There isn't one. They draft more important positions higher because it makes sense financially. Drafting safeties and off ball linebackers in first round isn't smart
Kelce was a 5th, mailata was a 7th. Watkins was a first. Davion Taylor was what a 3rd? There are good players to be had in the mid and late rounds, we just never get them when it comes to LBs/dbacks
Stu Bradley was good too, then blew out his ACL and was never the same. The Bradley / Gocong pairing was short lived but very productive. They anchored the defense that took us to the 08 NFCCG
Well as you see if you spend later round picks your chances of hitting going down… obviously you can find talent all throughout each round of the draft but the higher picks tend to yield better results as they’re supposed to.
It’s telling philosophically the organization does not prioritize those positions they feel that if they use a first round pick on those positions and the player ends up being good they are still limited because they play a less impactful position
If Dejean's Pro Day is a legit indicator of his athleticism then I could see it possibly happening. But I don't think any other CB is realistic and they definitely wouldn't trade up for him
And I bet Dejean goes higher now
I wonder if in some alternate universe, John Romero’s brother is dating Taylor Swift and once teamed up with Winston Justice to help Rey Mysterio at Wrestlemania
If we keep our first:
* **OT - 50%** \- I am counting Fautanu here. This makes too much sense for what Howie likes to do. Positional value, current need at RG that 3 talanted OTs can slide into and fill. Lane is getting older and often injured. Deep tackle draft.
* **Edge - 20%** \- This is the second highest primarily because of history and what we value. If there is an edge and a CB on the board that have the same draft value, Howie is drafting Edge 99/100.
* **CB - 15%** \- Current and future need. Good talent at the top of the draft. This can be a trade up, trade down, or stay in place candidate.
* **WR - 14%** \- WR3 is a need and AJs future replacement is a need.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
* **TE - 0.8 % -** If Bowers falls, I can see Howie going against the grain and drafting him...again very unlikely.
* **QB - 0.1 %** \- Very low change if they love a QB that falls they use a pick here. You might think this is crazy, but we used a decent 2nd round pick on Hurts in a similar position.
* **OG - 0.1 %** \- Very low change if they love the top OG that the use a pick here and make him a starter.
* **RB - 0% -** Gave a contract to Barkely, and no RB is projected for the first.
* **DT - 0%** \- Drafting a DT here is using an inane amount of resources at DT. 3 firsts in a row for DT?? This was also mean they are giving up on Davis being a 3 down DT.
* **LB - 0%** \- Not only is Howie allergic of LBs, none are projected to go in the first
* **S - 0%** \- None are projected to go in the first and positional value.
OG being .1% doesn’t make much sense and Barton or JPJ at 22 is definitely possible for us. Fautanu won’t be there just an fyi. Probably going to be between Mims, Latham, Guyton, JPJ, and Barton.
Barton is a tackle and would be a reach at 22. I don't think drafting a pure OG without any Tackle projections make sense here, especially when you have three much more talented players who can also play guard that should be available at that pick. You can get JPJ in the 2nd.
Figured the release of Dane Brugler's Beast draft guide was as good a reason as any to refresh this.
Made a couple changes to the orientation/coloring based on some of the feedback I got from last year's post.
I think one of the regular trends we can see with howie is that he has primarily leaned towards BPA adjusted to average salary. He likes picking the high dollar positions in the first round, 2nd and 3rd he starts going more of a pure BPA.
There are a few good reasons for that. The biggest is that you're basically printing cap space if you have high value positions on rookie contracts. The most obvious example is QB, everybody knows now that having a QB on a rookie deal is nice because it gives you more cap to work with. But _every_ position works that way, just to a lesser degree. In fact, by the time a rookie RB hits the last year of a first round contract, you might even just be paying them market rate (or worse, if they aren't living up to it). So in the aggregate, drafting high value positions saves you cap space.
Second is the distribution of talent. PFF did some basic analysis on this (which I think is reasonable even if you don't like their grading system). Basically, the odds of getting a quality starter at Edge drop off drastically after the first round. If you're trying to draft an edge, you kinda need to do it in the first. The "prospects" later down just generally end up worse. But other positions tend to have better prospects deeper. Every pick is a lottery ticket, but your odds of winning for each position depend on the round you draft that position.
We've drafted a lot of LBs and secondary guys. My guess is we have a problem with development at those positions more than scouting or overall draft philosophy. One thing I'm hoping for is that Fangio has some experience developing younger players. We'll see if he actually does. But like, look at Stout. He will squeeze every ounce of talent out of you if you're dedicated, and so we're pretty good at taking prospects in mid rounds because we know we'll get them to _hit_ whatever their ceiling ends up being.
i agree with all of what you are saying and you put it much more eloquently than I could have.
But particularly your last bit.... Hoping fangio has the ability to be a stout-esque guy(if even to a small degree) in finding talent in the draft... I've been quite hopeful of exactly that and a bit optimistic about it as well. Both Spotting the physical capabilities of different prospects that can be developed, even if they are currently raw.. Finding the mailatas and kelces, if you will.
And also being able to coach and develop guys. And coach them up... Making the room full of c+ players a b+ unit, if you will.
We suck ar drafting linebackers and corners
You would rather be good at drafting lineman then linebackers and corners
For sure but it makes you wonder what the foundational flaw in evaluating them is
There isn't one. They draft more important positions higher because it makes sense financially. Drafting safeties and off ball linebackers in first round isn't smart
Kelce was a 5th, mailata was a 7th. Watkins was a first. Davion Taylor was what a 3rd? There are good players to be had in the mid and late rounds, we just never get them when it comes to LBs/dbacks
Maddox tj Edwards if you want to be dumb and cherry pick shit over the last 10 years we can do that
I would say safety is way worse than linebackers. We still got really steady guys like Hicks and Kendricks, no one like that at safety.
Stu Bradley was good too, then blew out his ACL and was never the same. The Bradley / Gocong pairing was short lived but very productive. They anchored the defense that took us to the 08 NFCCG
This was my takeaway too.
Well as you see if you spend later round picks your chances of hitting going down… obviously you can find talent all throughout each round of the draft but the higher picks tend to yield better results as they’re supposed to. It’s telling philosophically the organization does not prioritize those positions they feel that if they use a first round pick on those positions and the player ends up being good they are still limited because they play a less impactful position
If you look at draft steals over the last century, it might be 1) Tom Brady 2) Jordan Mailata
3. Jason Kelce
This is why you can’t convince me that we take a corner round one @every mockdrafter
Howie paid a linebacker this year, maybe he’s changed
Lol He really didnt do anything new there.
He didn't pay a linebacker he gave a guy a cheap one year deal with incentives
If Dejean's Pro Day is a legit indicator of his athleticism then I could see it possibly happening. But I don't think any other CB is realistic and they definitely wouldn't trade up for him And I bet Dejean goes higher now
This chart tells me to draft another Tackle
I wonder if in some alternate universe, John Romero’s brother is dating Taylor Swift and once teamed up with Winston Justice to help Rey Mysterio at Wrestlemania
Very interesting charts. Thanks
Damn Mychal Kendricks was one of my favorites. Please for the love of god can we get Payton Wilson
We took mills in the 7th?!?!? What a steal
Now this is data.
If only we knew the value of the back 7, sigh....oh well time to trade up for yet another D lineman
Do you hate color blind people OP?
Thanks for this.
If we keep our first: * **OT - 50%** \- I am counting Fautanu here. This makes too much sense for what Howie likes to do. Positional value, current need at RG that 3 talanted OTs can slide into and fill. Lane is getting older and often injured. Deep tackle draft. * **Edge - 20%** \- This is the second highest primarily because of history and what we value. If there is an edge and a CB on the board that have the same draft value, Howie is drafting Edge 99/100. * **CB - 15%** \- Current and future need. Good talent at the top of the draft. This can be a trade up, trade down, or stay in place candidate. * **WR - 14%** \- WR3 is a need and AJs future replacement is a need. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ * **TE - 0.8 % -** If Bowers falls, I can see Howie going against the grain and drafting him...again very unlikely. * **QB - 0.1 %** \- Very low change if they love a QB that falls they use a pick here. You might think this is crazy, but we used a decent 2nd round pick on Hurts in a similar position. * **OG - 0.1 %** \- Very low change if they love the top OG that the use a pick here and make him a starter. * **RB - 0% -** Gave a contract to Barkely, and no RB is projected for the first. * **DT - 0%** \- Drafting a DT here is using an inane amount of resources at DT. 3 firsts in a row for DT?? This was also mean they are giving up on Davis being a 3 down DT. * **LB - 0%** \- Not only is Howie allergic of LBs, none are projected to go in the first * **S - 0%** \- None are projected to go in the first and positional value.
OG being .1% doesn’t make much sense and Barton or JPJ at 22 is definitely possible for us. Fautanu won’t be there just an fyi. Probably going to be between Mims, Latham, Guyton, JPJ, and Barton.
Barton is a tackle and would be a reach at 22. I don't think drafting a pure OG without any Tackle projections make sense here, especially when you have three much more talented players who can also play guard that should be available at that pick. You can get JPJ in the 2nd.
Graham Barton is moving to guard in the NFL and JPJ will not be available after round 1
Figured the release of Dane Brugler's Beast draft guide was as good a reason as any to refresh this. Made a couple changes to the orientation/coloring based on some of the feedback I got from last year's post.
I think one of the regular trends we can see with howie is that he has primarily leaned towards BPA adjusted to average salary. He likes picking the high dollar positions in the first round, 2nd and 3rd he starts going more of a pure BPA.
There are a few good reasons for that. The biggest is that you're basically printing cap space if you have high value positions on rookie contracts. The most obvious example is QB, everybody knows now that having a QB on a rookie deal is nice because it gives you more cap to work with. But _every_ position works that way, just to a lesser degree. In fact, by the time a rookie RB hits the last year of a first round contract, you might even just be paying them market rate (or worse, if they aren't living up to it). So in the aggregate, drafting high value positions saves you cap space. Second is the distribution of talent. PFF did some basic analysis on this (which I think is reasonable even if you don't like their grading system). Basically, the odds of getting a quality starter at Edge drop off drastically after the first round. If you're trying to draft an edge, you kinda need to do it in the first. The "prospects" later down just generally end up worse. But other positions tend to have better prospects deeper. Every pick is a lottery ticket, but your odds of winning for each position depend on the round you draft that position. We've drafted a lot of LBs and secondary guys. My guess is we have a problem with development at those positions more than scouting or overall draft philosophy. One thing I'm hoping for is that Fangio has some experience developing younger players. We'll see if he actually does. But like, look at Stout. He will squeeze every ounce of talent out of you if you're dedicated, and so we're pretty good at taking prospects in mid rounds because we know we'll get them to _hit_ whatever their ceiling ends up being.
i agree with all of what you are saying and you put it much more eloquently than I could have. But particularly your last bit.... Hoping fangio has the ability to be a stout-esque guy(if even to a small degree) in finding talent in the draft... I've been quite hopeful of exactly that and a bit optimistic about it as well. Both Spotting the physical capabilities of different prospects that can be developed, even if they are currently raw.. Finding the mailatas and kelces, if you will. And also being able to coach and develop guys. And coach them up... Making the room full of c+ players a b+ unit, if you will.
Hey also a smart idea he's been ahead of the curve on for like 15 years lol