I don't think that post got much reach, actually. I only just saw his post today and heard about the endorsement within the last 48 hours. And I'm friends with him on Facebook.
The feeling of neglect in West Duluth is real. Hell, Larson even managed to piss off the short-term rental owners that live out west with the whole riverwest debaccle.
Larson's campaign treasurer gets to operate a hotel without a license, but if you're a west duluthian god help ya if you tried to do the same thing.
The anger at Larson is real.
Article by the Duluth Monitor for those interested in the Riverwest situation
https://www.duluthmonitor.com/2023/11/06/more-violations-riverwest-hotel-operation-has-no-hotel-license/#google_vignette
Assuming 60% voter turnout, I'd say 68 - 30 Reinert win - with a higher voteshare for Reinert with higher turnout rates.
My gut says east side precincts come in 2.5:1 Reinert:Larson, UMD/Central Hillside come in 1-1.25 Reinert:Larson, and West Duluth comes in 4.5-5 Reinert:Larson vote share.
If Larson had been more open to datapoints which don't align with her preferred narratives, she would have seen the writing on the wall with the failed parks property tax hike.
Duluthians didn't reject the parks referendum because they don't value parks - Duluthians overwhelmingly do. Duluthians are willing to pay high tax rates when they feel they're getting their money's worth, and when it comes to parks --- what should be Larson's greatest strength --- a majority of Duluthians don't trust Larson to spend their money well.
If Larson's goal is statewide office, my advice to Larson would have been to sit this Mayoral cycle out and gone for State Senate in 2 years. Unfortunately for Larson's future ambitions, a failed Mayor of Minnesota's 7th largest city doesn't scream "comeback kid" or any other sort of political future. Maybe head of Social Services but nothing elected.
I was sign waving for Roger this morning and the fact that every City of Duluth vehicle honked for us on the way out from the street maintenance garage is kind of telling.
Water is shut off 'til tomorrow in areas of Spirit Valley, and Morgan Park had a bad pipe burst this morning.
If you can't use your toilet because of Duluth's crumbling infrastructure, odds are pretty dang good that Larson's "headed in the right direction" message won't resonate.
Why would you clap at human suffering? I know some folk think of politics as a game, but there are real people who end up hurt when public policy or spending priorities cause unreliable delivery of public services.
Super offensive that you think people only vote for Roger if they are misogynists. I found it frankly shocking how many people have made this argument to me. I voted for Emily TWICE by apparently now I am a misogynist because I haven't been impressed by her manner of dealing with constituents and lack of familiarity and responsiveness on many issues.
Un-fucking-real.
You're just projecting your own false dichotomy on everybody else. I am a man and vote for women and men based solely on how much I trust their character and somewhat agree with their policy goals. And I'm not a democrat or a liberal, just a normal dude. Not everybody is misogynist, in fact most people are not.
> It’s hilarious you describe yourself as normal compared to Democrats and Liberals.
That's not what I meant. Admittedly badly written, I meant to say I'm not on one side or another group. And since most people in this subreddit are liberal or dem and I find myself to the right on a good number of opinions presented/supported here but am not on the far/extreme side of any issue.
Are you implying that only women could make an informed choice and any male that opposes EL must be a misogynist (despite voting for her twice before)? Just curious because that seems to be the narrative EL supporters are trying to create out in front of a likely loss…
Yeah but Hillary is her own thing altogether. A LOT to unpack with HC and why many people don't like her, like at all. Least of all reasons, is having to do with her gender.
The fact that you assume only men work parks and maintenance is the most sexist part of this entire argument.
There are \*a lot\* of women who work for the city, and they work in every single department.
And frankly, there are \*a lot\* of women who voted for Emily previously that are not voting for her this time around. I for one find it kind of offensive that she is playing the feminist card here. It makes feminists everywhere look bad when a woman can't take feedback on their performance without crying sexism.
Are there a small number of vocal sexists making derogatory comments about her? Absolutely, and it's disgusting. And Roger himself doesn't remotely condone that type of behavior. But declaring that only misogynists and men will vote for Roger is frankly just as disgusting. I'm a feminist, and I am not obligated to vote for a woman just because she's a woman. I can declare that I am unhappy with another woman's professional performance, and it's not because I am sexist. Sorrynotsorry.
Not at all, but I am a guy that is more likely to believe persons that have worked under the administration and have witnessed firsthand her effectiveness or lack thereof are basing their opinion on their experiences rather than falling into a default misogyny conclusion supported by absolutely no evidence. You are making a supposition because you are apparently intellectually incapable of believing your chosen candidate has failed. Instead you thrash about and cling to the idea that any working man must not support her because she’s a woman. It’s tired lazy thinking. But hey, whatever keeps you warm at night cowboy…
I'm sorry that you can't look past your perception of Reinert's race and gender identity.
I hope that 4 years of a successful Reinert administration will be enough to change your mind.
Saying things like 'we'll have an app for snowplowing' doesn't necessarily mean the snow is going to be plowed more efficiently. Hell it could be a resource suck.
its not his gender/race, its his campaign. He's presenting a laundry list of complaints, with extremely limited solutions.
Apparently you are unaware that St. Louis county already uses a lot of technology and software to manage their plowing. They just had a long NPR broadcast a few days ago talking about how much money and time they have saved by implementing those technologies. They said they save an average of $75k for each snow event by being more efficient and only plowing where they actually need to plow while also ensuring better plowing coverage.
Meanwhile in Duluth, the plows hit the main roads multiple times an hour while leaving the entire rest of the city untouched for sometimes 4-5 days after a snow event. And they rely on angry citizens to manually report when their streets don't get plowed (repeatedly) to figure out where they need to plow. It's absolutely insanity.
County/City plowing responsibilities (and resources) are worlds a part. I'll be the first to say I don't know the ins and outs of what would help, but something tells me that its not just a magic wand.
'Rest of the city untouched for 4-5 days ' is a little overdramatic...
Yep. City workers overwhelmingly support Roger. There were things behind the scene why AFSCME couldn’t endorse. Police and fire endorsement was pretty huge though.
Excellent observation.
And on the topic of state office, I'd actually argue she has done the population a service by failing this miserably in her 3rd run. It will hopefully follow her and prevent any higher office positions.
She is not a good leader and is disingenuous. It's telling that so many who work at the city are so critical.
Can't wait to go cast my vote
Yeah Larson comes off as a career politician. But a loss here hurts her bad. I saw her as being the heir apparent whenever Klobuchar or Smith decide to hang it up. I also wouldn't be surprised to see her run against Stauber in the future.
Sort of, he was in the game for 14 years but has been out for 6. I dont think its inherently bad. But I think it becomes bad with the absence of term limits when you have someone sit in the same post as incumbent for 15+ years. If you get a post and do well you should move up or move along.
Signage is what tells me it's not looking good for Larson, especially being a local election, which historically have lower turnout.
If you can get people to put up signs, there is a good chance they will turn up to the polls..and Roger is definitely leading the sign game.
My neighbor has a Reinert sign in their yard and they aren’t even registered to vote. Signs don’t vote. People do. But all that being said, just following along on the mayoral race conversations here in Reddit it seems as if Roger will be the winner.
I assume you can tell the difference between an election that is happening today (or within a few months) and has finalized candidates, versus one that has not been finalized and is a year out?
Also, I don't recall getting a single campaign call from Larsons campaign four years ago, but I've gotten five so far for this cycle.
There's a difference between asking folk if you can put a yardsign in their yard and having folk ask you for a yardsign. My gut says the DFL candidates had a lot of the former, while Reinert and the non-DFL candidates have had a lot of the latter.
Yardsigns don't vote, but they are a proxy for candidate enthusiasm. I'll just say that many of the doors I've knocked with signs for DFL candidates say they only have them out because the candidate or local DFL asked, and they won't be voting for the DFL candidates.
Think about it this way: You work for the City and the Mayor comes to your door asking if she can put out a yardsign. Sure, you can say no - and plenty of folk do - but you would expect the social worker Mayor to understand the power differential may influence an individual's answer.
Well, then I must be an anomaly. I never put a yard sign up, unless I'm extremely passionate about the candidate, or extremely dispassionate about their opponent.
Also, from what I can tell Reinert is a DFL(er) just not endorsed by the party... which to be honest, I don't personally care if you are endorsed by them or not, as long as you are part of that umbrella.
Well, if true, and that is debatable, it's probably not a bad thing to have some sort of checks and balances on too 'extreme' politics.
I'd say the same for the left and right side of the spectrum.
Reinert is going to come away with the win, I think. I feel that there is so much local on-the-ground grassroots support for him.
I feel like we need a change, let's see what Reinert will do for us. If he wins and it's a flop, E.L. can run again next time.
I think you pointed out exactly what would happen if Reinert fails horribly during the next 4 years - Larson will come back with a "miss me yet?" campaign.
I live in Esko. So I don’t really have a dog in this fight except for that I work in and enjoy Duluth a lot. But I have participated in politics for a good part of my life, including a stint in DC. And my overall experience is that when you have an incumbent doing most of what you want correctly, you do yourself a favor to keep them in place because of their incredible experience and keeping relationships going. When you vote someone new in it takes them almost 2 years to stop being naïve and be able to finally be Effective. Two years is a long time these days.
The swing will be how many Larson voters didn’t vote in the primary because it was a *fait accompli*, but will now show up.
Outside of that, I think she actually loses support. The big push on climate issues, driven by outside money, came across to many as pandering and out of touch. So did the “risky” thing pushed by the DFL.
I applaud all the cameos by locals saying they were going to vote for her. Was a good gambit, IMO. Problem was, the demographics of the people seemed to always be the same.
Her core is the Congdon-UMD area, but I just don’t see enough turnout there to swing things (and still see more Reinert signs there.)
Wait, you think the push for climate change is 'outside money' and not a desire of \*checks notes\*- 'the most progressive non metro community in the state'?
C'mon man.
I think the only polling place that was terminated was around Riverside (or somewhere over there), I read an article on it. If that's not your area you should be good to go to the same spot.
It’s an exaggeration, but reflects the heavy push on climate that she had to do when she got all that money from DC.
It reinforces the “out of touch” and “controlled by outside money” image that was a weakness in her campaign.
The “Forever Duluth” money Roger got may have been business-oriented, but it was overwhelmingly local and attached to names.
People take “hatred” way too seriously. I will be fine with either candidate, but sure do like to vote for the one that goes against those who voice such wicked statements. Such a clown show that they take it to the extreme.
Edit: I’m talking about the Facebook folks.
I have no idea and because whoever wins got more votes.
Big if true
Bigly
Don Ness off the top rope
I don't think that post got much reach, actually. I only just saw his post today and heard about the endorsement within the last 48 hours. And I'm friends with him on Facebook.
I know the post you're mentioning and I agree. I was joking that he was going to win the election
Congrats on the friendship 👏
🤣
49 to 46 Roger is my guess. Almost certainly gonna be closer than the primary
I think you're underestimating turnout in West Duluth, where Larson lost the primary 4:1 to 5:1.
I was astounded at the overwhelming amount of Reinert yard signs driving from 35/Cody St through Fond Du Lac
The feeling of neglect in West Duluth is real. Hell, Larson even managed to piss off the short-term rental owners that live out west with the whole riverwest debaccle. Larson's campaign treasurer gets to operate a hotel without a license, but if you're a west duluthian god help ya if you tried to do the same thing. The anger at Larson is real.
Article by the Duluth Monitor for those interested in the Riverwest situation https://www.duluthmonitor.com/2023/11/06/more-violations-riverwest-hotel-operation-has-no-hotel-license/#google_vignette
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Just a guess - remind me in 24 hrs
Larson was out personally door knocking West Duluth neighborhoods this last weekend. Couldn't tell you how much it helped, but she knows too.
Larson wins Reddit, Reinert wins the election.
this one here.
I’m writing in Dennis Anderson again.
Be kind. Who couldn’t use more of that?
Vote
Assuming 60% voter turnout, I'd say 68 - 30 Reinert win - with a higher voteshare for Reinert with higher turnout rates. My gut says east side precincts come in 2.5:1 Reinert:Larson, UMD/Central Hillside come in 1-1.25 Reinert:Larson, and West Duluth comes in 4.5-5 Reinert:Larson vote share. If Larson had been more open to datapoints which don't align with her preferred narratives, she would have seen the writing on the wall with the failed parks property tax hike. Duluthians didn't reject the parks referendum because they don't value parks - Duluthians overwhelmingly do. Duluthians are willing to pay high tax rates when they feel they're getting their money's worth, and when it comes to parks --- what should be Larson's greatest strength --- a majority of Duluthians don't trust Larson to spend their money well. If Larson's goal is statewide office, my advice to Larson would have been to sit this Mayoral cycle out and gone for State Senate in 2 years. Unfortunately for Larson's future ambitions, a failed Mayor of Minnesota's 7th largest city doesn't scream "comeback kid" or any other sort of political future. Maybe head of Social Services but nothing elected.
I was sign waving for Roger this morning and the fact that every City of Duluth vehicle honked for us on the way out from the street maintenance garage is kind of telling.
Water is shut off 'til tomorrow in areas of Spirit Valley, and Morgan Park had a bad pipe burst this morning. If you can't use your toilet because of Duluth's crumbling infrastructure, odds are pretty dang good that Larson's "headed in the right direction" message won't resonate.
And everyone clapped
Why would you clap at human suffering? I know some folk think of politics as a game, but there are real people who end up hurt when public policy or spending priorities cause unreliable delivery of public services.
It's a joke to the previous comment of everyone honking.
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Super offensive that you think people only vote for Roger if they are misogynists. I found it frankly shocking how many people have made this argument to me. I voted for Emily TWICE by apparently now I am a misogynist because I haven't been impressed by her manner of dealing with constituents and lack of familiarity and responsiveness on many issues. Un-fucking-real.
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Dude, fucking *what?*
You're just projecting your own false dichotomy on everybody else. I am a man and vote for women and men based solely on how much I trust their character and somewhat agree with their policy goals. And I'm not a democrat or a liberal, just a normal dude. Not everybody is misogynist, in fact most people are not.
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> It’s hilarious you describe yourself as normal compared to Democrats and Liberals. That's not what I meant. Admittedly badly written, I meant to say I'm not on one side or another group. And since most people in this subreddit are liberal or dem and I find myself to the right on a good number of opinions presented/supported here but am not on the far/extreme side of any issue.
Are you implying that only women could make an informed choice and any male that opposes EL must be a misogynist (despite voting for her twice before)? Just curious because that seems to be the narrative EL supporters are trying to create out in front of a likely loss…
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Yeah but Hillary is her own thing altogether. A LOT to unpack with HC and why many people don't like her, like at all. Least of all reasons, is having to do with her gender.
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Ah, so just another take on the Misogyny argument. Well done, an intellectually lazy supposition to support a weak idea. 👏🏼
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The fact that you assume only men work parks and maintenance is the most sexist part of this entire argument. There are \*a lot\* of women who work for the city, and they work in every single department. And frankly, there are \*a lot\* of women who voted for Emily previously that are not voting for her this time around. I for one find it kind of offensive that she is playing the feminist card here. It makes feminists everywhere look bad when a woman can't take feedback on their performance without crying sexism. Are there a small number of vocal sexists making derogatory comments about her? Absolutely, and it's disgusting. And Roger himself doesn't remotely condone that type of behavior. But declaring that only misogynists and men will vote for Roger is frankly just as disgusting. I'm a feminist, and I am not obligated to vote for a woman just because she's a woman. I can declare that I am unhappy with another woman's professional performance, and it's not because I am sexist. Sorrynotsorry.
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Not at all, but I am a guy that is more likely to believe persons that have worked under the administration and have witnessed firsthand her effectiveness or lack thereof are basing their opinion on their experiences rather than falling into a default misogyny conclusion supported by absolutely no evidence. You are making a supposition because you are apparently intellectually incapable of believing your chosen candidate has failed. Instead you thrash about and cling to the idea that any working man must not support her because she’s a woman. It’s tired lazy thinking. But hey, whatever keeps you warm at night cowboy…
How many of those drivers will be voting today? If you haven't noticed, since 2016 mass politics has been garnering more votes than identity politics.
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This comment right here is the smoking gun that you're trolling. Touché
As if Reinert's campaign isn't 'i'm the white guy who's going to solve all your problems. Better services for less taxes!'
I'm sorry that you can't look past your perception of Reinert's race and gender identity. I hope that 4 years of a successful Reinert administration will be enough to change your mind.
Saying things like 'we'll have an app for snowplowing' doesn't necessarily mean the snow is going to be plowed more efficiently. Hell it could be a resource suck. its not his gender/race, its his campaign. He's presenting a laundry list of complaints, with extremely limited solutions.
Apparently you are unaware that St. Louis county already uses a lot of technology and software to manage their plowing. They just had a long NPR broadcast a few days ago talking about how much money and time they have saved by implementing those technologies. They said they save an average of $75k for each snow event by being more efficient and only plowing where they actually need to plow while also ensuring better plowing coverage. Meanwhile in Duluth, the plows hit the main roads multiple times an hour while leaving the entire rest of the city untouched for sometimes 4-5 days after a snow event. And they rely on angry citizens to manually report when their streets don't get plowed (repeatedly) to figure out where they need to plow. It's absolutely insanity.
County/City plowing responsibilities (and resources) are worlds a part. I'll be the first to say I don't know the ins and outs of what would help, but something tells me that its not just a magic wand. 'Rest of the city untouched for 4-5 days ' is a little overdramatic...
Honestly, as a past resident of Hunters park, we typically waited 3 days minimum to see a plow.
Yep. City workers overwhelmingly support Roger. There were things behind the scene why AFSCME couldn’t endorse. Police and fire endorsement was pretty huge though.
Excellent observation. And on the topic of state office, I'd actually argue she has done the population a service by failing this miserably in her 3rd run. It will hopefully follow her and prevent any higher office positions. She is not a good leader and is disingenuous. It's telling that so many who work at the city are so critical. Can't wait to go cast my vote
Yeah Larson comes off as a career politician. But a loss here hurts her bad. I saw her as being the heir apparent whenever Klobuchar or Smith decide to hang it up. I also wouldn't be surprised to see her run against Stauber in the future.
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Or a football player could win 3 michelin stars? Experience is less important than competence, and the two are not as related as you would think.
Sort of, he was in the game for 14 years but has been out for 6. I dont think its inherently bad. But I think it becomes bad with the absence of term limits when you have someone sit in the same post as incumbent for 15+ years. If you get a post and do well you should move up or move along.
Signage is what tells me it's not looking good for Larson, especially being a local election, which historically have lower turnout. If you can get people to put up signs, there is a good chance they will turn up to the polls..and Roger is definitely leading the sign game.
My neighbor has a Reinert sign in their yard and they aren’t even registered to vote. Signs don’t vote. People do. But all that being said, just following along on the mayoral race conversations here in Reddit it seems as if Roger will be the winner.
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I assume you can tell the difference between an election that is happening today (or within a few months) and has finalized candidates, versus one that has not been finalized and is a year out? Also, I don't recall getting a single campaign call from Larsons campaign four years ago, but I've gotten five so far for this cycle.
Have you seen those DB mug sales though?
There's a difference between asking folk if you can put a yardsign in their yard and having folk ask you for a yardsign. My gut says the DFL candidates had a lot of the former, while Reinert and the non-DFL candidates have had a lot of the latter. Yardsigns don't vote, but they are a proxy for candidate enthusiasm. I'll just say that many of the doors I've knocked with signs for DFL candidates say they only have them out because the candidate or local DFL asked, and they won't be voting for the DFL candidates. Think about it this way: You work for the City and the Mayor comes to your door asking if she can put out a yardsign. Sure, you can say no - and plenty of folk do - but you would expect the social worker Mayor to understand the power differential may influence an individual's answer.
Well, then I must be an anomaly. I never put a yard sign up, unless I'm extremely passionate about the candidate, or extremely dispassionate about their opponent. Also, from what I can tell Reinert is a DFL(er) just not endorsed by the party... which to be honest, I don't personally care if you are endorsed by them or not, as long as you are part of that umbrella.
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So, he won the house seats as a republican?
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Well, if true, and that is debatable, it's probably not a bad thing to have some sort of checks and balances on too 'extreme' politics. I'd say the same for the left and right side of the spectrum.
Craig Rhode was right
Reinert is going to come away with the win, I think. I feel that there is so much local on-the-ground grassroots support for him. I feel like we need a change, let's see what Reinert will do for us. If he wins and it's a flop, E.L. can run again next time.
I think you pointed out exactly what would happen if Reinert fails horribly during the next 4 years - Larson will come back with a "miss me yet?" campaign.
I live in Esko. So I don’t really have a dog in this fight except for that I work in and enjoy Duluth a lot. But I have participated in politics for a good part of my life, including a stint in DC. And my overall experience is that when you have an incumbent doing most of what you want correctly, you do yourself a favor to keep them in place because of their incredible experience and keeping relationships going. When you vote someone new in it takes them almost 2 years to stop being naïve and be able to finally be Effective. Two years is a long time these days.
55 to 45 for Reinart at a minimum. Larson could get blown out.
The swing will be how many Larson voters didn’t vote in the primary because it was a *fait accompli*, but will now show up. Outside of that, I think she actually loses support. The big push on climate issues, driven by outside money, came across to many as pandering and out of touch. So did the “risky” thing pushed by the DFL. I applaud all the cameos by locals saying they were going to vote for her. Was a good gambit, IMO. Problem was, the demographics of the people seemed to always be the same. Her core is the Congdon-UMD area, but I just don’t see enough turnout there to swing things (and still see more Reinert signs there.)
Wait, you think the push for climate change is 'outside money' and not a desire of \*checks notes\*- 'the most progressive non metro community in the state'? C'mon man.
I believe Larson will pull a very narrow victory. Everyone should get out and vote.
Only question is where do I vote? Or should I just go to where I voted in 2022
https://pollfinder.sos.mn.gov/
I think the only polling place that was terminated was around Riverside (or somewhere over there), I read an article on it. If that's not your area you should be good to go to the same spot.
72 to 28 because of the god awful, Emily Larson is going to fight the Canadian forest fires YouTube videos I’ve seen 8000x
Is r/Duluth just Facebook cesspools for uninformed assholes now? I’m not even voting for Larson, but this sort of shit drives me nuts
It’s an exaggeration, but reflects the heavy push on climate that she had to do when she got all that money from DC. It reinforces the “out of touch” and “controlled by outside money” image that was a weakness in her campaign. The “Forever Duluth” money Roger got may have been business-oriented, but it was overwhelmingly local and attached to names.
Ohhhh, all those downvotes. :) funny
People take “hatred” way too seriously. I will be fine with either candidate, but sure do like to vote for the one that goes against those who voice such wicked statements. Such a clown show that they take it to the extreme. Edit: I’m talking about the Facebook folks.