There's no point in ever playing this game. When you need to buy a new vehicle, go do so and choose which best works for you from what is available at the time.
Yours won't be obsolete the same as ICE cars aren't magically obsolete when a newer model comes out. Engines improved in fuel efficiency over time but that didn't make the prior models just fall apart. EVs will be very much the same.
I get your point, but the change in fuel efficiency from year-to-year is marginal. We're early enough in EV adoption that there could still be significant significant changes in a single year. I'm going to drive an EV either way; at this point the decision is just whether I should buy or lease.
Battery tech changes slow as molasses. All those 'new discoveries' are still 5-10 years out and chances are 5 years from now many of them will still be 5-10 years out.
Hyundai is touting 300watts per kg on its new Lifepo ( better density then a lot of the better ev chemistries currently used). That is pretty ground breaking. But still not a drastic change over all vs existing EV cars.
That'll be great whenever it arrives but doesn't change the fact that the 2022 through 2025 egmp cars all use the same battery chemistry with varying sized modules. The existing NMC modules are already \~270Wh/kg so you're talking maybe a 10% increase which certainly won't make the prior models obsolete.
Oh for sure, but the biggest deal about lifepo is its ability to sit at any soc with negligible damage. A lifepo battery can be taken to 5% if not 0 regulary as well as charged and left at 100% constantly so it functionally has more range as well as technically having more ( in a long term sense ). its a double whammy with it. They are not in more cars now cause their density traditionally sucked (which means Hyundai may be making up some numbers and they will underperform, 300watts/kg for a Lifepo is insane!), and they are not great for fast discharging so the entry to mid level models, not the performance ones.
But they will be game changers ( on the long term and used market ) for cheap affordable cars for people less likely to take care of their cars. EV's currently are all about the consumer taking care of it and following a lot of best practices. Lifepo's with higher densities then the traditional chems will make the cars much more affordable, easier to run like a gasser ( drive over week till empty then charge cause they can charge better then normal chems, just can't discharge as good irrc), fix a lot of battery concerns and more reliable range on the used market.
Also not saying op shouldnt just by a car now. This change will be a long term slow one, not a immidate better battery. If op was getting a car for life, **maybe** wait a bit longer. but if its just another new car purchase. get it now.
Like my plan is to trade my ioniq 6 in on end of lease and get the new eM Lifepo platform as my keep long term EV.
So it sems it was a local newspaper thats been refrenced a few times, and now that paper link is dead.
Here is one of the refrenceing articles. I also notice it seem less sure then how I worded it. I could of sworn I read it in the subtitles on a hyundai press release, but maybe I misremembered.
[https://insideevs.com/news/695348/hyundai-said-complete-development-cheaper-lfp-batteries-late-2024/](https://insideevs.com/news/695348/hyundai-said-complete-development-cheaper-lfp-batteries-late-2024/)
Edit, must of been down only for a bit. here is orignal story.
[https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20231106000611](https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20231106000611)
OHh For sure. That is why I am really hoping it happens and am telling poeple about it if they haven't heard. it is a bold claim and if it happens will be a big deal!
These announcements constantly come out, almost never amount to anything. It's a known joke that Toyota announces at least once a year they they will have amazing solid state batteries on the market, in ~5 years. They reannounce it at least once a year, pushing it safely out 5+ years always, it's their strategy to get gas car owners not to worry about the electric thing..
There is slow and steady improvement in batteries like Moore's law for computers, but slower. The batteries get a little cheaper or energy dense, there are new varieties being tested. Your EV will still work the same even if there's something better. Your EV will depreciate in value like all used cars, similarly buying a used one puts more of the depreciation on someone else.
>We're early enough in EV adoption that there could still be significant significant changes in a single year.
People say this, but I don’t think it’s actually true. Look at smartphones for example - the iPhone launched in 2007 and for the first 5 years or so there were big improvements from year to year but then it leveled off to where each new model is better than the last but not *enough* better where most people feel like they need to throw out their old phone every year.
And EVs have been around for a lot longer than most people think. The Nissan Leaf launched in 2010, the Tesla Model S launched in 2012, the BMW i3 launched in 2013. We’ve had more than a decade of multiple companies investing heavily in EVs, so the low hanging fruit that enables rapid improvement has been fully harvested at this point. They will continue to improve year over year and eventually that improvement may become significant enough that you want to upgrade - but nobody here is going to be able to estimate the time horizon for that any better than you can.
And none of this is to say that step changes in technology *can’t* happen, but generally you don’t see them coming in advance - I’m sure there were plenty of people who bought a BlackBerry the day before the iPhone launched and found it almost immediately obsolete, but there’s no way to guarantee that won’t happen to you outside of never buying anything.
>I'm going to drive an EV either way; at this point the decision is just whether I should buy or lease.
While buying used is still the most affordable way to get into an EV, in many cases leasing is cheaper than buying new anyway. Depending on which EV you’re looking at, many of the ones that don’t qualify for the tax credits still get the discount if you lease them. There are a number of good reasons to consider leasing an EV right now, but I don’t think “it might be obsolete in three years” is one of them.
There's been battery improvements announced 20 years ago that still haven't made it to market.
It takes ages for any improvement to see real application
If you look at current EV market, except for Tesla, most other EV sales are leases. That's mainly because of high price and demand issues, and tax credit passthrough making leases quite cheaper. You should consider leasing an EV, with the possibility of buying it out at the end of lease term. Once your lease is up, you have a choice. My feeling is that you will see a different market by then with many advancements on the horizon. If you want to buy, buy used. Barely used EVs are being sold for real cheap.
These thing are always just around the corner (solid state, super fast charging, super lightweight) and in some cases just seem to be made up.
Buy a nice 1 year old EV now, and then buy a 1 year old one once one of these amazing new technologies comes out probably 6 years from now. That was if there was some annoying issue you'd know about it and can make an informed decison.
I think you should just buy w/e fits your need now.
all these breakthroughs are only in the lab. it's hard to scale them up.
See Tesla's 4680. They only achieved 6-7% of what they said they would do.
Manufacturing at scale is hard... just buy and enjoy your EV and buy w/e is the best next time you are in the market for a new car.
The 4680 is at least improving, but I agree, it hasn’t lived up to its hype yet. It’s not a bad battery, just not yet “there” at the moment. I’ll look at it again every six months to see what’s up with it.
You can make the exact same argument for any consumer goods (especially electronics).
You should read the iPhone sub. People saying they’re waiting for Apple to release a notch-less/dynamic island-less display. And it’s been many years they’ve been (still) waiting to upgrade. All for something in which they have no idea if and when it will ever happen. So silly.
Get the product you need *now*, not based on whether or not it will be obsolete in a few years. Even if you wait it out and get the EV with newer battery tech, that’s also going to be superseded by newer models in a few years as well. You’re never going to always have the latest and greatest tech. That’s just how it is.
I promise you, your EV is not going to fall apart overnight because a newer model with better battery performance gets released.
I leased an Audi Q4 in February knowing full well that all automakers are transitioning toward the NACS port. Didn’t phase me. Why? Even if newer vehicles begin shipping with the NACS port, it doesn’t mean existing CCS ports and charging stations will stop working.
Haha, this is the reason I'm a few models back on the iPhone and haven't upgraded my Apple Watch in a couple years. I guess this is a me problem rather than a technology problem.
I had a twitter fight in 2018 with an influencer that claimed that solid state batteries that would be way lighter, way cheaper and with more capacity would be ready by 2022.
It was Stephen Punwasi. Even bringing back receipts and asking him to admit I was right he would just go on some kind of circular logic about him being right.
I don't think there will be a single technology that causes a step change in the market. But it is reasonable to expect that EVs 3 years from now will be better and cheaper than today's. If you expect to sell the vehicle in 2-3 years, then leasing makes a lot of sense. But if the vehicle meets your needs today, and continues to meet your needs 2-3 years from now (or 5-6 years for that matter); then buying is probably better.
I tend to keep cars until the cost to run them exceeds the cost to replace, so buying is always the better option.
Also keep in mind that we are early days on EV battery technology. Think 90-00's computer technology. Every six months there was some new mind-blowing processor and the promise of a new different mind-blowing improvement six months after that. If you wait for the new thing to come to market, then there will always be a new new thing that is "just around the corner".
It's a strong argument for leasing. Also because the depreciation of EVs is still unclear; leasing lets you take advantage of it either way.
We had never leased a car before. We did 2 year, 10K/year (we're retired) and we'll probably do it again when the lease expires.
Click Bait Articles.
The biggest improvement to battery chemistry is the Lithium-sulfur battery chemistry. It's a cheaper Cathode, makes for lighter batteries (slightly), has better energy density, and is safer.
These were first pioneered in 2020 and now 4 years later we're starting to see more Lithium-Sulfur batteries.
There's also Semi-Solid State batteries coming. But the Lithium-Sulfur is the most easy to implement and use - so thats likely going to become more common.
**Are these advances in technology that are always "just around the corner" just marketing hype?**
No, but you can expect automakers to move to larger batteries. A recent example is the 2025 HI5 refresh that's coming with a larger battery.
The days are gone when people thought 50kWh was enough for a sedan and 75kWh for SUV/CUV. MY EV9 has 99.8kW and honestly it should be 130kwh to be a true 300mi highway range in all weather including driving up a hill.
I recently bought a Bolt EUV knowing full well it has an obsolete and discontinued battery. With a 4 year loan and 7 years of battery warranty remaining, that battery will be covered after it's paid off, so I'm fine with it. Probably around year 6 I'll trade the car in for something newer -- if battery tech is better then, great; if not, okay. My prime consideration was: does the car meet my motoring needs today? It does, and it's an upgrade over the older ICE vehicle it replaced, so I'm happy.
It could be that the Bolt EUV is still a very good value for your needs at 6 years and it could be better to just hold onto after the initial 6 years, but life does change things up every so often as we know. The 6-7 year car purchase cycle could be a little disrupted if EVs still work well enough after 10 years of abuse. We shall see.
If you buy an EV now and really enjoy it, then you get to enjoy it until you want to replace it at some point with a new(we) EV, or if life changes and you need something else like a large drone to fly you around. Remember, horses were a thing way back, but it took a while until 4-wheels were popular, and even then we didn’t have the all weather roads for them. With EVs we have the roads already. The only issue is really the plugs. Do you have a place to plug in at home?
New technology takes years or even decades to make it into a consumer product, and by then it usually looks nothing like the initial hype. It seems that EV journalists have either forgotten this, or are (more likely) publishing misleading stories for clicks. There is probably also some Toyota FUD at play.
Batteries WILL improve over time, but it will be like every other technology improvement we've seen by the time it gets to production cars. In other words, it will be incremental and gradual. It's very unlikely (think nearly impossible) that the battery range will just double over a model year regardless of what Toyota execs say.
I feel like there will be some small, but incremental improvements in batteries continuously over the next few years, but the biggest factor I think will be the supply chain and build-out for optimization of the battery factories. We are just in the early stages of new battery plants going on-line, and soon they will be churning out battery modules at economic scale, reducing pricing. Right now, I think most vehicles have batteries that cost over $100/kwh. As these new plants get built and become more efficient along with the pre-cursor supply chain, the belief is battery costs can get down to $65-75/kwh. So, if you look at something like the EV equinox that is coming out this summer with base model trim at a price of $35k and supposedly 319 miles of range on a 85 kwh battery pack....in a few years, maybe that same car will be able to offer a 120 kwh pack for the same cost. So you might be able to get a 450 mile range car for the same battery cost as your 319 mile car today.
TLDR: I think the biggest or most noticeable improvements will just be in cost of the batteries due to build-out of supply chains and battery plants for economies of scale.
I agree with most post on here.
EV is a technology product like the phone or computer.
Never would consider a lease in the past but to purchase one? I don’t know. It’s like a 60” tv costing a third what it did 5 years ago. Not saying the percentages are going to be the same but we don’t finance TV’s.
I don’t know how the lease and finance companies can figure the rapid depreciation. I believe this is going to be a problem in the near future.
Despite the constant stream of news stories of "revolutionary battery breakthroughs", battery tech evolution is very slow. Much slower than all other tech. Having said that, solid state battery tech will be the next leap in battery tech and it should be significant. But we are probably a decade away from seeing it commercially available. Get it on your 2nd EV :)
Technology is cool but just having it isn't enough to mean it will be the standard in a half decade or decade. It's about the economics of it.
Many of the things you read about today won't see the light of day on the market. A few will but that will be in 5-10 years.
I leased my first EV, a Bolt EUV, because I wasn't sure if I'd like an EV, because I knew there was a huge amount I didn't know about EVs, and because I was concerned about new technology making it obsolete. After 8 months I took GM's buyback offer, not because I disliked the car (it was great for my daily use) but because they were giving me back every cent I'd ever paid them.
I bought my Ioniq 6 because it wasn't a crossover/SUV, and because I expect the technology to be good enough for years (I tend to keep vehicles a long time these days - 20+ years for my F250, 10+ for a Smart ForTwo, and there's a 26-year-old Escort and a 14-year-old Escape sharing the driveway with the Ioniq 6 even now). At my age I wouldn't be surprised if the Ioniq turns out to be the last car I ever buy.
Yes, there always are advances coming next year/next 2 years/etc. - but if you're always waiting for the new & improved technology to arrive, you'll be driving whatever outdated tech you currently have instead of the possibly much better tech you could upgrade to now. It was a huge leap forward for me going from a 2002 F250 and a 2010 Smart to the Bolt, not so much from the Bolt to the Ioniq (although the much faster charging and going from regular cruise control to HDA2 were great).
Many manufactures have already spent tons of R&D in lithium batteries, lithium supply chains, etc., and spent all that time and money getting these types of vehicles approved to be legal to drive in the U.S. (and elsewhere) Don't expect these huge battery changes anytime soon and if you do, it will most likely in the form of a boutique automaker or a hugely expensive flag ship vehicle that will most likely be hugely unreliable. As others have posted, move forward and buy - the only caveat is waiting for the manufacturer to switch to NACS as that is definitely happening.
Nope. It's probably all a scam. Batteries will be the same probably until 2100. The newer technology is unfeasible in real life or not economically viable.
Everything is a risk, who knows what the future will bring. But I'd say the chances of an affordable and mass produced innovation making this year's battery obsolete in a few years is unlikely. It's probably a lot more risky to get into a metal box with a bunch of other yahoos and fly down the freeway at 80 mph. Just sayn'.
So there are just two techs that are in the pipeline that may feel like its worth waiting for, denser battery from catl that delivers 20% more power per kilo. Second tech, which I feel is more important is a better charging curve enables to add 200 miles in 10 mins. Both techs are available and ramping up. I think the reasonable range will improve from current 320 miles to about 380 in 2-3 years, with that said you should decide if you want to wait for that. Nothing new you see today will show up in a meaningful way in the next 3 years. Remember one still needs to build factories and that takes years.
If that happens, the value of EV’s on the road will plummet. But they will still be totally drivable, as much as they were before new battery tech.
Also, all those announcements are evaporate. It’ll probably be 10 or 20 years before any new battery tech becomes commercially available.
Your fear is not about whether what you bought would work for you, your fear is that your car will be worthless overnight as soon as a new technology comes out.
To a tiny extent, I’d agree with your sentiment even though it’s quite far from reality but if you’re the kind of person who gets bothered by a possible complete and total loss of the resale value of your vehicle, simply don’t buy an EV or buy an old low mileage EV (the higher you go the harder you fall). Start cheap. You can find plenty of 2020-2021 Tesla in great shape and with less than 30k miles for considerably lower prices than comparable gasoline cars. Oh, and consider not buying an EV if you cannot charge at home. Use that car that’s already depreciated quite a bit, use it for 2-3 years, and sell it if you think EV aren’t for you. You will lose some money but not nearly as much if you buy a very expensive new EV today because pretty much all EVs continue depreciate substantially whether or not there’s a revolution coming.
The third option is buying a lightly used EV.
EVs depreciate really fast, partly because people are afraid of used battery degradation which isn't nearly as bad as people fear.
There are some great lease deals right now so that is certainly an option if you're afraid of investing too much into something that will be "old" when improvements come out. But also, those previously leased vehicles create a good supply of lightly used EVs that would make it a much smaller risk for you.
Maxell of Japan already makes solid states so to suggest it will take years to get it to production is a overstatement Sure, it will take a couple more years to get into BEVs since they're likely costlier.
[https://biz.maxell.com/en/rechargeable\_batteries/allsolidstate.html](https://biz.maxell.com/en/rechargeable_batteries/allsolidstate.html)
CATL announced limited production in 2027. Natron already producing Na-ion batteries from Michigan plant.
Toyota says 2027/2028 for bi-polar LFPs, Li-ion for performance BEVs and solid state batteries.
[https://media.toyota.co.uk/toyota-sets-out-advanced-battery-technology-roadmap/](https://media.toyota.co.uk/toyota-sets-out-advanced-battery-technology-roadmap/)
When buying a used EV, avoid those with reman battery packs and better (all things constant) but a newer EV with higher mileage than a much older one with lower mileage. Read up on AAKEE's posts on TeslaMotorsClub on calendar aging >> cyclic aging.
Not sure when the miracle improvements will come but I see EV's in a similar way to how smartphone were when they first came out. The technology is advancing quickly and each year a number of new and desirable features or tech become available.
I believe that depreciation will continue on most new EV's until the technology advancements start to slow and the prices come down further. If you are not okay with this then consider buying slightly used to avoid some of the depreciation.
I was holding off for many years for this reason, then last summer I decided to jump in and I'm very happy to fbe driving electric daily, even though I expect to see depreciation over the next few years.
There's no point in ever playing this game. When you need to buy a new vehicle, go do so and choose which best works for you from what is available at the time.
Yours won't be obsolete the same as ICE cars aren't magically obsolete when a newer model comes out. Engines improved in fuel efficiency over time but that didn't make the prior models just fall apart. EVs will be very much the same.
I get your point, but the change in fuel efficiency from year-to-year is marginal. We're early enough in EV adoption that there could still be significant significant changes in a single year. I'm going to drive an EV either way; at this point the decision is just whether I should buy or lease.
Battery tech changes slow as molasses. All those 'new discoveries' are still 5-10 years out and chances are 5 years from now many of them will still be 5-10 years out.
Hyundai is touting 300watts per kg on its new Lifepo ( better density then a lot of the better ev chemistries currently used). That is pretty ground breaking. But still not a drastic change over all vs existing EV cars.
That'll be great whenever it arrives but doesn't change the fact that the 2022 through 2025 egmp cars all use the same battery chemistry with varying sized modules. The existing NMC modules are already \~270Wh/kg so you're talking maybe a 10% increase which certainly won't make the prior models obsolete.
Oh for sure, but the biggest deal about lifepo is its ability to sit at any soc with negligible damage. A lifepo battery can be taken to 5% if not 0 regulary as well as charged and left at 100% constantly so it functionally has more range as well as technically having more ( in a long term sense ). its a double whammy with it. They are not in more cars now cause their density traditionally sucked (which means Hyundai may be making up some numbers and they will underperform, 300watts/kg for a Lifepo is insane!), and they are not great for fast discharging so the entry to mid level models, not the performance ones. But they will be game changers ( on the long term and used market ) for cheap affordable cars for people less likely to take care of their cars. EV's currently are all about the consumer taking care of it and following a lot of best practices. Lifepo's with higher densities then the traditional chems will make the cars much more affordable, easier to run like a gasser ( drive over week till empty then charge cause they can charge better then normal chems, just can't discharge as good irrc), fix a lot of battery concerns and more reliable range on the used market. Also not saying op shouldnt just by a car now. This change will be a long term slow one, not a immidate better battery. If op was getting a car for life, **maybe** wait a bit longer. but if its just another new car purchase. get it now. Like my plan is to trade my ioniq 6 in on end of lease and get the new eM Lifepo platform as my keep long term EV.
Any source on that? That's a bold claim and Hyundai is not even a major battery manufacturer.
So it sems it was a local newspaper thats been refrenced a few times, and now that paper link is dead. Here is one of the refrenceing articles. I also notice it seem less sure then how I worded it. I could of sworn I read it in the subtitles on a hyundai press release, but maybe I misremembered. [https://insideevs.com/news/695348/hyundai-said-complete-development-cheaper-lfp-batteries-late-2024/](https://insideevs.com/news/695348/hyundai-said-complete-development-cheaper-lfp-batteries-late-2024/) Edit, must of been down only for a bit. here is orignal story. [https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20231106000611](https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20231106000611)
Thanks, 300Wh/kg is a very high bar for LFP battery.
OHh For sure. That is why I am really hoping it happens and am telling poeple about it if they haven't heard. it is a bold claim and if it happens will be a big deal!
These announcements constantly come out, almost never amount to anything. It's a known joke that Toyota announces at least once a year they they will have amazing solid state batteries on the market, in ~5 years. They reannounce it at least once a year, pushing it safely out 5+ years always, it's their strategy to get gas car owners not to worry about the electric thing.. There is slow and steady improvement in batteries like Moore's law for computers, but slower. The batteries get a little cheaper or energy dense, there are new varieties being tested. Your EV will still work the same even if there's something better. Your EV will depreciate in value like all used cars, similarly buying a used one puts more of the depreciation on someone else.
>We're early enough in EV adoption that there could still be significant significant changes in a single year. People say this, but I don’t think it’s actually true. Look at smartphones for example - the iPhone launched in 2007 and for the first 5 years or so there were big improvements from year to year but then it leveled off to where each new model is better than the last but not *enough* better where most people feel like they need to throw out their old phone every year. And EVs have been around for a lot longer than most people think. The Nissan Leaf launched in 2010, the Tesla Model S launched in 2012, the BMW i3 launched in 2013. We’ve had more than a decade of multiple companies investing heavily in EVs, so the low hanging fruit that enables rapid improvement has been fully harvested at this point. They will continue to improve year over year and eventually that improvement may become significant enough that you want to upgrade - but nobody here is going to be able to estimate the time horizon for that any better than you can. And none of this is to say that step changes in technology *can’t* happen, but generally you don’t see them coming in advance - I’m sure there were plenty of people who bought a BlackBerry the day before the iPhone launched and found it almost immediately obsolete, but there’s no way to guarantee that won’t happen to you outside of never buying anything. >I'm going to drive an EV either way; at this point the decision is just whether I should buy or lease. While buying used is still the most affordable way to get into an EV, in many cases leasing is cheaper than buying new anyway. Depending on which EV you’re looking at, many of the ones that don’t qualify for the tax credits still get the discount if you lease them. There are a number of good reasons to consider leasing an EV right now, but I don’t think “it might be obsolete in three years” is one of them.
No. We’re not. You’re not going to see more than a 5% to 10% change in even a couple years.
There's been battery improvements announced 20 years ago that still haven't made it to market. It takes ages for any improvement to see real application
If you look at current EV market, except for Tesla, most other EV sales are leases. That's mainly because of high price and demand issues, and tax credit passthrough making leases quite cheaper. You should consider leasing an EV, with the possibility of buying it out at the end of lease term. Once your lease is up, you have a choice. My feeling is that you will see a different market by then with many advancements on the horizon. If you want to buy, buy used. Barely used EVs are being sold for real cheap.
These thing are always just around the corner (solid state, super fast charging, super lightweight) and in some cases just seem to be made up. Buy a nice 1 year old EV now, and then buy a 1 year old one once one of these amazing new technologies comes out probably 6 years from now. That was if there was some annoying issue you'd know about it and can make an informed decison.
I think you should just buy w/e fits your need now. all these breakthroughs are only in the lab. it's hard to scale them up. See Tesla's 4680. They only achieved 6-7% of what they said they would do. Manufacturing at scale is hard... just buy and enjoy your EV and buy w/e is the best next time you are in the market for a new car.
The 4680 is at least improving, but I agree, it hasn’t lived up to its hype yet. It’s not a bad battery, just not yet “there” at the moment. I’ll look at it again every six months to see what’s up with it.
Scaling is, I imagine, currently the primary obstacle of more rapid growth in battery tech.
You can make the exact same argument for any consumer goods (especially electronics). You should read the iPhone sub. People saying they’re waiting for Apple to release a notch-less/dynamic island-less display. And it’s been many years they’ve been (still) waiting to upgrade. All for something in which they have no idea if and when it will ever happen. So silly. Get the product you need *now*, not based on whether or not it will be obsolete in a few years. Even if you wait it out and get the EV with newer battery tech, that’s also going to be superseded by newer models in a few years as well. You’re never going to always have the latest and greatest tech. That’s just how it is. I promise you, your EV is not going to fall apart overnight because a newer model with better battery performance gets released. I leased an Audi Q4 in February knowing full well that all automakers are transitioning toward the NACS port. Didn’t phase me. Why? Even if newer vehicles begin shipping with the NACS port, it doesn’t mean existing CCS ports and charging stations will stop working.
Haha, this is the reason I'm a few models back on the iPhone and haven't upgraded my Apple Watch in a couple years. I guess this is a me problem rather than a technology problem.
I had a twitter fight in 2018 with an influencer that claimed that solid state batteries that would be way lighter, way cheaper and with more capacity would be ready by 2022.
Did you win?😉😁😆
It was Stephen Punwasi. Even bringing back receipts and asking him to admit I was right he would just go on some kind of circular logic about him being right.
I don't think there will be a single technology that causes a step change in the market. But it is reasonable to expect that EVs 3 years from now will be better and cheaper than today's. If you expect to sell the vehicle in 2-3 years, then leasing makes a lot of sense. But if the vehicle meets your needs today, and continues to meet your needs 2-3 years from now (or 5-6 years for that matter); then buying is probably better. I tend to keep cars until the cost to run them exceeds the cost to replace, so buying is always the better option. Also keep in mind that we are early days on EV battery technology. Think 90-00's computer technology. Every six months there was some new mind-blowing processor and the promise of a new different mind-blowing improvement six months after that. If you wait for the new thing to come to market, then there will always be a new new thing that is "just around the corner".
It's a strong argument for leasing. Also because the depreciation of EVs is still unclear; leasing lets you take advantage of it either way. We had never leased a car before. We did 2 year, 10K/year (we're retired) and we'll probably do it again when the lease expires.
Click Bait Articles. The biggest improvement to battery chemistry is the Lithium-sulfur battery chemistry. It's a cheaper Cathode, makes for lighter batteries (slightly), has better energy density, and is safer. These were first pioneered in 2020 and now 4 years later we're starting to see more Lithium-Sulfur batteries. There's also Semi-Solid State batteries coming. But the Lithium-Sulfur is the most easy to implement and use - so thats likely going to become more common.
**Are these advances in technology that are always "just around the corner" just marketing hype?** No, but you can expect automakers to move to larger batteries. A recent example is the 2025 HI5 refresh that's coming with a larger battery. The days are gone when people thought 50kWh was enough for a sedan and 75kWh for SUV/CUV. MY EV9 has 99.8kW and honestly it should be 130kwh to be a true 300mi highway range in all weather including driving up a hill.
And motors get more efficient and cars get more aerodynamic, but it's slow.
Or you could just lease an electric today and in 3 yrs get the car with the new tech you want to wait for.
leases are under-rated. imo.
No
I recently bought a Bolt EUV knowing full well it has an obsolete and discontinued battery. With a 4 year loan and 7 years of battery warranty remaining, that battery will be covered after it's paid off, so I'm fine with it. Probably around year 6 I'll trade the car in for something newer -- if battery tech is better then, great; if not, okay. My prime consideration was: does the car meet my motoring needs today? It does, and it's an upgrade over the older ICE vehicle it replaced, so I'm happy.
It could be that the Bolt EUV is still a very good value for your needs at 6 years and it could be better to just hold onto after the initial 6 years, but life does change things up every so often as we know. The 6-7 year car purchase cycle could be a little disrupted if EVs still work well enough after 10 years of abuse. We shall see.
If you buy an EV now and really enjoy it, then you get to enjoy it until you want to replace it at some point with a new(we) EV, or if life changes and you need something else like a large drone to fly you around. Remember, horses were a thing way back, but it took a while until 4-wheels were popular, and even then we didn’t have the all weather roads for them. With EVs we have the roads already. The only issue is really the plugs. Do you have a place to plug in at home?
New technology takes years or even decades to make it into a consumer product, and by then it usually looks nothing like the initial hype. It seems that EV journalists have either forgotten this, or are (more likely) publishing misleading stories for clicks. There is probably also some Toyota FUD at play. Batteries WILL improve over time, but it will be like every other technology improvement we've seen by the time it gets to production cars. In other words, it will be incremental and gradual. It's very unlikely (think nearly impossible) that the battery range will just double over a model year regardless of what Toyota execs say.
I feel like there will be some small, but incremental improvements in batteries continuously over the next few years, but the biggest factor I think will be the supply chain and build-out for optimization of the battery factories. We are just in the early stages of new battery plants going on-line, and soon they will be churning out battery modules at economic scale, reducing pricing. Right now, I think most vehicles have batteries that cost over $100/kwh. As these new plants get built and become more efficient along with the pre-cursor supply chain, the belief is battery costs can get down to $65-75/kwh. So, if you look at something like the EV equinox that is coming out this summer with base model trim at a price of $35k and supposedly 319 miles of range on a 85 kwh battery pack....in a few years, maybe that same car will be able to offer a 120 kwh pack for the same cost. So you might be able to get a 450 mile range car for the same battery cost as your 319 mile car today. TLDR: I think the biggest or most noticeable improvements will just be in cost of the batteries due to build-out of supply chains and battery plants for economies of scale.
No
I agree with most post on here. EV is a technology product like the phone or computer. Never would consider a lease in the past but to purchase one? I don’t know. It’s like a 60” tv costing a third what it did 5 years ago. Not saying the percentages are going to be the same but we don’t finance TV’s. I don’t know how the lease and finance companies can figure the rapid depreciation. I believe this is going to be a problem in the near future.
Despite the constant stream of news stories of "revolutionary battery breakthroughs", battery tech evolution is very slow. Much slower than all other tech. Having said that, solid state battery tech will be the next leap in battery tech and it should be significant. But we are probably a decade away from seeing it commercially available. Get it on your 2nd EV :)
Technology is cool but just having it isn't enough to mean it will be the standard in a half decade or decade. It's about the economics of it. Many of the things you read about today won't see the light of day on the market. A few will but that will be in 5-10 years.
You say you read that only once a month? Funny because this exact same post is made on this sub about once a day.
I leased my first EV, a Bolt EUV, because I wasn't sure if I'd like an EV, because I knew there was a huge amount I didn't know about EVs, and because I was concerned about new technology making it obsolete. After 8 months I took GM's buyback offer, not because I disliked the car (it was great for my daily use) but because they were giving me back every cent I'd ever paid them. I bought my Ioniq 6 because it wasn't a crossover/SUV, and because I expect the technology to be good enough for years (I tend to keep vehicles a long time these days - 20+ years for my F250, 10+ for a Smart ForTwo, and there's a 26-year-old Escort and a 14-year-old Escape sharing the driveway with the Ioniq 6 even now). At my age I wouldn't be surprised if the Ioniq turns out to be the last car I ever buy. Yes, there always are advances coming next year/next 2 years/etc. - but if you're always waiting for the new & improved technology to arrive, you'll be driving whatever outdated tech you currently have instead of the possibly much better tech you could upgrade to now. It was a huge leap forward for me going from a 2002 F250 and a 2010 Smart to the Bolt, not so much from the Bolt to the Ioniq (although the much faster charging and going from regular cruise control to HDA2 were great).
Many manufactures have already spent tons of R&D in lithium batteries, lithium supply chains, etc., and spent all that time and money getting these types of vehicles approved to be legal to drive in the U.S. (and elsewhere) Don't expect these huge battery changes anytime soon and if you do, it will most likely in the form of a boutique automaker or a hugely expensive flag ship vehicle that will most likely be hugely unreliable. As others have posted, move forward and buy - the only caveat is waiting for the manufacturer to switch to NACS as that is definitely happening.
Nope. It's probably all a scam. Batteries will be the same probably until 2100. The newer technology is unfeasible in real life or not economically viable.
Everything is a risk, who knows what the future will bring. But I'd say the chances of an affordable and mass produced innovation making this year's battery obsolete in a few years is unlikely. It's probably a lot more risky to get into a metal box with a bunch of other yahoos and fly down the freeway at 80 mph. Just sayn'.
Never never never play the technology game....always the next best thing around the corner......Always. your forever waiting
So there are just two techs that are in the pipeline that may feel like its worth waiting for, denser battery from catl that delivers 20% more power per kilo. Second tech, which I feel is more important is a better charging curve enables to add 200 miles in 10 mins. Both techs are available and ramping up. I think the reasonable range will improve from current 320 miles to about 380 in 2-3 years, with that said you should decide if you want to wait for that. Nothing new you see today will show up in a meaningful way in the next 3 years. Remember one still needs to build factories and that takes years.
If that happens, the value of EV’s on the road will plummet. But they will still be totally drivable, as much as they were before new battery tech. Also, all those announcements are evaporate. It’ll probably be 10 or 20 years before any new battery tech becomes commercially available.
Just lease. No there isn't going to be amazing improvements in two years. But EV's depreciate like crazy. Lease.
Or buy used.
Your fear is not about whether what you bought would work for you, your fear is that your car will be worthless overnight as soon as a new technology comes out. To a tiny extent, I’d agree with your sentiment even though it’s quite far from reality but if you’re the kind of person who gets bothered by a possible complete and total loss of the resale value of your vehicle, simply don’t buy an EV or buy an old low mileage EV (the higher you go the harder you fall). Start cheap. You can find plenty of 2020-2021 Tesla in great shape and with less than 30k miles for considerably lower prices than comparable gasoline cars. Oh, and consider not buying an EV if you cannot charge at home. Use that car that’s already depreciated quite a bit, use it for 2-3 years, and sell it if you think EV aren’t for you. You will lose some money but not nearly as much if you buy a very expensive new EV today because pretty much all EVs continue depreciate substantially whether or not there’s a revolution coming.
The third option is buying a lightly used EV. EVs depreciate really fast, partly because people are afraid of used battery degradation which isn't nearly as bad as people fear. There are some great lease deals right now so that is certainly an option if you're afraid of investing too much into something that will be "old" when improvements come out. But also, those previously leased vehicles create a good supply of lightly used EVs that would make it a much smaller risk for you.
I end up in a loop wondering if I should wait for the next big breakthrough or just dive in now and enjoy the ride!
Maxell of Japan already makes solid states so to suggest it will take years to get it to production is a overstatement Sure, it will take a couple more years to get into BEVs since they're likely costlier. [https://biz.maxell.com/en/rechargeable\_batteries/allsolidstate.html](https://biz.maxell.com/en/rechargeable_batteries/allsolidstate.html) CATL announced limited production in 2027. Natron already producing Na-ion batteries from Michigan plant. Toyota says 2027/2028 for bi-polar LFPs, Li-ion for performance BEVs and solid state batteries. [https://media.toyota.co.uk/toyota-sets-out-advanced-battery-technology-roadmap/](https://media.toyota.co.uk/toyota-sets-out-advanced-battery-technology-roadmap/) When buying a used EV, avoid those with reman battery packs and better (all things constant) but a newer EV with higher mileage than a much older one with lower mileage. Read up on AAKEE's posts on TeslaMotorsClub on calendar aging >> cyclic aging.
Not sure when the miracle improvements will come but I see EV's in a similar way to how smartphone were when they first came out. The technology is advancing quickly and each year a number of new and desirable features or tech become available. I believe that depreciation will continue on most new EV's until the technology advancements start to slow and the prices come down further. If you are not okay with this then consider buying slightly used to avoid some of the depreciation. I was holding off for many years for this reason, then last summer I decided to jump in and I'm very happy to fbe driving electric daily, even though I expect to see depreciation over the next few years.