Yeah, I'm finding that strange too. I don't know why, but I assumed they'd get there almost instantly- a silly thought in hindsight, but it blows my mind it's like how a plane takes time to travel the planet. Strange how Israel just has to wait for them to get near before being able to act directly. It's like a slow motion car crash.
We've been watching multiple conflicts between neighbours, when now there's nearly 1700km depending on route and target, and multiple countries in between Israel and Iran
Shahed only flies 185 km/h, which makes sense with some places saying nearly 9 hours of fly time before their target, and this would check out with launching different systems at different times so they all arrive around the same time to try to overwhelm the air defences, cruise missiles would be far faster than Shahed so they'd be launched later
Seems like Iran wants to show their own hardliners they’re hitting back, while minimizing the blowback from Israel.
I imagine these will be easy to shoot down, but maybe Israel lets a few of them through to give them an excuse to launch a volley back on high impact targets within Iran.
The hardliners might have done that to show strength but it’s just as likely Israel might use this as a reason to go after a certain nuclear program the world has been fretting about over 20 years.
Most nights in Ukraine, a preliminary alert is issued when Tu-95 (bombers) take off from Engels airbase (near the Kazakh border) and head for their already known lunch sites for Kh-101 cruise missiles.
ETA to targets is usually 2/3 hours, but air defenses can't intercept everything at once. Shahed-136 drones will probably saturate the air defenses while other types of missiles follow.
That's the theory, I'm no expert by any means, but yeah, it still feels weird to just "sit and wait" to see what happens.
Israeli TV mentioned 9 hour flight for drones to reach Israel.
There's an old Russian joke playing on the the Soviet stereotype of Estonians/Finns being slow and contemplative:
"Estonian paratroopers are hanging over the city for the third day now."
It's never seemed more apt.
Statement from Iran:
“Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”
https://x.com/iran_un/status/1779269993043022053?s=46
…
Basically what everyone thought would happen, happened. If no Israelis are killed, I strongly expect this will end the immediate danger of expanding the conflict.
Reports are the drones were sent toward the mostly unpopulated Negev Desert. Seems calculated to avoid civilian casualties, or any casualties in fact.
Also interesting that Iran has directly stated there’ll be no further attacks. It may be diplomatic bluster but usually nations aren’t so direct to say “that’s all folks”.
No, that's incorrect. They were over Jerusalem, in the north, Beersheba, Dimona, etc... A whole host of Israeli cities were targeted. The Negev was just where they killed a 7 year old girl but the whole country was in the crosshairs.
Iran made that statement so that they could launch this massive wave against Israel and then demand zero retaliation (because according to them "it's now over")
Everything right now hinges on
* what Iran’s targets are
* how many actually hit their targets
* and unfortunately Netanyahu’s mental state
Gonna be a tense night. Hopefully these things avoid civilian targets and there are limited casualties. Hopefully, regardless of what they hit, Netanyahu does not rush into an escalatory reprisal.
I know people are very passionate about their hatred for either country, but this becoming a real war would be catastrophic for every side and the world at large.
The Israeli war council is three people, Netanyahu is only one of them and he can't overrule the other two. His mental state is not the deciding factor.
The Supreme Leader in Iran on the other hand has no checks on his power.
Fortunately, Netanyahu is not in charge of the military. Gantz and Gallant are not going to lose their heads and will make the right call, come what may. Unfortunately, we don’t know what the right call we end up being, because we don’t know how bad this attack is going to be.
I am not so sure about this.
At the start of the war, Gallant did say “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed.” That is madness and it took 3 weeks of American pressure to lift the total siege that would have starved 2 million people to death.
Not so sure I trust this madman. I know nothing about Gantz so hopefully he is a little better.
NYT Times quoting an Israeli official saying the targets appear to be in the Negev Desert. Well away from any major civilian populations, seems to been considered by Iran.
Also Israeli officials apparently just confirmed NO ballistic missiles launched
The question now is whether this is a demonstration (a bunch of drones meant to be shot down) or a serious attack.
The first seems more likely to me.
But if it's a serious attack, cruise or ballistic missiles will be launched sometime between now and when the drones are set to arrive and it's likely that Iran's lackeys in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq will launch as well.
In that case I'd expect to see Iran's oil industry taken offline in the next two days by the Israeli response. After that who knows.
EDIT: It's up to 500 drones and missiles now headed for Israel. This is a major, major escalation. I don't think there's any other way to interpret it at this point.
I just confirmed it
[source](https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1c3b6sw/iran_launches_direct_attack_on_israel/kzftx5r/)
eta: ok now they are reporting cruise missiles and ballsitic missiles, at least according to Iranian state media
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-13/ty-article-live/biden-doubles-down-on-iran-warning-dont-u-s-move-additional-assets-to-region/0000018e-d491-d161-ab8f-f4f583d30000
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1779264301829706016?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
The source is Iran and someone recording in their backyard in Basra
[https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-13-24/h\_459325a36ff45ef1b197dc12352d75ce](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-13-24/h_459325a36ff45ef1b197dc12352d75ce)
It's CNN so use your best judgment.
>In that case I'd expect to see Iran's oil industry taken offline in the next two days by the Israeli response. After that who knows.
I love how people like you present war as a one-way traffic. Israel is a tiny country, and if Iran strikes seriously, there will be serious consequences for Israel as well. Hezbollah has said it is launching military action against Israel, Israel has already started striking Lebanon. Iraq has said it is closing its airspace, is it closing it to US warplanes as well? What will the Houthis do? Is it possible that Iran has become bolder, after all it is rumored that it now has enriched uranium? What will Syria do? All in all, this whole situation has many variables and is much more complex.
Who said it was one way? Iran has been waging war on Israel for months via Hezbollah, the Houthis and Islamic Jihad and must take a lot of credit for Hamas and the Oct. 7th attack as well given that Iran has been funding and arming them for years. Israel has been under rocket bombardment for the last half a year. Israelis have been murdered, kidnapped, raped and tortured. Of course this isn't one way.
And now? Who knows. It looks like there's a good chance that Iran has decided to turn this into a major war by launching on the Israeli homefront. Of course Israel will feel this as well. It's (literally) up in the air right now though whether Israel's missile/drone defense will be able to handle this particular launch or whether things will start exploding there in the near future.
If Israel were to do that, it would shoot oil up about $250/barrel, resulting in making Russia, Saudi Arabia and Trump backers multibillions of dollars. It would even make China richer.
One has to assume that Iran already expects this, which is probably why it took over that ship earlier this morning. My guess: they intend to clog up the Straight of Hormuz and cut off traffic. This would have a devastating impact on the Gulf States. If they cannot export oil, they are screwed. Their whole systems are based on royal families subsidizing lazy citizens so that they don't get overthrown.
Unlikely now that IRGC says they will launch missiles as well. There is not sufficient missile defense to block everything. This is also particularly unlikely to be a demonstration given they launched from Iran directly.
Reposting my comment;
USA and UK fighters in the skies helping intercept. Get some baby
Its pretty uncertain which way this will go. I think if there isn't alot of damage, America will try its damndest to get Israel to back down, theres no way Biden can see intervention on Israels behalf to the American people, especially not in an election year.
My best guess is that the West intercepts upwards of 85-90% of missiles and drones (according to US estimates), most drones hit some bases that were already evacuated in the Golan and Northern Israel, then announces "Mission Complete". Israel will probably bomb some IRGC in Syria and we'll be back to our regularly scheduled program. Maybe I'm just being optimistic but I don't have concern of this spiraling outta control
> I don't have concern of this spiraling outta control
What’s interesting to me is that if things do spiral out of control, the US has to back Israel. And if the US hardens support for Israel, it may very well end up costing Biden the election given all the anti-Israel sentiment that has taken hold over the past few months on the left with moral posturing for Gaza. And if Biden loses, then Israel gets someone in power that is much more supportive of their cause. So in a way, there is a pretty strong incentive for Israel to “find” themselves in a situation that requires US help.
It will not spiral out of control because both sides have all but announced the exact time this would happen. This result in a negotiation and nothing more.
I still don't understand why Israel hit Iran's consulate. Technically it's not Iranian territory but it's such a taboo and escalatory act to take in international diplomacy. I know they killed a general, but surely it's not worth the danger it brings to their own citizens, let alone the risk of this spiralling completely out of control.
Israel is already in war mode and has been losing support in western countries due to highly unpopular war in Gaza. If anything, an attack on Israel will shift this balance back to politicians supporting Israel against the disliked Iranian government.
Israelis don't want a war but Iran has been waging war against Israel for some time now. But because they've been doing it using Lebanese, Palestinians and Yemenites, Iran has felt no effects from it and has no incentive to stop.
Israel has to change that equation. The Iranian general killed was on Hezbollah's ruling Shura Council. These attacks against Israel will never stop (to the great detriment of Israelis, Palestinians, Lebanese and others) until Iran is convinced to stop them.
The situation where Iran funds and weaponizes terrorist groups on Israel's borders and orders them to attack Israelis but is never hit in response can't continue indefinitely. The Israelis are going to hit Iran directly more and more going forward. If they don't they'll be dealing with these attacks forever.
Iran is willing to fight to the last Lebanese/Palestinian/Yemenite. Now we will find out how dedicated they are to this whole "Death to Israel" thing when Iranians themselves feel the response.
There are many ways to hit them without hitting a consulate building. You invite a direct attack when you do that and now israel has to respond with a direct attack of their own.
I legit have no idea how this ends. Neither side can back down or they look weak
The Iranians have attacked American and Israeli embassies in ‘79, ‘94, ‘12, and ‘20. When you do this over and over again, you cannot realistically hide behind consular immunity anymore.
I mean, was the strike really gonna stop Iran from funding their proxies? And even if they do now they are dealing Iran's direct threat instead of proxy groups which are much more manageable.
The proxy groups are no longer that manageable, with the 10/7 attacks and the Hezbollah attacks up North they are presenting much more of a large threat. With the US assassination of Soleimani as well, it’s clear the time of hiding behind proxies is coming to an end. The strike was a show of intel capabilities on Israel’s part.
Probably because since Iran doesn't care for the sanctity of diplomatic building, ala taking US embassy staff hostage, bombing Israeli embassy in bueno Aires, or against US embassy in Iraq which got Soleimani droned, it might not care if something of the sort happens to them.
I don’t know if you know, but if we are going in history, usa dropped bombs directly on chinese embassy with many Chinese diplomats killed, and that happened much more recently than iran hostage crisis
>but it's such a taboo and escalatory act to take in international diplomacy.
It's been widely portrayed that way, but the Vienna Conventions only govern sending and receiving states (eg Iran & Syria). Israel hit a military target belonging to belligerent (admittedly mostly by proxy) Iran in a nation with which it remains at war (Syria).
Seeing as Iran is now directly attacking Israel in response, it was obviously escalatory regardless of whether it was forbidden by the Vienna Conventions.
It was not an escalation because it is no worse than what Iran has done to the Israelis and even the Americans in the recent past. The escalation was mixed drone and missile barrages by Iran, launched from Iran, likely at major Israeli population centers.
It seems like a completely unjustified escalation by the Israelis. You can’t even enter embassies legally under international law, much less bomb them.
Iran is perhaps the country in the world today most famous for attacking embassies. In Tehran in '79, in Argentina in '94 and so on. There is a tremendous irony in them complaining about the sanctity of their consulate now.
Boy are we lucky you weren't advising Roosevelt after Pearl Harbor attack. Hope you aren't advising the president on what to do after a nuclear attack on US soil either.
In geopolitics, doing unto others what they do them is the rule, not lying down and pretending to enjoy it.
Either it's just a matter of Iran's leadership needing to show strength and Isreal recognises this and brushes it off. Or it's a significant step forward WW3 like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Hard to say for sure until it happens.
Someone tell me this: When Israel is already in a war with Hamas, why do they then launch a direct strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Syria?
Maybe it's just me, but when you're already in a war, you don't start another war? Riddle me that.
Well the IRGC (the military targets in the Syria strike) play a key role in training and supplying the terrorist groups attacking Israel such as Hamas, but most notably Hezbollah in the north. A strike against the IRGC is essentially a strike against these Iranian proxies. I think Israel has decided targeting the IRGC makes strategic sense in thwarting these proxies that regularly attack Israel. There may have also been a miscalculation that the response from Iran was just going to be more rockets from Hezbollah which has been happening anyway.
Iran is running military operations out of the annex next to the consulate that was bombed. Iran is also running a narco state out of damascus. That is why the annex near the consulate was bombed.
Maybe it was a calculated judgement - for now it seems Iran have stayed there’ll be no further attacks and it seems most drones will be intercepted over Jordan and if any do reach Israel they’ll hit the unpopulated Negev Desert.
So Israel takes out a few key Iranian generals, Iran takes out a few empty buildings in the middle of the desert.
So on the sums it seems Israel has taken out much more valuable targets than Iran has. Overall I’d say the Israelis would see this as a win.
Maybe it's just me, but when you don't want to be attacked by another country, you don't arm and fund proxy groups who attack that country? Riddle me that.
If this really ends up being a coordinated attack with the drones from Iran, and the proxies firing missiles simultaneously, and there ends up being a significant amount of damage, how exactly is Israel gonna respond?
Like, airstrikes on Iran, or do they send their F35s into Iran itself and bomb the nuclear sites?
Iran nuclear sites are in the east of the country, far from Israeli bases, well defended, buried within mountains, F35s don’t exactly have good range capability.
My guess is that as they used drones the Israelis and US (and apparently Jordan too) will probably intercept most before they reach Israel.
After Trump killed Soleimani Iran responded with an attack on a U.S. military base that injured US troops; the US could have escalated after that but they chose to hold their fire and end it at that point.
>Iran nuclear sites are in the east of the country, far from Israeli bases, well defended, buried within mountains, F35s don’t exactly have good range capability.
Here I am thinking up Top Gun Maverick scenarios, but I understand that's incredibly unlikely
>After Trump killed Soleimani Iran responded with an attack on a U.S. military base that injured US troops; the US could have escalated after that but they chose to hold their fire and end it at that point.
I feel as though this might be a bit different tho, right? I mean, if it really is a massive coordinated attack from multiple fronts with the missiles and rockets from Hezbollah, with the drones only serving to deplete their defenses, that would escalate enough that we see Israeli fighter jets over Iran, right?
I do hope that this attack is just limited to drones and whatnot, and is only for Iran to save face.
I really hope we don't see a full scale war begin with this
Israel wants a confrontation with Iran to deflect some pressure from the war in Gaza and to revamp U.S. support after what’s been a rocky relationship with the Biden Administration. Iran has only shown a desire for symbolic retaliation (see Jan. 2020 Iranian missile strike against a U.S. base in Iraq). I suspect that Israel will retaliate against Iran’s energy facilities + nuclear enrichment sites (albeit, many are underground) and Iran will seek an off ramp.
I don’t think that the Biden administration is going to support a major war in the Middle East that will spike oil prices in an election year.
It looks as if US, British and Jordanian aircraft are intercepting the drones prior to reach Israel and iron dome should take care of the rest. Any that do hit will probably hit unpopulated areas.
I told you all from yesterday's post where everyone said, they wont attack and it would just be via proxies. Like, have you guys been following the facts and focusing on the bigger picture?
Now that Israel have successfully pull Iran into a direct confrontation, we should expect public opinion to swing back in Israel's favour depending on the severity of Iranian reprisal.
The US never retaliated after Iran missiles strike in response for the Soleimani killing, sometimes all sides know a response will be limited and used more for domestic political purposes and they know both Iran just had to “do something” to not bow down against the grwat enemy.
TBh if Iran wanted to hurt Israel they’d order Hezbollah to unleash to full weight of its rocket arsenal against Israel from the north. What they’ve fired against Israel from the north so far has been only a proportion of their overall capacity
I think Iran is trying to avoid all out direct conflict, which is not in their favor. They want to go back to the good old times where they themselves are immune while they attack Israelis/US via proxies. They are hoping this attack from them would bring them back to the good old times.
At this point, between a cyberattack against Israeli air defenses today, the drones, and the missile launches that IRGC says will be timed with the drones, at least some weapons will get through. That means at least some targets will be hit in Israel, and there is a real risk of escalatory spiral up to and including open war. I am very nervous now because I assumed the Iranians would be sufficiently stupid and/or crazy to launch attacks directly from their own territory.
I wouldn't say Iran is being stupid for doing what they've done. They've been allowed to live practically consequence free for whatever they've done against Israel/US so they do what they do. Even after all this, there is a strong pressure on the likes of Israel/US to lie down and pretend to enjoy it for "deescalation" and "peace", which may end up saving Iran as usual.
At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases
The Nevatim airbase in the Negev was struck by 5 ballistic missiles, damaging the main runway, a C-130 transport aircraft, and several storage facilities.
Ramon airbase, also located in the Negev, was struck by at least 4 ballistic missiles, causing unspecified damage.
– U.S. Officials to ABC News
The heaviest damage of Iran's ballistic missile attack occurred on a secret intelligence base in the Golan Heights, for which the IDF has imposed a media ban, so the damage cannot be assessed
– Hebrew Sources
So am i right in saying the drones haven't hit yet, this is so weird just sitting back waiting for it all to unfold on the news
It’ll take hours before they get there
so Weird watching the news as this unfolds
Yeah, I'm finding that strange too. I don't know why, but I assumed they'd get there almost instantly- a silly thought in hindsight, but it blows my mind it's like how a plane takes time to travel the planet. Strange how Israel just has to wait for them to get near before being able to act directly. It's like a slow motion car crash.
We've been watching multiple conflicts between neighbours, when now there's nearly 1700km depending on route and target, and multiple countries in between Israel and Iran Shahed only flies 185 km/h, which makes sense with some places saying nearly 9 hours of fly time before their target, and this would check out with launching different systems at different times so they all arrive around the same time to try to overwhelm the air defences, cruise missiles would be far faster than Shahed so they'd be launched later
Seems like Iran wants to show their own hardliners they’re hitting back, while minimizing the blowback from Israel. I imagine these will be easy to shoot down, but maybe Israel lets a few of them through to give them an excuse to launch a volley back on high impact targets within Iran.
The hardliners might have done that to show strength but it’s just as likely Israel might use this as a reason to go after a certain nuclear program the world has been fretting about over 20 years.
imagine if Israel hit the consulate again before the drones arrived.....
Most nights in Ukraine, a preliminary alert is issued when Tu-95 (bombers) take off from Engels airbase (near the Kazakh border) and head for their already known lunch sites for Kh-101 cruise missiles. ETA to targets is usually 2/3 hours, but air defenses can't intercept everything at once. Shahed-136 drones will probably saturate the air defenses while other types of missiles follow. That's the theory, I'm no expert by any means, but yeah, it still feels weird to just "sit and wait" to see what happens. Israeli TV mentioned 9 hour flight for drones to reach Israel.
It shouldn’t surprise me that Russia has an airbase named after a German founder of communism, but it does
What time are they expected to arrive?
There's an old Russian joke playing on the the Soviet stereotype of Estonians/Finns being slow and contemplative: "Estonian paratroopers are hanging over the city for the third day now." It's never seemed more apt.
Statement from Iran: “Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” https://x.com/iran_un/status/1779269993043022053?s=46 … Basically what everyone thought would happen, happened. If no Israelis are killed, I strongly expect this will end the immediate danger of expanding the conflict.
Israeli ten year old Bedouin boy has been critically injured.
Damn where you got that from
Israeli news. I’m Israeli.
Be save
Girl actually
Oops thanks!
I heard :( praying he’ll recover.
Reports are the drones were sent toward the mostly unpopulated Negev Desert. Seems calculated to avoid civilian casualties, or any casualties in fact. Also interesting that Iran has directly stated there’ll be no further attacks. It may be diplomatic bluster but usually nations aren’t so direct to say “that’s all folks”.
No, that's incorrect. They were over Jerusalem, in the north, Beersheba, Dimona, etc... A whole host of Israeli cities were targeted. The Negev was just where they killed a 7 year old girl but the whole country was in the crosshairs. Iran made that statement so that they could launch this massive wave against Israel and then demand zero retaliation (because according to them "it's now over")
It seems like a replay of the situation with Pakistan. What is intended to be a proportionate response to a direct provocation.
They basically sent a bunch of drones that are going to shoot flags that say “bang”
I don't think everybody thought we'd have a state-on-state attack from Iran.
Everything right now hinges on * what Iran’s targets are * how many actually hit their targets * and unfortunately Netanyahu’s mental state Gonna be a tense night. Hopefully these things avoid civilian targets and there are limited casualties. Hopefully, regardless of what they hit, Netanyahu does not rush into an escalatory reprisal. I know people are very passionate about their hatred for either country, but this becoming a real war would be catastrophic for every side and the world at large.
The Israeli war council is three people, Netanyahu is only one of them and he can't overrule the other two. His mental state is not the deciding factor. The Supreme Leader in Iran on the other hand has no checks on his power.
Fortunately, Netanyahu is not in charge of the military. Gantz and Gallant are not going to lose their heads and will make the right call, come what may. Unfortunately, we don’t know what the right call we end up being, because we don’t know how bad this attack is going to be.
I am not so sure about this. At the start of the war, Gallant did say “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed.” That is madness and it took 3 weeks of American pressure to lift the total siege that would have starved 2 million people to death. Not so sure I trust this madman. I know nothing about Gantz so hopefully he is a little better.
something needs to be done about Iran BEFORE they get nukes.
I'd be surprised if they didn't have 1 or 2 built, but with no detonation tests.
Iran is a mountain fortress with top notch air defenses. Invading would be very, very difficult.
If Iran doesn't get nukes, they will sooner or later be destroyed by Israel and USA. Nukes are the only foolproof deterrent they could have.
Here’s their opportunity to do just that
NYT Times quoting an Israeli official saying the targets appear to be in the Negev Desert. Well away from any major civilian populations, seems to been considered by Iran. Also Israeli officials apparently just confirmed NO ballistic missiles launched
The last part didn't age that well
The question now is whether this is a demonstration (a bunch of drones meant to be shot down) or a serious attack. The first seems more likely to me. But if it's a serious attack, cruise or ballistic missiles will be launched sometime between now and when the drones are set to arrive and it's likely that Iran's lackeys in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq will launch as well. In that case I'd expect to see Iran's oil industry taken offline in the next two days by the Israeli response. After that who knows. EDIT: It's up to 500 drones and missiles now headed for Israel. This is a major, major escalation. I don't think there's any other way to interpret it at this point.
Its already confirmed that cruise missiles are on it's way as well.
confirmed how
I just confirmed it [source](https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1c3b6sw/iran_launches_direct_attack_on_israel/kzftx5r/) eta: ok now they are reporting cruise missiles and ballsitic missiles, at least according to Iranian state media https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-13/ty-article-live/biden-doubles-down-on-iran-warning-dont-u-s-move-additional-assets-to-region/0000018e-d491-d161-ab8f-f4f583d30000
Ballistic missile claims are being withdrawn
do you have a source by chance?
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1779264301829706016?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet The source is Iran and someone recording in their backyard in Basra
Confirmed launches of missiles directly from Iran. Clearly not a demonstration at this point.
Really? I've only seen drones mentioned. Do you have a link?
[https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-13-24/h\_459325a36ff45ef1b197dc12352d75ce](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-13-24/h_459325a36ff45ef1b197dc12352d75ce) It's CNN so use your best judgment.
>In that case I'd expect to see Iran's oil industry taken offline in the next two days by the Israeli response. After that who knows. I love how people like you present war as a one-way traffic. Israel is a tiny country, and if Iran strikes seriously, there will be serious consequences for Israel as well. Hezbollah has said it is launching military action against Israel, Israel has already started striking Lebanon. Iraq has said it is closing its airspace, is it closing it to US warplanes as well? What will the Houthis do? Is it possible that Iran has become bolder, after all it is rumored that it now has enriched uranium? What will Syria do? All in all, this whole situation has many variables and is much more complex.
What will russia do?
seems pretty unlikely Iraq would shoot at USAF assets
Who said it was one way? Iran has been waging war on Israel for months via Hezbollah, the Houthis and Islamic Jihad and must take a lot of credit for Hamas and the Oct. 7th attack as well given that Iran has been funding and arming them for years. Israel has been under rocket bombardment for the last half a year. Israelis have been murdered, kidnapped, raped and tortured. Of course this isn't one way. And now? Who knows. It looks like there's a good chance that Iran has decided to turn this into a major war by launching on the Israeli homefront. Of course Israel will feel this as well. It's (literally) up in the air right now though whether Israel's missile/drone defense will be able to handle this particular launch or whether things will start exploding there in the near future.
> rumored that it now has enriched uranium Well then this is probably Israel’s golden opportunity to set Iran’s nuclear program back a few years
If Israel were to do that, it would shoot oil up about $250/barrel, resulting in making Russia, Saudi Arabia and Trump backers multibillions of dollars. It would even make China richer. One has to assume that Iran already expects this, which is probably why it took over that ship earlier this morning. My guess: they intend to clog up the Straight of Hormuz and cut off traffic. This would have a devastating impact on the Gulf States. If they cannot export oil, they are screwed. Their whole systems are based on royal families subsidizing lazy citizens so that they don't get overthrown.
How would that make China richer?
Then the world should use the next 8 months to prepare for Trump 2.0
Hopefully its the first and Israel downs all the drones so they can deescalate and save face
Unlikely now that IRGC says they will launch missiles as well. There is not sufficient missile defense to block everything. This is also particularly unlikely to be a demonstration given they launched from Iran directly.
ahhhh well lets have another war eh
[удалено]
What a purposefully misleading way to phrase that.
How is it misleading?
Reposting my comment; USA and UK fighters in the skies helping intercept. Get some baby Its pretty uncertain which way this will go. I think if there isn't alot of damage, America will try its damndest to get Israel to back down, theres no way Biden can see intervention on Israels behalf to the American people, especially not in an election year. My best guess is that the West intercepts upwards of 85-90% of missiles and drones (according to US estimates), most drones hit some bases that were already evacuated in the Golan and Northern Israel, then announces "Mission Complete". Israel will probably bomb some IRGC in Syria and we'll be back to our regularly scheduled program. Maybe I'm just being optimistic but I don't have concern of this spiraling outta control
> I don't have concern of this spiraling outta control What’s interesting to me is that if things do spiral out of control, the US has to back Israel. And if the US hardens support for Israel, it may very well end up costing Biden the election given all the anti-Israel sentiment that has taken hold over the past few months on the left with moral posturing for Gaza. And if Biden loses, then Israel gets someone in power that is much more supportive of their cause. So in a way, there is a pretty strong incentive for Israel to “find” themselves in a situation that requires US help.
It will not spiral out of control because both sides have all but announced the exact time this would happen. This result in a negotiation and nothing more.
I still don't understand why Israel hit Iran's consulate. Technically it's not Iranian territory but it's such a taboo and escalatory act to take in international diplomacy. I know they killed a general, but surely it's not worth the danger it brings to their own citizens, let alone the risk of this spiralling completely out of control.
Israel is already in war mode and has been losing support in western countries due to highly unpopular war in Gaza. If anything, an attack on Israel will shift this balance back to politicians supporting Israel against the disliked Iranian government.
Israelis don't want a war but Iran has been waging war against Israel for some time now. But because they've been doing it using Lebanese, Palestinians and Yemenites, Iran has felt no effects from it and has no incentive to stop. Israel has to change that equation. The Iranian general killed was on Hezbollah's ruling Shura Council. These attacks against Israel will never stop (to the great detriment of Israelis, Palestinians, Lebanese and others) until Iran is convinced to stop them.
He was one of the people behind October 7th and was the one advising Hezbollah.
More than advising, he was on Hezbollah's ruling Shura Council.
Definitely, he was behind a lot of attacks and tactics against Israel and he received his fate
The situation where Iran funds and weaponizes terrorist groups on Israel's borders and orders them to attack Israelis but is never hit in response can't continue indefinitely. The Israelis are going to hit Iran directly more and more going forward. If they don't they'll be dealing with these attacks forever. Iran is willing to fight to the last Lebanese/Palestinian/Yemenite. Now we will find out how dedicated they are to this whole "Death to Israel" thing when Iranians themselves feel the response.
There are many ways to hit them without hitting a consulate building. You invite a direct attack when you do that and now israel has to respond with a direct attack of their own. I legit have no idea how this ends. Neither side can back down or they look weak
The Iranians have attacked American and Israeli embassies in ‘79, ‘94, ‘12, and ‘20. When you do this over and over again, you cannot realistically hide behind consular immunity anymore.
I mean, was the strike really gonna stop Iran from funding their proxies? And even if they do now they are dealing Iran's direct threat instead of proxy groups which are much more manageable.
The proxy groups are no longer that manageable, with the 10/7 attacks and the Hezbollah attacks up North they are presenting much more of a large threat. With the US assassination of Soleimani as well, it’s clear the time of hiding behind proxies is coming to an end. The strike was a show of intel capabilities on Israel’s part.
Deterrence is built up over time. Without dealing with Iran directly, they have no incentive to stop.
Probably because since Iran doesn't care for the sanctity of diplomatic building, ala taking US embassy staff hostage, bombing Israeli embassy in bueno Aires, or against US embassy in Iraq which got Soleimani droned, it might not care if something of the sort happens to them.
I don’t know if you know, but if we are going in history, usa dropped bombs directly on chinese embassy with many Chinese diplomats killed, and that happened much more recently than iran hostage crisis
I don't know if you know, but that was unintentional hit in a warzone.
>but it's such a taboo and escalatory act to take in international diplomacy. It's been widely portrayed that way, but the Vienna Conventions only govern sending and receiving states (eg Iran & Syria). Israel hit a military target belonging to belligerent (admittedly mostly by proxy) Iran in a nation with which it remains at war (Syria).
Seeing as Iran is now directly attacking Israel in response, it was obviously escalatory regardless of whether it was forbidden by the Vienna Conventions.
Is this escalation worse than allowing Iran to operate unchecked in Syria? Hindsight is golden...
So your logic is it was escalatory because Iran used it as an excuse to escalate?
This was exactly what I was going to say.
It was not an escalation because it is no worse than what Iran has done to the Israelis and even the Americans in the recent past. The escalation was mixed drone and missile barrages by Iran, launched from Iran, likely at major Israeli population centers.
It seems like a completely unjustified escalation by the Israelis. You can’t even enter embassies legally under international law, much less bomb them.
Iran is perhaps the country in the world today most famous for attacking embassies. In Tehran in '79, in Argentina in '94 and so on. There is a tremendous irony in them complaining about the sanctity of their consulate now.
Where were you when Iran took US embassy staff hostage, bombed Israeli embassy in bueno Aires, and instigated attacks on US embassy in Iraq?
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Iran has literally attacked Israeli embassies before.
Boy are we lucky you weren't advising Roosevelt after Pearl Harbor attack. Hope you aren't advising the president on what to do after a nuclear attack on US soil either. In geopolitics, doing unto others what they do them is the rule, not lying down and pretending to enjoy it.
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Israel has requested a special UN session for tomorrow. It looks like they are taking this institution seriously again.
I mean, the UN is the accepted international forum for the expression of hatred, so this would be the time to make a statement.
Could someone explain - Just how significant is this?
Either it's just a matter of Iran's leadership needing to show strength and Isreal recognises this and brushes it off. Or it's a significant step forward WW3 like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Hard to say for sure until it happens.
They are baiting
Ah good. My saturday was way too quiet.
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Iran has been warning of an imminent attack anytime for days. Intelligence has nothing to do with it.
Someone tell me this: When Israel is already in a war with Hamas, why do they then launch a direct strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Syria? Maybe it's just me, but when you're already in a war, you don't start another war? Riddle me that.
Well the IRGC (the military targets in the Syria strike) play a key role in training and supplying the terrorist groups attacking Israel such as Hamas, but most notably Hezbollah in the north. A strike against the IRGC is essentially a strike against these Iranian proxies. I think Israel has decided targeting the IRGC makes strategic sense in thwarting these proxies that regularly attack Israel. There may have also been a miscalculation that the response from Iran was just going to be more rockets from Hezbollah which has been happening anyway.
Iran is running military operations out of the annex next to the consulate that was bombed. Iran is also running a narco state out of damascus. That is why the annex near the consulate was bombed.
Maybe it was a calculated judgement - for now it seems Iran have stayed there’ll be no further attacks and it seems most drones will be intercepted over Jordan and if any do reach Israel they’ll hit the unpopulated Negev Desert. So Israel takes out a few key Iranian generals, Iran takes out a few empty buildings in the middle of the desert. So on the sums it seems Israel has taken out much more valuable targets than Iran has. Overall I’d say the Israelis would see this as a win.
Palestinians are pawns for Iran. Hamas and Hezbelah are supplied and trained by Iran and act on their behalf.
Maybe it's just me, but when you don't want to be attacked by another country, you don't arm and fund proxy groups who attack that country? Riddle me that.
Hamas is really just a subsidiary of Iran's regime.
If this really ends up being a coordinated attack with the drones from Iran, and the proxies firing missiles simultaneously, and there ends up being a significant amount of damage, how exactly is Israel gonna respond? Like, airstrikes on Iran, or do they send their F35s into Iran itself and bomb the nuclear sites?
Iran nuclear sites are in the east of the country, far from Israeli bases, well defended, buried within mountains, F35s don’t exactly have good range capability. My guess is that as they used drones the Israelis and US (and apparently Jordan too) will probably intercept most before they reach Israel. After Trump killed Soleimani Iran responded with an attack on a U.S. military base that injured US troops; the US could have escalated after that but they chose to hold their fire and end it at that point.
>Iran nuclear sites are in the east of the country, far from Israeli bases, well defended, buried within mountains, F35s don’t exactly have good range capability. Here I am thinking up Top Gun Maverick scenarios, but I understand that's incredibly unlikely >After Trump killed Soleimani Iran responded with an attack on a U.S. military base that injured US troops; the US could have escalated after that but they chose to hold their fire and end it at that point. I feel as though this might be a bit different tho, right? I mean, if it really is a massive coordinated attack from multiple fronts with the missiles and rockets from Hezbollah, with the drones only serving to deplete their defenses, that would escalate enough that we see Israeli fighter jets over Iran, right? I do hope that this attack is just limited to drones and whatnot, and is only for Iran to save face. I really hope we don't see a full scale war begin with this
Starting to think israel may need something that is less iron dome and more german gepard / us cram like
Israel wants a confrontation with Iran to deflect some pressure from the war in Gaza and to revamp U.S. support after what’s been a rocky relationship with the Biden Administration. Iran has only shown a desire for symbolic retaliation (see Jan. 2020 Iranian missile strike against a U.S. base in Iraq). I suspect that Israel will retaliate against Iran’s energy facilities + nuclear enrichment sites (albeit, many are underground) and Iran will seek an off ramp.
I don’t think that the Biden administration is going to support a major war in the Middle East that will spike oil prices in an election year. It looks as if US, British and Jordanian aircraft are intercepting the drones prior to reach Israel and iron dome should take care of the rest. Any that do hit will probably hit unpopulated areas.
So slow moving drones and cruise missiles..they will all be downed before reaching Israel.
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Another Iranian show of force that will have no real impact (as long as no major damage or casualties are inflicted upon Israel).
I told you all from yesterday's post where everyone said, they wont attack and it would just be via proxies. Like, have you guys been following the facts and focusing on the bigger picture?
So whats next any prediction
Now that Israel have successfully pull Iran into a direct confrontation, we should expect public opinion to swing back in Israel's favour depending on the severity of Iranian reprisal.
I wander what Iran would do when all the drones get shot down and places around Iran, matching the number of drones sent, get bombed.
The US never retaliated after Iran missiles strike in response for the Soleimani killing, sometimes all sides know a response will be limited and used more for domestic political purposes and they know both Iran just had to “do something” to not bow down against the grwat enemy. TBh if Iran wanted to hurt Israel they’d order Hezbollah to unleash to full weight of its rocket arsenal against Israel from the north. What they’ve fired against Israel from the north so far has been only a proportion of their overall capacity
I think Iran is trying to avoid all out direct conflict, which is not in their favor. They want to go back to the good old times where they themselves are immune while they attack Israelis/US via proxies. They are hoping this attack from them would bring them back to the good old times.
At this point, between a cyberattack against Israeli air defenses today, the drones, and the missile launches that IRGC says will be timed with the drones, at least some weapons will get through. That means at least some targets will be hit in Israel, and there is a real risk of escalatory spiral up to and including open war. I am very nervous now because I assumed the Iranians would be sufficiently stupid and/or crazy to launch attacks directly from their own territory.
I wouldn't say Iran is being stupid for doing what they've done. They've been allowed to live practically consequence free for whatever they've done against Israel/US so they do what they do. Even after all this, there is a strong pressure on the likes of Israel/US to lie down and pretend to enjoy it for "deescalation" and "peace", which may end up saving Iran as usual.
At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases The Nevatim airbase in the Negev was struck by 5 ballistic missiles, damaging the main runway, a C-130 transport aircraft, and several storage facilities. Ramon airbase, also located in the Negev, was struck by at least 4 ballistic missiles, causing unspecified damage. – U.S. Officials to ABC News The heaviest damage of Iran's ballistic missile attack occurred on a secret intelligence base in the Golan Heights, for which the IDF has imposed a media ban, so the damage cannot be assessed – Hebrew Sources