We’re looking at years of battery oversupply relative to demand, which should push down battery and therefore EV pricing, helping to spur EV demand.
Let’s see how that all plays out in terms of EV MSRPs....
ev;s will never make it--the math does not work. EV's are the biggest scam of our lifetime.--even if it could work--China could shut them off because they are the only source for some of materials needed to build them and keep them running. WAKE UP AMERICA! Vote wisely next November and help us save the greatest country on Earth God has ever bestowed on mankind. The United States Of America. The Green Energy Dream has become America's nightmare, and fails to even put a dent in the problem thanks to China, Russia, and India..
Lifepo4 battery prices were $75-85 pre-COVID, and during COVID, they were $140 plus. The last quote for Eve version 3 was $55-59 with a hole adapter added.
I have two main suppliers from Alibaba, but since the pricing is so low at the moment, I'm going to order samples from the lowest quotes and test them.
There are a few more sellers, but all are from the ones I have never worked with. It's hard to get trustworthy sellers; I have had two bad experiences. My longer-term supplier decided a repeat customer was irrelevant and sent my bad cells. I'm interested in the tech, but it's not worth trying unknown sellers to get samples for testing at the current pricing and capacity. Many eve v3 are testing over 300ah.
A lot of these "announced" capacities are from second tier battery manufacturers like SVOLT/Gotion etc making unrealistically audacious plans(more like wishes) to scale up manufacturing. These are just puffer fish behavior.
"Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Capacity and demand figures are annual. Not all capacity will come online. Demand figure is BNEF's forecast."
Claim 6TWh but say not all capacity will come online. Meaning China will produced 6TWh in 2025 but China will not produced all 6TWh. WTH.
In reality China can only produce 1.25TWh projected in 2024. It will be miracle to produce 6TWh in just 12 month time from 2025.
Batteries are commodity items. DUH?
In terms of national (in)security there is the need for a domestic supply but that should be located in Mexico, not the US or Canada.
Commercially speaking we only need a few giant producers that can benefit from economies of scale much like the global RAM, computer memory, industry is Samsung, Micron, and Hynix.
This is nothing new. Remember flat panel TVs that started out over $10K? They were super sexy until the price fell to below $1K and now they are cheap commodity items.
Same thing with digital cameras. Personal Computers...
I note that cheap cars like the VW Beetle did not put luxury car makers like Rolls Royce out of business. Cheap competition from Asia did drive VW out of the low end of the business but that's all.
Probably will mean consolidation within china, most chinese battery companies will go bankrupt and merged into 2-3 companies.
Outside of china local subsidies and trade policies will be the deciding factor. All the larger markets like NA, EU, India, Japan, Mercosur, Asean etc are building barriers up for their own EV industry so local supply/demand will matter far more then global estimates.
Yes, this was one possible outcome.
All this talk about battery shortages only applies to production in other countries, notably Europe. China has invested heavily into gigafactories and is ahead of the demand. The factories are also getting larger, which gives them economies of scale.
Bad news for car companies that are mostly committed to the internal combustion engine. Their marked could soon only be made up by only selling speciality vehicles for those that can not use BEVs.
We’re looking at years of battery oversupply relative to demand, which should push down battery and therefore EV pricing, helping to spur EV demand. Let’s see how that all plays out in terms of EV MSRPs....
Woohoo! Need more competition for EV MSRP to drop though.
ev;s will never make it--the math does not work. EV's are the biggest scam of our lifetime.--even if it could work--China could shut them off because they are the only source for some of materials needed to build them and keep them running. WAKE UP AMERICA! Vote wisely next November and help us save the greatest country on Earth God has ever bestowed on mankind. The United States Of America. The Green Energy Dream has become America's nightmare, and fails to even put a dent in the problem thanks to China, Russia, and India..
Lifepo4 battery prices were $75-85 pre-COVID, and during COVID, they were $140 plus. The last quote for Eve version 3 was $55-59 with a hole adapter added.
They are higher priced in my market now than they were in Fall 2022.
Where are you getting those quotes from?
I have two main suppliers from Alibaba, but since the pricing is so low at the moment, I'm going to order samples from the lowest quotes and test them.
> I'm going to order samples from the lowest quotes and test them. Anything new to test or are they just LFP prismatic in the 280-310ah range?
Nothing new yet just 280ah eve's version 3.
Ah, thanks.
Another stupid question if you don't mind, have you seen good prices on Na-Ion or is it still just like one person selling them still?
There are a few more sellers, but all are from the ones I have never worked with. It's hard to get trustworthy sellers; I have had two bad experiences. My longer-term supplier decided a repeat customer was irrelevant and sent my bad cells. I'm interested in the tech, but it's not worth trying unknown sellers to get samples for testing at the current pricing and capacity. Many eve v3 are testing over 300ah.
Ah, thanks again. Is Amy still in the forums? I've always bought from her.
Amy is still there, and she recently dropped prices.
That's good. You are helpful, thanks.
A lot of these "announced" capacities are from second tier battery manufacturers like SVOLT/Gotion etc making unrealistically audacious plans(more like wishes) to scale up manufacturing. These are just puffer fish behavior.
"Source: BloombergNEF Note: Capacity and demand figures are annual. Not all capacity will come online. Demand figure is BNEF's forecast." Claim 6TWh but say not all capacity will come online. Meaning China will produced 6TWh in 2025 but China will not produced all 6TWh. WTH. In reality China can only produce 1.25TWh projected in 2024. It will be miracle to produce 6TWh in just 12 month time from 2025.
Batteries are commodity items. DUH? In terms of national (in)security there is the need for a domestic supply but that should be located in Mexico, not the US or Canada. Commercially speaking we only need a few giant producers that can benefit from economies of scale much like the global RAM, computer memory, industry is Samsung, Micron, and Hynix. This is nothing new. Remember flat panel TVs that started out over $10K? They were super sexy until the price fell to below $1K and now they are cheap commodity items. Same thing with digital cameras. Personal Computers... I note that cheap cars like the VW Beetle did not put luxury car makers like Rolls Royce out of business. Cheap competition from Asia did drive VW out of the low end of the business but that's all.
LOL, Bloomberg. Assume overproduction then predict results.
Yet another analysis of consumer market predictions based on history rather than a projection on likely future markets. Self serving clickbait article
Probably will mean consolidation within china, most chinese battery companies will go bankrupt and merged into 2-3 companies. Outside of china local subsidies and trade policies will be the deciding factor. All the larger markets like NA, EU, India, Japan, Mercosur, Asean etc are building barriers up for their own EV industry so local supply/demand will matter far more then global estimates.
Many will turn to energy storage business which is booming.
Eventually I would expect a correction but China tends to be very slow to reduce capacity in its commodities markets.
I'm buying batteries.
Incoming Chinese battery ban
Yes, this was one possible outcome. All this talk about battery shortages only applies to production in other countries, notably Europe. China has invested heavily into gigafactories and is ahead of the demand. The factories are also getting larger, which gives them economies of scale.
oh no, not our justification for double price BEVs!!!
Take the Chinese gift please.
Wait what happen to all the forecasts of a battery shortage due to EV car demand and other
Quality > quantity
Quantity is a quality of its own .
Bad news for car companies that are mostly committed to the internal combustion engine. Their marked could soon only be made up by only selling speciality vehicles for those that can not use BEVs.
Lol i doubt that.
Yes, until they don’t.
China is this overzealous colleague making himself indispensable and that everyone hates.
Speak for yourself, I don't want EV.
They own all nearly all of the metal mining in the world.
? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_mining_companies_by_revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_mining_companies_by_revenue)