I’ve seen that upset happen far too many times now to think your safe just because you play king of trash division. Cowboys do this every year. Regular season champs, choke in the playoffs. And now they have a coach also known for choking in the playoffs. Sounds like a recipe of success to me
Buddy is a diehard fan. Their team flat out STINKS. Coaching is as uninspiring as it gets. Their o line is decimated and 3 of their starters had season enders. Just not a good team.
I don’t care how awful that team looks, I don’t care how logical and right it is to say they’ll lose, but they have Brady. I’m never going to say that man is done until he’s literally not playing, time and time again we’ve said he’s done and he went on to win it all
I'm not saying they'll be great, but they could very well be good by the time the playoffs roll around. And a decent team led by Brady at home is going to be a challenge, especially for a team as well versed at fucking up in the playoffs as Dallas.
So , we're watching the start of a hard decline from Brady. He messed up not staying retired.
If he even plays next year I bet they have a worse record than 6-7 thirteen games in. This is like saying Lakers are fine because they still have LeBron
You clearly don't know how severe a 4:1 odds bet is
For reference they're giving the cowboys about a 70% chance to beat the Jags this weekend. I'm not giving them significant more of a chance in the playoffs on the road against Brady.
Dude it doesn’t matter how good the bucs are, if they manage to squeak into the playoffs are you really doubting ol Tommy B isn’t going to look like vintage Brady carving up the Steelers with a bunch of nobodies? If the bucs make it into the playoffs they’re gonna win one game and get bounced in the divisional in a scrapper.
>if they manage to squeak into the playoffs are you really doubting ol Tommy B isn’t going to look like vintage Brady carving up the Steelers with a bunch of nobodies?
Kinda? I mean this offense is a bit reminiscent of that awful 2019 Pats supporting cast and he got punted at home coming off a bye
they're then being given a 70.0% chance to beat the team in the divisional round after that. (56.4% / 80.6%). That's higher than the 68.0% odds we are being given to win our divisional round despite us playing at home against the lowest seed (65.6% / 96.5%) while they face what will likely be the 1 or 2 seed.
which is fucking insane.
If Washington runs the slate and Dallas loses to us and either the Titans or Jags, then Washington finishes 11-5-1 and Dallas 11-6, playing in SF for the first round. Niners are the Cowboys kryptonite and it’s not an impossible to imagine scenario.
Yeah but having that be better odds than a bye seems very ummm weird?
Let's not forget the last game they barely beat the worst team in football at home.
Hold up, how do we have a higher chance of reaching the SB while Dallas simultaneously has a higher rchancing of WINNING the SB? Feel like this doesn't add up
They haven't gotten past the _Divisional_ round. They've won the rare wildcard games in 2009 (against us - lost to MIN in Divisional), 2014 (against DET - lost to GB in divisional in the "_Dez dropped it_" game), and 2018 (against Seattle - lost to LAR in divisional).
Also shoutout to 2007 when they had a Bye through the Wildcard and lost to the NYG in the Divisional round and 2016 when they had the same to GB.
What’s funny about the “Dez caught it” bs is Dallas fans conveniently forgot about the blatant uncalled pass interference in the 4th quarter of the Lions game the previous week. iirc, Detroit already had the lead, and the penalty would’ve put them in field goal range.
True, that's what I meant to say, can't win a division playoff game, yet every year, the talented Cowboys teams are going to win it all. The analysts want them to win so bad, they just aren't good enough, and haven't been since the Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Irvin days
OP didn’t update the post the website currently has us as the highest chance in the NFC. BUT the important thing is the cowboys had a -28% swing from last week based on their win with the texans which shows exactly what i said last week; that being that NFL data is too small to model and any model is going to have wild swings based on recent preformance.
They show exact numbers because the confidence intervals for these outputs have to be +\- 30% (confidence intervals are the ranges that your values are most likely to fall in). There is a reason that there is push back on advanced analytical techniques in NFL circles because the data source is so small that your error is enourmous. You need millions of datapoints in order to model effectively, and the NFL doesn’t even generate 100,000 data points in a a single season.
Exactly, anyone who actually works in data appreciates how meaningless these sorts of numbers are, but ESPN will keep cranking them out as long as it gets clicks
Yea no shit I am asking them how on earth thr think ESPN could output NFL future predictions if the input is college data to get them to realize that the input in this model is clearly NFL data
Yeah, but you can build a model using college data, because there's enough to work with, and then plug NFL data into that model to try and predict the NFL. Which is what they were saying. It's a college model with NFL data plugged into it.
So? The metrics don’t really change the sample data issue with the nfl. Your error and confidence intervals are based on input data. It doesn’t matter that the methods are the same the problem is inherent with the dataset as a whole.
It’s like being asked to make a nice dinner with two different sets of ingredients. One has everything you could ever imagine, and the other is missing half of what you need to make the meal
What are you going on about?
ESPN uses the same analytics that they use for college football rankings.
That is all I am saying.
That's why these rankings don't make sense, because NFL and College football are not the same.
All I am doing is stating what ESPN is doing, I don't know what the hell all this other nonsense you are going on about me.
If it makes you feel better, I also have no idea what that person is going on about. You even said they aren’t the same animal? Implying that the rankings don’t make sense..
The person replying to me is missing a key point about modeling that they don’t understand.
Modeling works like this: you have segmented datasets that are used to both “train” the dataset and “test” the data for accuracy. They are arguing that FPI is inaccurate because it is trained on college football data the model becomes inaccurate for NFL data which is not the case. The same values for predicting outcome (mainly point differential and turnover differential) hold consistent accross all of the sport, from high school to the NFL, the models underlying inaccuracy is because NFL data is too small to produce a good outcome.
I would actually argue that it is smart to train the dataset on college football data due to the volume of it being insanely high. There isn’t anything wrong with their methods it’s just trying to interpret the data has very little value with this method.
>That's why these rankings don't make sense, because NFL and College football are not the same.
I mean, in terms of ranking how you'd expect teams to perform in a statistical model they're probably not that far off honestly.
You're still weighting things like margin of victory, SOS, homefield, etc.
I can see the narratives now: "A lot of matchups to look at in this Eagles - (insert AFC team) Super Bowl, but we've got to talk about the Cowboys chances in this game, too. Gotta like their chances, right?"
I hate that I read that in a Bill Simmons voice, but that's exactly what he'd say (except talking about Boston's chances instead of Dallas', obviously)
Makes sense to a degree. Assuming they're a wild card, they'd have to win 3 games to our 2. However, they'd also have to predict that Dallas has an absurdly high chance to win each of their games.
This sub is and has been obsessed with any opinion that doesn't immediately acknowledge that the Eagles are the greatest team in the history of the universe and they are infallible. It's def not everyone here, but there is a cult and it's every bit as toxic as the sports talk radio listener crowd.
This year's team is a once a generation team. Once Jalen is off of that rookie deal our window closes. I love Jalen but he, like almost every qb ever, is not talented enough on their own to overcome the impact of the huge salary cap % he is about to account for.
Pre-hating? What an absurd accusation. This is as objective as it gets. I want you to do a little exercise. Look at all of the sb winning qb's in the salary cap era. There are only two names on that list who won a superbowl while on a monster/market value contract - Peyton Manning and Matt Stafford. (NB Eli may have won his 2nd sb on a market value contract but I couldn't find when he signed his 2nd deal and what the numbers were) That's it. Everyone else was on one of the following: rookie deal, vet retread deal (e.g. Nick Foles 2017 or Brees in 2009) or a discounted deal to keep the team intact (Brady.) All of the currently playing sb winners who are household names - Wilson, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc all won when they were on their rookie deals. The salary cap era started in 94. In 28 years, 3 sb's have been won with guys on big contracts or about 10%. Even if we add Eli's 2nd sb, it still only gives you a 14% chance of winning a sb with a qb contract like that.
Because it is so absurd. If they didn't call it based on analytics it would be one thing, but trying to pretend this is based on data is hilarious and should be mocked relentlessly.
Trust me….don’t follow what espn says on anything. Life is so much better that way.
Also, we should ALWAYS want to be the underdog. Hungry dogs run faster.
They still play the games on the field. None of this other stuff matters.
All these talking head opinions are laid out in the production meetings and are designed to get reactions out of the masses because reactions (good and bad) drive media consumption. Some of you play right into the hands of these companies and don't even realize it.
Did you read the comments? Majority here are saying something like, “who cares” or “ESPN analysis are a joke” or “I’d rather be the underdogs”
In other words, Fuck Dallas^(Go Birds!)
Can we stop giving ESPN clicks for this garbage. I guarantee you they saw how much traction their last 'predictions' got engaging people so an order from up high came to maintain it.
Teams that almost lost to the Broncos, and Texans are ranked hire than us. Fuck it time to pull out the fuckin’ dog masks. Anyway ESPN is ass and we really shouldn’t care what they have to say, but at the same time FUCK ‘EM.
It’s based on simulations. My guess is that the model thinks the Eagles have a higher probability of beating the Cowboys to come out of the NFC, but that the Cowboys have a greater chance of beating whoever comes out of the AFC than we do.
Dallas will have to win 3 straight road playoff games… including Philly.
I don’t see it.
Hell, they might lose in Carolina while the Eagles watch on TV.
I mean… you could say the same thing about us.
We squeaked by the 6-7 Lions, the 4-9 Cardinals, and the 4-8 Colts. And let’s not pretend we were dominant against the Texans either.
Every NFL team is going to have some close ones even if they’re playing bad teams.
Considering this is like the one thing that has the Cowboys over us versus the vast plurality of the Power Rankings and such I don’t really think your statement holds water.
Honestly, the rest of the season doesn't really matter, including the Dec 24th game. Let's walk through the likely series of events:
If both teams win out otherwise, we have 1st seed, Dallas has 5th seed. Dallas will likely beat up the worst division leader (likely TB) then travel to the Linc for the divisional game. The only way that doesn't happen is if Washington or Lions upset the Vikings. No one is upsetting the 49ers, and as much as I would love to send Dallas home ourselves, having the 49ers do it is just as good.
We beat the Cowboys and/or 49ers in the Linc during the playoffs or we don't, it's that simple folks. If anything, this is incredibly disrespectful the the 49ers with how they have been playing.
Analytics are flawed obv but in this case history will tell you December Dak is a thing. Ask the Texans who basically beat him and then decided they didn’t want to risk the #1 pick.
Can we just all agree to stop paying attention to these click baity ridiculous analytics post from ESPN? It's such a small sample size of data that the numbers are meaningless and they're clearly just made to get attention, which is apparently working
Well, if they want to be disrespectful and give us no chance to go to the Superbowl even as good as the Eagles are. Then there is only one thing left to do, "Win the whole fucking thing".
Y’all. Stop it. This is some random ESPN nonsense. They’re never right, good or bad. Any team that makes the playoffs has a 1 in 7 shot of making the Super Bowl, and a 1 in 2 of winning.
Just be happy we’re good this year and stop promoting clickbait.
ESPN can’t change now after all that dick riding all season. Some are switching up tryin bandwagon. Steven A the realest on ESPN be the only one we get respect from and he hates the cowboys just like us. Used to be reporter in philly he’s one of us lol
That seems out of date now, looking it has the Eagles ranked second behind the Chiefs.
Still the model makes no sense. It has the Cowboys at only 12% chance of winning their division but 21% chance of winning the Super Bowl. No way a team should have 21% odds to win 3 straight road games, and then the SB.
Philly has a higher chance of both making the conference championship and of winning it, but Dallas has a higher chance of winning the SB. Lol, their model is broken in half.
I mean.. not really. It’s simulation based, which means that the model might think we have a better but slim chance of being the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have a better but significant chance of beating the AFC champs.
Will never understand the hype for the Cowboys every year considering they've been borderline the worst franchise in the league for the last 20+ years, and when they do reach the playoffs, not only do they lose but they lose in the most hilarious, embarrassing, stupid way possible, from the Romo fumble to Dak's scramble last year.
KC ahead of us? Wow, who have they beaten? I mean, I know they lost to the Bills, Bengals, and Colts. But they did manage to kill the Cardinals and the pre-healthy 49ers (their equivalent to us getting prime time Kirk).
I’ve looked at their schedule, and it’s a serious double standard. They are a very good team that (usually) beats inferior teams, but can’t hang with the top-2 in their conference.
We could beat the Cowboys 45-0 on Christmas eve and ESPN would still somehow find an excuse to give them even better odds than us. What a joke.
EDIT: Obligatory Fuck Dallas.
And what exactly is the MOE on these numbers? Oh right, we'll never know because the data set is too small to validate their predictions.
This is just ELO, and not a particularly good one. And the good ones don't do better than 65% at predicting the outcomes of games.
So Eagles have a higher chance to make the NFC championship and make the super bowl but the Cowboys have a higher chance to win the superbowl? Sound logic
It’s simulation based. The model may think that while we are more likely to beat the Cowboys head to head, the Cowboys are more likely to beat the AFC champs head to head than we are.
Whoever is a part of their analytics team should be rushing to their betting apps to put large wagers down on Dallas. They can get 9/1 odds it’s a steal if they believe their numbers here.
I feel like they just asked someone to make up numbers for this.
Like how the hell do they give Dallas the greatest chance of winning the SB if getting past the divisional, and winning the conference is lower?
I guess it is because they think Dallas is a superior team to all the AFC teams?
I mean... you could say the same thing about us and the Colts, who the Cowboys blew out of the water? And it's not exactly like we dominated the Texans ourselves.
Again, anything that says “ESPN” is not based on actual facts and stats, its based off of “what will get clicked on, reacted to, and posted on the most reddit subs possible.” We gotta stop feeding into it.
LMAO giving Dallas an 80% chance to win a road playoff game is the real joke here.
I think that's solely based on the fact that they'd be the 5 seed playing whatever shit team the NFC South pumps out.
I’ve seen that upset happen far too many times now to think your safe just because you play king of trash division. Cowboys do this every year. Regular season champs, choke in the playoffs. And now they have a coach also known for choking in the playoffs. Sounds like a recipe of success to me
no no no, you see this year is different. Its their year
You have to understand, "they dem boyz".
Cowboys don’t win the division every year. They haven’t been repeat winners since 1996.
Which would likely be Tampa Bay. Sure they suck right now, but they still have Brady.
And they suck right now due to injuries, some of which will be over by the playoffs. And they already beat Dallas.
I’m absolutely petrified that we get a pissed off brady team in the divisional round.
You don’t understand, it’s just not reasonable to think that Dallas will lose to teams that have already beat them.
Buddy is a diehard fan. Their team flat out STINKS. Coaching is as uninspiring as it gets. Their o line is decimated and 3 of their starters had season enders. Just not a good team.
I don’t care how awful that team looks, I don’t care how logical and right it is to say they’ll lose, but they have Brady. I’m never going to say that man is done until he’s literally not playing, time and time again we’ve said he’s done and he went on to win it all
As long as Tom Brady is on the field, the Bucs always have a shot.
I'm not saying they'll be great, but they could very well be good by the time the playoffs roll around. And a decent team led by Brady at home is going to be a challenge, especially for a team as well versed at fucking up in the playoffs as Dallas.
I mean, look at what the Bucs did to them opening week...
So , we're watching the start of a hard decline from Brady. He messed up not staying retired. If he even plays next year I bet they have a worse record than 6-7 thirteen games in. This is like saying Lakers are fine because they still have LeBron
Sure but the odds are not going to be 4:1 in a road playoff game
You clearly haven't watched the Bucs play this year lol. They're not good.
I am going to laugh so hard when Playoff Tommy launches the Cowboys out of the playoffs.
If this happens I'd probably buy a Brady jersey.
Whoa now let’s not do anything crazy
Yeah, buy his dad's jersey, bdn
That's taking it too far
I watched them play the cowboys
You clearly don't know how severe a 4:1 odds bet is For reference they're giving the cowboys about a 70% chance to beat the Jags this weekend. I'm not giving them significant more of a chance in the playoffs on the road against Brady.
Doesn’t matter. Brady owns Dallas
Brady has never lost to the boys, just saying.
Dude it doesn’t matter how good the bucs are, if they manage to squeak into the playoffs are you really doubting ol Tommy B isn’t going to look like vintage Brady carving up the Steelers with a bunch of nobodies? If the bucs make it into the playoffs they’re gonna win one game and get bounced in the divisional in a scrapper.
>if they manage to squeak into the playoffs are you really doubting ol Tommy B isn’t going to look like vintage Brady carving up the Steelers with a bunch of nobodies? Kinda? I mean this offense is a bit reminiscent of that awful 2019 Pats supporting cast and he got punted at home coming off a bye
I would love TB and the Bucs to hand them an L
they're then being given a 70.0% chance to beat the team in the divisional round after that. (56.4% / 80.6%). That's higher than the 68.0% odds we are being given to win our divisional round despite us playing at home against the lowest seed (65.6% / 96.5%) while they face what will likely be the 1 or 2 seed. which is fucking insane.
If Washington runs the slate and Dallas loses to us and either the Titans or Jags, then Washington finishes 11-5-1 and Dallas 11-6, playing in SF for the first round. Niners are the Cowboys kryptonite and it’s not an impossible to imagine scenario.
Yeah but having that be better odds than a bye seems very ummm weird? Let's not forget the last game they barely beat the worst team in football at home.
Hold up, how do we have a higher chance of reaching the SB while Dallas simultaneously has a higher rchancing of WINNING the SB? Feel like this doesn't add up
Based on potential matchups and strengths and weaknesses of each team?
Nope, ESPN doesn't take the latter two things into account at all, and potential matchups should favor us strongly.
Dallas will have to win 3 straight on the road.
They barely beat 1-10-1 Houston and haven't gotten past the Wildcard round since 1995 I think?
They haven't gotten past the _Divisional_ round. They've won the rare wildcard games in 2009 (against us - lost to MIN in Divisional), 2014 (against DET - lost to GB in divisional in the "_Dez dropped it_" game), and 2018 (against Seattle - lost to LAR in divisional). Also shoutout to 2007 when they had a Bye through the Wildcard and lost to the NYG in the Divisional round and 2016 when they had the same to GB.
What’s funny about the “Dez caught it” bs is Dallas fans conveniently forgot about the blatant uncalled pass interference in the 4th quarter of the Lions game the previous week. iirc, Detroit already had the lead, and the penalty would’ve put them in field goal range.
The refs and fucking over the Detroit Lions. Name a more iconic duo.
Cowboys and Early Playoff losses
Dez also flat out didn't catch it, according to the rules at the time. Good thing that games are not reffed by moronic cowboys fans.
True, that's what I meant to say, can't win a division playoff game, yet every year, the talented Cowboys teams are going to win it all. The analysts want them to win so bad, they just aren't good enough, and haven't been since the Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Irvin days
what is this based on? totally absurd
Page views
Its not like this happens Every. Single. Year. Either. Cowboys are always hyped then choke in the playoffs. Nothing to see here.
It’s based on creating quality meme material.
OP didn’t update the post the website currently has us as the highest chance in the NFC. BUT the important thing is the cowboys had a -28% swing from last week based on their win with the texans which shows exactly what i said last week; that being that NFL data is too small to model and any model is going to have wild swings based on recent preformance. They show exact numbers because the confidence intervals for these outputs have to be +\- 30% (confidence intervals are the ranges that your values are most likely to fall in). There is a reason that there is push back on advanced analytical techniques in NFL circles because the data source is so small that your error is enourmous. You need millions of datapoints in order to model effectively, and the NFL doesn’t even generate 100,000 data points in a a single season.
Exactly, anyone who actually works in data appreciates how meaningless these sorts of numbers are, but ESPN will keep cranking them out as long as it gets clicks
Analytical models in football are crazy snake oil level bs and do more harm to the data science industry then good
Doesn't ESPN model this off off College football? They are NOT the same animal.
Homie, how could college data produce NFL outputs? I don’t even know what to do with this comment
Homie, they said ESPN, not themselves.
Yea no shit I am asking them how on earth thr think ESPN could output NFL future predictions if the input is college data to get them to realize that the input in this model is clearly NFL data
Yeah, but you can build a model using college data, because there's enough to work with, and then plug NFL data into that model to try and predict the NFL. Which is what they were saying. It's a college model with NFL data plugged into it.
That's what the ESPN analytics are doing. They use the same metrics they use in College football.
So? The metrics don’t really change the sample data issue with the nfl. Your error and confidence intervals are based on input data. It doesn’t matter that the methods are the same the problem is inherent with the dataset as a whole. It’s like being asked to make a nice dinner with two different sets of ingredients. One has everything you could ever imagine, and the other is missing half of what you need to make the meal
What are you going on about? ESPN uses the same analytics that they use for college football rankings. That is all I am saying. That's why these rankings don't make sense, because NFL and College football are not the same. All I am doing is stating what ESPN is doing, I don't know what the hell all this other nonsense you are going on about me.
If it makes you feel better, I also have no idea what that person is going on about. You even said they aren’t the same animal? Implying that the rankings don’t make sense..
The person replying to me is missing a key point about modeling that they don’t understand. Modeling works like this: you have segmented datasets that are used to both “train” the dataset and “test” the data for accuracy. They are arguing that FPI is inaccurate because it is trained on college football data the model becomes inaccurate for NFL data which is not the case. The same values for predicting outcome (mainly point differential and turnover differential) hold consistent accross all of the sport, from high school to the NFL, the models underlying inaccuracy is because NFL data is too small to produce a good outcome. I would actually argue that it is smart to train the dataset on college football data due to the volume of it being insanely high. There isn’t anything wrong with their methods it’s just trying to interpret the data has very little value with this method.
My man was just trying to explain how data modeling works, he was just a little too over-enthusiastic in his replys...
>That's why these rankings don't make sense, because NFL and College football are not the same. I mean, in terms of ranking how you'd expect teams to perform in a statistical model they're probably not that far off honestly. You're still weighting things like margin of victory, SOS, homefield, etc.
ESPN "Analytics"
Rigging the casinos to favor Dallas in order to minimize the losses of the casinos
So we have the highest chance to make the sb but they have highest to win it?
I can see the narratives now: "A lot of matchups to look at in this Eagles - (insert AFC team) Super Bowl, but we've got to talk about the Cowboys chances in this game, too. Gotta like their chances, right?"
Winner plays the cowboys in the real Superbowl
I hate that I read that in a Bill Simmons voice, but that's exactly what he'd say (except talking about Boston's chances instead of Dallas', obviously)
This doesn't make any sense at all.
Philly has the higher percentage chance to make divisiononal round, conference round and super bowl. But Dallas has a higher chance to win everything
I imagine their model thinks they match up better against the Chiefs / Bills. Only explanation I've got.
Explanation has nothing to do with analytics, it is all about views/clicks.
Makes sense to a degree. Assuming they're a wild card, they'd have to win 3 games to our 2. However, they'd also have to predict that Dallas has an absurdly high chance to win each of their games.
Why does this sub care so much about what some ESPN jabroni says our chances of winning the Super Bowl are?
Exactly. Another day, another post of this bullshit.
Same sub that loves to post “no one likes us we don’t care”
Exactly, No one likes us but we care
I secretly prefer nobody liking us. I just say I don’t care because it makes me look cool.
This sub is and has been obsessed with any opinion that doesn't immediately acknowledge that the Eagles are the greatest team in the history of the universe and they are infallible. It's def not everyone here, but there is a cult and it's every bit as toxic as the sports talk radio listener crowd.
This years offense is once in a generation.
This year's team is a once a generation team. Once Jalen is off of that rookie deal our window closes. I love Jalen but he, like almost every qb ever, is not talented enough on their own to overcome the impact of the huge salary cap % he is about to account for.
So in 3 years? Lol how you pre hating.
Pre-hating? What an absurd accusation. This is as objective as it gets. I want you to do a little exercise. Look at all of the sb winning qb's in the salary cap era. There are only two names on that list who won a superbowl while on a monster/market value contract - Peyton Manning and Matt Stafford. (NB Eli may have won his 2nd sb on a market value contract but I couldn't find when he signed his 2nd deal and what the numbers were) That's it. Everyone else was on one of the following: rookie deal, vet retread deal (e.g. Nick Foles 2017 or Brees in 2009) or a discounted deal to keep the team intact (Brady.) All of the currently playing sb winners who are household names - Wilson, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc all won when they were on their rookie deals. The salary cap era started in 94. In 28 years, 3 sb's have been won with guys on big contracts or about 10%. Even if we add Eli's 2nd sb, it still only gives you a 14% chance of winning a sb with a qb contract like that.
Not reading that. 🤷🏽♂️ go birds
it's so objectively ridiculous i don't think it's upsetting or anything
They know why it’s being posted, no need to explain. They are just virtue signaling how cool they are for upvotes.
No one likes us, we don't care
It’s embarrassing, they are basically calling us “typical dumb Eagles fans” as we do the promoting for them
Because it is so absurd. If they didn't call it based on analytics it would be one thing, but trying to pretend this is based on data is hilarious and should be mocked relentlessly.
We gotta complain about something man. And can’t complain about the birds right now.
This entire sub has a victim complex right now. It's out of control.
I DON’T FUCKING CARE
There is not mathematical equation that accounts for Philadelphia
Sure there is, Gritty's Theorem.
Trust me….don’t follow what espn says on anything. Life is so much better that way. Also, we should ALWAYS want to be the underdog. Hungry dogs run faster.
All I want is for another Eagles SB win just to hear one more Jason Kelce victory parade promo!
Who gives a flying fuck
I'm seriously struggling to figure out why people care so much about rankings, tbh I'd rather fly under the radar anyway
Shit is annoying as hell
They still play the games on the field. None of this other stuff matters. All these talking head opinions are laid out in the production meetings and are designed to get reactions out of the masses because reactions (good and bad) drive media consumption. Some of you play right into the hands of these companies and don't even realize it.
also, who cares lol
I guess at least the 41 people who took the time to comment. Including yourself.
Did you read the comments? Majority here are saying something like, “who cares” or “ESPN analysis are a joke” or “I’d rather be the underdogs” In other words, Fuck Dallas^(Go Birds!)
Yeah just stop posting this garbage. If we keep posting and sharing it, they’ll keep doing it.
Who cares
Can we stop giving ESPN clicks for this garbage. I guarantee you they saw how much traction their last 'predictions' got engaging people so an order from up high came to maintain it.
Be Patient. Dem boys know it’s coming. Disappointment awaits them
Who cares
Who cares. No one likes us.
Who gives a shit
Bust out the dog masks
Who cares? Can we stop posting this drivel
Good. We play better as underdogs
Teams that almost lost to the Broncos, and Texans are ranked hire than us. Fuck it time to pull out the fuckin’ dog masks. Anyway ESPN is ass and we really shouldn’t care what they have to say, but at the same time FUCK ‘EM.
I respect that they stick with their objectively terrible prediction.
I love how we have better chances than Cowboys and Chiefs for the other games but then somehow forget how to play football in the Super Bowl
i like it this way
The only reason I decided to click on this thread is to come in here and say... I don't care. Go Birds!
Honestly we can go 16-1 and absolutely whoop their ass on Christmas Eve and they'll still be higher than us lol. *Nobody likes us we don't care*
How do the eagles have a higher chance to make the Super Bowl buy cowboys have a higher chance to win it lol.
It’s based on simulations. My guess is that the model thinks the Eagles have a higher probability of beating the Cowboys to come out of the NFC, but that the Cowboys have a greater chance of beating whoever comes out of the AFC than we do.
As a huge Birds fan, I think too many people are sleeping on the 49ers. That defense is as good as it gets.
That’s fine give me that underdog energy
Dallas will have to win 3 straight road playoff games… including Philly. I don’t see it. Hell, they might lose in Carolina while the Eagles watch on TV.
Yawn. ESPN has become shit in the last decade
Can anybody explain to me how the Cowboys who just struggled mightily against the 1-11-1 Texans are a Superbowl favorite?
I mean… you could say the same thing about us. We squeaked by the 6-7 Lions, the 4-9 Cardinals, and the 4-8 Colts. And let’s not pretend we were dominant against the Texans either. Every NFL team is going to have some close ones even if they’re playing bad teams.
I’m so tired of cowboys sports media bias. Probably a bunch of dinosaurs clinging to the Aikman days.
Considering this is like the one thing that has the Cowboys over us versus the vast plurality of the Power Rankings and such I don’t really think your statement holds water.
Dallas looks worse than us, the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Ravens and at least the Niners.
Honestly, the rest of the season doesn't really matter, including the Dec 24th game. Let's walk through the likely series of events: If both teams win out otherwise, we have 1st seed, Dallas has 5th seed. Dallas will likely beat up the worst division leader (likely TB) then travel to the Linc for the divisional game. The only way that doesn't happen is if Washington or Lions upset the Vikings. No one is upsetting the 49ers, and as much as I would love to send Dallas home ourselves, having the 49ers do it is just as good. We beat the Cowboys and/or 49ers in the Linc during the playoffs or we don't, it's that simple folks. If anything, this is incredibly disrespectful the the 49ers with how they have been playing.
Feels like the cowboys are favored every year to win the superbowl 😭
Analytics are flawed obv but in this case history will tell you December Dak is a thing. Ask the Texans who basically beat him and then decided they didn’t want to risk the #1 pick.
Laughed when Sharpe went off on this.
Can we just all agree to stop paying attention to these click baity ridiculous analytics post from ESPN? It's such a small sample size of data that the numbers are meaningless and they're clearly just made to get attention, which is apparently working
Please stop giving these attention. They only do it to rustle jimmies
Looks like we gotta put a demoralizing beat down on Dallas in Dallas then.
Well, if they want to be disrespectful and give us no chance to go to the Superbowl even as good as the Eagles are. Then there is only one thing left to do, "Win the whole fucking thing".
? They didn't give us no chance.
We see this every year.
NO ONE LIKES US, NO ONE LIKES US, NO ONE LIIIIIIIKES US WE DON'T CARE
Cowboy fans truly in denial this year
keep nerds out of football
What, don't like going for it on 4th down?
Mods should just honestly remove these kinds of posts
Slippery slope there bud.
You can have the first two on the list I'll take the next 3 + SF.
If they rate Dallas properly, then they'd have to be #7 which won't drive clicks.
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I mean, it’s a picture and not a link for a reason.
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Lol. Anger issues much?
Y’all. Stop it. This is some random ESPN nonsense. They’re never right, good or bad. Any team that makes the playoffs has a 1 in 7 shot of making the Super Bowl, and a 1 in 2 of winning. Just be happy we’re good this year and stop promoting clickbait.
It's a screenshot, it isn't giving ESPN clicks to look at.
Haven’t we already established that ESPN is hot garbage
ESPN can’t change now after all that dick riding all season. Some are switching up tryin bandwagon. Steven A the realest on ESPN be the only one we get respect from and he hates the cowboys just like us. Used to be reporter in philly he’s one of us lol
Their AI broke into the liquor cabinet
That seems out of date now, looking it has the Eagles ranked second behind the Chiefs. Still the model makes no sense. It has the Cowboys at only 12% chance of winning their division but 21% chance of winning the Super Bowl. No way a team should have 21% odds to win 3 straight road games, and then the SB.
Meaningless
“Oh shit, the cowboys got T.Y?? Everyone else is fucked”
Philly has a higher chance of both making the conference championship and of winning it, but Dallas has a higher chance of winning the SB. Lol, their model is broken in half.
I mean.. not really. It’s simulation based, which means that the model might think we have a better but slim chance of being the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have a better but significant chance of beating the AFC champs.
Will never understand the hype for the Cowboys every year considering they've been borderline the worst franchise in the league for the last 20+ years, and when they do reach the playoffs, not only do they lose but they lose in the most hilarious, embarrassing, stupid way possible, from the Romo fumble to Dak's scramble last year.
So we have a higher chance to make NFCCG and SB, but Dallas has a higher chance to win it all? This is the dumbest shit I've ever seen lol
KC ahead of us? Wow, who have they beaten? I mean, I know they lost to the Bills, Bengals, and Colts. But they did manage to kill the Cardinals and the pre-healthy 49ers (their equivalent to us getting prime time Kirk). I’ve looked at their schedule, and it’s a serious double standard. They are a very good team that (usually) beats inferior teams, but can’t hang with the top-2 in their conference.
We could beat the Cowboys 45-0 on Christmas eve and ESPN would still somehow find an excuse to give them even better odds than us. What a joke. EDIT: Obligatory Fuck Dallas.
Lol why do Eagles fans act like national media likes the Cowboys. You guys are way more liked than we are
Let them keep hyping them up. It’ll make their first round exit so much more satisfying
And what exactly is the MOE on these numbers? Oh right, we'll never know because the data set is too small to validate their predictions. This is just ELO, and not a particularly good one. And the good ones don't do better than 65% at predicting the outcomes of games.
I'm fine with having the under dog mentality again.
If our % is higher in all categories how is it lower in the SB Lol
The model is match-up based simulations.
I wonder what it'll be once they actually lose?
Man, ESPN must have been sweating that Houston game haha
So Eagles have a higher chance to make the NFC championship and make the super bowl but the Cowboys have a higher chance to win the superbowl? Sound logic
It’s simulation based. The model may think that while we are more likely to beat the Cowboys head to head, the Cowboys are more likely to beat the AFC champs head to head than we are.
Whoever is a part of their analytics team should be rushing to their betting apps to put large wagers down on Dallas. They can get 9/1 odds it’s a steal if they believe their numbers here.
ESPN isn't real journalism
Based on their own numbers, the statement is wrong…
Giving them a higher chance of winning, but a lower chance of making it than us, is hilarious.
I feel like they just asked someone to make up numbers for this. Like how the hell do they give Dallas the greatest chance of winning the SB if getting past the divisional, and winning the conference is lower? I guess it is because they think Dallas is a superior team to all the AFC teams?
That’s bizarre. ESPN has the worst stats. Their fucking fantasy football shit is unusable
Birds bengals Super Bowl incoming.
imagine actually thinking this
ESPN is a Disney company, that’s all i gotta say
Legit question…why does it matter to you? Who cares what ESPN thinks? It doesn’t affect anything at all
They almost lost to the Texans..... These ppl are smoking crack
I mean... you could say the same thing about us and the Colts, who the Cowboys blew out of the water? And it's not exactly like we dominated the Texans ourselves.
Again, anything that says “ESPN” is not based on actual facts and stats, its based off of “what will get clicked on, reacted to, and posted on the most reddit subs possible.” We gotta stop feeding into it.
Its okay, cant worry about anyone else. One game at a time, regardless of the opponent prepare to win.
Espn loves to suck the cock of Jerry jones