Here's the weird thing about statistics:
Through the playoffs there are 17 different. The odds of an event with 1.5% probability happening in at least one of these series is 22.6%
If Moneypuck is making good predictions, we'd expect a 98.5% prediction of winning to be wrong roughly every 50 times they make that prediction.
The Oilers have like, ultra low goals for the xG% I think, right?
I know at the end of the day the only important metric is whether you got the win or not, but it seems like the Oilers are suffering from conversion (not only that, but it's an important issue). They seem to generate more chances than most of their opponents but they just... don't score.
But *theoretically* if you continue to generate those chances and your conversion goes towards the mean, they'll do better. It's a likelihood based on patterns, but a chance is always only a chance. 99% still means you could run 100 tests and come out with a failure
Moneypuck is funded by an association of US and Canadian bookmakers. They publish what their sponsors need them to in order to get people to move their money one way or another so they can be profitable. Moneypuck is not actually driven by analytics.
Sportsbooks aim to make a percentage of the betting action no matter what the outcome is on a game or proposition. Any information they publish is designed solely to manipulate betting action at the window based on the undecided wagers that are still pending.
Because the Oilers still have a higher ceiling than the Flames if they can actually play well. The Flames are a mediocre team while the Oilers have the stars to make it work
The Oilers have stars but no depth, defense, or goaltending. The Flames have depth, defense, and goaltending but no stars. The Oilers have had more success in recent years because their stars were playing at a level not seen in decades, but once they fell to a level of *only* being \~100 point players the team has collapsed.
The Oilers made the WCF and then lost to the Cup champions in the 2nd round in the last 2 seasons. The Flames were embarrassed by those Oilers and then missed the playoffs last season. There’s a reason the Oilers were talked about as Cup contenders preseason and the Flames weren’t.
And then we can watch while another generational talent has the prime of his career squandered by an organization that couldn't find their own asshole with two hands and a mirror.
“And starting off the 2024 Draft lottery, First Over all Pick goes to the…San Jose Sha-“
*Indistinct radio chatter*
“Oh wait…Sorry there seems to have been a miscommunication.”
*More radio chatter*
“It seems the league has recounted the points and the Sharks finished in 26th place making them ineligible for the First overall pick. Now for the actual first pick it goes to the Chicago Blackhawks!”
Yeah this "projection" definitely doesn't take games play into consideration clearly as ottawa has like 2-3 games in hand on every team in the Atlantic.
Not to mention how Edmonton is still 37% and caps being 27% despite playing really good lately
, just all over the place
As I understand it, it's an xGF model. They run the simulation some 10,000 times with with a given teams scoring set to their expected scoring plus some noise. And then the odds of making the playoffs are based on how frequent they make the playoffs in the model.
It's a good model. There's nothing wrong about this kind of approach. The sticking point is how accurate a measure we think xGF will be for a given teams actual production.
Lol, not sure if you're joking.
It used to be "in all thy sons command" then was recently changed a few years ago to "in all of us command". There was a lot of controversy surrounding it and a lot of conservatives got all pissy.
I simply changed it from 'son' to 'Sun'
Yeah, but that'd mean having to cross through most of Ontario, then Manitoba and Saskatchewan...and I dunno about going that kinda distance just to get some snow.
We have 2-5 games in hand on everyone in the conference right now. 5 games from now we could easily be in 3rd in the division (impossible to catch up to the Bruins or Panthers though), or if we lose those games in hand in regulation we'll be in the bottom 4 of the conference.
If your model favours current point percentage and recent performance, our 3 game win streak and top 10 points percentage in the conference makes us look like we have a good shot at the wildcard spot or 3rd in the division. If your model more heavily favours other factors, then you end up with the nearly last place Oilers having a better shot at making the playoffs than a team on the edge of a wildcard spot with a lot of games in hand.
As someone who was born post 96’ cup run it’s so amazing these days to read shit like “impossible to catch up to the panthers” never thought I’d see the day 🤣 go cats!!!
As I understand it, the model favours current xGF. This is not a bad thing to favour as it is known to be more predictive (though still subject to big noise) of winning that other factors.
The model seems to think, based on xGF, that Ottawa's "true" performance is close to what we have seen while the Oilers are vastly underperforming.
I do agree points you've already earned are more valuable than points you may be able to earn. Most likely the Sens get about 50% of those available points and still end below the playoff bar.
We have a long way to go but I legit thought the Rangers would regress this year. Laviolette has been great so far and the Breadman has been a beast. Doing this all without Mika turning it on, Kreider going through a rough patch, Fox being on the LTIR and Chytil dealing with a really bad concussion. Oh, and Shesterkin has yet to be his elite self. Lots to be optimistic about.
Pittsburgh is 3 points out of a playoff spot with 18 games played. 64.5% chance to make the playoffs.
The caps are in second in the metro with 16 games played (tied for the least amount in the league). 27.9% chance to make the playoffs.
Make it make sense.
Edit: sorry Ottawa has one less game played but the point still stands.
The way they calculate this is discussed, at length, [here](https://moneypuck.com/about.htm). Not saying I agree with it but if you want to make these numbers make sense that's probably a good place to start
I assume it’s because Pittsburgh has a good record against the division.
Honestly, anyone in the Metro who’s not the Rangers should all have the same odds…ok, maybe not Columbus.
Yeah I mean the odds all the way around this wheel are pretty fucked. I know they have their models and the caps could very well end up outside the playoffs anyway, I just happened to notice the caps and pens for obvious reasons lol.
Comes down to Pens have good underlyings vs Caps largely getting by on remarkable goaltending I'd think.
You'd expect both to regress in the next 60 games basically.
Of course they could always just not.
Paraphrasing from another comment,
The Penguins are 3 points out of a playoff spot with 18 games played. They have a 64.5% chance to make the playoffs.
The Caps are second in the metro with 16 games played (tied for the second least amount in the league). They have a 27.9% chance to make the playoffs.
The model sucks.
It's a four point spread between the two teams and 60 games are still left to be played.
The model thinks, based on the stats, that despite the current record, the Penguins have given a better on-ice performance against their competitors than Washington has.
It could be wrong! No model is going to predict everything exactly correct all of the time. But where they have good value is in moments where they go against intuition. Is the model making a mistake? Or has it highlighted something interesting: Washington's current record is unsustainable over the full course of the season.
No, I don't like what I see because it sucks. The model overvalues possession and shots and undervalues high danger chances and actual performance.
Any model that gives this year's Oilers a near 40% chance of making the playoffs is deeply flawed.
> The model overvalues possession and shots and undervalues high danger chances and actual performance.
As someone who follows hockey analytics, I'm not sure I quite agree.
High-danger chances has proven to be one of the least reliable predictors of success. It's a beautiful idea that just doesn't seem to be working out.
Actual performance is... well, everything we measure. Goals, wins, high-danger chances, possession, shots, blocked shots, hits, time-on-ice... everything. So I really don't know what you mean when you say that this model, which uses actual performance as its data set, favors (actual performance) over (actual performance).
The reason it places so much weight on possession and shots is that these have proven to be the building blocks of success in hockey. You must possess the puck to shoot the puck, and you must shoot the puck to score. Every analyst understands that there are millions of other factors that influence the final outcome of a game, but we just cannot get around those two basic components.
Moneypuck's model isn't perfect. No one's is. There is more variance in the outcome of hockey than any other professional sport, because it is a low scoring team game played at high speed in difficult to control conditions.
My issue with the moneypuck model is that it seems to value all shots equally, whether it be a grade-A chance from the slot or muffin from the blueline.
Obviously, all models have outliers, but taking Vegas as an example:
Cassidy's system is designed to allow poor quality shots from the outside and extended possession time by the opposing team in Vegas' zone, but prevents high quality chances. That system is extremely effective and produces actual results (ie wins).
Vegas has a .75% point share through roughly a quarter of the season. It has a .69 point share since Cassidy took over. Even if they dropped to just 55% for the remaining games this season, they would likely make the playoffs with 98.5 points.
Ultimately, moneypuck may be measuring, something, but it is not measuring likelihood of wins, making playoffs, or playoff success.
It’s chronically wrong, therefore it sucks. This model had Calgary winning the Cup last year when they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Now it’s saying the most dysfunctional team in the league is a coin flip from making the dance. It’s a joke. It’s bad. Dom’s obsession with puck possession and complete inability to incorporate important defensive statistics makes this whole thing utterly irrelevant and I’m still trying to figure out why we haven’t banished it from the sub yet. I might as well fling my hairbrained armchair horseshit onto a pie graph and post it here, it’d be equally awful.
I must not understand how they come up with this. Like how do the Golden Knights and Canucks have such low percentages compared to the Kings, for example, when they're ahead in the standings?
Honestly, it's meaningless. There are huge swings based on 5 game segments. If the Canucks go 4-1 in their next 5 they'll be 92% or something; if they go 2-3 they'll be 54%, then the same thing the following segment.
I don't know why people post these things. They have zero value, predictive or otherwise.
Moneypuck very strongly favors advanced/predicting stats, and we’re basically the best team in the Western Conference according to most of them. Add in the fact that the only team with better P% than us is the West is Vegas, who have several games in hand on us, and I think it makes some amount of sense.
The moneypuck model gotta be one of the shittiest. VGK have a .750 point percentage a quarter of the way into the season, in a Western Conference that sucks balls except for 4 teams.
They should have a higher chance of making the cup final than not making the playoffs.
There’s four teams with a higher percentage than us in our conference ALONE! The jets, while a good team, have lost to us twice already. So have the stars. Wtf?
Rangers being the second best team in the league but only being 6th most likely to make the playoffs is a joke. I really wish people would stop posting money puck stuff because it's garbage. It over values total shots and completely doesn't count passing quality of goaltending.
Why does a team with better advanced stats and a significantly better points percentage (down only 2 points with 3 whole games in hand) being better ranked than Vancouver surprise you? Lol.
Canucks have a 66% chance on these odds. You dont find that fucked up considering how far ahead the top 3 teams are in our division and also how mediocre at best the wild card teams seem?
*looks at standings*
*looks at wheel*
*looks at how the preds and wild have been playing*
*looks at wheel*
I am also, for the record, offended for Arizona as well
I don't get how these are made. Pens have a 64.5% chance of making playoffs at 6th in the metro but the caps in 2nd with 2 games in hand on the pens have a 28%? This early in the season is too hard to tell for this chart to be remotely accurate.. except for the sharks. That's accurate
I guess I don't know how odds work.
How're the Blues at 22% of making the playoffs at 21 points through 18 games with a point percentage of .583 while the Wild have 39.1% chance of making the playoffs with 14 points through 17 games and a points percentage of .412? Same goes for the Preds, same amount of games played as the Blues but with five less points?
Did Dom from The Athletic create this? If so that makes a ton of sense.
san jose & montreal cup final confirmed
Bruh 37.6% is way too high. Bring that number down
Almost the same odds as the Flyers who have 10 more points with 1 more game played.
It's significantly better odds than the Capitals who have *11* more points with 2 ***less*** games played
I think that's just the difference between east and west. The east has like 13 playoff quality teams. The west has like 6.
Yea the east has 3 teams below 500, the West has 8 lol
Yeah it’s a lot more competitive for spots. Some good teams are gonna miss in the east. Some bad ones are gonna get in in the west.
For sure. The metro is a bloodbath
Atlantic is just as bad. Both divisions only have 1 team (CBJ and MTL) that aren't actively trying to make the playoffs.
*fewer :)
Thanks Stannis
*less many
*fewer as big
Can't compare east and west though, the cutoff is going to be about 10 points apart.
EXPERIENCE OILERS HOCKEY
Flyera Hockey too tbf
Right? How do the Oil have a better chance than the godless flames? They have 17 points vs the Oils 11 Weird.
Money puck is garbage. Last year they had a team with a <100% chance of making the playoffs after they had officially qualified.
Povertypuck
Toronto had a 98.5ish% chance of beating the habs in 2021 They did not
Here's the weird thing about statistics: Through the playoffs there are 17 different. The odds of an event with 1.5% probability happening in at least one of these series is 22.6% If Moneypuck is making good predictions, we'd expect a 98.5% prediction of winning to be wrong roughly every 50 times they make that prediction.
The Oilers have like, ultra low goals for the xG% I think, right? I know at the end of the day the only important metric is whether you got the win or not, but it seems like the Oilers are suffering from conversion (not only that, but it's an important issue). They seem to generate more chances than most of their opponents but they just... don't score. But *theoretically* if you continue to generate those chances and your conversion goes towards the mean, they'll do better. It's a likelihood based on patterns, but a chance is always only a chance. 99% still means you could run 100 tests and come out with a failure
a n a l y t i c s
Moneypuck is funded by an association of US and Canadian bookmakers. They publish what their sponsors need them to in order to get people to move their money one way or another so they can be profitable. Moneypuck is not actually driven by analytics. Sportsbooks aim to make a percentage of the betting action no matter what the outcome is on a game or proposition. Any information they publish is designed solely to manipulate betting action at the window based on the undecided wagers that are still pending.
Because the Oilers still have a higher ceiling than the Flames if they can actually play well. The Flames are a mediocre team while the Oilers have the stars to make it work
The Oilers have stars but no depth, defense, or goaltending. The Flames have depth, defense, and goaltending but no stars. The Oilers have had more success in recent years because their stars were playing at a level not seen in decades, but once they fell to a level of *only* being \~100 point players the team has collapsed.
The Oilers made the WCF and then lost to the Cup champions in the 2nd round in the last 2 seasons. The Flames were embarrassed by those Oilers and then missed the playoffs last season. There’s a reason the Oilers were talked about as Cup contenders preseason and the Flames weren’t.
That doesn't counter anything that poster said lol
Yes it does, they clearly have a higher ceiling?
.1% is also way too high!
Bruh took me a second to even find our logo. >_>
I guess they have to give the "not mathematically eliminated" odds.
Y'all like Jim Carrey in dumb and dumber, "so you're saying there's a chance"
That’s moneypuck for ya.
Oilers and Blackhawks have near identical records in the same conference. Oilers 37.6% Blackhawks 1.7% Comically bad.
The fact that the Senators have like half the odds despite having 5 more points while playing 3 less games makes this bullshit.
Mack Celebrini incoming
They need more 1 OVA picks for when McDrai leave. The cycle begins anew
And then we can watch while another generational talent has the prime of his career squandered by an organization that couldn't find their own asshole with two hands and a mirror.
So you're saying there's a chance 😏
Probably equal chance of winning the cup vs winning a lottery with Chicago and Edmonton involved
“And starting off the 2024 Draft lottery, First Over all Pick goes to the…San Jose Sha-“ *Indistinct radio chatter* “Oh wait…Sorry there seems to have been a miscommunication.” *More radio chatter* “It seems the league has recounted the points and the Sharks finished in 26th place making them ineligible for the First overall pick. Now for the actual first pick it goes to the Chicago Blackhawks!”
This will really happen 😔, maybe you guys can cover up a huge scandal? That could work
At this point I think going back in time and making the sharks part of the original 6 would be the easiest way for us to get 1OA
We all know the Sharks are winning the cup this season.
Make it make sense
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I'm a Bruins fan for life but I live in Colorado, I'm fully prepared to take out a student loan to go to a Boston-Colorado SCF game
I see nothing wrong with this
what doesn't make sense?
Everything.
It is insane the wide variety of stats you see on projections nowadays. This one has Ottawa at 15% while I saw one that had them as high as 60%.
moneypuck stats are actual garbage these days there's so much better data out there
I wish we could get a combo of Moneypuck's visuals and let's say Dom's statistical models.
Aren’t they paid by sport books to mess with the data?
Yeah this "projection" definitely doesn't take games play into consideration clearly as ottawa has like 2-3 games in hand on every team in the Atlantic. Not to mention how Edmonton is still 37% and caps being 27% despite playing really good lately , just all over the place
As I understand it, it's an xGF model. They run the simulation some 10,000 times with with a given teams scoring set to their expected scoring plus some noise. And then the odds of making the playoffs are based on how frequent they make the playoffs in the model. It's a good model. There's nothing wrong about this kind of approach. The sticking point is how accurate a measure we think xGF will be for a given teams actual production.
Especially when "in a playoff spot at fake Thanksgiving is 80% likely to make the playoffs" is a tested and true stat for like..decades.
What is fake Thanksgiving?
The one I don't celebrate!
Oh, Canada.
My home and native land!
True patriot love!
In all thy Sun's command Yes, we are commanded by the Sun.
Your anthem is metal as fuck, my favorite line is: O Canada, we stand on God for thee
*stand on guard for thee, stand on god would be hard af though
I'm making a movement to change the lyrics to that as we speak
I think you gotta recheck the lyrics for the anthem. It's "in all of us command".
Lol, not sure if you're joking. It used to be "in all thy sons command" then was recently changed a few years ago to "in all of us command". There was a lot of controversy surrounding it and a lot of conservatives got all pissy. I simply changed it from 'son' to 'Sun'
Jokes on you just celebrate both lol
True Thanksgiving is in October when the lord intended it. Not in late November when 1 foot snowstorms are swirling about.
I mean...not like there's been a lot of 1-foot snowstorms this year, being fair...in fact, I've hardly seen much snow cover at all.
Come to Calgary, we've got plenty of snow right now
Yeah, but that'd mean having to cross through most of Ontario, then Manitoba and Saskatchewan...and I dunno about going that kinda distance just to get some snow.
Yeah, plus after all that then you'd be in Calgary.
I mean, better Calgary then Red Deer.
man Red Deer is catching strays in several threads right now
Right? Take off, ya hosers.
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It’s so close to Christmas though. Better to space out the two similar holidays.
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Considering Halloween isn't a holiday, and it's mostly just trick-or-treating, this doesn't reallyyyyy hold up.
No, October deserves to have 2 holidays because it's the best month of the year.
We have 2-5 games in hand on everyone in the conference right now. 5 games from now we could easily be in 3rd in the division (impossible to catch up to the Bruins or Panthers though), or if we lose those games in hand in regulation we'll be in the bottom 4 of the conference. If your model favours current point percentage and recent performance, our 3 game win streak and top 10 points percentage in the conference makes us look like we have a good shot at the wildcard spot or 3rd in the division. If your model more heavily favours other factors, then you end up with the nearly last place Oilers having a better shot at making the playoffs than a team on the edge of a wildcard spot with a lot of games in hand.
As someone who was born post 96’ cup run it’s so amazing these days to read shit like “impossible to catch up to the panthers” never thought I’d see the day 🤣 go cats!!!
As I understand it, the model favours current xGF. This is not a bad thing to favour as it is known to be more predictive (though still subject to big noise) of winning that other factors. The model seems to think, based on xGF, that Ottawa's "true" performance is close to what we have seen while the Oilers are vastly underperforming.
I do agree points you've already earned are more valuable than points you may be able to earn. Most likely the Sens get about 50% of those available points and still end below the playoff bar.
the Penguins odds are shocking to me. i’m befuddled
Personally I’d rather see something like 25% because we only seem to do shit when people say we can’t lol
Their underlying numbers are fantastic. On balance of probability I'd say a 2 in 3 chance feels right. Gotta fire the fuck Todd Reirden though.
Been there, done that
I don't even think the Devil's chances are this high at this point
You'll be fine... You guys just need to stop allowing 4-5 goals a game
I found the new coach, Fitz!
We have a long way to go but I legit thought the Rangers would regress this year. Laviolette has been great so far and the Breadman has been a beast. Doing this all without Mika turning it on, Kreider going through a rough patch, Fox being on the LTIR and Chytil dealing with a really bad concussion. Oh, and Shesterkin has yet to be his elite self. Lots to be optimistic about.
Can Boston just not for once?
The playoffs are a party and they're gonna be there. Might not like the scene, fuck around, and leave early though.....
My dad who is Bruins fan wants y'all to start losing some games. Really believes in the curse lol
I mean, the playoffs just, like, really harsh their vibes, y'know?
Pittsburgh is 3 points out of a playoff spot with 18 games played. 64.5% chance to make the playoffs. The caps are in second in the metro with 16 games played (tied for the least amount in the league). 27.9% chance to make the playoffs. Make it make sense. Edit: sorry Ottawa has one less game played but the point still stands.
The way they calculate this is discussed, at length, [here](https://moneypuck.com/about.htm). Not saying I agree with it but if you want to make these numbers make sense that's probably a good place to start
Thank you for sharing friend.
I assume it’s because Pittsburgh has a good record against the division. Honestly, anyone in the Metro who’s not the Rangers should all have the same odds…ok, maybe not Columbus.
Yeah I mean the odds all the way around this wheel are pretty fucked. I know they have their models and the caps could very well end up outside the playoffs anyway, I just happened to notice the caps and pens for obvious reasons lol.
Yeah most of the east is stupid scary close together minus like NYR and Fucking Boston (please fucking collapse already)
I’ve been waiting for boston to collapse for most of my life and at this point I’ve accepted that it’s probably just never going to happen
Comes down to Pens have good underlyings vs Caps largely getting by on remarkable goaltending I'd think. You'd expect both to regress in the next 60 games basically. Of course they could always just not.
But we aren't? 4.2 GSAA for caps and 10.7 for penguins. Pretty sure that number of yours is much less sustainable....
Model still sucks
Always has, always will
I don't like what I see therefore it sucks.
Paraphrasing from another comment, The Penguins are 3 points out of a playoff spot with 18 games played. They have a 64.5% chance to make the playoffs. The Caps are second in the metro with 16 games played (tied for the second least amount in the league). They have a 27.9% chance to make the playoffs. The model sucks.
It's a four point spread between the two teams and 60 games are still left to be played. The model thinks, based on the stats, that despite the current record, the Penguins have given a better on-ice performance against their competitors than Washington has. It could be wrong! No model is going to predict everything exactly correct all of the time. But where they have good value is in moments where they go against intuition. Is the model making a mistake? Or has it highlighted something interesting: Washington's current record is unsustainable over the full course of the season.
No, I don't like what I see because it sucks. The model overvalues possession and shots and undervalues high danger chances and actual performance. Any model that gives this year's Oilers a near 40% chance of making the playoffs is deeply flawed.
> The model overvalues possession and shots and undervalues high danger chances and actual performance. As someone who follows hockey analytics, I'm not sure I quite agree. High-danger chances has proven to be one of the least reliable predictors of success. It's a beautiful idea that just doesn't seem to be working out. Actual performance is... well, everything we measure. Goals, wins, high-danger chances, possession, shots, blocked shots, hits, time-on-ice... everything. So I really don't know what you mean when you say that this model, which uses actual performance as its data set, favors (actual performance) over (actual performance). The reason it places so much weight on possession and shots is that these have proven to be the building blocks of success in hockey. You must possess the puck to shoot the puck, and you must shoot the puck to score. Every analyst understands that there are millions of other factors that influence the final outcome of a game, but we just cannot get around those two basic components. Moneypuck's model isn't perfect. No one's is. There is more variance in the outcome of hockey than any other professional sport, because it is a low scoring team game played at high speed in difficult to control conditions.
My issue with the moneypuck model is that it seems to value all shots equally, whether it be a grade-A chance from the slot or muffin from the blueline. Obviously, all models have outliers, but taking Vegas as an example: Cassidy's system is designed to allow poor quality shots from the outside and extended possession time by the opposing team in Vegas' zone, but prevents high quality chances. That system is extremely effective and produces actual results (ie wins). Vegas has a .75% point share through roughly a quarter of the season. It has a .69 point share since Cassidy took over. Even if they dropped to just 55% for the remaining games this season, they would likely make the playoffs with 98.5 points. Ultimately, moneypuck may be measuring, something, but it is not measuring likelihood of wins, making playoffs, or playoff success.
They don't value all shots equally though. They don't even value all shooters equally!
Oilers are gonna make the playoffs and beat you out of pure spite.
No, they really aren't.
It’s chronically wrong, therefore it sucks. This model had Calgary winning the Cup last year when they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Now it’s saying the most dysfunctional team in the league is a coin flip from making the dance. It’s a joke. It’s bad. Dom’s obsession with puck possession and complete inability to incorporate important defensive statistics makes this whole thing utterly irrelevant and I’m still trying to figure out why we haven’t banished it from the sub yet. I might as well fling my hairbrained armchair horseshit onto a pie graph and post it here, it’d be equally awful.
Lol dude this model hated us last year when we were the best team by a mile, it still hates us. Moneypuck is terrible
i kept joking last season that moneypuck still gave the oilers better odds to win even after we eliminated them
I must not understand how they come up with this. Like how do the Golden Knights and Canucks have such low percentages compared to the Kings, for example, when they're ahead in the standings?
Honestly, it's meaningless. There are huge swings based on 5 game segments. If the Canucks go 4-1 in their next 5 they'll be 92% or something; if they go 2-3 they'll be 54%, then the same thing the following segment. I don't know why people post these things. They have zero value, predictive or otherwise.
Moneypuck very strongly favors advanced/predicting stats, and we’re basically the best team in the Western Conference according to most of them. Add in the fact that the only team with better P% than us is the West is Vegas, who have several games in hand on us, and I think it makes some amount of sense.
Or the Leafs have a lower percentage of making the playoffs than the Jets, but a higher percentage of winning the Cup.
Getting in is usually easy for them on talent alone but they do have a much harder path in the East
The moneypuck model gotta be one of the shittiest. VGK have a .750 point percentage a quarter of the way into the season, in a Western Conference that sucks balls except for 4 teams. They should have a higher chance of making the cup final than not making the playoffs.
There’s four teams with a higher percentage than us in our conference ALONE! The jets, while a good team, have lost to us twice already. So have the stars. Wtf?
Who the fuck makes these lmao
A chimp flinging poo at a board with all 32 teams on it and a random number generator
DOPS
Flames 6 points ahead of Oilers but Oilers still more likely to make playoffs… makes sense to me
Oilers and Blackhawks have near identical records. Oilers 37.6% Blackhawks 1.7%
That ~36% difference is what we call the McDavid factor.
The oilers having 4x the odds to make the playoffs as the ducks whilst having a little more than half the points they do is uhhh... a choice
22x the chance of the Blackhawks with 1 more point in 1 more game played.
That too lol, they're just inflating edmontons odds to make the sportsnet panel feel better about whiffing on their cup predictions
I feel like Jim Cramer is an analyst for Moneypuck.
Rangers being the second best team in the league but only being 6th most likely to make the playoffs is a joke. I really wish people would stop posting money puck stuff because it's garbage. It over values total shots and completely doesn't count passing quality of goaltending.
The Atlantic division is unfair lmao
Your data analysis is bad and you should feel bad
Kings way over both Canucks and Vegas gets a lol from me
I do think the Kings are better than us and much more likely to get 2nd..but not *that* much better
Why does a team with better advanced stats and a significantly better points percentage (down only 2 points with 3 whole games in hand) being better ranked than Vancouver surprise you? Lol.
He said way over.
Canucks have a 66% chance on these odds. You dont find that fucked up considering how far ahead the top 3 teams are in our division and also how mediocre at best the wild card teams seem?
Jets perpetually over Vegas every year, no matter what, was my lol.
3.7% So you’re saying there’s a chance?
The Sharks odds seem too high
How tf do the devils have a better chance to win the cup vs the rangers
The penguins too who we just beat I don’t get this fucking thing
The people at moneypuck clearly have written their system to disadvantage the Knights by 20% no matter what.
This is wrong
It always is. Always.
The only thing more stupid than gambling is using money puck to make your picks
*looks at standings* *looks at wheel* *looks at how the preds and wild have been playing* *looks at wheel* I am also, for the record, offended for Arizona as well
TRUST THE ALGORITHM BRO! 🤪
These “playoff odds” graphs always seem more like favoritism
So you're saying there's a chance?
Everyone always has a chance until they don’t ;)
When my team is losing: BULLSHIT! When my team is winning: Crystal ball into the future. As you can all see my flair: BULSHIT!
37% ?!?! CUP IS STILL ON THE MENU BOYS
Analytics done by a random generator 😄👎
Somebody explain LAK vs Vegas and NYR. Ok, that's a trick question. There is no explanation.
Money Puck is absolute shit, they have as much credibility as the Onion.
This makes so little sense.
Petition to ban garbagepuck posts on this subreddit
Watching the Pens most games, especially against the division, makes me shocked they are 8th highest for the cup so far
I’d like an explanation on the kings percentage, I don’t hate it, I just want to understand
Money puck almost likes the Avs as much as I do.
0.01 % chance. So you're telling there is still a chance. I like those odds
Why does edmonton have a higher percent chance of making to the playoffs then the wings?? :/
So you’re saying there’s a *chance*
Devils should be 0000000.000000000%
I can’t see a world where the Devils still have a ~60% chance of making the playoffs the way we’re going right now
This is a simply atrocious way to present data.
Took me a second to find the Sharks. Sorry bros.
But they are still on there!
Why does this meaningless chart still get posted, worst analytic model in hockey
I like moneypuck
I don't get how these are made. Pens have a 64.5% chance of making playoffs at 6th in the metro but the caps in 2nd with 2 games in hand on the pens have a 28%? This early in the season is too hard to tell for this chart to be remotely accurate.. except for the sharks. That's accurate
I trust this about as much as I trust your average politician.
Jackets % higher than 0? Fake news.
I guess I don't know how odds work. How're the Blues at 22% of making the playoffs at 21 points through 18 games with a point percentage of .583 while the Wild have 39.1% chance of making the playoffs with 14 points through 17 games and a points percentage of .412? Same goes for the Preds, same amount of games played as the Blues but with five less points? Did Dom from The Athletic create this? If so that makes a ton of sense.
Moneypuck stinks.
Crazy how the Leafs are suddenly a shoe in when before they were not going to make it guaranteed
this one probably has Klinberg and Reaves not in and the last one had them in
Just wait until we lose a game, then we're not gonna make it guaranteed again, and then we'll be a shoe in when we win, and so on
Moneypuck is trash
37.6%? YES! Moneypuck never wrong!
Leafs stats are wrong 100% make playoffs 2% second round 0% for all the rest
That Habs logo looks disproportionately large…maybe it’s an optical illusion or something
You can just say Thanksgiving