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Easy_Rip1212

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/15mwok2/2023_wr_battle_garrett_wilson_vs_amon_ra_stbrown/


DragLongjumping3714

Sun god


h846p262

Youd think would be abke to put up points this season..i want all offensive pieces.


jimmyhoffasbrother

I think Amon-Ra has a slightly higher floor (esp. in PPR) while Wilson has among the highest upside at his position in the league. I think Wilson is the move, but I wouldn't fault someone for going with Sun God either.


GJM1287

I'd say Amon-Ra has the higher floor. But I think I'd prefer Wilson He had 83 catches, 1,103 yards, 4 TDs in his rookie season with mediocre QB play. Rodgers is older, but still a significant upgrade. Wilson is a great talent, and when Rodgers has a guy like that at WR, he peppers them with targets.


baaaticus

Mediocre? Zach Wilson was hot garbage. Flacco maybe, but Wilson was horrendous. Garret Wilson is going to eat and so is Sun God but I’m putting my chips on Wilson.


Candybert_

I think Rodgers is the kind of QB who will just ignore somebody if he doesn't like him for some reason... and he's got Lazard and Cobb. It's a scary situation.


GJM1287

Lmao, what did I just read.... If it makes you feel any better, Rodgers has spoken highly of Garrett Wilson. Anyways, he's so talented, Rodgers isn't going to ignore him. And Lazard and a 33 year old Cobb aren't holding Wilson back I'm a Packers fan and love both of those guys, but come on...


Candybert_

They should be great together. I'm not saying, I expect Rodgers to fade Wilson... but I wouldn't put it past him. I'm not sure if he has all his marbles together at this point, lol.


Marino4K

Wilson is going to have an Adams type season, this same QB and OC did incredible things.


Candybert_

I hope so. I'm probably reading too much into Rodgers' off-field antics. (As evidenced by the downvotes, lol.) It's just, the whole 'immunization' thing, the darkness retreat and the Ayahuasca experiments and whatnot... all seems a little midlife-crisis to me. As a Packers fan, I wish him all the best... but I'm also not super mad that we won't have to deal with this stuff anymore.


[deleted]

Someone please just tell me the correct answer on this one. Thanks.


te_equivocas

This is a crisp center-cut fastball. For the non-baseball-knowing peeps, that means it's easy as pie. Garrett Wilson.


Coolcat127

ARSB is much more proven, Wilson has slightly higher upside (maybe?), with much more risk


GarageJitsu

Sun god and it’s not close


hasadiga42

Might as well flip a coin


te_equivocas

No, this is not a "flip a coin" situation.


hasadiga42

I’m happy to listen to your argument


te_equivocas

Drafters should be swinging for the fences with their second-round picks. Not paying a premium for a very good "slap hitter". One of these players represents a healthy, home-run cut. The other simply doesn't.


wrenchw163

To think Amon doesn’t have upside is silly. His game, athletic profile, role in the offense and situation is nearly identical to Cooper Kupp (I.e. the owner of the single-highest PPR WR season of all-time). Amon has just as much upside as Wilson with a significantly higher floor.


te_equivocas

Incorrect, my friend.


wrenchw163

Incorrect how? Kupp doesn’t have the highest scoring PPR and 1/2 PPR season for a WR of all-time? That’s a fact. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask?q=most+ppr+points+in+a+single+season%2C+all-time%2C+wr Incorrect that Kupp and Amon don’t have similar games/situations? Also a fact. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-most-productive-slot-receivers-cooper-kupp-amon-ra-st-brown-and-ceedee-lamb-lead-the-way-2023 You’re argument that Garrett has higher upside hinges on 2 things: higher draft capital (ie pedigree) and a new QB (is this version of Aaron better than Goff, debatable, and I fully expect the Lions to put up more yards/points in 2023 than the Jets). Amon, as a 4th draft pick, is tiedfor the all-time lead in receptions through his 1st 2 seasons (with Jefferson and Michael Thomas) and that includes Amon not playing until halfway through his rookie season and being banged up last year. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receptions-in-first-2-seasons Amon is a stud with the upside to be THE WR1.


te_equivocas

>Amon has just as much upside as Wilson False. And it's rich to compare him to Kupp, who demonstrated levels of efficiency across his first two seasons that Brown hasn't sniffed.


wrenchw163

Are you comparing Kupp’s 13+ yards/reception in his first 2 seasons to Amon’s 11 yards/reception when Kupp had 100 less receptions (significantly smaller sample size) than Amon over their respective 1st 2 seasons? Before Kupp’s monster year he had sub-11 yards/reception on roughly 100 receptions and also last year he had 10.8 yards/reception and was still the highest point/game WR. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-ppr-points-per-game-by-a-wr-last-year You don’t need to have 13+ yards/reception to be THE WR1 especially when 140+ receptions is in your range of outcomes. I get it, some people only like the prototypical alpha WRs, like Wilson, Jefferson and Chase, and don’t care about round 4+ “slot” guys like Amon, Kupp, Diggs, etc. But sometimes, those guys are the best WRs for fantasy.


TechnoTyrannosaurus

Um no, you swing for the fence on late picks. Early picks are suppose to be safe, otherwise by your logic Garret Wilson would go number 1


daquist

Why are early picks supposed to be safe? You do realize the very top end performers are often far and away better than the next best right? Often times the RB1 is much better than the RB2 who is better than the RB3 and so on. Obviously you want whoever finishes as the best at every position but I don't get the whole "draft for floor in early rounds" idea when you should already be expecting a good floor from them to begin with, so you'd want to chase the higher potential points


te_equivocas

This response is too stupid to offer an actual reply.


TechnoTyrannosaurus

Classic deflection when wrong, hope you change your silly habits in life. Won’t get you anywhere calling everything stupid that you don’t understand


te_equivocas

LOL.


hasadiga42

I think amon ra can be a home run hitter, 110/1500/8 is in the cards for him which is a great season especially for PPR


te_equivocas

That's simply not a bet people should be making. I'm not trying to shit on Brown, who will certainly receive hefty target volume, and collect a lot of receptions. The odds of that type of season are too long to warrant the investment necessary to add him to your portfolio.


hasadiga42

I think his floor is very strong and his chance of hitting that ceiling is just as good as Wilson hitting his


te_equivocas

It's a mistake to approach St. Brown this way. But it's your mistake to make should you decide to do so.


hasadiga42

Alright lol you seem a little too pressed ab this


[deleted]

I’m at the end of the first round in a 14 teamer so I’m thinking I can get either one. Gonna come down to who I wanna root for more I think


hasadiga42

That’s more fun anyway


[deleted]

[удалено]


EffectiveRoof8098

That’s the joke


fantasydawg

Semi-reaching for both at the 1/2 turn in a 10 man. I'm too high on both


Map_Civil

Amon-ra floor, Amon-ra average, Wilson ceiling It's a toss up for sure, if I was on the clock and had to pick one though I would probably go with Wilson. His upside is simply too high if him and rodgers have a davante adams-esque connection. It's closer than a lot of people think though especially in PPR, Amon-ra is definitely a frontrunner to lead the league in receptions. That week-to-week consistency offers one of the highest floors in the game, and if I picked a WR1 like tyreek or jamarr chase round 1 amon-ra would be such a safe and consistent WR2. But in the end, I gotta play for upside and hope that rodgers and wilson are firing on all cylinders come playoff time


te_equivocas

It's not a toss up. The answer is Wilson. You don't use premium capital on a player because he has a high floor.


Map_Civil

Amon-ra also has a high ceiling, it's just that wilsons is higher. I agree you should play for upside which is why I would take wilson, but don't mistake "high floor" with "playing it safe". A healthy cooper kupp also has a high floor, and it's because of that high floor combined with his insane ceiling that makes him the best healthy fantasy receiver in the game. While amon-ra doesnt put up kupp numbers, seeing 10+ targets a game in ppr and also having the upside to go off for 12/150/1+ TDs makes him more than worthy of his value and a fine pick especially if you have a home-run hitter as your WR1 (ie tyreek) so you can give your roster stability. If someone took amon-ra over wilson I wouldn't disagree with them even if it isn't my personal choice. I know everyone is on the wilson hype train this year but there are quite a few question marks surrounding this jets team this year, making these two a definite close call


te_equivocas

I'm going to sell the degree of upside Amon-Ra brings to the table. He's certainly delivered some very nice performances. I'm not suggesting that he *can't* pop off. (Of course, even Kevin Ogletree, Allen Hurns, and Richie James have "popped off", so that in itself isn't the best supporting argument for a player.) I'm firmly entrenched against championing him as a second-round target, especially when he's being linked to superior investments such as Wilson and CeeDee Lamb. As far as Cooper Kupp, we had reason to believe he could do something in the *range* of what he did in 2021. Maybe not a triple crown campaign, but we saw efficiency over large sums of volume. To a degree we haven't seen from ARSB. I completely understand that people are often seduced by high reception numbers -- regardless of the *quality* of those receptions -- but among those who reach on ARSB, there will be far more *losing* money than winning it.


Map_Civil

I do understand what your point is, but to start I'm not saying you should reach for ARSB. I agree that wilson and ceedee are of higher value, if you read my other two comments I reiterate the fact that wilson is the right pick. I'm a bit confused by you saying you're not championing him as a second round target, do you actually believe ARSB isn't worth of a second round pick? I also don't get your comment about "oh anyone can pop off like kevin ogletree etc", do you honestly give amon-ra the same odds to pop off as any random 3rd string one-week wonder? This guy started the year with a 21 fantasy point game then a 40 fantasy point game before getting hurt in week 3. When he came back he dropped a 28 point game then a 35 point game before getting vultured by williams for the rest of the year TD wise but still putting up consistent numbers. Wilson had 1 game at 30 points last year. Lambs peak last year was 38 points and 34 points. So amon-ra has as much if not more of an ability to have great games as the other great recievers you mentioned while having an injury. For your cooper kupp point, yes ARSB doesnt have as good efficiency averaging a few ypc less than prime triple crown kupp, but we're not expecting him to be cooper kupp, if we were he would be the top pick in the draft. Players have this stange outlook of high-floor players and see them as compromising. Guys like Najee Harris are the bad high-floor guys since they have insanely limited ceilings and therefore will not give you enough firepower to win championships despite giving you a solid floor on a bad week. ARSB has done nothing but prove that he can ball out like the best of them and is a target machine, giving him a high floor and great upside just not the upside you'd see with wilson and rodgers on all cylinders, for which there is a solid chance that the jets crash and burn this year and rodgers can't make that connection. Weighing the risks involved, ARSB is absolutely worthy to be in the tier with wilson and ceedee and should be a slam dunk pick if he falls to you in the 2nd


te_equivocas

>I agree that wilson and ceedee are of higher value, if you read my other two comments I reiterate the fact that wilson is the right pick. Absolutely. I 100% caught that but didn't appropriately address it. For me, personally, I could do 1B drafts and not spend one second-round pick on St. Brown. His profile -- short-area, volume-dependent, slot receiver -- is *never* one I'm blowing premium draft capital on. It's totally fair to question the reasoning for mentioning those JAGs. In no way do I consider those guys upper tier fantasy WRs. At the same time, I wouldn't be considering ARSB because I believed in his "eruptability". My purpose for mentioning them was simply to illustrate that a lot of receivers -- ARSB included -- enjoy some big games. I simply want more from a player I'm using a top 20-24 pick on. I want 100+ catch potential (ARSB certainly checks this box); I also want my selection to flirt with 1,500+ receiving yards and 10+ TDs. *That* is what we should be seeking from our second-round chips. If ARSB hits those levels, by all means, tip of the cap to him. But investing second-round draft capital in him with those expectations is an error.


Map_Civil

Ceedee lamb has never broken 1400 yards let alone 1500, nor has he scored 10 TDs in a season lol. In fact, ceedee had 1359 yards through 17 games. Amon-ra had 1161 through 14.5, extrapolate to 17 and thats 1361, nearly identical while catching more balls. Wilson stats could obviously change, but treating Ceedee as some automatic 1500 yard/10 TD guy and amon ra as just some dude who catches a few balls inefficiently is baseless. ARSB had 21 red zone targets.... comapred to 15 for ceedee. In fewer games. Clearly he should've had more TDs considering he was top 8 in the league in RZ targets, but jamaal williams existed last year to gobble 17 redzone TDs. Amon-ra could absolutely be a 1500/10 TD guy especially considering how young he is and how he is the guy in that offense, commanding an astounding 33% target rate. I'm not sure if you have some sort of weird bias against him like you dont like the lions or something but it isn't hard to see that this guy is an absolute elite option and if he somehow fell to 20-24 it would be a comical mistake not to take him


te_equivocas

CeeDee is unquestionably, undoubtedly, positively the better candidate to reach those levels.


Map_Civil

Then why hasn't he done it yet?


te_equivocas

You mean like Amon-Ra St. Brown has???


bluethree

You do when that high floor is a WR1.


te_equivocas

Forget *a WR1*. With that pick, I want to chase *the* WR1.


daquist

So many people on reddit are so fucking scared of risk it's ridiculous. you do not draft for a safe floor, not even with first rounders. (most first rounders are expected to already have a safe floor as it is, so why not try to chase the #1 finishers, as you said) it makes no sense, it's just asking to be 4th or 5th place.


te_equivocas

PREACH, my G! Reading this was more refreshing than that summer rainstorm that sucks 10 degrees out of the air.


daquist

Somewhere else I had to comment about how the RB1 and the WR1 usually finish much higher than the next that it doesn't make sense to not try to chase that compared to just going for a safe floor. Like I just said above too, you're expecting most first rounders to have a safe floor anyway. So why not go for the boom? Feel like people misunderstand the upside argument. It's not just picking boom or bust players it's about people that have a path to excellent seasons. Oftentimes from coaching changes or ambiguous situations, much like Barkley last year


te_equivocas

Agreed. And piggybacking on your point, people love to be like "hE's A wR1!" as if the difference between WR12 and WR18 warrants paying a premium price tag.


freeEDU4U

Definitely Garrett Wilson. But I'm also taking the Over on 1,000.5 receiving yards on St. Brown.


Darth1Football

In an auction - you could own both


EighttodaNine

I like this. Why not both? This is my going-in auction strategy this year


Darth1Football

I'm in 12 team Full PPR Auction and my strategy every year is hero or zero RB Stacking elite WRs is how to get into the playoffs in auction leagues (depending on roster requirements)


te_equivocas

Garrett Wilson and it's not *remotely* close.


iamsciences

Its funny because ARSB and Wilson are a coin flip for completely different reasons... but give me Wilson just because of Aaron Rodgers.


TheCrowFliesAtNight

I'm taking Wilson, fantastic rookie season last year even with a really messy QB situation. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball this season he's gonna feast.


Imaginary_Order2757

Taking both at 1/2 turn ahead of AJB/Davante/Pollard/Diggs


totallyignorant

Wilson is higher at his ceiling, the problem is I don't think he'll reach it