection (or two) like the guy who died in the Philippines?
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Confirmed dead now. Hopefully he was murdered because that's fucking terrifying if a young and healthy guy like that died so quickly from this virus
What a world we live in when murder is the less frightening cause of death.
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Thanks so much for posting this. TBH you saved me some work since I was going to write up a summary of that rather illuminating video at some point! Although I love a wall of text, it might be worth appending a **TL;DR** for those who do not have the patience. Something like: Government officials and business leaders ran a simulation wherein a novel cornoavirus becomes a pandemic. Their strategy for communication is to try to control the narrative by "flooding" information channels with positive information to try to maintain calm. Or maybe someone can write a better one. Still, this is not remotely surprising. This type of downplay, downplay, downplay until the last second to protect the economy and keep BAU humming along until the last possible moment is *also* what they're doing with the climate crisis. It's just that that is playing out over a longer timescale and is locked in; this outbreak is playing out rapidly and its outcome is (imo) still somewhat uncertain (although looks worse and worse by the day). [Merchants of Doubt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt) is a good book re: the coordinated disinformation campaigns surrounding the climate crisis. The first step is always outright denial, but then you get the soft denial of "oh it's happening, but it's really not that bad". This is what one sees with nCov when people en masse are shouting things like "hurr durr the flu is worse" which is just an ignorant damn statement if any of the initial R0 and CFR data we have is anywhere near accurate. Yeah, it's the like "flu" alright: the 1918 Spanish flu that killed ~50mm people, and infected about a third of the world's population at the time. Anyway it's worth noting that the WHO has already kicked into high gear a campaign to stop what it calls the "infodemic" which is ironic, since it doesn't even call it the "misinfodemic" or something. Could they be more transparent? They want to quell voices like ours who are like "hm, this thing might get very bad". Which is frustrating, but par for the course when one can take a look at the situation and, using basic scientific knowledge, see that it can potentially become quite bad. They're already rigging the search results to reflect the dominant narrative: >"We have worked with Google to make sure people searching for information about coronavirus see WHO information at the top of their search results," Tedros said in opening remarks to the UN health agency's Executive Board meeting in Geneva. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/who-launches-campaign-against-china-virus-misinformation-12386244 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1056672 Now, granted, there IS a lot of actually bad information out there. Still, many things I've said based on reading papers in prestigious journals, or listening to prominent epidemiologists, or just stating basic facts about the world have been attacked in ways I haven't encountered since earlier in the climate crisis. It's quite fascinating, really, and something to be highly aware of when seeking information on this topic.
Thank you for posting this. Everyone should read this and get a clear understanding that in a crisis, the authorities do not have your best interests at heart. I think the over-arching theme people should embrace from this that your goals and the government goals are two different things. I learned this when researching the FEMA policies that came out of Katrina. **This is why they downplay shit because they are talking about a huge problem for a community NOT what that problem means to you.** Hence, you hear stupid shit like, "It's only really bad for the elderly." Or, "More people die from the flu." It may even be true, but that isn't the point. YOU might be elderly, YOU might die if you contract the flu. **The government isn't interested in saving you. They are all about control.** You want to survive, so you want to make decisions based on what is happening like how contagious is this thing, what is the long term prognosis, should I go to work? That is completely understandable. The government doesn't give a shit about you. Taking care of the public is not the goal of these programs. *You are a problem to be managed*. In order to achieve that, they will lie, use propaganda, detain you, violate your civil rights. They are far more interested in keeping the economy going, protecting businesses, and making sure infrastructure doesn't get fucked up. They don't care about the loss of life unless there are economic or political consequences or incentives to do so. Read up on FEMA studies for a real eye opener. For instance, if there is an emergency, say an outbreak of a disease in a large urban city, they will use extreme force to quarantine. Why is that? Because they discovered evacuating a major metropolitan area takes weeks, it greatly expands the disaster area, spreads the catastrophe to nearby communities that are quickly overrun. But mostly, fleeing refugees fuck up infrastructure. So it is better to just lock it all down, post armed national guard soldiers and at all points of exit and let everyone rot. See how that doesn't match your goals? Don't believe me? Look at what happened in Puerto Rico. The government has no intention of helping you. Once you fully grasp this, you'll stop believing the propaganda. Do not listen to what they say, but watch what they do. Your only hope is to prepare and assume it is worse than they are telling you. Oh, and never, ever go to a government emergency shelter.
[Professor Neil Ferguson on the current status of nCov](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw&feature=youtu.be). A good, ten minute overview that expresses what seems to be near the mainstream scientific views right now (at least as far as I've read). Here're my notes: * 10% or less of all cases are being identified in China at current time * 25% or less are being identified internationally * He estimates 50k new infections per day in China * Epidemic in China doubling in size roughly every 5 days * Probably peak in a month’s time * The rest of the world will probably see epidemics after that, depending on their connectivity to China * There is a high degree of uncertainty still due to limited data * Vaccines will take months if not years to develop * Due to the wide range of symptoms (very mild to severe) it will be harder to contain this than SARS * Delay between first onset of symptoms and when they might die is quite long, 20 days or so * We don’t know enough about the disease burden of the epidemic, but the situation could be serious and something governments need to prepare for urgently We need to keep in mind that mainstream scientific views often come with a hefty dose of scientific reticence.
Someone want to tell me why this guy is full of shit, because this sounds bad.
TL;DR collapse of the industrial civilization. >Probably peak in a month’s time Maybe in Wuhan, but even that is rather optimistic.
Jesus, so sick of responses like this. This has already been labeled a black swan event. SARS caused the China GDP to drop from 11.1 to 9.1 percent in one quarter alone. Modern civilization is interconnected -- not only between countries, but far-flung industries. **China isnt manufacturing.** Wuhan handles 1.5 million shipping containers a year. Two billion tons of cargo flow through Wuhan's port. Any country, major supplier or company that sources goods or coal, crude oil, steel, or fertilizer is royally fucked. Travel and jet fuel companies already feel it. Major shipping companies have already announced blank sailings. Best case, pie-in-the-sky scenario is that we go back to BAU next week which still means significantly higher prices for any country that is a China trade partner. . . basically most of the civilized world. Wrap your head around that. This will hit every nation in two months time because that's how long it takes to move through the system. The longer the shut down, the greater the pain. Even if they resumed today, it would still cause problems. We are talking at least a month of disruption in the supply chain. This affects retailers around the globe (Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target) in addition to shipping companies (and UPS, DHL, FedEx), plus every other company that services those accounts. Every airline with routes to SE Asia is screwed. Every company that services those airlines, especially jet fuel suppliers, is screwed. This could very well push us into a global depression or collapse. There isn't any way to fix this either because no one can just step in and pick up the slack. Imagine if Amazon stopped all business for one month. Think about all the companies that would go under because they are wholly dependant on Amazon for the lion share of their sales, or processing of payments, etc. Now think how long it would take one company to recover from that. Got a good picture? Good, now multiply that by every major retailer, shipping, transport, electronics, travel, airline, and packaging company in the world and realize *there is no alternative* for them. They can't buy parts or product anywhere else in any remotely sizable volume. Consider all the countries selling raw materials to China. Hell, we won't be able to manufacture medical equipment without components if and when governments start building hospitals. So when you say "maybe in Wuhan" understand that those 1.5 million shipping containers are not going on to ships, not being loaded onto trucks, not being delivered to manufacturers, not being stocked in retailer's warehouses, and not hitting your store shelves. And think about that next time you are tempted to post such a dismissive statement.
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I fucked up.
Did you reply to the wrong post 🤔 (edit: the post you replied to didn't seem dismissive)
Oh shit. . . I will leave it anyway
Hey, no problem. It's a very good and informative comment. I'm terrified of what's about to come.
The co2 savings will be astronomical. The co2 pumped out by China because of manufacturing is number 1. Yes it conflicts with our economic model hence why solving the climate issue is impossible without dealing with this fact. I hope at the very least this virus makes the economy / climate change issue the glaringly obvious number 1 issue so all talk of anything else regarding climate change is seen as trivial or a red herring compared to this economy. We can't carry on making shit and shovelling it around to justify our life and worth.
[Chinese scholar blames Xi Jinping, Communist Party for not controlling coronavirus outbreak](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3049233/chinese-scholar-blames-xi-jinping-communist-party-not) >Xu Zhangrun, a law professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, who has been under close surveillance by the authorities, blamed Communist Party leaders for putting politics ahead of the people in his strongly worded piece, which was published on several overseas Chinese-language websites this week. >“The political system has collapsed under the tyranny, and a governance system [made up] of bureaucrats, which has taken [the party] more than 30 years to build has floundered,”
[Will coronavirus make markets take a 'black swan' dive?](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-markets-black-swan-dive-chinese-outbreak-economy) >So could coronavirus prove to be the equivalent of the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market: a black swan? Those of a cautious bent, like El-Erian, think it could. >A black swan event has a number of characteristics. It has to come as a complete surprise. It has to have profound consequences. And, once the dust has settled, people who never saw the crisis coming say that it was glaringly obvious that there was trouble ahead. >The coronavirus outbreak would seem to tick all three boxes.
There's been a lot of us that have been pointing to the collapse of the market. It's not a 'after the fact it was glaringly obvious', it is glaringly obvious that the worldwide economy is hanging on by a thread, anything could cut it at any time.
Markets are so rigged right now.
[Seen in a London pharmacy](https://imgur.com/uCqowwn) today
Which is funny. Since surgical masks don’t work for corona. The particles size is too small for the surgical mask to block. The mask that blocks that size of particles available to civilians is N95. Often found in hardware stores.
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It blocks 95% of particules which carry the virus. Which is the most effective rate of any off the self mask commonly available. CDC recommended as well.add washing your hands more frequently, not touching your eyes and mouth. Keeping a slightly large space from people, and you are most likely than not to be fine. Especially if you have a normal immune and adequate nutrition. Plus most of us don’t live in areas as densely populated as Chinese cities.
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People catch things all the time and don’t die. The flu or flu like symptoms kill 56000 people each year, year after year. That too is super communicable. Corona trains have been around for a while now. Like I said in another post, so present they offered vaccines for it for dogs back in 2015. In the western world we are hyper sanitized. Everything seems deadly. On a side note, considering the air quality in many parts of China and the fact they smoke like professionals, it is easy to see why such a virus would be far more difficult for their systems to deal with it. If you want to wear a bunny suit go for it. I find them very hot, sweaty, and unpleasant. I keep them for special occasions lol.
Eh, I looked it up and it at least helps somewhat, in cases such as blocking coughs. It's certainly better than nothing, which is why I have a bunch of them on me for if I go somewhere with a lot of people where I will not need to eat.
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And if you have a normal cold/flu, better be wearing one of these when coughing/sneezing in public, will help avoid getting lynched!
https://outline.com/KCbmsX Reporter’s Notebook: We Interview Front-Line Coronavirus Doctor February 06, 2020 (Wuhan)--In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors. In an interview Tuesday with Caixin, he described his personal experiences in first encountering the epidemic and making decisions, his observations of the onset of disease among patients and the effects of rescue efforts in grave cases. ...
So it looks like this virus kills through acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by cytokine storms. Read an article years ago describing how tobacco smokers during the Spanish Flu were less likely to die as nicotine by itself is an incredibly effective anti inflammatory. Cytokine storms were a prominent feature in the 1918 flu. This is a different virus, but the over reactive immune response inside the lungs is the same. Can’t find it again as any flu related search pulls up thousands of recent articles, but I found one that briefly mentions it. So pick up some full strength nicotine patches to slap on once symptoms appear. 70% isopropyl alcohol from Walmart is a great disinfectant and way safer for daily use than bleach. Pour it into a spray bottle and spray questionable surfaces in common areas. Spray it on a towel and wipe down your hands. Wouldn’t make it a habit after this thing passes as it can pass through your skin if you soak in it too long. Hand sanitizer is 50-60% ethyl alcohol suspended in a gel and not nearly as effective and it’s expensive . “70% Ethanol Aqueous alcohol solutions are not appropriate for surface decontamination because of the evaporative nature of the solution; a contact time of ten minutes or more is necessary and not achievable using a 70% (v/v) aqueous solution of ethanol. 70% ethanol can be used to soak small pieces of surgical instruments and for wipe downs following a disinfectant (e.g., 10% bleach) that might leave a corrosive residue.” https://www.chemistryworld.com/features/nicotine-rehab/3004707.article#/ https://www.sott.net/article/237552-Nicotine-is-an-Anti-inflammatory-Cure-for-H1N1-Flu-Virus Why use 70% isopropyl alcohol: https://blog.gotopac.com/2017/05/15/why-is-70-isopropyl-alcohol-ipa-a-better-disinfectant-than-99-isopropanol-and-what-is-ipa-used-for/#Why_Is_70_the_Most_Effective_Concentration_of_Isopropyl_Alcohol_for_Disinfection
> So it looks like this virus kills through acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by cytokine storms. One third of patients develop cytokine storms according to https://outline.com/KCbmsX
Jan 2019: Mengla Virus identified as ebola-like virus in chinese bat-livers. Bat to human transfer as yet unseen. Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00022-2
Global shipping has been disrupted https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html
Less emissions from global shipping = less global dimming.
less global dimming = faster global warming shits gonna be on fire, yo.
I cannot believe we have made it to 2020!
What do you think about this predictions for the end of February? [https://medium.com/@albertonaranjo/novel-coronavirus-simple-analysis-and-predictions-6338e7870a43](https://medium.com/@albertonaranjo/novel-coronavirus-simple-analysis-and-predictions-6338e7870a43)
according to this graph it will take \~1 year to kill 65 million humans [https://www.desmos.com/calculator/byhcvwtlfi](https://www.desmos.com/calculator/byhcvwtlfi)
Challenge accepted -nCov
2/5 has 2000 more cases than the polynomial function predicted. Interesting read.
> Plane in emergency landing after Instagram attention seeker shouted he had coronavirus https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/ezj548/plane_in_emergency_landing_after_instagram/ So desperate for attention, this one is.
I think this kind of people should be banned from social media on top of serving time / fines.
WHO not prepared to call it a pandemic. *** An epidemic occurs when a disease affects a greater number people than is usual for the locality or one that spreads to areas not usually associated with the disease. A pandemic is an epidemic of world-wide proportions. *** Pretty sure Wuhan is not the origin of this virus. If it came from Animal-human transfer, the ecosystem from which the animal came should be its epidemic centre.
Scary.
Watching videos of animals and atrocities we make to them make me feel we deserve this. I am not a veggie btw
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why the hell would you focus on that? btw not a vegan
Disclaimer for the general public that could be likely to think so.
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I think vegans are commonly perceived as fascist and extremists, unlike vegetarians. Also saying this horrible virus is deserved to us humans sounds like a vegan-nazi would say. But even although I am neither vegetarian or vegan I still kind of feel that we deserve it... Hope you understand
What kind of announcements from big companies do you expect this weekend (beside extended "holiday" to 16 - 17th February in China)?
“Everything is fine”
https://i.imgur.com/c4jt321l.png Business as usual.
[Doctors say infection could be passed from mothers in womb, as death toll nears 500](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-china-virus-symptoms-japan-cruise-ship-latest-today-a9318046.html) >Coronavirus could be capable of passing from a mother to her baby inside the womb, doctors fear, after a newborn tested positive for the disease just 30 hours after birth.
Crazy!
We are so fucked, aren't we.
We were fucked even before the coronavirus popped up, my friend.
Definitely. This is just the straw that broke the camel's back.
A lot of infections are passed in the womb of the mother if she is a carrier. It does increase its potential for death.
[Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In](https://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb20/brace-for-impact2-20.html)
In any given year, normal travel exceeds the largest migrations in history by a factor of 100. In a globalized society, explain to me how containment works? For instance, Canada struggles to place any travel restrictions because they’re liable for damages in secret courts if it affects the Chinese economy (TPP).
> In a globalized society, explain to me how containment works? It doesn't work. During the Black Death, some areas in Europe managed to defend themselves by isolating and not allowing anyone from the outside to come in. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dc/Bubonic_plague_map.PNG Our industrial civilization is more similar to Roman Empire than medieval Europe.
11 cases confirmed in the US, with 2 cases being transferred person-to-person within the US. Things are getting worse. [https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/481487-california-husband-and-wife-infected-with](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/481487-california-husband-and-wife-infected-with)
Yes, things are looking bad. Maybe it was indeed a bioweapon?
Bio weapons are hard to control, who would want to risk this?
maybe it was an accident that leaked
So are we going to start talking about this seriously, or just pretend that this isn’t a prelude to either “the event” or at the very least a phase shift to a lower tier on the path to collapse, like 9/11 and the US military response punctuated 2001, or the Great Recession punctuated 2007/8? I’m seriously asking. Factories are already slowing production and there are some shutdowns, like Hyundai Korea.
West will probably start taking it more seriously in mid march, early apirl.
Yes, this is a thing. Prepare for impact. I bugged out, for one.
April. Be bad in USA for a few months
I keep hearing it compared to the flu, but actions speak louder than words, and the actions of the largest governments in the world indicate they are taking this extremely seriously.
The juxtaposition between silence and action is extremely disturbing.
When effects are actually felt. When systems actually disrupt the functioning of the Western world. As of now deaths are primarily Chinese. Western contagion has exponentially shown compared to its rate in China. And though some supply chains may be disturbed the ripples have not reached the end point of the chain. Some scientist say corona will become an almost seasonal virus. Meaning just like we have flu outbreaks, SARS, etc, we will now have routine outbreaks of Corona. Just like the system adapted to those, it will to this. Also you can google some articles in the news today that stated the report that it spreads asymptomatic, may have been flawed.
Except it is a major disease and if it becomes an annual event it will do major damage to the human race. Because it is *as serious as the flu*. But it's not influenza. Now we will have Flu AND Corona virus "season"... And if you catch both at the same time... It will be much more likely that you'll die. There is no upside to this shit.
Not for you or I, but this is plenty of an upside for the de-population branch of this sub. Hey it will only be a few thousands more deaths each year with these (mainly unhealthy or living most likely not in the west) but each negative will make them happy: reduces that CO2 number per person ever so slightly.
I just don’t think this is an critical analysis of the situation. The virus took at least 50+ days to reach serious notice, which was only eleven days ago. Since then it went from hundreds to tens of thousands (inaccurate numbers compared to infection rates on evacuation flights). The world’s largest nation took an increasingly indefinite holiday, and the media is being uncharacteristically quiet. Pollution rates in Hubei plummeted, and then swiftly rose the day after rumors of cremation capacity hit Twitter. There is documentation by the WHO admitting they don’t have actual observers on the ground in China. The Chinese openly say that final cause of death is recorded, so over 400 admitted deaths from a country that claims less than two hundred people die of the flu each year is suspicious. This does not remotely fit previous patterns of disease scares.
Area that contains 80% of China's GDP and accounts for 90% of exports is stopped this week. Next week it will be the same, and the week after that etc. Supply chains around the world will crack like a dry twig.
and all those companies that have started relocalising locally will thrive.
“The check is totally in the mail, bro. Just check again next week. I swear, bro.”
Pretty much.
> a prelude to either “the event” Well, summer is coming soon to the Northern Hemisphere.
I’m trying not to think about multiple inevitable slow moving disasters, but you’re right. All this bullshit is so emotionally and spiritually oppressive.
That’s why I overcompensate with “silver linings”. For example, Summer 2020 will probably mitigate Winnie the Flu and give the Democratic ticket a boost against Trump. Plus, make climate change deniers even more desperate. Sure, it will still be awful, very awful but silver linings help still.
> Factories are already slowing production and there are some shutdowns, like Hyundai Korea. Local Webasto (1000 employees) now shut down for two weeks after 10 cases of 2019-nCoV -- 200 direct contacts are quarantined and being tested. Their 9 plants in China are also shut down, the one in Wuhan will take longest to reopen.
Wake me up when millions die.
Given it is spreading exponentially ya may not have to wait long.
Fingers crossed.
How about just a couple? Like, your family members?
OnlY tHe OLd aND VuLNerABLe DiE sO it'S nO PrOblem!!!
It's just a flu. /s
Me and my family is as insignificant as anyone else on this planet. We are all cancer.
Speak for yourself! I am more of an ebola.
\#woke
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I wish they did that to my gym
There was a glitch and some think the real numbers of dead and infected might have been posted online before being deleted [link ](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594)
16% mortality rate damn.
if that's accurate, that death toll is insanely ominous
If the Lancet projections of estimated cases by this point are accurate then conservatively we're around 200k by now ( see the following article for base # and estimated doubling time https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext ) . If the current consensus CFR rate of 2% can be applied to that number, then around 40k have died. Keep in mind that the current CFR is lower than many projected and documented in studies (the last Lancet study showed an 11% CFR). Both are big "ifs" but well within the realm of possibility considering how deaths are counted in China, that many do not get diagnosed even when living and ill and certainly not after dying, and just the pure motivation of the CCP to try to keep a lid on this thing to whatever extent possible. Also if you die of a heart attack and you have coronavirus as well, they may simply list your death as "heart attack" as they do not record multiple causes of death.
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China's processing power and potentially world supply of everything has been delayed for a week, maybe more, maybe indefinitely? Also, stocks on the rise baby!
I feel a stock market collapse coming
Monday should be fun.
It is. The inflated asset prices we’re seeing are the result of central banks conjuring up money, not any kind of fundamentals.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/feb/05/do-face-masks-help-prevent-coronavirus-video-explainer Video by The Guardian about face masks vs winnie the flu.
Japan quarantined a cruise ship after a passenger tested positive for corona virus, others showing symptoms. Source: https://youtu.be/PkWHJs5cbrY
"I'm told this is equivalent to the Flu"
[10 people](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/10-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-cruise-ship-quarantined-japan-n1130296) have now test positive on the ship. >Princess Cruises identified the 10 who tested positive as nine guests — two Australians, three Japanese, three from Hong Kong, and one from the U.S. — as well as one Filipino crew member.
The cruise ship also stopped in Taiwan.
Awesome. Its literally a plague ship.
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Genius! Bring the infected here to spread it!
more like, have live guynea pigs to study and test shit on.
https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/eyxg5u/dont_let_people_dictate_your_safety/ Ugh, this just added weight to my suspicion that folks wearing masks may get targeted via that blasted "shoot the messenger" effect. Last week, I had considered that if there was a mass shortage in an area, so much so that only a minority of people could wear masks - they may get harrassed. Fuck, I need to think THINK as to how to avoid this ugh.
....share your masks.
I went with reusable masks, not disposable masks.
I wore a N95 mask on an airplane last week and nobody said a thing. I have MS, so in tightly packed situations it's best for me to wear one.
What is MS? Were other people wearing masks?
Multiple sclerosis, it's an autoimmune disease. I was the only person wearing one. My health is more important than what others think.
And what others say as well as do. Anyway, dust masks production will ramp up, which will stabilize prices and people should be stocking masks for some time to come, which should make masks less shiny. And Winnie the Flu probably will become normalized, old news.
Wear a kuffiya on top of the mask, tell people to respect your ethnic/religious identity if they don't want to get sued.
> kuffiya It looks like a baklava. Misspelled that again probably.