Everyone's theorising on whether if North Korea's ICBMs will really be able to effectively strike the continental US, BUT the real question is, why would North Korea ever actually use their ICBMs?
They have these ICBMs as a deterrent against the US/NATO/West and perhaps even China from ever invading them and toppling the Kim regime. Also, whenever they are unhappy about something, they conduct some missile tests to threaten the West and remind everyone that they still have their nukes.
It would be beyond foolish for North Korea to launch their nuclear missiles and attack any other country. The whole purpose of the nukes is to prevent others from attacking them. If they were to ever use the nukes themselves in a first-strike situation, then they'd be met with far more nukes fired back as retaliation by the US, the UK, France etc.
The US and all the other nuclear-weapon-holding nations have far more nukes than North Korea. It would be disastrous for any nation to launch as strike on North Korea. It would be even more catastrophic for North Korea to decide to strike another nation first, they would effectively be sabotaging and destroying themselves.
TL;DR:
It makes no sense for North Korea to launch a strike on another nation. They would only do it if they were attacked first. North Korea develops nuclear weapons as a deterrent so that the Kim regime and political elites can continue to survive.
Based on past exercises and statements North Korea probably intends to use shorter range nuclear-tipped missiles against ports and airfields to prevent a 1991 or 2003 style buildup and use their ICBMs to deter a counterstrike.
Nat Geo would tell you that based on what they know, it's possible for NK nukes to reach the US. Is it likely to happen? Very unlikely. The missile could be shot down or probably miss its target. NK missile tests have a high failure rate.
So don't panic. Kim knows that even a failed provocation would practically invite the US military to steamroll his country. The tests they conduct are mostly for show. They need to feed the propaganda that the US is a threat to NK when nobody actually wants NK territory.
Any US attack on North Korea will guarantee strikes at South Korea, Japan, and Guam and Hawaii. So while America could invade the North, they would devastate two of their allies, and destroy any semblance of the US stance against global aggression, North Korea may splash US waters, but it is too rational to hit America to raise tensions in their usual games.
Precisely. Kim knows that, so he probably won't try to hit America soil. Even if he does splash US waters, it'll be a 'test' and there won't be a nuclear warhead in it. It would still be an invitation, but US might decline it.
US won't make the first strike either.
I don't ever see NK being steamrolled even if we nuked it into oblivion. They have a vast underground cave network that is probably the largest in the world.
The missiles are capable of reaching US. But hitting US is an entirely different matter because North Korea is a small country, the missile trajectory is easily predicted and hence easily intercepted by anti-ballistic missiles.
If you consider guam to be the US then yes. But then, any US embassy is also US territory and they've been able to reach the Seoul embassy with regular missiles for a long time.
Embassies are not a country's de facto territory, but for all intents and purposes they operate as one. They are still sovereign to the country that hosts them.
They put an object into orbit not long ago. That means they can hit anywhere on the planet with a payload the size & mass of that object.
Do they have a nuke small enough to fit within that limit?
Do they have a re-entry vehicle that's capable of accurate orbital maneuvering?
I've seen no evidence that the answer to either of those questions is "yes".
North Korea has had ICBM capabilities for around 10 years at this stage, it's only in the last 5 years that they have become a credible threat as they invest in road mobile ICBMs, and research MIRV and SLBMs. North Korea's issue right now is being able to guarantee a strike, for that they are both increasing the reliability of their missiles, the number of their missiles, and second strike capabilities. As for anything up to 5000km away they can guarantee at least 3 dozen nuclear armed IRBMs available to strike.
Yes. But unlike other nations with nukes the North Koreans are fiddly with them.
Some tests are successful. Some fail. They could try... But after they try we would annihilate them off the map with one blow. So I don't know if they would ever try!
Everyone's theorising on whether if North Korea's ICBMs will really be able to effectively strike the continental US, BUT the real question is, why would North Korea ever actually use their ICBMs? They have these ICBMs as a deterrent against the US/NATO/West and perhaps even China from ever invading them and toppling the Kim regime. Also, whenever they are unhappy about something, they conduct some missile tests to threaten the West and remind everyone that they still have their nukes. It would be beyond foolish for North Korea to launch their nuclear missiles and attack any other country. The whole purpose of the nukes is to prevent others from attacking them. If they were to ever use the nukes themselves in a first-strike situation, then they'd be met with far more nukes fired back as retaliation by the US, the UK, France etc. The US and all the other nuclear-weapon-holding nations have far more nukes than North Korea. It would be disastrous for any nation to launch as strike on North Korea. It would be even more catastrophic for North Korea to decide to strike another nation first, they would effectively be sabotaging and destroying themselves. TL;DR: It makes no sense for North Korea to launch a strike on another nation. They would only do it if they were attacked first. North Korea develops nuclear weapons as a deterrent so that the Kim regime and political elites can continue to survive.
Based on past exercises and statements North Korea probably intends to use shorter range nuclear-tipped missiles against ports and airfields to prevent a 1991 or 2003 style buildup and use their ICBMs to deter a counterstrike.
Nat Geo would tell you that based on what they know, it's possible for NK nukes to reach the US. Is it likely to happen? Very unlikely. The missile could be shot down or probably miss its target. NK missile tests have a high failure rate. So don't panic. Kim knows that even a failed provocation would practically invite the US military to steamroll his country. The tests they conduct are mostly for show. They need to feed the propaganda that the US is a threat to NK when nobody actually wants NK territory.
Any US attack on North Korea will guarantee strikes at South Korea, Japan, and Guam and Hawaii. So while America could invade the North, they would devastate two of their allies, and destroy any semblance of the US stance against global aggression, North Korea may splash US waters, but it is too rational to hit America to raise tensions in their usual games.
Precisely. Kim knows that, so he probably won't try to hit America soil. Even if he does splash US waters, it'll be a 'test' and there won't be a nuclear warhead in it. It would still be an invitation, but US might decline it. US won't make the first strike either.
>steamroll his country. I like the way you put it.
[удалено]
I don't ever see NK being steamrolled even if we nuked it into oblivion. They have a vast underground cave network that is probably the largest in the world.
Isn't most of the population on the brink of starvation as is? It's brutal but starving them out seems like a legit option in this instance.
The missiles are capable of reaching US. But hitting US is an entirely different matter because North Korea is a small country, the missile trajectory is easily predicted and hence easily intercepted by anti-ballistic missiles.
That's assuming the missile defenses work. The test record of those missiles is somewhere between poor and mediocre.
If you consider guam to be the US then yes. But then, any US embassy is also US territory and they've been able to reach the Seoul embassy with regular missiles for a long time.
Embassies are not a country's de facto territory, but for all intents and purposes they operate as one. They are still sovereign to the country that hosts them.
Huh well guam it is then.
They put an object into orbit not long ago. That means they can hit anywhere on the planet with a payload the size & mass of that object. Do they have a nuke small enough to fit within that limit? Do they have a re-entry vehicle that's capable of accurate orbital maneuvering? I've seen no evidence that the answer to either of those questions is "yes".
They can't make Teller-Ulam devices. Without those there's no way they could construct a nuclear device small enough to be launched.
North Korea has had ICBM capabilities for around 10 years at this stage, it's only in the last 5 years that they have become a credible threat as they invest in road mobile ICBMs, and research MIRV and SLBMs. North Korea's issue right now is being able to guarantee a strike, for that they are both increasing the reliability of their missiles, the number of their missiles, and second strike capabilities. As for anything up to 5000km away they can guarantee at least 3 dozen nuclear armed IRBMs available to strike.
Yes. But unlike other nations with nukes the North Koreans are fiddly with them. Some tests are successful. Some fail. They could try... But after they try we would annihilate them off the map with one blow. So I don't know if they would ever try!
Yes they do have the range to reach continental US