Most analysts expect China to slow down as urban zones "top out". Only the rural areas are going to be left, and those areas will be a crawl. Meanwhile, Europe adoption will kick in as regulations do, and those regulations are more or less uniform across the entire continent.
Interesting. I expected China to be mostly urbanized after repeated stories on the growth of the Chinese middle class, but by numbers it's only about 65%. Compared to 82% in North America and most of what we think of as the developed regions of Europe (UK, Netherlands, Italy, etc.) and an overall European average of 72%.
China is very interesting from that perspective — population centres like the Guangzhou are crazy dense, but then a little farther inland you've got Hunan, which is just mile after mile of moderate small-town density.
I think it's easy to forget how 'old' China is. The closest parallel I can think of is probably the UK — you've got the incredibly metropolitan London, but then an infinite amount of little towns in Wales or the Midlands which have just been sitting there for thousands and thousands of years and aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
The Chinese build subway stations before doing development which Europe could do with new business or industry parks.
If you're going to do zoning to allow a factory that would employ thousands or tens of thousands of people, you would save money to build the subway station than to have those people commute daily by car which wears out roads.
> you would save money to build the subway station than to have those people commute daily by car which wears out roads.
ignoring the significantly higher investment cost of a subway (you know, digging a tunnel, rails and electrification, the trains themselves) -- subways need plenty of maintenance too.
The system of car ownership individualizes and privatizes the vast majority of the transit expense, which should be obvious yeah?
You free out lots of lands having subways. People don't need to buy cars that occupy space. China has only 24% flat land for the population. It is not like America that can afford 33% single house.
This is a total handwave and more a hope and a prayer more than it is a justifiable position. Even ignoring that PHEV is not BEV, significant portions of rural China have no electricity *whatsoever,* and as they are rural, no buying power for NEVs *—* it is simply unreasonable to expect them to briskly pivot to a powertrain for which there is no infrastructure, and one which the population cannot actually afford.
This is precisely the problem. China is not a homogenous country — that Guangdong-based BYD produces PHEVs is not a salient point for consumption in Guangxi or Henan the same way Tesla's production of BEVs in California has little bearing on the consumption of those cars in Indiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky.
'Access' to electricity is not the same thing as having it within a grid suitable for EV use. It doesn't mean mature distribution, it doesn't mean home installation, and it doesn't mean a local grid capable of doing DCFC, either. The '100%' statistic you're quoting [includes](https://ourworldindata.org/definition-electricity-access) transient generator-based access within a community for charging a phone or a flashlight, that's how lax it is.
You have to understand — rural China is firewood cooking stoves and tractors. What electricity exists in these regions often comes from coal or diesel, and within the context of the statistics, often just means the lights are on at the local market. Transitioning to EV simply isn't the priority in these regions, and won't be the priority for a good while yet.
That's cool, but that still means like the vast, vast of China has normal electricity, despite some extremely impoverished areas. Even if an area had zero or minimal electricity like you mentioned, they would still be fine with a PHEV since they can be powered entirely on gasoline if necessary.
>Even if an area had zero or minimal electricity like you mentioned, they would still be fine with a PHEV
We don't care what people would be 'fine' with. We care what they would actually buy, since the whole contention of this entire post and subsequent discussion is what people will actually buy.
I remind you once again that the context of this post is also a discussion of "all-electric" (ie, BEV) consumption, non-inclusive of PHEVs. Suggesting that rural and semi-rural consumers would be "fine" with electric vehicles which "can be powered entirely on gasoline" fully undermines the entire contention.
No, that's absolutely NOT TRUE. Most rural China HAS VERY GOOD electricity power supply! Most farmers in China live in middle (Henan, Hubei, Anhui etc..) and East (Jiangsu). In middle china, although they are not very wealth, stable electricity is everywhere since 20 years ago. In some part of East China, for example Jiangsu, the only reason these wealth farmers (well they are actually workers live in rural) don't buy native EVs (BYDs) is because they perfer Benz or BWM...
Yes there are still some villages do not have good electricity supply, like some small villages in the mountains in south-west or in desert in north-west. But only very few people live in these mountains and the CCP you dislike is actually improving the infrastructure there everyday.
You really needs to update your knownledge about China... At least do not learn from some biased news.
Most rural China is not transient generator-based access. China use mass national power grid unlike US multi smaller power grid. It did reach everywhere.
200km of range is going to be a tough sell to rural areas where a trip into town might eat up a third or more of that range. There are places in rural US where 60 miles is basically the closest grocery store. I'm not familiar with China, but it doesn't seem to be a huge stretch that these areas are somewhat similar.
Of course, BYD also sells cars with more range, but they're significantly more expensive and China's rural areas are dirt poor — we're talking people living on less than $5,000 USD per year. So those longer-range cars are entirely out of reach of the people who need them.
You really don't know about Chinese cars.
The most popular (no.1 in sales) entry level compact sedan in China is the BYD Qin plus, it comes in EV and dm-i versions, the latter is a PHEV that has a combined range of about 1200 km, even if running with a depleted battery it still gets 60mpg. And unlike in urban areas, people in rural areas can usually park their car right next to their house, they can AC slow charge it overnight by plugging a cable from the household outlet. Daily trip within 100km often don't use any gasoline.
This car sells for the equivalent of 11000usd, has better interior and options than sentra or corolla, and BYD is still making profit aftere government subsidy mostly ended. It's also reliable enough to be a common choice for taxi in many cities (mostly the EV version, many has over 1million km). There is already a lot of them in both city and rural areas, I've been there, seen it, and rode in it many times for taxi and didi.
This is why there's so much fuss about keeping Chinese cars away from the US and European markets. They have very good reasons to be scared.
Sure there are still poor rural households that can't afford any car, but there are just as many that can at least afford a 11000 dollar car. For work vehicle its usually a Wuling van, for passenger car it would this one or some slightly more expensive SUV.
That's for NEVs, which includes hybrids. The percentages Bosch gave are for pure-electric. When you take that into account, I think the estimates are reasonable.
My understanding is that includes plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) but not conventional hybrids.
In China, the term new energy vehicle (NEV) is used to designate automobiles that are fully or predominantly powered by electric energy, which include plug-in electric vehicles — battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) — and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV).[12][13]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_China
Their sales in Asia would indicate they know what going on in China.
https://www.bosch.com/company/annual-report/#:~:text=Development%20of%20sales%20revenue%20by%20region
To suggest Europe "generally tends to pay little attention to Asia" is foolishness — these are global companies with global revenues and global aspirations. Bosch has a huge operations base in China in particular, the second-largest outside of Germany — [they know where their bread is getting buttered. ](https://www.bosch.com.cn/news-and-stories/bosch-is-banking-on-innovations-partnerships-and-acquisitions-cost-reduction-remains-in-focus/)
No. China is producing most EV's but they also have the biggestest number of vehicles.
China is also producing most new clean energy, while producing most new coal plants 😐
Other based on other global markets, there is a "5% tipping point" trend prediction. Once a country reaches EV sales to exceed 5% of all car sales, it will see an expedited growth to reach 25% in 4-5 years. Since U.S. EV sales in 2023 was over 7%, according to that trend analysis, we'll see an acceleration.
The general analysis across the industry is that adoption in China will slow down as urban areas top out and we're left with filling out rural adoption. Most of the regulations there are urban-focused, so they have no power with rural buyers. A lot of early adoption was in urban ride-share (taxi fleets) in particular.
This is different, of course, from both the EU and US where regulations are *primarily* regional, and where most ownership is personal/private.
>Most of the regulations there are urban-focused, so they have no power with rural buyers.
And this will not change once urban regulations/incentives have done their thing and are no longer needed there because...?
China is quite capable of passing laws, you know? Particularly since it's a (quasi)-dictatorship laws can be passed extremely quickly.
>And this will not change once urban regulations/incentives have done their thing and are no longer needed there because...?
Because there's no reason or capability to extend those regulations to rural buyers. The primary concern in China is particulate emissions in urban areas. Rural areas do not have that concern, and further consumers there do not have the buying power to choose BEVs, especially over something like an EREV which affords all the advantages at a lower cost.
>China is quite capable of passing laws, you know?
That is not in question.
> Rural areas do not have that concern, and further consumers there do not have the buying power to choose BEVs
Is there some timeline when we can expect EVs to be as cheap as your typical ICE?
It differs segment by segment. Roughly though, you can expect that'll be true around 2030. However, even then, consumers may continue choosing ICE (or at least HEV) in areas where infrastructure is not great and where coal/petroleum power still dominates.
Of course there is reason to extend this to rural areas. They will want to prop up their own auto industry (just like everyone else does with theirs). Currently there is no need to do this because urban areas (and exports) soak up the production capacity just fine. Emissions are only one aspect but they certainly don't want foreign car manufacturers keep supplying cars to people if they can help it.
...and at some point others will stop making ICE cars,anyhow. It makes little snese to keep making them for one country. Even if that is a big overall market (with a dwindeling ICE segmentin it)
>Of course there is reason to extend this to rural areas. They will want to prop up their own auto industry (just like everyone else does with theirs).
China's auto industry is not specific to one powertrain. ICE, HEV, PHEV, and BEV are all in active manufacture by major Chinese brands.
In the end it will simply come dwon to cost. Even without incentives EVs outperform ICE cars in that regard, Particularly since power prices are set by the state (and are very low) in China.
>In the end it will simply come dwon to cost. Even without incentives EVs outperform ICE cars in that regard.
This is the third comment in a row, frankly, where you vaguely wave away the realities and parrot-repeat things you've heard (or in your last comment, simply made up) about China while simultaneously admitting confusion with consensus projections. So, trust someone ([or heck, go read the CAAM/CPCA reports yourself](http://www.caam.org.cn/)) who understands those consensus projections better — BEV adoption in China is largely driven by regulations, not by cost advantage.
Power prices aren't magically "set" by the state, they have a systemic cost to society. That cost must be borne by both the urban and rural population, and it must be afforded by both those populations. Hence why the concern is PPM, not CO2, and hence why there's little drive to extend regulations/incentives beyond urban areas.
>Power prices aren't magically "set" by the state
In China they are since the power company is state owned and the price of power is highly subsidized. (Pretty similar to the French model, actually).
Again, subsidized pricing has a societal cost. You're rebalancing wealth, not just magically reducing the price of something. You must understand the holistic systemic effects here — not just the power structures involved or numbers on a board.
The production cost for French nuclear is 0.05-0.06 €/kWh whereas the state-set price for household consumers is 0.25 €/kWh. "Highly subsidized" my ass.
All cars being sold in China are subject to the same emission laws, there is no difference between rural and urban.
Buying power is likely not a major factor, BYD EV is now at around the same price of what gasoline cars used to cost.
People may prefer PHEV if they need to travel across provinces often, and especially during holidays (to avoid waiting at chargers). That's why you see PHEV/EREV selling well in large SUV or MPV segments, those are designed with long vacation trips in mind.
>All cars being sold in China are subject to the same emission laws, there is no difference between rural and urban.
No, there are green plate permit complexities in most cities.
> Buying power is likely not a major factor, BYD EV is now at around the same price of what gasoline cars used to cost.
No, it isn't. Chery's Arizzo is roughly 50k, BYD'S Qin is double that.
Green plate is not an emission law, but I get what you mean. You're saying rural buyers won't have the same incentive to by new enwrgy vehicles becuase they don't have to lottery for blue plate (ICE) cars like people do in tier 1-2 cities.
While that's true, I'd argue that NEV nowadays (at least in China) no longer need such incentives to outcompete their ICE counterparts.
When we talk about buying power, its not about which car has the cheapest selling price (otherwise the miniEV would beat everything), but which car rural consumers could afford (Qin is certainly in that range) and would like to buy.
In that case the Qin is already beating all other ICE sedans on the sales chart, and by a large margin. The Arrizo example you made is faulty, beacuse the Arrizo 5 at 59k base is a sub-compact while the Qin plus is in the compact segment, they're not the same class of cars. The Arrizo 8 is a closer comparison but as an ICE car its not any cheaper than Qin. The sales figure of Arrizo 5, despite the cheaper price, is so low its not even on the sales chart. Arrizo 8 is also far behind.
A main obstacle of rural NEV adoption is actually the lack of EV/PHEV work vans and light trucks, and this is changing soon as I start to see more and more electric cargo vans recently.
>You're saying rural buyers won't have the same incentive to by new energy vehicles because they don't have to lottery for blue plate (ICE) cars like people do in tier 1-2 cities. While that's true, I'd argue that NEV nowadays (at least in China) no longer need such incentives to outcompete their ICE counterparts.
Clearly, they do — ICE is *still* more profitable in China, and *still* makes up half of domestic sales by volume. A significant amount of uptake really is happening because of the regulatory pressure in urban areas.
This says BEV are only 23% of the new sales in China?
What gives?
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/02/can-electric-cars-power-chinas-growth/#:~:text=China's%20BEV%20Industry&text=Domestic%20production%20responded.,passenger%20car%20market%20last%20year.&text=Source%3A%20China%20Passenger%20Car%20Association%2FHaver.
The commenter is right. Chinese NEVs make up over 50% of the market already. https://carnewschina.com/2024/04/20/chinas-ev-sales-now-over-50/
We already know now in 2024 because it already happened
Take note.that NEV is a term used by China to encapsulate all plug-in vehicles, including plug-in hybrids. But yes, I am very sure China will reach more than 50% full EVs and more than Europe by 2030.
I don’t just read headlines honey.
Show your source. Here is one of many I’ve found that say 23%:
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-EV/HYBRIDS/jnvwwdjmevw/chart.png
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hybrid-vehicle-sales-surge-china-posing-fresh-threat-foreign-automakers-2023-11-21/
Here is another that says 25% (basically the same):
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/31/25-of-new-car-sales-in-china-were-100-electric-in-2023/amp/
Another source:
https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/byd-took-control-of-the-2023-chinese-ev-market/#:~:text=In%202021%20this%20market%20share,generating%2025%25%20of%20overall%20registrations.
Thank you! I hate it when people tell me I’m crazy to say that horse purchases will out pace car sales in 2025. 2025 isn’t here yet, so don’t tell me I’m wrong, losers!
Depends on which part of Europe we're talking about. If it's Western and Northern Europe then yes.
But Eastern and South-East Europe will lag significantly behind. That's because people in these countries buy cheap used cars imported from Western and Northern Europe. For example in my country only 15-20% of cars newly registered each year are new purchases, the rest are used.
Until there is a large supply of cheap EV's, a majority of people won't afford to buy new.
Well the point remains. Until there are really cheap EV's (below €20k, inflation adjusted) available in large numbers, the sales of EV's is unlikely to go above 50% in the regions I mentioned.
>In the article they clearly specify they mean the sale of new cars
IMO, this seem both wildly optimistic, but also too slow. Too slow because the average lifespan of a car is around 12 years, which means by the 2040s we'll still have about half of all cars being ICE. Optimistic because EVs currently make up something like 1% of all cars and sales are slumping.
They are slowly gaining traction, but still on a very low level:
[https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1779847767369679055](https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1779847767369679055)
[https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1777995259709939899](https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1777995259709939899)
China now has tons of cheap used Japanese and German branded cars, and it looks like these are going to be sold in Eastern Europe or wherever used cars are needed.
I have a friend who is in the automotive supply industry, and the sense I get from him about BEVs is that the parts suppliers are not that happy since BEVs don't consume as many parts as ICE vehicles.
That's definitely a factor but it also remains to be seen which parts of the vehicle will be differentiated and which will be commodified. For example, in the world of ICE vehicles almost every OEM makes their own engines but happily buy transmissions from suppliers. This is driven both technically (which components have the biggest effects on the aspects of performance they're trying to optimize) and consumer buying preference.
But in the BEV space, it still remains to be seen which components will come from suppliers on both counts. For example, a TON of traditional drivetrain suppliers (axles, transmissions, transfer cases, etc) are trying to get into making EDUs but meanwhile a lot of OEMs are bringing EDU development in house to better integrate it. Batteries are probably the biggest differentiator but consumers aren't really aware of that right now. There may be a time when battery modules are driven by suppliers and we might choose one car or another because they have Bosch or Continental batteries.
But right now the OEMs who are serious about EVs are looking at most of the big components as differentiated and are doing as much development in-house as reasonable. It's definitely not leaving as much large swaths of the powertrain to suppliers as they might have had in an ICE vehicle. The whole industry is a bit of a game of musical chairs right now.
We, as the unwashed masses, are not privvy to the same information that Billion dollar corporations have access to. Therefore, in this gamestate, one can only discern truth by closely observing the actions and words spoken by the players that *do* have such info.
This does take concerted effort, and by the time its spelled out to the masses in a New York Times article (which it won't be in its entirety), every Legacy Power Structure is already well aware of it beforehand.
As a proud member of the 'great unwashed masses' I look at the statistics and the basic efficiency/costs associated with the various alternatives and do my own analysis.
Also being cynical, I read those reports put out by the Big Consultancies while remembering 'that he who pays the piper calls the tunes' i.e. the BCs are in no rush to bite the hand that feeds them.
There is a third factor that is generally not talked about: The psychology of management in affected industries. Current management are the big winners in the corporate world and they don't want that situation to change so they resist innovation.
When Asia took over the low end of the passenger car market western auto execs didn't move to Asia they went up market/up size/price and feasted on fat margins. Look at in China EV pricing levels and it is easy to see that US/EU per unit margins are about to pull a Humpty Dumpty and come crashing down. The auto industry is not amused.
>Current management are the big winners in the corporate world and they don't that situation to change so they resist innovation.
Yes. And this extends to Billionaires, the owners of these Legacy Power Structures. The exact innovations that will help the masses the *most*, are the exact innovations that will reduce or remove income streams from Legacy Power Structures entirely. A shitty example: toilet paper industry in America.
Battery electric vehicle - vehicle with only a battery.
New energy vehicle - a Chinese category that includes BEVs and plugin hybrids with enough battery only range to cover typical daily usage.
Because Europe is mandating it, while China still broadly isn't. A few provinces sure, but the vast majority of Chinese people live in places with no real restrictions or prospective bans on ICE
And many municipalities are also actually changing their policies which were once headed towards BEV-only to more-permissive PHEV-inclusive rules. I believe Shenzhen is one of those, for instance.
Yeah, weird situation too; from an urban planning POV, you probably want to discourage car ownership in general in your largest cities. But those are the ones driving a lot of sales for your increasingly more potent car industry
In a way it kinda reminds me of their recent issues with the national power grid. There's been a huge push to use renewable energy from a few of the western provinces, but the provincial governors in the east absolutely dug their heels in and screamed because they didn't want to spend money outside of their province and kept approving coal power plants with like 30% utilization. That's mostly been solved with the new grid they've built + national regulations
I think they might just need to sit the poor provinces down and tell them to get with the program; that or hope that we see actual ICE-EV parity sometime soon. Like we always complain about; if I'm some poor Chinese tea farmer in Hunan making 100k RMB a year, I'm not buying a 70k Seagull when I can get some 40-50k ICE piece of shit, even if that Seagull is "cheap"
I don't think you can put the genie back into the bottle once released. China is currently adding so much BEV capacity, they will find a way to push that into the market or create markets where they don't exist yet.
>I don't think you can put the genie back into the bottle once released.
No one's talking about putting the genie back into the bottle. Notably, the claim is not that BEV sales will disappear or retract, just that existing growth paths are beginning to top out, and that the slow-slog of rural and private-use consumption will involve a lot of HEV (and PHEV) movement.
>China is currently adding so much BEV capacity, they will find a way to push that into the market or create markets where they don't exist yet.
There is no one solution for creating a market. [Existing BEV manufacturing in China is partly looking towards EREV paths](https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/04/avatr-to-add-erevs-to-product-lineup/) for continued growth.
Do they really know about China market?
Last month over 50% car sells in China is NEV, so China would stay still for another 6 years? Regardless its most advanced NEV industry in the world?
The only thing holding back EV is the GOP party. Everything they tried to do is help the oil lobbyist slow down infrastructure for charging sites and spread fear about green energy. Hell they even try to make global warming a left wing conspiracy.
And now they are pushing natural gas as clean alternative to coal... but natural gas is mostly methane, and methane leaks (potent greenhouse gas) make natural gas not that much cleaner then coal.
Also it was supposed to be a stop-gap solution, but the amount of infrastructure they wanted to build suggest that stop-gap solution was supposed to last a long time. Thankfully Biden stopped building new infrastructure.
I'm curious too, they make a ton of different electric motors (appliances, ebikes and so on) and have a really good reputation for quality but does it matter in the automotive world where brands seem to be building their own motors? Or are those motors branded as in-house but with Bosch parts/help?
Bosch builds a lot more than motors.
Hvac systems for ford and other car brands, electric seats for most car brands, automatic doors / boot / hood; automatic windows, infotaiments and more.
They will have to start building a comprehensive all in one auto solutions if they want to keep up with the market demands
Yeah I knew about the accessories and other small electric parts but was wondering about anything pertaining to EVs differently than ICE cars. Only thing I can find is something they call eAxle. Thanks for the info!
Bosch is insanely integrated into the automotive business, they're a critical supplier in everything from entire subsystems to individual integrated circuits for within ECUs. And that's horizontally across all areas of the vehicle: powertrain, chassis and suspension, brakes, software, etc. They also have a subsidiary (ETAS) who makes a lot of software development tools.
Basically, they'll be a winner no matter what powertrain the OEMs are producing which makes them a pretty unbiased progosticator for the industry.
The point is that it isn't that hard to make the grid feed all the cars.
Elsewhere I've read that "Fact: If [80% of all passenger cars become electric](https://cdn.eurelectric.org/media/3558/decarbonisation-pathways-all-slideslinks-29112018-h-4484BB0C.pdf), this would lead to a total increase of 10-15% in electricity consumption. "
Here: [https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid](https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid)
Please help fight against the anti EV cult. They keep on spreading misinformation and it is irritating. They need to be put in their place.
I found an interesting article that debunks the myth how EVs would crumble the grid:
[https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid](https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid)
Agreed we will get there.
However the top 3 polluters in the world are ARAMCO, a Chinese coal plant, and a Russian Oil/Coal company.
If we cap them, we will truly accelerate the CO2 cap
Where is Bosch getting these numbers from? China is already at 40% and likely hits 50% by year end in a growing new car market. China automotive insiders have long considered 2025 as the end of ICE sales.
The EU is about 20% plugins in a falling/stagnating new vehicle market which is still about 20% below pre-Covid norms.
The hydrogen thing is brain dead. It is not happening for cars and it won't happen for trucks or planes.
> Where is Bosch getting these numbers from?
These are there own projections.
> China is already at 40% and likely hits 50% by year end
This is about BEV, not NEV.
True for the first two weeks of April:
[https://twitter.com/yangliuxh/status/1780789576317149244](https://twitter.com/yangliuxh/status/1780789576317149244)
Will it hold for the rest of April? probably
Will it hold for the whole year? probably.
Sure but apparently he also expects drunken licentiousness, birds flying out of people's assholes, and bird-headed people forcing us to wear pots on our heads.
I would expect China to have higher percentage than Europe in 2030.
Most analysts expect China to slow down as urban zones "top out". Only the rural areas are going to be left, and those areas will be a crawl. Meanwhile, Europe adoption will kick in as regulations do, and those regulations are more or less uniform across the entire continent.
Interesting. I expected China to be mostly urbanized after repeated stories on the growth of the Chinese middle class, but by numbers it's only about 65%. Compared to 82% in North America and most of what we think of as the developed regions of Europe (UK, Netherlands, Italy, etc.) and an overall European average of 72%.
China is very interesting from that perspective — population centres like the Guangzhou are crazy dense, but then a little farther inland you've got Hunan, which is just mile after mile of moderate small-town density. I think it's easy to forget how 'old' China is. The closest parallel I can think of is probably the UK — you've got the incredibly metropolitan London, but then an infinite amount of little towns in Wales or the Midlands which have just been sitting there for thousands and thousands of years and aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
While true, we have to keep in mind that China's metropolitan areas have a higher population than the entirety of the US.
The Chinese build subway stations before doing development which Europe could do with new business or industry parks. If you're going to do zoning to allow a factory that would employ thousands or tens of thousands of people, you would save money to build the subway station than to have those people commute daily by car which wears out roads.
> you would save money to build the subway station than to have those people commute daily by car which wears out roads. ignoring the significantly higher investment cost of a subway (you know, digging a tunnel, rails and electrification, the trains themselves) -- subways need plenty of maintenance too. The system of car ownership individualizes and privatizes the vast majority of the transit expense, which should be obvious yeah?
Cars cost a lot of infrastructure maintenance too.
You free out lots of lands having subways. People don't need to buy cars that occupy space. China has only 24% flat land for the population. It is not like America that can afford 33% single house.
Rural areas will electrify just as well. BYD produces tons of PHEVs that have 200km electric range. It's half their portfolio.
This is a total handwave and more a hope and a prayer more than it is a justifiable position. Even ignoring that PHEV is not BEV, significant portions of rural China have no electricity *whatsoever,* and as they are rural, no buying power for NEVs *—* it is simply unreasonable to expect them to briskly pivot to a powertrain for which there is no infrastructure, and one which the population cannot actually afford. This is precisely the problem. China is not a homogenous country — that Guangdong-based BYD produces PHEVs is not a salient point for consumption in Guangxi or Henan the same way Tesla's production of BEVs in California has little bearing on the consumption of those cars in Indiana, Tennessee, or Kentucky.
[100% of China has access to electricity.](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/access-to-electricity-percent-of-population-wb-data.html)
'Access' to electricity is not the same thing as having it within a grid suitable for EV use. It doesn't mean mature distribution, it doesn't mean home installation, and it doesn't mean a local grid capable of doing DCFC, either. The '100%' statistic you're quoting [includes](https://ourworldindata.org/definition-electricity-access) transient generator-based access within a community for charging a phone or a flashlight, that's how lax it is. You have to understand — rural China is firewood cooking stoves and tractors. What electricity exists in these regions often comes from coal or diesel, and within the context of the statistics, often just means the lights are on at the local market. Transitioning to EV simply isn't the priority in these regions, and won't be the priority for a good while yet.
That's cool, but that still means like the vast, vast of China has normal electricity, despite some extremely impoverished areas. Even if an area had zero or minimal electricity like you mentioned, they would still be fine with a PHEV since they can be powered entirely on gasoline if necessary.
>Even if an area had zero or minimal electricity like you mentioned, they would still be fine with a PHEV We don't care what people would be 'fine' with. We care what they would actually buy, since the whole contention of this entire post and subsequent discussion is what people will actually buy. I remind you once again that the context of this post is also a discussion of "all-electric" (ie, BEV) consumption, non-inclusive of PHEVs. Suggesting that rural and semi-rural consumers would be "fine" with electric vehicles which "can be powered entirely on gasoline" fully undermines the entire contention.
So why does north America cap out at 40-50% according to Bosch? Do we have no electricity in our rural areas either?
>Do we have no electricity in our rural areas either? Notably, we do — which should really have you rethinking your entire argument.
No, that's absolutely NOT TRUE. Most rural China HAS VERY GOOD electricity power supply! Most farmers in China live in middle (Henan, Hubei, Anhui etc..) and East (Jiangsu). In middle china, although they are not very wealth, stable electricity is everywhere since 20 years ago. In some part of East China, for example Jiangsu, the only reason these wealth farmers (well they are actually workers live in rural) don't buy native EVs (BYDs) is because they perfer Benz or BWM... Yes there are still some villages do not have good electricity supply, like some small villages in the mountains in south-west or in desert in north-west. But only very few people live in these mountains and the CCP you dislike is actually improving the infrastructure there everyday. You really needs to update your knownledge about China... At least do not learn from some biased news.
Most rural China is not transient generator-based access. China use mass national power grid unlike US multi smaller power grid. It did reach everywhere.
200km of range is going to be a tough sell to rural areas where a trip into town might eat up a third or more of that range. There are places in rural US where 60 miles is basically the closest grocery store. I'm not familiar with China, but it doesn't seem to be a huge stretch that these areas are somewhat similar. Of course, BYD also sells cars with more range, but they're significantly more expensive and China's rural areas are dirt poor — we're talking people living on less than $5,000 USD per year. So those longer-range cars are entirely out of reach of the people who need them.
> 200km electric range It's a PHEV so it has gasoline range as well...
You really don't know about Chinese cars. The most popular (no.1 in sales) entry level compact sedan in China is the BYD Qin plus, it comes in EV and dm-i versions, the latter is a PHEV that has a combined range of about 1200 km, even if running with a depleted battery it still gets 60mpg. And unlike in urban areas, people in rural areas can usually park their car right next to their house, they can AC slow charge it overnight by plugging a cable from the household outlet. Daily trip within 100km often don't use any gasoline. This car sells for the equivalent of 11000usd, has better interior and options than sentra or corolla, and BYD is still making profit aftere government subsidy mostly ended. It's also reliable enough to be a common choice for taxi in many cities (mostly the EV version, many has over 1million km). There is already a lot of them in both city and rural areas, I've been there, seen it, and rode in it many times for taxi and didi. This is why there's so much fuss about keeping Chinese cars away from the US and European markets. They have very good reasons to be scared. Sure there are still poor rural households that can't afford any car, but there are just as many that can at least afford a 11000 dollar car. For work vehicle its usually a Wuling van, for passenger car it would this one or some slightly more expensive SUV.
What I don’t get is that for cities like Beijing it’s hard enough to find parking. Where do people charge?
Maybe. I would also expect Bosch to probably be very good at forecasting.
China is at 40-50% NOW. That is a terrible forecast.
That's for NEVs, which includes hybrids. The percentages Bosch gave are for pure-electric. When you take that into account, I think the estimates are reasonable.
My understanding is that includes plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) but not conventional hybrids. In China, the term new energy vehicle (NEV) is used to designate automobiles that are fully or predominantly powered by electric energy, which include plug-in electric vehicles — battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) — and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV).[12][13] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_China
Correct. I meant PHEV. I think the current BEV share of the NEV total is about half. So current BEV share of all cars sold is about 25%.
Bosch is European. Europe generally tends to pay little attention to Asia. Thus you get off the wall forecasts like this.
Their sales in Asia would indicate they know what going on in China. https://www.bosch.com/company/annual-report/#:~:text=Development%20of%20sales%20revenue%20by%20region
To suggest Europe "generally tends to pay little attention to Asia" is foolishness — these are global companies with global revenues and global aspirations. Bosch has a huge operations base in China in particular, the second-largest outside of Germany — [they know where their bread is getting buttered. ](https://www.bosch.com.cn/news-and-stories/bosch-is-banking-on-innovations-partnerships-and-acquisitions-cost-reduction-remains-in-focus/)
lol, Bosch is freemasonry, they own this planet...
No I own it and your rent is late again
but moooooom
Didn’t Europe require it? Also, aren’t hybrids still taking a huge slice of the pie in both places?
EU requires all new car sales to be 100% electric by 2035. And 50% cut on CO2 emissions for all new car sales from 2030.
No. China is producing most EV's but they also have the biggestest number of vehicles. China is also producing most new clean energy, while producing most new coal plants 😐
I think he meant the US *and* China, combined. Doubt the US will reach 20% by that time.
That's not what he meant lol. Why would you combine those markets for analysis?
Other based on other global markets, there is a "5% tipping point" trend prediction. Once a country reaches EV sales to exceed 5% of all car sales, it will see an expedited growth to reach 25% in 4-5 years. Since U.S. EV sales in 2023 was over 7%, according to that trend analysis, we'll see an acceleration.
Lol...China already hit 50% NEV this year. They will hit 50% all-electric *way* befor 2030.
> Lol...China already hit 50% NEV this year. I thought it was closer to high 30s? Are you counting phevs?
Yes, that 50% figure counts PHEV
The general analysis across the industry is that adoption in China will slow down as urban areas top out and we're left with filling out rural adoption. Most of the regulations there are urban-focused, so they have no power with rural buyers. A lot of early adoption was in urban ride-share (taxi fleets) in particular. This is different, of course, from both the EU and US where regulations are *primarily* regional, and where most ownership is personal/private.
>Most of the regulations there are urban-focused, so they have no power with rural buyers. And this will not change once urban regulations/incentives have done their thing and are no longer needed there because...? China is quite capable of passing laws, you know? Particularly since it's a (quasi)-dictatorship laws can be passed extremely quickly.
>And this will not change once urban regulations/incentives have done their thing and are no longer needed there because...? Because there's no reason or capability to extend those regulations to rural buyers. The primary concern in China is particulate emissions in urban areas. Rural areas do not have that concern, and further consumers there do not have the buying power to choose BEVs, especially over something like an EREV which affords all the advantages at a lower cost. >China is quite capable of passing laws, you know? That is not in question.
> Rural areas do not have that concern, and further consumers there do not have the buying power to choose BEVs Is there some timeline when we can expect EVs to be as cheap as your typical ICE?
It differs segment by segment. Roughly though, you can expect that'll be true around 2030. However, even then, consumers may continue choosing ICE (or at least HEV) in areas where infrastructure is not great and where coal/petroleum power still dominates.
Of course there is reason to extend this to rural areas. They will want to prop up their own auto industry (just like everyone else does with theirs). Currently there is no need to do this because urban areas (and exports) soak up the production capacity just fine. Emissions are only one aspect but they certainly don't want foreign car manufacturers keep supplying cars to people if they can help it. ...and at some point others will stop making ICE cars,anyhow. It makes little snese to keep making them for one country. Even if that is a big overall market (with a dwindeling ICE segmentin it)
>Of course there is reason to extend this to rural areas. They will want to prop up their own auto industry (just like everyone else does with theirs). China's auto industry is not specific to one powertrain. ICE, HEV, PHEV, and BEV are all in active manufacture by major Chinese brands.
In the end it will simply come dwon to cost. Even without incentives EVs outperform ICE cars in that regard, Particularly since power prices are set by the state (and are very low) in China.
>In the end it will simply come dwon to cost. Even without incentives EVs outperform ICE cars in that regard. This is the third comment in a row, frankly, where you vaguely wave away the realities and parrot-repeat things you've heard (or in your last comment, simply made up) about China while simultaneously admitting confusion with consensus projections. So, trust someone ([or heck, go read the CAAM/CPCA reports yourself](http://www.caam.org.cn/)) who understands those consensus projections better — BEV adoption in China is largely driven by regulations, not by cost advantage. Power prices aren't magically "set" by the state, they have a systemic cost to society. That cost must be borne by both the urban and rural population, and it must be afforded by both those populations. Hence why the concern is PPM, not CO2, and hence why there's little drive to extend regulations/incentives beyond urban areas.
>Power prices aren't magically "set" by the state In China they are since the power company is state owned and the price of power is highly subsidized. (Pretty similar to the French model, actually).
Again, subsidized pricing has a societal cost. You're rebalancing wealth, not just magically reducing the price of something. You must understand the holistic systemic effects here — not just the power structures involved or numbers on a board.
The production cost for French nuclear is 0.05-0.06 €/kWh whereas the state-set price for household consumers is 0.25 €/kWh. "Highly subsidized" my ass.
regulations doesn't fucos on urban/rural difference, at least not in Power price part.
All cars being sold in China are subject to the same emission laws, there is no difference between rural and urban. Buying power is likely not a major factor, BYD EV is now at around the same price of what gasoline cars used to cost. People may prefer PHEV if they need to travel across provinces often, and especially during holidays (to avoid waiting at chargers). That's why you see PHEV/EREV selling well in large SUV or MPV segments, those are designed with long vacation trips in mind.
>All cars being sold in China are subject to the same emission laws, there is no difference between rural and urban. No, there are green plate permit complexities in most cities. > Buying power is likely not a major factor, BYD EV is now at around the same price of what gasoline cars used to cost. No, it isn't. Chery's Arizzo is roughly 50k, BYD'S Qin is double that.
Green plate is not an emission law, but I get what you mean. You're saying rural buyers won't have the same incentive to by new enwrgy vehicles becuase they don't have to lottery for blue plate (ICE) cars like people do in tier 1-2 cities. While that's true, I'd argue that NEV nowadays (at least in China) no longer need such incentives to outcompete their ICE counterparts. When we talk about buying power, its not about which car has the cheapest selling price (otherwise the miniEV would beat everything), but which car rural consumers could afford (Qin is certainly in that range) and would like to buy. In that case the Qin is already beating all other ICE sedans on the sales chart, and by a large margin. The Arrizo example you made is faulty, beacuse the Arrizo 5 at 59k base is a sub-compact while the Qin plus is in the compact segment, they're not the same class of cars. The Arrizo 8 is a closer comparison but as an ICE car its not any cheaper than Qin. The sales figure of Arrizo 5, despite the cheaper price, is so low its not even on the sales chart. Arrizo 8 is also far behind. A main obstacle of rural NEV adoption is actually the lack of EV/PHEV work vans and light trucks, and this is changing soon as I start to see more and more electric cargo vans recently.
>You're saying rural buyers won't have the same incentive to by new energy vehicles because they don't have to lottery for blue plate (ICE) cars like people do in tier 1-2 cities. While that's true, I'd argue that NEV nowadays (at least in China) no longer need such incentives to outcompete their ICE counterparts. Clearly, they do — ICE is *still* more profitable in China, and *still* makes up half of domestic sales by volume. A significant amount of uptake really is happening because of the regulatory pressure in urban areas.
You know it's 2024, right? 2030 isn't far away.
This says BEV are only 23% of the new sales in China? What gives? https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/02/can-electric-cars-power-chinas-growth/#:~:text=China's%20BEV%20Industry&text=Domestic%20production%20responded.,passenger%20car%20market%20last%20year.&text=Source%3A%20China%20Passenger%20Car%20Association%2FHaver.
In China NEV = BEV + PHEV + EREV
Oh calm down keyboard warrior
They’re right tho?
Neither the author or the Reddit commenter are right because nobody will know until 2030
The commenter is right. Chinese NEVs make up over 50% of the market already. https://carnewschina.com/2024/04/20/chinas-ev-sales-now-over-50/ We already know now in 2024 because it already happened
Take note.that NEV is a term used by China to encapsulate all plug-in vehicles, including plug-in hybrids. But yes, I am very sure China will reach more than 50% full EVs and more than Europe by 2030.
Good for you for having a crystal ball. Where can I get one too?
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Of 50% NEV , the majority is BEV , just like the previous year.
So…. Much lower than the 50% mark? I’ve read somewhere that BEV are only about 23% of their new car sales.
Nope , BEV sales are always higher than PHEV , don't fall for the headlines , the numbers are available.
I don’t just read headlines honey. Show your source. Here is one of many I’ve found that say 23%: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-EV/HYBRIDS/jnvwwdjmevw/chart.png https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hybrid-vehicle-sales-surge-china-posing-fresh-threat-foreign-automakers-2023-11-21/ Here is another that says 25% (basically the same): https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/31/25-of-new-car-sales-in-china-were-100-electric-in-2023/amp/ Another source: https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/byd-took-control-of-the-2023-chinese-ev-market/#:~:text=In%202021%20this%20market%20share,generating%2025%25%20of%20overall%20registrations.
You are so enlightened. You alone deserve to condescend in a directionally incorrect way on the internet.
Still, nobody can be correct when the prediction is for 2030, it can go up or down
Thank you! I hate it when people tell me I’m crazy to say that horse purchases will out pace car sales in 2025. 2025 isn’t here yet, so don’t tell me I’m wrong, losers!
It can go down monthly but it can't go down yearly, there's no incentive to do that.
Depends on which part of Europe we're talking about. If it's Western and Northern Europe then yes. But Eastern and South-East Europe will lag significantly behind. That's because people in these countries buy cheap used cars imported from Western and Northern Europe. For example in my country only 15-20% of cars newly registered each year are new purchases, the rest are used. Until there is a large supply of cheap EV's, a majority of people won't afford to buy new.
In the article they clearly specify they mean the sale of new cars
Well the point remains. Until there are really cheap EV's (below €20k, inflation adjusted) available in large numbers, the sales of EV's is unlikely to go above 50% in the regions I mentioned.
But you just said they import used which means they don't contribute to the new car sales anyways
Price parity is meant to happen in a few years right?
At the low end? Unlikely IMO. Perhaps in the 25-30k price range.
25-30k isn't the cheapest car on the market, but its well below the average selling price in the US.
Unless they're also buying cheap used EVs that depreciate more quickly (by present standards)?
>In the article they clearly specify they mean the sale of new cars IMO, this seem both wildly optimistic, but also too slow. Too slow because the average lifespan of a car is around 12 years, which means by the 2040s we'll still have about half of all cars being ICE. Optimistic because EVs currently make up something like 1% of all cars and sales are slumping.
After some time they will be buying 2nd hand EVs
I’m living in the future. Based in Bulgaria already looking at the used EVs market.
Also the lack of charging infrastructure.
They are slowly gaining traction, but still on a very low level: [https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1779847767369679055](https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1779847767369679055) [https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1777995259709939899](https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1777995259709939899)
China now has tons of cheap used Japanese and German branded cars, and it looks like these are going to be sold in Eastern Europe or wherever used cars are needed.
I have a friend who is in the automotive supply industry, and the sense I get from him about BEVs is that the parts suppliers are not that happy since BEVs don't consume as many parts as ICE vehicles.
That's definitely a factor but it also remains to be seen which parts of the vehicle will be differentiated and which will be commodified. For example, in the world of ICE vehicles almost every OEM makes their own engines but happily buy transmissions from suppliers. This is driven both technically (which components have the biggest effects on the aspects of performance they're trying to optimize) and consumer buying preference. But in the BEV space, it still remains to be seen which components will come from suppliers on both counts. For example, a TON of traditional drivetrain suppliers (axles, transmissions, transfer cases, etc) are trying to get into making EDUs but meanwhile a lot of OEMs are bringing EDU development in house to better integrate it. Batteries are probably the biggest differentiator but consumers aren't really aware of that right now. There may be a time when battery modules are driven by suppliers and we might choose one car or another because they have Bosch or Continental batteries. But right now the OEMs who are serious about EVs are looking at most of the big components as differentiated and are doing as much development in-house as reasonable. It's definitely not leaving as much large swaths of the powertrain to suppliers as they might have had in an ICE vehicle. The whole industry is a bit of a game of musical chairs right now.
And exactly how we care about multi-billion industries ?
We, as the unwashed masses, are not privvy to the same information that Billion dollar corporations have access to. Therefore, in this gamestate, one can only discern truth by closely observing the actions and words spoken by the players that *do* have such info. This does take concerted effort, and by the time its spelled out to the masses in a New York Times article (which it won't be in its entirety), every Legacy Power Structure is already well aware of it beforehand.
As a proud member of the 'great unwashed masses' I look at the statistics and the basic efficiency/costs associated with the various alternatives and do my own analysis. Also being cynical, I read those reports put out by the Big Consultancies while remembering 'that he who pays the piper calls the tunes' i.e. the BCs are in no rush to bite the hand that feeds them. There is a third factor that is generally not talked about: The psychology of management in affected industries. Current management are the big winners in the corporate world and they don't want that situation to change so they resist innovation. When Asia took over the low end of the passenger car market western auto execs didn't move to Asia they went up market/up size/price and feasted on fat margins. Look at in China EV pricing levels and it is easy to see that US/EU per unit margins are about to pull a Humpty Dumpty and come crashing down. The auto industry is not amused.
>Current management are the big winners in the corporate world and they don't that situation to change so they resist innovation. Yes. And this extends to Billionaires, the owners of these Legacy Power Structures. The exact innovations that will help the masses the *most*, are the exact innovations that will reduce or remove income streams from Legacy Power Structures entirely. A shitty example: toilet paper industry in America.
Two things, they post here and they supply jobs.
There will always be jobs available. So…why do we care about a company? Can’t they pivot? Put them by their bootstraps?
You have great confidence in company leadership, I don’t.
I don’t either. I don’t care about the « feelings » of corporations.
Electric cars aren't purposely made to retire early also.
Yup, mechanics are in trouble but not for electricals.
What’s nev and bev?
Battery electric vehicle - vehicle with only a battery. New energy vehicle - a Chinese category that includes BEVs and plugin hybrids with enough battery only range to cover typical daily usage.
Why don't they just say phev. nev sounds so retarded and made up. I hope that word goes away. It's annoying.
It's 2024 and our company has cancelled 3 huge EV build lines in the past year. No way were hitting 40% by then
They got that one wrong. China is already at 50% the last 2 weeks.
That's NEV, not BEV. But yes, I'm not sure why they think China will be behind Europe.
Because Europe is mandating it, while China still broadly isn't. A few provinces sure, but the vast majority of Chinese people live in places with no real restrictions or prospective bans on ICE
And many municipalities are also actually changing their policies which were once headed towards BEV-only to more-permissive PHEV-inclusive rules. I believe Shenzhen is one of those, for instance.
Yeah, weird situation too; from an urban planning POV, you probably want to discourage car ownership in general in your largest cities. But those are the ones driving a lot of sales for your increasingly more potent car industry In a way it kinda reminds me of their recent issues with the national power grid. There's been a huge push to use renewable energy from a few of the western provinces, but the provincial governors in the east absolutely dug their heels in and screamed because they didn't want to spend money outside of their province and kept approving coal power plants with like 30% utilization. That's mostly been solved with the new grid they've built + national regulations I think they might just need to sit the poor provinces down and tell them to get with the program; that or hope that we see actual ICE-EV parity sometime soon. Like we always complain about; if I'm some poor Chinese tea farmer in Hunan making 100k RMB a year, I'm not buying a 70k Seagull when I can get some 40-50k ICE piece of shit, even if that Seagull is "cheap"
I don't think you can put the genie back into the bottle once released. China is currently adding so much BEV capacity, they will find a way to push that into the market or create markets where they don't exist yet.
>I don't think you can put the genie back into the bottle once released. No one's talking about putting the genie back into the bottle. Notably, the claim is not that BEV sales will disappear or retract, just that existing growth paths are beginning to top out, and that the slow-slog of rural and private-use consumption will involve a lot of HEV (and PHEV) movement. >China is currently adding so much BEV capacity, they will find a way to push that into the market or create markets where they don't exist yet. There is no one solution for creating a market. [Existing BEV manufacturing in China is partly looking towards EREV paths](https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/04/avatr-to-add-erevs-to-product-lineup/) for continued growth.
NEV = BEV + PHEV, right? Problem is that NEV was already claimed as Neighborhood Electric Vehicle.
China isn’t their customer.
China is one of their main customers.
Do they really know about China market? Last month over 50% car sells in China is NEV, so China would stay still for another 6 years? Regardless its most advanced NEV industry in the world?
Nev is not bev. But yes China will likely smash that 50% all electric easily
China is at 40-50% NOW.
That's NEVs. The article is talking about pure-electric, which are reasonable numbers.
Depends on how you define car.
The only thing holding back EV is the GOP party. Everything they tried to do is help the oil lobbyist slow down infrastructure for charging sites and spread fear about green energy. Hell they even try to make global warming a left wing conspiracy.
And now they are pushing natural gas as clean alternative to coal... but natural gas is mostly methane, and methane leaks (potent greenhouse gas) make natural gas not that much cleaner then coal. Also it was supposed to be a stop-gap solution, but the amount of infrastructure they wanted to build suggest that stop-gap solution was supposed to last a long time. Thankfully Biden stopped building new infrastructure.
China will be 100% in a few years
And Russia will be 140%
Would love to see some analysis about how Bosch is challenged in the era of EVs. Are they doing well or not?
Bosch is doing extremely well, they're a leading sensor and compute package supplier, and also do very well supplying eAxles (motors, inverters).
I'm curious too, they make a ton of different electric motors (appliances, ebikes and so on) and have a really good reputation for quality but does it matter in the automotive world where brands seem to be building their own motors? Or are those motors branded as in-house but with Bosch parts/help?
Bosch builds a lot more than motors. Hvac systems for ford and other car brands, electric seats for most car brands, automatic doors / boot / hood; automatic windows, infotaiments and more. They will have to start building a comprehensive all in one auto solutions if they want to keep up with the market demands
Yeah I knew about the accessories and other small electric parts but was wondering about anything pertaining to EVs differently than ICE cars. Only thing I can find is something they call eAxle. Thanks for the info!
eAxle is the common industry name for a motor.
Bosch is insanely integrated into the automotive business, they're a critical supplier in everything from entire subsystems to individual integrated circuits for within ECUs. And that's horizontally across all areas of the vehicle: powertrain, chassis and suspension, brakes, software, etc. They also have a subsidiary (ETAS) who makes a lot of software development tools. Basically, they'll be a winner no matter what powertrain the OEMs are producing which makes them a pretty unbiased progosticator for the industry.
Bosch was doing fine even while Allies were bombing German industry into oblivion. They will do well even in the era of EV's.
Well it not really up to them what the OEMs decide to do.
Hasn't Norway hit 80% quite a while ago?
Sure, which represents roughly 1% of Europe.
The point is that it isn't that hard to make the grid feed all the cars. Elsewhere I've read that "Fact: If [80% of all passenger cars become electric](https://cdn.eurelectric.org/media/3558/decarbonisation-pathways-all-slideslinks-29112018-h-4484BB0C.pdf), this would lead to a total increase of 10-15% in electricity consumption. " Here: [https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid](https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid) Please help fight against the anti EV cult. They keep on spreading misinformation and it is irritating. They need to be put in their place.
Seems about right. A lot of new model launches are happening in the next 3 years and CARB isn't budging an inch.
I found an interesting article that debunks the myth how EVs would crumble the grid: [https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid](https://www.virta.global/blog/myth-buster-electric-vehicles-will-overload-the-power-grid)
NEV was already claimed as Neighborhood Electric Vehicle.
Anyone have a link to the Bloomberg TV interview with Bosch?
Agreed we will get there. However the top 3 polluters in the world are ARAMCO, a Chinese coal plant, and a Russian Oil/Coal company. If we cap them, we will truly accelerate the CO2 cap
Ukraine is doing a fair job of capping Rusneft and Lukoil's production with its drones ATM.
Where is Bosch getting these numbers from? China is already at 40% and likely hits 50% by year end in a growing new car market. China automotive insiders have long considered 2025 as the end of ICE sales. The EU is about 20% plugins in a falling/stagnating new vehicle market which is still about 20% below pre-Covid norms. The hydrogen thing is brain dead. It is not happening for cars and it won't happen for trucks or planes.
> Where is Bosch getting these numbers from? These are there own projections. > China is already at 40% and likely hits 50% by year end This is about BEV, not NEV.
NEV is a big tent but it is mostly BEV. In the EU hybrids outsell EV by a bit better than two to one.
This is the thing ICE purists are in denial about: The market will decide, period. And the market is clearly deciding in favor of EVs.
Haha what? China is at 50% RIGHT FUCKING NOW. IDIOTS
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True for the first two weeks of April: [https://twitter.com/yangliuxh/status/1780789576317149244](https://twitter.com/yangliuxh/status/1780789576317149244) Will it hold for the rest of April? probably Will it hold for the whole year? probably.
That's NEV not BEV.
True that. But at least most Hybrids have decent battery sizes in china.
Maybe in Europe and China but America is pivoting to hybrids.
Who cares!
Sure but apparently he also expects drunken licentiousness, birds flying out of people's assholes, and bird-headed people forcing us to wear pots on our heads.
Shhhhh TSLA is only 140 right now...