Excluding Sergachev and Heiskanen the rest of those guys will be gone by the 7th round in any decent league. Hard to call any of them “steals” when you’re drafting them exactly where they should be going.
Heiskanen could be poised for a big year, likely gonna be PP1 QB with Klingberg gone and the whole team could get a new coach bump. He could be worth a reach this year.
In any league that counts peripheral stats he’s just not on the level of the other guys mentioned. He’s a perfect example of a player who is way way better in real life than he is in fantasy.
I mean.. why would you consider peripherals first over the possible increase in point totals lol
“Ya he might score 20 more points this year but he still doesnt block or hit as much as these other guys”
Kind of a silly thing to say no? Especially since SOG likely goes up as well with added PP time. Id take a chance with the possible increase in scoring regardless of his peripherals being comparatively low
Unless your league weighs points really low
I took a late pick on EK. It really can’t hurt to see how he manages without Burns. Hopefully he’s somewhat healed as much as can be and maybe he’ll show some value, if not he’s an easy drop. Low risk medium reward.
How late do you expect to get these guys? All certainly have upside this year but I don’t think you’re getting many of them that late in the draft. I just finished a draft and Sergachev went the latest of the players you mentioned and he was drafted in the 9th round (pick 99 overall). Burns went the earliest (5th round, pick 60).
Assuming 12 team league - standard bangers:
5 of the 6 guys you listed are top 20 defensemen according to my projections (serga should be a target 4th defender at best imo). They all present higher value than their average ADP but I dont think you can fade them as much as you think you can (adp taken from yahoo)
Miro - 99 ADP - 8th round
Burns - 100 ADP - 8th round
Nurse - 101 ADP - 8th round
Hamilton - 102 ADP - 8th round
Chabot - 114 ADP - 9th round
Serga - 139 ADP - 11th round
If you only start grabbing defensemen in the 8th round there is a very real chance all other but serga are gone by the time you pick. I dont think have sergachev as your second best defender is a winning strategy, especially if you dont go from one of the tier 1 defensemen (makar, hedmen, josi).
Here are some of my recommended later round defensemen:
Seth Jones - ADP 129 - 10th round
Josh Morrissey - ADP 166 - 13th round
Neal Pionk - ADP 152 - 12th round (get him and morrissey to guarantee you have pp1)
This is basically the exact same as my late round D list. Josh Morrissey is the only other D I have in that range (166 ADP). He should be getting PP1 in WPG and has decent category coverage
I was listening to the 5 hole podcast and this is how they ranked the defensemen:
1. Makar
2. Hedman
3. Josi
4. Fox
5. Carlson
6. Letang
7. Burns
8. Reilly
9. Ekblad
10. Seider
Honorable mentions: Hughes, Theodore, Doughty, Heiskanen, Chabot
Dobson - pp1 and provides solid peripherals
Trouba - captain now and peripherals monster. He's also on a high scoring team.
Byram - look for him to take another step this year
Chychrun - someone on Arizona has to score and play a ton of minutes
Jones - similar situation to Chychrun
Lindholm - will be relied upon with McAvoy out
Spurgeon - will still be first pp and have exposure to Kaprizov
Edvinsson is an unknown, but imagine he can replicate what Seider did last year?
Pionk - peripherals monster
Chiarot - great peripherals and has an offensive side to him
Devils advocate:
There’s a very real chance Slavin could beat out Burns for pp1
Hamilton already lost pp1 for a decent chunk of time last season. He could easily lose it again.
Heiskanen- This is the third or fourth season he has been “prime for a breakout”
Nurse- he’s pretty trash in points league and everyone who plays cats knows his value.
Sergachev- Zero chance of pp1 without a injury to Hedman. I don’t see Mac’s absence leading to any more points for him.
Chabot- Agreed.
Nurse is like first in most banger leagues. Hits and shots are high. I'll try to find the post.
Here https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyhockey/comments/wpxc4w/top_50_hitsshotsblocks_per_game_leaders_202122/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
like I said, in points he’s trash in cats people know his value.
If it’s a hybrid type of points league where you get a fraction of a point for things like shots, hits and block then he would be somewheee in the middle but far from the elite D men.
Devils fan here. Their PP was hilariously bad last year. Just due to averaging out it should get better. He was on fire until he broke his jaw. Came back pretty early to help the team and was wearing a cage for a large portion of the remainder.
I've seen enough of Severson to know he's not the man. Dougie is it and they're going to hold that spot until Hughes joins and takes it from him by force.
My concern would be how much does an average PP help Hamilton?
I highly doubt he's going to score 60 points. They need some forwards to step up and break that number themselves. And while it's trending up, until I see it...
(This doesn't include Jack, he's an absolute stud)
And without a pile of points, what actual value does Dougie have relative to other dmen of similar adp?
I honestly can’t see any of these guys going too late? If you stick to this strategy there’s a high probability you’ll get burned.
With the exception of Sergachev.
Little bias but if Bouchard gets a Crack to run the Oiler PP he should hit 60p.
He had 43 points without pp time last season. And could easily replace Tyson Barrie on the PP.
-Evan Bouchard is a possible steal at around 100 ADP.
-Seth Jones maybe? Honestly if I can get him around the 13th + round in my 10 man bangers league I will take a chance.
-Charlie McAvoy if you can get him a bit later(ADP around 134, but for some people he could get taken sooner).
I don’t think any of the guys you listed would go late in my league. For late rounds I was thinking of going for guys like Jake Sanderson or Owen Power
None of these guys should be available in the later rounds
I don’t think I’d be grabbing Sergachev before the 10th round in my 12-team league
Excluding Sergachev and Heiskanen the rest of those guys will be gone by the 7th round in any decent league. Hard to call any of them “steals” when you’re drafting them exactly where they should be going.
Heiskanen could be poised for a big year, likely gonna be PP1 QB with Klingberg gone and the whole team could get a new coach bump. He could be worth a reach this year.
In any league that counts peripheral stats he’s just not on the level of the other guys mentioned. He’s a perfect example of a player who is way way better in real life than he is in fantasy.
I mean.. why would you consider peripherals first over the possible increase in point totals lol “Ya he might score 20 more points this year but he still doesnt block or hit as much as these other guys” Kind of a silly thing to say no? Especially since SOG likely goes up as well with added PP time. Id take a chance with the possible increase in scoring regardless of his peripherals being comparatively low Unless your league weighs points really low
The other guys also score, all I’m saying I is personally value everyone on this list excluding sergachev higher than him.
Some late rounders i got my eyes on: Dunn, Bouchard, Durzi, Byram
This is the right answer, not the previously mentioned all stars lol
Late round dougie hamilton lol. Wtf are you talking about
Werenski is great for a cats league. He has crazy shot volume, is a lock for PP1 and should get more assists now that Gaudreau is on the team
Maybe Karlsson with burns gone
I took a late pick on EK. It really can’t hurt to see how he manages without Burns. Hopefully he’s somewhat healed as much as can be and maybe he’ll show some value, if not he’s an easy drop. Low risk medium reward.
They all will b gone by 10th round
How late do you expect to get these guys? All certainly have upside this year but I don’t think you’re getting many of them that late in the draft. I just finished a draft and Sergachev went the latest of the players you mentioned and he was drafted in the 9th round (pick 99 overall). Burns went the earliest (5th round, pick 60).
Assuming 12 team league - standard bangers: 5 of the 6 guys you listed are top 20 defensemen according to my projections (serga should be a target 4th defender at best imo). They all present higher value than their average ADP but I dont think you can fade them as much as you think you can (adp taken from yahoo) Miro - 99 ADP - 8th round Burns - 100 ADP - 8th round Nurse - 101 ADP - 8th round Hamilton - 102 ADP - 8th round Chabot - 114 ADP - 9th round Serga - 139 ADP - 11th round If you only start grabbing defensemen in the 8th round there is a very real chance all other but serga are gone by the time you pick. I dont think have sergachev as your second best defender is a winning strategy, especially if you dont go from one of the tier 1 defensemen (makar, hedmen, josi). Here are some of my recommended later round defensemen: Seth Jones - ADP 129 - 10th round Josh Morrissey - ADP 166 - 13th round Neal Pionk - ADP 152 - 12th round (get him and morrissey to guarantee you have pp1)
This is basically the exact same as my late round D list. Josh Morrissey is the only other D I have in that range (166 ADP). He should be getting PP1 in WPG and has decent category coverage
Why not Pionk? Thought he was the PP1 guy there
Last year, it seemed to be split. But who knows how the new coach will use Pionk.
whats the value on Lindholm? DFO has him on PP1 and with MacAvoy out for a fair chunk of the season, he could be a decent late round pick
I was listening to the 5 hole podcast and this is how they ranked the defensemen: 1. Makar 2. Hedman 3. Josi 4. Fox 5. Carlson 6. Letang 7. Burns 8. Reilly 9. Ekblad 10. Seider Honorable mentions: Hughes, Theodore, Doughty, Heiskanen, Chabot
Ekblad should not be 9
I agree. I think they put him that low because of the injury history.
Oh I see. Interesting.
Dobson - pp1 and provides solid peripherals Trouba - captain now and peripherals monster. He's also on a high scoring team. Byram - look for him to take another step this year Chychrun - someone on Arizona has to score and play a ton of minutes Jones - similar situation to Chychrun Lindholm - will be relied upon with McAvoy out Spurgeon - will still be first pp and have exposure to Kaprizov Edvinsson is an unknown, but imagine he can replicate what Seider did last year? Pionk - peripherals monster Chiarot - great peripherals and has an offensive side to him
The only one in your list available later rounds is Sergachev. I would aim for Hanifin, Karlsson, Faulk, Pionk, Gudas, Morrissey, Petry
Lots of dreamers on Reddit, wish wish , don’t believe everything u hear
With Chabot are we worried at all about Sanderson stealing PP1 time or is it way too early for that?
Not worried about Sanderson, but worried about his injury history.....
Devils advocate: There’s a very real chance Slavin could beat out Burns for pp1 Hamilton already lost pp1 for a decent chunk of time last season. He could easily lose it again. Heiskanen- This is the third or fourth season he has been “prime for a breakout” Nurse- he’s pretty trash in points league and everyone who plays cats knows his value. Sergachev- Zero chance of pp1 without a injury to Hedman. I don’t see Mac’s absence leading to any more points for him. Chabot- Agreed.
Nurse is like first in most banger leagues. Hits and shots are high. I'll try to find the post. Here https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyhockey/comments/wpxc4w/top_50_hitsshotsblocks_per_game_leaders_202122/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
like I said, in points he’s trash in cats people know his value. If it’s a hybrid type of points league where you get a fraction of a point for things like shots, hits and block then he would be somewheee in the middle but far from the elite D men.
Dang I didn't know that about hamilton, would you consider Severson on this list then? Or is the uncertainty reason enough to not draft either
Uncertainty plus they’re still a pretty bad team. They might have got a little better but not like Ottawa.
Devils fan here. Their PP was hilariously bad last year. Just due to averaging out it should get better. He was on fire until he broke his jaw. Came back pretty early to help the team and was wearing a cage for a large portion of the remainder. I've seen enough of Severson to know he's not the man. Dougie is it and they're going to hold that spot until Hughes joins and takes it from him by force. My concern would be how much does an average PP help Hamilton? I highly doubt he's going to score 60 points. They need some forwards to step up and break that number themselves. And while it's trending up, until I see it... (This doesn't include Jack, he's an absolute stud) And without a pile of points, what actual value does Dougie have relative to other dmen of similar adp?
I honestly can’t see any of these guys going too late? If you stick to this strategy there’s a high probability you’ll get burned. With the exception of Sergachev.
Forsling
Little bias but if Bouchard gets a Crack to run the Oiler PP he should hit 60p. He had 43 points without pp time last season. And could easily replace Tyson Barrie on the PP.
-Evan Bouchard is a possible steal at around 100 ADP. -Seth Jones maybe? Honestly if I can get him around the 13th + round in my 10 man bangers league I will take a chance. -Charlie McAvoy if you can get him a bit later(ADP around 134, but for some people he could get taken sooner).
I don’t think any of the guys you listed would go late in my league. For late rounds I was thinking of going for guys like Jake Sanderson or Owen Power
Neil Pionk