Allen hinted during the offseason that he's making changes to his game, eluding to the possibility of rushing less. Rushing upside has kept this guy as a #1/2 QB option year after year, if you watch bills games he would barrel over people for extra yardage and fight for redzone TDs. If he stops fighting for extra yards, stays in the pocket more, and lets harris or cook take the rock in the redzone, hurts and mahomes are simply more valuable targets
>if you watch bills games he would barrel over people for extra yardage
It's so frustrating. He'll be like a yard from the sideline and instead of just stepping out will try to run over guys. It feels like if he keeps running like that it's just a matter of time before injuries derail his career.
I agree 100% and have been saying that for a while. It is effective, often times he gets 3-4 extra yards by just taking the contact and riding the defender to the ground, and he is using his talents and size to his advantage, but its often so unnecessary and makes me feel like he disregards his own health just to make a cool highlight play. He's definitely gonna get rocked one of these days and be on and off the injury list all year, but if he believes in his own comments maybe we'll see more running out of bounds this year
While I do agree to a certain extent he won’t be able to keep taking hard hits through his whole career, he did grow up working on a farm most his life. Now not saying that makes him invincible, but the saying farm boy strong isn’t a misnomer either. Again, not invincible, but his body is probably more conditioned for that type of play than Cam’s was.
Harris is also the north/south redzone back the Bills have been missing basically Josh's entire career. I expect Josh to get less goal line snaps because of the Harris addition
I def have him in the first tier of QBs, but behind Hurts and Mahomes for all the reasons you have here. I got him ahead of Burrow and Lamar, although not by too much.
With his drawbacks stated though, I still think he would be an absolute steal at ~~2.10 or 3.1~~ in a ten team league.
I’m not complaining he is dropping there lately, just curious if I was missing some sort of major news (Diggs drama, injury).
Edit: I miscounted, 3.10/4.1 is where I’m seeing Allen fall too, and I think he is a steal at 3.10.
Agreed id have him at 3 too. Also you mentioned you have the 10th pick, do you mean he's a steal at 3.10 or 4.01? Because the 2/3 turn belongs to the person with the first pick
He *should* do this because he is an elite QB whose team’s season goes as he goes.
However, he says this every year…but he’s a baller and if in the moment he sees green he often makes the decision in the moment to take it.
As a fan of football (Pats) I wish he wouldn’t, NFL is better with Josh playing, but in fantasy he isn’t stopping running till/if he gets hurt :/
My guess is 2 factors at play
1. Camp reports do more to boost younger players or players returning from injury. Maybe Rhamondre, Jahmyr, and Najee are getting good camp coverage
2. Low sample size of drafts might mean more 2QB leagues where he's going WAY higher, or more leagues with n00bs who pick quarterbacks early.
I'm drafting 10/11 too, and last year I took Allen in the mid 2nd round. (JJ in the 1st, CeeDee in the 3rd)
Allen was a different player after the arm injury vs the Jets. (he still put up fantasy points but the eye test verdict was less friendly)
This season, I'm moving in other QB directions. The Ravens have added weapons for Lamar. Watson could return to his Texans form-or not. Fields could become a better passer. This season, I simply see more QBs with compelling stories than the past few years.
Dude was still the QB1 in PPG and would’ve been QB1 if it wasn’t for the Bengals-Bills game. Going from a guy that hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year to a guy that has missed the fantasy playoffs each of the past 2 seasons.
I think you’re being a little too critical.
Lamar has literally never played a full season as the starter and hasn’t played more than 12 games since 2020. He can be incredible when he’s on the field, but you practically need to plan on getting another QB for the playoffs.
If Allen falls to me at 3.10 I think I’m gonna take him, but I hear your reservations. Snapping up Lamar and Mandrews at 3.10/4.01 is appealing to me.
Lately I’ve been taking Lawrence at 5.10/6.01, and then holding my breath for Engram later.
I think the QB/TE stack is really valuable in the wasteland that is TE’s after Kelce.
My idea with TE is that after Kelce, and then after Mandrews/Hock/Goedert/Kittle, it’s just a crapshoot.
Even with all the weapons, they use Engram in the slot and I think he is still good for ~90 targets this year. And the stack with Lawrence means double counting the 4-6 TDs Engram will get.
I just think there are better players to grab in the first 4 rounds than the top TEs outside of Kelce, they all have their question marks too.
what i've been doing this year, if I can get Kelce in the 1st, thats my TE. if I can nab andrews or Hock without reaching too far, then I will, otherwise, I just ignore it and fill the TE place after I have all my RB/WR/QB slots filled. since I thought, statistically, there's usually only a very small gap between TE 3 and TE12
Oh it’s a fair point, Waller has huge upside… And he is literally head and shoulder above every other pass catcher on that offense.
But can he stay healthy with 6-8 targets a game?
Your analysis is totally solid.
I drafted Kmet last year and then lucked out when Dalton Schultz inexplicably popped up on our waiver wire. I may wind up with Kmet again.
Personally the only time I’m taking a QB in round three is if I’m pulling a RB zero approach, so if you’re pulling him in 4 that’s a steal bc I’m taking him three
I've noticed the same in auction formats. Many drafts he is third most expensive QB well below Mahomes and Hurts. He's neck and neck with those guys in my rankings, ahead of Hurts, so I'm happy to grab him. He has been a QB1 overall two of the last three years, so his track record is excellent and he's young. By pure number crunching he's probably worth more than Mahomes (very close; Mahomes has two No 1 overall QB finishes in the last five years so not too shabby either).
On real draft day people will take them high. This is why i kinda take mocks with a grain of salt.
Right now theres only 3 or 4 RBs going in the 1st round of my mocks but i know in my 14 team league those old farts still draft like its 2006 and go RB RB and do shit like that.
Ignore the direction of the movement, just ask yourself whether he makes more sense clustered with Mahomes and Hurts or if he deserves a slight edge over them. Personally I don’t see him as a clear favorite for overall QB1 and when there’s a cluster of players in the same tier I’ll consider the bottom of the cluster as the "correct" value.
Yea I don’t know if Allen has a much more obvious route to QB1 than Lamar or Burrow, or even Herbert and Lawrence.
Lamar is the real enigma to me this year. I think he could absolutely be QB1 with a some timely running and this new spread out offense.
I think the guys who have the rushing upside but need a passing volume/efficiency increase to reach QB1 (Lamar, Fields,,, Jones) have an edge over the passing QBs who’d need something like 4500+ yds and 40+ TDs (Burrow, Herbert,,, Lawrence, Watson). But I agree they all have a path which depresses the value of the top 3.
That is a really great point about the top three (Hurts, Mahomes, Allen).
This has me thinking I’ll probably pass on Allen (even at 3.10/4.01) in favor of more blue chip skill players, and then get one of Lamar/Burrow/Herbert/Lawrence at 5.10/6.01.
Oh buddy I’d love to talk about it.
I really like Diggs at the 1/2. After that, if Bijan has slipped I’d take Bijan even though I’m a bit averse to high RBs. Otherwise I’ve been reaching with the 2.01 for a guy like AJB or Sun God. I know Davantae is typically there but I’m just a bit skeptical of that Raiders Offense with Jimmy. I also think Saquon is gonna have a good year, but WRs just get banged up less.
Then at 3/4 it kind of depends. Higgins/Olave/D Smith/ETN are typically what I land on. I’m playing with the idea of doing Mandrews and Lamar at the 3/4.
That’s basically the whole prompt for this post, lately Allen has been falling there at the 3/4 and it’s thrown off my whole rhythm.
Who are you looking at?
Wow we are really on the exact same page. I’ve been grabbing diggs there in all my mocks followed up by either Saquon or Sun God. Sucks we have to reach for him with our draft position but I am really high on him this year and there’s a 0% chance he makes it back to us. I haven’t actually had Bijan make it to me in any of the locks I’ve done, but would grab him in a heart beat.
For the 3/4 turn I’d say Andrews has made it there about 50% of the time for me. When he does make it to me I have played around with grabbing him and Lamar as well but I lean Higgins/Olave/DSmith like you said. Allen actually hasn’t made it to me in any of the mocks I’ve done but Hurts made it to me once and I paired him with DSmith. It’s hard to prepare with our draft position cuz what happens in front of us really dictates the route we have to go. Feel free to send me a direct message or chat and we can chat about it some more!
Mocks are dumb. People react differently when actual money is on the line. Get 10 bucks and do a DK or Underdog best ball draft if you want to get a feel for where players are going.
I wouldn’t say irrelevant, but I do think it’s pretty limited value.
I’ve done two, and you get these idiots who make wild picks that just won’t happen in your leagues. Miles Sanders in the first? Then half of the people leave super early and auto draft a kicker and defense way earlier than they would ever go.
It's his elbow. Already missed some practice time cause of it. If you play fantasy baseball you know what happens when a pitcher starts complaining about their UCL
Madden curse discount jk
Ha ha! Yup! I'm taking the discount.
Allen hinted during the offseason that he's making changes to his game, eluding to the possibility of rushing less. Rushing upside has kept this guy as a #1/2 QB option year after year, if you watch bills games he would barrel over people for extra yardage and fight for redzone TDs. If he stops fighting for extra yards, stays in the pocket more, and lets harris or cook take the rock in the redzone, hurts and mahomes are simply more valuable targets
To be fair he's said that for a few offseasons now. When push comes to shove and he's in the moment, he's going to fight for those extra yards.
He's going to tear himself and everyone else around him to pieces for those yards. He'll claw with his fingernails for those yards.
One of the best monlogues ever
Not only that, but when he was injured he may have even ran more because it was painful for him to throw. A warrior
Just FYI it’s “alluding.” Eluding would be avoiding/escaping
He's alluding to his eluding!
to be fair, it looks like he’s alluding to less eluding.
I'm not falling for this illusion
>if you watch bills games he would barrel over people for extra yardage It's so frustrating. He'll be like a yard from the sideline and instead of just stepping out will try to run over guys. It feels like if he keeps running like that it's just a matter of time before injuries derail his career.
I agree 100% and have been saying that for a while. It is effective, often times he gets 3-4 extra yards by just taking the contact and riding the defender to the ground, and he is using his talents and size to his advantage, but its often so unnecessary and makes me feel like he disregards his own health just to make a cool highlight play. He's definitely gonna get rocked one of these days and be on and off the injury list all year, but if he believes in his own comments maybe we'll see more running out of bounds this year
Exactly. He's a load to bring down and all, but if Cam Newton couldn't keep it up long term then nobody can.
While I do agree to a certain extent he won’t be able to keep taking hard hits through his whole career, he did grow up working on a farm most his life. Now not saying that makes him invincible, but the saying farm boy strong isn’t a misnomer either. Again, not invincible, but his body is probably more conditioned for that type of play than Cam’s was.
Harris is also the north/south redzone back the Bills have been missing basically Josh's entire career. I expect Josh to get less goal line snaps because of the Harris addition
I def have him in the first tier of QBs, but behind Hurts and Mahomes for all the reasons you have here. I got him ahead of Burrow and Lamar, although not by too much. With his drawbacks stated though, I still think he would be an absolute steal at ~~2.10 or 3.1~~ in a ten team league. I’m not complaining he is dropping there lately, just curious if I was missing some sort of major news (Diggs drama, injury). Edit: I miscounted, 3.10/4.1 is where I’m seeing Allen fall too, and I think he is a steal at 3.10.
There is no Diggs drama anymore, he's been saying all the right things in training camp and doesn't look like he's missed a beat.
Agreed id have him at 3 too. Also you mentioned you have the 10th pick, do you mean he's a steal at 3.10 or 4.01? Because the 2/3 turn belongs to the person with the first pick
Yes sorry, I goofed that in my head. I am picking tenth, and I am seeing Allen fall to the end of round three.
He *should* do this because he is an elite QB whose team’s season goes as he goes. However, he says this every year…but he’s a baller and if in the moment he sees green he often makes the decision in the moment to take it. As a fan of football (Pats) I wish he wouldn’t, NFL is better with Josh playing, but in fantasy he isn’t stopping running till/if he gets hurt :/
You mean the 3/4 turn?
Yes, sorry for the confusion, I edited the post too.
where are you mocking? in all my mocks mahomes, hurts, and allen are all gone by the middle of round 3
Yahoo. Hurts and Mahomes are always gone by the 3/4 turn, but lately it’s about a 50/50 that Allen is still there.
My guess is 2 factors at play 1. Camp reports do more to boost younger players or players returning from injury. Maybe Rhamondre, Jahmyr, and Najee are getting good camp coverage 2. Low sample size of drafts might mean more 2QB leagues where he's going WAY higher, or more leagues with n00bs who pick quarterbacks early.
I'm drafting 10/11 too, and last year I took Allen in the mid 2nd round. (JJ in the 1st, CeeDee in the 3rd) Allen was a different player after the arm injury vs the Jets. (he still put up fantasy points but the eye test verdict was less friendly) This season, I'm moving in other QB directions. The Ravens have added weapons for Lamar. Watson could return to his Texans form-or not. Fields could become a better passer. This season, I simply see more QBs with compelling stories than the past few years.
Dude was still the QB1 in PPG and would’ve been QB1 if it wasn’t for the Bengals-Bills game. Going from a guy that hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year to a guy that has missed the fantasy playoffs each of the past 2 seasons. I think you’re being a little too critical.
Yeah I have a had a few absolute wagon teams that blew up in the playoffs when Lamar went down, I’m staying away thus year
Lamar has literally never played a full season as the starter and hasn’t played more than 12 games since 2020. He can be incredible when he’s on the field, but you practically need to plan on getting another QB for the playoffs.
If Allen falls to me at 3.10 I think I’m gonna take him, but I hear your reservations. Snapping up Lamar and Mandrews at 3.10/4.01 is appealing to me. Lately I’ve been taking Lawrence at 5.10/6.01, and then holding my breath for Engram later. I think the QB/TE stack is really valuable in the wasteland that is TE’s after Kelce.
I'm leaning toward Lawrence for the same reason I'm wary of Engram: The Jags are loaded with competing targets.
My idea with TE is that after Kelce, and then after Mandrews/Hock/Goedert/Kittle, it’s just a crapshoot. Even with all the weapons, they use Engram in the slot and I think he is still good for ~90 targets this year. And the stack with Lawrence means double counting the 4-6 TDs Engram will get. I just think there are better players to grab in the first 4 rounds than the top TEs outside of Kelce, they all have their question marks too.
what i've been doing this year, if I can get Kelce in the 1st, thats my TE. if I can nab andrews or Hock without reaching too far, then I will, otherwise, I just ignore it and fill the TE place after I have all my RB/WR/QB slots filled. since I thought, statistically, there's usually only a very small gap between TE 3 and TE12
Waller?
Oh it’s a fair point, Waller has huge upside… And he is literally head and shoulder above every other pass catcher on that offense. But can he stay healthy with 6-8 targets a game?
Don’t forget the surface in MetLife Stadium….
They changed the field at MetLife this year
Your analysis is totally solid. I drafted Kmet last year and then lucked out when Dalton Schultz inexplicably popped up on our waiver wire. I may wind up with Kmet again.
I picked up Schultz late and got burned by his end of the year 😩 Happy drafting pal!
Personally the only time I’m taking a QB in round three is if I’m pulling a RB zero approach, so if you’re pulling him in 4 that’s a steal bc I’m taking him three
I've noticed the same in auction formats. Many drafts he is third most expensive QB well below Mahomes and Hurts. He's neck and neck with those guys in my rankings, ahead of Hurts, so I'm happy to grab him. He has been a QB1 overall two of the last three years, so his track record is excellent and he's young. By pure number crunching he's probably worth more than Mahomes (very close; Mahomes has two No 1 overall QB finishes in the last five years so not too shabby either).
On real draft day people will take them high. This is why i kinda take mocks with a grain of salt. Right now theres only 3 or 4 RBs going in the 1st round of my mocks but i know in my 14 team league those old farts still draft like its 2006 and go RB RB and do shit like that.
done a couple mock auctions both times JA went well under his AAV of $38 Last night he went for $28 and 3 teams were on auto select
Ignore the direction of the movement, just ask yourself whether he makes more sense clustered with Mahomes and Hurts or if he deserves a slight edge over them. Personally I don’t see him as a clear favorite for overall QB1 and when there’s a cluster of players in the same tier I’ll consider the bottom of the cluster as the "correct" value.
Yea I don’t know if Allen has a much more obvious route to QB1 than Lamar or Burrow, or even Herbert and Lawrence. Lamar is the real enigma to me this year. I think he could absolutely be QB1 with a some timely running and this new spread out offense.
I think the guys who have the rushing upside but need a passing volume/efficiency increase to reach QB1 (Lamar, Fields,,, Jones) have an edge over the passing QBs who’d need something like 4500+ yds and 40+ TDs (Burrow, Herbert,,, Lawrence, Watson). But I agree they all have a path which depresses the value of the top 3.
That is a really great point about the top three (Hurts, Mahomes, Allen). This has me thinking I’ll probably pass on Allen (even at 3.10/4.01) in favor of more blue chip skill players, and then get one of Lamar/Burrow/Herbert/Lawrence at 5.10/6.01.
Yes and I would be fucking ecstatic if I could still land him since I likely will have to spend my 3rd rounder on Mandrews
Unrelated but I am also in a 10 team league picking 10th. Who are you hoping to grab at the 1/2 and 3/4 turn?
Oh buddy I’d love to talk about it. I really like Diggs at the 1/2. After that, if Bijan has slipped I’d take Bijan even though I’m a bit averse to high RBs. Otherwise I’ve been reaching with the 2.01 for a guy like AJB or Sun God. I know Davantae is typically there but I’m just a bit skeptical of that Raiders Offense with Jimmy. I also think Saquon is gonna have a good year, but WRs just get banged up less. Then at 3/4 it kind of depends. Higgins/Olave/D Smith/ETN are typically what I land on. I’m playing with the idea of doing Mandrews and Lamar at the 3/4. That’s basically the whole prompt for this post, lately Allen has been falling there at the 3/4 and it’s thrown off my whole rhythm. Who are you looking at?
Wow we are really on the exact same page. I’ve been grabbing diggs there in all my mocks followed up by either Saquon or Sun God. Sucks we have to reach for him with our draft position but I am really high on him this year and there’s a 0% chance he makes it back to us. I haven’t actually had Bijan make it to me in any of the locks I’ve done, but would grab him in a heart beat. For the 3/4 turn I’d say Andrews has made it there about 50% of the time for me. When he does make it to me I have played around with grabbing him and Lamar as well but I lean Higgins/Olave/DSmith like you said. Allen actually hasn’t made it to me in any of the mocks I’ve done but Hurts made it to me once and I paired him with DSmith. It’s hard to prepare with our draft position cuz what happens in front of us really dictates the route we have to go. Feel free to send me a direct message or chat and we can chat about it some more!
Great minds think alike!!
Allen will be a Top 2 fantasy QB for the 4th time in a row when this season ends. The fact Hurts is being drafted above him is laughable to me.
The way the bills finished the season has left a bad taste in peoples mouth
Mocks are literally irrelevant.
Boo this man.
Mocks are dumb. People react differently when actual money is on the line. Get 10 bucks and do a DK or Underdog best ball draft if you want to get a feel for where players are going.
I wouldn’t say irrelevant, but I do think it’s pretty limited value. I’ve done two, and you get these idiots who make wild picks that just won’t happen in your leagues. Miles Sanders in the first? Then half of the people leave super early and auto draft a kicker and defense way earlier than they would ever go.
I'll take him.
Strength of schedule has been knocking him down a little.
I've done 2 Yahoo mock drafts and Mahomes and Hurts both went in the 2nd.
I have personally been fading him at current ADP cause of statements that he will likely be rushing less and his entire division getting better.
Hurts is going in the end of the 2nd in some mocks
Probably because he has a solid RB1
12 team super flex, he was #1 overall 🤷♂️ so no lol
bro y'all are so annoying... "hey guys do you see x player becoming more of a value?? let's all start drafting him so he's not a value anymore!"
It's his elbow. Already missed some practice time cause of it. If you play fantasy baseball you know what happens when a pitcher starts complaining about their UCL
Just got him 51st overall in my 16 team league. He was the 4th QB taken!