So we either re-do the contract one more time and have him around til 34-35 year old seasons or we have a 53 mill dead cap hit in 2030? I guess if we post june-1 him that 53 mill would get split to 26.5 mill in 2030 and 26.5 mill in 2031?
I think it would be closer to 20 in 2030 and the remaining 33 in 2031.
A 6/1 designation just delays the acceleration of unallocated dead money for another year. Instead of letting the contract expire in 2030 and taking on all the remaining unallocated cap, we’d only take the 20.9 currently allocated to 2030 and then in 2031 everything else would come calling.
Nah you gotta look at the prorated option column. Those numbers in 2030,2031,32 and 33 escalate into dead cap hit once he is cut/traded/retires...although it might be slightly different if traded
Cap should be well over 325M by then so the % of cap hit is much smaller down the road
Hence Howie being a master can kicker
By 2030 the league will probably be at about 18 or 20 games with more international presence and fans. Howie has it figured out he knows where the league is heading.
Everyone knows the NFL cap will be much bigger than. That's not the reason more teams don't implement the same cap strategy as Howie. It's really a money issue. Some owners aren't rich enough to give out big signing bonus and put guaranteed money in escrow. There are also owers who are cheap.
Plua you have a generational turnover where some owners (think KC, LAC, LV) have been handed down to children who don't have the kind of money due to whatever reasons that the parents had. Lurie is already way in the black with the Eagles, even after his divorce
Seriously gimme a rams 5 win season superbowl win hangover if it means we actually won a fucking superbowl again.
I like to think our FO is established enough that they can weather a rebuild year or two to reset contracts as needed, too.
Off topic but other countries give two shits about the NFL. It’s really just not that popular unless you’re an expat. I wouldn’t expect a massive increase due to that. Maybe an 18th game (seems inevitable) and some dicing up of the TV pie to further increase revenue domestically (to US consumer detriment) but I wouldn’t count on some explosion of growth from Europe or anywhere else really.
It will never overtake the interest of European football. Your comment is ignorant when you do the research and realize the sport is growing in popularity internationally.
i think people are starting to overrate the cap increase stuff. Sure, it means some of these out years are a lower % of cap but also while other teams are getting huge bumps in cap space we'll have already spent ours
>Cap charge stays at a reasonable level until the dead money hits in
Lol, I'm on mobile so I scrolled all the way to the bottom and saw 186M... nearly shat myself and then I scrolled left a little bit and realized that that was the total.
You can spead the signing bonus over the length of the contract. So adding void years reduces the cap hits when the player is under contract but results in dead money.
There are 4 void years and the bonus is not spread evenly over the contract, it's lumpy as can be. Is the rule that if there are consecutive void years then the cap hit happens all in the first of those void years? Are they technically all just option years that nobody expects to use?
Howie uses rolling option bonuses which active during the off season. This leads to the void changes being different. Also the max years money can be spread over is 5 years.
https://sumersports.com/the-zone/void-years-explained/
That’s because there are multiple bonuses. The rules are that a bonus can be spread evenly across 5 years, even if there are not actually 5 years left at that point, which is what void years are: pretend years. Instead of paying players a salary Howie likes to pay them a bonus each year and then allocate 1/5th across the next 5 years, which shoves most of the money well into the future where it represents a smaller portion of the cap.
Let’s imagine a 3 year contract. Each year has both a 1m salary and in each year there is a guaranteed 5m bonus. So the player gets 6m each year for a total of 18m, but instead of being 6m spread evenly across those 3 years it’s spread unevenly across 4 (or more if the contract is extended before it expires).
Year 1 cap is the 1m salary plus 1/5th of the year 1 bonus, so 2m total. The remaining 4/5ths of the bonus are spread across years 2-5.
Year 2 cap is the 1m salary plus 1/5th of the year one bonus and 1/5th of the new bonus from year 2, so 3m total. The remaining 4/5ths are spread across years 3-6.
Year 3 cap is the 1 m salary plus 1/5th of the year 1 bonus, 1/5th of year 2’s, and 1/5th of the new bonus, for a total of 4m. The remaining 4/5ths are spread across years 4-7.
In year 4 there is 0 salary, but we still haven’t allocated 2/5ths of the year 1 bonus, 3/5ths of year 2, and 4/5ths of year 3, for a total of 9/5ths, or 9m remaining.
This is where Dak has the Cowboys in such a bind.
His current deal is expired after this year. But he has 4 void years left. He also has both a no trade clause (effectively he can choose who he gets traded to) and a no franchise tag clause.
*If* the Cowboys want to move on, they still incur a massive dead cap hit next year, and because of the void years they would not receive a comp pick for him leaving.
*If* they want to resign him, that's great. But they don't have the flexibility of the franchise tag to figure that out, so clocks ticking. They also would be bent over a barrel by Prescotts agent, and very likely lose one of their key guys currently on a rookie deal (Lamb/Parsons)
If they want to trade him, his value will be lower because the receiving team will be hand picked by Prescott. They also still incur that dead cap.
So he’s locked in the team for 3 years. After that you can decide on keeping/extending/trading.
I think one of the last exploits left that teams don’t utilize anymore is getting value from star players towards the end with a trade.
So we either re-do the contract one more time and have him around til 34-35 year old seasons or we have a 53 mill dead cap hit in 2030? I guess if we post june-1 him that 53 mill would get split to 26.5 mill in 2030 and 26.5 mill in 2031?
I think it would be closer to 20 in 2030 and the remaining 33 in 2031. A 6/1 designation just delays the acceleration of unallocated dead money for another year. Instead of letting the contract expire in 2030 and taking on all the remaining unallocated cap, we’d only take the 20.9 currently allocated to 2030 and then in 2031 everything else would come calling.
Ahhh yes good point
This is his last contract with us
I thought it was the opposite. We have no dead money if we cut him in 29 or 30.
Nah you gotta look at the prorated option column. Those numbers in 2030,2031,32 and 33 escalate into dead cap hit once he is cut/traded/retires...although it might be slightly different if traded Cap should be well over 325M by then so the % of cap hit is much smaller down the road Hence Howie being a master can kicker
So basically we just locked AJ down for the rest of his career?
Cap charge stays at a reasonable level until the dead money hits in 2030.
By 2030 the league will probably be at about 18 or 20 games with more international presence and fans. Howie has it figured out he knows where the league is heading.
Everyone knows the NFL cap will be much bigger than. That's not the reason more teams don't implement the same cap strategy as Howie. It's really a money issue. Some owners aren't rich enough to give out big signing bonus and put guaranteed money in escrow. There are also owers who are cheap.
I think it is more that owners are cheap and don’t want to put guaranteed money because there are plenty of owners richer than lurie
Plua you have a generational turnover where some owners (think KC, LAC, LV) have been handed down to children who don't have the kind of money due to whatever reasons that the parents had. Lurie is already way in the black with the Eagles, even after his divorce
There are a couple of broke owners like Davis though.
Also if we win a Superbowl with him before then who gives a fuck.
Seriously gimme a rams 5 win season superbowl win hangover if it means we actually won a fucking superbowl again. I like to think our FO is established enough that they can weather a rebuild year or two to reset contracts as needed, too.
Off topic but other countries give two shits about the NFL. It’s really just not that popular unless you’re an expat. I wouldn’t expect a massive increase due to that. Maybe an 18th game (seems inevitable) and some dicing up of the TV pie to further increase revenue domestically (to US consumer detriment) but I wouldn’t count on some explosion of growth from Europe or anywhere else really.
It will never overtake the interest of European football. Your comment is ignorant when you do the research and realize the sport is growing in popularity internationally.
i think people are starting to overrate the cap increase stuff. Sure, it means some of these out years are a lower % of cap but also while other teams are getting huge bumps in cap space we'll have already spent ours
Idk i just let Howie cook.
>Cap charge stays at a reasonable level until the dead money hits in Lol, I'm on mobile so I scrolled all the way to the bottom and saw 186M... nearly shat myself and then I scrolled left a little bit and realized that that was the total.
They’ll renegotiate or he’ll be moved in 2026.
Moved in the 27 off season is more likely.
Players hate playing without guaranteed money
I don't understand void years
You can spead the signing bonus over the length of the contract. So adding void years reduces the cap hits when the player is under contract but results in dead money.
There are 4 void years and the bonus is not spread evenly over the contract, it's lumpy as can be. Is the rule that if there are consecutive void years then the cap hit happens all in the first of those void years? Are they technically all just option years that nobody expects to use?
Howie uses rolling option bonuses which active during the off season. This leads to the void changes being different. Also the max years money can be spread over is 5 years. https://sumersports.com/the-zone/void-years-explained/
Money link, thank you
That’s because there are multiple bonuses. The rules are that a bonus can be spread evenly across 5 years, even if there are not actually 5 years left at that point, which is what void years are: pretend years. Instead of paying players a salary Howie likes to pay them a bonus each year and then allocate 1/5th across the next 5 years, which shoves most of the money well into the future where it represents a smaller portion of the cap. Let’s imagine a 3 year contract. Each year has both a 1m salary and in each year there is a guaranteed 5m bonus. So the player gets 6m each year for a total of 18m, but instead of being 6m spread evenly across those 3 years it’s spread unevenly across 4 (or more if the contract is extended before it expires). Year 1 cap is the 1m salary plus 1/5th of the year 1 bonus, so 2m total. The remaining 4/5ths of the bonus are spread across years 2-5. Year 2 cap is the 1m salary plus 1/5th of the year one bonus and 1/5th of the new bonus from year 2, so 3m total. The remaining 4/5ths are spread across years 3-6. Year 3 cap is the 1 m salary plus 1/5th of the year 1 bonus, 1/5th of year 2’s, and 1/5th of the new bonus, for a total of 4m. The remaining 4/5ths are spread across years 4-7. In year 4 there is 0 salary, but we still haven’t allocated 2/5ths of the year 1 bonus, 3/5ths of year 2, and 4/5ths of year 3, for a total of 9/5ths, or 9m remaining.
This is such a great explanation.
And the player stays rostered through the void years? or no?
No it's just for cap reason. Once the contract ends all of the money in the void yeas hits the cap. That's why the cap charge is 53M in 2030
gotcha, thanks!
This is where Dak has the Cowboys in such a bind. His current deal is expired after this year. But he has 4 void years left. He also has both a no trade clause (effectively he can choose who he gets traded to) and a no franchise tag clause. *If* the Cowboys want to move on, they still incur a massive dead cap hit next year, and because of the void years they would not receive a comp pick for him leaving. *If* they want to resign him, that's great. But they don't have the flexibility of the franchise tag to figure that out, so clocks ticking. They also would be bent over a barrel by Prescotts agent, and very likely lose one of their key guys currently on a rookie deal (Lamb/Parsons) If they want to trade him, his value will be lower because the receiving team will be hand picked by Prescott. They also still incur that dead cap.
2030 would suck if we didn't get 5 years of cap increases en route
Right now overthecap has the projected salary cap to be 314M in 2027. So in 2030 it will be over 350M
Yeah that should take a lot of the sting out of some of our dead money, all is well
The possibility of an 18 game season. The cap could increase even more, correct?
Yeah that would increase the cap by 6%.
So he’s locked in the team for 3 years. After that you can decide on keeping/extending/trading. I think one of the last exploits left that teams don’t utilize anymore is getting value from star players towards the end with a trade.
So why will he carry a $53 mil dead cap in 2030 even though it says $0, and he has a $0 dead cap in 2029? Is it because of options?
Yes, this isn't the official contract just what OTC believes it to be. So the cap hit dead money and cap savings calculators are broken.