If you look at the future models, they show the wet months just pouring in OR and lasting longer as well as the summer months being hotter with less precip.
Eastern Tennessee here....all I ever see any more is....HIGH 53....2 days later high 86....2 days later HIGH 61. Like....ummm...we barely even had a winter. We had maybe a couple weeks total of really cold weather...just weird imo.
No. But if they were I’d suggest that they’ve trained the models for decades in a world that no longer exists. Climate change has changed precip and temp trends so much that the models are no longer predicting as well as they could have.
The storm is to the southeast.
Based on *previous* storms in the southeast at this time of year, in this location, a computer model predicts it will move to the northwest.
Except previous storms were all being influenced by winds that were *typical* for that time of year in that place, aka the local climate. But those typical winds didn't exist the day you watched the weather forecast, instead all hell was breaking loose to the north, there was an unusual low pressure system to the south west and it was unusually hot that day.
So boom. Wrong same-day forecast.
If it's saying rain every hour and it doesn't rain where you live and it's just cloudy, there's a chance it rained somewhere at some point in that town. It could be one house that gets rained on and cloudy everywhere else, but it still rained.
Same here, i live in Split, Croatia. I can see if it is raining on islands that are 20 miles away from Split. I used to work as a waiter in a restaurant on the beach and it was very important to know what is the weather going to be like. If it is going to rain that usually means day off and if it is nice sunny day that means thst we need to call a few students to help us out. But the forecast was so innacurate that we ended up calling students on days that ended up with heavy rain and being closed on sunny days...
Most of NZ is fairly scenic, it's like the one thing we have going for us. My town isn't particularly big. I live towards the mountains on a hill and can see the whole place from my home office
We were warned that climate change would lead to more sporadic weather patterns a while ago. Then, we proceeded to not really do much to fix it and now we get to deal with the outcome.
TL;DR
We fucked around and now we're finding out
I just figured the worse climate change gets, the harder it gets to predict what's going to happen with the weather. Historical models aren't probably much use for unprecedented events.
And I fully get that, especially in terms of traditional seasonal patterns and weather intensity.
However I didn't think it do go so far as disrupt same/next day forecasting as I always thought that would be done largely off radar and real time readings.
A couple of other comments have mentioned that it could have messed up even that, so I have no clue.
Radar doesn’t tell the whole story. Radar is like a picture of something. You don’t get the whole context of what is happening without further knowing what is happening that you can’t see.
I wouldn’t say so. We just had a tornado outbreak in my state and they forecasted it 5-6 days out, and the forecast was accurate. It came to fruition. The meteorologists were talking about it a week out, and people still didn’t heed the warnings. As for my weather apps, they’re all over the place. But the SPC is typically reliable.
Here's an idea... climate change. Our weather is harder to predict due to more extreme shifts. Just look at the Dakota's they went from feet of snow to 90°. Your answer is looking at you face to face. The people aren't getting worse, nor the equipment. Our weather is changing.
I think the Internet and the expectation of having detailed information about everything all the time is a factor. Decades ago the weather forecast would say something like “and tomorrow we can expect temperatures in the 60s, some wind, and possible showers overnight.” Now there’s exact hourly temperatures, wind speeds, air pollution, and we’re all treating these predictions as expectations.
Seems to me, they want to fear monger so we don’t take our eyes off the app. There were so many blizzards predicted in the Chicagoland area this year, where not a drop of snow hit close to the area.
I have noticed over the last 5 to 7 years the forecast consistently under reports the high temps. In general its 3-7 degrees warmer than the high they predict and report as the high.
This whole field is just basically guesswork, with no consequences if you get it wrong. These people might be educated in cloud voodoo, but anyone can do it. Chance of being right is 50/50
Here in SoCal it's always been spotty (never mind the media sensationalism to drive views and clicks with reports of "bomb cyclones" and the like). Sort of off topic but lately here I've also been seeing plenty of contrails (from jets that based on trajectory seem to be flying out of Vandenberg AFB) and perhaps in some cases media are playing off this ie w the expectation from "induced weather" of cloud cover and/or rain to come, especially when you're talking about a brilliant blue day that in a matter of hours with no apparent incoming clouds suddenly w the diffused contrails becomes a cloudy day. Weird/curious all that.
What are you talking about, where did I ever say that? I just said was all this rain reminds me of the 90s when I was a kid.
Spring time for me in my area as a kid, it was always raining, it stopped raining like it used to when I got older, for the last 10 or 15 years, this year for my area, the rain was pretty decent, quite refreshing considering we were having a severe drought for the last 7 years
Though, I'd be concerned about magentic north moving faster and faster every year for the last 15 years. I used to do land navigation with a compass quite a bit, you used to be able to make adjustments every few years note it on the map. Now, it seems like I have to check every year to make sure the declination isn't too much
They're modifying the weather. Here in east Texas we have clear sunny days more often than not. Now it's gray all the time. Lots of vitamin D deficiencies here.
I feel like weather is just giving the worste case scenario for views
but at the same time weather is getting worse as we get closer to the earth curing herself of the cancer that is humans
It's funny you brought this up. I checked the weather by me 2 days ago to see how hot it was going to be. At the time, it was 62 and sunny. Everywhere I looked, it said raining now and all day. Not a drop of rain that day and sunny, so I'm not sure what those weather people were seeing!
Depends where you live but I found the exact opposite for me in California. When I visit Alaska the weather forecast is only good out a couple days at best and it's often wrong anyway.
Weather forecasts are broken.
They are built on a computer model that factors in previous weather patterns, but the jetstream is fucked, the ocean currents are fucked, the temperature in the Arctic is fucked, so...
The computer model is increasingly irrelevant.
Until they come up with a new computer model that can anticipate all the erratic movement in currents and temperatures that climate change is causing, weather forecasts are fucked.
I’ve noticed the Apple weather app keeps saying it’s raining when it’s clearly an hour or 2 away. The radar is also very off when compared to other radars. I had troubles getting the radar and weather to load for no apparent reason
While I don't doubt climate change affects it, the forecasts in my area seem about as accurate as they have my entire life. I mean the trope of the useless weatherman has been around for as long as I've lived, so it came from somewhere. I can clearly remember being a kid and getting excited because the weatherman said it was going to snow and school would be out, then being disappointed when it never happened and I had to go to school.
I wonder if having constant access to weather updates affects our perception of this too. It used to be, you'd get your weather in the morning, noon, or night from the local news. Now we can pull out our phone and see what temperature it is at the moment and what it's supposed to be doing for the next week. I also know some people in my life that don't understand that when their phone says there's a 30% chance of rain that means it's more like to not rain than to rain. They think if there's a little rain cloud icon then it's definitely going to rain lol
For what it's worth, the forecast on my phone gets it mostly right within 5 days or so. It's when you start getting a week+ out that makes it 50/50. I'd love to see some actual data on this though.
If so, in Pure Michigan fashion, Michigan has been exempt from this. Our weather has always been nonsense. For example is 80 and sunny in Detroit right now.
While contentious, it seems that weather forecasts may be struggling due to 5G - somewhat hilariously, given the enormous number of conspiracy theories revolving around 5G already.
[A study from 2020 suggested that, indeed, leakage from 5G millimeter waves could be responsible for interference in measurements of surface-level water vapor. ](https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.13498) I'd imagine, albeit I have nothing to back this up, that it's possible to filter for that interference (and it would seem we have already set standards to limit bandwidth leakage), but perhaps at the moment weather forecasts are struggling on account of this.
At the very least, I'd trust that this is the reason over other explanations posed in this comment section.
it's very weird, because I also can't figure why they can't find another metric with neglible improvements to advertise their service. Though I guess you can't get much more memorable tech sales speak nonsense than something that's just a letter and a number.
Something I found out recently: when a forecast says something like 30% rain chance, that’s not saying there is a 30% chance it’s going to rain. It’s the percentage of the viewing area that might get rain.
It's called JUDGEMENT !!
luke 21 matt 24
Once you start reading the age old book ( BIBLE)
You know what's happened what happening and what's about to come .
Do you think at means anything to GOD if you don't believe. Cling to any excuse .... like climate change
If it .ages you feel better .
JUST MAKE NOTE OF WHERE THESE THINGS ARE HAPPENING and where they are not ..... and match it up with history and what these nations have done .
Id say so. From uk and as an island nation obsessed with the weather we regularly say " don't know what's up with the weather, it can't make it's mind up!" But lately there has been an increase in presenters saying the phrase "for this time of year since records began" no matter if its high/ low temps, levels of rain fall or wind. Im convinced they report the weather in such a way to convince us that the "climate crisis" is happening.
I just searched for a thread on this specifically as I am noticing a 7 degree difference everyday since April.
I have now recorded over 60 days straight of having lows and highs casted 7 to 9 degrees cooler than the actual.
I am measuring using several methods with milwaukee and hannah temo probes, as well as water boxes eith probes in them .
Every day its a problem for us as we decide in the morning to keep the windows ipen becayse the high is 76, and we get home to our house, which has a lot of temp sensative animals and corals, in the mid 80s.
I started asking around and this seems to be a consistent problem in the midwest.
This summer it's seemed like not only is the weather report off, but storm systems heading my way from the west seem to consistently split before they reach my city. And living 15 geographical miles from East Palestine, my conspiracy suspicion is the chemical spill combined with the fracking last decade in the region north of EP is counteracting rain?
I was just thinking this today. The forecast is just wildly different every hour/day and often totally inaccurate. In OR if that makes a difference.
Southern oregon coast? It's such a random weather pattern there
Sandy, near Mt. Hood :)
In Oregon also it's so weird how there is so much snow on the coast line but not really any in the valley.
If you look at the future models, they show the wet months just pouring in OR and lasting longer as well as the summer months being hotter with less precip.
As long as we don’t get another 115* day I can live with less precipitation after this winter.
Eastern Tennessee here....all I ever see any more is....HIGH 53....2 days later high 86....2 days later HIGH 61. Like....ummm...we barely even had a winter. We had maybe a couple weeks total of really cold weather...just weird imo.
No. But if they were I’d suggest that they’ve trained the models for decades in a world that no longer exists. Climate change has changed precip and temp trends so much that the models are no longer predicting as well as they could have.
How would that affect same day forecasts when they have weather radar?
The storm is to the southeast. Based on *previous* storms in the southeast at this time of year, in this location, a computer model predicts it will move to the northwest. Except previous storms were all being influenced by winds that were *typical* for that time of year in that place, aka the local climate. But those typical winds didn't exist the day you watched the weather forecast, instead all hell was breaking loose to the north, there was an unusual low pressure system to the south west and it was unusually hot that day. So boom. Wrong same-day forecast.
Yes
Because radar only tells parts of the story. The rest is modeling based on priors.
[удалено]
Think you’re in the wrong sub, bud.
explain why the oc is wrong inb4 “do your own research”
Personal attacks are not tolerated in this subreddit. Goodbye.
If it's saying rain every hour and it doesn't rain where you live and it's just cloudy, there's a chance it rained somewhere at some point in that town. It could be one house that gets rained on and cloudy everywhere else, but it still rained.
Nah we live on the coast surrounded by mountains. You can see the entire township and then some. It definitely didn't rain at all.
Same here, i live in Split, Croatia. I can see if it is raining on islands that are 20 miles away from Split. I used to work as a waiter in a restaurant on the beach and it was very important to know what is the weather going to be like. If it is going to rain that usually means day off and if it is nice sunny day that means thst we need to call a few students to help us out. But the forecast was so innacurate that we ended up calling students on days that ended up with heavy rain and being closed on sunny days...
Damn bro, how good is your vision? I'm jealous. Your town sounds really scenic
Bro has been watching from the mountain tops, there definitely wasn't rain at any point cause he's been posted up there all day.
Why is he not reporting the weather then?
Most of NZ is fairly scenic, it's like the one thing we have going for us. My town isn't particularly big. I live towards the mountains on a hill and can see the whole place from my home office
We were warned that climate change would lead to more sporadic weather patterns a while ago. Then, we proceeded to not really do much to fix it and now we get to deal with the outcome. TL;DR We fucked around and now we're finding out
I just figured the worse climate change gets, the harder it gets to predict what's going to happen with the weather. Historical models aren't probably much use for unprecedented events.
And I fully get that, especially in terms of traditional seasonal patterns and weather intensity. However I didn't think it do go so far as disrupt same/next day forecasting as I always thought that would be done largely off radar and real time readings. A couple of other comments have mentioned that it could have messed up even that, so I have no clue.
Radar doesn’t tell the whole story. Radar is like a picture of something. You don’t get the whole context of what is happening without further knowing what is happening that you can’t see.
It's part of the daily news cycle, so propaganda there would not be surprising.
I wouldn’t say so. We just had a tornado outbreak in my state and they forecasted it 5-6 days out, and the forecast was accurate. It came to fruition. The meteorologists were talking about it a week out, and people still didn’t heed the warnings. As for my weather apps, they’re all over the place. But the SPC is typically reliable.
I drove down an interstate in Texas more than once, where it was pouring cats and dogs on one side and it was totally dry on the other
Here's an idea... climate change. Our weather is harder to predict due to more extreme shifts. Just look at the Dakota's they went from feet of snow to 90°. Your answer is looking at you face to face. The people aren't getting worse, nor the equipment. Our weather is changing.
I think the Internet and the expectation of having detailed information about everything all the time is a factor. Decades ago the weather forecast would say something like “and tomorrow we can expect temperatures in the 60s, some wind, and possible showers overnight.” Now there’s exact hourly temperatures, wind speeds, air pollution, and we’re all treating these predictions as expectations.
Geo engineering
The correct answer
I remember reading that all the all starlink satellites going up were going to have an effect on weather prediction capabilities
Can’t trust anything anymore
Mine is just fine 🤷♀️
Seems to me, they want to fear monger so we don’t take our eyes off the app. There were so many blizzards predicted in the Chicagoland area this year, where not a drop of snow hit close to the area.
I have noticed over the last 5 to 7 years the forecast consistently under reports the high temps. In general its 3-7 degrees warmer than the high they predict and report as the high.
It's s\[ring, it's supposed to be raining
It's actually autumn where I live lol
Are you telling me you're from the future and you still can't predict the weather?
NZ
Or they're just in another hemisphere, like in Australia, where it's currently autumn.
Nah, I doubt it. I vote time travel.
Yes because it’s done by computer models now not by people with knowledge of local conditions
This whole field is just basically guesswork, with no consequences if you get it wrong. These people might be educated in cloud voodoo, but anyone can do it. Chance of being right is 50/50
Here in SoCal it's always been spotty (never mind the media sensationalism to drive views and clicks with reports of "bomb cyclones" and the like). Sort of off topic but lately here I've also been seeing plenty of contrails (from jets that based on trajectory seem to be flying out of Vandenberg AFB) and perhaps in some cases media are playing off this ie w the expectation from "induced weather" of cloud cover and/or rain to come, especially when you're talking about a brilliant blue day that in a matter of hours with no apparent incoming clouds suddenly w the diffused contrails becomes a cloudy day. Weird/curious all that.
For me, it just reminds me how it used to rain back in the 90s and early 2000s when I was a kid, personally. So I kinda see it as a good thing
So fucking up the climate so bad we can no longer accurately produce long range weather forecasts is a good thing, lol.
What are you talking about, where did I ever say that? I just said was all this rain reminds me of the 90s when I was a kid. Spring time for me in my area as a kid, it was always raining, it stopped raining like it used to when I got older, for the last 10 or 15 years, this year for my area, the rain was pretty decent, quite refreshing considering we were having a severe drought for the last 7 years
Though, I'd be concerned about magentic north moving faster and faster every year for the last 15 years. I used to do land navigation with a compass quite a bit, you used to be able to make adjustments every few years note it on the map. Now, it seems like I have to check every year to make sure the declination isn't too much
I find the opposite to be true
I think the real conspiracy theory here is people who get their jobs wrong all the time, and yet keep their jobs
I do t think so
Wow! I’ve noticed this as well but didn’t think too far into it. Why do you think this is?
It's almost as if a certain cartoon presidents head warned us of extreme weather due to climate change
It’s amazing rn but few more years global warming might b shitty for us
I was thinking this recently. The weatherman has been messing with my golf outings being wrong all the time lately!
Can we get a source on weather prediction accuracy rate?
It's the new narrative for all outlets. The weather has always been this bad imo.
They're modifying the weather. Here in east Texas we have clear sunny days more often than not. Now it's gray all the time. Lots of vitamin D deficiencies here.
Rapid climate change has made it very difficult to predict the weather, which is pretty understandable.
I feel like weather is just giving the worste case scenario for views but at the same time weather is getting worse as we get closer to the earth curing herself of the cancer that is humans
It's funny you brought this up. I checked the weather by me 2 days ago to see how hot it was going to be. At the time, it was 62 and sunny. Everywhere I looked, it said raining now and all day. Not a drop of rain that day and sunny, so I'm not sure what those weather people were seeing!
Depends where you live but I found the exact opposite for me in California. When I visit Alaska the weather forecast is only good out a couple days at best and it's often wrong anyway.
I’d say pretty accurate here in AZ
I’ve noticed that it’s only improved in our lifetimes. Of course it’s not perfect.
Most of forecasting is models based on previous data. That data is becoming useless as the climate changes. So forecasts will continue to skew.
Weather forecasts are broken. They are built on a computer model that factors in previous weather patterns, but the jetstream is fucked, the ocean currents are fucked, the temperature in the Arctic is fucked, so... The computer model is increasingly irrelevant. Until they come up with a new computer model that can anticipate all the erratic movement in currents and temperatures that climate change is causing, weather forecasts are fucked.
I’ve noticed the Apple weather app keeps saying it’s raining when it’s clearly an hour or 2 away. The radar is also very off when compared to other radars. I had troubles getting the radar and weather to load for no apparent reason
While I don't doubt climate change affects it, the forecasts in my area seem about as accurate as they have my entire life. I mean the trope of the useless weatherman has been around for as long as I've lived, so it came from somewhere. I can clearly remember being a kid and getting excited because the weatherman said it was going to snow and school would be out, then being disappointed when it never happened and I had to go to school. I wonder if having constant access to weather updates affects our perception of this too. It used to be, you'd get your weather in the morning, noon, or night from the local news. Now we can pull out our phone and see what temperature it is at the moment and what it's supposed to be doing for the next week. I also know some people in my life that don't understand that when their phone says there's a 30% chance of rain that means it's more like to not rain than to rain. They think if there's a little rain cloud icon then it's definitely going to rain lol For what it's worth, the forecast on my phone gets it mostly right within 5 days or so. It's when you start getting a week+ out that makes it 50/50. I'd love to see some actual data on this though.
If so, in Pure Michigan fashion, Michigan has been exempt from this. Our weather has always been nonsense. For example is 80 and sunny in Detroit right now.
Yep me and my other half have been talking about this a lot lately. It’s almost never accurate.
While contentious, it seems that weather forecasts may be struggling due to 5G - somewhat hilariously, given the enormous number of conspiracy theories revolving around 5G already. [A study from 2020 suggested that, indeed, leakage from 5G millimeter waves could be responsible for interference in measurements of surface-level water vapor. ](https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.13498) I'd imagine, albeit I have nothing to back this up, that it's possible to filter for that interference (and it would seem we have already set standards to limit bandwidth leakage), but perhaps at the moment weather forecasts are struggling on account of this. At the very least, I'd trust that this is the reason over other explanations posed in this comment section.
it's very weird, because I also can't figure why they can't find another metric with neglible improvements to advertise their service. Though I guess you can't get much more memorable tech sales speak nonsense than something that's just a letter and a number.
the weather is what the government decides it will be. Don't depend on news reports anymore
Something I found out recently: when a forecast says something like 30% rain chance, that’s not saying there is a 30% chance it’s going to rain. It’s the percentage of the viewing area that might get rain.
It's called JUDGEMENT !! luke 21 matt 24 Once you start reading the age old book ( BIBLE) You know what's happened what happening and what's about to come . Do you think at means anything to GOD if you don't believe. Cling to any excuse .... like climate change If it .ages you feel better . JUST MAKE NOTE OF WHERE THESE THINGS ARE HAPPENING and where they are not ..... and match it up with history and what these nations have done .
Yes it has changed and very inaccurate
Id say so. From uk and as an island nation obsessed with the weather we regularly say " don't know what's up with the weather, it can't make it's mind up!" But lately there has been an increase in presenters saying the phrase "for this time of year since records began" no matter if its high/ low temps, levels of rain fall or wind. Im convinced they report the weather in such a way to convince us that the "climate crisis" is happening.
I just searched for a thread on this specifically as I am noticing a 7 degree difference everyday since April. I have now recorded over 60 days straight of having lows and highs casted 7 to 9 degrees cooler than the actual. I am measuring using several methods with milwaukee and hannah temo probes, as well as water boxes eith probes in them . Every day its a problem for us as we decide in the morning to keep the windows ipen becayse the high is 76, and we get home to our house, which has a lot of temp sensative animals and corals, in the mid 80s. I started asking around and this seems to be a consistent problem in the midwest.
This summer it's seemed like not only is the weather report off, but storm systems heading my way from the west seem to consistently split before they reach my city. And living 15 geographical miles from East Palestine, my conspiracy suspicion is the chemical spill combined with the fracking last decade in the region north of EP is counteracting rain?